Jeremy T. Ringfield's Blog, page 305

Puerto Rico holds general election that promises to be historic

By DÁNICA COTO, Associated Press

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Puerto Rico is holding elections that will be historic regardless of which of the top two gubernatorial candidates wins.

If Jenniffer González of the pro-statehood New Progressive Party wins Tuesday’s election, it will mark the first time in the island’s history that the party secures three consecutive terms.

If Juan Dalmau, who is running for Puerto Rico’s Independence Party and Citizen Victory Movement, wins, it will be the first win for a candidate not representing either of the two main parties that have dominated the island’s politics for decades.

A billboard promoting Puerto Rico’s Independence Party and the Citizen Victory Movement gubernatorial candidate Juan Dalmau towers over a highway, in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024.(AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)

Trailing González and Dalmau in polls is Jesús Manuel Ortiz of the Popular Democratic Party, which supports the island’s territorial status. Also running is Javier Jiménez of Project Dignity, a conservative party created in 2019.

For decades, the New Progressive Party and the Popular Democratic Party would receive at least 90% of all votes, but that began to change in 2016, with newer parties attracting more voters amid economic and political turmoil.

A campaign poster promotes New Progressive Party gubernatorial candidate and Puerto Rico’s representative in Congress Jenniffer González, above a campaign poster of resident commissioner candidate Luis Villafañe, defaced with the Spanish words for corrupt and rogue, in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Alejandro Granadillo)

“That has been a very big change,” said Jorge Schmidt Nieto, a political analyst and university professor.

Delayed results

Results are not expected late Tuesday, with analysts warning it might be a couple of days before that happens. During the 2020 elections, it took officials four days to release preliminary results.

Puerto Rico’s State Elections Commission is still counting more than 220,000 early and absentee votes it received, with officials from various political parties noting the process is slow-going. The counting of those votes began more than two weeks later than usual.

Jessika Padilla, the commission’s alternate president, said in a press conference that some 40% of those votes had been counted as of Monday.

“This validation process is one that we are not going to take lightly,” she said.

More than 5,000 inmates out of some 7,400 total in Puerto Rico also have voted, although it’s unclear how many of those votes have been counted.

The commission and other officials also are still receiving allegations about electoral crimes, including from people who said they received confirmations for early voting when they made no such request.

Meanwhile, energy generators have been dispatched to more than two dozen polling stations to guarantee electricity given the chronic power outages that have plagued Puerto Rico in recent years.

A status question and a symbolic vote

On Tuesday, voters also will be asked for a seventh time about Puerto Rico’s political status. The nonbinding referendum offers three options: statehood, independence and independence with free association, under which issues like foreign affairs, U.S. citizenship and use of the U.S. dollar would be negotiated.

Regardless of the outcome, a change in status requires approval from the U.S. Congress.

In addition, Puerto Ricans on Tuesday can support Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in a symbolic vote if they wish. While Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens, those on the island are not allowed to vote in U.S. presidential elections.

Nearly 2 million voters are eligible to participate in Tuesday’s election, although it remains to be seen how many people will do so. Voter apathy has dominated recent elections.

Abortion is on the ballot in nine states and motivating voters across the US

By Geoff Mulvihill and Christine Fernando, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in nine states are deciding whether their state constitutions should guarantee a right to abortion, weighing ballot measures that are expected to spur turnout for a range of crucial races.

Passing certain amendments in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota likely would lead to undoing bans or restrictions that currently block varying levels of abortion access to more than 7 million women of childbearing age who live in those states.

The future legality and availability of abortion hinges not only on ballot measures, as policies could shift depending on who controls Congress and the presidency. Same with state governments — including legislatures that pursue new laws, state supreme courts that determine the laws’ constitutionality, attorneys general who decide whether to defend them and district attorneys who enforce them.

If all the abortion rights measures pass, “it’s a sign of how much of a juggernaut support for reproductive rights has become,” said Mary Ziegler, a professor at the University of California Davis School of Law and an expert on the history of reproductive rights in the U.S.

“If some of them fail,” she added, “then you’re going to see some conservatives looking for guidance to see what the magic ingredient was that made it possible for conservatives to stem the tide.”

Voters have been supporting abortion rights

Abortion rights advocates have prevailed on all seven measures that have appeared since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the nationwide right to abortion. That decision opened the door to bans or restrictions in most GOP-controlled states — and protections of access in most of those controlled by Democrats.

The abortion rights campaigns have a big fundraising advantage this year. Their opponents’ efforts are focused on portraying the amendments as too extreme rather than abortion as immoral.

FILE – Members of the gallery watch the vote count on the board, Wednesday, May 1, 2024, at the Capitol in Phoenix, as Democrats secured enough votes in the Arizona Senate to repeal a Civil War-era ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Matt York, File)

FILE – An anti-abortion supporter sits behind a sign that advises the Jackson Women’s Health Organization clinic is still open in Jackson, Miss., Wednesday, July 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)

FILE – Protesters join thousands marching around the Arizona Capitol in Phoenix, protesting the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, June 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

FILE – The shadow of Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., is cast on a backdrop as she speaks at an event kicking off a national “Reproductive Freedom Bus Tour” by the campaign of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and running mate Gov. Tim Walz, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024, in Boynton Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

FILE – A supporter of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, left, argues about abortion rights with supporters of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, protesting alongside an event kicking off a national “Reproductive Freedom Bus Tour” by the Harris-Walz campaign, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024, in Boynton Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell,File)

FILE – Lilo Blank, 23, of Philadelphia, left, who supports abortion rights, and Lisa Verdonik, of Arlington, Va., who is anti-abortion, talk about their opposing views on abortion rights, Friday, May 13, 2022, outside the Supreme Court in Washington, ahead of expected abortion rights rallies across the country on Saturday. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

FILE – Anti-abortion activist Caleb Buck, left, argues with abortion-rights activist Nadine Seiler outside the Supreme Court, Tuesday, March 26, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades, File)

FILE – Predominantly anti-abortion supporters stand in the Arizona House gallery during the vote on the proposed repeal of Arizona’s near-total ban on abortions prior to winning approval from the state House Wednesday, April 24, 2024, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

FILE – Stephen Parlato of Boulder, Colo., holds a sign that reads “Hands Off Roe!!!” as abortion rights advocates and anti-abortion protesters demonstrate in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

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FILE – Members of the gallery watch the vote count on the board, Wednesday, May 1, 2024, at the Capitol in Phoenix, as Democrats secured enough votes in the Arizona Senate to repeal a Civil War-era ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Matt York, File)

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Currently, 13 states are enforcing bans at all stages of pregnancy, with some exceptions. Four more bar abortion in most cases after about six weeks of pregnancy — before women often realize they’re pregnant. Despite the bans, the number of monthly abortions in the U.S. has risen slightly, because of the growing use of abortion pills and organized efforts to help women travel for abortion. Still, advocates say the bans have reduced access, especially for lower-income and minority residents of the states with bans.

The bans also are part of a key argument in the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris calls them “Trump abortion bans,” noting former President Donald Trump’s role in overturning Roe v. Wade. Harris, meanwhile, has portrayed herself as a direct, consistent advocate for reproductive health and rights, including Black maternal health.

Trump has struggled to thread a divide between his own base of anti-abortion supporters and the majority of Americans who support abortion rights, leaning on his catch-all response that abortion rights should be left up to individual states.

His shifting stances on reproductive rights include vowing in October to veto a national abortion ban, just weeks after the presidential debate when he repeatedly declined to say. Trump also has regularly taken credit for appointing three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade.

Trump’s attempt to find a more cautious stance on abortion echoes the efforts of many Republican congressional candidates as the issue has emerged as a major vulnerability for the GOP. In competitive congressional races from coast to coast, Republicans distanced themselves from more aggressive anti-abortion policies coming from their party and its allies, despite their records on the issue and previous statements opposing abortion rights.

The measures could roll back bans in five states

While the ballot questions have similar aims, each one occupies its own political circumstances.

There’s an added obstacle to passing protections in reliably Republican Florida: Supporters of the amendment must get at least 60% of the vote.

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Passing it there and rolling back a 6-week ban that took effect in May would be a blow to Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican with a national profile, who has steered state GOP funds to the cause and whose administration has weighed in, too, with a campaign against the measure, investigators questioning people who signed petitions to add it to the ballot and threats to TV stations that aired one commercial supporting it.

Nebraska has competing ballot measures. One would allow abortion further into pregnancy. The other would enshrine in the constitution the state’s current law, which bars most abortions after 12 weeks — but would allow for further restrictions.

In South Dakota, the measure would allow some regulations related to the health of the woman after 12 weeks. Because of that wrinkle, most national abortion-rights groups are not supporting it.

In some states, notably Missouri, passing amendments may not expand access immediately. Courts would be asked to invalidate the bans; and there could be legal battles over that. Clinics would need to staff up and get licenses. And some restrictions could remain in effect.

Arizona, a battleground in the presidential election, bans abortion after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy.

The ballot measure there gained momentum after a state Supreme Court ruling in April found that the state could enforce a strict abortion ban adopted in 1864. Some GOP lawmakers joined with Democrats to repeal the law before it could be enforced.

The measures would enshrine current access laws elsewhere

In the Democratic-controlled Colorado and Maryland, the ballot measures would largely put existing policies into the state constitutions, though Colorado’s version could also remove financial barriers to abortion. It would take 55% of the vote to pass there.

Measures maintaining access also are on the ballot in Montana, where a U.S. Senate race could help determine control of the chamber, and Nevada, a battleground in the presidential election.

In Nevada, where control of the state government is divided, the ballot measure would have to be passed this year and again in 2026 to take effect.

New York also has a measure on the ballot that its supporters say would bolster abortion rights. It doesn’t contain the word “abortion” but rather bans discrimination on the basis of “pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.”

The final day of voting in the US is here, after tens of millions have already cast their ballots

By CHRISTINA A. CASSIDY and ALI SWENSON, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Election Day 2024 arrived Tuesday — with tens of millions of Americans having already cast their ballots. Those include record numbers in Georgia, North Carolina and other battleground states that could decide the winner.

The early turnout in Georgia, which has flipped between the Republican and Democratic nominees in the previous two presidential elections, has been so robust — over 4 million voters — that a top official in the secretary of state’s office said the big day could look like a “ghost town” at the polls.

As of Monday, Associated Press tracking of advance voting nationwide showed roughly 82 million ballots already cast — slightly more than half the total number of votes in the presidential election four years earlier. That’s driven partly by Republican voters, who were casting early ballots at a higher rate than in recent previous elections after a campaign by former President Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee to counter the Democrats’ longstanding advantage in the early vote.

Despite long lines in some places and a few hiccups that are common to all elections, early in-person and mail voting proceeded without any major problems.

That included in the parts of western North Carolina hammered last month by Hurricane Helene. State and local election officials, benefiting from changes made by the Republican-controlled legislature, pulled off a herculean effort to ensure residents could cast their ballots as they dealt with power outages, lack of water and washed out roads.

By the time early voting in North Carolina had ended on Saturday, over 4.4 million voters — or nearly 57% of all registered voters in the state — had cast their ballots. As of Monday, turnout in the 25 western counties affected by the hurricane was even stronger at 59% of registered voters, state election board Executive Director Karen Brinson Bell said.

Brinson Bell called the voters and election workers in the hurricane-hit counties “an inspiration to us all.”

A voter fills out their their ballot during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, in Fall River, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

A person walks past a sign during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, in Fall River, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

People wait in line to cast their ballots at an early voting location, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, in Blue Springs, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

FILE – A Delaware County secured drop box for the return of vote-by-mail ballots is pictured, May 2, 2022, in Newtown Square, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

An election worker demonstrates mail-in ballot processing during a media preview at the Philadelphia Election Warehouse, in Philadelphia, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

People line up to vote at the Chicago Early Voting Loop Supersite in Chicago, Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

An elections official sorts counted mail-in ballots on the first day of tabulation, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, at the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Voters line up to vote as a early voting location opened in Carmel, Ind., Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Bennett College student Zairen Jackson listens to a fellow student answer a question during a roundtable in Greensboro, N.C., Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

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A voter fills out their their ballot during early voting in the general election, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, in Fall River, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

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Besides the hurricanes in North Carolina and Florida, the most worrisome disruptions to the election season so far were arson attacks that damaged ballots in two drop boxes near the Oregon-Washington border. Authorities there were searching for the person responsible.

The absence of any significant, widespread problems has not stopped Trump, the Republican nominee, or the RNC, which is now under his sway, from making numerous claims of fraud or election interference during the early voting period, a possible prelude to challenges after Election Day.

He has mischaracterized an investigation underway in Pennsylvania into roughly 2,500 potentially fraudulent voter registration applications by saying one of the counties was “caught with 2600 Fake Ballots and Forms, all written by the same person.” The investigation is into registration applications; there is no indication that ballots are involved.

In Georgia, Republicans sought to prohibit voters from returning mailed ballots to their local election office by the close of polls on Election Day, votes that are allowed under state law. A judge rejected their lawsuit over the weekend.

Trump and Republicans also have warned about the possibility that Democrats are recruiting masses of noncitizens to vote, a claim they have made without evidence and that runs counter to the data, including from Republican secretaries of state. Research has consistently shown that noncitizens registering to vote is rare. Any noncitizen who does faces the potential of felony charges and deportation, a significant disincentive.

One case of noncitizen voting was caught during early voting last month and resulted in felony charges in Michigan after a student from China cast an illegal early ballot.

This is the first presidential vote since Trump lost to Joe Biden four years ago and began various attempts to circumvent the outcome and remain in power. That climaxed with the violent Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol to halt certification of the results after Trump told his supporters to “fight like hell.”

Even now, a solid majority of Republicans believe Trump’s lie that Biden was not legitimately elected, despite reviews, audits and recounts in the battleground states that all affirmed Biden’s win. A survey last month from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showed Republicans remain much more skeptical than Democrats that their ballots will be counted accurately this year.

Seeking to rebuild voter confidence in a system targeted with false claims of widespread fraud, Republican lawmakers in more than a dozen states since 2020 have passed new voting restrictions. Those rules include shortening the window to apply or return a mail ballot, reducing the availability of ballot drop boxes and adding ID requirements.

On the last weekend before Election Day, Trump continued to falsely claim the election was being rigged against him and said a presidential winner should be declared on election night, before all the ballots are counted.

Vice President Kamala Harris urged voters not to fall for Trump’s tactic of casting doubt on elections. The Democratic nominee told supporters at a weekend rally in Michigan that the tactic was intended to suggest to people “that if they vote, their vote won’t matter.” Instead, she urged people who had already cast ballots to encourage their friends to do the same.

Through four years of election lies and voting-related conspiracy theories, local election officials have faced harassment and even death threats. That has prompted high turnover and led to heightened security for election offices and polling sites that includes panic buttons and bullet-proof glass.

While there have been no major reports of any malicious cyberactivity affecting election offices, foreign actors have been active in using fake social media profiles and websites to drum up partisan vitriol and disinformation. In the final weeks, U.S. intelligence officials have attributed to Russia multiple fake videos alleging election fraud in presidential swing states.

On the eve of Election Day, they issued a joint statement with federal law enforcement agencies warning that Russia in particular was ramping up its influence operations, including in ways that could incite violence, and likely would continue those efforts well after the votes have been cast.

Jen Easterly, the nation’s top election security official, urged Americans to rely on state and local election officials for information about elections.

“This is especially important as we are in an election cycle with an unprecedented amount of disinformation, including disinformation being aggressively peddled and amplified by our foreign adversaries at a greater scale than ever before,” she said. “We cannot allow our foreign adversaries to have a vote in our democracy.”

The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Control of Congress is at stake and with it a president’s agenda

By Lisa Mascaro and Mary Clare Jalonick, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of Congress is at stake Tuesday, with ever-tight races for the House and Senate that will determine which party holds the majority and the power to boost or block a president’s agenda, or if the White House confronts a divided Capitol Hill.

The key contests are playing out alongside the first presidential election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, but also in unexpected corners of the country after what has been one of the most chaotic congressional sessions in modern times.

In the end, just a handful of seats, or as little as one, could tip the balance in either chamber.

The economy, border security, reproductive rights and even the future of U.S. democracy itself have all punctuated the debate.

In the Senate, where Democrats now have a slim 51-49 majority, an early boost for Republicans is expected in West Virginia. Independent Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement creates an opening that Republican Jim Justice, now the state’s governor, is favored to win. A pickup there would deadlock the chamber, 50-50, as Republicans try to wrest control.

Top House races are focused in New York and California, where in a politically unusual twist, Democrats are trying to claw back some of the 10 or so seats where Republicans have made surprising gains in recent years with star lawmakers who helped deliver the party to power.

Other House races are scattered around the country in a sign of how narrow the field has become, with just a couple of dozen seats being seriously challenged, some of the most contentious in Maine, the “blue dot” around Omaha, Nebraska, and in Alaska.

Vote counting in some races could extend well past Tuesday.

“We’re in striking distance in terms of taking back the House,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is in line to make history as the first Black speaker if his party wins control, told The Associated Press during a recent campaign swing through Southern California.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson, drawing closer to Trump, predicts Republicans will keep “and grow” the majority. He took over after Kevin McCarthy was booted from the speaker’s office.

Capitol Hill can make or break a new White House’s priorities, giving Trump or Harris potential allies or adversaries in the House and Senate, or a divided Congress that could force a season of compromise or stalemate.

Congress can also play a role in upholding the American tradition of peacefully transferring presidential power. Four years ago, Trump sent his mob of supporters to “fight like hell” at the Capitol, and many Republicans in Congress voted to block Joe Biden’s election. Congress will again be called upon to certify the results of the presidential election in 2025.

What started as a lackluster race for control of Congress was instantly transformed once Harris stepped in for Biden at the top of the ticket, energizing Democrats with massive fundraising and volunteers that lawmakers said reminded them of the Obama-era enthusiasm of the 2008 election.

Billions of dollars have been spent by the parties, and outside groups, on the narrow battleground for both the 435-member House and 100-member Senate.

Democrats need to win a handful of House seats to pluck party control from Republicans. In the Senate, the vice president becomes the tie-breaker in a split, which would leave control of that chamber up to the winner of the White House.

Senate Republicans launched a wide-open map of opportunities, recruiting wealthy newcomers to put Democratic incumbents on defense in almost 10 states across the country.

In Ohio, Trump-backed Republican Bernie Moreno, a Cleveland businessman, is seeking to unseat three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Some $400 million has been spent on the race.

One of the most-watched Senate races, in Montana, may be among the last to be decided. Democrat Jon Tester, a popular three-term senator and “dirt farmer” is in the fight of his political career against Trump-backed Tim Sheehy, a wealthy former NAVY Seal, who made derogatory comments about Native Americans, a key constituency in the Western state.

And across the “blue wall” battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republicans are depending on Trump as they try to unseat a trio of incumbent Democratic senators.

Outgoing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has spent a career focused on seizing and keeping majority power, but other opportunities for Republicans are slipping into long shots.

In the Southwestern states, Arizona firebrand Republican Kari Lake has struggled against Democrat Ruben Gallego in the seat opened by Sen. Krysten Sinema’s retirement. In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has been holding out against newcomer Sam Brown.

Democrats intensified their challenges to a pair of Republican senators — Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott in Florida — in states where reproductive rights have been a focus in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision rolling back abortion access. Cruz faces Democrat Colin Allred, the Dallas-area congressman, while Scott has poured $10 millions of his own fortune into the race against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former House lawmaker.

Congress has a chance to reach several history-making milestones as it is reshaped by the American electorate and becomes more representative of a diverse nation.

Not one, but possibly two Black women could be on their way to the Senate, which would be something never seen in the U.S.

Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware is favored in the Senate race against Republican Eric Hansen.

And in Maryland, Harris-ally Angela Alsobrooks is in a highly competitive race against the state’s popular former governor, Republican Larry Hogan.

Americans have elected two Black women, including Harris, as senators since the nation’s founding, but never at the same time.

House candidate Sarah McBride, a state lawmaker from Delaware who is close to the Biden family, is poised to become the first openly transgender person in Congress.

Fallout from redistricting, when states redraw their maps for congressional districts, is also shifting the balance of power within the House — with Republicans set to gain several seats from Democrats in North Carolina and Democrats picking up a second Black-majority seat in Republican-heavy Alabama.

Lawmakers in the House face voters every two years, while senators serve longer six-year terms.

If the two chambers do in fact flip party control, as is possible, it would be rare.

Records show that if Democrats take the House and Republicans take the Senate, it would be the first time that the chambers of Congress have both flipped to opposing political parties.

Associated Press writers Stephen Groves, Kevin Freking and Farnoush Amiri contributed to this report.

Federal agencies say Russia and Iran are ramping up influence campaigns targeting US voters

By CHRISTINA A. CASSIDY and ALI SWENSON, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s federal law enforcement and election security agencies are debunking two new examples of Russian election disinformation on the eve of Election Day, highlighting attempts by foreign actors to sow doubt in the U.S. voting process and warning that the efforts run the risk of inciting violence against election officials.

In a joint statement late Monday, federal officials pointed to a recent article posted by Russian actors falsely claiming that U.S. officials across presidential swing states were orchestrating a plan to commit fraud, as well as a video that falsely depicted an interview with an individual claiming election fraud in Arizona.

U.S. intelligence reveals that Russia-linked influence actors “are manufacturing videos and creating fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of the election, instill fear in voters regarding the election process, and suggest Americans are using violence against each other due to political preferences,” read the statement issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. “These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials.”

A spokesperson for the Russian Embassy did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

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Federal officials warned that Russia will likely release additional “manufactured content” on Election Day and poses “the most active threat” when it comes to foreign election influence. The statement also noted that Iran remains a “significant foreign influence threat to U.S. elections.”

The effort described by federal officials is part of a wide-ranging influence operation by Russia designed to undermine confidence in the electoral process and sow discord among American voters. Intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia, which also interfered on Donald Trump’s behalf in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, again prefers the Republican nominee and is likely to persist in its influence operations well after Election Day.

Besides manufactured videos intended to promote disinformation, U.S. officials also have accused Russian state media of a covert, multimillion-dollar operation to spread pro-Russia content to American audiences and have seized dozens of internet domains they said fostered propaganda.

In their statement, officials also drew fresh attention to Iran’s attempts to interfere in the election, which include a hack-and-leak operation designed to harm Trump’s candidacy. The Justice Department in September charged three Iranian hackers in that effort.

Iranian actors also have created fake news sites and impersonated activists online in attempts to sway voters, according to analysts at Microsoft. The tech giant said last month that Iranian actors who allegedly sent emails aimed at intimidating U.S. voters in 2020 have been surveying election-related websites and major media outlets, raising concerns they could be preparing for another scheme this year.

As large tech firms and intelligence officials have called out foreign interference this election cycle, Russia, China and Iran have rejected claims that they are seeking to meddle with the U.S. election.

The Arizona video promoted on social media by Russian actors on Monday purported to show an anonymous whistleblower revealing an election fraud scheme. Federal officials said the Arizona Secretary of State’s office had already refuted the content of the video.

Earlier this week, U.S. officials confirmed that a video claiming to show voter fraud in two left-leaning counties in Georgia was fake and the product of a Russian troll farm. And last month, they attributed to Russia another fake video of a person tearing up ballots in what appeared to be Bucks County, Pennsylvania.

Associated Press writer Eric Tucker in Washington contributed to this report.

The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Curry returns as Warriors beat Wizards with wire-to-wire performance

WASHINGTON D.C. — Steph Curry returned after missing three games with a left ankle sprain, but the Warriors didn’t need to fully unleash him to discard the Wizards.

Curry opened the scoring with a 27-footer in the first minute of the game, giving the Warriors a lead they’d never relinquish. In his first game back from a left ankle sprain, Curry logged 24 minute and six assists in 24 minutes. He was on a minutes restriction, and the Warriors tweaked his substitution pattern so he could both start and finish the game.

“I feel good,” Curry said postgame. “It’s just still early in the year, you’re trying to build up the endurance. My ankle feels fine. It’s just, you don’t want to be in a position where you get fatigued and put yourself in jeopardy. This was a good stepping stone.”

The Warriors (6-1) never trailed in a 125-112 victory over the Wizards, who are expected to be among the worst teams in the league. Buddy Hield scored 20 points for a fourth straight game and Draymond Green pitched in 18 points, eight rebounds and five assists as six Warriors scored double figures. Former Warriors Jordan Poole led the Wizards with 24 points.

Especially in the first half, the Warriors didn’t let the Wizards off the hook for being undisciplined.

On one play, Poole gambled on a standard chest pass, giving Gary Payton II a free lane to the rim, which he used to feed Trayce Jackson-Davis for a dunk. Right before that, Curry missed a contested left-handed floater, only to pick up a loose ball after two bounces under the hoop, setting up another Jackson-Davis jam.

Often because of a lack of attention to detail or a lack of hustle, the Wizards allowed the Warriors to grab 11 offensive rebounds in the first half.

The Warriors didn’t play close to their A-game, either. Jordan Poole stripped Brandin Podziemski for a fast-break slam and later pick-sixed a poor cross-court pass from Gary Payton II. The Warriors shot just 32.4% from 23 and missed nine free throws.

But they didn’t need their A-game in the Capital One Arena.

Poole and Curry swapped 3-pointers in the waning seconds of the first half, with Curry beating the buzzer to give Golden State a 54-45 advantage.

Curry played the first six minutes of the game and then the last six minutes of the second quarter. He didn’t start the second half, emerging from the tunnel one minute into the third quarter and stretching at the scorer’s table. He played the final seven minutes of the third quarter and finished the game.

As Curry sat to begin the third quarter, Brandin Podziemski exited the game and didn’t return because he was dizzy and lightheaded. That left Golden State without a point guard momentarily. Even still, their double-digit lead held steady.

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Green hit a pair of 3-pointers, and although the Wizards did a better job finishing possessions with defensive rebounds, they couldn’t get enough stops to make up significant ground.

“They never quit,” Green said postgame. “We were in control of the game the whole game, but at no point did they quit. At no point did we feel it was easy.”

Curry drilled a wide-open corner 3 to push the Warriors’ lead to 73-57 halfway through the third. He threw a fist pump after getting an and-1 floater to go through contact from Johnny Davis. In his seven third-quarter minutes, Curry poured in 15 points.

As Curry sat to start the fourth quarter, the Wizards cut Golden State’s lead to five. But Steve Kerr resisted going back to Curry before he had to, and the mostly bench units regained their footing. Hield converted his second and-1 with a backdoor cut and slam, pushing Golden State’s advantage back to 11 halfway through the period.

When Curry subbed back in for the last five minutes, Golden State led by nine. It wasn’t quite a save situation, but the Warriors brought in their closer anyway.

The offense instantly opened up. Kyle Anderson flew in for a poster dunk. Green sank his third triple. Then Green found Jackson-Davis for an alley-oop. In 90 seconds with Curry back on the floor, the Warriors stretched their lead from nine to 14. They shut down the Wizards with defensive-oriented lineups to ice the game.

Curry said he expects to play more minutes going forward, and the Warriors are going to need that. The rest of their road trip features games agains the Celtics, Cavaliers and Thunder — arguably the best three teams in the league. When they get home, Western Conference contenders Dallas and Memphis await.

The Warriors have built a strong foundation by banking wins against teams they should beat. They’ve done so often convincingly, and have made good on many of their training camp promises.

How sustainable their strides are against tougher competition will be tested soon — first in a hostile environment at TD Garden.

“Obviously, we love the start,” Kerr said. “To go 6-1, that exceeds our expectations. But we also know that our schedule has been kind to us. We’ve played some teams that have been injured, we’ve played some young teams. So, it’s about to get a lot harder.”

Warriors’ Steve Kerr centers closing message on US presidential election around ‘big lie’

WASHINGTON D.C. — Asked about what it’s like to be in the nation’s capital on the eve of the U.S. presidential election, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr laid out — over nearly three minutes — his concerns of Donald Trump’s repeated election fraud conspiracies he considers “a direct assault on democracy.”

Kerr, who endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in a Democratic National Convention speech this summer, said he has had conversations with the team about the anxiety surrounding the election. Kerr and the Warriors coaches wore white “VOTE” shirts over the weekend and continued to don them on Monday night at Capital One Arena, where they played the Wizards.

“There’s a reason we’re wearing these shirts, it’s not just an NBA-mandated thing,” Kerr said. “We believe in our democracy, we believe in voting, we want to encourage everybody to get out and vote. And honestly, regardless of who you’re going to vote for: Get out and vote.

“I think the biggest thing that will come out of tomorrow will be election integrity, which has never been a thing in my entire life until Donald Trump decided it was going to be a thing. In order for our democracy to thrive, not only do we as citizens have to take part, but we also have to trust that these elections are not tainted — which they aren’t.”

Trump, the Republican nominee, lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, but has pushed unfounded claims that the election was rigged or stolen from him. He recently said at a campaign rally that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House. A bipartisan House Select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol concluded Trump’s false allegations of fraud provoked his supporters to storm the capitol.

The Department of Justice indicted Trump with obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to knowingly make a false statement, and assisting, aiding or comforting an insurrection. The indictment’s allegations were later narrowed following a Supreme Court ruling on immunity for former presidents, but the charges remained.

Trump has also been indicted in Georgia for his role in pressuring state officials and lawmakers to reverse Biden’s win and “find” enough votes to tip the election results his way.

Trump also became the first president in U.S. history to be convicted of felony crimes when a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels.

Some conservative media outlets lined up behind Trump’s claims. Fox News settled a defamation case against Dominion, a voting machine company, for $787 million.

Trump and his allies have failed to produce evidence of widespread voting irregularities. A Brookings Institute study of Heritage Foundation data found minuscule instances of voter fraud in key states. For example, Arizona has been home to 36 reported cases of voter fraud in its last 36 elections, with more than 42 million ballots cast.

“There’s been all these lies that have been spread over the last eight years about election integrity,” Kerr said. “People have been fooled into thinking there’s irregularities. It’s the most important part of our democracy, is for people to trust the election system. And so, I would urge everybody to vote.

“Pick your reason to vote. I vote on issues like gun violence prevention, which is very important to me, (and) abortion rights for women. Not that it’s any surprise, I’m voting for Harris. But I’m also voting for democracy. I’m voting because I know whichever side wins, I know I’m going to respect the election integrity.”

Trump has spent much of his final week on the campaign trail baselessly trying to discredit the legitimacy of this year’s election. He hasn’t committed to accepting the results of the 2024 election and has claimed that the only way he can lose would be if there is fraud.

An NBC survey of local election officials found that 38% reported experiencing threats, harassment and abuse and 54% are concerned about the safety of their colleagues.

“It’s a direct assault on democracy,” Kerr said. “So get out and vote tomorrow. Pick who you want to vote for. But understand that these elections are legitimate, they’re real. It’s never been an issue, ever, in my lifetime. Not a single instance of anyone even thinking the elections weren’t legitimate. Until a convicted felon who’s running for office again decided to conjure up all this stuff to put fear in the air. Which is a direct threat to our system and our democracy.”

Kerr said he talked about the “angst” around the election with Draymond Green on Monday morning. Neither he nor the team has made specific plans for watching Tuesday’s election.

Polls in swing states have consistently shown both Trump and Harris within the margin of error, signs of what is likely to be a tight race.

“I don’t think anyone knows what’s going to happen,” Kerr said.

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Kerr has been among the most outspoken professional sports figures when it comes to politics, particularly about gun control. Monday was the first time Kerr specifically called out Trump’s efforts to discredit fair elections publicly.

When Kerr accepted the Democratic Party’s invitation to speak at the convention in August, shortly after leading Team USA to Olympic gold, he delivered a speech centered around unity and the values leaders should demonstrate.

“The strength of our country is the diversity of our country,” Kerr said on Monday. “The strength of our country is us, our people. We’re all Americans. Whether you’re a Republican or Democrat, rural or urban, we are American. We need to unite, we need to be together. That was my message that night, and that’s what I wanted to get across. I hope that people recognize that.

“I’ve got a lot of friends who live in countries where they don’t have democracy. And they tell me all the time, it is fragile, don’t take it for granted. When you start questioning the validity of elections to try to gain power, you’re dealing with a very fragile governmental system that you’re trying to bring down in the name of power, which is the most anti-democratic thing I can think of.”

A presidential campaign unlike any other ends on Tuesday. Here’s how we got here

By CHRIS MEGERIAN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s the election that no one could have foreseen.

Not so long ago, Donald Trump was marinating in self-pity at Mar-a-Lago after being impeached twice and voted out of the White House. Even some of his closest allies were looking forward to a future without the charismatic yet erratic billionaire leading the Republican Party, especially after his failed attempt to overturn an election ended in violence and shame. When Trump announced his comeback bid two years ago, the New York Post buried the article on page 26.

At the same time, Kamala Harris was languishing as a low-profile sidekick to President Joe Biden. Once seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, she struggled with both her profile and her portfolio, disappointing her supporters and delighting her critics. No one was talking about Harris running for the top job — they were wondering if Biden should replace her as his running mate when he sought a second term.

FILE – Vice President Kamala Harris listens as President Joe Biden speaks about distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, in the East Room of the White House, May 17, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

But on Tuesday, improbable as it may have seemed before, Americans will choose either Trump or Harris to serve as the next president. It’s the final chapter in one of the most bewildering, unpredictable and consequential sagas in political history. For once, the word “unprecedented” has not been overused.

“If someone had told you ahead of time what was going to happen in this election, and you tried to sell it as a book, no one would believe it,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster with more than four decades of experience. “It’s energized the country and it’s polarized the country. And all we can hope is that we come out of it better in the end.”

History was and will be made. The United States has never elected a president who has been convicted of a crime. Trump survived not one but two assassination attempts. Biden dropped out in the middle of an election year and Harris could become the first female president. Fundamental tenets about democracy in the most powerful nation on earth will be tested like no time since the Civil War.

And that’s not to mention the backdrop of simultaneous conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, hacking by foreign governments, an increasingly normalized blizzard of misinformation and the intimate involvement of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.

For now, the only thing the country can agree on is that no one knows how the story will end.

Trump rebounded from disgrace to the Republican nomination

Republicans could have been finished with Trump after Jan. 6, 2021.

That’s the day he fired up his supporters with false claims of voter fraud, directed them to march on the U.S. Capitol while Congress was ceremonially certifying Biden’s election victory, and then stood by as rioting threatened lawmakers and his own vice president.

But not enough Republicans joined with Democrats to convict Trump in an impeachment trial, clearing a path for him to run for office again.

FILE – Former President Donald Trump looks out at the audience as he speaks at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., on Election Day, Nov. 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Trump started planning a comeback even as some leaders in his party hoped he would be eclipsed by Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, or Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

In the year after Trump announced that he would run against Biden, he faced criminal charges four times. Two of the indictments were connected to his attempts to overturn his election defeat. Another involved his refusal to return classified documents to the federal government after leaving office. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges, and none of those cases have been resolved.

However, a fourth indictment in New York led to Trump becoming the first president in U.S. history to be criminally convicted. A jury found him guilty on May 30 of falsifying business records over hush money payments to a porn star who claimed they had an affair.

None of it slowed Trump, who practically ignored his opponents during the primary as he barreled toward the Republican presidential nomination. A mugshot from one of his arrests was adopted by his followers as a symbol of resisting a corrupt system.

Trump’s candidacy capitalized on anger over inflation and frustration about migrants crossing the southern border. He also hammered Biden as too old for the job even though he’s only four years younger than the president.

FILE – President Joe Biden speaks during a presidential debate with Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

But Democrats also thought Biden, 81, would be better off considering retirement than a second term. So when Biden struggled through a presidential debate on June 27 — losing his train of thought, appearing confused, stammering through answers — he faced escalating pressure within his party to drop out of the race.

As Biden faced a political crisis, Trump went to an outdoor rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. A young man evaded police, climbed to the top of a nearby building and fired several shots with a semiautomatic rifle.

FILE – Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is surrounded by U.S. Secret Service agents at a campaign rally, July 13, 2024, in Butler, Pa. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Trump grabbed at his ear and dropped to the stage. While Secret Service agents crowded around him, he lurched to his feet with a streak of blood across his face, thrust his fist in the air and shouted “fight, fight, fight!” An American flag billowed overhead.

It was an instantly iconic moment. Trump’s path to the White House seemed clearer than ever — perhaps even inevitable.

Harris gets an unexpected opportunity at redemption

The vice president was getting ready to do a puzzle with her nieces on the morning of July 21 when Biden called. He had decided to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris as his replacement.

She spent the rest of the day making dozens of phone calls to line up support, and she had enough to secure the nomination within two days.

FILE – Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at her campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Del., July 22, 2024. (Erin Schaff/The New York Times via AP, Pool, File)

It was a startling reversal of fortune. Harris had flamed out when running for president four years earlier, dropping out before the first Democratic primary contest. Biden resuscitated her political career by choosing her as his running mate, and she became the first woman, Black person and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president.

But Harris’ struggles did not end there. She fumbled questions about immigration, oversaw widespread turnover in her office and faded into the background rather than use her historic status as a platform.

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All of that started to change on June 24, 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the nationwide right to abortion enshrined by Roe v. Wade. Harris became the White House’s top advocate on an issue that reshaped American politics.

She also proved to be more nimble than before. Shortly after returning from a weeklong trip to Africa, her team orchestrated a spur-of-the-moment venture to Nashville so Harris could show support for two Tennessee lawmakers who had been expelled for protesting for gun control.

Meanwhile, Harris was networking with local politicians, business leaders and cultural figures to gain ideas and build connections. When Biden dropped out, she was better positioned than many realized to seize the moment.

The day after she became the candidate, Harris jetted to Wilmington, Delaware to visit campaign headquarters. Staff members had spent the morning printing “Kamala” and “Harris for President” signs to tape up next to obsolete “Biden-Harris” posters.

There were 106 days until the end of the election.

The battle between Trump and Harris will reshape the country

While speaking to campaign staff in Wilmington, Harris used a line that has become a mantra, chanted by supporters at rallies across the country. “We are not going back,” she declared.

It’s a fitting counterpoint to Trump’s slogan, “make America great again,” which he has wielded since launching his first campaign more than eight years ago.

FILE – Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump watches as Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during an ABC News presidential debate, Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

The two candidates have almost nothing in common, something that was on display on Sept. 10, when Harris and Trump met for the first time for their only televised debate.

Harris promised to restore abortion rights and use tax breaks to support small businesses and families. She said she would “be a president for all Americans.”

FILE – Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris takes a photo with supporters during a campaign rally at the Alliant Energy Center in Madison, Wis., Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

Trump took credit for nominating the justices that helped overturn Roe, pledged to protect the U.S. economy with tariffs and made false claims about migrants eating people’s pets. He called Harris “the worst vice president in the history of our country.”

Harris was widely viewed as gaining the upper hand. Trump insisted he won but refused a second debate. The race remained remarkably close.

FILE – Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump greets supporters at a campaign rally in North Charleston, S.C., Feb. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/David Yeazell, File)

Pundits and pollsters have spent the final weeks straining to identify any shift in the candidates’ chances. Microscopic changes in public opinion could swing the outcome of the election. It might take days to count enough votes to determine who wins.

The outcome, whenever it becomes clear, could be just another surprise in a campaign that’s been full of them.

FILE – An Early Voting sign and a “No Campaigning within 150 feet of Polling Place” sign seen the polling station, Oct. 31, 2024, in Stockbridge, Ga. (AP Photo/Jason Allen, File)

Here’s what to watch as Election Day approaches in the U.S.

By Steve Peoples, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Election Day is nearly upon us. In a matter of hours, the final votes in the 2024 presidential election will be cast.

In a deeply divided nation, the election is a true toss-up between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

We know there are seven battleground states that will decide the outcome, barring a major surprise. But major questions persist about the timing of the results, the makeup of the electorate, the influx of misinformation — even the possibility of political violence. At the same time, both sides are prepared for a protracted legal battle that could complicate things further.

Here’s what to watch on the eve of Election Day 2024:

History will be made either way

Given all the twists and turns in recent months, it’s easy to overlook the historical significance of this election.

Harris would become the first female president in the United States’ 248-year history. She would also be the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold the office. Harris and her campaign have largely played down gender and race fearing that they might alienate some supporters. But the significance of a Harris win would not be lost on historians.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris walks to board Air Force Two as she departs Oakland County International Airport in Waterford Township, Mich., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, en route to Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool)

A Trump victory would represent a different kind of historical accomplishment. He would become the first person convicted of a felony elected to the U.S. presidency, having been convicted of 34 felony counts in a New York hush-money case little more than five months ago.

Trump, who is still facing felony charges in at least two separate criminal cases, argued that he is the victim of a politicized justice system. And tens of millions of voters apparently believe him — or they’re willing to overlook his extraordinary legal baggage.

How long will it take to know the winner?

Election Day in the United States is now often considered election week as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention the legal challenges — that can delay the results. But the truth is, nobody knows how long it will take for the winner to be announced this time.

In 2020, The Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — four days after polls closed. But even then, The AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after hand recounts.

Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polls closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

This time, both campaigns believe the race is extremely close across the seven swing states that are expected to decide the election, barring a major surprise: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The size of the map and the tightness of the race make it hard to predict when a winner could be declared.

Where can I find early clues about how the contest might unfold?

Look to two East Coast battleground states, North Carolina and Georgia, where the results could come in relatively quickly. That doesn’t mean we’ll get the final results in those states quickly if the returns are close, but they are the first swing states that might offer a sense of what kind of night we’re in for.

To go deeper, look to urban and suburban areas in the industrial North and Southeast, where Democrats have made gains since 2020.

In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, home to the state capital of Raleigh and the state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will reveal how much Trump will need to squeeze out of the less-populated rural areas he has dominated.

In Pennsylvania, Harris needs heavy turnout in deep blue Philadelphia, but she’s also looking to boost the Democrats’ advantage in the arc of suburban counties to the north and west of the city. She has campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden improved on Clinton’s 2016 winning margins. The Philadelphia metro area, including the four collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote.

Elsewhere in the Blue Wall, Trump needs to blunt Democratic growth in Michigan’s key suburban counties outside of Detroit, especially Oakland County. He faces the same challenge in Wisconsin’s Waukesha County outside of Milwaukee.

Where are the candidates?

Trump will likely spend the very early hours of Election Day in Michigan, where he is scheduled to hold a final late-night rally in Grand Rapids as has become his tradition.

The Republican candidate plans to spend the rest of the day in Florida, where he is expected to vote in person — despite previously saying he would vote early. He’s scheduled to hold a campaign watch party in Palm Beach Tuesday night.

Harris plans to attend an Election Night party at Howard University in Washington, a historically Black university where she graduated with a degree in economics and political science in 1986 and was an active member of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

Aside from Howard, she has no public schedule announced for Election Day.

Harris said Sunday that she had “just filled out” her mail-in ballot and it was “on its way to California.”

Who’s left to show up on Election Day?

On the eve of Election Day, it’s unclear which voters will show up to cast ballots on Tuesday.

More than 77 million people participated in early voting — either in person or through the mail. So many people already cast ballots that some officials say the polls in states like Georgia might be a “ghost town” on Election Day.

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One major reason for the surge is that that Trump has generally encouraged his supporters to vote early this time, a reversal from 2020 when he called on Republicans to vote only in-person on Election Day. The early vote numbers confirm that millions of Republicans have heeded Trump’s call in recent weeks.

The key question, however, is whether the surge of Republicans who voted early this time will ultimately cannibalize the number of Republicans who show up on Tuesday.

There are also shifts on the Democratic side. Four years ago, as the pandemic lingered, Democrats overwhelmingly cast their ballots early. But this time around, without the public health risk, it’s likely that more Democrats will show up in person on Election Day.

That balance on both sides is critical as we try to understand the early returns. And it’s on the campaigns to know which voters they still need to turn out on Tuesday. On that front, Democrats may have an advantage.

Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee have outsourced much of their get-out-the-vote operation operation to outside groups, including one funded largely by billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk that’s facing new questions about its practices. Harris’ campaign, by contrast, is running a more traditional operation that features more than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 offices in battleground states alone.

Could there be unrest?

Trump has been aggressively promoting baseless claims in recent days questioning the integrity of the election. He falsely insists that he can lose only if Democrats cheat, even as polls show that the race is a true toss-up.

Trump could again claim victory on election night regardless of the results, just as he did in 2020.

Such rhetoric can have serious consequences as the nation saw when Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in one of the darkest days in modern American history. And unfortunately, there is still a potential of further violence this election season.

The Republican National Committee will have thousands of “election integrity” poll monitors in place on Tuesday searching for any signs of fraud, which critics fear could lead to harassment of voters or election workers. In some key voting places, officials have requested the presence of sheriff deputies in addition to bulletproof glass and panic buttons that connect poll managers to a local 911 dispatcher.

At the same time, Trump allies note that he has faced two assassination attempts in recent months that raise the possibility of further threats against him. And police in Washington and other cities are preparing for the possibility of serious Election Day unrest.

As always, it’s worth noting that a broad coalition of top government and industry officials, many of them Republicans, found that the 2020 election was the “most secure” in American history.”

AP writers Tom Beaumont and Will Weissert in Washington and Jill Colvin in Grand Rapids, Michigan contributed.

Harris and Trump will both make a furious last-day push before Election Day

By Bill Barrow, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — A presidential campaign that has careened through a felony trial, an incumbent president being pushed off the ticket and multiple assassination attempts comes down to a final push across a handful of states on the eve of Election Day.

Kamala Harris will spend all of Monday in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes offer the largest prize among the states expected to determine the Electoral College outcome. The vice president and Democratic nominee will visit working-class areas including Allentown and end with a late-night Philadelphia rally that includes Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

Donald Trump plans four rallies in three states, beginning in Raleigh, North Carolina and stopping twice in Pennsylvania with events in Reading and Pittsburgh. The Republican nominee and former president ends his campaign the way he ended the first two, with a late Monday night event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

About 77 million Americans already have voted early, but Harris and Trump are pushing to turn out many millions more supporters on Tuesday. Either result on Election Day will yield a historic outcome.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Supporters listen as Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Kinston Jet Center, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Kinston, N.C. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

A supporter wears decorative Converse sneakers on a necklace as Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to speak during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the campus of Michigan State University, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump smiles at a campaign rally at Kinston Regional Jetport, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Kinston, N.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Kinston Regional Jetport, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Kinston, N.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

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A Trump victory would make him the first incoming president to have been indicted and convicted of a felony, after his hush-money trial in New York. He will gain the power to end other federal investigations pending against him. Trump would also become the second president in history to win non-consecutive White House terms, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.

Harris is vying to become the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to reach the Oval Office, four years after she broke the same barriers in national office by becoming President Joe Biden’s second in command.

The vice president ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after Biden’s disastrous performance in a June debate set into motion his withdrawing from the race. That was just one of a series of convulsions that have hit this year’s campaign.

Trump survived by millimeters a would-be assassin’s bullet at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. His Secret Service detail foiled a second attempt in September when a gunman had set up a rifle as Trump golfed at one of his courses in Florida.

Harris, 60, has played down the historic nature of her candidacy, which materialized only after the 81-year-old president ended his reelection bid after his June debate against the 78-year-old Trump accentuated questions about Biden’s age.

Instead, Harris has pitched herself as a generational change, emphasized her support for abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision ending the constitutional right to abortion services, and regularly noted the former president’s role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Assembling a coalition ranging from progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York to Republican former Vice President Dick Cheney, Harris has called Trump a threat to democracy and late in the campaign even embraced the critique that Trump is accurately described as a “fascist.”

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Heading into Monday, Harris has mostly stopped mentioning Trump. She is promising to solve problems and seek consensus, while sounding an almost exclusively optimistic tone reminiscent of her campaign’s opening days when she embraced “the politics of joy” and the campaign theme “Freedom.”

“From the very start, our campaign has not been about being against something, it is about being for something,” Harris said Sunday evening at Michigan State University.

Trump, renewing his “Make America Great Again” and “America First” slogans, has made his hard-line approach to immigration and withering criticisms of Harris and Biden the anchors of his argument for a second administration. He’s hammered Democrats for an inflationary economy, and he’s pledged to lead an economic “golden age,” end international conflicts and seal the U.S. southern border.

But Trump also has veered often into grievances over being prosecuted after trying to overturn Biden’s victory and repeatedly denigrated the country he wants to lead again as a “failed nation.” As recently as Sunday, he renewed his false claims that U.S. elections are rigged against him, mused about violence against journalists and said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House in 2021 — dark turns that have overshadowed another anchor of his closing argument: “Kamala broke it. I will fix it.”

The election is likely to be decided across seven states. Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 only to see them flip to Biden in 2020. North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada add the Sun Belt swath of the presidential battleground map.

Trump won North Carolina twice and lost Nevada twice. He won Arizona and Georgia in 2016 but saw them slip to Democrats in 2020.

Harris’ team has projected confidence in recent days, pointing to a large gender gap in early voting data and research showing late-deciding voters have broken her way. They also believe in the strength of their campaign infrastructure. This weekend, the Harris campaign had more than 90,000 volunteers helping turn out voters — and knocked on more than 3 million doors across the battleground states. Still, Harris aides have insisted she remains the underdog.

Trump’s team has projected confidence, as well, arguing that the former president’s populist appeal will attract younger and working-class voters across racial and ethnic lines. The idea is that Trump can amass an atypical Republican coalition, even as other traditional GOP blocks — notably college-educated voters — become more Democratic.

AP White House Correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.