J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 48

Noted: Hipple: Structural Inequalities Driving U.S. Racial Disparities in Coronavirus

If you missed this last week, you need to read it, and you need to read it right now. Americas in equality of opportunity and result is now very deadly indeed: Liz Hipple: New Congressional Reports Underscore Structural Inequalities Driving U.S. Racial Disparities in Coronavirus Infections & Covid-19 Deaths: ���Consider Wisconsin, where only 6 percent of the population is black but African Americans make up 25 percent of the confirmed cases and 39 percent of deaths���. Data on how native Americans are becoming infected and dying has been scarce���a longstanding issue of native people made invisible by data gaps���but what data there are suggest that they, too, are disproportionately suffering from COVID-19���. Occupational segregation means that African American and Latinx workers are disproportionately represented in low-wage occupations that can���t be done remotely and are now on the front lines of essential work. They have to continue to show up to work even though it means exposing themselves���and the families they return to after their shifts end���to possible infection���. Black Americans are more likely to suffer from pre-existing health conditions, such as hypertension, heart disease, and asthma���. In part, these higher rates of co-morbidities are due to their greater likelihood of living in poverty, as lower socioeconomic status is associated with worse health outcomes. Yet prior research has already made clear that income alone cannot explain racial disparities in health outcomes���

#coronavirus #inequality #noted #publichealth #2020-05-18

Noted: de Ridder: Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy

Maarten de Ridder: Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussion-Papers/2019/CFMDP2019-07-Paper.pdf: 'Productivity growth has stagnated over the past decade. This paper argues that the rise of intangible inputs (such as information technology) can cause a slowdown of growth through the effect it has on production and competition. I hypothesize that intangibles cause a shift from variable costs to endogenous fixed costs, and use a new measure to show that the share of fixed costs in total costs rises when firms increase ICT and software investments. I then develop a quantitative framework in which intangibles reduce marginal costs and endogenously raise fixed costs, which gives firms with low adoption costs a competitive advantage. This advantage can be used to deter other firms from entering new markets and from developing higher qual- ity products. Paradoxically, the presence of firms with high levels of intangibles can therefore reduce the rate of creative destruction and innovation. I calibrate the model using administrative data on the universe of French firms and find that, after initially boosting productivity, the rise of intangibles causes a 0.6 percentage point decline in long-term productivity growth. The model further predicts a decline in business dynamism, a fall in the labor share and an increase in markups, though markups overstate the increase in firm profits...

#noted #2020-05-18

Noed: Orenstein: COVID Tracking

Natalie Orenstein: UC Berkeley to track asymptomatic COVID-19 spread in East Bay by testing 5,000 people https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/04/... 'Researchers want to understand much more about asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus in the East Bay, so they���re launching a major longitudinal study following at least 5,000 local people who show no sign of the disease. They hope the results will guide policy and preventive measures. ���We have no idea how many asymptomatic people are walking around with detectable virus,��� said Lisa Barcellos, who���s leading the study with Eva Harris. ���This is a real-time capture of how things are now and how they���ll change.��� The researchers will come up with a 5,000-person group representative of the population in the East Bay���on the bay side, from Hercules through Oakland.... Ultimately Barcellos and Harris expect to produce a trove of data on asymptomatic spread by zip code, age, sex, and race/ethnicity. While there are disturbing reports across the country of higher COVID-19 death rates for black people, for example, there are not a lot of hard data on risk factors yet, and generally ���what we know is coming from cases that were hospitalized,��� said Barcellos.�����A��representative, population-based sample is much more informative from a public health perspective,��� said Barcellos, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics... #berkeley #coronavirus #noted #publichealth #2020-05-18

Noted: Morley: Thucydides & Plague

I try to think about ancient Greece, its economy and its political economy, and I am led back to��� COVID-19: Neville Morley: People Are Strange https://thesphinxblog.com/2020/03/21/people-are-strange/: ���We need history, whether the detailed records of the influenza pandemic of the early 20th century or the careful account of Thucydides of the Athenian plague or the imaginative reconstruction of Camus: as a means of understanding how people may behave under unprecedented conditions of stress and uncertainty.... They don���t behave ���normally���; the traditional institutions, values and social expectations all buckle and collapse, time horizons shrink���live for the moment���s pleasure, because wealth and life are transitory, and the path of honour takes too long���and emotional states are dramatically heightened, from absolute despair to unshakable confidence.... It���s not normative social science, establishing clear principles on the basis of a fixed idea of human nature. On the contrary, Thucydides��� ���human thing��� is fuzzy, inconsistent, and somewhat unpredictable; just as no single remedy for the plague works for everybody, so not everyone responds in the same way. Some shun the sick, even their own families, while others risk their lives to keep looking after them; and reducing this to a quantified estimate of self-sacrifice probability rather misses the point.... Thucydides��� juxtaposition of the noble, in retrospect entirely unrealistic generalisations of Pericles��� Funeral Oration and the horrors of the plague���which of course also carried off Pericles... #coronavirus #history #noted #plague #publichealth #2020-05-18

Noted: Alix Gould-Werth: Unemployment Insurance

Successfully running a modern economy requires, on the political economy level, a well-functioning social insurance system. In lots of states we do not have a well-functioning social insurance system. Is centralizing functions at the federal level the solution? Before the age of Trump I would have said ���yes���. Now I think, more and more, that administrative reform has to come state-by-state���the slow boring of hard boards: Alix Gould-Werth: Fool Me Once: Investing in Unemployment Insurance systems to avoid the mistakes of the Great Recession during COVID-19 https://equitablegrowth.org/fool-me-once-investing-in-unemployment-insurance-systems-to-avoid-the-mistakes-of-the-great-recession-during-covid-19/: ���During the Great Recession of 2007���2009 and its aftermath, unemployed workers across the country struggled to access the unemployment benefits to which they were entitled, and our government���at both the state and federal levels���failed to remedy the systemic problems that prevent workers from accessing benefits and thus lead to personal financial hardship and a muted economic stimulus. In the early days of the coronavirus recession, we have seen the problems of the Great Recession echoed in the administrative failures of state Unemployment Insurance agencies. The current disarray in state unemployment benefits programs is neither a surprise nor an accident. It is the result of decades of conscious choices made by policymakers at the state and federal level���. Many states limited Unemployment Insurance benefits, made accessing the program more difficult, and refused to fully fund it���. To be able to respond nimbly to the next twists and turns in the coronavirus recession, policymakers should address three key structural flaws��� #equitablegrowth #inequality #noted #socialinsurance #2020-05-18

Noted: Bahn: JOLTS

Started by Equitable Growth alumnus Nick Bunker, its monthly JOLTS Day coverage���coverage of the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics���s latest survey results on job openings and labor turnover���should be at the very top of the must-reads in your monthly must-read lists. These survey numbers are, of course, now two months stale, so they speak of a different world than we now live in. Nevertheless, they are very interesting: Kate Bahn & Carmen Sanchez Cumming: JOLTS Day Graphs: March 2020 Report Edition https://equitablegrowth.org/jolts-day-graphs-march-2020-report-edition/: ���The quits rate decreased sharply from 2.3% in February to 1.8% in March, as workers��� confidence about job prospects declined amid the public health crisis and requisite state shutdowns���. While both the rates of job openings and hires decreased in March, openings did more so, leading to a slight increase in the vacancy yield��� #equitablegrowth #labormarket #macro #noted #2020-05-18

Intro: How Do We Learn (Online Especially)?

Intro: How Do We Learn (Online Especially)?

Universities will make a hash of moving online unless we answer the question: How do we learn? This video is the leadoff to a module that suggests some possible answers. We also need to know what economics is���and how it is good for. And the module that follows this video intro suggests some possible answers to those questions also.

(No: the module is not yet written up...)

#berkeley #cognition #economics #highlighted #teaching #2020-05-14


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Noted: Brighouse: Reflections: Teaching Online

Harry Brighouse: Reflections on Moving to Teaching Online https://crookedtimber.org/2020/05/13/reflections-on-moving-to-teaching-online/: ���Nobody knows what will happen with US colleges and universities in the fall, but it���s a fair guess that at least some, probably most, and not unlikely all, teaching will be online. Whatever is online in the fall will be unlike what was online in the spring: on the one hand people will have had a chance to prepare and train; on the other, classes will lack the glue that in-person meetings prior to going online made possible.... It was the optimal situation for moving online. The first two weeks online I split them into groups of 7-8, and met each for a full hour. Their prep involved writing TWO online responses to readings, and we would discuss one of those readings together during the meeting.... I found it exhausting to meet with students for 2 hours at a time. The main reason, I think, is that managing a discussion is just much more difficult online. In-person there are so many cues, not only to me, but to each other, about what they are thinking, who wants to talk, even what they are likely to say and whom they���ll be responding to. Most of these are absent online, but one is searching for them or for substitutes (which are also often not present!)...

#coronavirus #noted #teachingonline #universities #2020-05-14

Noted: Frauenfelder: Phoenix Checklist

Mark Frauenfelder: Here's the CIA's "Phoenix Checklist" for Thinking About Problems https://boingboing.net/2019/02/28/heres-the-cias-phoenix-c.html: 'The "Phoenix Checklist" is a set of questions developed by the CIA to define and think about a problem, and how to develop a solution: Why is it necessary to solve the problem? What benefits will you receive by solving the problem? What is the unknown? What is it you don���t yet understand? What is the information you have? What isn���t the problem? Is the information sufficient? Or is it insufficient? Or redundant? Or contradictory? Should you draw a diagram of the problem? A figure? Where are the boundaries of the problem? Can you separate the various parts of the problem? Can you write them down? What are the relationships of the parts of the problem? What are the constants of the problem? Have you seen this problem before? Have you seen this problem in a slightly different form? Do you know a related problem? Try to think of a familiar problem having the same or a similar unknown. Suppose you find a problem related to yours that has already been solved. Can you use it? Can you use its method? Can you restate your problem? How many different ways can you restate it? More general? More specific? Can the rules be changed? What are the best, worst and most probable cases you can imagine?...

#cognition #noted #2020-05-13

Noted: Schwarz: Caravels

George Robert Schwarz: The History and Development of Caravels https://nautarch.tamu.edu/Theses/pdf-files/Schwarz-MA2008.pdf: 'Information gained from the available sources reveals many of the caravel���s characteristics through time. This ship type outclassed its contemporaries during the age of exploration because of its highly adaptive characteristics. These traits were, principally, its shallow draught, speed, maneuverability, and ability to sail close to the wind. This combination of attributes made the caravel the ideal ship for reconnaissance along the rocky African coastline, as well as for making the transatlantic voyages to the New World. It was built in a Mediterranean way during its post-medieval phases, a method that still survives in some parts of the world today. During the Age of Discovery (ca. 1430 to 1530), the caravel sat low in the water, had one sterncastle, and was either lateen-rigged or had a combination of square and lateen sails. This vessel reflects the advanced shipbuilding technology that existed in Europe at this time, and played and important role in the voyages which allowed the Europeans to expand their territories around the world. The results of the studies presented in this thesis provide a history and development of the caravel, which was gradual and often obscure. What has been gained from this work is a body of information that can be applied to other studies about ancient seafaring, and can serve as a starting point for further research...

#commercialrevolution #economic hisotry#globalization #noted #2020-05-13