Carley Garner's Blog: What's new on DeCarleyTrading.com, page 55
April 15, 2012
Corn and Soybean Futures
**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
**Past performance is not indicative of future results
On the radar:
Mixed grains, where's the correlation?
Corn and Soybean Futures
April has historically been a relatively supportive month for corn and soybean futures. After all, there tends to be weather concerns (too wet or too cold) regarding potential planting delays and the supply of soybeans this time of year is often tight due to declining U.S. inventories and a South American harvest that is just getting started. Simply put, it is too early in the season for traders to be at ease.
Compliments of what looks to be a dismal South American harvest and a projected U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of well under 9%, soybean futures have rallied nearly 30% in a little over 3 months. In the meantime, large speculators have accumulated record net long positions. Yet, corn, despite its fairy tale ethanol "story", has yet to follow.
Corn and soybeans typically have a correlation coefficient of 90% or more, but recent action has displayed an odd decoupling of the relationship. In fact, the correlation over the previous 180 days has dropped to 79% and, although we don't have stats on it, we'd guess it is well under 50% when measuring from early February on. At some point, prices will look to normalize; this could mean corn will play catch up or beans will fall in sympathy to its yellow counterpart. We tend to believe the odds favor a corn rally to bring things back into line.
From a technical point of view, corn is somewhat vulnerable to follow through selling that brings prices to the lower end of the current trading range near $6.00 per bushel in the July futures contract. If global financial markets find a reason to continue the bloodletting, we could see the stops below $5.90 run which could see somewhere in the $5.75 range. However, we aren't counting on this scenario and believe the best trade will be from the long side on dips toward the $6.00 range (if seen). If we are right about support levels holding, corn prices could find minor resistance in the mid $6.60s with a price objective of about $6.90.
Soybeans, on the other hand, seems to have priced in a majority of the bullish fundamentals. In addition, with the "smart money" already extremely net long it might be difficult for the market to keep up the pace. Nevertheless, any selling pressure will likely prove to be a simple pause in the bull move and could provide opportunities for those willing to play the upside.
Many fundamental analysts, as well as our chart work, suggests "old crop" soybean futures could see prices in the $15.00 range (we've also seen projections for $16 beans but we'll take it one step at a time). In the meantime, should there be a temporary correction July beans could find support in the $13.80 area. If turmoil in the financial markets rears its ugly head, or there is some surprisingly bearish news for beans, it is possible we see a $13.25 print (but this scenario isn't expected).
Don't forget, April tends to be a positive month for grain futures...look for opportunities to be bullish on dips; but don't be afraid to be bearish on a small scale on the large rips. Pay attention to support and resistance levels!
DeCarley Trading
info@decarleytrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE (8723)
**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 OR MORE YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING, FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR YEAR. WHILE SEASONAL TRENDS MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CERTAIN COMMODITIES, SEASONAL ASPECTS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND HAVE BEEN FACTORED INTO FUTURES & OPTIONS MARKET PRICING. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST, OR WILL IN THE FUTURE, ACHIEVE PROFITS USING THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.
Crude Oil, calm before the storm?
This newsletter was emailed to DeCarley Trading clients on March 25th, 2012
**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
**Past performance is not indicative of future results
On the radar:
Crude Oil, calm before the storm?
Crude Oil Futures
Crude oil future have traded in a tight trading range for much of March; however, seasonal tendencies suggest the market "should" maintain an overall bullish bias for the next six months. According to the Commodity Trader's Almanac, the "best six months" for crude oil futures are March through September. Stats compiled over the last 25 years portray a moderate incline through the summer months and into fall but data taken from the last 5 years suggests a much stronger move.
According to the EIA, the most recent account of weekly crude inventories was reported to be a little over 346 million barrels. This is a slight decrease from the previous week and leaves inventories near the "upper limit of the average range for this time of year. In addition, net daily imports of crude oil are hovering near 8,700 barrels per day. Each of these factors have offered support to crude oil pricing but haven't lured fresh buyers into the market.
Although we aren't convinced the long-term fundamentals in crude oil are necessarily bullish at current levels, we do believe the path of least resistance will be higher in the near term. After all, market pricing is often influenced more by perception than it is reality
In addition, although there is (arguably) a $15 to $20 premium built into pricing as traders anticipate the possibility of Middle East violence and supply disruptions, there is still a substantial amount of headline risk. Any inclination of military action in, or at the hands of, Iran could quickly translate into another $15 to $20 gain in crude oil. Should this occur, it will likely be a great opportunity for the patient bears but in the meantime it is good enough reason to stay away from the market until volatility picks up.
Quiet trade between $109 and $104 won't last forever. We'll be looking for a breakout of the range that could bring the May contract to the $113/$114 area (which could happen as early as this week). Depending on how volatility on both sides of the market looks, we'll likely be interested in selling short strangles and or naked short calls well above the market. Stay tuned...
DeCarley Trading
info@decarleytrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE (8723)
**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 OR MORE YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING, FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR YEAR. WHILE SEASONAL TRENDS MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN CERTAIN COMMODITIES, SEASONAL ASPECTS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND HAVE BEEN FACTORED INTO FUTURES & OPTIONS MARKET PRICING. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST, OR WILL IN THE FUTURE, ACHIEVE PROFITS USING THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.
March 29, 2012
The Truth about Futures Commission
The Goal of Trading should be to MAKE Money, not to SAVE Money!Click here to view Carley's Stocks & Commodities Magazine column on this topic.
Everyone knows that commission is baggage; mathematically, every dollar spent on transaction costs directly reduces profits and increases losses but there is more to commission than math. For instance, traders paying highly discounted rates are given incentive to over trade and there is much more money to be lost by overzealous trading than there is in paying for a quality service. Similarly, if quality market research and trading recommendations can shorten the trading learning curve, or "save" traders from themselves...an extra dollar or two in commission might avoid thousands of dollars in costly market mishaps.
With discount futures brokers you get what you pay for:
1. Limitations, or high margin, for option selling
2. Heavy handed margin clerks for option sellers (unnecessary forced liquidation can be costly)
3. Limitations on products offered
4. Automatic account liquidation at 3:00 pm Central (day trading)
5. Inexperienced support staff (clerks, not brokers)
6. Little or no education or trader support, you are on your own
If you are trading with a discount firm, but are still losing money...maybe it's time to try something different.
With DeCarley Trading, we believe you will receive what you pay for and more; including but not limited to:
1. DeCarley Trading newsletters (Bond Bulletin, Stock Index Report, DeCarley Perspective) and trading recommendations (primarily short option trades in energies, currencies, grains, Treasuries and stock indices), The Hightower Report commodity newsletter, and other helpful research
2. Minimum span margins for all account sizes and trading strategies (option selling included)
3. Forced liquidation is a last resort to prevent accounts from losing more than is on deposit, but it not a day to day risk management tool
4. Access to ALL U.S. futures and options, and most of the popular overseas products
5. Experienced brokerage staff, friendly, helpful and efficient support
6. And much more...(see link below for specific service levels and rates)
Click here to view Carley's Stocks & Commodities Magazine column on futures trading commission rates and services.
Click here to view the commission schedule (Online Pro rates start at $7 round turn plus fees and go down from there for qualified accounts), if you would like to see a description of each service level, click here.
To open a trading account with DeCarley to utilize our state of the art trading platforms or trade a full service account, click here and complete an online application.
DeCarley Trading
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
702-947-0701
info@decarleytrading.com
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES, FOREX AND OPTIONS!
March 8, 2012
Currency Option Trading: FOREX vs. Futures
Currency Option Trading: FOREX vs. Futures
When: March 22nd, 2012 @ 3:30 pm Central
Where: Online
What: A look at various currency option venues with "Currency Trading" author, Carley Garner
How:
Option trading provides the opportunity to manage risk, and create a strategy that conforms to the individual personalities and risk tolerance of each trader. However, currency traders have more "options" than traders in other asset classes. Before it is possible to become proficient in trading options, you had better take the time to fully understand each trading venue and currency; only then will you be able to determine which will be optimal for your trading strategy and style.
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FOREX Options vs. Futures Options
Vanilla options or exotic?
Being aware of currency option liquidity
Picking markets, picking strikes and picking trades
And more
www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS!
February 27, 2012
See DeCarley Trading in Currency Trader Magazine
Complimentary download of the magazine, and DeCarley Trading article, "Avoiding FX Trading Mishaps with the COT Report", click here.
February 24, 2012
Option Trading Toolkit
Click here to take advantage of this FREE offer!
SFO Magazine Subscription
FREE e-book from Traders Press
FREE pass to the Options Room
Paul Forchione Weekly Options Report
25 Proven Strategies for trading options on CME Group futures
FREE subscription to Diversified Investments in Efficient Markets (DIEM) eNewsletter, a futures options strategy update
The information provided herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable. However, it is intended for purposes of information and education only and is not guaranteed by CME Group, Inc. or any of its subsidiaries as to accuracy, completeness, nor any trading result and does not constitute trading advice or constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. The Rulebook of the applicable exchange should be consulted as the authoritative source on all current contract specifications.
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globex logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, E–mini and Globex are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
February 6, 2012
Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets
"Once again, Carley Garner demonstrates her ability to boil down complex concepts for individual traders. Trading Currencies in the FOREX and Futures Market will put budding currency traders ahead of the curve with its unique blend of the basics and some refreshingly unexpected material." ~ Karris Golden, Traders Press®
"Carley is a smart trader and broker; she understands the markets and the importance of educating traders. Her new FOREX book is a good addition to her other efforts "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" and "Commodity Options". Taking on FOREX is not an easy thing to do but Carley nailed this one. MrTopStep.con gives a big thumbs up to Trading Currencies in the FOREX and Futures Markets". ~ Danny Riley, President MrTopStep.com.
"It is not easy to write about a complex topic like currency trading in words that anyone can understand. In that respect, Carley Garner hit a home run with this book. She clearly spells out the advantages and potential pitfalls to trading Forex today. It is a must-read for any investor considering exploring currency trading." ~ Frederic Ruffy, Market Strategist at Trade Alert, LLC.
For more information on Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets, visit www.currencytradingthebook.com !
To purchase this or other books written by Carley Garner, click here.
DeCarley Trading offers superior service at competitive rates for brokerage services in FX, futures and options on futures. Visit www.DeCarleyTrading.com for details.
DeCarley Trading
1-866-TRADE(8723)
702-944-0701
info@decarleytrading.com
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX!
January 24, 2012
FOREX Trading Math: Fractions, Decimals, Quotes and Your Money!
FOREX Trading Math: Fractions, Decimals, Quotes and Your Money!
When: February 16th, 2012 @ 3:30 pm Central
Where: Online
What: Getting to know FOREX with "Currency Trading" author, Carley Garner
How:
Perhaps the most intimidating aspect of trading currencies in the FOREX market is the complex mathematics required to calculate profit, loss, and risk. With the convenience of modern trading platforms, the grunt work is done for traders automatically but that doesn't mean traders shouldn't have a full understanding of how the numbers they see on their statements, and in their trading platforms, are derived.
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Join us to discuss in detail the following topics:
Mechanics of pairs trading
Calculating pips and profit
Calculating and understanding margin and leverage
What does a quote of $1.3225 in the Euro REALLY mean
The "new" pip...dealing in fractions of a pip within a trading platform
And more!
www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS!
January 16, 2012
Why trade FOREX with DeCarley?
Why trade FOREX with DeCarley?
Self-directed online trade placement or broker assisted (full service) order entry via phone, email or text message (during designated U.S. market hours).
Ability to quickly execute orders via broker or trade desk 24 hours should you experience technical issues.
Reliable and resourceful service available nearly 15 hours per day!
Access to DeCarley Trading client newsletters, Trading Central FOREX newsletter, and the popular Hightower commodity research newsletter.
State of the art trading platforms (click here for info and demo):MT4
BESTDirect NinjaTrader
BESTDirect 8
BESTDirect Mobile
BESTDirect Pro Trader
BESTDirect Navigator
eSignal for BESTDirect
MT4 users have access to AutoChartist research!
Direct access to a competitive ECN (Electronic Currency Network) with several banks and institutions as liquidity providers (AKA tight bid and ask spreads).
Avoid dealing desk brokers that act as the counterparty to client trades (trading against the house).
Access to PFGBEST's competent and friendly support staff!
Click here for PFGBEST's FOREX Basics brochure.
Click here to pre-order Carley Garner's newest book "Trading Currencies in the FOREX and Futures Markets".
"Getting Started in Currency Trading" webinar archive.
"Getting Started in Currency Trading Part 2" webinar archive.
DeCarley Trading
info@decarleytrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
*There is substantial risk in trading futures and FOREX!
January 5, 2012
What's in store for futures in 2012?
Order your copy of the 2012 Outlook today!
Looking ahead six months, what shifts are foretold in market fundamentals and liquidity? PFGBEST Research will give you succinct analysis that takes the routine blogs and customer communications of their skilled analysts to a new level!
What factors will be most critical to institutional forex traders? Why? Retail FX traders also want to know what insights the professional desk traders at PFGBEST have to offer!
Energy markets are more volatile, and you need to know what Phil Flynn, one of the best-known energy and commodity commentators in the country, thinks is coming up!
What is the likelihood that stock indices will follow established trends, or will there be political lashing out (or worsening economic chaos) that will result in volatile breakouts that the charts are not yet indicating?
Precious metals -- retracing to gather steam or not so much?
One of the foremost forecasters of USDA grain reports, Tim Hannagan, will advise on changes with U.S. export opportunities (pro and con) plus final tallies on 2011 production, and market psychology going into the New Year.
Bob Short gives a short report on livestock and meats markets but don't let his brevity fool you. The man is an encyclopedia of current and past conditions that will provide seasonal trading signals NOW.
On soft commodities, researcher/trader Robin Rosenberg asks and answers bigger questions, since climate, weather and global economic factors are so impactful to Third World producers!
Order your copy of the 2012 Outlook today!
DeCarley Trading is an introducing broker for PFG, click here for a description of the relationship.
Click here to open a trading account with DeCarley to utilize one of our state of the art trading platforms or an experienced full-service broker.
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
info@decarleytrading.com
**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options!
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