Stephen Roney's Blog, page 10

Carney the Dime Store Pychiatrist

 

Canadian PMMark Carney has decided, it seems, that the way to handle Donald Trump is topraise him lavishly in public.

This is presumablybased on the sophomoric assumption that Trump is a narcissist. Narcissists arenotoriously susceptible to flattery.

Trump isnot. Both Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott tried this in the VP stakes. Not only didthey not get picked— but a few brief weeks for Ramaswamy, neither even made itinto the administration.

Trump isjust as immune from flattery as he is from insult. Showing, if it were notalready obvious, that he is not a narcissist.

The lastthing a narcissist would do is surround himself with subordinates who might stealthe limelight. Instead, Trump picked a strong cabinet including charismatic peoplewith their own followings: RFK Jr., Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, Marco Rudio,Christie Noem, Tom Homan, Kash Patel. He is happy to give VP Vance prominenceand camera time, for example in the public negotiations with Zelensky.

Narcissistsare never creative thinkers; they fear the spontaneity that creativityrequires. It means a loss of control. Trump is creative in government, full ofnew policy ideas, and able to speak for hours entertainingly without notes.

Narcissistsalso lack stamina. As soon as something seems hard, and they get a whiff offailure, they will quit. Trump is just the reverse of that, seemingly not evenslowed down by political attacks, personal insults, legal attacks, deplatforming,attempted assassination, and electoral defeat.

Trump isthe anti-narcissist. He seems to have absolutely no ego.

And Carneyis showing himself to be painfully stupid.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin

Things that seem epochal seem to be happening all at once, as I type, as though we are witnessing the hand of Providence. I may be speaking too soon, but rumours are growing of an economic collapse and a change in power in China. And to a more “pro-Western” regime.

What seems especially uncanny, and implausible, are reports of a sudden demographic collapse, of empty villages in the countryside, and of strangely empty streets in major cities. How can millions of people just disappear suddenly?

Possibly much work and purchasing has gone online, as it has, after all, in North America. Possibly an economic collapse means people do not have money to go out and spend, or work to get to. Possibly the government is harassing those who venture out, fearing any concentration of people might become an anti-government demonstration or a riot.

But counter to this last hypothesis, reports are that the extensive Chinese network of security cameras has been cut off. Surely not what they want to do if they fear unrest. A power shortage?

Whatever the case, it seems that something big is happening in China. And any thing big happening in China is big for the whole world.

Meantime, there is the apocalypse in Iran. Israel is suddenly, in lightning strikes,  wiping out much of Iran’s military capabilities and creating chaos in the regime. Rumours are that many top leaders have flown out to Russia or Pakistan. 

If true, this is what happens when a regime is about to collapse. The Iranian regime has for many years not had any popular support. The military was vital to hold the people down through fear. Now the military is in disarray, and shown to be weak. Iranians  may seize the opportunity to rise up. Iranian friends in Canada are cheering on the Israeli attacks. There is an organized opposition abroad; as there was when the Shah fell. Then, they successfully flew in to take charge and restore order. It may happen again now. Losing a war or some reckless military adventure is a common trigger for autocratic governments to fall. 

That’s two of the three strongest anti-Western regimes.

And then there is the third leg of the triple alliance, Russia.

Russia and Putin have also just gotten a big shock, with the Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russia. It was actually eerily similar to the Israeli attack on Iran, happening almost simultaneously, as though the same mastermind was behind both. If not God, perhaps the USA? 

It took out a significant part of Russia’s strategic abilities; and it brought the war to the common people back in Moscow. Not good for popular support, I imagine. 

Online commentators also say Russia, having now lost a million casualties, is finding it hard to replace lost manpower. They may be losing this war of attrition.

At first glance, this looks improbable. Surely Ukraine has a greater manpower problem, with a much smaller population. They’ve been fighting just as long. And a greater materiel problem: their economy is smaller, and their factories have been under attack far longer.

But the argument goes that, in order to gain ground, the Russians have been using human wave attacks, in a war which heavily favours the defense. The Ukrainians, by staying mostly on the defensive, have been able to take advantage of this. Perhaps the optics were bad, but it was the smart move. Let the other side run straight into the machine guns. 

As for materiel, Ukraine still has all of the EU, and beyond, to draw on.

Rumours online are that all this recent attack puts Putin on shaky ground; a palace coup seems possible. As with Iran, a failed military adventure is the most common trigger for the fall of an autocratic regime. 

Of course, this has all been said before, the imminent fall of Putin has been widely predicted, ever since the initial Russian invasion, supposed to take three days, was repulsed. He has shown great resilience. But even a cat has only nine lives. This recent mass drone attack, and the detonation under the Crimean bridge, does look like a possible tipping point. Like the Tet offensive was for the US in Vietnam—the frustration and sense of failure is that much greater once having started to feel victory was at last within view. It must be psychologically devastating.

With Israel’s attack on Iran, Putin has probably lost his main source of drones with which to respond to Ukraine. There are suddenly leaks that Russia and China no longer see one another as allies—consistent with the rumours that China is about to turn pro-Western. It makes sense; China has unresolved historical grievances and border disputes with Russia, and not with the USA or the West. 

So Putin too might soon and suddenly fall.

If any one of these three regimes goes, the other two are more vulnerable. We’re talking dominoes. And China, the biggest and most important of the three, seems to be a pretty sure thing.

What will the world look like if all three dominoes are down?

Hugely enhanced prestige for the US and the West. 

Surely lesser regimes like Cuba, Venezuela, or North Korea, who have been anti-Western, will also fall or convert. Partly for lost financial backing; partly for lost prestige; partly from spreading revolutionary fervour. 

More importantly, the anti-Western elites within the West will be relatively discredited: the multicult groups running Canada, France, the UK, Germany, Australia, and the EU broadly. Already in process, their fall may be turbocharged. The superiority of the Western way will have been emphatically illustrated.

Hugely enhanced prestige for Donald Trump. FWIW. Cue AI to carve a niche on Mount Rushmore. Maybe with an assist from Musk’s Boring Company.

This may be bad for peace in the Middle East. Hostility towards and fear of Iran has tended to drive Gulf States into cooperation with Israel and the US; this incentive will now be gone. 

However, a number of terrorist groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, will have lost their funding. The current forever wars will cease. Certainly, this should end the conflict in Gaza. Without this hot conflict between Israel and fellow Arabs, the other Arab states may feel better able to sign on to the Abraham Accords.

I see a day peace will come to the Middle East. It once seemed impossible for peace to come to Ireland, too. Then it did. 

With Putin gone, Russian matters are unpredictable. But on balance, it would seem that, with the relative loss of strategic capabilities, a more bellicose leadership would have nowhere to go from here—just carrying on just the same. So if you see a problem, why reinforce failure? The obvious possible change is to try for peace. Even to end Russia’s dreams of standing apart from and against the West. That gives you a chance to declare a kind of victory. After all, culturally, Russia is Europe. Division is artificial. Pure self-interest suggests integration. It is only a childish national pride that makes Russia want to fight and seek empire.

One happy consequence of the end of the regimes in Iran and China could be a revival of Christianity. The CCP has discredited atheism in China; the Ayatollahs have discredited Islamism in Iran. Rumours are of a large number of Christian conversions as it is; although such conversions are more or less illegal in both states. With the lid off, this may grow; this may blow. And the vitality of Christianity in these influential nations, in turn, may also hasten revival in the older Christian lands; a revival that already seems to be starting. When the Iron Curtain fell, Pope John Paul II and Polish Christianity brought a new enthusiasm to Catholicism.

And Christianity is the backbone and foundation of Western culture. Is a Renaissance about to begin?

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

Amazing Grace

 

A sentence catches my eye from Margaret Visser’s book The Geometry of Love. She is speaking of the unicursal labyrinths that grace Medieval churches; the kind that have no wrong turns, and only require patience to walk through. “The road symbolizes a human life with all its difficulties and failures, and the common feeling of being lost; the message is that mental agility is not the most important gift for the spiritual life.”

I believe being lost is indeed a common feeling. It is the true essence of what psychiatrists call “depression.” Not sorrow, not anxiety, but a sense of not knowing which way to turn, how to proceed. This is the worst of all feelings.

And I think this is an important message: “mental agility is not the most important gift for the spiritual life.” That is, for life itself. 

I long ago noticed, in my studies of legends and fairy tales, that this message is conveyed not only by unicursal labyrinths. Whenever a tale does involve a maze or labyrinth of the kind with wrong turns and dead ends, the hero does not escape by their own cleverness. Theseus escapes the Minoan labyrinth not through his own quick wit, as Oedipus escapes the Sphinx, but rather anticlimactically because Ariadne gives him a cheat sheet: the thread, and advice to always take the left (or was it right?) turn. In the Grimm tale, Hansel cleverly lays a path of white stones when his parents seem to abandon him and his sister in the forest. But his parents discover the trick, and try again, after preventing him from collecting stones a second time. So, still ingenious, he resorts to dropping breadcrumbs. And this does not work—the birds eat the breadcrumbs, and he and Gretel are truly lost. Having worked it all out brilliantly, it is still of no use. In the end, it is Gretel, not Hansel, who saves the day. 

And so forth, for every example I can find.

There is a consistent message being whispered in our ear. Ultimately, for our direction and our salvation, we must not rely on our own cleverness. We cannot pull ourselves up by our bootstraps. It must be faith, and love.

It must be so: some people are much smarter than others. Yet God made us all, and made us as we are. A good God would not give advantage to the most intelligent, and condemn others simply for stupidity.

As Aquinas said, all his subtle philosophy was, in the end, a sideshow. If we rely on our own intelligence, we are doomed.

The answers are written in our heart.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

Trump's Game in Iran

 

The US is at pains to stress that Israel’s current strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is entirely Israel’s doing, and America is not involved.

I do not believe that for a moment. Methinks they doth protest too much.

Trump has been saying for years that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Last winter he said that if the Gaza hostages were not released promptly, all hell would break loose.

Trump is a skilled negotiator. He has set this up as “good cop, bad cop,” to force Iran to the table with minimum risk or destruction. I think he intentionally spread the rumour a couple of months ago that he and Netanyahu were having a spat, simply in order to give this plausibility. The media bought it.

Now Iran may be led to appeal to US for protection from Israel. And Trump can name his terms. He has given them an escape ramp. In the meantime, other actors throughout the Muslim world have less cause or claim to attack US interests, minimizing risks. And protecting the US’s Arab and Muslim allies. All the risks are on Israel, but Israel was already entirely at risk and has nothing exposed and nothing to lose.

And Trump preserves his domestic reputation as a man of peace, the basis for much of his popular support.

It is even possible Trump is playing a similar game with Ukraine—faking his hostility to Zelensky, which really did look like something staged for the cameras, a bit from his old reality show. Thereby letting the Europeans take the lead, while feeding Ukraine the intelligence needed for them to pull off spectacular strikes recently within Russia. With official US sanction, their hands were tied, over fears of sparking a nuclear exchange and world war. But Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and strategic submarines were very much in the US interest. Trump may still be feeding technology to Ukraine through European intermediaries. 

Again, this would let him pose as an honest broker to Putin, someone Putin could turn to without losing face to make a peace. And it lets him, again, stay the pacifist for his domestic audience. The Europeans would surely be delighted to go along, because it makes them look independent and tough and consequential. Good for their ego.

Meantime, Trump’s tariffs on China seem to have caused some sort of tipping point, and the Chinese leadership is collapsing.

Imagine if Trump’s negotiating skills actually manage to achieve, in short order, the collapse of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian governments, all without American blood being spilled.

It would earn him a spot on Mount Rushmore.

Next question: was Trump’s spat with Elon Musk also faked, to protect Musk’s business interests from attacks, while also giving congresspeople, especially Democratic congresspeople, cover to support the DOGE cuts without looking subservient to Trump?

This doesn’t require imagining Trump is playing 4-D chess. It’s more like the good old American game of poker. Plus acting talent.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

The End Is Not Near

 

Many evangelical Protestants are awaiting the End Times. They keep seeing signs of it in the news. Many Catholics are into this too, referring to the prophecies of St. Malachi, and proclaiming this the last pope.

Bad idea.

From the Bible:

“you do not know when your Lord is coming … the Son of Man is coming at an hour you do not expect.” – Matthew

“you do not know when that time will come… the Son of Man is coming at an hour you do not expect." -- Mark 

“that day will sneak up on you like a trap. For it will come on those who are unsuspecting all over the earth.“ -- Luke

“the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night.”—Paul

Aren’t these passages telling us it is foolishness to look for signs? We will not be given signs. It will happen when we least suspect it. The need is to always act as though the next second may be our last. At any moment, we might die and come face to face with our maker.

Which is obviously true.

Jesus actually said “Truly I tell you, there are some standing here who will not taste death before they see the Son of Man coming in His kingdom.” (Matthew) “Truly I tell you that there are some standing here who will not taste death before they see the kingdom of God come with power” (Mark 9:1). “Truly I tell you, there are some standing here who will not taste death before they see the kingdom of God” (Luke 9:27). That was 2000 years ago.

So we are always in the End Times. We enter the End Times at physical death, death to the world; because we do not die then, we enter eternity. We must always be ready for that hour, because we might die at any time. The end of the world at large is largely irrelevant.

The belief that the Second Coming is imminent and about to begin a reign of peace and justice on earth, “millennialism,” has been with us for more than the past two thousand years; it was also the essence of the traditional Jewish belief in the coming of the Messiah. It had a great recent resurgence in the US the 19th century. Specific dates were proposed: 1844 was a big one. New denominations were formed on this belief. But it keeps not happening. Encyclopedia Britannica writes “For all the costly failures, … the appeal of millennialism remains, and generation after generation of devotees have sought the chimerical kingdom.” 

It is worth noting that the belief in the imminent dawning of a New Age has sometimes brought more than mere disappointment. It led to the destruction of the ancient state of Judea and the diaspora of the Jews, after the failed Bar Kochba revolt. In China, it led to twenty million deaths in the Taiping Rebellion in the 19th century.

Marxism and Fascism are examples of secular, non-religious millennial movements. They have been responsible for the holocaust of many millions.

The Catholic Church properly considers all millennial movements manifestations of the Antichrist. This has been so since Saint Augustine. The Catechism of the Catholic Church reads:

“The Antichrist's deception already begins to take shape in the world every time the claim is made to realize within history that messianic hope which can only be realized beyond history through the eschatological judgment. The Church has rejected even modified forms of this falsification of the kingdom to come under the name of millenarianism, especially the ‘intrinsically perverse’ political form of a secular messianism.”

Jesus himself came to disprove millenarianism—that is, the Jewish expectation of a messiah who would rule the world.

I think it is true that we are living through a time of epochal change, due to the effects of the new technology. Just as there was a great general change at the Renaissance, arguably due to the invention of printing. Or as a result of the Industrial Revolution in Britain. But the sky is not falling.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

The Case for Segregation by Sex in Schools

 

I once worked for a Canadian college contracted to open a branch in Qatar. The one thing they insisted on, before signing the contract, was that men and women would be taught in the same integrated classes. This was a violation of local norms and customs, but was reluctantly agreed to. 

But this is a bad idea. The best studies we have show consistently that both boys and girls, men and women, do best when classes are segregated by sex. We used to know this—expensive private schools were once always segregates by sex, since we knew this gave their students an advantage.

Any teacher is surely aware, as I am, that boys and girls think differently, have different interests, and learn in different ways. If you have both sexes on the same class, at best, each of them is getting only 50% of the learning time. More often, one sex’s interests are sacrificed entirely to those of the other. Currently, it is boys who are suffering—the more so because most teachers are women. And the zeitgeist demands that girls be favoured over boys. We are losing generations of men as a result.

Leaving alone that, in a mixed sex classroom, attention wanders from the lesson to the opposite sex. After a certain age, it is an extreme distraction. And it is in the best interest of everyone that the young not be tempted or encouraged to engage in such activities earlier than necessary, and before they have full command of their passions and are in a position to raise children. The integrated classroom seems perfectly designed to set young people up for disaster.

So why did we start such a mad practice? Economics. In small rural communities: even students in different grades would need to share a classroom. But that is rarely the case now, in our urban culture. It certainly was not the case in Qatar.

There, and more generally, it is the influence of the civil rights movement in the US. Classes and schools were once, in the US South, segregated by race. And this was determined by the Supreme Court to be discriminatory: there was no such thing as “Separate but equal.” 

So the same logic was applied to the sexes, with disastrous results. 

The initial premise was false. There is such a thing as separate but equal: an example is the public and Catholic separate schools in Ontario. No Catholics feel discriminated against for having their own schools. Nol Anglophones in Quebec feel discriminated against for having their own schools. The problem in the US was disparate treatment, not segregation: the black schools were not as well funded.

The proof is that we are now at the point that US blacks themselves are demanding segregation wherever possible. As are “First Nations” in Canada. Black parents want their own schools; black students want their own lunch rooms, their own graduation ceremonies.

In the case of race, this seems relatively harmless, one way or the other. But in the case of sex, it seems obviously preferable.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

Being Nice Is Uncharitable

 

Bishop Barron makes a vital point. Being "nice" is moral cowardice.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

Is the Bible History?

 

Nebuchadnezzar, Blake

I have argued that science cannot be used to test the Bible; the Bible is intrinsically more reliable than science.

Does this mean that the story of Noah’s flood is history?

No.

Much of the Bible is history; but it is a compendium. History in itself is of no special value, except inasmuch as it reveals the divine will or serves as warning or illustration. The Bible features many literary genres: proverbs, psalms, poems, lists, codes of law, descriptive passages, philosophical essays, analogies and allegories, even humour. It is a modern prejudice, dating only from about the beginning of the Twentieth Century, that the Bible must be read “literally.” This is part of the scientistic heresy. Jesus obviously did not share this prejudice. He spoke in parables.

A correspondent sent me a video claiming archeological and textual “proof” that the Book of Daniel was history, written in the 6th century BC, and accurately predicting world events up to the 2nd century BC. And this prophecy was then advanced as proof of the divine inspiration of the Bible. Praise God!

But anyone familiar with literary genres should recognize immediately that the Book of Daniel is a hero legend. It shows all the features of that genre; like a modern superhero comic. It was not considered history by the ancient rabbis who compiled the Talmud.

A hero legend will include much accurate historical detail; like a modern urban legend, it is supposed to be almost but not quite believable. This is not meant to deceive, but to make it more vivid and compelling. So the Paul Bunyan legend cites specific geographical features: his footprints made the Great Lakes, and so forth. It is no surprise that many things spoken of in the book fit the archeological record. The one thing that will not be historical is the superhuman deeds of the hero—that is, Daniel and his prophecies. They are meant to convey a spiritual message. Nebuchadnezzar is a parable of pride.

The idea that prophets predict the future is a misunderstanding; they are really always speaking of the potentials of the present. “If you do this, this is likely to happen.” We are not meant to know the future, although God does; it subverts our free will, which is the whole point of our being here. And trying to do so implies a lack of trust in God.

The arbitrary focus on history is part of the essential error of scientism: materialism. Scientism assumes that only the physical is real. This is obvious nonsense: love is real, as are the other emotions, yet they are not experienced through the five senses. Ideas and concepts are real, but cannot be seen, touched, or bitten into. The past and the future are real too, but only the present is visible. Indeed, we never know whether the mental images we form from the information of our senses correspond to anything real outside themselves. See Bishop Berkeley.

The Bible is talking about the whole of human experience, not just the stuff visible on the ground.

The story of the flood may have been inspired in part by an actual flood; but the waters are the waters of change that wash all things away. The ark is the ark of memory, in which fertile impressions of each experience endure. In wicked times, the righteous man turns from the world outside, and keeps to God’s council alone.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

On Science and the Bible

 

Copernicus

A friend sends me a video of Frank Turek debating the story of Noah and the great flood. Can the Bible really be true when it talks of a universal flood?

I have trouble with the basic idea that the Bible must be shown to conform with current science to show that the Biblical account is true. If this is how you think, that science is the ultimate test of truth, then scientism is your religion, not Christianity. Science actually by its nature cannot establish truth, and does not claim to. Its conclusions are always provisional; a plausible explanation of what is observed, until refuted. Scientific “truth” has changed a lot just since I was in high school.

If science seems to contradict the Biblical account, the more reasonable assumption is that science is missing something.

The way to test the Bible is by deduction from first principles, not induction. 

Point 1: the existence of God is a logical necessity. This can be proven a dozen ways.

Point 2: God by his nature can do any thing he likes. He is God.

Point 3: God’s nature is necessarily essentially and infinitely good. A perfect being must be perfectly good.

Point 4: A good God would want to reveal himself to us fully; and his plan for us.

Point 5: One must expect him to appear in human form. This is the best way for us to comprehend him. As William Blake rightly observes, the highest thing a human can imagine is a perfected human. A perfect circle or equilateral triangle or cloud does not approach this.

Point 6: Jesus’s resurrection, although inductive evidence, is our warrant that Jesus is the specific form in which he came to us.

Point 7: Jesus certifies the Church and the Bible. He cites scripture as authoritative, and commissions the apostles. God would not leave us without continuing guidance.

Therefore, the Bible is a more reliable authority than science, which may change tomorrow.

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.

Unforced Busing

 

One day last week, my city made all transit free in honour of “Clean air day.” The buses were packed.

Which made me think. The city is spending an enormous amount putting in new bicycle lanes, in hopes of decreasing our carbon footprints. Cyclists I know are not impressed. They say it is suicidal to ride a bike on them. I hear being a bicycle-based delivery person in a large city is one of the most dangerous jobs on record.

Add to that the fact that our city is under ice and snow for four to five months of the year, making cycling difficult.

Wouldn’t it be cheaper, simpler, and quicker to just make public transit free, to get people to leave the car at home? Pay for it out of general taxation, like the streetlights, or medicare, or the roads themselves? After all, transportation is almost a basic human need.

Perhaps not completely free; then people might use the buses for unnecessary trips. But keep fares quite low, perhaps $1 per ride; and free for seniors and students.

Two birds would thereby meet their maker: you would be cutting down on carbon, and you would be helping out the very poor. And, for that matter, giving a boost to local business.

Why not?

'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.