Peter L. Berger's Blog, page 503

Spirituality Isn’t Going Away

Even as fewer Americans profess a strong religious affiliation, more are describing a sense of metaphysical wonder about the universe. From Pew:

Americans have become less religious in recent years by standard measures such as how important they say religion is to them and their frequency of religious service attendance and prayer. But, at the same time, the share of people across a wide variety of religious identities who say they often feel a deep sense of spiritual peace and well-being as well as a deep sense of wonder about the universe has risen.

… The rise in spirituality has been happening among both highly religious people and the religiously unaffiliated.

The Pew numbers provide still more evidence that, as we’ve written before, “human beings feel instinctively that the visible reality that we live in day to day is connected to something larger and more mysterious.” In 21st-century America, as “cultural Catholicism” decays, and as the organizational and doctrinal foundations of liberal Protestantism fade into the ether, that feeling is becoming increasingly disconnected from traditional religious institutions. Instead, it’s being expressed through different channels, like spirituality, superstition, and even, in some ways, secular liberal politics.

For those of us who think organized religion is good for America’s social and cultural life, the decline in religious affiliation is clearly less than ideal. But we can take heart that it’s not giving way to pure non-belief, either. The big question, going forward, is whether this continued, and even increasing, interest in spirituality will reconnect itself to religious institutions as Millennials start families, Boomers age, and churches attempt to find new ways of speaking to and reaching unaffiliated Americans, or whether that interest will remain unmoored.

Yergin to Saudis: You Can’t Kill Shale

Famed energy guru Daniel Yergin was heard touting shale’s resilience at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. In his comments, Yergin conceded that American shale producers are facing a dismal 2016 as they struggle to stay profitable at a time when crude is trading just above $30 per barrel. But he made the point that the logistics and economics of fracking make the shale industry more likely quickly to rebound when the global glut is eventually absorbed. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes for the Telegraph:

Daniel Yergin, founder of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said it is impossible for OPEC to knock out the US shale industry though a war of attrition even if it wants to, and even if large numbers of frackers fall by the wayside over coming months.

“The management may change and the companies may change but the resources will still be there,” he told the Daily Telegraph. The great unknown is how quickly the industry can revive once the global glut starts to clear – perhaps in the second half of the year – but it will clearly be much faster than for the conventional oil.“It takes $10bn and five to ten years to launch a deep-water project. It takes $10m and just 20 days to drill for shale,” he said, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

U.S. shale production is one of the key contributors to the oversupply in today’s oil market, but the dual technologies that set off the boom—hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well-drilling—make for relatively expensive operations when it comes to per barrel costs. As such, most analysts expected American output to drop significantly in the face of falling prices. This expectation likely helped form the Saudi strategy of coercing OPEC into not scaling back production, under the thinking that these smaller U.S. shale producers would be forced by market conditions to make the necessary cuts themselves—cuts that would eventually send prices back up.

That hasn’t happened exactly in the way the Saudis expected, in large part because of the shale industry’s remarkable inventiveness and its ability to find new ways to cut costs and boost efficiency. But it remains the case that $30 oil isn’t sustainable for much of America’s shale industry, and we are likely to see overall U.S. output continue to taper off in the coming months.Yergin’s point is nevertheless well-taken. Fracking may be more expensive to produce per barrel, but, as he points out, its start-up costs are lower. If and when prices start to go back up, it will be small, nimble shale producers—not oil majors or petrostates operating conventional plays—who will be able to get back on the horse the fastest. You can bankrupt a company, but you cannot kill a resource. The development of fracking technology, a technology that will only get better and cheaper, is driving a long-term change in the way oil markets work.

Anywhere But France, Please

Even if you’re an immigrant escaping poverty in Africa or war in Syria, there’s apparently one place you don’t want to wind up: France. The Financial Times reports:

From his freezing polythene and wooden shack on an icy verge in Calais’ migrant camp, Ahmed has a commanding view of the sparkling white containers the French government has provided for the growing population.

The draught-proof, heated units are arranged in two-storey rows in a gravelled compound, complete with electricity and a green perimeter fence for security. Bunks are fitted with new mattresses and clean, crisp sheets.But Ahmed, who arrived in Calais’ so-called Jungle migrant camp after a year-long journey from his native Darfur region in Sudan, says he has no intention of accepting the government’s hospitality because he thinks there is a catch.“There is a problem with that place,” says the 28-year-old, stretching an arm and pointing to the containers about 20 yards away. “If I accept to go there, they will take my details and when I go to England, the authorities will tell me that I have to return to live in France.”

And so do thousands of others like him. Meanwhile, until last week only 19 residents of the Jungle had taken the French up on their offer of asylum. The FT cites a variety of reasons that migrants and refugees won’t stay in la belle France: language difficulties, anti-immigrant sentiment, and a slow, sclerotic asylum system with a low success rate (which native French may not see as a flaw). But one reason looms above them all: the poor state of the French economy.

This is a timely reminder that what we’re seeing is actually the collision of two civilizations in crisis. It’s all well and good to say the newcomers aren’t entitled to French jobs, but what about the French youth and the residents of the banlieues, who are legally welcome but economically excluded? It’s bad news for France when even semi-literate illegal migrants see that the French system isn’t a good bet for the future.

Will These Be the Olympics from Hell?

An outbreak of the mosquito-borne Zika virus is complicating Brazil’s plans for what already looked likely to be a pretty disastrous Summer Olympics. The BBC:

Inspections of Olympic facilities will begin four months before the Games to get rid of mosquito breeding grounds.

Daily sweeps will also take place during the Games.But fumigation would only be an option on a case-by-case basis because of concerns for the health of the athletes and visitors.

First, we had an IOC official saying, as paraphrased by the IOC, that the planning was “the worst I have experienced.” Then, the money dried up as Brazil’s economy crashed. Next, rowers fell sick in the rehearsal games last summer and now, the Zika virus threatens to scare the tourists away, with pregnant women being advised by Western agencies to stay out of the country lest a mosquito bite end in a birth defect.

Brazilians are great improvisors and, despite the worries of skeptics, the World Cup went well, so it’s possible they’ll figure this all out. But as we get closer to the opening ceremony, the bad news just keeps coming.

India to Help Vietnam Spy on China

India has announced it will build a satellite monitoring site that will allow Vietnam to surveil the South China Sea and the Chinese mainland. Reuters:

While billed as a civilian facility – earth observation satellites have agricultural, scientific and environmental applications – security experts said improved imaging technology meant the pictures could also be used for military purposes.

Hanoi especially has been looking for advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technologies as tensions rise with China over the disputed South China Sea, they said.

As a global power, India has typically been more flexible in its stance on China than, say, Japan and the United States would like it to be. Keeping somewhat more neutral in disputes with China has ensured India has options, and a better bargaining position in general. Yet, particularly over the past year, India has moved more decisively to ally itself with China’s rivals, like Japan. Increasingly, it’s looking like these developments may indicate a gradual shift in policy. We’ll keep watching closely to see they continue.

Detroit’s Teacher Union Meltdown

Last week, Detroit’s teachers called a “sick-out”—a coordinated action wherein the unionized teachers call in sick simultaneously in what is best characterized as a strike—for at least the fifth time in the last few weeks. Strikes by public sector employees are illegal in Michigan (“A public employee shall not strike and a public school employer shall not institute a lockout,” the relevant state law reads), so the teachers’s actions have prompted the Detroit School District’s emergency manager to request that the state Court of Appeals explicitly declare them illegal. A ruling is expected later today.

On one level, the teachers are grousing about the horrid state of Detroit’s public schools. MLive:

They [the teachers’s complaints] include claims of low pay, sparse textbooks, large classes, poor benefits and facilities that pose a health risk or adverse learning environment. There have been claims of rodent infestations, black mold, lack of heat, warped gym floors and leaky roofs.

However, a deeper point of contention appears to be with how these problems should be addressed:

Governor Tim Snyder’s proposed plan calls for moving current Detroit schools to a newly created school district. The old Detroit Public Schools would continue to exist solely as a mechanism to pay of the old debt [. . .]

The teacher’s union has put out a plan of its own. It calls for a restoration of local power, the return of failing schools that were placed in Snyder’s state-chartered Education Achievement Authority and is almost entirely at odds with the governor’s plan, except for it too calls for the state to pay the District’s debt.

In short, the teachers want Lansing to pay Detroit’s debts, and yet let the same people who torched the city keep running things. They are right that conditions in Detroit schools are unacceptable, but at the same time, it is unreasonable to accept that people who don’t actually live in Detroit should just pay up without having some say in how the money is spent.

If public unions can’t accept that reality, and if they continue to respond to it the way Detroit teachers have done, with an illegal strike, then those unions should probably brace themselves for a rash of Scott Walker-like laws limiting the power of public unions.Real relief for real reform is the only possible way to deal with the problems that have already hit cities like Flint and Detroit, to say nothing of municipalities like Puerto Rico. And more candidates for fiscal crisis are just over the horizon: The next recession could see a long line of cities and even states—yes, Illinois, that means you—standing in the bailout line.Thinking through the nuts and bolts of just how these kinds of programs get implemented needs to be a major priority for think tanks, both liberal and conservative. A hard-pressed governor and legislature are not going to have a lot of time when trouble hits. The Flint water disaster shows how full of pitfalls the situation can be when fiscal failure forces a city to turn to outsiders.Perhaps even consultancy groups like McKinsey can start to get in on the act: Assisting states wrestling with failed, blue model cities could be a major growth industry.

13,000 Beards Shaved in Tajikistan to Fight Radicalism

Determined to stamp out Islamic fundamentalism, the government of Tajikistan has taken forcibly to shaving its citizens’s beards, among other outlandish measures. The Washington Post reports:

In a bid to curb Islamist radicalization, authorities in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan shaved the beards off nearly 13,000 men in the country. They also shut down about 160 shops selling traditional Islamic garb and supposedly “convinced” more than 1,700 women to stop wearing hijabs, or head coverings

[. . . ]The secular regime of President Imomali Rakhmon is known for its hard-line opposition to political Islam. From 1992 to 1997, Tajikistan endured a bitter civil war between government forces loyal to Rakhmon and an Islamist opposition. Estimates suggest that 50,000 to 100,000 people were killed.

This is not a sign that things are trending in the right direction. The potential for radical jihadi groups to destabilize Central Asia, where many states are still fragile and others are under tight dictatorial lockdown, keeps both Russian and Chinese officials awake at night. And with millions of migrants from these countries living in Russia, the threat of jihadi ideology is very real.

One can sympathize with the worried authorities, but forcibly shaving off beards and closing those clothing stores seems more like a gesture than a policy. You can’t change what goes on inside someone’s head by shaving a beard or banning a hijab.

Argentina to Pay Back “Vulture” Creditors

Tell the world’s bankers to open the door: Argentina wants to come back in from the cold. The Financial Times reports:

In a bid to end a bitter legal dispute that has effectively barred the country from international capital markets since 2001, Alfonso Prat-Gay, finance minister, told a panel [at Davos] that Argentina would honour the face value of debts owed to the US hedge fund holdouts while seeking to negotiate the costs of accumulated interest.

“We want to put an offer on the table,” Mr Prat-Gay said, adding that Argentina was offering 120 cents on each dollar owed.The problem, he said was that the creditors, including Elliott Management, were asking for 350 cents on the dollar, which had spiralled due to accumulated interest payments over the past decade on certain loans.

In this context, a mediator from the U.S. will coordinate a February sit-down with the Argentina and the country’s creditors—and that’s not all the U.S. is doing. Reuters:

The United States is ending its policy of opposing most lending to Argentina from multilateral development banks, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew informed Argentine Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay of the move on Thursday when the two met in Davos, Switzerland, the department said in a statement. It said the United States will consider each Argentinian project on its own merits.

This is going to be a painful deal for Argentina. In addition to the around $30 billion owed to restructured creditors (who swallowed a haircut of around 30 cents on the dollar), the Argentines owe around $1.7 billion to the holdouts—a substantial combined burden considering that Argentine currency reserves are currently floating around $30 billion. And it is currently illegal in Argentina—where the Peronist opposition still controls Congress—to pay the holdout creditors more than the bondholders who accepted restructuring. But the presence of a key Peronist leader in Davos with Macri suggests that the frustration with Argentina’s lack of access to international capital may carry the day.

More problematic: it’s a tough time in the world economy, with commodity prices down, the China bubble still deflating, and Brazil, a major Argentine trading partner, in trouble. Then there’s the mess that the outgoing Fernandez de Kirchner Administration left Macri. A mysterious fire at the Argentine Finance Ministry—at least the fifth such “mysterious” conflagration (often deadly) at a government finance center—conveniently destroyed years of records days after CFK found out her party had lost power. And the fire is not a bad metaphor for what she did to the country’s finances, either.So Macri has a lot of rebuilding to do. This is a major, painful, and necessary step in the right direction, and good access to international finance will help them ease the pain. The U.S. should be on the lookout to do all we can to help.

Nothing So Permanent As Temporary Measures

Citing an emergency measure never used before, a German government official told the elites assembled at Davos on Thursday that Berlin may keep border controls in place for up to two years. The Times (of London) reports:

Thomas de Maizière, the German interior minister, said that he could see no end to the temporary controls put in place at the border with Austria in September to check for genuine asylum seekers. The measures were supposed to continue only until March.

It was another blow to the Schengen system of free travel between 26 nations. Austria announced on Wednesday that it would cap migrant numbers at 37,500 this year. Angela Merkel has refused to follow suit, and is sticking by her commitment to welcome all eligible asylum seekers, despite mounting calls from across the German political spectrum to introduce quotas.Mr de Maizière’s words suggest that Germany will apply to extend controls for two years; an emergency provision in the rules which has never before been used. The provision has always been viewed as a point of no return for Schengen — which ended passport checks on Europe’s internal national borders in 1986 — because it will probably prompt other nations to follow suit and entrench border checks.

Looks like the Europeans are starting to follow the TAI line of thinking on the Turkish deal that was supposed to stop all this:

The German decision comes amid a growing belief that Greece and Turkey will be unable to stem the flow of migrants when numbers begin to increase again in March. The milder spring weather makes sea crossings and travel on the Balkans route easier.

So the “temporary” measures may be extended—to the point where they will, de facto, be the new permanent reality.

In a way, this makes sense. The EU’s governing logic has increasingly emphasized the need to use each crisis to achieve closer integration; this is something Brussels has relied more and more on since the series of crises starting with the financial crash in 2008. But this method has had increasingly diminishing returns—the euro, for instance, is still not truly fixed. This time around, the lack of planning and true consensus may cause unacceptable costs:

“If Schengen in this form were to be destroyed now, and the European Union massively endangered, then I would worry about a chain reaction which would not stop at the euro. The whole shebang would go up in the air,” said Anton Börner, head of the BGA German trade federation.

As French PM Manuel Valls put it even more bluntly, the EU could “die” if it doesn’t figure out immigration. For as things stand right now, Schengen cannot be left open, either.

Visionary leadership and sound diplomacy will be needed if Europe is to thread this needle. A muddle, sadly, is more likely—limping along until the next crisis—which would save more face for European leaders, but cause more pain all around.

Hollande Goes to India

French President François Hollande arrives in India today, where he is expected to meet with government officials and be a guest of honor at Tuesday’s Republic Day Parade in New Delhi. The AP:

High on the agenda will be India’s desire to purchase 36 Rafale combat planes for its air force, which Modi had announced during a visit to Paris in April, touching off several rounds of negotiations over pricing, offsets and servicing.

Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar said last week that the deal was “close to completion,” and another Indian official said this week that the two sides hoped to sign a deal during Hollande’s visit. That official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with media.

Hollande’s visit and both sides’ eagerness to strike deals reflects several things. For one, France, like most European countries, needs money and is looking everywhere for it. For its part, India wants weapons and is looking everywhere for them. France has also offered to help with domestic projects, such as high-speed rail and nuclear power.

There’s a bigger picture story here, too. Interest in India has been rising as public and private investors look for hungry populations to replace China’s flagging demand. Indeed, Prime Minister Modi has made no secret that he sees an opportunity to capitalize on the vacuum left by China. We wouldn’t be surprised to see more cash-strapped governments answering Delhi’s call.