Carley Garner's Blog: What's new on DeCarleyTrading.com, page 50
July 31, 2013
Futures Risk Management with Options
Have you ever been stopped out of a trade only to watch the market move in the intended direction without you?
Use Options, Not Stop Orders For Risk Management
Regardless of your strategy, time frame, experience level or account funding—if you have ever traded futures, you have almost certainly experienced the agony of watching a market move without you following an untimely market exit.
Whether you are stopped out, ran out of margin money, or simply can’t take the pain any longer; once you are on the sidelines it is impossible to recover from a poorly-timed speculation. In addition, traders using stop loss orders are exposed to the risk of prices gapping through their stated price, excessive fill slippage, and even limit up or limit down moves.
Unfortunately, there are no mulligans in trading, but there is a way traders can enter the market with lasting power, defined risk management (even during limit moves), and peace of mind—synthetic calls and puts.
To continue reading this article, click here!
DeCarley Trading
info@decarleytrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS!
DeCarley Crude Oil Market Analysis on Mad Money
Crude oil has been the source of pain for consumers at the pump, but the same can be said of many speculators. It's volatile and relentless nature can be challenging for those on the wrong side of a sudden runaway move. Accordingly, it is important to take a step back and look at the big picture...that is exactly what we did.
One of our recent issues of the DeCarley Perspective, was featured on CNBC's Mad Money on July 30th. The DeCarley Perspective is a publication distributed exclusively to DeCarley's brokerage clients. If you are interested in being part of the loop, open a trading account today!
Click here to view the archive of the Off the Chart Segment with DeCarley analysis on aired on July 30th!
You will find the original DeCarley Trading newsletter text here:
DeCarley Perspective emailed to our brokerage clients: http://mad.ly/115fe3
If you haven't already enjoyed a trial of DeCarley Trading newsletters, you can register here.
If you would like to open an account to trade via one of our state-of-the-art trading platforms, or with an experienced broker, click here.
DeCarley Trading
info@decarleytrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS!
July 1, 2013
See Our Gold Futures Market Analysis on Mad Money
The truth is, gold futures have been a brutally treacherous trading arena and is better left untouched for most traders. Nonetheless, action in gold will impact action in other commodities and even the financial markets so it is imperative that we are all paying attention!
One of our recent issues of the DeCarley Perspective, was featured on CNBC's Mad Money last week. The DeCarley Perspective is a publication distributed exclusively to DeCarley's brokerage clients. If you are interested in being part of the loop, open a trading account today!
Click here to check out the archive of the June 28th segment featuring DeCarley analysis!
You will find the original DeCarley Trading newsletter text here:
DeCarley Perspective Emailed June 26: http://mad.ly/9b49d3
DeCarley Perspective Emailed June 28: http://mad.ly/e71bd3
If you haven't already enjoyed a trial of DeCarley Trading newsletters, you can register here.
**If you would like to open an account to trade via one of our state-of-the-art trading platforms, or with an experienced broker, click here.**
DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
***THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS!**
June 21, 2013
Common Sense to Deleverage Futures Trading
When: June 26th 4:30 Eastern
How: Click here to register for this FREE futures and options trading education class
Trading is a game of odds, if you are not doing everything you can to put the odds in your favor, then you are putting the odds in the favor of your competition. We believe that humility is the secret to increasing a trader's probability of success in that it encourages traders to accept the potential of mis-speculation.
Click here to register for this FREE futures and options trading education class
COVERED TOPICS
- Simple Trading Rules to Live (or Die) by
- Deleveraging Speculation with Common Sense
- Using the Versatility of Options to Reduce Position Volatility
- Constructing Synthetic Calls and Puts
- Adjusting Synthetic Positions in Favorable and Adverse Market Conditions
- The Only Magic in Trading: Humility
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
*There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options!
April 24, 2013
Zaner360 Trading Platform Tutorial
We are proud to offer FREE access to the Zaner360 Futures, Options and FOREX trading platform to DeCarley Trading clients. Although our brokerage clients have access nearly 20 trading platforms via their DeCarley account, we believe that the Zaner360 is an optimal choice for the average trader.
The Zaner360 is capable of offering traders quick and efficient order entry with the advanced strategy and charting capabilities today's futures and options traders have come to expect.
If you would like to open an account to trade with DeCarley using this platform, please click here.
If you would like to open an account to trade with an experience broker, or with another trading platform please contact us for details.
Zaner360 Trading Platform Tutorial
We are proud to offer FREE access to the Zaner360 Futures, Options and FOREX trading platform to DeCarley Trading clients. Although our brokerage clients have access nearly 20 trading platforms via their DeCarley account, we believe that the Zaner360 is an optimal choice for the average trader.
The Zaner360 is capable of offering traders quick and efficient order entry with the advanced strategy and charting capabilities today's futures, options and FX traders have come to expect.
{mp4}Zaner 360 Tutorial Final Complete{/mp4}
If you would like to open an account to trade with DeCarley using this platform, please click here.
If you would like to open an account to trade with an experience broker, or with another trading platform please contact us for deails.
DeCarley Trading (a Division of the Zaner Group)
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
*There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
April 17, 2013
Goldman broke the gold market
****There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.**
****Past performance is not indicative of future results**
On the radar:
• In the aftermath of the LARGEST one day drop in gold, many of you are asking what's next for the so-called "safe haven". The best seat in the house is from the sidelines, but here are our thoughts.
Goldman Sachs broke the gold market's back...but panic lead it to slaughter
All markets are subject to emotional trade, but the precious metals markets tend to be among the worst offenders when it comes to exuberance. This is true in both a bull and bear market; even worse, occasional chaos can be exaggerated by margin calls because a substantial amount of gold trading is done on leverage. Even unleveraged gold ETFs backed by bullion are not immune from the impact of margin call selling because the two markets are tied together. Further, gold is one of the few commodities in which its supply and demand fundamentals are not largely based on consumption; instead, the need for gold is a primary function of fear, skepticism, and greed.
It is worth noting the fundamental landscape before we dive into the chart work. As the global economy works its way out of the financial crisis, the luster of gold has faded as an alternative currency or a means to hedge against a system failure domestically or abroad. In addition to decreasing demand at the hands of waning economic risks, the supply of gold is on the rise putting pressure on prices. This is not surprising; as is the case with all extracted or grown commodities, higher prices lures additional production. From 2008 to 2011 the total world gold mine production increased by about 15%. However, demand continues to outweigh supply, giving the bulls a long-term edge despite short-term weakness.
Goldman Sachs issued a bearish recommendation on gold last week, and the market immediately reacted. In our opinion, a move under $1,500 was in the cards prior to Goldman’s analysis being released, but it certainly seems to have sped up the process. Goldman’s downside target was $1,450 per ounce; this level turned out to be the starting point of the accelerated selling rather than the end and will likely act as resistance on the way back up. After Monday’s bloodbath, we suspect most of the reaction to the Goldman report is accounted for. Nonetheless, seasonal pressures remain overall neutral to bearish in this market for the next few weeks, so there could still be some follow through selling before a longer term bottom can be formed.
Until now, the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program has avoided a complete collapse in gold pricing compliments of amped expectations of inflation and devalued the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, indications that QE could be winding down helped to pull the rug from under pricing in recent sessions.
In the coming months we feel like the major driving force behind gold prices will be inflation, or the speculation thereof. Although inflation hasn’t reared its ugly head yet, traders will likely anticipate it to be a risk going forward due to the current monetary policy. Once panic subsides, this should keep some sort of floor under gold pricing.
We often look at the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report for information on which groups of traders are playing the market in which direction. The C.O.T. Report typically isn’t quite as useful in gold analysis as it is some of the other commodity markets simply because speculators, both large and small, are almost always net long gold. However, we did find some rather valuable information in the latest reading; the large speculators, who are assumed to be the “smart money” but aren’t always on the right side of the trade, are holding the smallest net long position since mid-2012. On the last occasion that this group has been so mildly bullish, gold prices made a run from about $1,530 to $1,790. In our view, this stat leaves plenty of room for the market to move on the upside once the selling is exhausted.
Going to a weekly gold chart, we discovered that the recent sell-off has caused the RSI to dip below 30 for the first time until well before the financial crisis. In fact, going back a decade we couldn’t find an instance in which the gold market was more over sold than it is now; at least according to what is typically a relatively trusty RSI (Relative Strength Index).
Gold prices have fallen precipitously in recent sessions, but one man’s pain might be another’s joy. Long-term gold bulls might find opportunity in getting bullish gold at highly discounted prices. Our charts suggest strong support near $1,320, which held in overnight trade, and psychological support near $1,305. We expect these levels to hold for now, but we can’t rule out a retest of the lows or slightly new lows to the $1,285 area.
Although catching the falling knife is a dangerous game, it appears as though prices are becoming attractive as a value play. With that said, don’t let the “safe haven” description of the gold market fool you; any speculative play in gold should be reserved for a small portion of your trading capital, both the risks and the rewards are super-charged in this market. This is not a market for the faint of heart!
Assuming support near $1,320 through $1,305 continues to hold, a routine bounce back from oversold levels would mean a run to about $1,450. This is approximately the downside target issued by Goldman Sachs, but is also the sharp down-trend resistance line. If this price is penetrated it, which we eventually expect to the be case, the oversold bounce becomes something more. We suspect momentum could trigger a move to wedge resistance near $1,500. Should prices break this level, it could be off to the races toward $1,620. Although we aren't counting on the rally to see $1,670 it certainly isn't out of the question based on the current down-trend channel.
When attempting to predict the future price of gold, it makes sense to perform similar technical analysis on the U.S. Dollar. Because gold is priced in dollars, the two markets tend to trade inversely more often than not. It should be known that the current degree of negative correlation, as measured by the previous 180 trading days, is 66%. In other words, while there is a strong negative relationship they are not perfectly negatively correlated. Nevertheless, the direction of the dollar will impact gold prices and the dollar chart appears to corroborate the possibility of looming gold support, and possibly even a reversal.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is one of the slower moving oscillators and can be used to identify trends and possibly waning momentum. The MACD lines continues to point higher for the U.S. dollar, which tells us a new high in the greenback is in the cards. However, the lines are also beginning to taper to a more neutral stance which could mean the upside in the dollar is limited. In our best estimation, we feel like the mid 84s in the dollar index will hold and entice trade to weaken toward the lower end of the trading range. If so, this should be supportive toward gold prices, and other commodities for that matter. Assuming we are right, look for support on the way down near 81.15 and again near 79.30.
If you "must" play this treacherous market and want to hold a position for a long-term or swing trade. We suggest you consider using the e-micro futures contract. The e-micro futures makes or loses $10 per $1 price change in gold. Profit and loss can still add up in a fast moving market, but the decreased leverage will be welcomed if volatility remains elevated.
DeCarley Trading
Twitter:@carleygarner
info@decarleytrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE(8723
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.CurrencyTradingtheBook.com
Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.
**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.**
See DeCarley Commodity Market Analysis on Mad Money
Jim Cramer's "Off the Charts" segment used Carley Garner's Gold analysis in last night's show!
The truth is, gold has been a brutally treacherous trading arena and is better left untouched for most traders. Nonetheless, action in gold will impact action in other commodities and even the financial markets so it is imperative that we are all paying attention!
One of our recent issues of the DeCarley Perspective, was featured on CNBC's Mad Money last night. The DeCarley Perspective is a publication distributed exclusively to DeCarley's brokerage clients. If you are interested in being part of the loop, open a trading account today!
Click here to check out the archive of the April 16th segment featuring DeCarley analysis!
Free shipping and 27% off at Amazon.com
You will find the original DeCarley Trading newsletter text here.
If you haven't already enjoyed a trial of DeCarley Trading newsletters, you can register here.
If you would like to open an account to trade via one of our state-of-the-art trading platforms, or with an experienced broker, click here.
DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS!
March 20, 2013
DeCarley Analysis was "Off the Chart" with Jim Cramer
DeCarley Trading brokerage clients enjoy complimentary market commentary and strategy reports written by Carley Garner as well as several well-respected third party providers. Whether you are trading commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, corn, soy beans and gold, or financials such as the 10-year note and the e-mini S&P, DeCarley offers actionable newsletter guidance.
One of our recent issues of the DeCarley Perspective, was featured on CNBC's Mad Money last night...
Click here to check out the archive of the segment!
You will find the original DeCarley Trading newsletter text here
If you haven't already enjoyed a trial of DeCarley Trading newsletters, you can register for free here.
If you would like to open an account to trade via one of our state-of-the-art trading platforms, or with an experienced broker, click here.
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
info@decarleytrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com
February 19, 2013
Option Trading 201, Spreads and Strategies
Part 2 of 2, Getting Started in Option Trading
When: February 25th 3:30 pm Central
Where: Online
Click here to register for this FREE class
In Option Trading 101 hosted in by Big Mike's Trading forum, we covered the basics of option trading such as defining outright calls and puts, the advantages and disadvantages to options, evaluating market conditions, and thinking outside of the box.
To review part 1 of this option trading series, please visit the archive ( click here ).
There are an unlimited number of "options" available to option traders. Through combinations of long and short futures and options, traders of all types, sizes and skill levels can create an appropriate means of speculation. Join us on February 25th to discuss the following topics:
Using short options to finance long options
Selling options to provide room for error in option positions
Trading debit spreads - Adjusting bull call and bear put spreads with additional premium collection
Trading examples with risk and break even analysis
Click here to register for this FREE class
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE(8723)
*There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options!
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