J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2206
September 9, 2010
The Beveridge Curve and Structural Unemployment in the Great Depression--NOT!
Freshly back from the CEA staff and looking for a dissertation topic, Josh Hausman reports that there is no evidence of growing structural unemployment visible in an outward-shifting Beveridge curve during the Great Depression:
SEC v. Citigroup Documents
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, v. CITIGROUP INC.: COMPLAINT OF PLAINTIFF SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
During the October 15, 2007 conference call... Citigroup [Crittendon:] made the following prepared statement about the losses in the Securities and Banking business and the investment bank's sub-prime exposure:
$1.6 billion from writedowns in mortgage-backed securities which were warehoused for future CDO or...
Coordination Failure
Next time, when you agree to be at the studio for cspan at 9, ask first if they mean est or pdt...
September 8, 2010
links for 2010-09-08
@delong Fabulous Live Chat about the latest news on BP Oil Spill http://lz.ly/25Um Lovely
– Naomi Robinson (NaomiP2Robinson) http://twitter.com/NaomiP2Robinson/st...
(tags: from:NaomiP2Robinson)
Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds | Business | Vanity Fair
Timeo Danaos et Debita Ferentes...
Hoo Boy...
Duncan Black:
Eschaton: The View From The Mineapolis Fed: The problem is structural, nothing we can do, call us in a few years, naptime.
This estimate is based on a rather aggregative view of the labor market. It is important to dig deeper to get a better understanding of the problem, and there is a considerable amount of research under way exploring the quantitative importance of the various forms of mismatch. For example, the International Monetary Fund has recently...
Macroadvisers: Mind the Curve! Market Expectations and the Zero Bound
Macro Advisers tells us not to say "the yield curve is predicting a robust recovery":
Macroadvisers: Mind the Curve! Market Expectations and the Zero Bound: Mind the Curve! Market Expectations and the Zero Bound
Conventional wisdom would tell you that the yield curve is pricing in a robust recovery. Our term structure model says otherwise: Current yields are consistent with expectations of a very sluggish economy.
Indeed.
We are now looking--if nothing else is done--at a...
A Greco-Asiatic Horse...
Chuck Marr and Gillian Brunet point out that Obama's "middle class" tax cut would give me $6,743 a year, and give a middle-class family making $60,000 a year $1,132 a yeqr:
Truthsayer Diane Lim Rogers on Fiscal Policy
Listen to Diane Lim Rogers:
Peter Orszag “Breaking Free” from the Bush/Obama Tax Cuts: [E:]ven temporary extension of even just the (generously-defined) “middle class” portions of the Bush tax cuts is only a second-best (at best) solution to both the need for more short-term stimulus as well as the need to get back to fiscal sustainability over the not-so-long-from-now longer term. They’re not the best solution for the short term because they have far from the biggest stimulative “bang...
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