Michael Offutt's Blog, page 105

Is the Fitbit IPO too late to the party or is it the next Tesla?

Fitbit is going public on Thursday. As a tech IPO, it has one of the best balance sheets Wall Street has seen in years, because it's actually profitable . I know that sounds funny to those of you out there that don't invest, but there are a lot of companies that have gone public that don't make money (here's looking at you twitter...) And it should also worry you just a wee bit.

I've been seeing the Fitbit wristbands everywhere except maybe on my own wrist. I guess I'm just not in the mood to get very "fit." But I am interested in these kinds of things, and I wonder what the shelf life for Fitbit actually is. I mean, technology lives and dies seemingly within a year (anyone remember the Zune?). Apple has the Apple Watch now which does everything that the Fitbit does. And well, it's Apple, which is a juggernaut in anything it dips its fingers into.

I wonder if Fitbit will end up being like Motorolla. Motorolla was the pre-eminent manufacturer of cell phones in the late 90's. I remember the flip-style phone called the Motorolla Razor, which everyone just had to have because it was so thin. Then Apple put out its iPhone and destroyed Nokia, Motorolla, and Blackberry like they were nothing.

Maybe Fitbit will survive among those who just hate Apple and/or who don't want to spend all the money to procure an Apple Watch. In that case, my prediction for the stock will be for it to go public, quickly double before trade even opens up, and then the founders of the company (once the moratorium on selling stock passes) will be able to sell all their stock dumping it out onto the market to make themselves billionaires. And then Fitbit will slowly decline as people realize all the smart money pumped and dumped and then fled a sinking ship.

As a side note I wish I could come up with an idea, go public with it, and then get all my money out of it by dumping it on unsuspecting investors before it goes bust. Sure, I'd be a sleazeball capitalist, but I really wouldn't care driving around in my 30 sports cars.

But I could always be wrong. Anyone else own a Fitbit and care to educate me differently on how awesome it is and how it will be around for the next ten years? Only time will tell if the Fitbit IPO is the next Tesla, right?

With regard to that ending on Game of Thrones last night I don't think Jon Snow is permanently dead

Oh the cliffhangers and the endings. Everyone knows by now that Martin loves to kill off characters. Jon Snow died in A Dance With Dragons, and yes it happened at the end of the book. I was wondering if the show was going to end there and sure enough it did. But here's why I think Jon Snow's death is going to be different than all of the other deaths in the show:
1) The men of the night's watch swear vows, and the only thing that can release them is death. During burial, the men of the night's watch send off a brother by saying the words, "...and now his watch is ended." Jon Snow was Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, and not Stannis Baratheon or anyone else was going to cause him to derail his vows. The only reason he allowed himself to deviate from them with Ygritte was because he was trying to blend in as a wildling so he could get close to Mance Raydar. With his death, he is released from the vows and free to be king if he could just come back from the dead.
2) And about that pesky "death" thing...Melisandre of Ashai is probably going to resurrect Jon. Earlier in the series, they came across another priest of R'hllor named Thoros who had the ability to resurrect Beric Dondarrion over and over. These two priests are powerful and admittedly, they see the practice of their religion in entirely different light. However, their magic comes from the same source, a.k.a., the Lord of Light, and I think Melisandre is going to raise Jon so that he can become "Azor Ahai Reborn."
3) Azor Ahai Reborn comes from a prophecy that is told to us through the lips of Melisandre. She says, "I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R'hllor shows me only snow." Hmm. That's interesting, don't you think?
4) The smartass author George R.R. Martin responded to a question about Jon Snow with this remark: "Oh you think he's dead do you?" I think this pretty much means that the character is going to come back with a vengeance.

5) The rumor mill on the internet says that Kit Harrington's contract has been renewed for seasons 6 and 7 (the last season). Hmm. I wonder why they would do that?
Sure, it's just a theory, but do any of you who've read the books and saw last night's episode actually believe that Jon Snow is dead and joins the rest of the "dead" characters littering the series? I think Martin's going for a twist here. By now we expect characters to die. It's time we saw one survive.

The system keeps the majority of us in socio-economic bondage with the illusion of free choice when all you really can choose between are differing degrees of terrible.

Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman had an article in The New York Times on Wednesday talking about the Wal-Mart wage increase. Specifically, he went over how a wage increase hadn't impacted Wal-Mart's bottom line all that much, which was a surprise to many people. Using math, Krugman outlined how this was possible and to his credit, he basically predicted that a minimum wage increase would hardly be noticed by companies that work at peak efficiency. He used an anecdote that went something like this: "If you are on top of a hill and you take one step to either side, your elevation doesn't change all that much." Of course rising out of his analysis is a conclusion: people who oppose a wage increase for minimum wage workers (to make a living wage) are not basing their arguments in fact. Rather, they are a part of the systemic problem of keeping people in socio-economic bondage.

The idea of socio-economic bondage is new to me, but I've been thinking about it for a couple of days now. The United States touts itself as "Land of the Free," but are we really free? Take for example a post I recently saw on Facebook. It regarded a youth that came home from his mission (this is an LDS thing) and "came out" to his parents as gay. The parents disowned the young man and told him he had to move out and live on his own if he were going to pursue this lifestyle. The young man in this case was obviously upset as were many people on Facebook calling the parents "unloving" and any number of awful things (which I mostly agree with but digresses from my point). And what is my point? It's simple: Americans do a disservice to one another and to their children by encouraging the idea that "You are free to be whatever you want to be." I think a more accurate statement would be, "You are born into bondage, and the only way in which you can truly be free to do what you want is to acquire money...lots of it...to buy/purchase your freedom. Until such time as you are able to do so, you will always be beholding to someone else's rules, laws, and convictions. You will not be free to choose. Not if you want to survive."

But this brings into mind (I want to borrow Al Gore's own words here) an "Inconvenient Truth." Or maybe more accurately, an uncomfortable truth. The only people in our society that are "truly free" to be what they want to be and to do what they want to do with unlimited choices are the very rich. Money = Freedom of Choice to me. It's not about buying happiness, but about buying freedom. John Goodman put it not so eloquently as the right to say "F*ck you!" to anyone in the remake of "The Gambler." That's what 2.5 million dollars gives you...the right to say "f*ck you." And I don't need to be an economist to realize that this is true.

Polite society is cloaked in euphemisms to avoid uncomfortable truths. At work, I have this thing called an "annual performance evaluation" done by a manager that I presume has either convinced himself or has convinced others of his ability to toe-the-line. But really the whole thing should just be renamed. How about "annual systemic reminder of your socio-economic bondage?" Anyone that has ever had a performance evaluation should realize that it's a means to check "performance" for any places you might be coming up short with the idea that there's some kind of punishment for non-compliance, i.e., you could lose your job. A delusional person might say, "I'm free to make that choice. I'm free to be homeless if I choose to be." But let's not mince words, that isn't much of a choice and everyone knows that.

I'm going to conclude my thoughts in that I don't feel there's any way to change this system. I'm also part of the system just like many other people. And yes, I identify myself as one of the many million that exist in socio-economic bondage every day. Am I free to choose? I suppose that if you mean I can choose between things that are less terrible then yes. As Tyrion Lannister said to Daenerys, there is the right and wrong kind of terrible. But I don't think I shall ever look at things quite the same way anymore. Much of the troubles that we have in society are because all of us exist in bondage. However, only a few can truly be free. If everyone was free...well that's called anarchy and anarchy doesn't work.

The U.S. Navy's prototype laser cannon is 750 times more powerful than this guy's laser shotgun and that's scary as hell.

YouTuber styropyro built a hand-held Death Star using eight 5W lasers, mounted with parallel beams onto a giant heatsink normally found in a custom-built computer, and powered with a large battery. This thing is capable of bursting balloons, setting fire to wood, and other such destructive nonsense.

Think of this...
And then watch the video for this...
And you now can contemplate the destructive power of that battle station! Errr...I digress...

So back to real life. Now the U.S. Navy's prototype laser cannon that's mounted on a warship and capable of shooting down drones is 30,000 watts. So watch the video I have embedded below (for your viewing pleasure!) and then you'll realize how powerful the U.S. Navy's laser actually is. Forty watt versus 30,000 watt. Let the destruction commence.

Is true heroism from one of the troubled characters in Game of Thrones the actual fantasy element?

It is difficult for me to understand the mind of Stannis Baratheon. Sure, he's been manipulated and backed into a corner by circumstance and fear and preyed on by the likes of Melisande of Ashai (who admittedly appears to be the real deal since she's capable of feats of real dark magic). However, that he could arrive at the decision to burn his own daughter Shireen alive as a sacrifice to R'hllor so that his men could march on Winterfell is beyond insane. And as Patrick Dilloway tweeted to me, it's also an act that is pretty low even for Game of Thrones.

Earlier this season Stannis seemed like the kind of man all of us readers and watchers out here could root for. He's trying to do what's right by taking the Iron Throne as he is the natural successor to it. He's also shown great military leadership in going north to the wall when the watchers on the wall felt that they were in a very dire circumstance. But to go from the empathy that he expressed for his daughter in a very touching scene at Castle Black to marching his daughter to the funeral pyre...that was awful to watch and heartbreaking too.

It leaves me questioning: why is the Iron Throne worth this kind of price? And all this act of sacrifice is going to do anyway is maybe allow him to take Winterfell (if Melisandre follows through with the claims that R'hllor will deliver the victory to him). Then what? We have a warden of the north that none of the clans will respect because he torched his own daughter and follows the biddings of a witch?

It's a stark contrast to what Tyrion Lannister said to Daenerys Targaryen last week. "To kill those who are devoted to you does not inspire devotion."

I should say that this is yet another scene that I haven't read as it's probably in the "to be released" edition of "The Winds of Winter." Honestly, at this point no matter what Stannis does to please R'hllor, I think he is unsuited for rulership and any kingdom he did rule would just be under the thumb of another tyrant. I suppose that says something more about me than it does anything else. I feel like the iron throne should go to a true hero. I wonder why I even think that. Is it because it's some kind of reward, because it sure looks like a kind of curse, considering the bitter politics involved in seizing it.

What do you think? Do you want the iron throne to go to a hero? Or is true heroism from one of these troubled characters actually the fantasy in Game of Thrones? That would be brilliant right? George R. R. Martin laughing at all of us and saying, "The true fantasy is real life in that there are no heroes. You can populate the world with dragons, magic, and white walkers, but if you're true to life there are no heroes except in literature."

No one can make you feel inferior without your consent so don't ever give it.

Recently, my mother's health took a turn for the worse. She got severely dehydrated and is now in a care center where she's being "rehabilitated." This week she gets to come home, and we are excited about this prospect. My experience with the private world of care centers though has definitely been negative. The few times I've visited mom there (she is in another state so I have to take time off of work to travel) I've been very disappointed at what we've been getting for the price of $8,000 a month. For this huge amount of money, the meals that I fed my mom via spoon included essentially tilapia, sloppy joes, and mac and cheese. All of these are cheap cheap meals. My dad has been feeding her twice a day for a while now, going diligently to the care center to spoon food into my mom's mouth. She's gained some strength, can talk now when she wants to, and when I was there just over a week ago, she cleaned her plate (and I mean she ate everything).

Well a few days ago the care center called and said they wanted to put mom on a feeding tube. Absolutely not. No way. You know why they asked this? Because they are lazy. They don't want to feed mom. It's not part of the $8,000 a month. I just am flabbergasted. I can't say how angry our aging health care system makes me. I wanted to drive up there, haul those nurses out into the parking lot, and beat them with a rod. They are crooks, the whole lot of them, who just want to get by with the bare minimum effort and get paid handsomely for it until a person dies.

I'm so glad mom is going to be able to come home, where I've made the house she's used to living in handicap accessible by getting a ramp installed. I've also hired a full-time care provider that will be attentive (singularly) to mom's dietary needs and who will feed mom (by spoon not tube) specially prepared dishes that mirror what she is used to eating (my mom is Japanese). None of that cheap mac and cheese crap and the cheapest ground beef mixed with Manwich.

My mom has lived a long and difficult life, and it angers me that there are vultures just circling in the healthcare system that want to rob old people of all the money and resources they've accumulated in a lifetime. My telling that care center "absolutely not" on the feeding tube reminds me of a quote from Eleanor Roosevelt: "No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." My mom survived Tokyo being fire bombed in World War 2. She survived moving to a foreign country where she knew no one and was expected to raise a family around strangers a world away from her two brothers. And this is how it's supposed to end? With a feeding tube stuck down her throat, wearing a diaper that's full of crap because the nurses only change the diaper twice a day at specified times, and in a wheelchair under a flickering fluorescent light bulb? This is what $8,000.00 a month buys? Are you f'ing kidding me? It's highway robbery, and the people that own this care center drive expensive cars and live like the 1% live everywhere. It's such bullshit.

Maybe you can take that quote and make something of it. Maybe it's applicable to this month's Insecure Writer's Support group. No one can make any of us feel inferior without consent. So don't ever give consent. Force people to be accountable and expose the con artists in any industry who are trying to exploit honest, hard working people (whether it be in publishing or in health care). Report fraud, fight back with lawsuits, and don't ever be anyone else's doormat. And if you possibly can, stand up for someone else that doesn't have the means to defend themselves anymore.

The Night's King raised all the dead in Hardhome and delivered the most chilling episode of Game of Thrones yet

Game of Thrones just had its obligatory "White Walker" episode, and I actually wasn't expecting it. Jon Snow arrived at Hardhome, the place where the wildlings decided to hole up to see if they could survive while someone, somewhere came up with a real plan? Even with circumstances as desperate as they were, many of the wildlings still threw Jon Snow's offer of safe harbor south of the wall back into his teeth.

That (of course) was what happened before the White Walkers showed up. I have to say, the howl of the winds raised goose pimples on my arms (I have a decent surround sound system). Preceded by a ghostly blizzard that kind of dropped off the bluffs and cliffs surrounding the bay in which thousands of people had gathered, a zombie army that was worthy of a season finale for The Walking Dead assaulted the wildlings desperately trying to escape into the bay where ships waited to take them south.

Oh and one of my theories about Valyrian steel came true tonight. I'd hypothesized that valyrian steel could kill a white walker the same as dragon glass in a blog post I made some time ago. We haven't seen this in the books, but that little plot detail was revealed when Jon Snow became the second man on earth to end a White Walker.
To those of you who watched last night's episode, did it seem to you that there was some kind of weird connection between Jon Snow and the Night's King (the White Walker that raised all of the dead in Hardhome at once)? I don't know what's going on with that, but it almost seemed like the Night's King was staring him down as if it were showing Jon that he belonged with them.

Maybe I'm reading too much into the show, but I don't think any of that was coincidence. Given the Night's King's dubious background (he was probably a former "Commander of the Night's Watch") I'm tempted to think that Jon Snow may be destined to join the side of evil at some point. Good lord would that be awful.

Seeing non-human cartoon characters depicted as human is an interesting social experiment with regard to race and culture

Over on a website called Dorkly, there's a series of pictures done by an artist who draws with a very "anime"-esque style of popular "non-human" cartoon characters depicted as humans. Other than the fact that this was very effective "click bait" as I started scrolling through them, I realized that not only were these not matching up with what I would envision these characters to look like but how many of them were caucasian/white (when I thought they might be otherwise). You can go and inspect the full slide show yourself by following this link. Some are drawn by the same artist and you can get the artist name from the website in a link under the picture to find out more about them.
This is artist Chacckco's vision of Lightning McQueen from "Cars"
Here's Wall-E and Eve from Pixar's "Wall-E" A very "Christian Grey" Bugs Bunny. So weird. Anyway, I'd be interested to see what you think. If you have the time, go check out the link and tell me if the characters depicted match up with what you envision these characters to look like in your head. If anything, it's an interesting social experiment with regards to race and culture.

Japanese Darth Maul is the action figure all of us Star Wars geeks have been waiting for.

I'm not going to even remotely suggest that I'm the only guy out there that thought Darth Maul with his blazing lightsaber was the coolest thing ever. Sure, the big reveal of the double-ended lightsaber happened more than 15 years ago and spawned hundreds of YouTube videos of people using double-bladed lightsabers in their own mini-movies. However, there's never been an action figure that I seriously wanted to own...not until now that is.

Square-Enix's Play Arts Kai line now includes the most awesome Darth Maul figure ever. Seriously, just check out these pictures. Also, note how even in a neutral pose, the flowing robes are just badass.


Cool? You can click to "Embiggen."

In a Flash-tacular season finale we got showered with Easter eggs from all of the CW's insane plans for their DC universe

Spoiler Alert: I'm going to be talking about the season finale of The Flash. If you haven't watched it, you probably don't want to read any further.

The first 80% of this week's season finale for The Flash had Barry hmm'ing and haww'ing over whether or not he should actually go back in time to save his mother or just let her die. I get that it was a big decision. However, it made for bad television. Thankfully, the last 20% of the show was FANTASTIC and the Speed Force scene (as Barry takes the plunge back into time)? It's full of Easter eggs for future stuff that's already been filmed or is in the works. In the video made by Youtuber Wild Jr, he slows down the frames so you can actually see what's going on in the whole tunneling effect of traveling back in time (eat your heart out Marty McFly).

First up on the left you see Barry moving in with the West family. This is nothing special in and of itself because we have already seen that happening. Then on the right appears Dr. Caitlyn Snow as Killer Frost. Here's what she looks like:
As you may or may not know, in September 2013 Killer Frost appeared on the cover of Forever Evil #1, and she was part of the storyline. In it, Dr. Caitlin Snow is a scientist sent to S.T.A.R. Labs Outpost #72 in the arctic to work on a thermodynamic engine whose creator committed suicide, and she soon discovers the place has been infiltrated by H.I.V.E. agents. When they tried to kill her inside the engine, she frantically rips off the coolant system merging her body with the ice. Transformed into a heat vampire, she continues to search for other sources of heat, which inevitably leads to her discovering that Ronnie (Firestorm) can blast her with heat (Ronnie is Caitlyn's husband) and temporarily heal her condition. I can only guess that Eddie Thawne killing himself has changed everything. S.T.A.R. Labs is probably operated by the real Harrison Wells now, and the Flash's entire history is going to change now. So it's going to be like this entire season never happened.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, the Flash's storyline is pure insanity to follow.

Okay, more Easter eggs from the video. We got a look at "The Flash" museum, a look at Barry as a prisoner in Iron Heights with his father, Henry Allen, visiting him instead of the other way around, a portion from the Legends of Tomorrow trailer, the night Nora Allen died, and Jay Garrick's Flash helmet. Jay Garrick was the first Flash in the Golden Age & during World War 2. Jay is from the parallel universe of Earth 2 and has never existed in Barry's universe.

So if you made it this far, you probably watch the show. What did you think of season one?

I won't be blogging Monday as it's a holiday. Sorry I was absent Wednesday, but I just wasn't feeling good and wasn't up to blogging. Have a good long weekend.