J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2252

Delong Smackdown Watch: Joe Smith on the Invisible and Insensible Bond Market Vigilantes

Joe Smith writes:

Niall Ferguson on the Wonders of the Invisible World: Yields on long US government bonds should be up over 6% on any rational basis. They are not because the would-be bond vigilantes have no place to go if they abandon the US government securities. If they give up on US bonds the only investments really left to them as alternatives are canned goods and ammunition.

There are other things the PIIGS bond market vigilantes could hold besides U.S...

Niall Ferguson on the Wonders of the Invisible World

Niall Ferguson:

Today’s Keynesians have learnt nothing: The anti-Keynesians point out that bond market sell-offs are seldom gradual. All it takes is one piece of bad news – a credit rating downgrade, for example – to trigger a sell-off. And it is not just inflation that bond investors fear. Foreign holders of US debt – and they account for 47 per cent of the federal debt in public hands – worry about some kind of future default...

But they don't.

If foreigners holding the U.S...

Can't Anybody Here Play This Game? Fiscal Policy Edition

Niall Ferguson writes:

Today’s Keynesians have learnt nothing: When Franklin Roosevelt became president in 1933, the deficit was already running at 4.7 per cent of GDP. It rose to a peak of 5.6 per cent in 1934. The federal debt burden [in the United States:] rose only slightly – from 40 to 45 per cent of GDP – prior to the outbreak of the second world war. It was the war that saw the US (and all the other combatants) embark on fiscal expansions of the sort we have seen since 2007. So...

Payroll and Real GDP Growth

Adolf Hitler Liveblogs World War II: July 19, 1940

Adolf Hitler, July 19, 1940:

Deputies, Men of the German Reichstag! In the midst of the mighty struggle for the freedom and future of the German nation, I have called on you to gather for this session today... to give our Volk insight into the historic uniqueness of the events we have lived through; to express our thanks to the deserving soldiers; and to direct, once again and for the last time, an appeal to general reason....

The program of the National Socialist Revolution...

A 25% Probability of a Double Dip Is Alarmingly Large...

Calculated Risk tells us:

Calculated Risk: Goldman Sachs lowered their Q2 real annualized GDP growth estimate to 2%, and put the odds of a technical double-dip recession at 25%-30%.

What is Plan B... No, we are up to Plan AX by now, if there is a double dip?

In fact, what is Plan AX if the jobless recovery continues?

David Dayen Thinks He Spots Dingbat Kabuki

David:

Kabuki Activism: Obama, Axelrod Engage on Unemployment Extension After Outcome Decided: I’ve noticed a disturbing trend of the White House ramping up its rhetorical machinery only after a gain has been secured. Organizing for America is becoming famous for sending out emails on votes where the outcome is pre-ordained; they did it last week with the Wall Street reform vote in the Senate, after enough Senators made their positions known to get to 60 votes. Now it’s happening again...

Hoisted from the Archives: The Obama Fiscal Boost: A Note (January 10, 2009)

You know, I really wish that I had not been just talking to myself...

From January 10, 2009: The Obama Fiscal Boost: A Note:

Paul Krugman writes:

Romer and Bernstein on stimulus - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com: Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein have put out the official (?) Obama estimates of... the... American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan would accomplish.... Kudos, by the way, to the administration-in-waiting for providing this — it will be a joy to argue policy with an...

Hoisted from Archives: The Jobless Recovery (July 20, 2009)

You know, I really wish that I had not been just talking to myself...

From July 20, 2009: The jobless recovery has begun - The Week: Last December, economists forecast [average:] 2009 unemployment at 7.8 percent. As of this writing, it seems likely to be 9.3 percent or higher—at least 1.5 percentage points higher than originally estimated.... [T:]he next stretch of road bears all the marks of a jobless recovery. Back in the 1960s one of President Johnson's economic advisors, Brookings...

links for 2010-07-18

Philippe Bacchetta, Cédric Tille, and Eric van Wincoop: Risk panics: When markets crash for no apparent reason







Alan Blinder: Obama's Fiscal Priorities Are Right







M.E. Bradford: The Heresy of Equality







The Recollections of Alexis de Tocqueville







Ray Ginger: Six days or forever?: Tennessee v. John Thomas Scopes





...