Mark L. Van Name's Blog, page 215
March 3, 2012
A Lobo line for you from No Going Back
I was making a few necessary tweaks and ran into this Lobo comment. It's one of my favorite of his--though I may yet change it; the book is far from done, but I am racing for the deadline.
No, I won't tell you the context. For that, you'll have to read the book.
"Humans," Lobo said with a sigh, "can't live with 'em, can't kill them all without more ammo than I can carry and without being really bored afterward."I love his mixture of the literal and the hyperbolic.
No, I won't tell you the context. For that, you'll have to read the book.
March 2, 2012
An iPhone I can get behind
Reader Simon Ng contacted me a while back with some questions, and we enjoyed a brief and pleasant correspondence. The other day, he sent me a note showing the name of his iPhone, and I had to share it with you--with his permission, of course.
I love the idea of Lobo delivering my blog and other information to Simon. If only the Siri voice in it could be that of Bill Nighy, the voice I hear in my head when Lobo is talking, it would be perfect.
Thanks, Simon, for the photo and the honor.
I love the idea of Lobo delivering my blog and other information to Simon. If only the Siri voice in it could be that of Bill Nighy, the voice I hear in my head when Lobo is talking, it would be perfect.
Thanks, Simon, for the photo and the honor.
March 1, 2012
Two interesting action flicks, one opening day
March 23 will bring the opening of two action films I want to see, a rare (for this time of year) opening-day collision of similar movies.
One, most people will want to catch.
The Hunger Games is certain to be the blockbuster for that weekend.
The movie I want to see even more, though, probably won't open then in Raleigh.
Face it, The Raid: Redemption appears to be composed entirely of awesome.
My solution to this dilemma is simple: see them both as quickly as I can.
One, most people will want to catch.
The Hunger Games is certain to be the blockbuster for that weekend.
The movie I want to see even more, though, probably won't open then in Raleigh.
Face it, The Raid: Redemption appears to be composed entirely of awesome.
My solution to this dilemma is simple: see them both as quickly as I can.
February 29, 2012
Santorum. Really?
To my great astonishment, Rick Santorum continues to show well in the Republican primary race. I honestly cannot understand how anyone can take him seriously.
Let's consider some example quotes of his.
On homosexuality:
Want something simpler?
Here's Senator Santorum on contraception:
Let's try another topic, something related to the economy. Here's Santorum on social security:
I'd do more, but I have a novel to finish.
Rick Santorum as our president: really?
Let's consider some example quotes of his.
On homosexuality:
"If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual (gay) sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything."Forget whether you agree with his stance on homosexuality; could we all at least agree that logic ought still to rule reasoned discourse? One thing here simply does not lead to the next.
Want something simpler?
Here's Senator Santorum on contraception:
"One of the things I will talk about that no President has talked about before is I think the dangers of contraception in this country, the whole sexual libertine idea. Many in the Christian faith have said, 'Well, that's okay. Contraception's okay.'Really?
It's not okay because it's a license to do things in the sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. They're supposed to be within marriage, they are supposed to be for purposes that are, yes, conjugal, but also [inaudible], but also procreative. That's the perfect way that a sexual union should happen. We take any part of that out, we diminish the act. And if you can take one part out that's not for purposes of procreation, that's not one of the reasons, then you diminish this very special bond between men and women, so why can't you take other parts of that out? And all of a sudden, it becomes deconstructed to the point where it's simply pleasure. And that's certainly a part of it—and it's an important part of it, don't get me wrong—but there's a lot of things we do for pleasure, and this is special, and it needs to be seen as special."
Let's try another topic, something related to the economy. Here's Santorum on social security:
"The Social Security system, in my opinion, is a flawed design, period. But having said that, the design would work a lot better if we had stable demographic trends. We don't have enough workers to support the retirees . . . A third of the young people in America are not in America today because of abortion."Really?
I'd do more, but I have a novel to finish.
Rick Santorum as our president: really?
February 28, 2012
Parlour is back...
...and you should be eating its ice cream.
If you don't know Parlour, it is an ice cream store in a truck. A member of the local food truck scene, Parlour, which you can also follow on Twitter, uses fresh, mostly local ingredients to create some amazingly tasty ice cream. Currently available flavors include
The people who run Parlour, whose names I'm embarrassed to admit I don't know, are also always extremely nice.
Support great ice cream. Support local sourcing. Support the food truck scene.
Eat at Parlour.
If you don't know Parlour, it is an ice cream store in a truck. A member of the local food truck scene, Parlour, which you can also follow on Twitter, uses fresh, mostly local ingredients to create some amazingly tasty ice cream. Currently available flavors include
* vanillaI've sampled most of these--heck, I have a pint each of almost all the flavors in the freezer right now, fatty food for novel crunching--and they are uniformly rich and delicious.
* chocolate
* salted butter caramel
* Vietnamese coffee
* cherry chocolate chip
* honey hazelnut crunch
* sweet potato
* key lime pie
* blueberry buttermilk
* chocolate cookies and cream
The people who run Parlour, whose names I'm embarrassed to admit I don't know, are also always extremely nice.
Support great ice cream. Support local sourcing. Support the food truck scene.
Eat at Parlour.
February 27, 2012
Piedmont isn't what it used to be
As long-time readers know, for years I've liked Piedmont restaurant in Durham. A year and a half ago, though, the good folks at Coon Rock Farm and Zely & Ritz bought it, put in a new chef, and changed the menu. The focus on local sourcing went up, which I applaud, but they also added a focus on relatively inexpensive prix fixe menus. Though this move is probably wise in our current economy, it often does not, in my experience, help the food.
The other night, a group of us ate dinner there to check it out after a long absence.
The food was good--but no more. Gone were the complexities or inventiveness of past Piedmont menus. My cauliflower soup, for example, tasted fine but was little more than cauliflower. My pork loin was overcooked and rubbed too heavily. It wasn't a bad meal, not by any stretch, but it also wasn't the kind of meal that left me wanting to come back--which every meal at, for example, Panciuto or Herons or Saint Jacques does, and which meals at the previous Piedmont did.
The service had slid far more than the food. Maybe it was just our server, who was quite nice but clearly not on her game, but nothing happened entirely properly. I always tip at least 20%, because I appreciate good service and how hard it is for servers to make a living, but in this case I made a tiny, probably unnoticed statement by coming in only a little above 15%.
If you're looking for decent, locally sourced food at a good price, I'd still urge you to check out Piedmont. If, however, you're looking for both local sourcing and a top-notch meal, give it a pass.
The other night, a group of us ate dinner there to check it out after a long absence.
The food was good--but no more. Gone were the complexities or inventiveness of past Piedmont menus. My cauliflower soup, for example, tasted fine but was little more than cauliflower. My pork loin was overcooked and rubbed too heavily. It wasn't a bad meal, not by any stretch, but it also wasn't the kind of meal that left me wanting to come back--which every meal at, for example, Panciuto or Herons or Saint Jacques does, and which meals at the previous Piedmont did.
The service had slid far more than the food. Maybe it was just our server, who was quite nice but clearly not on her game, but nothing happened entirely properly. I always tip at least 20%, because I appreciate good service and how hard it is for servers to make a living, but in this case I made a tiny, probably unnoticed statement by coming in only a little above 15%.
If you're looking for decent, locally sourced food at a good price, I'd still urge you to check out Piedmont. If, however, you're looking for both local sourcing and a top-notch meal, give it a pass.
February 26, 2012
UFC 144: How we fared
Before I dive into the details, let me get to the two most important points about our picks for last night:
The first fight started the trend.
Tiequan Zhang vs. Issei Tamura
The UFC broadcast this fight on the PPV after the main event, so I was able to catch it. We both expected the more experienced Zhang to take this match. Instead, Tamura dominated the first round, then knocked out Zhang shortly after the second began.
We started the night 0-1.
The next four fights were all on FX, where we started badly again.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso
We picked Mizugaki because of his experience fighting a better caliber of competition than Cariaso. I felt Miguzaki won the fight, though not by much, because Cariaso was in it the whole time. MMAWeekly agreed with us. Dana White, the UFC's president, also did and paid Mizugaki his win bonus. The judges, however, did not: they gave Cariaso a unanimous decision victory.
We were then both 0-2.
Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell
Finally, a fight that went the way we both predicted: Fukuda was simply too much for Cantwell. Cantwell hung in the bout until the very end, but Fukuda just beat him down and earned the decision victory. Expect Cantwell, who's now lost five in a row in the octagon, to be looking for work before the end of this coming week.
His loss, though, took us to 1-2.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee
This match felt like one designed to ensure a victory for the Japanese Yamamoto over the British Lee. We both consequently chose Yamamoto.
It didn't go that way at all. Instead, Yamamoto came out strong but quickly learned that Lee was able to hurt him. With about a minute left in the fight, Lee hurt Yamamoto, got on him, transitioned smoothly from a triangle choke to an arm bar, and tapped out Yamamoto with what later proved to be the "Submission of the Night" bonus winning move.
We were down to 1-3.
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
This fight also felt like one designed to give the favorite--in this case, The Fireball Kid, Takanori Gomi--a sure win. This time, though, it worked--though it wasn't clear for a while that it would. Mitsuoka gave Gomi all he could handle for the first round, but in the second Gomi came out firing and was too much for Mitsuoka. Gomi ultimately won via TKO in that round.
His victory helped us to 2-3 as we left the prelims and headed into the main card.
Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
This fight marked our first disagreement. I bucked the odds and went with my heart by picking Lauzon, the poster boy for IT fighters. Kyle chose Pettis to win on his feet by being the better and more creative striker.
Kyle nailed it: Pettis knocked out Lauzon with a roundhouse kick in the first and earned himself the "Knockout of the Night" bonus in the process.
Kyle moved to even (3-3), while I dropped to 2-4.
Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
I once again defied the oddsmakers with my pick of Palaszewski to win this fight. Kyle chose Hioki to notch the victory via ground control.
Kyle won our second disagreement as the Hioki won two rounds (one judge said all three) en route to a unanimous decision victory.
At this point, I was an amazingly bad 2-5, while Kyle had climbed above .500 to 4-3.
Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
In one of the no-brainer picks of the night, we both opted for Okami. He's faced better competition, he grew up in Japan and so would be fired up, and his skill set is superior to Boetsch's. All of that seemed to be true, as Okami dominated the first two rounds.
In the third round, though, Boetsch came out incredibly aggressive, landed a big right on Okami, followed Okami down, and beat on him until the ref called the fight.
Tim Boetsch's amazing comeback took Kyle back to even (4-4) and me to an astonishingly poor 2-6.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Akiyama looked strong at welterweight, though his spray-on tan was more than a little odd. Shields looked cautious but in control, his game plan clear: strike, move away, take down. It was a close fight until the third round, when Shields got Akiyama's back and Akiyama grabbed the fence not once but twice--moves that should have cost him a point. Even without that penalty, however, Akiyama lost, Shields claimed the victory he very much needed, and Kyle and I notched another correct choice, moving us to 5-4 and 3-6, respectively.
Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
In our third and final disagreement of the night, Kyle was the one to buck the odds by picking Hunt. He was right, and in dramatic fashion as Hunt knocked down Kongo twice, pounced on him the second time, and put him away for the TKO victory.
Heading into the co-main event, Kyle had moved to 6-4, while I dropped to 3-7.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Rampage was fighting in a place he loved and in front of an audience that loved him. He was ranked higher than Bader. We both figured he would knock out Bader.
We were both wrong. Bader mixed striking and the occasional take-down into a combination that Rampage simply could not handle. Rampage had moments in which he shined, but the fight was all Bader, and he won a unanimous decision.
Kyle was down to 6-5, while I sank to 3-8.
Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Henderson
Right before the fights, Brian Derrick posted a comment on yesterday's entry in which he said that Benson Henderson was an SF fan and that he had introduced Benson to my books. Derrick noted it was not too late for me to change my pick.
I didn't.
I should have.
We both figured Edgar would be too much for Henderson to handle, but wow, were we wrong. Henderson was the fresher fighter, he did more damage than Edgar, and as Fight Metric reported, he won on most key statistics. The judges agreed and crowned Henderson the new UFC Lightweight Champion.
Kyle ended the evening a sad 6-6, but he kicked my butt in our first contest of 2012, as I went 3-9, the worst I've ever done in fight picks.
The show, though, was excellent, with a lot of very entertaining fights.
As always, don't rely on us for betting advice!
1) Kyle won.It was a night of upsets, a card in which the up-and-comers routinely defeated the favored established fighters.
2) We sucked.
The first fight started the trend.
Tiequan Zhang vs. Issei Tamura
The UFC broadcast this fight on the PPV after the main event, so I was able to catch it. We both expected the more experienced Zhang to take this match. Instead, Tamura dominated the first round, then knocked out Zhang shortly after the second began.
We started the night 0-1.
The next four fights were all on FX, where we started badly again.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso
We picked Mizugaki because of his experience fighting a better caliber of competition than Cariaso. I felt Miguzaki won the fight, though not by much, because Cariaso was in it the whole time. MMAWeekly agreed with us. Dana White, the UFC's president, also did and paid Mizugaki his win bonus. The judges, however, did not: they gave Cariaso a unanimous decision victory.
We were then both 0-2.
Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell
Finally, a fight that went the way we both predicted: Fukuda was simply too much for Cantwell. Cantwell hung in the bout until the very end, but Fukuda just beat him down and earned the decision victory. Expect Cantwell, who's now lost five in a row in the octagon, to be looking for work before the end of this coming week.
His loss, though, took us to 1-2.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee
This match felt like one designed to ensure a victory for the Japanese Yamamoto over the British Lee. We both consequently chose Yamamoto.
It didn't go that way at all. Instead, Yamamoto came out strong but quickly learned that Lee was able to hurt him. With about a minute left in the fight, Lee hurt Yamamoto, got on him, transitioned smoothly from a triangle choke to an arm bar, and tapped out Yamamoto with what later proved to be the "Submission of the Night" bonus winning move.
We were down to 1-3.
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
This fight also felt like one designed to give the favorite--in this case, The Fireball Kid, Takanori Gomi--a sure win. This time, though, it worked--though it wasn't clear for a while that it would. Mitsuoka gave Gomi all he could handle for the first round, but in the second Gomi came out firing and was too much for Mitsuoka. Gomi ultimately won via TKO in that round.
His victory helped us to 2-3 as we left the prelims and headed into the main card.
Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
This fight marked our first disagreement. I bucked the odds and went with my heart by picking Lauzon, the poster boy for IT fighters. Kyle chose Pettis to win on his feet by being the better and more creative striker.
Kyle nailed it: Pettis knocked out Lauzon with a roundhouse kick in the first and earned himself the "Knockout of the Night" bonus in the process.
Kyle moved to even (3-3), while I dropped to 2-4.
Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
I once again defied the oddsmakers with my pick of Palaszewski to win this fight. Kyle chose Hioki to notch the victory via ground control.
Kyle won our second disagreement as the Hioki won two rounds (one judge said all three) en route to a unanimous decision victory.
At this point, I was an amazingly bad 2-5, while Kyle had climbed above .500 to 4-3.
Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
In one of the no-brainer picks of the night, we both opted for Okami. He's faced better competition, he grew up in Japan and so would be fired up, and his skill set is superior to Boetsch's. All of that seemed to be true, as Okami dominated the first two rounds.
In the third round, though, Boetsch came out incredibly aggressive, landed a big right on Okami, followed Okami down, and beat on him until the ref called the fight.
Tim Boetsch's amazing comeback took Kyle back to even (4-4) and me to an astonishingly poor 2-6.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Akiyama looked strong at welterweight, though his spray-on tan was more than a little odd. Shields looked cautious but in control, his game plan clear: strike, move away, take down. It was a close fight until the third round, when Shields got Akiyama's back and Akiyama grabbed the fence not once but twice--moves that should have cost him a point. Even without that penalty, however, Akiyama lost, Shields claimed the victory he very much needed, and Kyle and I notched another correct choice, moving us to 5-4 and 3-6, respectively.
Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
In our third and final disagreement of the night, Kyle was the one to buck the odds by picking Hunt. He was right, and in dramatic fashion as Hunt knocked down Kongo twice, pounced on him the second time, and put him away for the TKO victory.
Heading into the co-main event, Kyle had moved to 6-4, while I dropped to 3-7.
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Rampage was fighting in a place he loved and in front of an audience that loved him. He was ranked higher than Bader. We both figured he would knock out Bader.
We were both wrong. Bader mixed striking and the occasional take-down into a combination that Rampage simply could not handle. Rampage had moments in which he shined, but the fight was all Bader, and he won a unanimous decision.
Kyle was down to 6-5, while I sank to 3-8.
Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Henderson
Right before the fights, Brian Derrick posted a comment on yesterday's entry in which he said that Benson Henderson was an SF fan and that he had introduced Benson to my books. Derrick noted it was not too late for me to change my pick.
I didn't.
I should have.
We both figured Edgar would be too much for Henderson to handle, but wow, were we wrong. Henderson was the fresher fighter, he did more damage than Edgar, and as Fight Metric reported, he won on most key statistics. The judges agreed and crowned Henderson the new UFC Lightweight Champion.
Kyle ended the evening a sad 6-6, but he kicked my butt in our first contest of 2012, as I went 3-9, the worst I've ever done in fight picks.
The show, though, was excellent, with a lot of very entertaining fights.
As always, don't rely on us for betting advice!
February 25, 2012
UFC 144: Kyle and I pick 'em
For tonight's PPV event, the UFC returns to Japan's Saitama Super Arena, the home of many great Pride fights. Kyle and I are making our first picks of 2012, so with any luck, we'll start off the year with a lot of wins.
The UFC will stream one preliminary fight on Facebook but may not broadcast it otherwise.
Tiequan Zhang vs. Issei Tamura
Mark: Tamura will be the hometown favorite, but he took the fight on two weeks' notice and has never fought in a cage. Expect Zhang, UFC's sole Chinese fighter, to win in a short, intense match.
Kyle: I don't know much about either of these guys. Tamura is 6-2, with two split-decision losses. Zhang is 15-2 with two unanimous decision losses, one in the WEC and one in the UFC. Zhang has been in the big show before and has fought a higher level of competition, so I'm inclined to give him the edge here. Tiequan Zhang by decision.
You can see the next four fights for free on FX.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso
Mark: This one is likely to go the distance, as two very skilled fighters go at it in an early candidate for fight of the night. Mizugaki, however, has fought much better competition and is stronger technically, so he will emerge with the decision victory.
Kyle: Mizugaki has lost every other fight for his last eight, and is due to lose this one. Cariaso has lost every other fight for his last four, and is due to lose this one. But the guys Mizugaki has lost to are a bantamweight murderer's row: Miguel Torres, Scott Jorgensen, Urijah Faber, and Brian Bowles. Cariaso has faced less stiff competition. Expect him to drop another one and Mizugaki to pull off a decision win.
Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell
Mark: Steve Cantwell was strong in the WEC, but in the UFC he discovered that he was too small for 205 and then not skilled enough for 185. He's lost four in a row, and after this fight, he'll be looking for work elsewhere, because Fukuda is going to punish him for 15 minutes, have the Japanese fans screaming, and emerge with the victory. With any luck, Cantwell will find a home in Strikeforce, where he will instantly be a solid contender in that promotion's far weaker middleweight class.
Kyle: That Cantwell is fighting in the UFC at all is something of a miracle. After winning his first fight in the UFC he's now lost four straight, and dropped out of two others on short notice for medical reasons. Look for Fukuda to give Cantwell his fifth straight loss and send him packing out of the UFC.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee
Mark: Yamamoto is a legend on the way down, but he'll notch another victory tonight. Expect him to take down and ultimately submit Lee.
Kyle: Five years ago, Yamamoto had racked up one of the most impressive win records in the lighter weight classes, beating names like Bibiano Fernandes, Genki Sudo, Caol Uno, and Royler Gracie. Since then, he's gone 1-4, including two losses in the UFC. British fighter Vaughan Lee has looked more impressive in recent years, but against much weaker competition. Yamamoto may be past his prime, but he should still have enough in the tank to avoid Lee's submissions and win via ground-and-pound.
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
Mark: The Fireball Kid is past his peak, and Mitsuoka has the tools to beat him. Mitsuoka, however, took the fight on short notice and hasn't competed at this level in the past. In a fight that could go either way, I'm siding with Gomi.
Kyle: Takanori Gomi is another former up-and-comer who showed champion-caliber talent five years ago but has had trouble keeping up as he's gotten older and the sport has evolved. Like Yamamoto, though, Gomi faces an opponent who seems picked to get him back on the winning track. Eiji Mitsuoka is a 36-year-old fighter who signed up on three weeks' notice to replace the injured George Sotiropoulos. Expect his conditioning to be questionable and his skills to be inferior to those of the Fireball Kid. Gomi for the win.
For the first time in my memory, the UFC has scheduled seven fights for the PPV.
Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
Mark: Pettis is the odds-on favorite to win this match. He's certainly the more creative striker, and he has a solid ground game and cardio for days. I'm bucking the odds, though, and going with Lauzon. I think the toughest IT guy around is going to hang long enough with Pettis on their feet to take Pettis down, and then Pettis will learn just how good Lauzon's submission game is. Lauzon FTW.
Kyle: I'd love to see Joe Lauzon win this--we computer science majors have to stick together--but I just don't believe it's going to happen. Lauzon is a smart fighter who comes up with a gameplan for each opponent and has the discipline to stick to it. Given the chance, he looks fantastic. But he's struggled against fighters who take him off plan, and Pettis is inventive and unpredictable enough to give Lauzon fits. Pettis wins this one on the feet.
(Mark: Finally, our first disagreement--and I'm the one bucking the odds!)
Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
Mark: Hioki is the favorite to win this fight, probably by taking down Palaszewski and either submitting or ground-and-pounding the American. I'm again going against the odds, however, because Palaszewski is on a roll and Hioki showed very little in his tepid victory over George Roop. Expect Palaszewski to out-strike Hioki en route to a TKO victory.
Kyle: Highly-ranked Featherweight Hatsu Hioki is a ground-fighting specialist. If you were designing a fighter to beat him, you'd want a striker with a strong wrestling base who's hard to take down. That doesn't describe Palaszewski, a Polish import who missed the sharpening of the American college wrestling experience. Palaszewski's a tough guy with no quit in him, but he's going to find himself taken down and smothered. Hioki by top control.
(Mark: And then there were two--again with me defying the odds!)
Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Mark: Okami is one of the best middleweights in the world, and Boetsch is relatively new to the weight class. To win, Boetsch has to both get the better of striking exchanges and then take down Okami. Neither is going to happen. Okami is unlikely to finish Boetsch, but Okami will walk away the winner.
Kyle: Okami and Boetsch have similar skill sets. They're both boxer-grapplers, though Boetsch comes from a Division I wrestling base, while Ok-ami is a judo expert. They're both going to look to use their striking to set up takedowns and ground-and-pound. You have to give Okami the edge, though. In his six years with the UFC, he's lost only to Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva, and Chael Sonnen--a past Middleweight champ, the current Middleweight champ, and possibly the next Middleweight champ. Boetsch has had a hit-and-miss career. Look for Okami to win in front of the hometown crowd.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Mark: Sexyama desperately needs to win this bout. He's fighting in front of a crowd that loves him, and he's lost three in a row; he will come out ready for action. Jake Shields is also highly motivated, having lost two straight fights for the first time in his career.
What will make the difference is the game plan, and Shields will have a better one. He will play it safe, take down Sexyama whenever he can, and ultimately carry the day, probably by decision.
Kyle: In three losses and one split decision win, Akiyama has yet to demonstrate that he has the skills to hang with any UFC-caliber opponent, much less a top-ten Welterweight like Jake Shields. Shields is going to put on a grappling clinic, and Akiyama is going to look like a Japanese rag doll. Shields by submission.
Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
Mark: If past audience reactions are any indication, the Japanese MMA fans love to see big men slug it out. This fight will give them just that. Hunt is a tough dude with heavy hands and a rock of a chin, but Kongo will be just too technical, too powerful, and too tall--Kongo has an eight-inch reach advantage--for him. Neither man has shown great cardio in the past, but as they begin to fade, Kongo's skill and reach advantages will come to the fore and result in a TKO win.
Kyle: This fight is likely to end up being a straight kickboxing match, and Hunt's K-1 background and heavy hands will serve him well. Kongo is favored, having KOed former K-1 fighter Pat Barry only a year ago. But I think a punch or two from Hunt will have Kongo looking for a take-down. If he can keep it on the feet, Hunt should be able to win by strikes.
(Mark: Three disagreements--and this time, it's Kyle going against the odds.)
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Mark: Rampage has fought all of the best at 205, and he's beaten most of them. A powerful striker with true knockout power and a strong wrestling base, he's at his best when fighting men his size who want to stand and trade punches.
Bader brings a great wrestling background to MMA but, as Kyle and I were discussing the other night, almost never uses it. He's going to try to stand with Rampage, and he's not quick enough to do it.
Expect Rampage to win, probably by TKO in the second.
Kyle: Bader exploded into the Light Heavyweight top ten with wins over Keith Jardine and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. But neither of those fighters has looked as impressive since losing to Bader, and Bader himself went on to drop back-to-back fights against Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz. I think Bader was overrated and will prove to be out of his depth against Jackson's boxing technique and sheer punching power. Bader has a chance if he can put Jackson on his back, but despite Bader's strong college wrestling record, he hasn't shown an ability to apply his wrestling skills in the context of an MMA fight. Jackson by knockout.
Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Henderson
Mark: Ben Henderson is an extremely skilled fighter with great cardio who's also one of the bigger, stronger men fighting at 155. He's been on a tear of late, and now he has a shot at the lightweight strap.
The problem is, he has to fight Frankie Edgar for it. Edgar is one of the smaller lightweights, a man who doesn't have to cut much weight to hit 155. Like Henderson, he's a cardio machine. Insanely quick, he dances around the cage, darting in to land a strike and then angling away before his opponents can catch him. He is also, as he's shown in his last two fights against Gray Maynard, composed entirely of heart and toughness.
As good as Henderson is, Edgar is better, a champion at the top of his game who will successfully defend his title once again.
Kyle: Edgar is an Energizer Bunny with fists of stone. Henderson's a fluid fighter who's usually able to stay relaxed and push the pace, but I don't think he's going to be able to match Edgar's tempo. As the fight moves on into the championship rounds, Henderson, like B. J. Penn and Gray Maynard before him, is going to find himself falling a step behind. That's when Edgar will do enough damage to show. Edgar by decision.
With three disagreements, there's no way Kyle and I will tie, so when I report back tomorrow, one of us will have opened 2012 with a prediction win. Tune in then to see which of us it is!
As always, don't rely on us for betting advice!
The UFC will stream one preliminary fight on Facebook but may not broadcast it otherwise.
Tiequan Zhang vs. Issei Tamura
Mark: Tamura will be the hometown favorite, but he took the fight on two weeks' notice and has never fought in a cage. Expect Zhang, UFC's sole Chinese fighter, to win in a short, intense match.
Kyle: I don't know much about either of these guys. Tamura is 6-2, with two split-decision losses. Zhang is 15-2 with two unanimous decision losses, one in the WEC and one in the UFC. Zhang has been in the big show before and has fought a higher level of competition, so I'm inclined to give him the edge here. Tiequan Zhang by decision.
You can see the next four fights for free on FX.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso
Mark: This one is likely to go the distance, as two very skilled fighters go at it in an early candidate for fight of the night. Mizugaki, however, has fought much better competition and is stronger technically, so he will emerge with the decision victory.
Kyle: Mizugaki has lost every other fight for his last eight, and is due to lose this one. Cariaso has lost every other fight for his last four, and is due to lose this one. But the guys Mizugaki has lost to are a bantamweight murderer's row: Miguel Torres, Scott Jorgensen, Urijah Faber, and Brian Bowles. Cariaso has faced less stiff competition. Expect him to drop another one and Mizugaki to pull off a decision win.
Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell
Mark: Steve Cantwell was strong in the WEC, but in the UFC he discovered that he was too small for 205 and then not skilled enough for 185. He's lost four in a row, and after this fight, he'll be looking for work elsewhere, because Fukuda is going to punish him for 15 minutes, have the Japanese fans screaming, and emerge with the victory. With any luck, Cantwell will find a home in Strikeforce, where he will instantly be a solid contender in that promotion's far weaker middleweight class.
Kyle: That Cantwell is fighting in the UFC at all is something of a miracle. After winning his first fight in the UFC he's now lost four straight, and dropped out of two others on short notice for medical reasons. Look for Fukuda to give Cantwell his fifth straight loss and send him packing out of the UFC.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee
Mark: Yamamoto is a legend on the way down, but he'll notch another victory tonight. Expect him to take down and ultimately submit Lee.
Kyle: Five years ago, Yamamoto had racked up one of the most impressive win records in the lighter weight classes, beating names like Bibiano Fernandes, Genki Sudo, Caol Uno, and Royler Gracie. Since then, he's gone 1-4, including two losses in the UFC. British fighter Vaughan Lee has looked more impressive in recent years, but against much weaker competition. Yamamoto may be past his prime, but he should still have enough in the tank to avoid Lee's submissions and win via ground-and-pound.
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
Mark: The Fireball Kid is past his peak, and Mitsuoka has the tools to beat him. Mitsuoka, however, took the fight on short notice and hasn't competed at this level in the past. In a fight that could go either way, I'm siding with Gomi.
Kyle: Takanori Gomi is another former up-and-comer who showed champion-caliber talent five years ago but has had trouble keeping up as he's gotten older and the sport has evolved. Like Yamamoto, though, Gomi faces an opponent who seems picked to get him back on the winning track. Eiji Mitsuoka is a 36-year-old fighter who signed up on three weeks' notice to replace the injured George Sotiropoulos. Expect his conditioning to be questionable and his skills to be inferior to those of the Fireball Kid. Gomi for the win.
For the first time in my memory, the UFC has scheduled seven fights for the PPV.
Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
Mark: Pettis is the odds-on favorite to win this match. He's certainly the more creative striker, and he has a solid ground game and cardio for days. I'm bucking the odds, though, and going with Lauzon. I think the toughest IT guy around is going to hang long enough with Pettis on their feet to take Pettis down, and then Pettis will learn just how good Lauzon's submission game is. Lauzon FTW.
Kyle: I'd love to see Joe Lauzon win this--we computer science majors have to stick together--but I just don't believe it's going to happen. Lauzon is a smart fighter who comes up with a gameplan for each opponent and has the discipline to stick to it. Given the chance, he looks fantastic. But he's struggled against fighters who take him off plan, and Pettis is inventive and unpredictable enough to give Lauzon fits. Pettis wins this one on the feet.
(Mark: Finally, our first disagreement--and I'm the one bucking the odds!)
Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
Mark: Hioki is the favorite to win this fight, probably by taking down Palaszewski and either submitting or ground-and-pounding the American. I'm again going against the odds, however, because Palaszewski is on a roll and Hioki showed very little in his tepid victory over George Roop. Expect Palaszewski to out-strike Hioki en route to a TKO victory.
Kyle: Highly-ranked Featherweight Hatsu Hioki is a ground-fighting specialist. If you were designing a fighter to beat him, you'd want a striker with a strong wrestling base who's hard to take down. That doesn't describe Palaszewski, a Polish import who missed the sharpening of the American college wrestling experience. Palaszewski's a tough guy with no quit in him, but he's going to find himself taken down and smothered. Hioki by top control.
(Mark: And then there were two--again with me defying the odds!)
Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Mark: Okami is one of the best middleweights in the world, and Boetsch is relatively new to the weight class. To win, Boetsch has to both get the better of striking exchanges and then take down Okami. Neither is going to happen. Okami is unlikely to finish Boetsch, but Okami will walk away the winner.
Kyle: Okami and Boetsch have similar skill sets. They're both boxer-grapplers, though Boetsch comes from a Division I wrestling base, while Ok-ami is a judo expert. They're both going to look to use their striking to set up takedowns and ground-and-pound. You have to give Okami the edge, though. In his six years with the UFC, he's lost only to Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva, and Chael Sonnen--a past Middleweight champ, the current Middleweight champ, and possibly the next Middleweight champ. Boetsch has had a hit-and-miss career. Look for Okami to win in front of the hometown crowd.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Mark: Sexyama desperately needs to win this bout. He's fighting in front of a crowd that loves him, and he's lost three in a row; he will come out ready for action. Jake Shields is also highly motivated, having lost two straight fights for the first time in his career.
What will make the difference is the game plan, and Shields will have a better one. He will play it safe, take down Sexyama whenever he can, and ultimately carry the day, probably by decision.
Kyle: In three losses and one split decision win, Akiyama has yet to demonstrate that he has the skills to hang with any UFC-caliber opponent, much less a top-ten Welterweight like Jake Shields. Shields is going to put on a grappling clinic, and Akiyama is going to look like a Japanese rag doll. Shields by submission.
Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
Mark: If past audience reactions are any indication, the Japanese MMA fans love to see big men slug it out. This fight will give them just that. Hunt is a tough dude with heavy hands and a rock of a chin, but Kongo will be just too technical, too powerful, and too tall--Kongo has an eight-inch reach advantage--for him. Neither man has shown great cardio in the past, but as they begin to fade, Kongo's skill and reach advantages will come to the fore and result in a TKO win.
Kyle: This fight is likely to end up being a straight kickboxing match, and Hunt's K-1 background and heavy hands will serve him well. Kongo is favored, having KOed former K-1 fighter Pat Barry only a year ago. But I think a punch or two from Hunt will have Kongo looking for a take-down. If he can keep it on the feet, Hunt should be able to win by strikes.
(Mark: Three disagreements--and this time, it's Kyle going against the odds.)
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Mark: Rampage has fought all of the best at 205, and he's beaten most of them. A powerful striker with true knockout power and a strong wrestling base, he's at his best when fighting men his size who want to stand and trade punches.
Bader brings a great wrestling background to MMA but, as Kyle and I were discussing the other night, almost never uses it. He's going to try to stand with Rampage, and he's not quick enough to do it.
Expect Rampage to win, probably by TKO in the second.
Kyle: Bader exploded into the Light Heavyweight top ten with wins over Keith Jardine and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. But neither of those fighters has looked as impressive since losing to Bader, and Bader himself went on to drop back-to-back fights against Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz. I think Bader was overrated and will prove to be out of his depth against Jackson's boxing technique and sheer punching power. Bader has a chance if he can put Jackson on his back, but despite Bader's strong college wrestling record, he hasn't shown an ability to apply his wrestling skills in the context of an MMA fight. Jackson by knockout.
Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Henderson
Mark: Ben Henderson is an extremely skilled fighter with great cardio who's also one of the bigger, stronger men fighting at 155. He's been on a tear of late, and now he has a shot at the lightweight strap.
The problem is, he has to fight Frankie Edgar for it. Edgar is one of the smaller lightweights, a man who doesn't have to cut much weight to hit 155. Like Henderson, he's a cardio machine. Insanely quick, he dances around the cage, darting in to land a strike and then angling away before his opponents can catch him. He is also, as he's shown in his last two fights against Gray Maynard, composed entirely of heart and toughness.
As good as Henderson is, Edgar is better, a champion at the top of his game who will successfully defend his title once again.
Kyle: Edgar is an Energizer Bunny with fists of stone. Henderson's a fluid fighter who's usually able to stay relaxed and push the pace, but I don't think he's going to be able to match Edgar's tempo. As the fight moves on into the championship rounds, Henderson, like B. J. Penn and Gray Maynard before him, is going to find himself falling a step behind. That's when Edgar will do enough damage to show. Edgar by decision.
With three disagreements, there's no way Kyle and I will tie, so when I report back tomorrow, one of us will have opened 2012 with a prediction win. Tune in then to see which of us it is!
As always, don't rely on us for betting advice!
February 24, 2012
Michelle Duggar wants to educate us
This story isn't news, but it remains amazing. You can read one take on it here, and on that page you can find a link to Mrs. Duggar's astounding document, "Seven Basic Needs of a Husband."
I'd never heard of Michelle Duggar until I stumbled across an online article about her, but apparently in some circles she's making quite a splash. She's particularly known for having, with her husband, Jim Duggar, nineteen (yes, 19) kids, a feat they have parlayed into a TV show.
In her increasingly famous advice about what husbands need, she offers women such gems as how to avoid destroying your husband's manliness (having financial independence is a bad thing), how to become more the wife of your husband's dreams (maintaining a hairstyle that shows submission is key), and how to show loyalty (you should never ask others for advice without his approval).
I'm particularly fascinated by the concept of hair that shows submission; exactly what is that?
For an interesting read that was, for me, as much a peak into an alternate reality as any SF/fantasy novel, check it out.
I'd never heard of Michelle Duggar until I stumbled across an online article about her, but apparently in some circles she's making quite a splash. She's particularly known for having, with her husband, Jim Duggar, nineteen (yes, 19) kids, a feat they have parlayed into a TV show.
In her increasingly famous advice about what husbands need, she offers women such gems as how to avoid destroying your husband's manliness (having financial independence is a bad thing), how to become more the wife of your husband's dreams (maintaining a hairstyle that shows submission is key), and how to show loyalty (you should never ask others for advice without his approval).
I'm particularly fascinated by the concept of hair that shows submission; exactly what is that?
For an interesting read that was, for me, as much a peak into an alternate reality as any SF/fantasy novel, check it out.
February 23, 2012
No TED for me
Monday brings the pre-conference activities for TED and TEDActive, the Palm Springs satellite simulcast that I've attended for the past several years. I was due to fly to Palm Springs on Sunday morning with Bill, so that we could attend those early activities and then the conference itself. As long-time readers know, this was one of my favorite weeks of each year, because the presentations and the gatherings always both lift and enlighten me.
I won't be going this year.
The reason is simple: I will instead be working from home, as I am this week, to finish No Going Back. I'm terribly late on this novel, and a very hard, already extended to the max deadline is staring at me.
I've seen writers rail at their publishers about such deadlines, but I absolutely cannot do that. This situation is entirely my fault. I can only praise Publisher Toni and the entire Baen team for accommodating my ever increasing lateness. They have done everything anyone could ask--and more--to help make the book appear in May. (It will now go on sale the last Tuesday in May instead of the first, another slip that is entirely my fault.)
I did this to myself, and now I will fix it by finishing and delivering a good book. That it costs me something I love is very unfortunate, but it is also fair that I pay for the error.
Now, I just have to make sure I can finish it!
I won't be going this year.
The reason is simple: I will instead be working from home, as I am this week, to finish No Going Back. I'm terribly late on this novel, and a very hard, already extended to the max deadline is staring at me.
I've seen writers rail at their publishers about such deadlines, but I absolutely cannot do that. This situation is entirely my fault. I can only praise Publisher Toni and the entire Baen team for accommodating my ever increasing lateness. They have done everything anyone could ask--and more--to help make the book appear in May. (It will now go on sale the last Tuesday in May instead of the first, another slip that is entirely my fault.)
I did this to myself, and now I will fix it by finishing and delivering a good book. That it costs me something I love is very unfortunate, but it is also fair that I pay for the error.
Now, I just have to make sure I can finish it!
