J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 296

James Politi: Us Tariffs See Small Businesses Plead for M...

James Politi: Us Tariffs See Small Businesses Plead for Mercy as Trade War Bites: "One by one, they paraded before a panel of US administration officials this week to plead for mercy in the escalating trade war with Beijing, at a public hearing on the $200bn in new tariffs threatened by Donald Trump against imports from China...

...There was Adam Finkel of Annjoy, Arizona-based supplier of paper shopping bags used by high-end retailers such as J Crew and Godiva. There was Wendell Howerton of Blue Ribbon Products, a North Carolina-based manufacturer of cast nets for fishing.�� There were lobbying groups representing home appliance makers, and the US fishing industry. And there was Steve Williams, of Elberta Crate & Box, from rural Georgia, which has been in business since 1905 making wooden containers for fruits and vegetables. All were bracing for a big hit to their business if the new tariffs end up being implemented...

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It could have happened this way���a Heisenberg: the GOP's...

It could have happened this way���a Heisenberg: the GOP's attempts to inoculate Kavanaugh against an accusation that Christine Blasey Ford had decided not to make pubic lead them to leak enough to reporters to convince CBF to come forward: Nicole Belle: Don't Kid Yourself. The GOP KNOWS Kavanaugh Tried To Rape Someone: "Blasey Ford... sends a letter to her representative... Anna Eshoo.... Eshoo passes Blasey Ford's letter on to Dianne Feinstein.... After several back-and-forths, Blasey Ford tells Feinstein's office she does not want to be put through testifying publicly...

...Feinstein respects that choice and tells colleagues that the matter has been handled. Feinstein also forwards the letter to the FBI for investigation (to be clear, this means the vetting investigation, not a criminal investigation). Per Feinstein, this happens sometime in early August���before the hearing begins. The FBI notifies the White House of the letter to see if they want follow-up. The White House declines further investigation. But now they know. And now they pass it on to GOP operatives. Early August.... So now the PR campaign goes into overdrive... glossy television ads of white women saying what a great guy he is... papers and online publications. Tiger Mom Amy Chua... offers an op-ed about how grateful she is that Kavanaugh selected her daughter as a clerk... the infamous letter of 65 women who Kavanaugh didn't try to rape... soccer team girls... carpooling... 5K races... all peremptory defense against a charge not yet out in the public. They knew it was coming.

They start leaking it to reporters who start sniffing around Blasey Ford at home and work, knowing that's going to intimidate her more. By last week, Blasey Ford realizes that the story is out and she can either tell her story herself or have the Republicans tell it for her. So she identifies herself. And almost immediately, the threats begin. She and her family must leave their home and work and get security. She gets an alert that BEFORE her name is known, Ed Whelan is poking around her LinkedIn profile. How would they know to do that if they didn't know about these charges, despite Kavanaugh's claim that he didn't know who made these charges until her name was outed?...

The first response from Kavanaugh and GOP operatives is to deny, deny, deny.... The stories start to change and morph and the GOP tries to find a message that works.... So the first defense was the "recovered memories are faulty". They sent Linda Chavez out to All In with Chris Hayes to float it. Republican operative Ed Whelan tweeted it (now deleted). But that didn't work.... So they went with the "doppelganger" theory. Sure, she may have been attacked, but she got confused about the identity of the attacker. First, they sent out Kathleen Parker to float it without specifics of the designated doppelganger, Chris Garrett. Seemed to work as a plausible deniability tactic, or at least, wasn't as openly mocked as the recovered memory one. Orrin Hatch's staffers are involved at this point because his Deputy Chief of Staff previews the coming tweet storm by Whelan. And then Whelan puts the meat on the bone.... The fact that Chris Garrett is still silent suggests to me that he volunteered to fall on the sword for his buddy Brett, because Whelan has been a political operative for a long time and knows a defamation suit by an innocent man unfairly accused would destroy all credibility of this defense. Let that irony steep for a bit. Because if Garrett didn't know, they just did to him what they're accusing Dr. Blasey Ford of doing to the undeserving Brett Kavanaugh....

Whelan... has a lot of very specific information that isn't in the public sphere and could only be provided by someone familiar with the actual event: Blasey Ford's friend, who attended the party as well. He also knew the layout of Garrett's childhood home and the similarity to Blasey Ford's description (apparently the staircase upstairs to the second floor had a landing in the middle). All that information he pushes into this tweetstorm to suggest that maybe this singularly traumatic event that has deeply affected Blasey Ford for decades could simply be... her confusing one white guy with brown hair for another.... Whelan names Garrett as a possible actual attempted rapist and then walks it back, claiming he didn't imply guilt, ultimately deleting the entire tweetstorm. But that's exactly what he did. It's a GOP ploy as old as time: Poison the well. You call attention to the poison. People lose their mind over the poisoned well and then you walk it back BEFORE people stop and say, "Wait. How did you know it was poisoned?"

Because the answer to this is, BRETT KAVANAUGH gave Whelan the poison. No one else could have provided all of this info. And it implicitly ADMITS that the attack happened. And what that means is that Kavanaugh knows exactly what Ford said did happen, it did happen, and he just wanted to throw out enough stuff for plausible deniability. So the GOP threw up woman after woman after woman as human shields against an attempted rapist. Because women are only tools to them...

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Simon Wren-Lewis: Would a Corbyn Brexit Heal the Nation o...

Simon Wren-Lewis: Would a Corbyn Brexit Heal the Nation or Wound Labour?: "The answer I think is that they want to keep the minority of Labour voters who still favour Leave voting Labour.... They believe that BINO with sweeteners would convince enough Labour Leavers that Labour had got the job done, and these voters would not worry too much about the details...

...So would BINO heal the wounds opened up by the original referendum or would it satisfy no one? A positive argument would start by suggesting that most Remainers will not mind losing any say in the EU, because they would be so relieved that we had avoided a hard Brexit. The people who should be worried about this loss of sovereignty are Leavers, but they will be more concerned with actually leaving. And both groups will be relieved it is all over. The argument against is that BINO is clearly inferior with being a member of the EU, so Remainers will know we have done something that is clearly nonsensical. Leavers on the other hand will be convinced (by the Brexit press in particular) that this result is a sham... As time goes on both sides will forget that the government was fulfilling a democratic mandate, and instead blame it for agreeing a Brexit that nobody likes. I don���t see how it is possible to know which of these outcomes will come to pass, which in turn means a government that enacts Brexit is risking a lot. Of course politicians are used to taking risks, but these risks normally involve trying to achieve something they think will do the country, or part of it, some good. It is somewhat novel to take risks to achieve something that in itself does nothing but reduce the country���s influence and sovereignty...

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Bayesian odds Brett Kavanaugh has a drinking problem at 7...

Bayesian odds Brett Kavanaugh has a drinking problem at 70%: Josh Marshall: "Kavanaugh asks Sen Klobuchar multiple times if she's had alcoholic blackouts..." Jeet Heer: @HeerJeet: "For me, this exchange between Kavanaugh and Klobuchar was... I won't say triggering but it really made and impression and resonated...

...I have a few alcoholics in my family and I've often had to try���gingerly and diplomatically���to try to talk to a few of them about the problems. the Klobuchar/Kavanaugh exchange was very familiar on those terms, rather than as a Senate grilling. Klobuchar, whose dad had a drinking problem, was clearly drawing on her own experience in the way she approached Kavanaugh: her tact, her eschewal of judgement. And Kavanaugh's response to Klobuchar: the defensiveness, the chip-on-the-shoulder, the you-think-your-better-than-me comeback.

Although there are lots of stories about Kavanaugh's drinking, it's really impossible (and impertinent) to know from a distance if he's an alcoholic. Could just be a guy who, like he says, enjoys beer as a relaxant but is otherwise okay. We really don't know. What we can say is that when the issue of his drinking is brought up, even in the most tactful way possible (as it was by Klobuchar), Kavanaugh responds by getting testy, defensive and hostile. That's not good.

Just Another Crank: @thereal_crank_: He revealed who he is, and the accusations against him even more believable. Imagine that person, drunk. For a lot of people, he was scary sober...

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Is Any Conclusion Possible Except that Brett Kavanaugh Is a CRAZYPANTS LIAR?

testified that in the summer of 1982, he spent a weekend at Garrett's house! Again, Garrett & Ford were in some stage of dating, going out for multiple months���and Kavanaugh didn't know the girl of his sleepover bud was dating?... Garrett, who Ford was seeing in some form for months, was one of his best friends, at least based on his calendars....

Garrett is ALL OVER that summer's calendars. I didn't count them all up, but I think his name may appear more than any other friend's that summer. (If not, it's close.)... On May 2, Kavanaugh goes to a Bullets game with Garrett. On June 12, Kavanaugh spends the night at Garrett's beach house in Rehoboth. On June 13, Kavanaugh sees Rocky III with Garrett. On July 30, Kavanaugh went to the beach with Garrett. On August 3, Kavanaugh goes to an Orioles doubleheader with Garrett. On August 14, Kavanaugh goes to the beach again with Garrett. On August 19, Kavanaugh...does something with Garrett, I can't read his handwriting. On August 20-22, Kavanaugh sleeps over at Garrett's house. He referred to that weekend in his testimony. Garrett was not an acquaintance ��� he was a very close friend. And again, Ford specifically cited Garrett, the man Ed Whelan falsely fingered, as the guy she was dating and who was her connection to Kavanaugh....

Mario the Dog: How did Whelan know to finger Garrett? Odd unless someone had connected Ford and Garrett for him. But that couldn't have been Kavanaugh because Kavanaugh has no idea wtf Ford is right?

A Baker's Dozen of Fairly-Recent Links

Bj��rn Richter, Moritz Schularick, and Ilhyock Shim: The Costs of Macroprudential Policy: "Macroprudential measures['] effects on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown.... The output costs of changes in maximum loan-to-value ratios are rather small.... Such policies successfully reduce household and mortgage credit growth.... Central banks could be in a position to use macroprudential instruments to manage financial booms without interfering with the core objectives of monetary policy in a major way...

Mark Thoma: C.V.

Fandango Restaurant: "Pacific Grove...

Brett Kavanaugh

Frank Wilhoit: [The Travesty of liberalism1709279: "Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect
Brad DeLong: Why Would Anybody Sane Ever, Ever Choose Brett Kavanaugh Over Amy Barrett?: "Amy Barrett has faith and principles: they do not know what the key issues will be 20 years from now, and they are scared to appoint somebody who may turn out to be like Justices Kennedy and Souter, actually have principles and faith, and so go off the reservation...
Stephanie Mencimer: The Many Mysteries of Brett Kavanaugh���s Finances: "Who made the down payment on his house? How did he come up with $92,000 in country club fees?...'"
Wikipedia: Amy Barrett
Wikipedia: Brett Kavanaugh
Neal Katyal: @neal_katyal: "Regardless of where one stands on the Kavanaugh nomination... with his former clerks, his mentoring and guidance is a model for all of us in the legal profession...
Paul Krugman: @paulkrugman: "The way law professors rushed to endorse Kavanaugh���who got his career start pursuing conspiracy theories...
Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Jessica Glenza: 'No Accident' Brett Kavanaugh's Female Law Clerks 'Looked like Models', Yale professor Told Students: "'I have no reason to believe he was saying, "Send me the pretty ones", but rather that he was reporting back and saying, "I really like so and so", and the way he described them led them to form certain conclusions"...

CIA: Soviet Jokes for the DDCI

Urban Dictionary: UHB: "Comes from the film Metropolitan in a bar scene where two young republicans define themselves as cultured post-modern upper-middle class sophisticates; thus, Urban Haute Bourgeoisie, or UHB. 'That girl won't date UHB, she's strictly prole; dating a frickin' electrician!'...

Sententiae Antiquae: Tell Me Aristotle, Why Do We Have Butts?

Wikipedia: Ken Ribet

Wikipedia: Lisa Goldberg

Beatrice Cherrier: Theory Vs Data, Computerization, Old Wine and New Bottles: Morgenstern and Econometric Society Fellows, 1953: "Morgenstern proposed that candidates be required to 'have done some econometric work in the strictest sense' and be 'in actual contact with data they have explored and exploited for which purpose they may have even developed new methods'...

James Davis Nicoll: Why I Don't Think Lunar Catapults Will Be Useful Weapons Against Targets on Earth: "If the catapults were able to fire stuff at velocities comparable to Earth's escape velocity... the energy content of the incoming rocks is something like 6x10^7 J/kg. For comparison, fission peace enhancement devices are good for about 9x10^12 J/kg, ims, and fusion PED for 8x10^14 J/kg. It still compares well to TNT's 4.6x10^6 J/kg but note we are not talking the five to seven orders of magnitude between atomic and chemical but one order of magnitude...

Ruthanna Emrys and Anne M. Pillsworth: Old Powers Rising: Nadia Bulkin���s ���Pro Patria���: "The book Fileppo puts on Joseph���s desk is leatherbound, redolent of the dungeon. The King in Yellow. Sounds like a child���s book, and Joseph immediately hates the thing. Adela, however, would like to read it. Fileppo looks over dark-skinned Adela and remarks that the book hasn���t been translated yet. Grimly she says she doesn���t need it translated. She knows their former conquerors��� tongue...

Center for Effective Global Action

Kate Bahn sends us to NPR's Planet Money: Kate Bahn: My G...

Kate Bahn sends us to NPR's Planet Money: Kate Bahn: My Girl Joan Robinson: "My girl Joan Robinson is discussed in this episode of @planetmoney on underrated economists https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/22/641002632/the-underrated-economists...

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How much of this correlation is causal? And how much is a...

How much of this correlation is causal? And how much is associational? I do not think we really know, in spite of studies of the build-out of broadband in France. The U.S. is a different country. Nevertheless, I for one think that it is long past time to put universal broadband in the same bucket as basic sanitation and rural electrification���as something that is part of the citizens' share of being an American: Delaney Crampton: Why accessibility to broadband matters in reducing economic inequality in the United States: "A strong correlation between household income and in-home connectivity���a pattern that persists across both rural and economically depressed urban communities...

...An overall two-thirds of U.S. adults aged 18 and older had access to broadband internet in their homes, just 41 percent of adults with household incomes less than $20,000 had it, while 90 percent of adults with household income higher than $100,000 had access.... Segregation and concentrated poverty determine access to in-home broadband.... For people in these communities, it means a continuation of struggling to apply for and obtain jobs, fill out college applications and complete homework, and get easily connected to a variety of telehealth options.

Expanding broadband to underserved areas and to low-income individuals would help ameliorate economic inequality in the United States. In an analysis looking at the effects of providing greater broadband access in France, the evidence is clear that the adoption of high-quality broadband raised mean incomes and lowered income inequality. For every 1 percent increase in broadband penetration, mean income rose by 0.14 percent. The study also found that between 2009 and 2013, broadband adoption alone contributed toward 34 percent of income growth and 80 percent of reductions in income inequality.... 31 percent of low-income individuals used the internet to search for jobs, compared to just 18 percent of high-income individuals. Thus, when people in low-income communities had accessibility to high-quality broadband at home, incomes began to rise for these households...

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For the Weekend...

Kieran Healy: @kjhealy: "Gazing around that Friday afternoon, they found themselves longing for those far-off days when sky above the port was the color of television, tuned to a dead channel...

William Gibson: Neuromancer: "The sky above the port was the color of television, tuned to a dead channel...

..."It's not like I'm using," Case heard someone say, as he shouldered his way through the crowd around the door of the Chat. "It's like my body's developed this massive drug deficiency." It was a Sprawl voice and a Sprawl joke. The Chatsubo was a bar for professional expatriates; you could drink there for a week and never hear two words in Japanese.

Ratz was tending bar, h is prosthetic arm jerking monotonously as he filled a tray of glasses with draft Kirin. He saw Case and smiled, his teeth a webwork of East European steel and brown decay. Case found a place at the bar, between the unlikely tan on one of Lonny Zone's whores and the crisp naval uniform of a tall African whose cheekbones were ridged with precise rows of tribal scars. "Wage was in here early, with two joeboys," Ratz said, shoving a draft across the bar with his good hand. "Maybe some business with you, Case?"

Case shrugged. The girl to his right giggled and nudged him.

The bartender's smile widened. His ugliness was the stuff of legend. In an age of affordable beauty, there was something heraldic about his lack of it. The antique arm whined as he reached for another mug. It was a Russian military prosthesis, a seven-function force-feedback manipulator, cased in grubby pink plastic. "You are too much the artiste, Herr Case." Ratz grunted; the sound served him as laughter. He scratched his overhang of white-shirted belly with the pink claw. "You are the artiste of the slightly funny deal."

"Sure," Case said, and sipped his beer. "Somebody's gotta be funny around here. Sure the fuck isn't you"...

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#books
#sciencefiction

Cosma Shalizi (2009): Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour and Ri...

Cosma Shalizi (2009): Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour and Richard Scheines, Causation, Prediction and Search: "Re-read as part of preparing for my lecture on casual discovery. I spent much of the winter of 2000 working my way through the first edition, and wound up completely imprinted on its way of thinking about what causal relationships are, how we should reason about them, and how we can find them from empirical evidence... http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/350/lectures/31/lecture-31.pdf...

.... On causation and prediction it now has an equal in Pearl's book (and I admit the latter looks prettier), but on search, that is, on discovering causal structure, there is still no rival. Their key observation is that even though correlation does not imply causation, correlations must have causal explanations. (This idea goes back to Herbert Simon, and Hans Reichenbach [see above] at least.)

So patterns of correlations, among more than just two variables, constrain what causal structures are possible. Sometimes they constrain the causal structure uniquely, in other cases it's only partially identified by the dependencies. And of course there is always the possibility of making a mistake with limited data. But none of this is any different for causal discovery than it is for any other form of statistical inference. The great contribution of this book is showing that causal discovery can be just another learning problem. They have transformed metaphysical misery into ordinary statistical unhappiness...

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