Torn MacAlester's Blog, page 10
July 10, 2023
A Paradox: A Description of the Fermi Paradox by Torn MacAlester
It Starts With A ParadoxPart 2 of World Building for Science Fiction Part 2—It Starts With A Paradox by Torn MacAlester Photo by Rakicevic Nenad from Pexels The Fermi Paradox The Fermi paradox tries to answer: Where are they (the aliens)? It looks at how fast travel is across the galaxy. It says by inference the time […] 
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July 7, 2023
The Soldier: A Vignette by Torn MacAlester
The Soldier
Y+0
Granger realized that the whirlwind month had ended as he headed to the Greyhound bus, hoping to see if he could get a trip. According to the sergeant in the discharge barracks, his chances of getting a home trip to Wyoming were next to nothing. He had the Army travel voucher and four hundred bucks in cash–enough to last maybe two weeks, if his luck held.
In the hazy twilight, he made note of the limousine pulled up along the curb. Two men were shouting at each other along its far side. Granger noticed that the larger man had something clinched in his fist, threatening the smaller man. Granger crossed the street quickly and dropped his duffle-bag on the ground behind the larger man. The man turned, holding an eighteen-inch section of two-inch pipe.
“What do you want?” The large man said in a heavy Texas accent. “Mister fancy pants was about to give me a ride.”
“I don’t think he was about to do any such thing,” Granger said.
“Please, I was telling the gentleman that my driver will be just–” started the smaller man, in an almost condescending tone.
“Shut your fast-talking mouth,” the larger man said, raising the pipe.
“I’ll give you a count of one to drop that pipe,” said Granger, smelling the whisky on the other man’s breath.
The large man continued to raise the pipe and stepped toward Granger. Taking a small step forward, Granger rolled the man over his shoulder easily and twisted his arm, forcing the pipe from his grip and dropping the large man to the ground.
“Once more chance, Cowboy,” Granger said. “Take off and pick on someone else.”
The man spat and reached for the pipe. Granger put his foot on his hand, grinding it against the concrete.
“Leave it,” said Granger.
The man stood and then stumbled off, obviously drunk.
“That was quite impressive,” said the shorter man.
“There was nothing to it,” said Granger. “I hope your driver will be along in a minute and you can get out of here.”
“You see, that is the trouble.”
“You don’t have a driver.”
“No, not as of an hour ago,” said the man.
“I take it that Cowboy there wasn’t applying for the job.”
“No, that was an unfortunate misunderstanding.”
“I can drive it,” said Granger. “But I don’t have a limo license.”
“I’ll take you up on that if I cannot find one at the bus station.”
“Suit yourself.”
Granger picked up the duffle bag and the pipe. He tossed the pipe into a garbage bin.
“Can I get your name?” asked the man.
“Granger. Excuse me–Army the past couple of years–Stanley Granger.”
“Morris Mason. Good to meet you–what rank did you say.”
“No rank now, it seems. Yellowstone finished that off.”
“Of course, Mister Granger.”
“If I can help you find that driver now, I’m also trying to see if there is any way to get to Wyoming.”
“If you need to get to Wyoming, I’ll see that you get there.
“Thank you, sir, but–”
“Nonsense, you’ve already put yourself in my debt. It’s the least I can do,” said Morris.
“Dealing with Cowboy was not any trouble. It looked like you needed the help.”
“I insist. Let’s go in and see about a driver, Mister Granger.”
***
The clerk looked bored and didn’t seem to notice them walk up. “Busses are now once a week on Friday–the only destinations are Dallas and Houston,” the woman muttered, not even looking up.
“I am looking for a driver,” Morris said as Granger looked on.
“You’re looking at her, but the bus won’t be here until Friday morning.”
“I actually need the services of a driver,” continued Morris. “Would you be willing to drive us to Dallas?”
“Not unless you got a thousand bucks.”
“Now there is a deal,” Morris said. “Miss?”
“It’s just Sue,” she said.
“That seems steep,” said Granger.
“It doesn’t seem like you’re paying. Does it?” said Sue.
“Quite perceptive, Sue.” Morris said.
“I was serious, though,” she said.
“I didn’t think you were joking,” said Morris. “In fact, if you are ready to go in five minutes, I can raise it to three thousand.”
“Okay, what am I driving?” asked Sue, looking at Granger.
“The limo outside,” said Granger.
“Okay,” she said. “What are your names?”
“I’m Stanley. This is Morris.”
“Morris, the moneybags,” she said.
“Mason,” said Morris.
“Like Mason Oil?” she asked.
“None other,” said Morris.
“Really,” said Granger.
“Who did you think?” Morris asked.
“I really never considered it,” Granger answered.
“Well, now that we are all equally shocked now after an apocalypse, can we get going? I’d like to earn the three grand,” said Sue.
The post The Soldier: A Vignette by Torn MacAlester appeared first on Torn Macalester.
July 6, 2023
Sins of the Son: A Vignette by Torn MacAlester
The post Sins of the Son: A Vignette by Torn MacAlester appeared first on Torn Macalester.
July 5, 2023
Chat on Discord: WED JUL 5th, 9PM EDT
DiscussionsEach Week, Torn hosts a discussion on his discord channel: Torn MacAlester Science Fiction. Join the discussion and learn what he thinks about prior to writing his science fiction stories. Week of Jul 2, 2023 [2nd Jul at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 5th Jul 9 PM EDT (6th 2AM GMT)] Artemis 1 […] Discord Channel The post Chat on Discord: WED JUL 5th, 9PM EDT appeared first on Torn Macalester.
July 3, 2023
Decisions: A Vignette by Torn MacAlester
Decisions
Y+13
Nils heard Katie enter the room as he finished typing the letter and sent it to the printer. He’d been using the back bedroom as an office ever since they had moved to Houston. He’d set up a communications center in the room so that Katie could keep in communication with him whenever he spent some time in space. At one time, he thought it would not have been necessary. It turned out it became unnecessary, but for a completely different reason than he imagined.
“What are you doing?” asked Katie with her heavy Texas drawl.
“I’m writing my resignation,” answered Nils.
“Okay. Why?”
“Because it looks like they have no intention of sending me to the Moon again.”
“And that’s bad because?”
“Without going to the Moon, there is no point in being an astronaut.”
“That’s silly,” she said. “There are other destinations.”
“Not for me.”
“Alrighty, I’ll call Mom. We can move back to Dallas after you resign.”
“What?” he asked, dumbfounded.
“Don’t expect me to live down here near the hurricanes if you aren’t planning to be an astronaut anymore.”
“There haven’t been only three per year since Yellowstone. None of them have had landfall within two hundred miles of here.”
“Good,” Katie said. “Now we won’t have to worry anymore. And I can see Mom more than once per month.”
“Fine. We’ll move to Dallas—for now.”
“Great. I’ll tell Mom.”
“I need to get over there and give them my resignation, back by six.”
******
“I thought you said you’d be home by six,” she said. “Dinner is a mess.”
“You didn’t get my text?” Nils asked.
“What text?”
“The one I sent you about five.”
“Oh, the one that said, ‘Milt and I are talking, be home later’”, she said. “Is that it?”
“Yup.”
“When you said later, I didn’t think you’d mean past eight.”
“What’s going on?” said Nils. “I don’t understand,”
“I wanted to celebrate you not having to risk your life all the time in space. It was your passion, but it made me a wreck.”
“Oh.”
“Now that you won’t be doing it anymore, I thought we’d have a normal life.”
“You’re not understanding my intentions, Katie. I’m leaving the Space Agency, but I’m planning to go to the Moon another way.”
Seeing the tears in her eyes, he realized he had destroyed her hopes by restoring his own. She would never join him in space, like he had imagined.
The post Decisions: A Vignette by Torn MacAlester appeared first on Torn Macalester.
May 8, 2023
Torn’s Science, Technology, & Science Fiction 1–7 May 2023
Featured Science Fiction and the Drake EquationI started thinking about one of the classic authors of science fiction, and the setting he created for some of his stories. I often wondered what the implications for the Drake equation would be in that particular setting. I’ve taken a subset of the stories for this setting, since not all of the story settings are self-consistent. Let me review the three conditions from four books:
Humanity discovers that there are ancient alien civilizations on both Mars and Venus.Life is found on Ganymede.The first two interstellar locations visited by humanity have life, and one of them has an alien civilization.This is a significant difference from our recent discussions about the Drake equation applied to the universe as we know it.
Lets first look at the probability of life.
In the stories, there is no indication of there being life on the Moon other than the life in the domed colonies that humanity put there. There is also no indication of life on any other of Jupiter’s moons, nor any of Saturn’s.
Assuming we only count Io, Europa, and Calisto from Jupiter, and Titan from Saturn, we have a total of 4 bodies with life and 5 bodies without. This gives a chance of a planet having life at 44.4%.
Next, we look at the probability of planets having life also having intelligent life.
With Venus, Earth, and Mars all having intelligent life, it follows that 0.75 of all life bearing planets have life evolving to intelligence. If we include the other two planets from outside the solar system, we find four out of five planets, or 80%.
Extending this to the galaxy, we move on to attempt finding the number of civilizations that are present.
The initial value for the probability of a star having planets at roughly the time these stories was written is about 0.1; however, we have the fact that at least two stars have planets besides the Sun. This can be excepted as true since we don’t have enough evidence to set it at any other value. (Note: the author’s later work introduced a multitude of worlds but the all supported life, but this really didn’t talk about all stars or all worlds within the solar systems).
The number of planets within such a system is an average of nine, one, and one (I don’t recall seeing additional planets mentioned in these systems). We’ll set that average to be 4.
The fractional number of worlds having life is 0.44, and the fraction having intelligent life is 0.8.
The fraction of those civilizations having the ability for interstellar communications will be assumed to be 0.5, only Earth and Mars.
This give f*(0.1)*(4)*(0.44)*(0.8)*(0.5)*L, where f is the stellar formation rate and L is the lifetime of the technological civilization. Thus the number of civilizations in the galaxy is f*L*(0.07). Given that the stars form approximately 1 per year, and that we take the lifetime of a civilization to be a million years (using the fact that Mars was on the verge of collapse after a million years), we can now estimate that in this author’s milky way galaxy would contain 70 thousand civilizations.
For details of this calculation see my article on the Drake Equation:
The Drake EquationIntroduction: Drake equation developed the equation: where is the rate of star formation, is the fraction of stars that have planets, average number of planets per star that could support life, is the fraction of planets that have life, is the fraction having intelligent life, is the fraction that develops sufficient technology, and is the […]Mind you, it’s been a while since I read the four books mentioned above. For those wanting to look for themselves for something I have missed, they are: Between Planets, Farmer in the Sky, Universe/Common-Sense, and Methuselah’s Children by Robert A. Heinlein. Another Novel of his, that is in one way contradictory to the others, seems to nail the idea of the galaxy having thousands of civilizations: Have Spacesuit Will Travel.
This week’s discord chat Week of May 7 2023 [7th at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 10 9 PM EDT (11th 2AM GMT)]The Drake Equation and a Classic Science Fiction UniverseWeek of Mar 14 2023 [14th at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 17th at 9 PM EDT (18th 2 AM GMT)]TBD Torn’s Discord Server Currently ReadingEmbers of War by Gareth L. Powell
The Space Environment: Implications for Spacecraft Design — Revised and Expanded Edition by Alan C. Tribble
Lunar Sourcebook: a Users Guide to the Moon edited by Grant H. Heiken, David T. Vaniman, and Bevan M. French
Recently Read
2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
Destination—Death by Wilber S. Peacock
The New Frontiers Series, Book One: The Ship by Jack L. Knapp
Thunder Moon Tussle by Torn MacAlester available on Amazon.com
Thunder Moon Tussle Trailer A new novel by Torn MacAlesterThe long awaited sequel to
Thunder Moon Tussle
:
Mask of the Joyful Moon
Coming Soon [image error] [image error] In the days of grant driven science, it is nice to see the lone independent researcher still making a contribution. Imagine taking this far into the future while checking out this article from the Lunar and Planetary Institute.
Citizen Science in Planetary Exploration: Part 1 — LPIBNote from the Editors: In this two-part series we explore the role that citizen scientists (or amateur astronomers) play in supporting planetary exploration in the U.S. and internationally. In Part 1, Drs. Nick Lang and Michael Kelley explore the active programs that NASA uses to engage directly wit…This Week’s Short Fiction by Torn MacAlester This week’s short fiction is the vignette Rejection.
RejectionBy Torn MacAlester Photo by Life Of Pix from Pexels “Deputy Miller, a serious situation has risen.” Alex said, cleaning a lunar beer mug as he spoke. “Like what?” Miller answered, clearly disinterested in the Conrad Station barkeep’s current crisis. She checked her watch. Miller knew Nils Carmike’s schedule like the back of her hand. He would soon […]Electrical Charges This activity may suggest modification of terms in the Drake Equation:
Newly discovered electrical activity within cells could change the way researchers think about biological chemistryThe human body relies heavily on electrical charges. Lightning-like pulses of energy fly through the brain and nerves and most biological processes depend on electrical ions traveling across the membranes of each cell in our body.
A large hunk of the asteroid that is responsible for the biggest crater in the solar system remains imbedded in the mantle of the Moon.
Mass anomaly detected under the moon’s largest craterA mysterious large mass of material has been discovered beneath the largest crater in our solar system—the Moon’s South Pole-Aitken basin—and may contain metal from the asteroid that crashed into the Moon and formed the crater, according to a Baylor University study.The post Torn’s Science, Technology, & Science Fiction 1–7 May 2023 appeared first on Torn Macalester.
April 30, 2023
Torn’s Science, Technology, & Science Fiction 24–30 April 2023
Featured RedundancySeeing SpaceX’s prototype starship explode after launch reminded me of the necessity of redundancy in launch systems. I think back 10 years when over a short time span when Orbital, SpaceX, and Roscosmos all had anomalies with their cargo missions bound for the International Space Station. Without redundancy in capability, a launch failure in an operational system would have risked the ISS being abandoned.
Now that Moon missions are around the corner, we are reminded that redundancy will be essential to keep exploring. Right now, there are four systems that usable for human space flight to the Moon, SLS, Falcon Heavy, Long March 9, and Starship. So far, none of them have handled crews. We’ll have to wait a while for these systems to mature.
Starship Test LaunchArtemis 1 (SLS) Launch NASA Administrator Comments
Nelson expects SpaceX to be ready for next Starship launch within monthsNASA Administrator Bill Nelson told a House committee that SpaceX’s truncated Starship test flight was not a major setback for the Artemis program.This week’s discord chat Week of Apr 30 2023 [30th April at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 3rd May at 9 PM EDT (6th 2AM GMT)]Redundancy in technology Torn’s Discord Server Currently Reading
The Space Environment: Implications for Spacecraft Design — Revised and Expanded Edition by Alan C. Tribble
Lunar Sourcebook: a Users Guide to the Moon edited by Grant H. Heiken, David T. Vaniman, and Bevan M. French
Recently Read
2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
Destination—Death by Wilber S. Peacock
The New Frontiers Series, Book One: The Ship by Jack L. Knapp
Thunder Moon Tussle by Torn MacAlester available on Amazon.com
Thunder Moon Tussle Trailer A new novel by Torn MacAlesterThe long awaited sequel to
Thunder Moon Tussle
:
Mask of the Joyful Moon
Coming Soon [image error] [image error] In the days of grant driven science, it is nice to see the lone independent researcher still making a contribution. Imagine taking this far into the future while checking out this article from the Lunar and Planetary Institute.
Citizen Science in Planetary Exploration: Part 1 — LPIBNote from the Editors: In this two-part series we explore the role that citizen scientists (or amateur astronomers) play in supporting planetary exploration in the U.S. and internationally. In Part 1, Drs. Nick Lang and Michael Kelley explore the active programs that NASA uses to engage directly wit…This Week’s Short Fiction by Torn MacAlester This week’s short fiction is the short story Morgan’s Road:
Morgan’s Road a short story by Torn MacAlesterMorgan’s Road, a short story by Torn MacAlester Graphic by Shannan Albright Making a living on the Moon is not for everyone, but Nelson Carmike actually preferred the airless basalt plains over Earth’s windy prairies. Unfortunately, three years of Moon prospecting left him penniless, and without funds for supplies he was doomed to face a […] 
Chandra X‑ray Observatory identifies new stellar danger to planetsAstronomers using data from NASA’s Chandra X‑ray Observatory and other telescopes have identified a new threat to life on planets like Earth: a phase during which intense X‑rays from exploded stars can affect planets over 100 light-years away. This result, as outlined in our latest press release, ha…The post Torn’s Science, Technology, & Science Fiction 24–30 April 2023 appeared first on Torn Macalester.
April 21, 2023
Torn’s Science, Technology, & Science Fiction 17–23 April 2023
Featured Thunder Moon Tussle
This week’s discord chat Week of Apr 23 2023 [23rd at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 26th at 9 PM EDT (27th 2 AM GMT)]Extrasolar Planets Torn’s Discord Server Currently Reading
The Space Environment: Implications for Spacecraft Design — Revised and Expanded Edition by Alan C. Tribble
Lunar Sourcebook: a Users Guide to the Moon edited by Grant H. Heiken, David T. Vaniman, and Bevan M. French
Recently Read
2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
Destination—Death by Wilber S. Peacock
The New Frontiers Series, Book One: The Ship by Jack L. Knapp
Thunder Moon Tussle by Torn MacAlester available on Amazon.com
Thunder Moon Tussle Trailer A new novel by Torn MacAlesterThe long awaited sequel to
Thunder Moon Tussle
:
Mask of the Joyful Moon
Coming SoonThis Week’s Short Fiction by Torn MacAlester This week, I offer the vignette Commander.
The post Torn’s Science, Technology, & Science Fiction 17–23 April 2023 appeared first on Torn Macalester.
April 16, 2023
Torn’s Science Fiction, Technology, & Science 2–16 April 2023
Featured Fermi ParadoxThe Great FilterThe Fermi Paradox creates an interesting dilemma from science. What is the filter that seems to be preventing conclusive evidence of alien civilizations? We have several options:
Planets capable of supporting life: That might be a deceptive description. What is a planet capable of supporting life. The first indication is that it must have liquid water present. This is certainly necessary but it isn’t sufficient. A better criteria would be the world having sufficiently long time to support life for life to evolve far enough to have intelligent life. Such examples include evolution of magnetic field, and evolution of atmospheric chemistry.Probability of life becoming intelligent life: There are some potential hurdles for this that might make this number extremely slow. First off, 99.9% of all species have gone extinct, giving us a probability of a particular species surviving at 0.001. But there may be other biological hurdles to intelligence that are not accounted for in the mere survival of a particular species. An evolutionary line would need to be formed that make it past these biological hurdles, driving the number even lower. Some of these hurdles consist of development of Eucaryotic cells, assembly of multi-cellular organisms, adaptation to planetary changes, and evolution of cognitive mechanisms.Probability of intelligent life developing necessary technologies for interstellar communications: This is technological evolution from the first tools to the understanding of radio and electronics. On Earth, humanity has gone over these technological hurdles in various places at various times. The development of technologies is tied to many factors including: availability of materials, cultural norms, economic factors, perceived need, and environmental limitations.Lifetime of a civilization: There might be poison pill technologies that end a civilization. In the past, we’ve seen civilizations come and go. Historians have postulated multiple causes for the collapses. In fact, some postulate that certain collapses set back humanity’s technological progress by a couple hundred years or more. Humanity happened to develop the hydrogen bomb about the same time as they developed the means of interstellar communications. The driving question has been: will we survive long enough to make contact? In the video below John Michael Godier discusses the Vulnerable World Hypothesis. This week’s discord chat Week of Apr 16 2023 [16th at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 19th at 9 PM EDT (20th 2 AM GMT)]The Fermi Paradox Torn’s Discord Server Currently Reading
The Space Environment: Implications for Spacecraft Design — Revised and Expanded Edition by Alan C. Tribble
Lunar Sourcebook: a Users Guide to the Moon edited by Grant H. Heiken, David T. Vaniman, and Bevan M. French
Recently Read
2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
Destination—Death by Wilber S. Peacock
The New Frontiers Series, Book One: The Ship by Jack L. Knapp
Thunder Moon Tussle by Torn MacAlester available on Amazon.com
Thunder Moon Tussle Trailer A new novel by Torn MacAlesterThe long awaited sequel to
Thunder Moon Tussle
:
Mask of the Joyful Moon
Coming SoonThis Week’s Short Fiction by Torn MacAlester This week, I offer the vignette Commander.
The post Torn’s Science Fiction, Technology, & Science 2–16 April 2023 appeared first on Torn Macalester.
April 1, 2023
Torn’s Science Fiction, Technology, and Science Fiction 26 March — 1 April 2023
Featured PanspermiaSomething interesting occurred in the late 1960’s as part of the Apollo program. The uncrewed probe Surveyor 3 was landed in the Ocean of storms in 1967. Part of the Apollo 12 mission, the second crewed landing in 1969, was to retrieve engineering samples from Surveyor 3. That mission was a success, but that is only the beginning of the story.
For two years, Surveyor had unintended passengers waiting on the surface of the Moon for 31 months. They were bacteria spores that managed to survive in the vacuum of space. The very fact of their survival begs the question: Are their natural processes that can move life from one planet to another over interplanetary distances? And if that is possible: Is it possible for those same processes to move life interstellar distances?
Recently, an additional piece to the panspermia story was added. An object passed through the solar system. The trajectory of the object confirmed that it was interstellar in origin. It is called Oumuamua. Models have suggested that there might be 10 million such objects nearby the sun (see Our Solar System… from inverse). With that many objects we likely have samples from 10 million stars from around the Milky Way. Similarly, we could have sent samples to around the same number of stars.
Taking a page from the Drake Equation, we can look at a probability of obtaining a sample of life from another life bearing planet. Number of objects 
, times the probability of planets per system 
, times the number of planets per system 
, times the probability of a planet having life 
, times the probability the sample survived the journey 
should give us the number of live samples that could be within reach: 
.
This week’s discord chat
Week of Feb 26 2023 [26th at 1 PM EDT (6 PM GMT), 1 Mar at 9 PM EDT (2nd 2AM GMT)]
The Drake Equation Torn’s Discord Server Currently Reading
The Space Environment: Implications for Spacecraft Design — Revised and Expanded Edition by Alan C. Tribble
Lunar Sourcebook: a Users Guide to the Moon edited by Grant H. Heiken, David T. Vaniman, and Bevan M. French
Recently Read
2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
Destination—Death by Wilber S. Peacock
The New Frontiers Series, Book One: The Ship by Jack L. Knapp
Thunder Moon Tussle by Torn MacAlester available on Amazon.com
Thunder Moon Tussle Trailer A new novel by Torn MacAlesterThe long awaited sequel to
Thunder Moon Tussle
:
Mask of the Joyful Moon
Coming SoonThis Week’s Short Fiction by Torn MacAlester This week, I offer the vignette Y+1
The post Torn’s Science Fiction, Technology, and Science Fiction 26 March — 1 April 2023 appeared first on Torn Macalester.
