Bob Mayer's Blog, page 30

Day 324: Pandemic. Are We Seeing a Slow Rolling Larger Disaster in COVID-19?

Reported Cases

I haven’t written about the pandemic in a while; perhaps I’ve been numbed out like many of us. But first, note its day 324 since I started writing about it. What hasn’t happened? We still can’t get an N-95 mask. That seems simple, doesn’t it? Why not? Because the previous administration never had a plan for this. We’re only a couple of weeks into the new administration but I’m seeing worrying signs in the midst of a turnaround in the government response.

We knew there would be mutations of the original virus. That happens in a pandemic. But as we slowly roll out vaccines (my wife and I are hoping for April, maybe???) we’re also seeing variants of COVID that are more contagious. Also, one that seems to be more serious. The new Johnson and Johnson Vaccine that should be rolling out soon isn’t as effective against the new South African variant of COVID-19. That’s troubling.

We’ve lost half a million Americans to COVID (officially 434,000) and I really believe that number is on the low side. Lots of bodies found alone in homes and apartments that haven’t been autopsied. Lots of secondary deaths due to triage and medical appointments and checkups canceled. There are third level deaths from suicides and financial hardships. Overall, it’s been the worst health disaster in the United States since the 1918 Flu. And it’s still peaking. We’re not in a second wave. We’re still climbing the first wave.

The map above is pretty stunning. We’re getting better at treating COVID and keeping the fatality rate down, but it’s spreading like wildfire.

A distressingly high percentage of our population still has willful ignorance of the threat and refuse to change their lifestyle. Or wear masks. Governors are still floundering and in some cases making extremely stupid decisions, such as re-opening indoor dining. Seriously? People can’t do take out? It’s so important to actually sit in a restaurant and eat?

We are in a race against time with the vaccine. Can we get enough people immunized to turn the numbers positive? Much more worrying to me, and why I titled this post the way I did, is whether we might see a COVID variant that won’t be stopped with the current vaccinations, causing us to go through the entire process again? On top of the current variant? What if one develops in reaction to vaccinations that is much more deadly? Every time a new variant pops up, it’s never isolated. Within a week it’s all over the world. I don’t know what fatality rate would cause a panic, but I suspect even a 5% mortality rate would cause a significant breakdown in society. I’m not saying its likely, but I’m picking up a lot of worrisome vibes from experts in the field. It’s what they’re not saying that concerns me. Many economies are already fragile and people are numbed out. Not just by deaths in the hundreds of thousands, but also a year of constant stress.

Hard as it might be, now is the time to get prepared for the possibility of things getting worse. Essentially we’re living downstream from a very large dam and the water is flowing over the top. Hopefully the level will go down and the dam will hold. But there are two frightening possibilities: the water will pour over the top or, worse, the dam will break. And if it does, things will happen fast.

Prepare now. Survive later.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide

Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide.

The Vulnerabilities of GPS

GPS

The NY Times ran an article yesterday about the vulnerabilities of GPS. It’s here if you desire to read it.

It mostly reiterates what I’ve written in The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Bottom line: we are way too dependent on GPS– and its used for much than navigation. We use GPS signals for time-keeping. Thus the stock market and many other parts of our society are dependent on it. The one interesting thing the article covers that I don’t touch on is that it’s getting easier to spook a GPS signal. I often wonder if some of those Navy ship collissions occurred because the GPS navigation was spoofed? I hope all naval officers still know how to use compass and sextant? Anyone know?

GPS stands for Global Positioning System. A basic understanding of GPS is useful so we understand what it can and can’t do.

Let’s get a little geeky. The GPS receiver gets a signal from each satellite with the exact time it is sent. By subtracting the time the signal was sent from the time it was received the GPS receiver can calculate how far it is from the satellite. The receiver knows where the satellite is in orbit so it has a fix on that satellite. For our GPS receiver to work it needs to make contact and get a fix with at least 3 GPS satellites for a two dimensional fix (latitude and longitude) and 4 satellites for a three dimensional fix (adding in elevation). If you are only getting 3 satellites and aren’t at sea level, your actual location could be different from what the GPS is showing. If you’re up at a high altitude in the mountains, this can become significant. Usually, though, this isn’t a problem. Of the 31 active GPS satellites, there are usually 6 in range from most places on the Earth’s surface.

Ever notice that it takes your GPS varying amounts of time to get a fix? If the GPS hasn’t been on recently it could take as long as 30 seconds. Tall buildings or other obstructions can also make it take longer. Most GPS accuracy is to within 5 meters.

Cellphone GPS units act a bit differently incorporating Assisted-GPS to get a fix quickly. They use cell phone tower data to assist. Sometimes they can give you a fix without even accessing satellites. This only works though it you are in cellphone and Wifi coverage.

Another thing to consider is whether the map coverage you’re using is in your device’s memory or downloading. Ever have the GPS map become blank when you’re out of coverage? We should always download our local area tiles for whatever mapping GPS we use. When I plan trips, I download the map tiles into memory for the route and destination. This allows the GPS to work faster and gives me a map even if I can’t download it live. For your vehicle’s GPS, are the maps you’re using in the memory or downloading? Put them in the memory.

I’ve noticed when biking and using GPS that every so often it will tell me it has lost the signal. Some of these ‘dead spots’ are the same, but others seem random. Which brings me to this significant point: you can’t count on GPS!

There are other problems with GPS:

They need the satellites working. EMP—electro-magnetic pulse, whether natural (solar flare) or man-made (nuclear weapon) can wipe those satellites out.

The GPS receiver, whether in your vehicle, a cell phone or handheld GPS receiver, requires power to work. Cell phones and batteries can die. Commercial airplanes are required to have backup navigation to GPS. Just in case. We need to do the same.

Sadly, many people no longer carry paper maps in their car. Beyond that, many don’t know how to read a road map, never mind a topographical one.

When I was a brand new butter-bar second lieutenant in the First Cavalry Division, I was told succinctly that a platoon leader had to do two things well: Maintain communications on the radio and navigate. Failing either of those two and your time as leader was limited and your career in the Army over.

In a survival situation, especially moderate to extreme, it is highly likely you will have to move from point A to point B. It also possible you won’t have a GPS to do that with.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide

We’ve Let Ourselves Be Massacred And It’s Still Going On

300,000

I wrote this post before the recent coup attempt in Washington, but it’s all still true. Even more so.

Time to be blunt. The official number of COVID-19 deaths today is over 336,000. 3,725 Americans died yesterday. This in a country that tore the world apart over a lesser number on a single day” 9-11. But it’s a daily occurrence now and getting higher. People are dying outside hospitals because there’s no room for them. And it’s not just COVID-19 people. Don’t you dare have a heart attack or a car accident or a stroke now. You’re fucked.

The reality is that it’s much higher for several reasons: many die alone and are never autopsied and added to the total. They die alone because they have no health care plan and don’t think they can afford to go to the doctor, never mind the emergency room. That they can ride it out, but once your blood oxygen level gets too low, it’s too late.

Secondary deaths will never be known but that’s all the people who’ve canceled check-ups and going to the doctor out of caution and will develop fatal health problems that could have been treated if caught by a blood test, an MRI, an x-ray, etc. Those will eventually number in the hundreds of thousands and last years. Los Angeles is now having EMS personnel triage people even before getting in the hospital. How many are dying?

There has never been a coordinated federal response to COVID-19 from the very start. In fact, the federal government from the highest levels worked to obfuscate and downplay the threat. We were blatantly lied to. We know that because there are audio recordings of it. It’s as if we refuse to believe the rock-solid evidence. Then the president foisted responsibility onto the states, as if a virus knows state’s borders. He literally said he took no responsibility. The buck doesn’t stop there- it gets pocketed there. Not only did he pass it to the states, he then undertook a public attack to undermine the efforts of governors to try to contain the virus.

Already there are millions of Americans who don’t believe the above. Who don’t believe masks help. Who think COVID-19 is no worse than the flu. Who think the numbers are inflated for various reasons. When all facts point to the obvious, they stick to their dogma, egged on by propaganda outlets that make money off them and even an administration that’s currently fleecing them. Those are facts which I no longer bother to argue with those who deny them.

Watch what they do, not what they say. I see members of Congress still whining about lockdowns and masks, but who were first in line to get vaccinations. Members of congress who got privately briefed on the severity, did nothing to help their constituents but invested in companies that made body bags to make a buck of our deaths.

From the beginning I’ve been attacked because people think I’m being political. If being an American who cares about democracy is political, then I am. We have a crime syndicate running this country that doesn’t give a damn about us. And we’ve let it happen. It’s ongoing.

Even the vaccine rollout is botched. It’s estimated at least 40,000 more of us, are going to die because of errors already made. They had a year to plan this and are fucking it up because instead of letting experts run it, they dole out appointments to supplicants and sycophants. In fact, we have a huge movement in this country that denigrates experts. I’d like those people to stop using all the things experts made for them like their cell phones and the internet. You know, stop using all the results of science if you don’t believe in it. They stand on the back of experts, while deriding them. They traveled on Thanksgiving and Xmas because they were special. Some die still not believing that what the experts warned them about is killing them.

“We are not — and will not — be the subjects of an elite class of so-called experts,” she told a national TV audience. “We the people are the government.” Governor Noem of South Dakota.

Are we?

We have a president openly enacting a coup. And we shrug. Oh well. That’s just Trump. Doing what was unthinkable just four years ago. And we let it go on. People claim to be patriots as the very foundations of our country are being jack-hammered by those who wrap themselves in the flag.

The level of incompetence will definitely kill at least half a million Americans, but it’s also the only thing that might give us a reprieve. Note, I say reprieve. A new administration is not a fix. Because the next guy, and there will be a next guy, or woman, will be smarter. Will see how Trump played this wrong, just as Trump, who met and listened to Nixon, learned who that man did it wrong.

I’ve been called a traitor, without honor, a liar, and worse by many. I’ve lost readers. It’s hurt my business, but others have lost their lives, so it’s not a hard price to pay. I do what I can. I’m on day 305 of my pandemic blog. From the start I put out information designed to help. Feel free to us it.  Free survival slideshows HERE. Sign up for my newsletter HERE which I send out at most once a month, but always includes links to free books. I will be giving away The Green Pocket Sized Survival Guide next week via the newsletter.

Stay safe. Look out for yourselves and, as loyal Americans, look out for your neighbors. Remember, most people are good people.

Day 296: Survival Preparation. Task 21. Rotation and Inspection Checklist

Guide

Task Twenty-One

Mild: Rotation and Inspection Checklist

Monthly: Test fire alarms

Quarterly: (1 Jan, 1 April, 1 July, 1 Oct): Rotate gas in spare cans

Power bars, emergency water in vehicle

Semi-Annual: (1 Jan, 1 July): Replace fire alarm batteries; check first aid kits

Conduct fire drill

Check all emergency food

Annual: Check Grab-n-Go bags.

Every five years: Replenish emergency bars.

Every ten years: replace smoke/CO2 alarms

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide

Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide.

Day 294: Survival Preparation. Task 19 and 20. Basic and More Advanced Water Preparation

Water is most often our survival priority as we can only last three days without it. So tasks 19 and 20 are basic and then more advanced about what you need.

Task Nineteen

Mild: Water Checklist

3 Gallons of water person.  Rotate every six months.

2 bottles of water in the car (preferably a case in trunk or back). Rotate every six months.

2 bottles of water in work/school GnG bag. Rotate every six months.

Task Twenty

Mod/Ex: Water Checklist

Moderate: 6 gallons of water per person; 4 cases

Moderate: Portable water filter

Katadyn Water Microfilter: https://amzn.to/2LBYcuE

Platypus Gravitywork High Capacity Water Filter: https://amzn.to/36N18Bi

Extreme: 30 gallons per person or more  (10 cases, 55 gallon drum, etc)

Mod/Ex: location of drinkable water source near home

Mod/Ex: GnG Bag: bottle of water purifying pills

Mod/Ex GnG bag:

LifeStraw Personal Water Filter: https://amzn.to/2V4uUJf

Mod/Ex: One case of water in car.

Extreme: BOHS—drinkable water source near hide site.

WATER! What You Need To Know About Water For Survival  #earthquake https://www.slideshare.net/CoolGus/wa... via @SlideShare #water #flood #hurricane #ClimateChange #LifeHack Water Slideshow

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide

Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide.

Day 292: Survival Preparation. Task 18. Emergency Communication

This is one of the four basics items needed:

Task Eighteen

Mild: If you don’t have one, get an emergency radio for your home.

Example: Running Snail Solar Crank NOAA Radio with flashlight, powerbank:

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide

Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide.

On West Point and the Honor Code

Honor Code

“A cadet will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”

This is one of the first things imprinted on New Cadets when they arrive at West Point for Beast Barracks. Along with such tantalizing bits as “How’s the cow?” and “How many gallons in Lusk Reservoir?” You know, important stuff. There was also grazing fire range for the M-60 machinegun, which is kind of useful and I still know.

Latest kerfuffle is that a bunch of beanheads, plebes, smackheads, whatever you want to call what other schools call freshman, got caught cheating because all got the same answer wrong on a test. The first thing that leaps to mind is a great lack of imagination on part of those caught in that they could have switched things up a bit. But I regress.

The Honor Code? Never was a big fan. Why? Let me count the ways.

Do you think you can teach honor or are you born with the fundamentals and develop it and by the time you’re a plebe at West Point it’s either there or not?

I believe the honor code made cheaters either suspend their cheating for four years, or be really good at it. After all, how many graduates have been caught cheating? Gen. Petraeus for one, who is now rehabbing his public persona, yet was certainly dishonest. And broke UCMJ. Yet has been invited back to the Academy to speak and I predict will be on the political horizon soon. Sec State Pompeo graduated first in his class. Does that mean he’s extra-honorable? His actions and words seem at odds. He’s publicly been caught lying. Oh well. No honor board for either of them. The civilian world acts with reverence toward the “generals” yet I can’t name a one alive who has won a war. But there’s a whole ‘nother subject.

You know another intriguing bit of plebe poop we had to memorize that really made me think:

There were 60 important battles of the War. In 55 of them, graduates commanded on both sides; in the remaining 5, a graduate commanded one of the opposing sides.

Whoa! That means the Civil War was a West Point war. Which is big reason it lasted so long since they all knew each other and had been taught the same tactics. Hell, in First Bull Run, the commanders on either side had the exact same tactical plan. But because the Confederate commander was a little slow on his execution, he actually managed to win the battle. You can research that one. The blurb was the impetus for me to write a trilogy, titled, brilliantly, Duty, Honor, Country where I examined the concept of honor and loyalty.

More important, where was the HONOR there? Where was the loyalty? A shitload of graduates tossed their oath of office out the window and fought against the very entity they’d sworn to defend. Major disconnect. I don’t think the Academy has ever really looked in the mirror about that, despite all the time that’s passed. Colonel Lee (he was never made a general by a country I acknowledge) has his portrait hanging there and a barracks named after him; right across from Sherman Barracks, where I spent four years. Alanis Morrisette anyone?

Let’s back up from there—what is ‘honor’? The definition as a noun:

High respect, great esteem.Adherence to what is right or to a conventional standard of conduct.

The first doesn’t seem to apply. More an opinion rendered by others. I watch Army football games (Pavlovian response after standing for every home game for four years) and hear the platitude of the announcers. “America’s game.” Army was recently snubbed for a bowl game and the coach went off on a tirade that it was an insult to everyone in uniform, which I thought a bit much. But not to worry. Here in Knoxville, the hottest COVID spot in the world, the UT football time had too many come up positive and had to drop out of their bowl game so Army gets to play. Rest easy all you in uniform.

So what is right? And is it conventional? When I was in Special Forces, and to this day, I developed what I call the 3 rules of rule-breaking:

Know the rule.Have a good reason to break the rule.Accept the consequences of breaking the rule.

After all, we practiced unconventional warfare. Did I throw my honor out the window? Or did I do what is right when we made sure we were armed on a deployment where rules of engagement literally forbade ammunition in weapons? The Marines in a big building in Beirut followed the rules.

I bet some of those plebes who were caught will make great military leaders and care about their troops and maybe, someday, win a war. But maybe they just aren’t good at calculus (I guess they shouldn’t go Field Artillery). But others are shits who cheat all the time and just go caught this time (their future for stars is bright). I don’t know.

I’m not aghast at the scandal. We live in a country where honor at the highest levels is in tatters along with truth. Maybe they were just following the example of their Commander-in-Chief. Hey, that’s not political, folks. I just like being in reality, not alternate reality.

We got bigger problems and the Academy needs to get up to speed and take a long, hard look in the mirror at traditions that need to be revamped along with doctrine that is long outdated, based on our track record since 1945. The very concept of war is different, but you’d be hard pressed to see it in the way our military procures, plans, and trains. Let’s focus on the big picture.

And let the ones who got caught accept the consequences of breaking the rules.

The Fetterman Massacre; Patton Dies; Winter Solstice

Stonehenge

I was looking at what today is, and what happened in history on this day, and realized that over my 30 years of writing, I’ve covered a lot of ground. My wife is kinda tired of me saying “I wrote about that” when something comes up on TV.

The Fetterman Massacre in 1866 was a prelude to what happened to Custer a decade later. I’ve been to the site of Fort Kearney walked “over Lodge Pole Ridge” as Fetterman did when breaking orders– to be massacreed. I’ve written about it and Custer in several books, both fiction and non-fiction. In the Atlantis series one theme is how past massacres play a role in a future event in terms of psychic energy. I also cover what exactly led to Custer’s disaster in The Green Beret Guide to Seven Great Disasters (I).

Patton’s death is the second chapter in The Line, a book about a coup by West Pointers in the present. Patton was so outspoken about pushing the war on to Russia, that one of the premises of the book is that the only way to control him was to kill him.

The Winter Solstice as viewed via Stonehenge, above, plays a role in my Area 51 series, where an alien spaceship is buried under Stonehenge; except it turns out not to be aliens. Not exactly. My Area 51 series covered a lot of earth history and locales, including Giza, The Great Wall of China, Easter Island, Stonehenge, Glastonbury Tor, Devil’s Island– and oh yeah, Area 51. I joke I rewrote then entire history of mankind in that series, but it’s not a joke. In fact, the last book, Earth Abides, loops us back to a book coming next: Area 51: Genesis.

I was reminded of something else this morning when someone tweeted about the pandemic, that I wrote my pandemic books years ago: Z: Final Countdown.

My career has done the opposite of what the experts recommend: pick one niche and stay there. But my niche is interesting people, places and things. And it’s a lot of fun and I’m thankful for the readers who’ve come along for the ride.

Stay safe and happy holidays!

Thoughts on Tenet. James Bond meets Christopher Nolan

Liked it a lot. Let’s start with that. Lots of action, lots of locales, lots of strangeness regarding time, which always sucks me in.

Some semi-spoilers ahead, but that doesn’t really matter. Because your guess on a lot of this is as good as mine.

I don’t understand it yet, and have a feeling, as noted in the extra material, that the physics and concept underlying it will never add up. Even Christopher Nolan admits that. We will definitely watch it a few more times and while my wife and I never go to the movie, even without a pandemic, we both admitted this one would have been a good one to see in the Imax which much of it was filmed.

However, the core idea is mind blowing and despite the fact I’ve written a series about time travel, the Time Patrol, it was original. I’m sure someone’s thought of it before, but I haven’t seen it and it really makes sense in a very strange, and very scary, way.

Nolan also freely admits the James Bond part and in that he succeeded. Exotic locales, a solid protagonist who is actually called Protagonist, a 6’3” blonde as the female linchpin, and an adequate bad guy. Lots of planes, boats, helicopters and neat tricks.

The hand to hand fighting in one scene is mesmerizing, especially when you learn it wasn’t done forward and reverse with the camera, but all forward.

Big kudos to Nolan for minimal CGI. Pretty much everything was real or to scale. I’m sick of CGI blowouts at the end of movies that defy reality.

Also, as a writer, the closing out of loops was excellent. Almost every detail you see is important and comes back later to be significant which is a sign of a very tight script.

A few slight negatives. We looked up the film editor and it doesn’t appear she has much experience in action movies. It showed in a few minor places where there was abrupt editing. The bungi jump to the roof was missing a piece in between that would help it make more sense, but hey, the big part was they got there. There were a couple of other places where the cut was swift. That worked well at times, simply accepting things like—yes, she did swim to the boat.

The climactic scene—we never really saw who the bad guys were. The actually people were a bit overwhelmed by the set and what was happening to it, which was intense. The number of extras was surprising—he didn’t cut back on that, and the fact one group had to go backwards, yes you read that right, was pretty mind-blowing.

The four Chinooks were pretty cool, but it’s kind of funny listening to the extra material and the people who made the movie and how awed they were by it and I was thinking it was something the military does all the time. Except usually at night.

There were times where it felt that having a cool scene outweighed having a scene that made sense. But it was entertainment with a very thought-provoking underpinning.

Watch it.

Day 279: Pandemic. A Rant From the World’s Hottest Spot

Tennessee is #1. Yay! 1 out of every 100 people are infected with active COVID. Here in Knoxville, where we live, we have a bunch of hospitals, including UT’s large medical center. There are zero ICU beds available. So don’t even think about having a heart attack, or a stroke, or getting in an accident, because dickheads who couldn’t be bothered to wear a mask or socially distance are taking that bed.

That sounds rough, and yes, I know there are infected people who took precautions, but let’s be real. I’ve got eyes. I see the people gathering on boats, in the parks, at churches that somehow are still open. All the family gatherings at Thanksgiving, because, God forbid, they can’t do without. They’re special. Lots of grandparents had their last Thanksgiving this year and it wasn’t necessary.

“Our First Amendment right not to wear masks!” someone yelled the other day. Huh? I love the Constitutional Scholars who’ve never read it. Who had no problem when the President actually violated the First Amendment for a photo op.

I look back to my first posts, starting 279 days ago. All the naysayers and name-callers. Telling me I was full of shit; insulting me; offering spurious data. Many of them are still saying the same. That it’s no worse than the flu. That masks don’t work. The numbers say without doubt they were and are wrong. And it’s going to get worse, even as we roll out vaccines, which many of the same idiots are doubting.

We don’t have zero leadership in Washington. We have negative leadership. We’ve NEVER had a federal response to COVID-19. Per capita we lead the first world in mortality rate.

Here in TN, the governor has consistently fought mandating masks. In Florida, the governor has been hiding the real data. They are murderers. Don’t wear your mask? Complicit.

We’re in the home stretch, which is actually going to take six months or more. But don’t lose it now. Stay safe. Wear your mask. Socially distance. Don’t be around crowds. Yeah, the holidays are going to suck, but at least you are still breathing. COVID is a bad, bad way to die.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide

Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide.