Jeff Grubb's Blog, page 56

Political Desk: State Legislature, State Judiciary

There's nothing much for the Washington State Legislature and our State Judiciary this year. There's a seat in District 30, which does not include Grubb Street, and a Court of Appeals judge running unopposed, so that's about it for the State Reps and the Judges.

Except it HAS been a very interesting year for them. Our state Senate has been in the hands of the Republicans, which as, unlike those in other states, has shown an interest in actually governing. I know, my lefty heart demands I treat the GOP as opponents and the Dems as inconstant allies, but the legislature has actually worked on making progress. As noted under the referendum section, they have raised taxes (gasp!) to fund transportation, and helped close a loophole on Microsoft in order to help education. PLUS have reduced tuition at state-run colleges. This is not small change. The press likes to evoke the name of former governor Dan Evans as a descriptor for reasonable Republicans which is a pity, since it reminds everyone that the last time anyone in the state really trusted the GOP was during the Carter Administration. This is new, and this is good.

But, by the same token, Olympia has come up short on a biggie, which demonstrates a lot of the forces in play in our state. The people, through the initiative process.passed a law demanding that the legislature fund K-12 education in full. Education is a big thing out here - it is in our constitution. The legislature did not act immediately (like, over a couple years), and was found in contempt by the State Supreme Court (who takes the constitution pretty seriously). They made a stab at it this year, but still have come up short, such that the Supreme Court is now fining the legislature $100,000 a day for non-compliance. So far this has not been enough to drive the legislators back to Olympia (being a legislator IS a part-time job out here), but it has prompted a show-down between two of our branches.

Add to that the fact the the Supremes have also pulled state funding of Charter Schools because they are not overseen by local communities. Which makes sense, as charters have had a mixed success out here, ranging from OK to sudden and mysterious disappearances in the dead of night without anybody watching them. So our court system has waded in on our educational system, which, as far as I can tell, is part of their job.

Now, as noted at the top of this entry, neither the legislature nor the judiciary is up for major elections. This will not be true, so look forward to a year of fireworks building up to NEXT year's elections.

This should be interesting. More later,

Political Desk: Referendums

Remember when I said that the perennial Eyeman Initiatives are mostly unconstitutional? Here's where we deal with the wreckage of one of them. Referendums are bill passed by the Legislature which are then presented to the people for a double-check. This is usually used for more controversial bills to make sure that the reps are doing their job, or more pedestrian ones where they are mucking with the language of the state constitution.

BUT, there was an Eyeman Initiative a few years ago that was found only partially unconstitutional. The bit about requiring super-majorities to get things done? That was unconstitutional. But the bit about demanding to present these to the people, that was allowed to stand. Except it in a non-binding vote, so these referendums cannot really change things, but can express one's displeasure at the entire process. It is sort of a big opinion poll, and doesn't mean anything.

And as an opinion poll, its pretty crappy as well. The language is of the type "The legislature imposed ..." which is to say "The legislature did its JOB," but imposed is a scarier word. The amount of revenue that measures will raise are presented as a "Cost". This isn't a cost to the state, using your money. This is a cost to the people who are going to be affected by this particular tax or loophole closing. Sometimes, this group is relatively small, sometimes it is large enough to include the vast bulk of voters. But there is no way of knowing without digging deeper into the bills. And this amount is what the bill is expected to raise over TEN YEARS, so that huge price tag is amortized over a decade, but is something else left out of the summary.

In addition, while Initiatives have arguments presented for and against, referendums are not so required, so no one knows a whole lot about them. Thanks, guys.

So what we need is a referendum about referendums. Good luck with that. Let's see what's on the plate this year:

Advisory Vote 10 raises taxes on oil products transported by rail in the state. This is because we're transporting a lot more oil through the state from until-recently-bountiful oil shales of the Dakotas, and the oil companies and rail operations are woefully if not criminally inept in keeping their trains from not blowing up. Puts 17 million in the state's pocket from those transporters over ten years.

Advisory Vote 11 raises taxes on medical marijuana sales, as part of a larger measure to get med mary jane in line with other marijuana sales. They don't know how much this is going to bring in, because the legislators kept getting distracted at the free samples station. Actually, Washington State, so good in so many things, is a textbook case of how to bobble the ball on marijuana legislation, such that Oregon is already ahead of us. Oregon. Yeah, we should be embarrassed by that.

Advisory Vote 12 - This is a biggie - 3.7 billion (over ten years, but still, that's a lot of cash) raised from the bulk of consumers in the form of a increase to the gasoline tax. This one IS coming out of your pocket, and it is aimed at getting more funds for roads and mass transit. And before you start yelling about how the Dems are all tax and spend, this one was put together by our Republican-controlled upper house of the legislature, who, unlike some is other states (I'm looking at YOU, Kansas), is pretty good at facing realities.

Advisory Vote 13 - Raises 1.4 Billion over ten years by closing loopholes on the Business & Operating (B&O) and Sales Tax, with the intent of funding education. No, that's not quite it. It basically closes a loophole for taxes from software that is delivered online as opposed to through physical stores, and is aimed at manufacturers of a particular size. Which is currently defined as Microsoft. Microsoft is picking up the tab on this, and is apparently cool with the deal. Given that I usually haul out corporations for the largess laid upon them by the local government, I find this development .... interesting.

So, MAINTAINED on all on them (though I am wobbly on #11), but its not as if anyone is going to pay attention to it. Draw a cat on the ballot. See if I care.

More later,

Political Desk: Initiatives

Initiatives in Washington State are citizen-proposed laws. An individual comes up with a law, makes sure it is in a legal format (for example, initiatives are supposed to do only one thing, so "Outlaw tax increases AND give me a pony" is right out, but "Outlaw tax increases SO they give me a pony" is OK. Then get enough signatures (Eight per cent of the vote total for Governor in the most recent election) to put it on the ballot, and the people vote on it. Naturally, as with anything that has rules, the rules may be gamed, and we see a huge influx over the past few years of corporate moneys, big donors, and paid initiative gatherers.

And we have people in the Initiative Business, such as political character Tim Eyeman, who pops up with awful regularity alongside backers with deep pockets and populist "give me a pony" initiatives. One of his favorite attacks is to make it harder for the government to raise money, and these initiatives are usually unconstitutional but still effective enough to pour about six feet of sand into the mechanisms of government.

And for this service Mr. Eyeman is rewarded, such that his financial dealings have already been brought up on irregularities, as previous donors want to know what he's done with the money they gave him. And now there is a massive case brewing against him. The Public Disclosure Commission (PDC) has popped up irregularities to the tune of $380,000 being kicked back from donor funds into Mr. Eyeman's account in the 2012 election. This skimming is so odious that the PDC has asked the State Attorney General's office to step in, since the PDC cannot assign penalties big enough to be more than a rounding error on the theft. (appropos of nothing, the State AG makes $151,718 salary, so I'm sure there's not going to be any problem clearing a citizen initiative-maker who makes big bucks by profiteering our elected process).

Which gets us to the latest Eyeman Initiative, I-1366, which will once again force the government to get 2/3rds approval before raising taxes (and by raising taxes, this means closing loopholes or doing anything else that will actually, you know, raises revenue). Previous attempts have been found these plots to be mostly unconstitutional, so this time, the wrinkle is that the state is mandated to CHANGE THE CONSTITUTION to allow this, OR there will be a mandatory revenue reduction. Now, whether this form of extortion is constitutional in itself is up for debate. Early signs is that its not, but they still allowed it on the ballot because we have a high bar to deny initiatives, though a lower bar to cut them down once they become law. Of course, legality is completely beside the point as far as the Initiative usiness is concerned - they want to get a win, then cash the paycheck. Actually, they just want to cash the paycheck, and getting a win sets them up for the NEXT election.

Judged on its merits, I-1366 is one more sledgehammer initiative to show that government is bad and cannot function by making it impossible for it to function. I am going to go with a big fat NO on this one.

Now, there is ANOTHER Initiative the year which is much saner, and as a result has not gotten any attention at all. I-1401. It makes trafficking in certain endangered animal species (and their component parts) a class C felony. To which I have to say, you mean it ISN'T ALREADY?. It is an attempt, bankrolled by Paul Allen (his motto "Big Money in the cause of Good") to reduce poaching and smuggling by empowering the local levels and reducing the market for that material. So I'm good with it. Vote YES.

More later.

Political Desk: The Deep Election

This is a quiet year in elections around here, at least it is if you're not living in Seattle proper, which is electing its entire City Council. For the rest of us, we're looking at two initiatives, four referendums which don't meet squat, a couple Port positions, and nothing in the way of state legislature, judges, state executive offices, Congress, or the Presidency.

There is is a lot going on, politically, but most of it is going on behind the ballot. There has been a lot of activity in the state legislature, the judiciary, and the state executive branch, as well as news within the nature of initiatives themselves. Plus the run-up to the national elections.

So I'm going to be talking politics beyond the borders of the ballot box for a while. But when I am talking about the elections themselves, I tend to do the following:
 - I don't talk much about positions that have only one candidate. I always prefer a healthy choice, but I am denied that sometimes, and I can live with it.
 - I don't talk much about elections I am not voting in. I don't live in Seattle, so the entire City Council thing, which will have a deep effect on my life, is outside my portfolio, and will be pretty much ignored. Which is a pity, since a helluva scandal just broke loose where a developer tried to shake down a candidate.
- I am by no means a final word on these things. I will provide you folks to links to make up your own mind. Hey, I tend to be lefty in my outlook, but that doesn't make me right. I will point you (when they get their recommendations up) to the generally reliably conservative Seattle Times , which has slowly been making its way through the list, as well as The Stranger, which still weighs in, though it seems to think the world ends at the southern border of Georgetown, the Municipal League, and other blogs.

So let us take a leisurely stroll through matters this year, because next year we cry havoc and let slip the dogs of woah!

More later,

Play: Bridgework

A View From The Bridge: By Arthur Miller, Directed by Braden Abraham, Seattle Rep, though October 18th.

The Rep leads off its season with a straightforward tale well-told, a bit of classic theatre that dusts itself off and knocks one out of the park. There are no surprises, no twists, no musicians, no special effects, no supernatural undercurrents, no puppets. Just good actors and good words.

It even starts out with the statement that you've seen this before - Leonard Kelly-Young is Alfieri the lawyer, who is our narrator and declares at the outset the relentlessness and eternity of the tragedy along with his own feeling of helplessness is preventing. That feeling of helplessness spreads to the audience as well as the tale unfolds.

Eddie Carbone -. (Mark Zeisler) is a longshoreman in Red Hook who controls his household - his wife, Bea (Kirsten Potter) whose life is confined to the role of wife and his niece Catherine (Amy Danneker), who has been overprotected with an uncle's affection that borders fully on the creepy and runs through the play. That personal fiefdom is threatened by the introduction of two cousin from the old country who are  illegal immigrants - "submarine men"; stolid, strong Marko (Brandon O'Neill)  and good-natured, flamboyant Rodolpho (Frank Boyd). Rodolpho and Catherine hit is off, and everything just runs to a natural and bloody conclusion.

And that's the thing about the writing - not a word is wasted, not a bit of fat I could have done without. The characters are straightforward but not one-note, and the actors bring nuance to the roles. I'd give highest marks to the women, Danneker and Potter, who capture the flavor fully, while Boyd verges towards that Balki from Perfect Strangers stranger-in-a-stranger land humorous immigrant. The fact that the world, and Eddie in particular, pushes back hard on Rodolpho, recognizing him as being "not right" for their universe, and therefore an invader, grounds the character fully.

One thought did occur to me after leaving the play: The entire family dynamic echoes the later All in the Family sitcom, particularly with Zeisler as blue collar Eddie. And while the TV show is based on the earlier britcom Till Death Us Part, Miller's shadow looms large over other productions that came along later, in this tragedy of a man trying to enforce his will against the changing universe. The line that Alfieri the Lawyer comes back to is "Take half and like it", and the tragedy is that this is an option that is never taken.

Solid theatre, well-performed. Go see it.

More later,

DOW breaks 17000!

Well, that was fast.

Martin Luther King, Jr, paraphrasing Unitarian minister Theodore Parker, said "The arc of the Moral Universe is long, but it bends towards Justice."* The arc of Modern Wall Street is much, much shorter, but it too bends upwards towards a higher rate of return.

I mean, why the recovery, and so quickly? Greece is still as much a mess as it was back when we dipped into the 15000s a few weeks back. China's stock market is just a wobbly. Saudi Arabian investments are being reduced as they keep their oil prices low enough to close down the Dakota Oil Shale operations (successfully, as there are fleets of mobile homes now available on the cheap out there). Austerity hawks still circle despite the proven failure of that approach. Congress is just as dysfunctional, and all these lefty operations on the West Coast are raising wages and reaping low unemployment rates. Yet now we're back.

I believe, inherently, that we have trained certain markets to move inevitability, but not smoothly, upwards. The market is overheated because we are willing it to be, and the rise of various tech or housing or stock bubbles are a feature, not a bug, in the system. We talk about corrections, but until that point where we pitch ourselves into a full-bore, we-cannot-ignore-it, mile-wide-steamroller of a recession, the trend line is inevitably upwards.

My own gut check for economic health, by the way, is my commute. The worse it is, the better things are in general. And for the past week, traffic has really, really sucked, for reasons I cannot fully fathom. I think it may be tied with the shortening days, such that people who are used to rising with the first light suddenly are confronted with the fact that this first light is much later in the day. I may be tied to the return of school, which regiments when children have to get out the door, and as such puts an addition timer on the adults. But I do think that it is because we have crossed a threshold where the infrastructure itself is taxed by the increased load of the employed, who all, apparently want to get on the road at the same time I do.

But that's a just a theory. In the meantime, the DOW has restored itself, until the next correction.

More later,

* What Theodore Parker did say, nesting his semicolons neatly, was: "I do not pretend to understand the moral universe; the arc is a long one, my eye reaches but little ways; I cannot calculate the curve and complete the figure by the experience of sigh; I can divine it by conscience. And from what I see I am sure its bends towards justice." which is a darn sight better than the current attitude of "Past behavior does not guarantee future performance"

The Gaming News

I have been a tad busy this month, but would hate to let September slip away without some Gaming News.

Let me start with the good news: Jim Ward has gone home from the hospital and is on the mend. He really appreciated all the kind words and cards. Two months in the hospital is enough to make a man despair, and the support was greatly appreciated.

Also good news: former TSR editor Jim Lowder has been taken on as the consulting editor for Chaosium's  Fiction line. The original series of books edited by Robert Price and others were important in spreading the mythos further, and I look to see what the future holds for this.

Speaking of Cthulhu, Oscar Rios, who has put together the excellent Islands of Ignorance and Tales of the Crescent City, has launched a new kickstarter for Tales of the Caribbean, taking the mythos into the lands of rum-runners and voodoo. Oscar has delivered some excellent books so far, and I have no doubt that this will be a strong addition to his line.

Finally, Jon Peterson, has tracked down the script for the nigh-legendary D&D movie, the one that Gary Gygax was working on. Even at the time I was working at TSR, this project, announced in the pages of DRAGON magazine, was the stuff of legend. Jon walks us through the script beats.

That is it for the moment. October may be a bit bleak here as well, at least up to release day. After that, more later.

Meanwhile, 14 Years Ago

More later,

DOW breaks 16000!

Wait, isn't that going the wrong direction?

Totally true, though. After sailing past 17k, the DOW topped out around 17.5, weakened, and then proceeded to dive off a cliff. After a trading halt and a dead cat bounce, the venerable market marker is in the high 15000s.

So, what happened?

The thing is, no one is really sure. I mean, the Chinese Stock Market has had all sorts of problems, and the government has devalued to the yuan (you knew that the currency there, right?) in order to keep things going. But that has happened weeks ago, and has to be attached by the proviso that the West doesn't think the East knows what it's doing (Mr. Pot? Meet Mr. Kettle).

Or it could be the challenges poised to a dis-United Europe, with German austerity colliding with Greek poverty. But again, that's been going on for some time, and while accounting for the halting of a bull market, doesn't do much to explain the here-and-now of the slide.

Some point to oil prices, which have been low and dropping lower all the time. This appeals to the economic view of "Whatever happens, it's bad for YOU". You'd think lower prices at the pump would a good thing, but it is the result of various oil factions fighting it out with knives in a back alley. So you'll take your three-dollar gas and like it!

Another points to this sudden, massive "correction" as a response to the markets afraid that the Fed, which has kept borrowing rates phenomenally low during the Great Recession, will now get around to raising it a fraction of a point or so. And I'll be honest, that does appeal to the part of me that treats the corporate market as a small petulant child who panics when it seems like he will not get a cookie.

Or it could be none of them. It could be nothing more than a market suspended on happy thoughts and dreams of growth, but backed up with computer programs (William Gibson called them automated agents in his latest book, and nicknamed them "Aunties") sniffing around for the first signs of softening to bail out at the maximum peak.It could be a feature, not a bug.

But the thing I notice most of all, and want to pass on in these early days, is how calm and positive all this has been. After jumping at every noise and financial what-if for years, the market sage heads, confronted with a major jolt, are nodding and saying that a correction (from what error? to what truth) as been overdue, and this too will pass.

Color me suspicious. But then, I leave most of the investing to the Lovely Bride, and don't ask too many questions.

More later,

The Gaming News

GenCon, and its lingering con crud have passed (and for most people I noticed, it was a delayed con crud, moving in two days or even a week after the event), so let me catch up on stuff in gaming.

Let me start with the toughest news first. Gaming legend Jim Ward (Metamorphosis Alpha, Gamma World, my boss for many, many years at TSR) has been in the hospital for the past way too long for a diabetic ulcer on his foot. He's not doing particularly well, but is most worried about losing time on various projects he's involved in. A GoFundMe Account has been set up to help offset his medical costs. Cards and letters also appreciated, and he can be found at:
       St. Lukes
       Select       James Ward       Floor 4 28B      2900 Oklahoma Ave      Milwaukee, WI 53125
We're all pulling for you, Jim.

The big news that hit right at the end of the convention was an agreement clearing the way for a D&D Movie. The short version: Warner Brothers wants to make a D&D with Hasbro's permission, but has been blocked by Sweetpea Productions, who claims the rights (Though, like all things, it is complicated). The settlement puts Sweetpea as an exec producer (and probably more - we aren't partial to those dealings) and clears Warner to do the movie.

Now, this news, and the mention that it will be set in the Realms, has kicked off a flurry of speculation about a Drizzt movie, or an Elminster movie, or even (yes, in some parts) an Azure Bonds movie, but the best thing to look forward to is a good movie with a good story. The Marvel franchise has not slavishly wed itself to its original books, but instead did films that captured the flavor and magic of the IP without having to lockstep into previous continuity. Have fun, guys.

Speaking of Elminster, his creator, Ed Greenwood, has teamed up with Gabrielle Harbowy to edit the Women in Practical Armor short story collection. Their Kickstarter already made their numbers, but check em out anyway.

Also news out of GenCon was the change of ownership of the venerable Chaosium, home to Glorantha and the Call of Cthulhu games. This is all tied together, because the guys at Rising Moon, who delivered the glorious Guide to Glorantha coffee table tomes are now running things, and Elder Gods Greg Stafford and Sandy Petersen are retreating to the background once more. More information here.

In the wake of Gencon, this popped up on Vice of all places. It's a paen to the wonderful weirdness that is D&D. Author Zak S created the award-winning A Red and Pleasant Land , and his thoughts on the game evoke the writing style of Harlan Ellison when the man was doing essays as a regular column.

Over on the computer game side, there is this about writing for games. I have tales of my own, but you're going to have to buy me a beer. The article includes a link to this twine game (sort of a newfangled Choose-Your-Own-Adventure) called The Writer Will Do Something.

Also on the net is your chance to check out Chaldea: War Room. Chaldea was the home campaign of Peter Adkison (you know, WotC and, um, GenCon) and Peter has been polishing up his chops as a film-maker. War Room in the first of his videos.

And finally, a video that turned up a few weeks back from the Guild Wars: Nightfall game in 2006. Originally put together for the deluxe edition, I don't know if it ever shipped with the game, but instead made its way to the net years later. There are a lot of interviews with the old gang (myself included), and all I can say is ... we all look so YOUNG in it.

More later.