Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 28

Boris’s Bust Up

Wow. It did not take long! Already Boris is embroiled in controversy. It must be said that the private lives of other people are no concern of this blog. All families and relationships have their ups and downs. To many people Boris is Boris and like Trump he is a Teflon person of whom people expect the worst, so when it happens, they discount it.

On the other hand Boris the clown and showman, who does mega ra ras at party gatherings and gets everybody fired up, is now seeking to be chosen as prime minister of a country is crisis, a Union under stress, a nation divided and a future uncertain. In those circumstances, which affect us all, a prime minister who is engaged in domestic upsets in the middle of the night which alarm neighbours, involving plates being thrown, bangs, crashes, screams and cries of ‘get off me’ could be rather worrying. Finger on the button and all that.

At the very least Hunt looks more interesting this morning.

Boris v Hunt

As  predicted by this blog in previous posts Stewart fell, Gove had baggage to do with Boris and Hunt, the man in the neat suit who talked to the issues and answered the questions, got through to the final. Just. Rumours of votes being traded trickle through Westminster. They are probably right. Among its many qualities the Westminster village cannot boast purity or innocence. Politics in this country is cleaner than in many, but no politics anywhere is bright spanking clean.

Now we have the  hustings, which are to be open only to Tory party members to attend, but will be broadcast to the nation to follow. So it is a spectator sport for all. It is worth rubbing in the fact that never before has a membership of any political party taken time to elect a leader outside parliament, while that party was in office. The constitutional tension has been the subject of previous posts.

Yet we are where we are and the contest is thought to be a shoe in for Boris. Perhaps it is. Polling suggests it will be. Fine, so be it. But watch the man with the tidy haircut and the neat suit.

 

Tory Ballot: The Moment of Truth

By the end of today we will know whose challenge Boris will have to defeat to become Prime Minister. Yesterday saw the end of the energising campaign of Rory Stewart, brought down for the very reasons set out in my previous posts, in which I opined that his was the pragmatic realism the country needed now.

In the unlikely event of Javid the contest would have an authentic attraction representing two very different parts of our multi-cultural society. If Gove, it would be one long row between the candidates, fulled by revenge and distrust after the two fell out hours after the 2016 referendum. If Hunt, his detractors are already calling him Theresa in trousers.

This is wishful thinking. Certainly Hunt is not colourful nor a clown, but he does have a forensic grasp of detail and a realistic understanding of both the clear perils and alleged opportunities of Brexit. He answers questions with unusual candour and directness, in sharp contrast to the whimsical optimism and confusion of facts which have become Boris’s trademark. Hunt took over a foreign office in some disarray after Boris’s disastrous tenure and has proved very much better at the job. There is no reason to suppose Hunt would not make the better prime minister.

It is worth remembering that the front runner rarely wins a Tory leadership contest. Most wanted Halifax, but it was Churchill. After Eden, Butler was the favourite, but it went to Macmillan. After him, Butler was again the favourite, but it went to Home. Maudling was the next favourite, but Heath won, in the first Tory leadership election with MPs formally voting. When Thatcher challenged, Heath was expected to win, but Thatcher beat him and he never got over it. When the Iron Lady fell, it was Heseltine out ahead, but Major who finally won.

The rumours are that Boris’s people would prefer Hunt, whom they believe their man could trounce. They may be making a big mistake.

 

That Debate: What It Revealed

The format of last night’s BBC leadership debate was wrong. It was clever but it did not work. A debate without an audience becomes an argument and arguments are frustrating things to watch. Emily Maitlis did her very best, but too often everybody was shouting and nothing could be heard. Superficially Hunt, Gove and Javid scored some points and at times appeared genuine and passionate, while Johnson and Stewart fell short of their teams’ hopes. None however suffered a knockout blow.

But the overriding conclusion must be this. Here we had members of the Tory party, four in the current cabinet, so at odds about what to do and so in denial of realities that it was clear above all else that the Tory party is presently unfit to govern. Whoever is leader will make no difference to that crippling state of affairs and either we must have a general election or a second referendum to give voters a chance to express the current state of their thinking.

Brexit as originally sold by mainly Gove and Boris is undeliverable and a fantasy. What is available in any format will leave the country worse off. That much was clear last night. It is also clear from opinion polls and from both the local and EU elections that while a minority in the country want Brexit at any cost, the majority have had enough and want to end this terrible self inflicted trauma which has befallen our country.

Iran: Get Real

Since the days of the US hostages I have felt the West’s approach has been rather lacking in imagination when dealing with Iran. More recently there has been some divergence between the Trump administration and the EU. The US policy is a mixture of fawning over the Saudis, obeying Israel’s commands to dump the Palestinians, whilst antagonising Iran. This contrasts with a more  nuanced approach from the EU. The UK is more or less rudderless at the moment but the big Iranian issue for us is the plight of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, which is a heart rending diplomatic disaster, seemingly beyond repair. Boris Johnson’s futile and inept tenure of the Foreign Office bears most of the responsibility for this poor woman’s plight. Her own suffering is mirrored  by that of her husband and family.

Overall the reality is that Iran is an established regional power based upon a very old civilisation. It will never buckle to any approach which demands humiliating acceptance of terms imposed upon it. But it does want to become a more included member of the family of nations and that common interest can and should be the basis of negotiation towards pathway agreements leading to better understanding. There are enormous business opportunities awaiting Global Britain if we can get a government up and running which is capable of doing stuff beyond going round in circles over Brexit.

Meanwhile the Americans are gung ho for confrontation. It should come as no surprise as it is their style. It began with us in the eighteenth century. We lost. But now times have changed. The world is  smaller, but it is full of  bigger players.

Again from the Western Isles: Tories Choose.

Apart from the constitutional affront in the process of having members of one party electing de facto a new prime minister of a minority government, already explored at length in previous posts, the most alarming aspect of the election is the rubbish talked by the contenders. Only Rory Stewart has the brains for the job and a grasp of what is needed and he is a no hoper on three counts, whilst at the same time something of a pundit’s darling. Nobody among the mass of the voters in the country has a clue who he is, his centrist agenda is anathema to the membership of the current Tory party and the centre is an over trampled quagmire, poisoned by many good intentions, which can yield nothing now of value. The ground needs a rest and quite a long one at that.

Attlee and Wilson governed from the left and changed the whole structure of society and its values.Thatcher governed from the right (but not the far right) and achieved a lasting reform of dogma driven leftist thinking. But Blair and Cameron who both governed from the centre, quite competently and without too many upsets, changed a few things but little was of lasting value. One ended in the Crash (Brown at the helm) and one ended in Brexit.

Meanwhile the whole economic model has fallen into shocking decay and confusion with the better off getting richer almost literally by the hour and the less well off, upon whom everything in everyday life depends, grow poorer and more overworked, with the poorest plunging to depths unknown since the 1930s. Services at every level and in all spheres are starved of cash and failing to deliver on the promises made by ministers of every stripe, some of the weakest of whom now fancy themselves as prime minister.

Brexit dominates everything, but it is everything that has to be fixed.

Latest From The Western Isles

Parliament has rejected the Labour led attempt to prevent a No Deal Brexit. Good. Many readers who have read previous posts will recall I rejoiced when the Supreme Court ruled the the government could not proceed with Article 50 without the approval of parliament. Well, I have changed my mind. Parliament cannot govern. It can legislate and approve or reject, but it cannot govern. Its attempt to do so over Brexit has initiated the most chaotic period of argument and confusion in our country’s democratic history. We have become an international embarrassment and this notion that parliament can somehow take control from the executive is a wild and dangerous fantasy.

If Boris or any other prime minister attempts a No Deal Brexit, the remedy is simple. A motion of no confidence to bring down that government. That is how our system works. If parliament lacks the guts or intellect to do that, then a No Deal Brexit it is. If No Deal turns out to be good, Boris, or whoever beats him to the Tory leadership, will be in Downing Street for a decade. If it turns out to be the disaster that I and millions of others believe it will be, the Tory party will be kicked out and denied power for two generations at least.

More Thoughts From The Western Isles

Has Farage been put back in his box?

Everybody thought the Brexit Party was on a landslide cruise to an easy victory at Peterborough. He promised a shock for British politics. In the event Farage was the one to be shocked by Labour’s surprise win. But when you think about it, this was no surprise. When it comes to winning domestic elections Farage is singularly unsuccessful. He himself has never won a parliamentary seat in spite of multiple tries. Neither has any party he has led. This is not because he is a bad politician. He is actually a champion populist motivator but the causes for which he stands  have a high water mark well below the level of political conquest.

Yet they are gold standard for creating political upset. Farage now has the power to make it impossible for the Tories to win a general election. Neutralising that power will become a primary focus of the post May government. As always the poisoned chalice of Brexit continues the be the only drinking vessel for a troubled country in changing times.

BBC charges the over 75’s

All my life the BBC has been a essential feature of everyday life. I can even recall hearing the news being read on the Home Service and listened to with great attention by the grown ups during WW2. I have also supported the licence fee and after an adult lifetime of payment felt I had earned the freedom from liability when I passed 75. Note the word liability. Everybody who had a broadcasting receiving instrument, in other words a radio or TV was liable, in return for which the government, through the BBC, provided the content free. It worked well, but now its time has passed. It is essential that the BBC have the right to charge for their service. It is also essential that consumers have the right to opt out of paying for it and receiving it.

By making that choice they should not be liable to criminal prosecution for receiving an alternative for which they pay either by watching advertising or by subscription. In other words the BBC should become a subscription service. No subscriptions, no money. Real life. There are now so many alternatives to choose from the whole concept is way past its sell by date. It was so good in its day. Like so many good things, the time comes when it is over.

The Tory Leader

The only two who are credible as future prime ministers are Boris the showman, or Rory (Stewart), the brains. The Tory party needs a showman. The country needs the brains. The rest are rubbish.

Trump and Boris

It comes as no surprise that Trump has intervened, against diplomatic protocol, in domestic UK politics, by backing Boris for PM. Nor that John Bolton wants the UK out of Europe. The US is short on Western allies at the moment. Having the UK detached from Europe and back under US dominance would be handy. The two together make a combination which is the biggest in everything except population. It is also clear that there are going to be more shocks during Trump’s controversial visit to the UK.

Whether this will be good for Boris depends on where you are in the political and generational firmament. It will help him with Tory members, making his election certain unless he blows it. That he might do so, is not unlikely. But if he does make to leader with Trump’s support, he will pay a price in any general election campaign among young and remain voters who will hold the keys to the outcome.

Once again this blog protests that, for the first time with a party in power, an external electorate, outside parliament, is in effect choosing the next PM. To describe the position in which the Queen is thus put as constitutionally shakey, is to understate the case. The formalities will, of course be impeccable as May will remain in power until the change of Tory leader is made, so that she can advise the Queen whom to send for. But even that poses a problem.  Because everyone knows that Boris’s flagship legislation will be a No Deal Brexit. And that cannot get through because even leading Tory ministers are prepared to bring down their own government to prevent it. So the Queen will be sending for someone who cannot govern. That is  constitutionally vexatious at the very least.

When Callaghan took over from Wilson, Major from Thatcher, Brown from Blair and May from Cameron, only MPs were involved in the choice. And all those governments had a majority in the House of Commons at the time of the changeover, without coalition or confidence and supply support. So although the potential for challenge was there, by ending the contest within parliament, any potential legal challenge was avoided. This time might not be so easy.

The Tory party has no majority and it cannot secure one for any version of its flagship policies. Legally it might well be argued that it is now Her Majesty’s constitutional duty to send for Corbyn, or at least send for the Tory in parliament most likely to be able to govern as of now. The Tory party in the country can elect whoever they like to be leader but in present circumstances that is constitutionally irrelevant and supported by precedent. Chamberlain remained leader of his party for several months after Churchill became PM in 1940. In fact he only succeeded to lead the Tory party because of the vacancy caused by Chamberlain’s death.

The truth is this is all a terrible mess.

A View From The Western Isles

I am up here taking a family break, but keeping an eye on what is going on. I have some thoughts, more questions really, than answers. But I think they are worth sharing.

BREXIT

I do not see how it is possible in a democracy, even with our unwritten constitution, to remove from the EU two countries, Scotland and Northern Ireland, against their democratic will. Both voted Remain and reinforced that choice in the way they voted in the EU elections. The shambolic preparation for the whole Brexit project, now plunged into  chaos approaching farce, not only did not bother to work out how Brexit would or could work, but how or what majority would be decisive.

Surely at least Scotland should have had to go Leave with England, or a two thirds majority be required in one of the biggest  constitutional revisions in our history, for a Leave mandate to be valid?

BORIS

I have said from the very beginning that the Leave majority was achieved with a false prospectus which, had it been a public offering by a limited company of its shares or goods, would have led to criminal prosecutions. That politicians should be exempt from these standards is a major reason why they are now held in such contempt. If democracy is founded on lies it has no future whatever. Neither can it be argued that political comment and debate by its nature permits outlandish claims and promises because they can be challenged by an alternative view. Lies are lies however they are packaged and whatever their purpose. It is worth noting that it was a private lawsuit which gave Parliament control of Brexit.

Perhaps another private intervention will change British politics for the good?

CAR PRODUCTION

In the U.K. this has fallen by 45% in April. Evidently this is due to disruption caused by the Brexit preparations. Should we be comfortable about this?

TORY LEADERSHIP

There are so many candidates fancying their chances in the contest to replace May that I have lost count. It is apparently now the case that with a sitting government, but without a majority in parliament, an external electorate of 120,000 Tory members averaging late fifties in age, mostly white and mostly men, get to decide the next prime minister. How did we end up here?