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October 10, 2024

Don’t count on a recount to change the winner in close elections this fall. They rarely do

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the American electorate so evenly divided, there will be elections in November close enough that officials will have to recount the votes. Just don’t expect those recounts to change the winner. They rarely do, even when the margins are tiny.

“The (original) count is pretty accurate because the machines work — they work very well,” said Tammy Patrick, a former election official in Arizona who is now with the National Association of Election Officials. “We have recounts and we have audits to make sure we got it right.”

There have been 36 recounts in statewide general elections since America’s most famous recount in 2000. That year, Republican George W. Bush maintained his lead over Democrat Al Gore in Florida — and won the presidency — after a recount was stopped by the Supreme Court.

Since then, only three of those statewide recounts resulted in a new winner, and all three were decided by hundreds of votes, not thousands. That’s according to an Associated Press review of statewide recounts using data from the AP vote count, state election offices and research by Fair Vote, a nonpartisan organization that researches elections and advocates for changes in the way elections are conducted.

Most states allow recounts when the margin between the top candidates falls within a specific margin, such as 0.5 percentage points, even when that means the number of votes separating them is actually in the thousands or even tens of thousands. But there is no precedent for a recount changing the winner in a race with margins that big, at least not since Congress made sweeping changes to U.S. election law in 2002.

The most recent statewide race overturned by a recount was in 2008 in Minnesota. Republican Sen. Norm Coleman led Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes in the initial count, out of more than 2.9 million ballots cast. After a hand recount, Franken won by 225 votes, a shift of 0.02 percentage points, or two one-hundredths of a percentage point.

Among the 36 statewide recounts since 2000, the average change in the winning margin, whether it grew or shrank, was 0.03 percentage points. The biggest shift was 0.11 percentage points in a relatively low turnout race for Vermont auditor in 2006. In that race, incumbent Republican Randy Brock led Democrat Thomas Salmon by 137 votes after the initial count. A recount flipped the race and Salmon won by 102 votes.

Recounts aren’t limited to general elections. They happen in primaries, too.

Earlier this year, the Washington state primary for commissioner of public lands went to a recount after the initial tally had Democrat Dave Upthegrove leading Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson by 51 votes, out of more than 1.9 million votes counted, as they vied for second place.

After the recount, Upthegrove’s lead shrank by just two votes. In Washington’s primary system, the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of their political party.

There are even more recounts in downballot races that are sometimes decided by a handful of votes. But even in these lower turnout elections, recounts rarely change the winners.

“Recounts are shifting a very small number of votes,” said Deb Otis, director of research and policy at Fair Vote. “We’re going to see recounts in 2024 that are not going to change the outcome.”

States have a wide variety of laws on when and how recounts are conducted. Many states have automatic recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is within a certain margin. The most common margin is 0.5 percentage points, but there is a lot of variation. Some states allow candidates to request recounts but require that they pay for them — unless the winner changes.

Alaska, Montana, South Dakota and Texas mandate recounts only if there is an exact tie, though candidates in those states can request a recount. South Carolina has automatic recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is 1% or less of the total votes cast in the race.

The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if the AP determines the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

In Washington’s public lands primary, which was ultimately decided by 49 votes, the AP waited until after the recount to declare the winner because the margin was so close. But in cases where the number of votes separating the top candidates is larger, for example in a statewide race where the candidates are separated by thousands or tens of thousands of votes, the AP may determine that it’s not possible for a recount to reverse the outcome.

Statewide recounts almost always change the results by a few votes.

Patrick said that’s usually because of human error -– either by an election worker or by voters. For example, paper ballots are often rejected because voters didn’t fill them out correctly, but they might later get added to the count after a review.

Paper ballots usually require voters to fill in little bubbles next to their chosen candidate, just like students taking standardized tests. Tabulation machines count the votes by looking for a mark on a very specific area of the ballot, Patrick said. If voters indicate their preference in some other way, like circling their chosen candidate, the machines won’t count the vote.

In some states, bipartisan panels review rejected ballots to see if they can determine the intent of the voter. Some states do these reviews whether there is a recount or not. Other states only do them if there is a recount. Still others never do these reviews and the ballots are simply rejected.

Patrick said she’s seen ballots marked many different ways that weren’t picked up by the tabulation machines, like voters using crayons or marking their choices with a highlighter.

In the Minnesota recount, a voter filed in the dot for Franken but also wrote “Lizard People” in the box for write-in votes. The ballot was rejected.

“Voters do a lot of very interesting things with their ballots,” Patrick said.

Stephen Ohlemacher is AP’s Election Decision Editor.

Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Published on October 10, 2024 04:15

49ers at Seahawks: Five keys to quieting the noise amid Seattle sound

SEATTLE – George Kittle last was seen running off the Seahawks’ Lumen Field with a juicy turkey atop a silver platter, having commandeered the prized trappings from the 49ers’ postgame celebration on Thanksgiving night.

“I actually got in the locker room and I will say the turkey did get eaten,” Kittle recalled Tuesday in advance of the 49ers’ return Thursday night. “It was pretty incredible. But they took that platter back.”

Two years ago, the 49ers flew home wearing red T-shirts emblazoned with the words “Conquered The West,” having clinched the division title with four games to go. Go back to 2019 and they came away with the NFC playoffs’ No. 1 seed, on a late December night when “Big Play Dre” Greenlaw made a heroic goal-line stop.

All of which is to say that when the Kyle Shanahan-coached 49ers need a big win in Seattle, they’ve gotten one, all due respect to the Seahawks’ eight-game home rule over the 49ers from 2012-18.

The 49ers (2-3) and the Seahawks (3-2) each are trying to avoid a third straight defeat when they meet for the 5:15 p.m. kickoff (Prime Video). To remind veterans and to educate newcomers of the “incredibly difficult environment” that awaits in Seattle, Shanahan showed them video Tuesday of past visits, according to Kittle.

“It’s one of my favorite places to play because of the crowd,” Kittle added. “One, it’s a night game. Two, it’s an incredibly loud field. Three, they hate us, and so it’s extra loud and I absolutely love that. It’s one of the best environments in football, especially for the 49ers.”

Here are five ways toward another victorious visit:

Seattle Seahawks’ D.K. Metcalf (14) makes a touchdown catch in front of San Francisco 49ers’ Charvarius Ward (7) in the second quarter of their NFC wild-card playoff game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

1. TIGHT PASS COVERAGE

No quarterback is throwing more than Seattle’s Geno Smith (1,466 yards; five touchdowns among 199 passes), and he is targeting possibly the NFL’s best receiving trio: D.K. Metcalf (28 catches, 421 yards, two touchdowns), Tyler Lockett (22-274-0) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (29-257-1).

“They’ve got some talent over there. Geno can stretch the field and they can get hot,” Shanahan said.

It’s not just whether Charvarius Ward can shake off an early-season slump and a bruised knee to again blanket Metcalf in Ward’s favorite matchup every season. Whether Smith targets Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Isaac Yiadom or Renardo Green, the 49ers secondary can’t afford miscommunication in one of the most raucous environments in sports.

“We’re losing games so nobody is thrilled with how we’re playing. It’s just been different,” Ward said. “We have to get back to the level we were at last year making plays on the ball and forcing turnovers. No DB has a pick within the first five games yet, so we have to start making plays.”

The 49ers’ safeties have not served well as a last line of defense, either. With 2022 All-Pro Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) sidelined a month or more, look for rookie Malik Mustapha to pair with Ji’Ayir Brown, making for an aggressive tandem that has combined for just one interception and 11 starts in their neophyte careers.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy throws to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for a 28-yard touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

2. PURDY EFFICIENCY

Only one of Brock Purdy’s 942 career passes have been intercepted and returned for a touchdown, and it so happened to come here last Thanksgiving by Jordyn Brooks in the third quarter of that 31-13 win.

Purdy is coming off a two-interception game, with both passes deflected into jump-ball thefts. Last October, Purdy followed up his first two-interception game (at Minnesota) with another the next game (vs. Cincinnati) to extend the 49ers’ losing streak to three.

Thus, Purdy’s precision must revert to his earlier form, after completing less than 56% of his passes in each of the past two games. He’ll have to do so against a Seahawks defense overseen by first-year coach Mike Macdonald, who previously coordinated the Baltimore Ravens’ defense that intercepted Purdy four times in their Christmas rout at Levi’s Stadium.

Purdy is 2-0 in Seattle. He played through fractured ribs in November 2022 to win his first career road start, and he shook off that pick-six to prevail last year. Those experiences aside, “this is a new year, it’s a new team for both sides, and we’ve just got to go in, execute, and be dialed in at every moment,” Purdy sayd.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – NOVEMBER 23: Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers tackles Zach Charbonnet #26 of the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field on November 23, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

3. RALLY TO TACKLE

As pass-happy as the Seahawks and 49ers have been through five games, this rivalry is often dictated by physical affairs that must be complemented with hard-charging running backs.

“They’ve kind of gotten away from the run but we expect that to change this week,” Nick Bosa said. “We’re going to have to earn (pass-rushing opportunities) because I’m sure they’re not too happy with how last game went in terms of how many times they gave their top back the ball. We’re expecting to get a heavy dose of that to start.”

The Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker III should be fresh after getting just five carries (19 yards) in Sunday’s upset loss to the New York Giants. Smith ran four times for 72 yards, and the 49ers are wary of such plays Bosa described as college-like, run-pass options.

Walker’s ability to break tackles is foremost on the 49ers’ radar, especially after they yielded 169 yards combined Sunday to James Conner and Kyler Murray in the Cardinals’ 24-23 comeback. “You watch the tape and he’s doing stuff you don’t see from a lot of guys in terms of breaking tackles, running away from guys, seeing the holes,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “I played against him the last couple of years and I’ve seen it and felt it in real life. We’re all going to have to be aware of that and gang-tackle and swarm him all day long.”

San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason runs against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half of an NFL football game in Seattle, Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

4. RUN HARD, TOO

Holding onto the ball must be Jordan Mason’s priority as he bulls his way into defenders. On his 105th carry this season, the first lost fumble of his career ended up in the Cardinals’ hands for their winning drive.

Mason also botched two exchanges the previous game, so there will be an onus on ball security from a 536-yard runner whose style reminds left tackle Trent Williams (and others) of former Seahawks legend Marshawn Lynch.

Mason could and should be spelled on occasion by Deebo Samuel, who’s averaged just 2.4 yards rushing; Samuel has scored on 1-of-15 carries and 0-of-17 receptions. “Deebo’s too good to not eventually have a big (game),” Shanahan said.

San Francisco 49ers’ George Kittle (85) is tackled by Arizona Cardinals’ Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (42) while attempting to get a first down in the fourth quarter of their NFL game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The Arizona Cardinals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-23. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

5. SCORE MORE

Sunday’s loss marked only the sixth time in Shanahan’s eight seasons the 49ers failed to score after halftime, excluding their 2022 season’s NFC Championship Game folly in Philadelphia. The 49ers (2-3) are still scoring the NFL’s 10th-most points at 25.2 per game. When scoring under that average, they’re 0-3.

The 49ers must improve upon last weekend’s season-worst red zone efficiency, when they converted only 1-of-6 situations into a touchdown. Their 40.9% conversion rate on the season ranks 29th, a far cry from last season’s league-leading 67.2%.

The Seahawks, after improving to 3-0 with a 24-3 home rout of Miami, have allowed the NFL’s most points the past two weeks with losses at Detroit (42-29) and Sunday against the New York Giants (29-20).

If the 49ers must settle for field goals, that job shifts from Jake Moody (high-ankle sprain) to the newly signed Matthew Wright, who auditioned Monday and re-signed Tuesday; Wright spent five days on the 49ers’ practice squad before last season’s opener.

Wright auditioned Monday with four other kickers after he flew in from Tampa, Fla., where evacuations were underway ahead of Hurricane Milton. “If the workout was a couple of days later, I probably wouldn’t have made it,” Wright said of his path back to the 49ers.

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Published on October 10, 2024 04:00

Need to go to the hospital? Texas and Florida want to know your immigration status

By Shalina Chatlani, Stateline.org

State Sen. Victor Torres represents predominantly Hispanic Osceola County in central Florida. At Sunday Mass at his local church, immigrants often tell him they are scared to seek health care.

“They say, ‘My mother is ill, or my kid is sick, but I don’t have insurance,’’’ the Democrat said in an interview. “And I tell them, ‘You cannot be turned away. Go to the hospital. Don’t wait until the last minute when it’s too late.’”

Under the federal Emergency Medical Treatment & Labor Act (EMTALA), hospitals that have emergency departments and participate in Medicare — about 98% of hospitals in the United States — must provide emergency care to all patients, regardless of their ability to pay.

Florida and Texas, however, recently have required hospitals to ask patients about their immigration status. Supporters say the new policies will illuminate the costs of caring for people living in the country illegally, but critics say they are designed to dissuade immigrants from seeking care.

Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in May 2023 signed a sweeping immigration law that includes a provision requiring hospitals that accept Medicaid (which includes state funding) to collect data on patients’ immigration status. In August, Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott followed suit, by signing an executive order that requires Texas public hospitals to collect data on the costs they incur to provide emergency and inpatient care for people lacking permanent legal status.

“Texans should not have to shoulder the burden of financially supporting medical care for illegal immigrants,” Abbott said in issuing the order.

Data from Texas isn’t available yet. In Florida, however, a March report by the state Agency for Health Care Administration suggests patients lacking legal status account for a relatively narrow slice of overall health care spending.

In the second half of 2023, the agency found, immigrants without legal status accounted for 0.82% of hospital visits and 0.83% of emergency department visits. Florida hospitals spent a total of $69 billion in 2022, so based on those percentages, they spent about $566 million on care for immigrants lacking legal status.

The agency acknowledged that it did not know how much of that $566 million was so-called uncompensated care — that is, care not paid for by insurance or by the patient. It also did not find any correlation between a hospital’s level of uncompensated care and its percentage of patients living in the country illegally, nor was there an obvious connection between a hospital’s profitability and the percentage of its patients who were such immigrants.

In fact, the agency found that high levels of spending on uncompensated care were more associated with a county being rural than having a lot of immigrants lacking legal status.

“Research overwhelmingly suggests that immigrants don’t use as much health care and don’t use higher benefits than U.S.-born people,” said Drishti Pillai, associate director of the racial equity and health policy program at KFF, a health policy research organization. Pillai recently coauthored a KFF issue brief on the potential effects of the Florida and Texas measures.

KFF has found that immigrants spend less on health care than U.S.-born residents, and some research suggests that they end up subsidizing the health care of other U.S. residents through their payment of insurance premiums and taxes.

In both states, hospitals must inform patients that no matter how they respond to immigration-related questions, they will receive care. In Florida, hospitals also must tell patients that their answers won’t be reported to immigration authorities. Nevertheless, data from Florida suggests that the patients are being scared away by the prospect of being asked about their immigration status.

DeSantis has boasted that the policy has resulted in a decrease in Medicaid spending.

“We knew we’d get no support from the federal government, so we’ve had to do all these things at the state level,” DeSantis told Fox News in a June interview. “We made sure when you have people show up at the hospital that we’re asking about immigration status, and that’s caused the Medicaid expenditures to plummet by 50% in the state of Florida.”

A recent analysis of federal and state data backs up that assertion. In 2022, the year before the Florida law was enacted, state and federal Medicaid spending on emergency services for immigrants without legal status totaled $148.4 million. Between July 1, 2023, when the law took effect, and May 3, 2024, the total declined to $67 million, according to a Politico analysis of data from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Medicaid, which provides health insurance to people with low incomes, is jointly funded by the federal government and states.

Florida Republican state Rep. Rick Roth, who runs a farm and employs hundreds of migrant laborers, voted for the measure. “I believe that the bill was mostly political, not punitive. It doesn’t prevent them from getting health care. It [creates] a perception that it’s going to be more difficult.”

Other supporters of the Florida law and Texas order say it makes sense to figure out how much money states are spending on care for immigrants here illegally — and if possible, to reduce it.

“Today, our health care system is overrun by illegals who came into our country, and the cost is borne by people like you and me, who are regular citizens, regular immigrants, who came here the right way,” Abraham George, the chairman of the Texas Republican Party — and an immigrant from India — said an interview.

‘A scare tactic’

Torres, the Florida lawmaker, pointed out that most immigrants and their families take on difficult work, contribute to the economy and pay taxes — without getting benefits such as Social Security, Medicaid or Medicare.

“This is a scare tactic by the Republicans on immigrants who are working every day and not asking for any handouts,” Torres said. “They’re working their tail off and just protecting themselves and their families.”

Illegal immigration is a central issue in the presidential campaign, and former President Donald Trump and other Republicans often talk about migrants draining public coffers by using benefits. Generally speaking, immigrants without permanent legal status cannot enroll in federally funded health care coverage under Medicaid, Medicare or CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program), and they can’t purchase plans under the Affordable Care Act. However, hospitals cannot turn them away in an emergency, and six states (California, Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oregon and Washington) plus the District of Columbia use state money to provide coverage to some adults regardless of their immigration status.

In Texas, even some Democrats worry about what hospitals and the state spend to care for immigrants without legal status who don’t have insurance and can’t pay out of pocket.

“These individuals are our fellow neighbors — they should never be denied treatment or demonized by extremists. But this can’t go unfunded in any way,” Texas Democratic state Rep. Eddie Morales told Stateline.

Morales said it’s legitimate for Texas to examine what it is spending on care for immigrants without legal status, and that it should help hospitals pay for uncompensated care. But he blamed Republicans in Washington for torpedoing a bipartisan bill that aimed to address the challenges at the border.

Long-term costs

Pillai, of KFF, said the Florida and Texas efforts might end up increasing those states’ health care costs if people lacking legal status avoid care but have to eventually visit the hospital in a worsened condition.

“This can cause routine situations to become more complex and expensive to treat later on, and it can lead to greater health care costs if an individual ends up presenting to the emergency room,” Pillai said.

In the issue brief, Pillai and her colleagues also note that immigrants without legal status play an outsize role in the Florida and Texas workforces, particularly in fields such as construction, farming and transportation.

That’s why Mike Oldham, president of the Texas Farmers Union, said he doesn’t support Abbott’s executive order. Oldham said that such measures create a climate of fear, such that migrant workers and their families who come to Texas to work “won’t even be seen out in the daytime.”

“We have to have migrant labor. If you want milk and cheese and eggs and all the vegetables, you’ve got to have migrant labor,” Oldham said. “I can’t go pick up any white people that will do those jobs. They just won’t do them.”

Oldham said requiring hospitals to ask more questions on intake forms and hire interpreters to inquire about patients’ immigration status just creates unnecessary burdens for them.

Hospitals in Texas and Florida are too scared to discuss these policies, because they don’t want to be cast under a spotlight, especially if they serve people lacking legal status, said Deliana Garcia, a chief program officer at the Migrant Clinicians Network, a national nonprofit that focuses on health solutions for migrant populations and works with clinicians.

Garcia said the health care system can either support a person when they are relatively healthy, or provide more expensive care later on when their condition is more severe.

Besides, she said, “you don’t want someone who is ill circulating where they might then sicken you.”

Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a national nonprofit news organization focused on state policy.

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Published on October 10, 2024 03:10

Hot days and methamphetamine are now a deadlier mix

By ANITA SNOW and MARY KATHERINE WILDEMAN, Associated Press

PHOENIX (AP) — On just one sweltering day during the hottest June on record in Phoenix, a 38-year-old man collapsed under a freeway bridge and a 41-year-old woman was found slumped outside a business. Both had used methamphetamine before dying from an increasingly dangerous mix of soaring temperatures and stimulants.

Meth is showing up more often as a factor in the deaths of people who died from heat-related causes in the U.S., according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Death certificates show about one in five heat-related deaths in recent years involved methamphetamine. In Arizona, Texas, Nevada and California, officials found the drug in nearly a third of heat deaths in 2023.

Meth is more common in heat-related deaths than the deadly opioid fentanyl. As a stimulant, it increases body temperature, impairs the brain’s ability to regulate body heat and makes it harder for the heart to compensate for extreme heat.

If hot weather has already raised someone’s body temperature, consuming alcohol or opioids can exacerbate the physical effects, “but meth would be the one that you would be most concerned about,” said Bob Anderson, chief of statistical analysis at the National Center for Health Statistics.

The trend has emerged as a synthetic drug manufactured south of the border by Mexican drug cartels has largely replaced the domestic version of meth fictionalized in the TV series “Breaking Bad.” Typically smoked in a glass pipe, a single dose can cost as little as a few dollars.

At the same time, human-caused climate change has made it much easier to die from heat-related causes in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas and California’s southeastern desert. This has been Earth’s hottest summer on record.

Phoenix baked in triple-digit heat for 113 straight days and hit 117 degrees Fahrenheit (47.2 Celsius) in late September — uncharacteristic even for a city synonymous with heat. The triple digits have carried into October — this week, the National Weather Service again warned of excessive heat.

“Putting on a jacket can increase body temperature in a cold room. If it’s hot outside, we can take off the jacket,” explained Rae Matsumoto, dean of the Daniel K. Inouye College of Pharmacy at the University of Hawaii in Hilo. But people using the stimulant in the outdoor heat “can’t take off the meth jacket.”

These fatalities are particularly prevalent in the Southwest, where meth overdoses overall have risen since the mid-2000s.

In Maricopa County, America’s hottest major metropolitan area, substances including street drugs, alcohol and certain prescription medicines for psychiatric conditions and blood pressure control were involved in about two-thirds, or 419 of the 645 heat-related deaths documented last year. Meth was detected in about three-quarters of these drug cases and was often the primary cause of death, public health data show. Fentanyl was found in just under half of them.

In Pima County, home to Tucson, Arizona’s second most populous city, methamphetamine was a factor in one-quarter of the 84 heat-related deaths reported so far this year, the medical examiner’s office said.

A fake watermelon, used to disguised a shipment of methamphetamines, is shown after a bust by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Friday, Aug. 16, 2024, in Otay Mesa, Calif. (U.S. Customs and Border Protection via AP)

In metro Las Vegas, heat was a factor in 294 deaths investigated last year by the Clark County coroner’s office, and 39% involved illicit and prescription drugs and alcohol. Of those, meth was detected in three-fourths.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration notes in its 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment that 31% of all drug-related deaths in the U.S. are now caused by stimulants that speed up the nervous system, primarily meth. More than 17,000 people in the U.S. died from fatal overdoses and poisonings related to stimulants in the first half of 2023, according to preliminary CDC data.

Although overdoses have been more associated with opiates like fentanyl, medical professionals say overdosing on meth is possible if a large amount is ingested. Higher blood pressure and a quickened heart rate can then provoke a heart attack or stroke.

“All of your normal physiological ways of coping with heat are compromised with the use of methamphetamines,” said Dr. Aneesh Narang, an emergency medicine physician at Banner University Medical Center in downtown Phoenix.

Narang, who sits on a board that reviews overdose fatalities, said the “vast majority” of the heat stroke patients seen in his hospital’s emergency department this summer had used street drugs, most commonly methamphetamine.

Because of its proximity to the U.S.-Mexico border, Phoenix is considered a “source city” where large amounts of newly smuggled meth are stored and packaged into relatively tiny doses for distribution, said Det. Matt Shay, a seasoned narcotics investigator with the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office.

“It’s an amazing amount that comes in constantly every day,” Shay said. “It’s also very cheap.”

U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized about 164,000 pounds (about 74,000 kilograms) of meth at the U.S.-Mexico border this last fiscal year ending Sept. 30, up from the 140,000 pounds (about 63,500 kilograms) captured in the previous 12 months.

And sellers often target homeless people, Shay said.

“It’s a customer base that is easy to find and exploit,” Shay said. “If you’re an enterprising young drug dealer, all you need is some type of transportation and you just cruise around and they swarm your car.”

Jason Elliott, a 51-year-old unemployed machinist, said he’s heard of several heat-related deaths involving meth during his three years on the streets in Phoenix.

“It’s pretty typical,” said Elliot, noting that stimulants enable people to stay awake and alert to prevent being robbed in shelters or outdoors. “What else can you do? You have stuff; you go to sleep, you wake up and your stuff is gone.”

Dr. Nick Staab, assistant medical director of the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, said brochures were printed this summer and distributed in cooling centers to spread the word about the risk of using stimulants and certain prescription medicines in extreme heat.

But it’s unclear how many are being reached. People who use drugs may not be welcomed at some cooling centers. A better solution, according to Stacey Cope, capacity building and education director for the harm reduction nonprofit Sonoran Prevention Works, is to lower barriers to entry so that people most at risk “are not expected to be absent from drugs, or they’re not expected to leave during the hottest part of the day.”

Wildeman reported from Hartford, Connecticut.

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Published on October 10, 2024 03:05

Holiday deals are here. Don’t let debt follow

By Lauren Schwahn | NerdWallet

The unofficial start of the holiday shopping season has arrived. Thanks to Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days and other retailers’ “early holiday” sales, shoppers don’t have to wait until Black Friday in November to start deal hunting. But a long shopping season can lead to a lot of spending — and debt.

Nearly 3 in 10 Americans who used credit cards to pay for holiday gifts last year (28%) still haven’t paid off their balances, according to a 2024 Holiday Spending Report from NerdWallet.

Creating a budget, building up your savings and comparing prices are some strategies you can use to avoid spending more than you can afford.

Use earmarked funds

Putting money in a special savings account or envelope just for holiday expenses reduces the risk of going into debt. You’ll have funds ready when it comes time to shop.

“Ideally, people should begin saving for the holidays as early as January,” Los Angeles-based certified financial planner Cynthia Jabr said in an email interview. “If not, then starting now is good, too.”

Holiday spending falls under the “wants” category of the 50/30/20 budget, which allocates 50% of your take-home pay to needs, 30% to wants and 20% to savings and debt repayment.

Setting aside $10, or any amount you choose, each week or day even for a short while can be a huge help.

Make a budget — and a list

Calculate a realistic holiday budget based on your monthly income, shopping fund (if you have one) and how much you expect to spend on other expenses during the holiday shopping period. Then, think about how many people you plan to shop for and set a per-person spending limit.

Make a list of specific gifts to get each person that fall within your limits. Remember to add your name to the list if you think you’ll buy something for yourself.

Keep track of your spending so you know where you stand. If you spend below your budget on one person, you can roll over the remaining money to someone else. For example, say you set a $50 limit for your nephew and find him a great gift that’s only $30. You could add an extra $20 to your budget for Grandma.

Go in on a group gift

If you feel like your budget won’t stretch very far, you might be considering taking on debt to pay for gifts.

According to the report from NerdWallet, 40% of holiday shoppers say they feel pressure to spend more money on holiday gifts than they’re comfortable spending. But splitting the cost with others could be a better solution.

Pooling resources with family or friends can ease the financial burden on everyone and ensure the recipient still gets a gift.

Resist the pressure to buy everything immediately

The fear of missing out on deals can lead to impulse buying. But as retailers begin to launch limited-time deals, remember that there will be more discounts ahead.

The main purpose of early sale campaigns such as Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days is to get people to buy before the competition gets too intense, says Luc Wathieu, a professor of marketing at Georgetown University McDonough School of Business.

“What the companies are trying to do there is to shortcut the search, be there in front of you before you actually are in shopping mode,” he says.

Wathieu expects Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be the “sweet spots” for finding the best deals. Shoppers tend to be more active and price-conscious around this time, and retailers respond by offering competitive discounts.

Spreading purchases throughout the holiday shopping season can make costs more manageable. Pull up your shopping list before checking out sales and limit your search to those items. But if you wait until later in the season to shop, it’s a good idea to have a few backup items in mind.

“There might be more discounts as you get closer to Christmas, but the selection might not be as great as it is earlier in the season,” says Lauren Beitelspacher, a marketing professor at Babson College.

Understand your payment options

Paying with cash or debit is the best for avoiding holiday debt. With these payment methods, you pay in full with money you already have, which protects you from late fees and interest charges.

While credit cards and buy now, pay later plans from companies such as Afterpay and Klarna conveniently break purchases down into smaller payments, they can also make it easy to spend more than you can afford.

“If using something like Afterpay is the best way for you to provide for your family, that’s going to make you feel good about your family, then I think you could do that,” Beitelspacher says. “But still make sure that when the payment comes, that the money is there to make the payment.”

It’s also wise to avoid using several buy now, pay later plans at the same time. Losing track of how much you owe and when payments are due can lead to late fees and damaged credit. If you’re considering paying with a credit card or a buy now, pay later plan, make sure you fully understand the terms before you make the purchase.

Track down the best prices

Getting the items on your list at a discount can help you stay on or under budget. The prevalence of dynamic pricing, especially with online shopping, can make it difficult to know whether you’re seeing the best price. Use technology to point you in the right direction. Apps and browser tools such as Capital One Shopping or ShopSavvy can help you locate coupons and compare prices across retailers.

As you craft your shopping list, knowing which products are more likely to go on sale can also help you save money.

“Try to buy things that others will want,” Wathieu says. “It’s a little bit bizarre to think that way. But if companies predict that the demand will be hot on something, they also feel that other suppliers will fight for it, and so they will try to put their best foot forward.”

Wathieu and Beitelspacher expect some of the best deals in categories such as toys, games, electronics and kitchen items.

Review retailer return policies

Don’t let an attractive price persuade you to buy something you’re on the fence about. Do a little research first. You could be in a tough spot financially if you change your mind about the purchase later.

“The days of free returns and free shipping on returns are not as prevalent anymore,” Beitelspacher says.

She says that while a lot of retailers offered these incentives during the pandemic to stimulate sales and get through their excess inventory, many no longer do.

“If you’re making that rash decision and you’re telling yourself, ‘Oh, I’m just going to return it if I don’t like it,’ just know that you might not be able to get your money back,” Beitelspacher says.

Before you buy something, investigate the retailer’s return policy, and note whether the item is marked as “final sale.”

Start saving up for next year’s purchases

Planning for the current holiday shopping season is key, but thinking long-term is smart, too. Making room in your monthly budget for next year’s holiday expenses now can keep you debt-free.

To figure out how much you should save, Jabr recommends looking at your previous year’s holiday spending, then asking yourself, “Was it too much, or just enough?”

Digging up online order confirmations and reviewing past credit card statements can help you estimate last year’s total.

If you’re comfortable with the amount you spent, and your financial situation hasn’t drastically changed, make that your target. Here’s what that could look like: If your holiday spending totaled $1,000 last year, aim to save about $83 a month for the next 12 months. Future you will be glad you did.

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Lauren Schwahn writes for NerdWallet. Email: lschwahn@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @lauren_schwahn.

The article Holiday Deals Are Here. Don’t Let Debt Follow originally appeared on NerdWallet.

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Published on October 10, 2024 03:00

Horoscopes Oct. 10, 2024: Jodi Lyn O’Keefe, get back to basics

CELEBRITIES BORN ON THIS DAY: Jodi Lyn O’Keefe, 46; Mario Lopez, 51; Wendi McLendon-Covey, 55; Nora Roberts, 74.

Happy Birthday: Put your energy into conquering your dreams, and refuse to let anger deter you from reaching your objective. Opportunity is present; all you must do is harness that energy and apply it where it will pay the highest return. Travel, learn, get back to basics and revive what’s most important to you. Make personal and domestic changes that ease your mind and allow you to do what makes you happy. Your numbers are 3, 10, 17, 24, 36, 39, 45.

ARIES (March 21-April 19): Take care of unfinished business. It’s difficult to move forward when living in the past. Don’t rely on or trust others to do what’s best for you. Opportunity begins by taking the initiative and making things happen. Start with personal growth and a strategy that fits your needs. 2 stars

TAURUS (April 20-May 20): Follow through with your intentions. Stop worrying about what others think or do, and concentrate on accomplishing your goals. Personal improvements will offer a unique perspective regarding possibilities and opportunities. Step up; make your voice heard, and recognize that your actions will make a difference. Romance is in the stars. 5 stars

GEMINI (May 21-June 20): Pay attention to detail. Dedicate more time to gathering information and mapping out your plans. If you rely on others, disappointment will prevail. Make yourself available and see matters through from beginning to end. Keep your personal information, passwords and plans to yourself. Your actions will impact onlookers. 3 stars

CANCER (June 21-July 22): It will be easy to fuel an argument; choose your words wisely. A kind gesture will make life easier and change your perspective regarding rules and regulations. Networking functions will result in a worthwhile connection. Self-improvement will encourage a new look, healthier lifestyle and innovative plans. 3 stars

LEO (July 23-Aug. 22): Use your wit, charm and intellect to get what you want. Keep your opinions and plans to yourself until those you deal with reveal their true colors and beliefs. Protect your home, possessions and meaningful relationships from outside interference. Align yourself with those offering equal opportunities. 3 stars

VIRGO (Aug. 23-Sept. 22): Participate in events that offer guidance and encouragement. The information you gather will impact your perspective and help devise a strategy for your lifestyle and prospects. Personal gains and partnerships will unfold if you follow your heart and lend a helping hand. Romance is in the stars. 5 stars

LIBRA (Sept. 23-Oct. 22): Take pride in your work. Pay attention to detail and channel your energy into getting positive results. Look for opportunities and shun negativity and procrastination. Set the stage for success and surpass your expectations. Eliminate what no longer works and replace it with good vibes, people and prospects. 2 stars

SCORPIO (Oct. 23-Nov. 21): Spread your wings and fly. Make a choice to engage in talks that offer a unique perspective regarding lifestyles and ways to use your skills, experience and knowledge. Refuse to act on secondhand information. A thorough investigation before making a change will save you time and money. 4 stars

SAGITTARIUS (Nov. 22-Dec. 21): Address financial matters before penalties apply. Review investments and shared expenses and consider how to lower your overhead to make your dollar stretch. Use your connections to gather information to help you implement a healthier lifestyle. A discussion will turn into a proposal. Invest time, not cash. 3 stars

CAPRICORN (Dec. 22-Jan. 19): Give yourself a chance to digest information before you respond. Look at every angle and consider the pros and cons. A change may be tempting, but before you follow someone else’s lead, determine if it’s right for you. A lifestyle change will encourage better health and relationships. 3 stars

AQUARIUS (Jan. 20-Feb. 18): Opportunities are within reach. Verify information, rules and regulations, and set boundaries to ensure you live and invest within your means. Participating in functions that offer insight into bettering your health and investments will point you in the right direction. Don’t take a risk with your health. 3 stars

PISCES (Feb. 19-March 20): Get physical; engage in activities that make you feel good about yourself and your appearance. Additional confidence will help you attract people who have something to offer. Love is on the rise, and participating in events that lift your spirits will set the stage for an interesting encounter. 4 stars

Birthday Baby: You are outgoing, helpful and opportunistic. You are conscientious and kind.

1 star: Avoid conflicts; work behind the scenes. 2 stars: You can accomplish, but don’t rely on others. 3 stars: Focus and you’ll reach your goals. 4 stars: Aim high; start new projects. 5 stars: Nothing can stop you; go for gold.

Visit Eugenialast.com, or join Eugenia on Twitter/Facebook/LinkedIn.

Want a link to your daily horoscope delivered directly to your inbox each weekday morning? Sign up for our free Coffee Break newsletter at mercurynews.com/newsletters or eastbaytimes.com/newsletters.

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Published on October 10, 2024 03:00

Yes, voter fraud happens. But it’s rare and election offices have safeguards to catch it

By ALI SWENSON

NEW YORK (AP) — You’ve heard the horror stories: Someone casting multiple ballots, people voting in the name of dead relatives, mail-in ballots being intercepted.

Voter fraud does happen occasionally. When it does, we tend to hear a lot about it. It also gets caught and prosecuted.

The nation’s multilayered election processes provide many safeguards that keep voter fraud generally detectable and rare, according to current and former election administrators of both parties.

America’s elections are decentralized, with thousands of independent voting jurisdictions. That makes it virtually impossible to pull off a large-scale vote-rigging operation that could tip a presidential race — or most any other race.

“You’re probably not going to have a perfect election system,” said Republican Trey Grayson, a former Kentucky secretary of state and the advisory board chair of the Secure Elections Project. “But if you’re looking for one that you should have confidence in, you should feel good about that here in America.”

What’s stopping people from committing voter fraud?

Voting more than once, tampering with ballots, lying about your residence to vote somewhere else or casting someone else’s ballot are crimes that can be punished with hefty fines and prison time. Non-U.S. citizens who break election laws can be deported.

For anyone still motivated to cheat, election systems in the United States are designed with multiple layers of protection and transparency intended to stand in the way.

For in-person voting, most states either require or request voters provide some sort of ID at the polls. Others require voters to verify who they are in another way, such as stating their name and address, signing a poll book or signing an affidavit.

People who try to vote in the name of a recently deceased friend or family member can be caught when election officials update voter lists with death records and obituaries, said Gail Pellerin, a Democratic in the California Assembly who ran elections in Santa Cruz County for more than 27 years.

Those who try to impersonate someone else run the risk that someone at the polls knows that person or that the person will later try to cast their own ballot, she said.

What protections exist for absentee voting?

For absentee voting, different states have different ballot verification protocols. All states require a voter’s signature. Many states have further precautions, such as having bipartisan teams compare the signature with other signatures on file, requiring the signature to be notarized or requiring a witness to sign.

That means even if a ballot is erroneously sent to someone’s past address and the current resident mails it in, there are checks to alert election workers to the foul play.

A growing number of states offer online or text-based ballot tracking tools as an extra layer of protection, allowing voters to see when their ballot has been sent out, returned and counted.

Federal law requires voter list maintenance, and election officials do that through a variety of methods, from checking state and federal databases to collaborating with other states to track voters who have moved.

Ballot drop boxes have security protocols, too, said Tammy Patrick, chief executive officer for programs at the National Association of Election Officials.

She explained the boxes are often designed to stop hands from stealing ballots and are surveilled by camera, bolted to the ground and constructed with fire-retardant chambers, so if someone threw in a lit match, it wouldn’t destroy the ballots inside.

Sometimes, alleged voter fraud isn’t what it seems

After the 2020 election, social media surged with claims of dead people casting ballots, double voting or destroyed piles of ballots on the side of the road.

Former President Donald Trump promoted and has continued to amplify these claims. But the vast majority of them were found to be untrue.

An Associated Press investigation that explored every potential case of voter fraud in the six battleground states disputed by Trump found there were fewer than 475 out of millions of votes cast. That was not nearly enough to tip the outcome. Democrat Joe Biden won the six states by a combined 311,257 votes.

The review also showed no collusion intended to rig the voting. Virtually every case was based on an individual acting alone to cast additional ballots. In one case, a man mistakenly thought he could vote while on parole. In another, a woman was suspected of sending in a ballot for her dead mother.

Former election officials say that even more often, allegations of voter fraud turn out to result from a clerical error or a misunderstanding.

Pellerin said she remembered when a political candidate in her county raised suspicion about many people being registered to vote at the same address. It turned out the voters were nuns who all lived in the same home.

Patrick said that when she worked in elections in Maricopa County, Arizona, mismatched signatures were sometimes explained by a broken arm or a recent stroke. In other cases, an elderly person tried to vote twice because they forgot they had already submitted a mail ballot.

“You really have to think about the intent of the voter,” Patrick said. “It isn’t always intuitive.”

Why voter fraud is unlikely to affect the presidential race

It would be wrong to suggest that voter fraud never happens.

Related ArticlesNational Politics | Ranked choice voting could decide which party controls the US House. How does it work? National Politics | Not all elections look the same. Here are some of the different ways states run their voting National Politics | Don’t count on a recount to change the winner in close elections this fall. They rarely do National Politics | Trump-Putin ties are back in the spotlight after new book describes calls National Politics | Sanewashing? The banality of crazy? A decade into the Trump era, media hasn’t figured him out With millions of votes cast in an election year, it’s almost guaranteed there will be a few cases of someone trying to game the system. There also have been more insidious efforts, such as a vote-buying scheme in 2006 in Kentucky.

In that case, Grayson said, voters complained and an investigation ensued. Then participants admitted what they had done.

He said the example shows how important it is for election officials to stay vigilant and constantly improve security in order to help voters feel confident.

But, he said, it would be hard to make any such scheme work on a larger scale. Fraudsters would have to navigate onerous nuances in each county’s election system. They also would have to keep a large number of people quiet about a crime that could be caught at any moment by officials or observers.

“This decentralized nature of the elections is itself a deterrent,” Grayson said.

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Published on October 10, 2024 01:10

October 9, 2024

Florida has nearly all ballots counted on Election Day, while California can take weeks. This is why

By MAYA SWEEDLER

WASHINGTON (AP) — In the 2020 presidential election, Florida reported the results within a few hours of poll close of more than 99% of ballots cast.

In California, almost one-third of ballots were uncounted after election night. The state was making almost daily updates to its count through Dec. 3, a full month after Election Day.

This wasn’t unusual or unexpected.

California, the nation’s most populous state, is consistently among the slowest to report all its election results. Florida, the third-most populous state, is generally among the first to finish.

The Constitution sets out broad principles for electing a national government and leaves the details to the states. The choices made by state lawmakers and election officials as they sort out those details affect everything from how voters cast a ballot, how quickly the tabulation and release of results takes place, how elections are kept secure and how officials maintain voters’ confidence in the process.

The gap between when California and Florida are able to finalize their count is the natural result of election officials in the two states choosing to emphasize different concerns and set different priorities.

How California counts

FILE – Workers check on signed signatures on mail-in ballots at the new Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center in the City of Industry, Calif., Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)

FILE – Workers count votes on election night at the Los Angeles County Registrar’s Tally Operations Center in Downey, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020. (Keith Birmingham/The Orange County Register via AP, File)

FILE – A worker prepares to take bags of ballots to be sorted and processed by the Los Angeles County Registrar at the temporary building at the Pomona Fairplex in Pomona, Calif., Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020. (Keith Birmingham/The Orange County Register via AP)

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Lawmakers in California designed their elections to improve accessibility and increase turnout. Whether it’s automatically receiving a ballot at home, having up until Election Day to turn it in or having several days to address any problems that may arise with their ballot, Californians have a lot of time and opportunity to vote. It comes at the expense of knowing the final vote counts soon after polls close.

“Our priority is trying to maximize participation of actively registered voters,” said Democratic Assemblymember Marc Berman, who authored the 2021 bill that permanently switched the state to all-mail elections. “What that means is things are a little slower. But in a society that wants immediate gratification, I think our democracy is worth taking a little time to get it right and to create a system where everyone can participate.”

California, which has long had a culture of voting absentee, started moving toward all-mail elections last decade. All-mail systems will almost always prolong the count. Mail ballots require additional verification steps — each must be opened individually, validated and processed — so they can take longer to tabulate than ballots cast in person that are then fed into a scanner at a neighborhood polling place.

In 2016, California passed a bill allowing counties to opt in to all-mail elections before instituting it statewide on a temporary basis in 2020 and enshrining it in law in time for the 2022 elections.

Studies found that the earliest states to institute all-mail elections – Oregon and Washington – saw higher turnout. Mail ballots also increase the likelihood of a voter casting a complete ballot, according to Melissa Michelson, a political scientist and dean at California’s Menlo College who has written on voter mobilization.

In recent years, the thousands of California voters who drop off their mail ballots on Election Day created a bottleneck on election night. In the past five general elections, California has tabulated an average of 38% of its vote after Election Day. Two years ago, in the 2022 midterm elections, half the state’s votes were counted after Election Day.

Slower counts have come alongside later mail ballot deadlines. In 2015, California implemented its first postmark deadline, meaning that the state can count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day as long as the Postal Service receives the ballot by Election Day. Berman said the postmark deadline allows the state to treat the mailbox as a drop box in order to avoid punishing voters who cast their ballots properly but are affected by postal delays.

Initially, the law said ballots that arrived within three days of the election would be considered cast in time. This year, ballots may arrive up to a week after Election Day, so California won’t know how many ballots have been cast until Nov. 12. This deadline means that California will be counting ballots at least through that week because ballots arriving up to that point might still be valid and be added to the count.

How Florida counts

FILE – An employee at the Broward Supervisor of Elections Office conducts logic and accuracy testing of equipment used for counting ballots, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020, in Lauderhill, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)

FILE – A worker processes mail-in ballots for the state’s primary elections at the Orange County Supervisor of Elections office in Orlando, Fla., March 17, 2020. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP, File)

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Florida’s election system is geared toward quick and efficient tabulation. Coming out of its disastrous 2000 presidential election, when the U.S. Supreme Court settled a recount dispute and George W. Bush was declared the winner in the state over Al Gore, the state moved to standardize its election systems and clean up its canvass, or the process of confirming votes cast and counted.

Republican Rep. Bill Posey, who as state senator was the sponsor of the Florida Election Reform Act of 2001, said the two goals of the law — to count all legal votes and to ensure voters are confident their votes are counted — were accomplished by mandating optical ballot scanners in every precinct. That “most significant” change means no more “hanging chads” in Florida. The scanners read and aggregate results from paper ballots, immediately spitting back any that contain mistakes.

Florida’s deadlines are set to avoid having ballots arrive any later than when officials press “go” on the tabulator machines. The state has a receipt deadline for its absentee ballots, which means ballots that do not arrive by 7 p.m. local time on Election Day are not counted, regardless of when they were mailed.

Michael T. Morley, a professor of election law at Florida State University College of Law, pointed out that Florida election officials may begin processing ballots, but not actually count them, before polls close. That helps speed up the process, especially compared with states that don’t allow officials to process mail ballots before Election Day.

“They can determine the validity of ballots, confirm they should be counted and run them through machines,” Morley said. “They just can’t press the tally button.”

Florida takes steps to avoid a protracted back-and-forth on potentially problematic ballots. At the precinct, optical scanners catch some problems, such as a voter selecting too many candidates, that can be fixed on-site. Also, any voter who’s returned a mail ballot with a mismatched or missing signature has until 5 p.m. two days after the election to submit an affidavit fixing it. California gives voters up to four weeks after the election to address such inconsistencies.

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Published on October 09, 2024 03:20

On a screen near you: Officials are livestreaming the election process for more transparency

By MIKE CATALINI

Rows of folding tables and empty chairs appear on Ballot Processing View 2. Over on Tabulation View 2, a man in a black T-shirt and shorts is seen shuffling papers near a waist-high machine.

The livestream scenes from Maricopa County, Arizona, of the 2024 election process may not be the most riveting video. But the feeds, already online, and other live videos like it streaming from election sites across the country have a serious aim. They are an effort by election officials to demystify voting and provide greater transparency to a process that in recent years has been subject to intense scrutiny, misinformation and false claims of widespread fraud.

The increase in livestreaming the election process, an operation conducted by local governments nationwide, reflects a broader rise in video streams online, according to Wendy Underhill, election and redistricting director at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

There is a concern, however, among officials that people unfamiliar with what’s happening in a livestream could misunderstand what they’re watching and reach misleading conclusions.

Here is a closer look at who is streaming elections and what you might see if you tune in.

Which states livestream elections?

National elections are run at the local level. There’s not a uniform standard or rule requiring live video feeds, but several jurisdictions, including large ones and those in battleground states, run livestreams. Among them are Philadelphia, Los Angeles County and Washington’s King County.

Arizona is an outlier because it has a state law requiring its counties to livestream the elections process, Underhill said.

If you want to understand more about whether your local government is providing a livestream, get involved by contacting them, said Tammy Patrick, chief program officer for the National Association of Elections Officials and a former Maricopa County elections official.

What can I expect if I watch?

That will vary by location. For example, Arizona offers various views of different parts of the process, from ballot drop boxes to tabulation rooms.

Other places, like Philadelphia, haven’t begun streaming yet. The city is set to begin streaming on Election Day, Nov. 5., at 7 a.m. EST.

One thing the streams will likely have in common is that the election processes they show can be slow-moving — the kind of methodical material that few would consider must-see TV.

People should be patient as officials deal with an array of circumstances, including having to drive ballots from polling places to processing centers, said Jennifer Morrell, CEO and co-founder of The Elections Group. It’s made up of former state and local election officials who offer training and other support to officials across the country.

In part because of technology, people are used to many things happening almost automatically, she said, but there are just the “logistical realities” that could make the process take longer. She warned against viewers making assumptions based on something they see on a livestream or a single moment in the vote-counting process, noting that leads can shift and a candidate who may be winning at one point in the count could be losing hours later.

That isn’t an indication of fraud. “I would just really emphasize that people have to be patient,” she said.

How do I know what I’m seeing?

That’s perhaps the biggest question and a potential hurdle to transparency, Patrick said.

Officials have learned since 2020, when livestreaming grew in popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic, that voters might not know or understand what they’re watching on a screen, she said.

“The more transparent we can be, the better off it is,” Patrick said. “When you are transparent, it does not mean that individuals will necessarily know what they’re seeing or understand what they’re seeing.”

It could provide fodder for someone to take something out of context. In part to address that, some places have begun adding signs to explain what elections workers are doing, so viewers have a better idea of what’s happening on screen, Patrick said.

A solution, Patrick suggested, is to get involved: Contact local and state officials, sign up for tours, ask to be a poll worker.

“There are plenty of roles where you can educate yourself on all the safeguards that are in place to protect the system, to make sure that it’s eligible voters that are participating,” she said. “And that’s, quite frankly, I think the best way to get involved. But you have to be willing to accept the facts and the truth.”

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Published on October 09, 2024 03:15

Want to follow election results like a pro? Here’s what to watch in key states

By LEAH ASKARINAM

WASHINGTON (AP) — Election night in the United States is a bit like a jigsaw puzzle, except that only one piece appears at a time, and you don’t get to look at the picture on the box.

As thousands of counties and towns report vote totals, it can be hard to figure out when the results reported so far will reflect the outcome.

The first report of the night might show a massive lead for one candidate, but why does that lead dwindle in some races and grow in others? Why does a single vote update from a big city sometimes confirm the winner when there’s still a substantial number of votes left to count? What’s the difference between a “mirage” and a real outcome?

Past elections can provide a guide.

FILE – Alan Zumel, an employee at The Abbey Food & Bar, watches presidential election coverage on a television above the bar, Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020, in West Hollywood, Calif. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello, File)

They show that mail-in votes in recent elections have leaned heavily toward Democrats and that in some states, counties report those ballots first. That can create a “blue mirage” in races that end up being only narrow victories for Democrats or even substantial victories for Republicans. They show that Republicans can lose big cities overwhelmingly and still win the election.

Even so, sometimes the usual rules and patterns get thrown out the window, either because of unexpected changes to the state’s administration process or major swings in voter behavior.

Some recent examples in key states can help provide some idea of what to expect between the time that polls close in Florida early in the evening all the way through Arizona, where polls close at 10 p.m. EST.

Florida

The first clues of how election night is going usually come from Florida. Results start coming in at 7 p.m. EST even though the final polls don’t close in the state until 8 p.m. EST.

Not every state makes clear when it releases vote updates whether the reports include mail-in ballots, early in-person or Election Day ballots. But when states do provide that information, or enough clues are available to figure it out on our own, it’s hugely helpful in figuring out why the vote count looks like it does at that moment.

Florida law requires each county to report its early and absentee ballots first. That includes mail-in ballots, which lean heavily Democratic.

Over the past two election cycles, Democrats have tended to vote by mail more than Republicans. That means the first results reported often look stronger for Democratic candidates than the eventual outcome. Then, as the votes cast on Election Day trickle in, Republicans start seeing much more favorable results.

Take the 2022 Senate race, when Republican Sen. Marco Rubio faced a challenge from Democrat Val Demings.

Demings won an early update in Broward County, giving her a lead of nearly 30 percentage points at the beginning of the night. But she lost an update two minutes later in Miami-Dade County, a particularly concerning sign for Democrats because these early updates should be the votes that are most favorable to them. In the end, Demings lost her lead as more Election Day votes and more votes from Republican-leaning areas were counted. Rubio won reelection, 58% to 41%.

Virginia

While the first votes of the night should favor Democrats in Florida, the order of events in Virginia tends to vary depending on what each county decides to do.

There are no strict rules dictating how counties should release results. But in past elections, early returns favored Republicans until the big cities and large northern Virginia suburbs reported their results, which took hours.

In Virginia and in most other states, Republican voters are more spread out geographically than Democratic voters, who are concentrated in major population hubs. So throughout the night, while the major Democratic-leaning counties were still counting votes, smaller counties, which tend to lean Republican, had already started reporting their votes.

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump led Democrat Joe Biden for five hours after polls closed on election night before heavily Democratic Fairfax County reported a nearly 400,000-vote update about 12:30 a.m. EST. Biden won Virginia that year by a margin of 10 percentage points.

Georgia

Georgia allows counties to begin counting absentee ballots on Election Day. By the time polls close, some counties already have major batches of votes ready to report.

Those first reports are often disproportionately favorable to Democrats. Then, prepare to wait for a while. After the first reports, it may be hours before the rest of the state starts sending in results as they continue to count votes, meaning that blue mirage could stick around for quite a while.

In 2022, the Senate election went to a runoff, because neither candidate received 50%. Democrat Raphael Warnock did end up with a single percentage point lead by the time votes were certified in the general election.

This fall, the State Election Board approved a new rule that requires poll workers to hand count the number of ballots cast — not the actual votes — after voting is complete. Critics, including GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, worried the rule would delay the reporting of election results.

Ohio

FILE – A bowl of voting stickers for early voters is shown March 15, 2020, in Steubenville, Ohio. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)

In the 2022 Ohio Senate race, Rep. Tim Ryan started out with an early lead when Franklin County, home to the state capital of Columbus, reported its first batch of ballots of the night, which went 74% to 26% for Ryan over Republican JD Vance, now Trump’s running mate. That was the high point for Ryan. In the end, he carried Franklin with slightly less of the vote — about two-thirds — and lost the race statewide.

So why was his lead so much bigger early in the night?

Again, it’s all about mail-in ballots. Ohio releases its pre-Election Day votes first thing on election night, including mail-in votes. Like in other races since 2022, mail-in votes tended to lean toward Democrats. As Election Day votes trickled in, Republican JD Vance took the lead and eventually won by 6 points.

North Carolina

In the 2022 Senate race, about a half hour after polls closed in North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley had a lead of nearly 200,000 votes. By midnight, Republican Ted Budd had a lead of over 150,000 votes.

North Carolina counts nearly all its ballots on election night. The first reports of the night in most North Carolina counties will be the results of mail ballots, followed by early in-person votes. Later updates will include results from ballots cast on Election Day. North Carolina has a history of counting its Election Day vote pretty quickly, so if a blue mirage does arise from those first reports, it might not last very long.

It’s unclear how vote counting may be affected by emergency changes put in place in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which ravaged western parts of the state. Among other changes, the North Carolina State Board of Elections said voters in 13 counties affected by Helene may drop off their ballots at voting sites on Election Day in addition to county elections offices. The ballots still must be turned in by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day in order to count.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania followed the same pattern as Georgia and Ohio in 2022.

Initial vote updates, which included a big chunk of mail-in ballots, gave Democrat John Fetterman a lopsided advantage before votes from Republicans began to narrow the gap in the Senate race. The state had reported even before poll closing that more than 7 in 10 mail ballots returned before Election Day came from registered Democrats.

Republican Mehmet Oz began to catch up as more of the rural and Election Day votes were tabulated. But those votes weren’t enough to overcome Fetterman’s lead.

When the AP called Fetterman the winner, he led by 2 percentage points. The AP estimated there were more than 800,000 votes left to be counted, but most of them were in counties where Fetterman was winning by large margins: Philadelphia and the surrounding counties of Delaware, Bucks and Montgomery. But the way Pennsylvania counts its votes could lead to a blue mirage, a red mirage, or both — at different times in the evening. Pennsylvania doesn’t require counties to report their mail-in votes first, and they aren’t allowed to start processing those votes until Election Day.

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden took a massive lead as pre-Election Day votes were counted, then Trump took a huge lead as Election Day votes were counted, and then Biden eventually regained his narrow margin as more mail votes were counted.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, municipalities report their vote totals to counties, and each city can choose how to report its results. Most combine mail-in ballots with Election Day votes, but some, including Milwaukee, release them separately. That dilutes the chances of a mirage but also adds an element of unpredictability.

The city of Milwaukee reports Election Day votes before mail-in votes. That can make it difficult to know how many votes remain to be counted there until election officials give specific information about how many mail ballots remain or confirm that they have been counted already.

In Wisconsin, information about the last votes to come from Milwaukee, which typically reports into wee hours of Wednesday morning, is often necessary to determine the winner in close races.

Michigan

FILE – Wendy Gill inserts her absentee ballot at a drop-off box as the sun sets on Election Day outside City Hall in Warren, Mich., Nov. 3, 2020. (AP Photo/David Goldman, File)

As in Wisconsin, there’s no universal pattern in Michigan for when counties report their mail ballots. That often makes geography a better indicator of the direction of a race than vote type.

The key to a close race in Michigan is to wait for Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw counties to release significant batches of votes before jumping to any conclusions. Wayne includes Detroit, while Oakland is made up of the city’s northern suburbs. Washtenaw County is home to Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan.

Michigan doesn’t permit absentee ballots to be counted until the morning of Election Day and warns on its elections website that high numbers of absentee ballots usually prolongs the counting process by hours if not days.

Arizona

FILE – Voters wait in line to vote at their polling station early, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York, File)

Arizona won’t report votes until an hour after polls close, due to the state law. But that means when that first update comes in, it’s pretty big. Historically, about half of the state’s total votes are reported in the first update.

That update, like in many other states, has tended to lean heavily Democratic in recent elections because it includes mail ballots cast well before Election Day. That gap usually narrows as Election Day votes are counted. But after that, things take a more complicated turn in Arizona than in other states.

Ballots counted after Election Day include “late earlies” — the last-arriving mail ballots that include those dropped off on Election Day. Those ballots heavily favored Trump in 2020.

But in the 2022 Senate race, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly took the lead in the first update, when Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county and home to Phoenix, released 837,000 ballots in its first report. He maintained that initial lead, even though it narrowed, when Election Day votes were reported. Votes counted after election night failed to eat into his advantage.

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Published on October 09, 2024 03:10

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