Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 114

So Is Clinton Winning?

Well that depends. If you know about US politics, if you listen to pundits and you believe opinion polls the answer is a resounding yes. But if you have an instinct for danger when out in the wilds, you may have doubts. Because this election for President is very much wild when it comes to being sure about anything.

First of all it is not a contest between Republicans and Democrats. It is between the social/political/business establishment backing Clinton and the anti-establishment forgotten patriotic citizens rooting for Trump. Money on an unprecedented scale pours into the Clinton campaign; by contrast although Trump is rich, his campaign coffers are pretty empty. Not only is the Clinton campaign far superior in organization as well as money, it is skilfully directed and smooth running. The Trump campaign is accident prone, resignation heavy and largely chaotic. But Trump is not over yet. There are more anti-establishment folk out there than establishment smoothies inside, the political weather, right across the democratic world, blows anti the status quo, and they have huge commitment and enthusiasm for their cause.  They toil long hours for little and sleep well in anticipation of the morrow.

By contrast the Clinton campaign flows on the roller coaster of money rather than passion. Its people do not sleep well and they fear the morrow. Because they know there is one big ticket item on which every pundit and poll is agreed about Hilary Clinton. Two thirds of the American people do not trust her.

Labour Leadership: Another Brexit Referendum?

This is the plan of Owen Smith, if elected leader of the Labour party. The idea misses several important points.

Immediately after the Brexit vote I said the people had voted for a mirage, that what was promised could not be delivered, there was no majority in parliament for Brexit and it would be constitutionally proper for there to be a second referendum to approve the terms of exit. But I was wrong about all of that. All of it was technically correct, but something much bigger had happened.

People had voted simply to leave; they did not care on what terms, because they had a gut feeling that GB could do well in the world given the freedom and given the chance. They saw the establishment, the political parties, the bankers and the vested interests all ganged up against them so that no matter what, when or for whom they voted nothing ever changed. But this time it would have to. Brexit was the detail. The issue was the command of the people. Deny that and you will finally admit you deny democracy.

The hundreds of thousands entitled to vote in this election triggered by Owen Smith are in the majority recent joiners who have joined Labour because they see it not as a conventional political party, but as the anti political party; the movement which is against every aspect of the status quo, which has faith in real people and believes they deserve better and in return will deliver world beating outcomes.

Like Team GB. Team GB which beat all the world to stand right behind the mega power of the United States. Just ordinary people all of them, but very special too. From nearly sixty down to sixteen from every social class and ethnicity united under one flag.They were given the backing and the chance and they took it for their country. And their country cannot recall being so proud and it loves them to bits.

Corbyn is the antithesis of the career politician. He has never put party before people, nor winning above principle. He plays to a hostile media and conforms to not one single requirement of a successful politician or spin doctor. But he is the man of the hour. The notion of another referendum will not help Owen Smith, because democratic betrayal is what people hate the most. And that ploy would be seen as the greatest betrayal of all.

Mid-East Mess: Signs of Diplomatic Shift.

While we have been focused on the triumphs of Team GB in Rio, things have been happening in this cauldron of death and confusion, which was supposed to be a beacon of democracy to light the world, according to the pea brains who inaugurated the biggest military and foreign policy failure in centuries. There is no need to rehearse the course which led us here, nor to rant once more at the fools, stooges, wishful thinkers and nut cases who led it. But here we are with no clear plan anywhere which will exit us and free the suffering people from the dreadful violence, repression, starvation and death which is their daily and in many cases only diet.

Yet there are critical shifts beginning in the sterile posturing which has blocked any kind of progress. Turkey is moving closer to Russia and Iran, Washington and Moscow are in continuous dialogue and there are increasing signs that a new but fragile unity driven by realism among these five key players may chart both a decisive assault on the military capacity of IS and some kind of deal to end the conflict in Syria.

For the sake of everyone we can only hope so. Enough is more than enough.

Olympic Legacy: How About The Economy?

No rational person predicted that Team GB would beat the entire world apart from the US and come second in Rio. Especially not of my generation, fed on almost a lifetime of Olympic under achievement until the breakthrough in Beijing. There is of course much talk about sporting legacies, with inspiration seeping into every park and playground motivating champions of the future. Yet there is a bigger lesson here than people realize. This winning medal hall is the result not of chance or luck, but of design. The old notion that the gifted amateur would burst forth to triumph was cast aside when John Major inaugurated lottery funded Olympic development. Rather than throw the money indiscriminately at potential stars, an infrastructure was established covering every single facet of the requirements to achieve world class competitive excellence with a clear focused objective; to win. And to go on winning.

This lesson is transferable and to no better place than the economy. Brexit demands that after bumbling about for decades, drifting first from Empire, then falling as an industrial super-power to an economy which is now 80% shopping, funded by borrowing secured by house price inflation, in which every kind of inequality grows, we at last reconfigure our economic model in a fundamental way no less dramatic than Germany and Japan at the end of WWII. To do that the Olympic triumph tells us the government will have to come up with two key elements to set the economic reboot going. A comprehensive strategic plan with exemplary tactical execution, and a pile of cash to ignite it, at least £1 trillion.

So far there is no sign of any of this. We wait upon May and her do nothing government with interest.

Olympic Boxing Judgement

I am not a sporty person so I am very much a spectator, but as a youngster I was taught boxing, so when I watch a fight  I understand exactly what is going on. There is no doubt at all that Joe Joyce won his bout by a margin and should have been awarded the gold medal. He was very gracious in his disappointment and must be commended for that. There is always the potential for controversy with judged competitions in any sport and it says much for judging quality across many disciplines that arguments are rare. In this case, and once the dust of Rio has settled, some further examination of what exactly was going on is certainly justified and I think essential. Doping is not the only threat to Olympic integrity.

Khan For Owen Smith

It is difficult to see whether this will make any difference to the contest. If the vote were close or if Smith were followed by enthusiastic crowds to match Corbyn’s on his itinerary across the country, it might very well be a clincher. But that is not apparently the case. Party members, all but the baseline hundred thousand or so who were there before, have joined because everything about the old party offends them and everything about the political establishment needs changing. Maybe that includes Sadiq Khan, for although he was elected with a good majority as Mayor of London, the surge in his support was almost certainly more to do with Corbyn than it was to do with him. So his intervention will change few, if any, minds.

The UK Economy: Time To Govern.

The Government keeps telling us the UK economy is in great shape. It rather depends what they mean. Retail sales seem to be holding up quite well. Manufacturing shows signs of responding to the exceptional opportunities offered by the low pound. Shares are high and property prices may be off the boil although still simmering. Wages in real terms are rising and unemployment is low.

But and this is a very big collection of buts; too much spending is funded by borrowing, we are a nation of borrowers not savers, the balance of trade is horrific, the gap between rich and poor grows, opportunities for the young shrink, the taxation base is too small to balance the government’s books, the industrial base may now be too small to generate the needed new wealth, infrastructure decays faster than it is renewed, public services are starved of cash and standards are falling, there are problems on the rail network and throughout the NHS and to add to many other issues kicked like rattling cans down a dusty road, there is the looming uncertainty over Brexit. Not one single element of this and certainly none of the details which made people vote for it, is clear, even in outline.

So if you think you know where we are headed think again. Nothing will become clear until the new government starts to govern. So far it just comments. And many of these comments make little sense. Time is running short. If May is not careful it will run out.

May Blunders: Child Obesity Shambles

It appears that a coherent and well rounded programme to tackle the very serious problem of childhood obesity (with crossovers into adult obesity) has been watered down on the orders of 10 Downing Street on the grounds that necessary and urgent sanctions could dent the profitability of the food industry at a time when the economy may be faltering.

This is morally indefensible and politically inept. It appears that the new prime minister over-ruled her senior colleagues and insisted that peak time TV ads for killer foods and related promotions aimed at young people should continue against all the advice of everyone who takes this issue seriously. Meanwhile there are reports, mentioned in previous posts, of spats among Brexit ministers and a there is a clear policy vacuum at the Treasury. This all contributes to uncertainty and delay in the real economy right now and far more than any restrictions on future junk food advertising.

This is just not good enough and when Mrs. May comes down from her Swiss mountains and returns, she must up her game. Her holiday will then be over. Her political honeymoon has ended already.

Trump Talk Latest: Making Better Sense?

As the Blog has already noted, by conventional measurement, long experience and shrewd arithmetic, the Trump campaign has crashed and Hilary is a shoe in if she does not trip up or bust a heel before November. However there is a growing unease that polls and suchlike are not telling the true story because Trump is appealing to voters whom everybody, including pollsters, ignores, and there may just be a surprise in store. There is also the possibility that Trump is so reviled by official politics that respondents are not revealing their true intentions.

There is no point in guessing, neither is there much point in going into orbit every time Trump says something that extends the known boundaries of outrage and insult, mixed with irresponsibility. But it is worth reflecting that his foreign policy speech made sense in many ways to this Blog, which has been forever highly critical of both the State Department and its faithfully ally, the Foreign Office. Their policies at every level are bound to fail,  do so and become very destructive when mixed with muddle headed military force.

So the simple nostrum that Trump will do business with any country which is fighting IS, whether he likes their ideology or not, shows a much more realistic way forward, than the Obama/Clinton method. Roosevelt and Churchill hated communism, knew Stalin butchered his own people and was a tyrant of the most frightening kind. But they still allied themselves to him to defeat Hitler.

Golden Olympics

This blog rarely comments on sporting events because it has no expertise to bring a new angle to discussions. But the Olympics are special and what is happening in Rio is very special. I was brought up and lived most of my life on a diet of consistent and continuous Olympic disappointment. There was a here we don’t go again feel to our efforts on a par to the despair which follows the England football team. But then in 2008 things began to change in Beijing as Team GB showed real benefits from professional training and preparation, backed by significant investment of lottery cash, a John Major initiative for which he should be better remembered.  London 2012 began hesitantly then produced a national triumph beyond the wildest imagining.

As I write this GB sits at number 2 spot in the medals table, behind only the United States and ahead of all of the rest of the world. Once again there was a hesitant start, very British that, but momentum has been steadily building. Whether we can retain this amazing position in the tables is not certain, but to be there at all is a moment well worth living for.