J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2300

Forecasting U.S. Stock Returns

Neil Hume of FT Alphaville directs us to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank:

A century-long look at the US equity market: If you are a market historian, you have to decide whether the 1900-[to:]-end-1994 best fit line was vaguely the correct basis for a long-term trend of equity prices or whether you believe something changed fundamentally in the mid-1990s in a positive manner (earnings?, the economy?, EM?) that permanently elevated the price level of Western equity markets. If you don’t believe that...

The Gulf of Campeche, Ixtoc-1, and Deepwater Horizon

Leila Landress:

Relief-Well Plan Was Used in Worst Blowout Ever, Took 9 Months: The worst blowout on record took about nine months to cap using two relief wells.... In 1979, Ixtoc-1, an exploratory well owned by Petroleos Mexicanos in 150 feet of water, blew out 600 miles (966 kilometers) south of Texas in Mexico’s Bay of Campeche and spilled an estimated 3.3 million barrels into the Gulf, according to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the American Petroleum Institute.... The oil...

New York Times FAIL

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

The New York Times gives space to David Einhorn to... tell lies. Dean Baker observes:

Looniness in the Cause of Deficit Reduction at the NYT: David Einhorn.... Einhorn is a bit more knowledgeable about basic economics than many of those who worry that the United States will be unable to find investors to buy its debt. Since he has heard of the Federal Reserve Board, he recognizes that the actual concern should be inflation, not...

Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps?

Jacob Weisberg, four years ago:

A similar pattern describes his views on gay rights. I remember McCain telling me during an interview in the mid-1990s about how a gay member of his staff sensitized him to the issue. When he ran for president in 2000, he won the endorsement of the Log Cabin Republicans. The Advocate calls him “notoriously pro-gay.” In 2004, McCain was one of only six Republican senators to vote against the Federal Marriage Amendment, and after a Massachusetts court...

Erwin Rommel Liveblogs World War II: May 27, 1940

Erwin Rommel: May 27, 1940:

Dearest Lu--

I'm very well. We're busy encircling the British and French in Lille at the moment. I'm taking part from the southwest. I'm all right for washing, etc. Guenther takes good care of that. I've taken a lot of photographs.

links for 2010-05-26

TBogg: Shorter Ross Douthat: Separate checks, please

SRD: "You know that guy who came into the restaurant with us and then started flipping over tables, throwing food, screaming at the other diners and smearing his feces on the walls? Yeah. That guy. We've never seen him before."





Oliver Kamm on Eric Hobsbawm: It takes an intellectual to find excuses for Stalinism

OK: "In his memoir he accords a fleeting...

Why It Would Be Good for America If the Republican Party Simply Closed Up Shop Today

Via Ben Armbruster:

NEWT GINGRICH: I said at that time that I thought Henry Paulson should not have been Treasury Secretary. I thought it was totally wrong for the former chairman of Goldman Sachs to be funneling billions of dollars from the taxpayers to Goldman Sachs. And I have said over and over, you can’t have capitalism on the way up and socialism on the way down because you get socialism both ways...

Versus:

NEWT GINGRICH: I think that [George W. Bush:] was very sincere in...

Deepwater Horizon Live Video Link

Live video link from the ROV monitoring the damaged riser

Franklin Delano Roosevelt Liveblogs World War II: May 26, 1940

FDR:

Fireside Chat 15: On National Defense (May 26, 1940): There are many among us who in the past closed their eyes to events abroad --because they believed in utter good faith what some of their fellow Americans told them -- that what was taking place in Europe was none of our business; that no matter what happened over there, the United States could always pursue its peaceful and unique course in the world.

There are many among us who closed their eyes, from lack of interest...

links for 2010-05-25

John Holbo: Conservative Principles: Liberaltarian Afterthoughts

JH: "In response to my request for him to explain what conservative-libertarian principle it is that Goldwater (read: Any Good, Principled Conservative) should have bent, and why, to accommodate the Civil Rights Act, [Conor:] Friedersdorf quotes quite a bit from Brink Lindsay and a bit more from Julian Sanchez. This is all fine.... If the conscience of a conservative should be, ideally, the...