Peter Riva's Blog, page 6
July 30, 2014
The Proof of the Putin is in the Ukraine
Date: July 26, 2014
Pressure is mounting on Putin to both take responsibility for his actions as
well as give back that which he has annexed. It is not likely to happen
peacefully.
Let’s look at a map. Please, find a map and look carefully. See the size of
Russia? Eight time zones, from the Pacific to two seas on Russia’s western
border, from the Arctic all the way south to Mongolia, China and Iran.
Natural resources? Approximately 35% of the world’s gas reserves, 15% of the
world’s known oil reserves. And then there are rare minerals, coal, iron,
aluminum, titanium, copper and on and on. It is a rich, under-exploited
land.
During his first time as President, Putin went after any of Russia’s richest
(oligarchs) who would not follow his orders for his plan for rebuilding
Russia. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was his principle target and, in short order,
he stripped Khodorkovsky of all his money, his position as head of one of
the largest oil and gas companies, and then jailed him. The other oligarchs
quickly fell into line. They now follow his every whim, setting gas and oil
prices, muscling his foes, putting pressure on nations as he directs. It is
as if all the commercial enterprises of the USA were at the command of the
President, “If you don’t do as I say, I’ll close every MacDonalds in France,
ground every Boeing.” That sort of power.
Crimea? That was a simple matter of making the Russian Navy generals and
their retired servicemen happy. For decades Crimea has been Russia’s Florida
for retiring service personnel. They whined they were worried their
retirement payments were going to be taxed again if Ukraine joined up with
the European Union (EU), so he came up with his version of the Monroe
Doctrine (“Mother Russia can protect Russians anywhere”) and simply invaded,
annexed, Crimea back into Russia. Think he’ll give it back? Not on your
life. To do that would destabilize his relations with his Navy admirals.
Their loyalty is critical to his powerbase. He can bully oligarchs, he
cannot bully the military. He has to placate the military.
Ukraine’s eastern borders? Russian Generals have a similar problem there.
Many of the Russian farmers, families and retirees from Russia’s military
live and work in eastern Ukraine. They do not want EU taxation, welfare,
rules and loyalties. They have leverage within the Russian sphere, none
within Europe and certainly not NATO. The western Russian regions are
controlled by three generals and their armies, the very same armies NATO
prepared for conflict with in Germany. Tank battles, missiles, troops.
Russia’s armies may have largely stood down but that does not mean Putin
wants to appear weak, he needs their loyalty, he needs their strength in
order to maintain power. When those Generals tell him they need to protect
Russians, he is forced (and probably wants to) unleash their forces from
within Russia to support “separatists.” Separatists my eye. Missile
batteries? You bet. Artillery fired from within Russia? You bet. And more to
come. Did Russian technicians and Russian-trained men fire and bring down
the jetliner? Sure. Putin’s response and that of his generals is that the
airliner should not have been there (true) and that the loss of life is
regrettable. End of his interest.
The world doesn’t want this kind of tyrannical, out-of-step with capitalist
world-development, behavior. Sanctions are being levied. On whom? His
oligarchs, who will be financially harmed for sure, but they are unlikely to
believe they can sway or overthrow Putin. They saw the example of
Khodorkovsky. A European court decision ruling Russia must refund billions
he stripped from Khodorkovsky is unlikely to even be met with a statement
from the Kremlin. Sanction against the military? These are old hard-liners.
Any sanctions levied against them will be seen as strengthening their will.
Unless the West understands the siege of Stalingrad, we will never
understand that will, that ability to sacrifice, that core fortitude.
Strangely, the weakest part of Putin’s hold on Russia comes from the air
force. It is notable that the Russian air force has not been seen over
Crimea or Ukraine. The day we see them supporting Putin’s forays into old
Soviet territory is the day the West better sit up and pay attention. Only
then will we know he has complete control. This doesn’t mean the air force
will not defend Russia, but action on now-foreign soil is clearly not in
their current interest or else you would have seen air superiority displays
in celebration over Crimea and that jetliner would not have been attacked if
Russia jets had been in the air, in harm’s way. So watch the Russian air
force, that’ll be you next clue as to what Putin can get away with.
