John Braddock's Blog, page 2

Wondering What Went Wrong

In televised poker, there’s a bad moment after a player gets knocked out. The losing player gets up and shakes hands with whoever just took all their chips. They walk away from the table, and a TV guy puts a microphone in their face. The TV guy asks, "What went wrong?"The player is asking himself the same question. But he might not know the answer. Poker is a game of both skill and luck. For the skill part, your decisions are based on data in three main categories: 1. The cards you can see (i...

Losing With Bad Data (Illustrated By Poker)

In televised poker, there’s a bad moment after a player gets knocked out. The losing player gets up and shakes hands with whoever just took all their chips. They walk away from the table, and a TV guy puts a microphone in their face. The TV guy asks, "What went wrong?"The player is asking himself the same question. But he might not know the answer. Poker is a game of both skill and luck. For the skill part, your decisions are based on data in three main categories: 1. The cards you can see (i...

When You See Instability Coming

When the future is like the past, you don’t need new data. You can make a good decision based on old data. You can take the right action based on old data. When the future is like the past, taking the right action means doing what worked before. When I work with executives in stable industries, they don’t need new data. They know what worked before. Their job is to monitor the machine that is their company, so it keeps working. Quality assurance and Six Sigma techniques are their prime conce...

When You're Ready For Instability

When the future is like the past, you don’t need new data. You can make a good decision based on old data. You can take the right action based on old data. When the future is like the past, taking the right action means doing what worked before. When I work with executives in stable industries, they don’t need new data. They know what worked before. Their job is to monitor the machine that is their company, so it keeps working. Quality assurance and Six Sigma techniques are their prime conce...

How To Think When You're Stuck

When you’re stuck, it’s frustrating. You’re in a fifty-fifty place where you could go either way. You could take the job or not. You could invest your time or not. You could get out or stay. Go or no go. Fifty-fifty. You can’t decide.You’re stuck. To get unstuck, the first question is: How much time do you have? The answer can range from no time to years. If you have no time, you’ll use the process you’ve been trained to use. Or the process you’ve trained yourself to use. In A Spy’s Guide To...

The Heuristics Of Risk

Working with risk is complicated. If you work in law enforcement or the military, you’ve got spreadsheets and computers and checklists to help you with risks. If you work in finance, you’ve got algorithms to help you make good decisions about risk. If you’re an entrepreneur, you’ve got mentors (hopefully) and bankers and consultants who help you analyze and minimize the risks to your business. When you’re a spy in the field, you don’t get much help with risks. You don’t have consultants or al...

When War Games Go Wrong

In 2002, the U.S. military played a war game called “Millennium Challenge.” In charge of the "Blue" U.S. Forces were the highest-ranking U.S. generals and admirals. Leading the "Red" enemy was a retired U.S. Marine Corps General named Paul Van Riper. When you do a war game, you want the enemy to act like a real enemy. You want them to think like a real enemy. You want them to build a strategy like a real enemy. You want them to use real enemy tactics. That’s what Van Riper did. Minutes into t...

Will Trade Wars Become Real Wars?

In a trader's letter at Seeking Alpha, Nell Sloane says, “the prospect for protectionism and tariffs turning into currency wars, which then have a tendency to turn into hot wars, it is largely apparent this week things have certainly escalated.”Jonathan Hillman of CSIS says about tariffs and trade wars: “the hazards could be even greater than anyone wants to admit. As protectionist sentiment rises, so does the risk of war.”Will trade wars become real wars? “Trade wars” are fundamentally “Boss...

"Zero-Sum Games" In U.S.-China Trade

A few months ago, China's President Xi said:"We must refrain from seeking dominance and reject the zero-sum game, we must refrain from 'beggar thy neighbor' and reject power politics or hegemony while the strong bully the weak."The Zero-Sum Game he's talking about is in trade. China and the U.S. have placed or threatened tariffs on each other's goods. Some are calling that a "trade war."As noted before, trade is a Positive-Sum Game. Both sides are better off from trade, or it doesn't happen....

Chapter One of The 24th Name

Thank you to all who made The 24th Name the #1 new release in Kindle Singles Fiction:Here's Chapter One: When I knocked on the door, a guy pulled it open and blinked into the sunshine. He shaded his eyes and found my face. “No girls?” he asked. He thought he knew me, which happens a lot. I’m mostly average. A little taller. More scars. But overall, mostly average. I look like a lot of guys. Including somebody this guy was expecting. I took advantage and pushed the door open. The guy backed up...