Dean Baker's Blog, page 267

The Doom and Gloom in Denmark and the Washington Post

Denmark has long cold rainy winters where the sun only shows up briefly. It is understandable that someone can get pretty sour living in these conditions. But that is no reason for the Washington Post to run scurrilous screeds from Scandinavia that inaccurately impugn the region.

That is a reasonable description of Michael Booth's Sunday Outlook piece, which managed to get most of the important points wrong in a piece titled, "Stop the Scandimania: Nordic nations are not the utopia they are...

Denmark "Defends" the Krone by Lowering Interest Rate: More Which Way Is Up Problems

Usually when a country takes steps to "defend" its currency, the problem is that the value of its currency is falling in world currency markets. This is most often due to higher inflation in the country in question, although the situation can be worsened by speculative attacks. Raising interest rates is a standard form of defense, since it makes it more desirable to hold assets denominated in that currency.

Against this normal pattern, the NYT told readers that Denmark was "defending" its cu...

The Big Economic Slowdown in China

The NYT ran an article headlined, "China's Economy Expands at Slowest Rate in Quarter Century." People who read the piece discovered that China's growth rate for 2014 was estimated at 7.4 percent, which is more than three times the growth rate projected for the United States. More strikingly, this is not much of a slowdown from the last two years.

The I.M.F. reports growth in both of these years was 7.7 percent. Measured as a share of growth, a drop from 7.7 percent to 7.4 percent in China wo...

More on Paul Krugman and the Swiss Movement

Paul Krugman is still upset over the decision by Switzerland's central bank to end its peg to the euro and allow the value of the Swiss franc to rise. Since some of us non-hyper-inflation worriers don't share his anger, perhaps it worth explaining the difference in views.

Krugman sees the peg as a sort of quantitative easing. He argues it was working (Switzerland's economy has largely recovered), so there was no reason to abandon it. He sees the basis for abandonment as a needless fear over i...

What Part of Japan's 3.5 Percent Unemployment Rate is Anemic?

A Washington Post article on President Obama's new willingness to push an economic agenda contrasted U.S. economic performance with "the anemic economies of Europe and Japan." It's not clear on what basis Japan's economy is supposed to be anemic compared with the U.S.

It's unemployment rate stood at 3.5 percent in November, the most recent month for which data are available. Its employment rate has risen by two full percentage points since the end of 2012 when its new government shifted towar...

Paul Krugman and the Swiss Movement

It isn't often that I think Paul Krugman gets one wrong, but I think he wrongly attacks those chocolate loving cuckoo clock making Swiss in his column today. His complaint is that the Swiss central bank abandoned its commitment to keep down the value of the Swiss franc against the euro. Krugman sees this a failure of will, with the central bank giving up a commitment to pursue an inflationary policy. This is part of a larger saga of feckless central banks that continue to obsess about inflati...

Can We Talk About Patent Monopolies?

It's more than a bit bizarre that patent protection doesn't get a single mention in a NYT column on "why drugs cost so much." Of course without government granted patent monopolies the vast majority of drugs would sell for $5-$10 per prescription. And, drug companies would not have incentive to mislead the public about the safety and effectiveness of their drugs.

Does the 0.25 Interest Rate on Government Debt Demonstrate Japan's "Need" for Budget Discipline?

The NYT has somehow decided that Japan needs budget discipline. It's not clear what the basis for this determination is, but the fourth paragraph of an article on Japan's latest budget proposal told readers:

"With the budget proposal, Japan is trying to balance its need for growth and discipline."

The markets apparently do not see the same need as the NYT. The current interest rate on 10-year government bonds is 0.25 percent.

Do More Job Openings Mean Higher Wages?

Neil Irwin has an Upshot piece making the case for why we should expect to see wages rising soon. He noted a survey of employers showing more are planning to raise wages than in prior years. He also noted the promise by Aetna to place a floor of $16 an hour on its workers' pay.

However the main piece of evidence is a rise in the number of job opening to a high for the recovery. While this is indeed encouraging, there are three important qualifications that deserve mention.

First, the biggest...

Serious Confusion About Economics in Europe

The folks setting economic policy in Europe have already inflicted massive damage on the continent, putting foreign enemies and natural disasters to shame. But the pain goes on.

The NYT reported on a preliminary ruling on the European Central Bank's (ECB) plans to buy government bonds by one of the advocates general at the Court of Justice of the European Union. According to the piece, the ruling authorized the ECB to buy government debt, but said:

"the central bank should not buy government...