Dean Baker's Blog, page 84

The New York Times Says Wages Are Rising in Europe and This Economist Is Puzzled

The headline of the piece told readers "Wages are rising in Europe. But economists are puzzled." Yes, well it does seem pretty puzzling, since it's not clear what wage increases the piece is talking about.

Here is the key paragraph:

"When official data last month showed that hourly wages in the eurozone rose 2 percent in the first three months of 2018 — finally — the central bank got the signal it was looking for. It announced it would end its main stimulus measure at the end of the year. At...

Trump's "Victory" in Trade War

I see that Trump seems to be claiming victory in his trade war based on a deal with the European Union to negotiate lower tariffs. I want to take some credit for calling this one based on an oped I wrote two weeks ago, but couldn't get printed. Here's the version I drafted on July 12th.

 

The End Game in Donald Trump’s Trade War

Like many economists I have been puzzled over the likely end game in the trade war that Donald Trump has initiated with most of our major trading partners. He ha...

Manufacturing Sweet Spot Isn't All That Sweet

The Wall Street Journal may have gotten a bit carried away in telling readers that manufacturing had hit a "sweet spot" based on the Fed's data on manufacturing production in June. The immediate story was the Federal Reserve Board's report that manufacturing production had increased 0.8 percent in June following a 1.0 drop in May. The May decline was the result of a fire at parts supplier for Ford.

While the bounceback was encouraging, it still means that for the two-month period manufacturin...

The Washington Post Thinks It Is a New Idea to Tell People to Worry About Mobility and Not Inequality

Just when you thought economic commentary in the Washington Post couldn't get any more insipid, Roger Lowenstein proves otherwise. In a business section "perspective" he tells readers:

"But what if inequality is the wrong metric. Herewith a modest proposition: economic inequality is not the best yardstick. What we should be paying attention to is social mobility."

Wow, what a novel new idea, as though right-wingers have not been pushing this line since the dawn of time, don't worry that your...

Trump Does the Unthinkable: Criticizes the Fed

Greetings to all from Utah!

Much of the business press has been in an uproar becase Donald Trump has criticized the Fed's policy of raising interest rates. Trump complains that interest rate hikes will slow the economy and increase the trade deficit by raising the value of the dollar.

The business press is outraged not necessarily because they disagree with what Trump says, although many surely do, but they argue it violates some fundamental principle of government for the president to talk a...

Moving Week!

I'll be moving in the next week, so I will likely not be blogging. Hopefully, I will be up and blogging by next Sunday.

Carlos Lozada's Less Than Honest Assessment of Whether Truth Can Survive the Trump Presidency

Carlos Lozada, the non-fiction book critic for the Washington Post, promised "an honest investigation" of whether truth can survive the Trump administration in the lead article in the paper's Sunday Outlook section.  He delivers considerably less.

Most importantly and incredibly Lozada never considers the possibility that respect for traditional purveyors of "truth" has been badly weakened by the fact that they have failed to do so in many important ways in recent years. Furthermore, the...

Catherine Rampell Can't Even Imagine that China Would Ignore U.S. Copyrights and Patents

Apparently, the idea that China would ignore US intellectual property claims as a weapon in Trump's trade war is simply unimaginable to Rampell, the Post's lead economic columnist. It doesn't even merit a sentence in a column devoted to the alternatives China might pursue given the limited amount of US imports on which it can impose tariffs. Since Rampell can't imagine how this weapon can work, let me try.

Suppose that China's government announces that, in response to Trump's latest round of...

Health Care Spending and Health in GDP

The Washington Post had an interesting piece on how people with chronic conditions, such as high blood pressure, can now have key measures monitored remotely on an ongoing basis through a new program. This will allow for health care professionals to quickly detect problems and recommend steps to counteract them or to see a physician for care, if needed. As the piece points out, this is likely to lead to both better health outcomes and lower costs, as many patients may take steps to alleviate...

Trump Calls It "Really Amazing" That NATO Partners Are Increasing Military Spending by 0.17 Percent of GDP

In case you were wondering how large that $33 billion increase in military spending that the other NATO countries agreed to was, it comes to roughly 0.16 percent of their collective GDP. Apparently Donald Trump was impressed with this commitment since he called it "really amazing."