Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 88

Delusional May: First the Constitution

If May were to return to the Palace and inform the Queen that she could not, after all, form a government, the Queen would have to send for Corbyn and let him have a go. Likewise if she failed to get her Queen’s Speech through the Commons. But if she falls after that, because the government is in place,  it would be correct for her to remain as caretaker while her party elects a new leader, whom the Queen would then send for. Corbyn would not get a look in.

It was therefore critical to the survival of the Tory government that May’s rumoured intention to resign on Friday morning was stopped by the senior members of the Cabinet and why they took control at that point. From then on May is doing their bidding, not the other way around and as soon as they have managed to get the government constitutionally on the road they plan to dump her. She was obliged to fire her two minders, without whom she is intellectually sterile, but to avoid her becoming dysfunctional, they allowed her old university chum, the amiable and emollient Damien Green, to be appointed First Secretary. Because he is an ardent Remainer they demanded she bring in a balancing high profile Brexiteer. May’s arch enemy, Michael Gove, the man who knifed Boris, made a surprise return. It is not clear whether Gove and Boris have made up and demanded his inclusion or whether May appointed Gove to shackle Boris.

Constitutionally May is now safe unless some new difficulty arises before the State Opening and the Queen’s Speech. She could fall if the Commons does not pass the Queens Speech, but after that she will go when the Cabinet decides. Because, although British Prime Ministers and Governments are possessed of extraordinary executive powers delegated by the Queen, these are conditional. Parliament has the power to sack the government by expressing no confidence in it, in which case the prime minister goes down too. But the Cabinet can lose confidence in the prime minister, in which case the incumbent goes but the government survives. As in the cases of Neville Chamberlain and Margaret Thatcher and in due course May herself.

If, through some circumstance not yet foreseen, May falls and Corbyn is sent for but cannot get a Labour Queen’s Speech through the Commons, there would be a general election. Labour would win it with a hefty majority. The Tories will do anything to avoid that happening until they have a new leader in place.

The issue of whether the the government can continue in its impartial role within the terms of the Good Friday Agreement if one of the parties against whom it may have to mediate, the DUP, is propping up the Tory party in office at Westminster, is political not constitutional. Any MP elected to parliament is constitutionally entitled to take part in government. The appropriateness of such action is political, as are the consequences, however unwelcome.

Finally the delusional May has now, I think, learned that it is not her government, as she said during the election in her I Me Mine campaign, but Her Majesty’s Government. The power of the Prime Minister is in the hands of the Cabinet and the power of the government is in the hands of the House of Commons. The power of the Commons is in the hands of the People. This she is now discovering. But it is too late. She is now politically neutered as all can see and in office only to keep the Tory party in power. It dare not return to the People until it has got rid of her.

 

 

 

Labour Poll Lead

Just to add fuel to the flames of the fire in which Tory credibility is now roasting, Labour has a six point lead over them in the latest opinion poll. It happens to be the one which came closest to predicting the actual result, so you can take it seriously.

May’s Coalition Of Chaos

Europe this morning looks on in disbelief at the extraordinary spectacle of a complete political collapse of the government of the United Kingdom as its wounded leader, described as a dead woman walking by the former Tory Chancellor, struggles to glue a fix with the most reactionary political party in Europe, in order to cling to power with, if it agrees, a majority of two. The DUP may have a constituency for its outrageous platform in the peculiar sectarian environment of protestant Northern Ireland, but its recorded views on a range of social and human rights issues are repellent to millions upon millions of people in the United Kingdom. Significantly for those who value democracy over the political fix,  fewer than 300,000 votes gain the DUP ten Westminster MPs, whereas the Greens have only one MP with over 500,000 votes.

This is not strong and stable leadership to get the best for Britain. This is a betrayal of all that is best in Britain. It is power at any price, informed by delusional reasoning and paid for by moral bankruptcy. Already it is in disarray with statements from Downing Street being corrected in the night as to whether there is or is not a deal agreed. To lose an election is an accepted political outcome. And in the context of what she had before and what she asked voters to give her, May lost this one big time.

To form a minority government and move forward on a broadly acceptable programme, very different from her previous opaque aspirations but acceptable to parliament, would be worthy, if humiliating. But to be willing to engage in the political equivalent of supping with the devil, will inflict a mortal blow upon the credibility of the Tory party in the country and the authority of her government all across the world and, most particularly, in Europe.

May will indeed be a dead woman walking. But she will not walk far.

Election 2017: Some Figures

There is no doubt the Tories won the election in total seat numbers, but as a measure of the direction of travel, seats alone are not enough. You need also to look at the votes and especially the increase in votes. Here are some figures for you to compare. The Tories lost 13 seats, gained 2.3 million votes and increased their vote share by 5.5%. Labour gained 30 seats, added 3.5 million votes and upped their share by 9.8%. Labour clearly has the more impressive advance.

The total votes polled by the Tories in 2017 was 13,667,213.     Labour scored 12,874,985. The Tories clearly achieved the most votes but the margin is not great, well below 1 million. Labour’s total looks even more impressive when compared to the 8.6 million of Gordon Brown in 2010.

An alliance between Tories and the DUP would account for 13,959,529 million votes. A Progressive Alliance comprising Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens would total 16,914,113 million. That is nearly 3 million more than the Tory alliance. Remember that figure. It may become critical over the next few days. When the Corbyn team talk of forming a government they have clearly looked at those figures too. Moreover their partners would be similar in outlook and decent. The DUP are anathema to everybody except the delusional May.

May’s New Government:Where Is It?

Yesterday May went to see the Queen, then stood in Downing Street and announced that, with the support of her friends the DUP, she was forming a new government. So where is it?

The government seems to have vanished. No ministers have been seen going in and out of  Number Ten, as is normal at times like this. Not a single Cabinet minister has appeared in public or given an interview since the shock outcome of the election. Last night one of them,Chris Grayling, appeared on an election edition of Any Questions and if you listened to his answers with a seasoned political ear, he had no idea what was going on.

This Blog smells a rat. I think there might be a crisis. I am not sure the Cabinet is backing May.  There are clues that all is not going to plan. She does everything without consulting colleagues. Well maybe this DUP thing is a step too far. Maybe the grandees will  not run with this.

Perhaps it will be over sooner than we think.

 

 

May Survives in Pact With Prejudice, Hate and Bigotry

That it has come to this beggars belief. The power sharing government of Northern Ireland has collapsed because the sectarian hatred, prejudice, provocative Orange culture and unwillingness to compromise of the DUP, not only acted as the wick which kept the fire of the Troubles burning, but has prevented the final completion of the peace process, which has transformed the lives of all communities in Ulster. In addition that party is out of step with the rest of the United Kingdom in the disgraceful opposition to same sex marriage and abortion.

These people are now referred to by Theresa May as her ‘friends and allies’ with whom she plans to strike a deal to keep her in Downing Street. The Tory party must, if it allows her to go down this dark and intimidating alley, hang its head in shame. This is not one nation politics for decent caring people; it is power at any price.

Delusional May Loses Big But Clings On.

As this Blog has been promoting all along the young turned out and delivered the biggest political upset since way back, which few saw coming. It is a political calamity for the over confident May, who thought she was running for President with her I, Me, My campaign , full of hot air, empty of detail and scared of debate. Her position is precarious, her is authority incinerated, she is the laughing stock of Europe and her leadership is flawed. Her party is gripped by collective rage that she threw away their mandate by betting the house on the vanity that she was a star. She says she will not resign. From the Queen of U-Turns that mean she probably will.

That is all for today. I have been up all night but, my goodness, it was worth it. Wow!

You Must Vote!

At last the day has come. The most astonishing political campaign ever organised in this country has seen the underdog turn into a rock star and the front runner stumble. It has transformed the the political conversation.  A real, radical alternative with a widely praised, well thought out, properly costed Labour manifesto took the whole media and political establishment by surprise and has proved very popular on the doorstep. By contrast the Tory manifesto has been a disaster, unraveling both their campaign and their leader’s invincible aura. U-Turns are back. A  blue van bearing the theme ‘Strong and Stable Leadership’ blew over in yesterday’s high winds on one of the motorways, causing traffic delays. Was that an omen?

The political establishment, the media and most of the commentators expect and predict a Tory win by miles. Just one or two outlying polls tell a different story. This time tomorrow we will know who was right.  On the one hand we stand on the brink of more of the depressing same, laced with U-Turns and Brexit grandstanding. And on the other hand?

A political revolution.

Help Labour To Win- A Message For the 18-35 Age Group.

Labour is advancing in the polls beyond anything seen for years because at last it is attracting back its core working class vote. But it is also attracting huge numbers of young people, many of whom are well educated and successful movers and shakers, who live in the hear and now, see what is wrong with our country and have no time whatever for wild Tory finger pointing at attitudes and people from thirty years ago. I also have evidence that a surprising number are from the privileged few. In other words a coming together of classes and social cultures in a common mission for all.

Opinion polls all show the gap between the Tories and Labour narrowing, but some still show a healthy lead for May, while the latest shows the gap all but closed. There is a reason for this. Some polls are using a model weighted to reflect the demographic turnout in 2015, when very large numbers of young voters did not bother to vote. Where the gap has closed the model reflects the belief that a much higher percentage of young people in the age group 18-35 will vote, denying May the power to speak for Britain and setting our country on a new and better path. So if you too want to live in a country of hope, progress and fair shares and liberate us all from the sterile mantra of endless austerity, make sure you get out and cast your vote on Thursday.

I was born when Neville Chamberlain was Prime Minister, so I cannot claim to be young.  But it is your future I want to assure and so I will be voting with you. I have lived under fifteen prime ministers, but this current one is by far the worst.

Let’s do it.

Labour Can Win

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