Stephen Roney's Blog, page 143
March 9, 2022
"This Has Just Destroyed Faith in Authority"
Not a radical voice or a conspiracy theorist. Heretofore generally a supporter of medical and government authority.
A Vision
Once Ukraine has won the war, what happens next?
To begin with, Ukraine will have immense cultural prestige.
This reminds me of a vision I had long ago, in the late Sixties. It was that Russia would become the world’s cultural leader; not the Soviet Russia that existed at that time, but a new spiritual Russia based on the virtue of honour.
Ukraine—almost Russia—may be acting that out right now.
There seems to me a decent chance that, as a result of this war, the current regime in Russia will collapse. It might be replaced by a more democratic, outward-looking regime. This has happened elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe, almost as though it is inevitable given time. And surely, those nations that have embraced the West, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, and the rest, have profited as a result.
If this happens, I predict that Central and Eastern Europe will become the new centre and cutting edge of world civilization. Fostering a revival of the principles of honour and ethics.
Unless, that is, the regime in Beijing also falls. Then it might be East Asia.
We have been needing one.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
March 8, 2022
Winnipeg Tonight
Eddie Shack was Ukrainian-Canadian.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
Ivermectin Works After All?
"One of the huge scandals of this epidemic."
Note that: "one of..."
Puffy Putin
I hear a rumour that Putin is terminally ill with bowel cancer.
One can believe nothing, but it makes sense. He face is puffy—as it would be if he is taking cortisone. This would explain why he stays so far away from aides and visitors—cancer treatment would knock back his immune system, making him particularly vulnerable to Covid.
And it would explain why he is acting recklessly now. He feels he is running out of time, and has little to lose.
If true, bad news for the rest of us.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
The Russian Checkmate
You've heard of Peking duck? How about Moscow goose?Vladimir Putin’s goose is cooked.
He had to win in Ukraine quickly and relatively bloodlessly. He did not.
It is not just that Ukrainian resistance will stiffen, with the element of surprise gone.
The invasion has revealed the Russian military’s weakness.
Now there is both opportunity and every reason for NATO to pour support into Ukraine. They need not be as cautious as they have been. So long as they can preserve plausible deniability, they can engage at will. It is hardly in Putin’s interest to call them out. Declare war on any of them, and he has twenty new adversaries, including the US, UK, France, Germany, built up on the border and ready to go. And they all see he can barely manage Ukraine.
Meantime, they can ensure that Ukraine has all the support it needs to hold out. All the supplies can be stacked right across the border, invulnerable to attack—like the Ho Chi Minh Trail that so bedeviled the Americans in Vietnam. Ukrainian-marked planes might even take off and land from air bases across the border. Putin has already warned against anyone doing this—showing that he fears it.
All Russia can do against all this is threaten to go nuclear. But the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction still applies: it would be suicidal. Threaten is all they can do.
All possible ways, Russia loses.
If they ever get close to overwhelming Ukraine, Europe can simply ratchet up their participation as needed. Popular opinion, as well as strategic self-interest, would demand it, would demand it. Meantime, so long as the Ukrainians can do the heavy lifting, why not leave them to it? This way NATO can limit its own costs and losses.
As the war drags on, Russia’s economy will decline, and domestic unrest will grow. It will end in collapse, either of the country or the regime.
This invasion might have been a plot between Russia and China. Otherwise why invade in the winter? It may have been intended to draw Western resources away from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the spring.
If so, the scheme has probably failed. The weakness revealed in the Russia armed forces suggests the European land and air forces are adequate to the task in Ukraine, leaving the US to manage Taiwan if necessary, along with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India.
In fact, it all opens up a new possibility for China. Putin had better hope that there is honour among thieves. If Russia is so weak, and so committed elsewhere, why not lunge instead for Vladivostok? China has always claimed as its territory.
And they get to cash in on joining the winning side.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
March 7, 2022
Why I Was Silent Yesterday
Speaking frankly, I’ve been depressed. I did not immediately know why, and had to meditate on this.
A useful practice, by the way. Whenever you feel down or experience floating anxiety, you need to meditate on exactly why. Until you do, you cannot deal with it. Until you do, it will victimize you.
I ultimately realized it was because evil seemed to be triumphant everywhere. Most especially in the suppression of the Canadian truckers, as clear an example as I can imagine of a group of good people. This revealed that the Canadian government, the Canadian media, the Canadian police, the Canadian banks, were all in the command of resolutely evil men.
And now Ukraine. While the Ukrainians have done a magnificent job so far of defending their country, underlining their own goodness, here too evil plainly has the upper hand. What outcome now does not mean terrible suffering for the good?
Almost at the same moment, we are learning that dangerous side effects of the Pfizer vaccine have been deliberately suppressed, that the Covid virus was almost certainly manufactured in a lab using patented gene sequences, and that Ivermectin is an effective treatment, and this fact has been suppressed. We had already been more or less aware that there was no real scientific justification for lockdowns, or wearing masks. Government and the drug companies seem to have been ready to murder large numbers of people so long as this w3as to their advantage.
Now look at the hopelessly venal and incompetent administrations in Washington, Ottawa, and London, at a moment when we need someone to rally behind against a dire foreign threat. I at least half suspect that Biden and Trudeau are personally in the pay of foreign powers. Look at a pope many faithful Catholic commentators are now openly suggesting is a heretic. At best, he has been supporting rather than rooting out venality in the church.
Look at how the tech oligarchs have shown themselves to be out for power, and are trying to silence dissent. So much for business as a check on government.
I hope this is all overreach. Overreach is why the darkest hour is often just before the dawn. The devil may be showing all his cards. And this may be a sign of desperation.
The truckers suggested that there is a vast well of good and decent people still. The Ukrainians are showing the same.
I look forward to, someday, a statue of Tamara Lich on Wellington Street, perhaps at about the spot she was arrested. We could probably privately fund it today, if we could prevent the government or the banks from seizing the money.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
March 5, 2022
Saw This One Coming
What Did I Just Hear?
My ears perk up at something Ukrainian president Zelenskyy has just said. He mentions being in contact with French President Macron, Turkish President Erdogan, Polish President Duda. This makes sense; all are especially active in helping Ukraine. But he also mentions being in contact with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
What do they have to do with what is happening in Ukraine?
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have, between them, formidable air forces, with the latest equipment and extraordinary pilots. I taught at the UAE’s Air Force College. Flying is an Arab specialty, and it attracts their best and brightest. I think they might have the wherewithal and the moxie to take on the Russian Air Force in Ukraine, and enforce a no-fly zone.
As I suggested with the Philippines or Thailand, they might be a useful proxy for the West, avoiding a direct confrontation of nuclear powers.
This might also explain Zelenskyy's evident upbeat mood.'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
