Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 148

Russian Air Strikes

Obama, Cameron and their juniors have been quick to condemn the Russians for allegedly making no distinction between IS, Al Qaeda, Al Nusra and other militant Islamists in Syria, and those ‘opposition’ forces backed half heartedly by the West. All of them are anti Assad, but the Islamists are anti almost everybody and especially the West, Iran and Russia.

One of the problems with all the disastrous interventions of the West and the string of failed states which has resulted, is that there has never been clarity on who the enemy is. We end up fighting factions and splinters and supporting governments with no proper mandate to govern, no ability to uphold the law or keep the peace. Russia senses real danger if IS is not checked and fears a link-up with an increasing bold Taliban in northern Afghanistan which can spill northwest towards Russia and Chechnya.

Russian military doctrine has always been much more outcome focussed than that of western allies and it is determined to try and avoid the failure of Syria as a state. Assad and his regime, whatever their faults and they have never tried to threaten the West or its interests, is the only combination that looks remotely like a coherent government in Syria and Russia therefore regards its survival as critical to the survival of the Syrian state. The alternative for sure is IS in Damascus.

Russia has said that it goes along with the political wing of the Free Syrian Army taking part in a political settlement, but it will not offer their military wing, such as it is, any immunity from attack on the ground, during the campaign to disable all the various anti-government elements opposing Assad, of which IS is the largest and most dangerous. We cannot tell if the Russian strategy will work, nor if they will succeed in bringing about by force a climate in which a political settlement becomes realistic. Since the West’s own effort has failed and is going nowhere, it might be best if its politicians  shut up, for the time being at least. If Russia, too, fails there will be an opportunity to say something.

The American led coalition, which has so many members it is all but meaningless, wants both IS and Assad to lose. But for that to happen there has to be a winner. And the problem for the West is that there is no such organisation in  the field. Just a pipe dream. Russia has worked that out. That is why it has intervened.

Syria: Russia and Iran Take Control

This Blog has many times complained of the incompetence of western foreign policy in almost every sphere, but especially in the Middle East and in relations with Russia. It is the inability to think strategically, the refusal to depart from the old tribal model of goodies and baddies post cold war, and the pointless campaign to isolate Russia, which hurts the west more than Putin. The shambles of failed states, Iraq and Libya, now being joined by Afghanistan where everything is going wrong, should put down the kind of marker that would trigger a rethink. But no.

So we get to Syria. A senior UK politician today described western policy here as childish and based on fantasy. The enemy has always been the militant forms of Islam trying to turn the clock back to the middle ages, not Assad, although there is much about him and his regime to deplore. The moderate opposition western politicians promote does not exist. The free Syrian Army, which is very weak, were it to triumph, would almost certainly inaugurate a second Libya. IS and its allies, including Al Qaeda affiliates, are heading to take over all of Syria, as the west’s bombing campaigns does no more than hinder.

Russia then steps forward and asks to join the coalition to defeat IS et al. The west vacillates and argues because Russia sees Assad in the short term as part of the solution not the problem. But the west takes a posture verging on the imbecile. No he has to go. It is like insisting on Stalin going as part of the deal to defeat the Nazis. So Russia and Iran decide, in effect, to go it alone. For this the west can only blame itself. The smart move now would be to walk away and let the Russians and the Iranians, with what is left of Assad, to get on with it. They could not do worse. But the chances are they would do a whole lot better. If they defeat or hobble IS that is good for the west.

The snag is it would make western politicians look silly and their military inept. Yes well…

Pressing the Nuclear Button

Corbyn has come under attack from friend and foe for saying in two interviews widely repeated across the media that he would not, if Prime Minister, press the button to launch a nuclear strike from Trident submarines. Dealing with the question of his becoming PM first. This is where everybody is awry. Corbyn’s influence is not what he may do if he wins in 2020. He will then be 71. It is unlikely he will by then want to lead Labour on age grounds alone. If he does fine, but his earthquake is going on now  and his historic influence will come from his stint as Leader of the Opposition. He has already changed the nature of the political conversation, ended the Thatcher consensus and opened up a real and tangible  gap, missing for many years, between the Tory view of what has to be done and the Labour view of what should be done. He has defined the political battle as one between vested interests and the people and tripled Labour’s membership in the process.

Now to Trident. This blog has supported the deterrent and I have always been a supporter of Britain having its own bomb and means of delivery. I believe nuclear weapons saved about 60 million lives, which would have been the toll of a conventional WWIII. I would vote for a renewal of Trident.

But Corbyn has made me take a closer look at this whole concept, and the more I look at this awesome system capable of frying half the world, I begin to wonder whether in the current world (rather than the Cold War stand off) it is actually credible. We know Corbyn would not fire it. But, when it came to it, would anybody else? And the answer to that question is nothing like as straightforward as I had supposed.

So I am now continuing to wonder. When my wondering is over I will share my conclusions with you. I am not in any hurry. The end of civilisation and the killing off of the better part of the human race is quite a big subject. For me. And perhaps for you too.

Quantitative Easing: Free Download

QE in various forms is now very much part of the economic conversation, especially in connection with a fresh approach to financial issues by the new leadership of the Labour party. Dynamic Quantitative Easing remains under government, not bank, control and targets specific investment projects without borrowing, interest or repayments. It can reboot the economy, boost manufacturing and exports and enable sustained growth of real national wealth shared by all, rather than just asset inflation which is the downside of ordinary QE. If you want to find out more you can download FREE a lucid explanation of the original idea from the link below.

Download Free.  Paperback £2.99

Corbyn: Let’s Get Real

Corbyn has caused an earthquake which has in turn caused chaos to a whole political class of commentator and pundit who have learned their craft in the last thirty five years. They are almost all (but not quite all) out of their depth and off message, because for them Thatcherism is an everlasting verity, New labour is Labour, left means Michael Foot, the markets are all powerful and such power as is left over, lies in Westminster. There is one single message to which all believers subscribe and everything depends upon presentation. They believe it, these yesteryear commentators, their tutors believed it when they  taught them, and all will judge how Corbyn conducts himself within the political weather they know, and they will measure him against all its records. What they do not see is that the political weather has changed and the new weather is Corbyn.

Take this stuff about old lines in the speech. A brilliant writer penned the line ‘the British people do not have to take what they are given‘. Evidently he has has been offering it to every Labour leader since Kinnock. They all ignored it. But Corbyn recognised its genius. To the tawdry army of self important hacks to whom few listen and almost all have given up reading, using old lines was a presentation gaffe. But I watched the delivery. The entire conference rose cheering to its feet and brought the leader’s speech to a halt with a prolonged standing ovation. The faces, especially of the young; they were lit up in way unseen at a political rally for decades. Who wrote it and when was irrelevant. He said it. To them. Now. It touched their souls.

No, he did not mention the deficit, because it had already been mentioned and the whole country is sick to death of hearing about something which is not their fault and which has now been going on for nearly eight years. They only know that whatever is supposed to be fixing it is failing and they are paying the price, while those responsible for creating it make hay. They want another way. In the end it is the people who will decide Corbyn’s fate, not the professors of politics or the political editors and certainly not the schemers and plotters of the near extinct New Labour.

And that fate is in the figures. The Tories can expect between ten and twelve million reliable voters depending on whether they are up or down. Now and again they do better, sometimes worse. On the same reckoning Labour can expect nine to ten million. But, and this is the key, there are fifteen million who are registered but do not vote. About five million of those will turn out for a change of political weather to the left and if they do they will vote for Corbyn’s style of Labour. Huge numbers of them are the hungry young. Hungry for change and a new deal.

The question is not whether Corbyn will make it, but whether anybody can stop him.

Quantitative Easing: An Easy Explanation Free

QE in various forms is now very much part of the economic conversation, especially in connection with a fresh approach to financial issues by the new leadership of the Labour party. Dynamic Quantitative Easing remains under government, not bank, control and targets specific investment projects without borrowing, interest or repayments. It can reboot the economy, boost manufacturing and exports and enable sustained growth of real national wealth shared by all, rather than just asset inflation which is the downside of ordinary QE. If you want to find out more you can download FREE a lucid explanation of the original idea from the link below.

Download Free.  Paperback £2.99

Labour Conference: People Power In Politics

We often talk about left and right wings in politics. We usually mean labour on the left and capital on the right. There is another definition and this is very much in play at the moment. It is the people on the left and the establishment on the right. Establishment parties (in the UK this is the Conservative party) are there to protect the interests of those with capital and who, as a life vocation or choice, exercise power. Policy is determined by the leadership, aided by advisers and think tanks, and people vote for it, whether party members or ordinary voters, because they like the menu on offer. It is not democratic in the full sense, but you get to vote as a party member who you want as leader and as a voter on whether you want these people to govern. This notion of power and the desire (some see it as a right) to exercise it permeates a whole section of society, the education system and the top universities. It embraces business and the professions at their apex and has roots in both the judiciary and the Church of England.

This whole mega structure would collapse were it not for the foundation on which it all stands. The foundation is the people. The ordinary people who serve the state and keep it functioning and functional. They do this by their jobs or professions which although they will never become rich through them, are critical to the survival of everything else. They could be working in health, education, power generation, transport, law enforcement, emergency services, industry, retail, fuel, the list is all but endless. In our modern world of social media and information technology they are now engaged and empowered as never before in history. They have access to universal knowledge and universal fellowship, all from the palms of their hands. They want a say in how their lives are run, not just by whom.

It means ordinary people become engaged in the formation of political policy, so that their interests will be promoted in the order of priorities they proclaim. It means power rising from the people to challenge and balance that which cascades down from above. It is why Jeremy Corbyn, who almost alone in the House of Commons understood this and saw how the political weather had changed from the dawn of the Thatcher era, is now a political phenomenon. And why the Labour Party is growing faster then ever.

Peoples Quantitative Easing: Free Download For Labour Conference

The ideas of the new shadow chancellor to pump money into the base of the economy are welcome, although not quite right.  If you want to find out how it should work you can download FREE a lucid explanation of the original idea from the links below.

Download Free.  Paperback £2.99

Kindle or Paperback  UK        US            

Volkswagen: More Than Meets The Eye?

The news that VW now admit that their European cars carry the cheating software and that the UK and other countries are going to carry out tests on ALL makes of cars raises key questions.

Clearly the initial supposition that the device had just been fitted in a mere half million cars to circumvent the testing regime in American states with mega tough emissions laws, especially California, turns out to be wishful thinking. Eleven million cars are apparently involved and it beggars belief that a project on that scale was known only to a handful. Indeed who produced the software?  Is it VW’s own, or bought in from a specialist? Then comes the obvious. Is VW the only manufacturer doing this, or just the one that got caught?  And if more were at it, we are looking at something so big loads of people must have known. Perhaps even the authorities. This then poses the big question.

Are these emission laws everywhere realistic? Or are they based on laboratory analysis which cannot be replicated in real on the road driving conditions, no matter what? If that is the case we should be told and further development of petrol and diesel cars should give way to organising an electrical motive power train which not only delivers good performance after initial charging, but can keep itself charged by its own motion.

That would deal with the pollution problem. It would be bad news for the oil industry. Maybe that is why it has not happened already.

Shocking News

The shocking news from Mecca, with the death toll now at 700 and still climbing is appalling and goes to show once again just how dangerous a surging crowd can be. We have had such tragedies at football matches but fortunately they are rare. Sadly Mecca has become a black-spot for this kind of disaster in spite of the fact that the Saudis have spent billions trying to create conditions which will make crowds safe. Clearly more needs to be done, but meanwhile our hearts go out to all those who have suffered injury and loss.