Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 109

May: Her Brexit Troubles Grow.

Whichever way you look, problems are piling up over Brexit. This is because the Brexit which everyone was promised is a fantasy. Even if a soft Brexit were pushed through the EU council of ministers, the chances of an absolute majority in the EU parliament backing it are slim and as we now see from the Canada trade agreement debacle, the chances of getting all parts of the 27 member states to ratify some special deal which favours Britain are near to zero.

In fairness to May she was not the author of this misfortune; she came in to pick up the pieces. Cameron had promised throughout the referendum campaign that if defeated he would carry on, trigger Article 50 immediately and negotiate the exit. He broke that promise straight away. Furthermore the notion of Brexit was never a product of policy analysis, but rather of emotional prejudice, which became a source of never ending civil war within the Tory party. Cameron’s decision to offer the referendum had nothing to do with changing the fortunes of his country. It was designed to end the civil war in his party. Of the 17 million who voted Brexit, it is clear that at least 5 million voted to kick the political class, the establishment and the bankers in the teeth, without a thought for what Brexit actually was.

A proper government would have had, before proceeding with the referendum, Cobra style case studies prepared both for staying in and for Brexit, what the future would hold under both and how the process of Brexiting would work and with what objectives in view. Those objectives would have been stress tested to see if they were achievable or based on wishful thinking and fantasy. This would have led to a coherent and sensible plan, allowing a timely and orderly procession to the chosen Brexit option, with all the stakeholders clear about our vision of the way forward. Instead of which the good ship GB set sail into unknown seas, without charts or compass and without agreement among the crew, the captain who proposed the voyage having jumped overboard before it left harbour.

So Hard Brexit, ranging from rock hard to jolly uncomfortable, is the only option and although the three Brexiteers in the cabinet, Boris, Davis and Fox will go with that, the House of Commons will not. Scotland is already making very angry noises, the governments of Wales and Northern Ireland are anxious, the City is dismayed, business investment is on hold and still we have no idea what the government’s plans actually are, if they exist at all.

Now we learn that, contrary to what we were told by the promoters of this reckless adventure,  our membership of the WTO is via the EU and will have to be ‘renewed’. That will require detailed negotiations which cannot begin until we have left the EU, will take about two years and have to be agreed by all the other members, over 160 of them, including the likes of Russia, whom we constantly upbraid and criticize. Downing Street still falls back on the mantra that Brexit means Brexit, but neither it nor anyone else knows what Brexit means. Well the truth is beginning to dawn.

There will be consequences. The only relief may be if in the up coming elections in 2017 Merkel, Hollande and Renzi are voted out and replaced by populist Eurosceptics. In that event there will be a real chance for the whole EU to start to unravel. That would be the worst option of all. Forest fires start from the smallest spark, or fools like Cameron, playing with matches.

Tory By-Election Shock: Liberal Democrat Surprise.

This result is very significant. It is way off the national opinion polls with not just a big drop in the Tory  share of the  vote but a big advance for the Lib Dems. This will play heavily into politics at Westminster, because the Lib Dems are the only party which is actively campaigning to reverse Brexit. Translated into real politics it means this. The government stands very little chance of getting much beyond Hard Brexit in its negotiations, which will be pretty much a choice between hard Brexit or no Brexit.

The government (in neither the government nor the Commons is there a majority who want Brexit) will have difficulty in demonstrating the advantages of that leap in the dark, while the snags will be obvious and the pain of falling living standards and rising costs will be beginning to hurt. When May comes to the Commons to get the deal passed it will be defeated. The subsequent general election will be unwinnable for the Tories, because unlike the referendum, not every vote will count. It will depend where it is cast. Moreover voting for the proposition will almost certainly push Scotland to independence and bring an end to the United Kingdom. England, the Brexit stronghold, will shrink from that. Brexit will be over.

The only person who can save the day is Hammond, by introducing an eye popping economic stimulus in November to run alongside the fall in sterling, which will demonstrate to the country and to the world that the future for the whole UK, whatever sort of Brexit, in or out of Europe, is golden. If he cannot do that Brexit sooner or later is over.

As for the Tory Right Wing who have campaigned for Brexit for years, and the imploded UKIP founded for the single issue of Brexit, they will face a devastating price for their complete failure to invest the intellectual energy to plan and to prepare so that they could lead their country forward through the biggest political event, short of war, in its modern history. They will pay with their dreams.

Brexit : The Devil Is In The Detail: The Devil Holds The Cards

There are reports that May’s ministers, in conversations with EU officials, reveal a surprising lack of knowledge of the details of how the EU actually works. This would explain the complete paralysis apparently gripping the government about how to proceed with Brexit, because their Brexiteers had literally no idea what was involved. It is established that the Brits love process and procedures. Most of our public services are bogged down with ever expanding nostrums of due process. We love and include in national life ceremonial procedures from centuries past. Within all these processes there is a flexible approach to rules, even, perhaps especially, within our constitution

The Continental countries, Germany in particular, are sticklers for detail and for rules. Work within those and the process will take care of itself. So the EU is built on rules which cannot be varied and details which are exact. The Brexiteers for long thought and continually asserted that the attraction of trade with Britain would cause the rest of the EU to agree sensible terms which amended details and changed rules. That will never happen. The sanctity of their rules is way above their interest in trade with GB. The BIG RULES will not change. They are free movement of capital, goods and people and contributions to the EU budget, over none of which is the UK parliament sovereign.

Essentially the Brexit case voted for in the referendum was that there should be free movement of capital and goods but controls on the movement of people and no further contributions to the EU Budget. Sovereignty over all of it would return to the UK parliament. This will not even be discussed. The reason the May government is holding a veil of secrecy over its negotiating position is because it finds it does not have one. There are no cards in its hand. There are no negotiations available. On the BIG RULES you either accept them or you go. It is either hard Brexit or No Brexit. It is not a negotiation but a choice. When that becomes clear to the House of Commons, and to the country at large, the May government will fall.

Is It Over For Trump?

No. Not yet. He remains in the fight, a loose cannon firing off in all directions, none of which is a traditional aiming point. He is certainly bloodied, but he is not broken. The polls have slipped, but they have not crashed. Many of his supporters are young women who should be running miles from The Groper, yet they flock cheering to his rallies, where wild enthusiasm reigns. Much depends on the opinion polls over the next ten days. If there is an unambiguous opening up of the  Clinton lead, the answer is probably yes. Failing that Trump will fight to the last and an upset on election day is well on the cards. But if not, there could be even bigger drama ahead to mesmerize an already spell bound world.

The Trump campaign was badly  damaged as he appeared to fall into the Clinton laid trap, perhaps her campaign’s best ever move, of taking the bait on challenges to his fitness for the highest office. He has hit back with ugly stuff about putting her in jail, recalling Bill’s spectacular White house sex life and making her take a drugs test. He is now claiming the election is rigged. This last item may hold they key.

Trump does not do losing. He will not hang around to be humiliated like Goldwater. If he is sure he is losing big, he will cause a world sensation by withdrawing on the grounds of a rigged election. The Republicans will breathe a sigh of relief. Pence will step forward to take the nomination, Christie or some such will become the Veep, the Republicans will be defeated, but they will feel clean and will rise to fight another day. But so far that escape hatch will likely remain closed.

Trump is very much in there and fighting and we will not know until the morning after the poll what, in the end has happened. Prepare for the kind of end which is the beginning of some new convulsion. One thing we can bet on. Hilary’s campaign lacks passion, Trump’s has unbounded enthusiasm. Whilst Trump is Mr Teflon, Hilary is vulnerable, although she believes she is winning. But any further blow to her credibility could see him snatch the keys to the White House out of her her very hands.

Brexit: How Safe Is The Union?

The SNP is back on the agenda with early preparation for another independence referendum. Most polls show there is still a majority for staying in the union with the UK, in spite of the Brexit vote, but hard Brexit could change that. Only a movement on average of three percentage points would be needed. To keep the union intact will require a Brexit which looks at least as attractive as being in the EU when the benefit of being part of the UK is added. Can May deliver that?

Well we know so little of what her plan is we cannot say. But if we look at the evidence, the referendum vote was for curbs on immigration, a return of sovereignty and no more payments to Brussels. That is a hard Brexit. Unfortunately voters were also told that there would be no problem getting a cosy deal with Europe which would keep trade (and jobs) flowing normally. That is a hard Brexit with a soft centre and there is next to no chance of that. So what did Leavers vote for exactly? Would there still be a majority for Brexit if that meant higher prices and lower growth at least for a while, with job losses and no free access to the single market? You could argue that the warnings from Remain were so blood curdling that everyone knew the risks. Or you could argue that Leave told porkies and misled voters.

Parliament, which is sovereign, might have to decide. There are several problems here. The government is alleging that it has sovereignty, not parliament. This is being challenged in the courts. Parliament is squaring up to a constitutional argument with its own government. There is no majority in it for Brexit, let alone a hard Brexit.  The survival of the Union, an issue attached to hard Brexit, could become a very serious issue indeed. That then begs another question; where is England headed? Does it know? Boris evidently could only make up his mind by writing two conflicting articles before opting for Brexit. Really?

This is going to get very messy. The absence of a properly prepared plan for the biggest post WWII foreign and economic policy adventure is beginning to tell. There are obstacles popping up on every front, whichever way you want to go. There are strong rumours of serious disagreement in the government, causing paralysis at the top. Donald Dusk, President of the European Council, has put it very simply. Britain has only two choices. Hard Brexit or No Brexit.

Unless this government can bring some clarity to this confusion and improve its relationships within itself and with parliament, you may begin to hear more about the second choice.

The EU: The way Ahead?

If you are going to negotiate a deal, you are a fool if you do not carefully consider what the other side needs to get out of it. Me first negotiations take on the format of threats and work only if you have the power to threaten. So a look now at where the EU ought to be going might be useful.

There are a lot of problems in the EU. The Eurozone is not working fairly, neither can it with its present form of governance. The economic benefits of EU membership and being part of the Eurozone are uneven, favouring northern industrial countries led by Germany. Even in that group there is serious discontent with the economic outcome in France and Italy. All three have elections in 2017 which could throw up unwelcome surprises. The anti Brussels contagion has spread from the UK and the infection is growing. If the response is to loosen regulation and increase national sovereignty the euro will fail. If that happens the EU will unravel.

What has to happen in the EU is that all countries join the Euro, there is established an EU Federal government, elected by the EU parliament, because that is a properly elected body and should be invested with full federal powers. which then control a finance ministry and other ministries involving areas of policy now devolved to the Commission, which must be abolished. The Commissioners should disappear and the civil servants supporting them be dispersed into the ministries. EU wide taxes should be introduced and the current contribution system scrapped. The purpose is to inaugurate policies with a democratic mandate for the whole of the EU, especially for economics, which do not favour one country at the expense of another. The Council of Ministers could remain as a second chamber of government or Senate, with revising, but not executive, powers.

The effect would be a notable surrender of national sovereignty in exchange for a significant increase in democratic participation at federal level, which would usher in an era of improving prosperity and growth shared by all. In simple terms there would be a  proper transfer of sovereignty from national governments to the people who would exercise it at two levels, national and federal. There should be no exceptions or opt outs. You are either in it hook line and sinker, or you are out of it entirely.

If all that happens the Brexit negotiations will be quite short and clear cut.

Trump Steadies Under A Barage : Was Clinton The Right Choice?

There has never been a presidential contest in which one candidate was in as much trouble as Trump. Yet two new polls  put Trump 2 points ahead nationally (Rasmussen) and tied (L A Times). It is now clear that the voters, perhaps the majority, are determined to kick the establishment very hard and the conventional unsuitability of Trump makes him the right choice.  I heard of a four year old who told her mother that there was a man and a woman standing for president.  The woman told lies and the man teased girls. But the man would keep them safe, so she would vote for him.

So  the pundits may have got it wrong. It is not Trump who is in trouble, it is Hilary. She should be romping home not sliding back. If the Democrats had listened to the young people of America they would have picked Bernie Sanders as their nominee. He would now be on the home straight heading for a landslide. They made a terrible mistake. If Clinton loses it will be the greatest humiliation in the Party’s history. The voters will not just be rejecting the Democrats. They will be rejecting modern America. It will indeed be a Brexit moment.

Marmite Wars

The rather bizarre stand-off between Unilever and Tesco introduces an unexpected consequence of Brexit and its impact on the value of the pound. This blog has many times pointed out that the fall in the value of sterling is a good thing and there can be no economic recovery without it. However it is critical to point out that it must be accompanied by a major economic stimulus, without which we will not get much, if any, benefit. Instead we will be left with  the downside of  increasing cost of imports and their effect on the cost of living and inflation. Incomes will be squeezed and growth, which is at best meagre, will slow. This really forces Hammond’s hand and demands of him something very bold on November 24th.

Can Trump Still Win?

That question is impossible to answer. By any conventional political measure, whether it is opinion polls, or experience of what can work and what cannot, the Trump campaign is over.

The Republican party has deserted him, women are now coming forward with groping tales, unwanted kisses and similar smut, the tax row continues to grumble deep down like a volcano soon to erupt and in any other country, certainly in Europe, Trump would have had to withdraw. Indeed in the Australian parliament, Australia is a faithful ally of the US, a motion branding him a ‘filthy slug’ was passed unanimously. This is all unknown territory in international politics, let alone the domestic set up in the US. Only is Moscow does his star continue to rise.

There are now three possibilities open to a world dazzled by what has become a spectacle rather than an election. Trump will win narrowly, Trump will lose big, or Trump, fearing humiliation emblazoned across the planet, will withdraw. I have absolutely no idea which is more likely, neither do I rule out something even more off the page.

Boris: What A Disappointment

Boris Johnson’s call for demonstrations outside the Russian embassy yesterday in parliament were childish. He has turned out to be a very big disappointment to many in his first cabinet post, demonstrating incompetence and poor judgement and appearing out of his depth.

The terrible suffering in Aleppo shocks the world. There are two sides in every war and the Russians and their allies clearly want to bring this one to an end as quickly as possible, achieving their strategic objectives with a good deal better focus that the shambolic military and political policy of the American led coalition. Certainly killing civilians on purpose is a war crime, but when the enemy is entrenched within civilian infrastructure, it is inevitable that it will happen.

The quickest way to stop the suffering is not by the unhinged proposal of taking on Russia in the air above the city with western air power, but to get the rebels who have clearly lost, to leave the city under safe conduct. Only an imbecile can suppose that somehow further military intervention by new forces with more bombing, as some suggested yesterday in the Commons, could make things better.