Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 38
January 13, 2019
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Sentencing Reform Welcome
The shocking fact that this country has more people in prison than any other democracy in Europe is one which has disturbed many people for a long time. Rory Stewart, the prisons minister, is now proposing a consultation on eliminating short term sentences of six months or less, because statistics show them to be a launch pad for continuous re-offending.
This is a very positive move and one can only hope that the government has the capability to consult and act in a timely fashion. But it is not just about short sentences. It is about restoring the whole fabric of the criminal justice system, hacked into by searing cuts under the austerity programme.
Sufficient prison staff, a proper training and rehabilitation programme, enough police officers especially neighbourhood foot patrols, sufficient resources generally for a real attack upon the drugs and gang culture, are just a few on a long list of essentials for a twenty first century response to modern crime at all levels.
January 12, 2019
Universal Credit: After Eight Years It Still Causes Misery
The latest concessions from the Work and Pensions Secretary to reduce the hardship of Universal Credit on the most vulnerable and needy is very welcome, but it cannot gloss over the fact that this a complicated and confusing benefit which will never work properly in practice. It may be clever, it may be intellectually elegant and it could even be brilliant in theory. But the nature of people in crisis, many of whom have various limitations of access and understanding, added to the administrative limitations of the public service machine, as we see time and again, means that it is not workable in the universal application for which it was designed.
Labour have promised to close it down. Since they are not in power but the Tories are, it falls to the government to eat humble pie put a stop to a flagship which after eight years, is still not fit to put to sea. Meanwhile the outrage of dependency on food banks, a dependency which rockets in areas where U.C. is rolled out, is a shocking commentary upon the inequalities which lie behind rising public anger, of which Brexit and the trouble it is causing, is the most obvious, but not the only, symptom.
January 11, 2019
Brexit: Political Chaos
The vote on May’s deal is set for Tuesday. It represents a climatic moment in a story of political confusion arising from the biggest failure of governance in GB’s peacetime history. But it will not end there because if the vote is lost absolutely nobody anywhere knows what will happen next, taking uncertainty about this country’s future to an undreamed of level. And if the vote is won, it only means that we are leaving in an orderly fashion, i.e. with our bags packed and furniture neatly stacked in a van, but still no idea where we are eventually going to live because years of negotiations over just about everything still lie ahead.
A gobsmacked world looks on aghast as the one country with a default off orderly and decisive government, home of the Mother of Parliaments, product of over a thousand years of evolution of a unique and flexible constitution adaptable to the times, has imploded into ungovernable confusion over the major political choice it democratically made. This is made worse by the spectacle of the EU, which GB has chosen to leave, made up of not one country but twenty seven, standing resolute and united upon its response to the national self-harm unfolding on its borders in its neighbour. A neighbour who time and again has answered the call of duty to rescue Europe from its own quarrels and fights and played a major role in shaping the very Union it has now decided to abandon.
At the heart of this disaster is one political party, the Tories, split on Europe for decades, which called a referendum without understanding what Brexit actually entailed, lost it, continued in government after a change of leader, who called an election and lost that, but carried on to deliver the current turmoil, which even even in the febrile politics of Greece or Italy would be too embarrassing to allow.
Yet here it just goes on and on.
January 9, 2019
Trump’s Wall: Is He Losing his Grip?
Trump has become his own worst enemy. His mid-east policy, especially in regard to Syria and Saudi Arabia, is a mess. In recent days Pompeo and Bolton have been in the region saying opposite things. Turkey is furious that Trump appears to be back peddling on his Syria withdrawal announcement, anger made worse by the Bolton request for Turkey to protect the Kurdish militias which rightly or wrongly, Ankara regard as terrorists and have done for decades.
Meanwhile China and Russia have cemented their positions in their own spheres of interest and China now holds the keys to ending the trade war Trump started, and the ongoing dialogue with North Korea over its nuclear programme. Europe has given up on Trump and now regards his presidency as something to put up with and manage as best it can, while increasingly ignoring the Trump White House.
And then there is the Wall. This blog is not going to argue the case one way or another. It is worth observing that the majority of Americans are against it, the wall and affordable healthcare were the issues that propelled the Democrats to their major victory in the House, of all the terrorist suspects detained by the US in 2018, only about a half a dozen came from Mexico, 90% of all illicit drugs entering America come through legal points of entry and the nine minute broadcast from the White House yesterday was a bravura performance in the black art of Fake News.
Trump’s poll ratings are falling and the Republican party itself is now becoming de-stabilized by a chaotic White House and a wild card incumbent. Trump may yet surprise and recover. He has done so before. Now everything hinges on the economy. If that falters he might even fail to get the Republican Nomination to run in 2020. He would probably run anyway as a spoiler. The rest you can work out.
Government Defeat: A Game Changer?
Yesterday’s cross party victory over the government was interesting. Dismissed by ministers as a minor inconvenience and procedural, it is not a game changer in itself. It has also emerged that parliament cannot directly stop a No Deal Brexit by simply passing an amendment prohibiting it. Therefore if it cannot agree either to May’s plan or some other, no deal is the default position enshrined in both EU and UK law. What yesterday’s vote reveals is that if the hard Brexiteers have a strategic plan to push for no deal, there are enough Tory MP’s willing to put country above party to bring the government down. That is a game changer.
