R.P. Nettelhorst's Blog, page 75

The Golden Age

During the golden age of science fiction in the 1940s and 50s—the heyday of Robert Heinlein, Isaac Asimov, Ray Bradbury and Arthur C. Clarke—the writers of speculative fiction imagined humanity spreading from Earth to the moon and beyond. They described entrepreneurs and scientists reaching space to find their fortunes and adventure. Such authors imagined that the final frontier would be opened in the same way that the western frontier had been in America.

But in 1969 when Americans finally made it to the moon, it wasn’t thanks to entrepreneurs or scientists fiddling in their garages. Instead, the moon landing was the result of a massive government program costing billions of dollars. Even science fiction authors hadn’t imagined space would cost so much—or that only the government would do it. Science fiction became science fact, but not quite in the way that it was imagined.

Finally, in the early twenty-first century, that is starting to change thanks to several entrepreneurs who grew up reading science fiction and have gotten tired of waiting for the government to fulfill their dreams.

Take SpaceX, a California-based company founded by Elon Musk. His stated goal is to build rockets that will let humanity colonize Mars. When SpaceX began in 2002, not many people took him seriously. After ten successful flights of the company’s Falcon 9, along with three cargo trips to and from the International Space Station, no one is laughing any more.

And when SpaceX launched their last Dragon cargo ship to the International Space Station, they managed to do something that had never been done before: they brought the first stage of the Falcon 9 back down to a soft landing.

Until now, the first stages of rockets have always just fallen away and been destroyed on impact. For instance the first stage of the mighty Saturn V that took Americans to the moon plummeted into the Atlantic Ocean, where it has lain ever since–until Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com funded an expedition that recovered a couple of the engines from that booster for display in a museum.

Unlike the Space Shuttle which required thousands of workers to refurbish it after each flight, with the Falcon 9 SpaceX is creating a launch vehicle that is fully reusable in the same way that an airliner is reusable. Jet aircraft are not disassembled and rebuilt after each flight. Their engines are not removed and reconditioned after each trip across the country. A jet is simply refueled, given a new pilot and crew, and off it goes again. Likewise, the Falcon 9 first stage will fly back to its launch site, land, be refueled, and be ready for re-flight right away.

The cost of the fuel needed to launch a Dragon to orbit is around 250 thousand dollars. It costs less than 50 million dollars to build each Falcon 9 and Dragon capsule—compared to a new Boeing 787 which will set you back about 212 million dollars. Obviously, if all the bits of a Falcon 9 can be reused over and over, the cost of launching something to orbit will drop immensely and perhaps would approach the cost of a cross-country airplane trip.

Even without reusability, a Falcon 9 launch costs about half that of any of its competitors. Each Dragon capsule is already reusable: currently they float back on parachutes, though soon they will land propulsively, like the rockets you see in the old 1950s movies.

On April 18, following first stage separation, the second stage took Dragon the rest of the way into orbit. The first stage then fired thrusters, stabilized and dropped back toward the Atlantic Ocean in a controlled way. Landing legs deployed as it neared the water. A few hundred feet up, one of the first stage engines reignited and brought the first stage softly down to hover just above the water before plunking in. Had it been coming back over land, it would have landed upright on its legs, ready to be reused. Since this was just a test of the landing system, it then plunked into the ocean—which, unfortunately, was suffering from extremely bad weather and thirty foot swells, so that the stage sank and could not be recovered. Still, this test of the first stage recovery system was entirely successful. And consider: seventy percent of the launch cost comes from the first stage. Recover that, and you save yourself a bundle on each launch.

Twenty-nine seconds of very poor quality video from a camera peering down the side of the first stage was recovered during the landing. SpaceX released the raw, scrambled video file on their website. Hundreds of people then downloaded it and thanks to the efforts of this “crowd-sourcing” the results were astounding. From what appeared to be entirely scrambled digital data, these volunteers on the internet were able to recover clear video of the landing legs unfolding and the booster’s slow descent into a stormy ocean.

SpaceX will again attempt a soft landing of the first stage when their next Falcon 9 launches sometime in early July. By early 2015 they expect to regularly land their boosters back at the Kennedy Space Center.

The vision of the early science fiction authors of entrepreneurs leading humanity into space like the pioneers of old seems not to have been wrong after all—merely delayed.

Send to Kindle

Space Tourism

On June 21, 2004 I was privileged to be a “VIP” when SpaceShipOne first flew into space. Space, according to the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale begins at an altitude of 62 miles. Why 62 miles? Theodore von Kármán calculated that it was at that altitude that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity in order to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift from the atmosphere to support itself.

So, SpaceShipOne was designed to win the Ansari X-Prize of ten million dollars being offered for the first commercial spacecraft capable of carrying three people above that Kármán line two times within a one week period. And with that flight on June 21, SpaceShipOne demonstrated that it was ready to make an attempt to win that prize.

The reason I got to witness that first space flight by SpaceShipOne was because I knew someone whose parents just happened to be friends with Burt Rutan, the designer and builder of SpaceShipOne.

Following that first launch, I learned that the X-Prize Foundation was looking for volunteers for the next flights—when SpaceShipOne would be attempting to win the Ansari X-Prize. So I applied and the X-Prize Foundation accepted me as a volunteer. This allowed me to participate—in a very small way—in the events surrounding the successful flights of SpaceShipOne on September 29, 2004 and then October 4, 2004 when the Ansari X-Prize was won.

At the time of these events—now ten years ago—it seemed as if we stood on the verge of commercial spaceflight. Richard Branson, owner of Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Records (and so on) was one of the sponsors of SpaceShipOne and after the winning flight he announced the founding of Virgin Galactic, which would build and fly larger versions of SpaceShipOne—to be called SpaceShipTwo—for paying passengers. The cost of a ticket to fly into space was pegged at 250 thousand dollars: certainly well-above what I’d ever be able to afford, but I was certain that the price would eventually drop, for the same reasons that large, flat screen televisions that initially sold only to the very wealthy for twenty-thousand dollars, are now available at Wal-Mart for less than five hundred. Branson was predicting commercial flights of SpaceShipTwo by 2007—only three years later. At the time, anything seemed possible.

Ten years have now passed. Commercial flights for paying passengers on SpaceShipTwo have yet to happen, though hundreds have already paid for tickets. The road to commercial space was much rockier than what everyone had anticipated.

Virgin Galactic, and Burt Rutan’s Scaled Composites (the builder of SpaceShipOne) have made tremendous progress. They are currently testing the first of at least five SpaceShipTwos. The V.S.S. Enterprise has performed a series of glide tests and over the last few months has done a series of powered flights—all far short of the Kármán line. The maximum altitude achieved thus far by the six passenger SpaceShipTwo is only 13.4 miles.

Branson is now predicting that the first commercial flights of SpaceShipTwo will occur by the end of this year—but that is dependent upon the upcoming tests all going well. Rocket science is still hard, and any number of setbacks could occur. For instance, just this past week Virgin Galactic announced that they were going to change the fuel composition for SpaceShipTwo’s rocket engine. There’s no telling whether that will lead to further delays.

There have been many positive developments. The second SpaceShipTwo, V.S.S Voyager, has been completed (though it has yet to undergo flight tests). The FAA has granted permission for Virgin Galactic to begin flying their SpaceShipTwo spacecraft in New Mexico—matching the agreement that Virgin Galactic already has with the FAA for flying in southern California.

The approval for flying in New Mexico is important. Although SpaceShipTwo is built and tested at the Mojave Air and Space Port in southern California’s High Desert, southern California will not be the location of Virgin Galactic’s commercial operations. That will be in New Mexico, where Spaceport America has been built from scratch.. It is located in the Jornada del Muerto desert basin in New Mexico just west of the White Sands Missile Range, about 8, 45 miles north of Las Cruces, and 20 miles southeast of Truth or Consequences. Spaceport America was officially declared open on October 18, 2011.Spaceport America includes a ten thousand foot long runway for take offs and landings, and a 110,000 square foot hanger and terminal building. It is now ready for Virgin Galactic to begin using it as their main base of operation.

However, Virgin Galactic is not the only user of the spaceport in New Mexico. Several other companies have already launched over twenty suborbital missions. In May 2013, SpaceX signed a three-year lease for land and facilities there to support high-altitude, high-velocity flight testing of the Grasshopper v1.1 reusable launch vehicle, the second-generation of the SpaceX experimental vertical takeoff, vertical landing suborbital technology-demonstrator. SpaceX is using Grasshopper as one-element of a multi-element program to develop Falcon 9’s reusable boosters and second stages.

So, while commercial tourist space travel didn’t begin as quickly as we had hoped during those heady days of 2004, it remains on track to actually happen.

Send to Kindle

SpaceX Reusable First Stage Landing

The orignal raw video that SpaceX released to the web seemed utterly damaged and unusable. But hoping against hope, they opened it up to crowdsourcing.

And so, the good people at NasaSpaceFlight.com after several thousand man-hours were able to actually fix the video so it is watchable. Now we can see the first stage of the Falcon 9 descending, the landing legs unfolding, the engine ignition, and the landing in the Atlantic Ocean.

Send to Kindle

Replacements

God said to Moses, “Climb up into the Abarim Mountains and look over at the land that I am giving to the People of Israel. When you’ve had a good look you’ll be joined to your ancestors in the grave—yes, you also along with Aaron your brother. This goes back to the day when the congregation quarreled in the Wilderness of Zin and you didn’t honor me in holy reverence before them in the matter of the waters, the Waters of Meribah (Quarreling) at Kadesh in the Wilderness of Zin.”

Moses responded to God: “Let God, the God of the spirits of everyone living, set a man over this community to lead them, to show the way ahead and bring them back home so God’s community will not be like sheep without a shepherd.”

God said to Moses, “Take Joshua the son of Nun—the Spirit is in him!—and place your hand on him. Stand him before Eleazar the priest in front of the entire congregation and commission him with everyone watching. Pass your magisterial authority over to him so that the whole congregation of the People of Israel will listen obediently to him. He is to consult with Eleazar the priest who, using the oracle-Urim, will prayerfully advise him in the presence of God. He will command the People of Israel, the entire community, in all their comings and goings.” (Numbers 27:12-21)

“Who knows whether the one who comes after you will be wise or a fool?” So said the author of Ecclesiastes. Moses knew he was going to die before he could lead the people of Israel into the Promised Land. He knew that he would not be there to guide them in their conquest against the Canaanites. He had been the one to stand before Pharaoh and ten times tell him to “let my people go.” He had led them through the sea, and into the wilderness. He had held their hands through their grumbling and fear. He had prayed to God on their behalf and stood up for them when even God seemed ready to give up on them. And now, just as they were about to reach the place God had promised them, facing even more and possibly worse problems, he wasn’t going to be there for them. Would his forty years of ministry be for nothing? Would it all fall apart without him?

God let him know who would take his place; he reassured him that just as God had been with Moses and had helped him lead an obstinate and difficult group of human beings through a nightmare, so God would be with Moses’ replacement, Joshua, just as much. And just like Moses had succeeded because of God’s presence, so Joshua would succeed and for just the same reason. The human leader might change, but the real leader—God—wasn’t going anywhere. God remains the same generation to generation. Our children will do just fine. God will stand by them just as much as he stood by us.

Send to Kindle

Out of Control

People of Israel,

that’s what the LORD

has said to you.

But you don’t have good sense,

and you never listen

to advice.

If you did, you could see

where you are headed.

How could one enemy soldier

chase a thousand

of Israel’s troops?

Or how could two of theirs

pursue ten thousand of ours?

It can only happen if the LORD

stops protecting Israel

and lets the enemy win.

Even our enemies know

that only our God

is a Mighty Rock.

Our enemies are grapevines

rooted in the fields

of Sodom and Gomorrah.

The grapes they produce

are full of bitter poison;

their wine is more deadly

than cobra venom.

But the LORD has written

a list of their sins

and locked it in his vault.

Soon our enemies will get

what they deserve —

suddenly they will slip,

and total disaster

will quickly follow. (Deuteronomy 32:28-35)

Just because it’s impossible to lose doesn’t mean you won’t. At Jericho, God defeated an army of tens of thousands with barely three hundred men. Those facing Gideon had no reason to think that they wouldn’t be victorious against him. But they lost all the same. But then, there were times when the enemy was severely outnumbered by Israel’s forces, and they lost all the same.

Israel faced judgment. Even before they entered the land of Promise, before Jericho fell to an army that had merely walked around it, God warned his people that they would make mistakes during the years to come. Nevertheless, those who stood arrayed against God’s people didn’t have a chance. In the end, no matter how good they looked at the moment, no matter how invincible, they were no better than Sodom and Gomorrah, the two cities that God had destroyed with fire and brimstone in a single day. God reassured his people that no matter what, God would avenge them. He was keeping track of all the wrongs that they had done against his people and eventually he would call them to account.

Winning and losing are in God’s hands, not in our own. We like to imagine we control our destinies, that our fate is ours to chose. But the reality is that God is the one actually in charge, and no matter the odds, good or bad, it is God’s way that always wins out.

Send to Kindle

Snakes on a Plain

Then they set out from Mount Hor by the way of the Red Sea, to go around the land of Edom; and the people became impatient because of the journey.

The people spoke against God and Moses, “Why have you brought us up out of Egypt to die in the wilderness? For there is no food and no water, and we loathe this miserable food.”

The LORD sent fiery serpents among the people and they bit the people, so that many people of Israel died.

So the people came to Moses and said, “We have sinned, because we have spoken against the LORD and you; intercede with the LORD, that He may remove the serpents from us.” And Moses interceded for the people.

Then the LORD said to Moses, “Make a fiery serpent, and set it on a standard; and it shall come about, that everyone who is bitten, when he looks at it, he will live.”

And Moses made a bronze serpent and set it on the standard; and it came about, that if a serpent bit any man, when he looked to the bronze serpent, he lived. (Numbers 21:4-9)

People tend to give up on God at the first sign of trouble. They praise God at the first hint of blessing. People can be very fickle with their affections. The Israelites had spent years in the wilderness. It was easy to complain about their condition. In fact, complaining is something that all humans everywhere are really good at. The students of a school will always complain about the food in the cafeteria. Soldiers complain about their chow and about the miserable rain, their tired feet, their lack of support, their shortage of ammunition. Workers stand around the water cooler and gripe about the boss and all the work piling up. The unemployed gripe about the lines at the unemployment office and about how hard it is to find work. How much easier it would be to just lie down and die.

The Israelites had that chance. They were unhappy with their diet. They asked Moses why he had brought them out to the wilderness just to die. So God sent snakes to bite them and kill them. They wanted to die? God would make it easy.

But he also gave them an easy way to stay alive. The bronze snake became a cure for the poison. All that chose to look at it could live through the snake bites. If someone was determined to just give up and die, it was easy enough. All he had to do was close his eyes and give up. But not giving up wasn’t all that hard, either. They just had to alter their perspective a little. Then they could find out that God really didn’t want to kill them in the wilderness. God is always near. He never abandons us. He won’t leave us without a solution.

Send to Kindle

Vows

Then the LORD said to Moses, “Give the following instructions to the people of Israel.

“If any of the people, either men or women, take the special vow of a Nazirite, setting themselves apart to the LORD in a special way, they must give up wine and other alcoholic drinks. They must not use vinegar made from wine or from other alcoholic drinks, they must not drink fresh grape juice, and they must not eat grapes or raisins. As long as they are bound by their Nazirite vow, they are not allowed to eat or drink anything that comes from a grapevine—not even the grape seeds or skins.

“They must never cut their hair throughout the time of their vow, for they are holy and set apart to the LORD. Until the time of their vow has been fulfilled, they must let their hair grow long. And they must not go near a dead body during the entire period of their vow to the LORD. Even if the dead person is their own father, mother, brother, or sister, they must not defile themselves, for the hair on their head is the symbol of their separation to God. This requirement applies as long as they are set apart to the LORD. (Numbers 6:1-8)

Sometimes all you’ll get out of a vow is pain. A Nazarite vow meant giving up haircuts and anything made out of grapes, among other things. Examples of people in the Bible who took a Nazarite vow include both Samson and Samuel, who were Nazarites from birth (Judges 13:7 and 1 Samuel 1:11). The apostle Paul took the vow as an adult, but only for a specified, limited period of time (Acts 18:18). Paul also paid for the ending ceremony for other Nazarites (Acts 21:17-26).

The purpose of fasting, the purpose of vows, the purpose of spiritual discipline of whatever sort, is not discomfort. God is not brought nearer or better understood as a consequence of suffering. Pain is not the key to reaching God. God is not accessed by a ritual or the equivalent of a secret handshake. Instead, it is the discipline of the thing: the perseverance, the seeing it through to the end, that becomes the learning experience. A person gets to know God better not in the pain, but in practicing one of God’s qualities. God is not one to ever give up. He is not one to quit. To make a vow and to see it through to the end builds patience and perseverance, qualities that are valuable in life and in one’s relationship with God. After all, God may not fulfill his promises instantly. His answers to our prayers often take time. We just need to be patient.

Send to Kindle

Truth

Yes, truth is lacking;

And he who turns aside from evil makes himself a prey.

Now the LORD saw,

And it was displeasing in His sight that there was no justice.

And He saw that there was no man,

And was astonished that there was no one to intercede;

Then His own arm brought salvation to Him,

And His righteousness upheld Him.

He put on righteousness like a breastplate,

And a helmet of salvation on His head;

And He put on garments of vengeance for clothing

And wrapped Himself with zeal as a mantle.

According to their deeds, so He will repay,

Wrath to His adversaries, recompense to His enemies;

To the coastlands He will make recompense.

So they will fear the name of the LORD from the west

And His glory from the rising of the sun,

For He will come like a rushing stream

Which the wind of the LORD drives.

“A Redeemer will come to Zion,

And to those who turn from transgression in Jacob,” declares the LORD.

“As for Me, this is My covenant with them,” says the LORD: “My Spirit which is upon you, and My words which I have put in your mouth shall not depart from your mouth, nor from the mouth of your offspring, nor from the mouth of your offspring’s offspring,” says the LORD, “from now and forever.” (Isaiah 59:15-21)

Truth and justice are not as popular as some slogans might make us think. Instead, people would rather know what they’ve always known and what they’re comfortable with. And too often, good guys do finish last. Or worse, get eaten alive.

God understands that the world of human relationships and activities too often fails to work the way he’d like. It has always been thus. In the time of Isaiah, his government wasn’t overjoyed by his message; many of the people in the land were not particularly happy to hear what he had to say, either. The truth is sometimes very painful, very unpopular, and does not make anyone feel good. He predicted the destruction of his nation by the invasion of powerful neighbors. People were suffering, which is why God was bringing his judgment. Those who heard God’s message accused Isaiah of being a traitor and of hating his own countrymen.

God understood that no one would take care of rescuing his people. And none of them could save themselves. Therefore, God took the task upon himself. He recognized that salvation was dependent upon him, and him alone. He would see to it that his people came back from captivity in Babylon. Likewise, he would ultimately see to it that his people came back from their bondage to sin when he sacrificed himself on the cross.

Send to Kindle

Somebody Knows Your Name

Thus says the LORD:

“Keep justice, and do righteousness,

For My salvation is about to come,

And My righteousness to be revealed.

Blessed is the man who does this,

And the son of man who lays hold on it;

Who keeps from defiling the Sabbath,

And keeps his hand from doing any evil.”

Do not let the son of the foreigner

Who has joined himself to the LORD

Speak, saying,

“The LORD has utterly separated me from His people”;

Nor let the eunuch say,

“Here I am, a dry tree.”

For thus says the LORD:

“To the eunuchs who keep My Sabbaths,

And choose what pleases Me,

And hold fast My covenant,

Even to them I will give in My house

And within My walls a place and a name

Better than that of sons and daughters;

I will give them an everlasting name

That shall not be cut off. (Isaiah 56:1-5)

Do you know the name of your great grandfather? Or would you have to go look it up? Most of us never met our great grandparents and most of us don’t even know their names.

Non-Israelites who converted to Judaism too often felt excluded. In fact, after the captivity, many were in fact put out: the Samaritans and others who could not demonstrate a genealogy, a direct connection to Jewish ancestors, were excluded from participation in most aspects of worship. According to the Mosaic legislation, a descendent of Aaron who had “damaged testicles” (Leviticus 21:20) could not serve as a priest in the temple. Eunuchs would not even have testicles, of course—and so any of them descended from Aaron would be excluded. Worse for them, of course, was the simple fact that they could never have children: no descendents. When they died, there would be nothing of them left behind. But God reassured them, as he reassured the foreign convert, that they belonged to God as much as anyone else might and that if they had signed on to God’s covenant, it meant that they were as everlasting as God was: their names could never be cut off. They belonged to God and would be with him always. Our great grandchildren might not remember our names, but God will never forget us: we’ll be part of him forever.

Send to Kindle

Deliverance

Listen to me, you who know righteousness,

you people who have my teaching in your hearts;

do not fear the reproach of others,

and do not be dismayed when they revile you.

For the moth will eat them up like a garment,

and the worm will eat them like wool;

but my deliverance will be forever,

and my salvation to all generations.

Awake, awake, put on strength,

O arm of the LORD!

Awake, as in days of old,

the generations of long ago!

Was it not you who cut Rahab in pieces,

who pierced the dragon?

Was it not you who dried up the sea,

the waters of the great deep;

who made the depths of the sea a way

for the redeemed to cross over?

So the ransomed of the LORD shall return,

and come to Zion with singing;

everlasting joy shall be upon their heads;

they shall obtain joy and gladness,

and sorrow and sighing shall flee away. (Isaiah 51:7-11)

Criticism and problems are not forever. Your critics, those who trouble you: they’ll disappear like an old sweater in a closet without mothballs. Israel had nothing to fear: the Babylonians would someday be gone, just like their enemies in the past had gone away, too. God had taken care of the Egyptians, so why worry that God wouldn’t take care of the current bad guys, too?

Rahab was a mythological beast, a dragon in charge of chaos, that came to serve as a symbol for Egypt. It was often used in poetry, as it is here. In the myths, Rahab was chopped to bits by God allowing God to then create the universe. In a similar way, Egypt was overthrown by the plagues that God had sent against it, allowing God to make his people into a new nation. So the old myth was repurposed and applied to Egypt.

God promised his people that In the same way that God had delivered them from Egypt, so he would deliver them from the Assyrians and Babylonians who had taken them captive. The current oppressors would meet the same end as all those other oppressors who had dared to rise up against God’s people. God always wins and so do those on his side.

Send to Kindle