J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 197

Aja Romano: The Essential Game of Thrones Episodes to Wat...

Aja Romano: The Essential Game of Thrones Episodes to Watch Before Season 8: "We divided our must-watch episode guide into two lists: one for the plot and one for the shocks...

...[Plot:] ���Winter Is Coming��� [1:1]... ���A Golden Crown��� [1:6]... ���You Win or You Die��� [1:7]... ���Baelor��� [1:9]... ���Fire and Blood��� [1:10]... ���The North Remembers��� [2:1]... ���The Ghost of Harrenhal��� [2:5]... ���The Old Gods and the New��� [2:6]... ���Blackwater��� [2;9]... ���Valar Morghulis��� [2"10]... ���And Now His Watch Is Ended��� [3:4]... ���Kissed by Fire��� [3:5]... ���Second Sons��� [3:8]... ���The Rains of Castamere��� [3;9]... ���The Lion and the Rose��� [4:2]... ���Oathkeeper��� [4:4]... ���The Laws of God and Men��� [4:6]... ���The Watchers on the Wall��� [4:9]... ���The Children��� [4:10]... ���The Dance of Dragons" [5:9]... ���Mother���s Mercy��� [5:10]... ���Oathbreaker��� [6:3]... ���Book of the Stranger��� [6:4]... ���Battle of the Bastards���... [6:9]... ���The Winds of Winter��� [6:10]... ���The Queen���s Justice��� [7:3]... ���Eastwatch��� [7:5]... ���The Dragon and the Wolf��� [7:7]....

>[Shocks:] ���A Golden Crown��� [1:6]... ���The Pointy End��� [1:8]... ���Baelor��� [1:9]... ���Fire and Blood��� [1:10]... ���Blackwater��� [2:9]... ���The Climb��� [3:6]... ���The Bear and the Maiden Fair��� [3:7]... ** ���The Rains of Castamere��� [3:9]... ���The Mountain and the Viper��� [4:8]... ���The Children��� [4:10]... ���Hardhome��� [5:8]... ���The Dance of Dragons" [5:9]... ���The Door��� [6:5]... ���The Winds of Winter��� [6:10]... ���The Spoils of War��� [7:4]... ���The Dragon and the Wolf��� [7:7]...

#noted

Matthew O. Jackson and Leeat Yariv: The Non-Existence of ...

Matthew O. Jackson and Leeat Yariv: The Non-Existence of Representative Agents: "We characterize environments in which there exists a representative agent: an agent who inherits the structure of preferences of the population that she represents. The existence of such a representative agent imposes strong restrictions on individual utility functions���requiring them to be linear in the allocation and additively separable in any parameter that characterizes agents' preferences (e.g., a risk aversion parameter, a discount factor, etc.). Commonly used classes of utility functions (exponentially discounted utility functions, CRRA or CARA utility functions, logarithmic functions, etc.) do not admit a representative agent...

#noted

Comment of the Day: Robert Waldmann: "The problem, as you...

Comment of the Day: Robert Waldmann: "The problem, as you note, is that, when they are right, MMTers have a whole lot of company. A more Keynesian than Keynesian school whose 3rd notably accomplishment is to agree with Milton Friedman does, I think, lack exclusivity (not the determination to exclude everyone else but any basis for that exclusion). Reinhart and Rogoff have been very widely ridiculed (for the spreadsheet error which was not quantitatively important, not basing their conclusion on one year in New Zealand which was). You will note distinct mockery of fiscal space by OJ Blanchard now president of the AEA after many years as head economist at the IMF. The three examples you give of points where MMT is right do not establish one point where MMT is both right and original. They may have contributed something for all I know (I have not and will not read the MMT literature) but you provide no evidence that they have...

#commentoftheday

Niall Ferguson says that in order to defend intellectuals...

Niall Ferguson says that in order to defend intellectuals and the public sphere we should line up alongside Hungarian proto-dictator Victor Orban and his friend Roger Scruton rather than alongside George Soros, the Central European University, and... the Tory British government? There is something very wrong here. And the smart Daniel Kuehn is not amused. Nor am I. I have been around long enough to learn a thing or two, and one is that people who only find objection to what plutocrats do when they are Jewish individuals (George Soros) or institutions (Goldman Sachs) are never arguing in good faith: Daniel Kuehn: LOL at intellectuals who have trouble with the idea that there are people out there who are critical of their ideas (possibly lots of people if they consider your ideas bad enough). If this is a stumbling block for you you might be in the wrong line of work: https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1117233701102821377. I mean I���ll whine if someone disagrees with me just like the rest of you losers do, but demanding Article 5 treatment is awfully melodramatic even for Ferguson...

Brad DeLong: Hold it! Does Ferguson claim that Scruton's "Anybody who doesn���t think that there���s a Soros empire in Hungary has not observed the facts..." is in some way taken out of context? George Soros is not running an "empire" in Hungary. Kinda surprised that Ferguson isn't invoking Article 5 to defend George Soros's place in Hungary's public sphere and the Central European University's place in Budapest against Orban...

Daniel Kuehn: "That one sort of gives away the game doesn���t it? I don���t know Scruton at all. Maybe he���s being unjustly criticized, maybe it���s perfectly justified. But meaningful defense of academic freedom in Hungary today would have to defend Soto���s if it���s to have even a hint of credibility...

#noted

Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (April 12, 2019)

What Are Our Plans?
CFR Future of Democracy Symposium: Session Two: Economics, Identity, and the Democratic Recession: Transcript and Link to Video
This Identity Politics Stuff is Killing America...
Dotting i's and Crossing t's with Respect to Olivier Blanchard's "Secular Stagnation" Fiscal-Policy-in-an-Era-of-Low-Interest-Rates AEA Presidential Address

Peter Diamond (1965): National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model

Barack Obama: 2010 State of the Union

[2 Thessalonians 3:10(https://biblehub.com/kjv/2thessalonians/3.htm)_: "For even when we were with you, this we commanded you, that if any would not work, neither should he eat...

1 Corinthians 11:5: "But every woman that prayeth or prophesieth with her head uncovered dishonoureth her head: for that is even all one as if she were shaven. For if the woman be not covered, let her also be shorn: but if it be a shame for a woman to be shorn or shaven, let her be covered. For a man indeed ought not to cover his head, forasmuch as he is the image and glory of God: but the woman is the glory of the man. For the man is not of the woman; but the woman of the man. Neither was the man created for the woman; but the woman for the man. For this cause ought the woman to have power on her head because of the angels...

Acts 4:34: "Neither was there any among them that lacked: for as many as were possessors of lands or houses sold them, and brought the prices of the things that were sold, and laid them down at the apostles' feet: and distribution was made unto every man according as he had need...

1 Enoch 7: "It happened after the sons of men had multiplied in those days, that daughters were born to them, elegant and beautiful. And when the angels, (3) the sons of heaven, beheld them, they became enamoured of them, saying to each other, Come, let us select for ourselves wives from the progeny of men, and let us beget children.... Then their leader Samyaza said to them; I fear that you may perhaps be indisposed to the performance of this enterprise; And that I alone shall suffer for so grievous a crime. But they answered him and said; We all swear; And bind ourselves by mutual execrations, that we will not change our intention, but execute our projected undertaking.... Then they took wives, each choosing for himself; whom they began to approach, and with whom they cohabited; teaching them sorcery, incantations, and the dividing of roots and trees. And the women conceiving brought forth giants, Whose stature was each three hundred cubits. These devoured all which the labor of men produced; until it became impossible to feed them; When they turned themselves against men, in order to devour them; And began to injure birds, beasts, reptiles, and fishes, to eat their flesh one after another, and to drink their blood...

Kevin Hartnett: Mathematicians Discover the Perfect Way to Multiply: "By chopping up large numbers into smaller ones, researchers have rewritten a fundamental mathematical speed limit...

Joe Light: The Tax Law���s Big Winner Is the Millionaire CEO: "Cutting the top marginal rate was always going to help the wealthy the most...

Gene Birz: Stale Economic News, Media and the Stock Market: "I find statistically and economically significant relationship between stale news stories on unemployment and next week���s S&P 500 returns. This effect is then completely reversed during the following week. These findings show that investors are affected by salient information and support the hypothesis that investors overreact to stale macroeconomic news reported in newspapers...

Angela Lashbrook: The Next Wellness Trend Should Be Google Spreadsheets: "How focused planning���and color-coded rows and columns���can make stress melt��away...

David Murphy: Lock Down Your Social Media Data With the PlusPrivacy Chrome Extension

Talia Lavin: I wrote up a guide to what to do if you���re targeted by the right-wing smear machine. (Remember that your relative importance doesn���t matter AT ALL; they love crushing the defenseless even more.)...

John Lovett: "See but ending the Skywalker saga gives us the movie we all want: PORGS vs. EWOKS: DAWN OF JUSTICE...

Clark Kerr is supposed to have said that the life of a Berkeley Chancellor is easy as long as: (1) the students are having enough sex, (2) the alumni are watching enough football, and (3) the faculty have enough parking. Now Carol Christ is discovering the consequences of what happens when (3) is not satisfied. And it is dire: rthe prospective tear-down of the Upper Hearst Parking Structure is a crisis!: Carol Christ: An Update on the Upper Hearst Project: "The campus��� plan to develop faculty housing and academic space on the site of the Upper Hearst parking lot is generating legitimate concerns and questions.... We continue to engage with our colleagues at the College of Engineering and the Goldman School of Public Policy.... We need to do a better job disseminating information about the project and its impacts.... We are sharing with all members of the Academic Senate the note below that was recently sent to the College of Engineering faculty by the Provost.... We will publish and distribute a comprehensive FAQ... provide ample opportunity for��comment and feedback...

Marcella Alsan (2015): The Effect of the TseTse Fly on African Development: "The TseTse fly is unique to Africa and transmits a parasite harmful to humans and lethal to livestock. This paper tests the hypothesis that the TseTse reduced the ability of Africans to generate an agricultural surplus historically. Ethnic groups inhabiting TseTse-suitable areas were less likely to use domesticated animals and the plow, less likely to be politically centralized, and had a lower population density. These correlations are not found in the tropics outside of Africa, where the fly does not exist. The evidence suggests current economic performance is affected by the TseTse through the channel of precolonial political centralization...

I would put this more strongly. Trump and the Trumpists have absolutely no idea what they should be doing or are doing with respect to U.S.-China economic relations. And it shows: Tom Mitchell: Trump Had a Chance to Gain Greater Leverage Over China But Blew It: "Last spring a senior US executive complained to a government official about President Donald Trump���s... tariffs on imports from China.... The official had a pointed response: what leverage would the executive use to change Chinese approaches that have frustrated US businesses for decades, from forced technology transfers to state-directed industrial policies?... The executive had a three-letter answer: TPP, referring to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact from which the US withdrew on Mr Trump���s first day in office...

Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chit��u: Mars or Mercury Redux: The Geopolitics of Bilateral Trade: "The pre-World War I period... whether trade agreements are governed by pecuniary factors... or by geopolitical factors.... We find that defense pacts boost the probability of trade agreements by as much as 20 percentage points. Our estimates imply that were the U.S. to alienate its geopolitical allies, the likelihood and benefits of successful bilateral agreements would fall significantly. Trade creation from an agreement between the U.S. and E.U. countries would decline by about 0.6 percent of total U.S. exports...

There is an argument that somebody who has built a food-processing and consumer-service business and met its payroll���like Herman Cain���should be on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, in order to keep the staff and the other Governors reality-based in the sense that it would force them to explain themselves to somebody whose experience is in the real and not the financial economy. There is no argument that Herman Cain is the best businessman for the slot. There is no argument at all that Stephen Moore���whose qualification is having played an economist on TV, and being willing to dump whatever of his previous policy positions (free trade? TPP? gold standard? anything else?) over the side whenever his political masters demand���belongs on the Fed. And the pro-Moore pro-Cain pieces that are currently being planted are reduced to closing with "Moore and Cain would only be two of 12 FOMC votes". But Republicans���save Greg Mankiw and Ross Douthat���are in lockstep behind them. Well���almost in lockstep. Herman Cain is the stronger (not strong) candidate. Republican Senators Kevin Cramer (ND), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Cory Gardner (CO), and Mitt Romney (UT) are for Moore and against Cain. This identity politics stuff is killing America Jim Bianco: The Fed Would Benefit from Stephen Moore, Herman Cain: "Policymaking positions should help determine policy, not act as a rubber stamp for the staff or Chairman. They should hold divergent views, come from different backgrounds and be ready to explain themselves. Policy makers should be given the resources to flesh out their ideas. If confirmed, Moore and Cain would only be two of 12 FOMC votes. Their unique perspectives could make the Fed a stronger institution...

Ellora Derenoncourt: Atlantic Slavery���s Impact on European and British Economic Development: "The economics literature on Atlantic slavery attests to its negative long-run impact on development outcomes in Africa and the Americas. What was slavery���s impact on Europe? In this paper, I test the hypothesis that slavery contributed to modern economic growth in Europe using data on European participation in the Atlantic slave trade. I estimate a panel fixed effects model and show that the number of slaving voyages is positively associated with European city growth from 1600-1850. A 10% increase in slaving voyages is associated with a 1.2% increase in port city population. Using a newly created dataset on British port-level trade, I show that for the UK, this effect is distinct from that of general overseas trade, which also increased during this period...

BREXIT!!: Ian Dunt: Week in Review: The Frazzlfication Ends Now. For a Little Bit.: "On January 15th, Theresa May's Brexit deal was defeated by a historic margin. Immediately afterwards, Jeremy Corbyn called a no-confidence vote, which he lost. Then the Malthouse Compromise was born, as a kind of release valve for MPs' desperate stupidity. The government responded by whipping in support of its evil twin, the Brady amendment, and won, thereby sabotaging its own negotiating strategy. Labour published a new Brexit strategy, which looked suspiciously like Norway Plus but was different to it in ways they were unable or unwilling to describe. The government then proceeded to lose a vote on the policy which MPs had forced on it the week before, driving British politics into a kind of post-modern chasm in which David Lynch became the creative director of parliament. Then a group of Labour and Tory MPs split from the party to form the Independent Group. May announced she would request a dual extension of Article 50-short in the case of a deal and long if not. She later went back on this and requested only the short extension. She also secured an update to her deal with the Europeans which didn't really change anything. MPs promptly and unsurprisingly rejected it again. In response, the government put forward a convoluted motion on no-deal, whipped MPs to oppose an amendment which simplified it, lost, and had to therefore whip against its own motion even though it amounted to the exact policy it said it was pursuing anyway. Then anyone who still believed in parliamentary democracy decided maybe it wasn't such a great idea after all. Soon enough John Bercow popped up and refused to allow May to bring her deal back to the Commons a third time unless it was changed. May secured her first extension of Article 50, but then MPs passed an amendment taking control of the Brexit process, triggering a new bout of constitutional chaos. The Brexit process became a kind of executive dual carriageway, with the government pursing one strategy and parliament another. In a bid to get MPs to back her deal, May offered her own resignation as an incentive, seemingly oblivious to how logically and morally broken that was as a strategy. MPs, for their part, held a series of indicative votes and found no majority. May stripped her deal in two to get it past Bercow, put it before the Commons again, and lost again. MPs held more indicative votes and still could not find a majority. Pitiful broken toys scattered everywhere. May announced she would seek another Article 50 extension. Parliament passed a bill, independently of government, forcing her to do the thing she said she would do, given that her reputation for reliability at this stage was frankly not what it was. And then, finally, the EU offered an extension to October 31st. And now here we are. Three months later and about twelve hundred years older...

Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Links (4/12/19): "Purity vs. Pragmatism, Environment vs. Health... Krugman. Bad News for IV Estimation....Keep the Federal Reserve I Love Alive-Greg Mankiw. Peaceful Coexistence 2.0-Dani Rodrik...

Marshall Burke, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, and Edward Miguel: Sell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets: "Small-scale farmers are commonly observed to ���sell low and buy high,��� rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya... credit market imperfections.... Timely access to credit... increasing farm revenues and generating a return on investment of 29%.... In contrast to existing experimental work, the results indicate a setting in which microcredit can improve firm profitability, and suggest that GE effects can substantially shape microcredit���s effectiveness. In particular, failure to consider these GE effects could lead to underestimates of the social welfare benefits of microcredit interventions...

#noted #weblogs

Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Links (4/12/19): "Purity vs...

Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Links (4/12/19): "Purity vs. Pragmatism, Environment vs. Health... Krugman. Bad News for IV Estimation....Keep the Federal Reserve I Love Alive-Greg Mankiw. Peaceful Coexistence 2.0-Dani Rodrik...

#noted

What Are Our Plans?

The Council on Foreign Relations asked me to come be on a panel on a small conference they were running on the "democratic recession". They were even willing to spring for a JetBlue mint-class lie-flat bed-seat on a nonstop. So I went Video here. Transcript here.

But is there���or, rather, in what sense is there���a "democratic recession"?

I think you need to separate out three different meanings of democracy:

Alexis de Tocqueville���s democracy: social democracy���where everybody can stand on their own two feet and look everyone else in the eye, rather than lowering their gaze and tugging their forelock.

John Judis���s thing: public-square democracy���where everybody can stand up, pick up a megaphone, speak, and actually be heard.

Real, political democracy���where the material and ideal interests of the people are properly represented and aggregated in the formation of the decisions that we collectively make as we govern our own destinies.

The first two���social inclusion, and the ability to speak and feel that you have been heard���are important and are valid. But they are not the Big Enchilada.

The Big Enchilada is a working, functional political democracy in which we are free because we all obey the good laws that we have chosen and prescribed to ourselves.

In November 1787, eighty blocks south of the Council on Foreign Relations's Harold Pratt House, Alexander Hamilton wrote to the middle classes of New York that "the history of the petty republics of Greece and Italy produces feelings of horror and disgust.... Small intervals of felicity are overwhelmed by the tempestuous waves of sedition and party rage..." Alexander Hamilton promised the middle-class voters of New York that American democracy would not turn into a s---show if they ratified his Constitution: "advances in the science of politics", he said, had enabled "republican remedies for the diseases of republican government".

But now it looks as though the warranty period on Alexander's "republican remedies" has run out. Certainly as the rest of the world looks at us���certainly as we look at ourselves���now, in this age of Brexit and Trump, nobody thinks that the Anglo-Saxon democracies have it right with respect to this Big Enchilada of political democracy. "What plans do you in America have to fix your broken political system?" China's Min Zhu asked he���and that was back in 2015.

Madison and Hamilton's plans are running out. We need new plans. What are our new plans going to be?

From: Council on Foreign Relations: The Future of Democracy Symposium: Session Two: Economics, Identity, and the Democratic Recession

#politicaleconomy #history #politics #highighted

Marshall Burke, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, and Edward Migue...

Marshall Burke, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, and Edward Miguel: Sell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets: "Small-scale farmers are commonly observed to ���sell low and buy high,��� rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya... credit market imperfections.... Timely access to credit... increasing farm revenues and generating a return on investment of 29%.... In contrast to existing experimental work, the results indicate a setting in which microcredit can improve firm profitability, and suggest that GE effects can substantially shape microcredit���s effectiveness. In particular, failure to consider these GE effects could lead to underestimates of the social welfare benefits of microcredit interventions...

#noted

BREXIT!!: Ian Dunt: Week in Review: The Frazzlfication En...

BREXIT!!: Ian Dunt: Week in Review: The Frazzlfication Ends Now. For a Little Bit.: "On January 15th, Theresa May's Brexit deal was defeated by a historic margin. Immediately afterwards, Jeremy Corbyn called a no-confidence vote, which he lost. Then the Malthouse Compromise was born, as a kind of release valve for MPs' desperate stupidity. The government responded by whipping in support of its evil twin, the Brady amendment, and won, thereby sabotaging its own negotiating strategy. Labour published a new Brexit strategy, which looked suspiciously like Norway Plus but was different to it in ways they were unable or unwilling to describe. The government then proceeded to lose a vote on the policy which MPs had forced on it the week before, driving British politics into a kind of post-modern chasm in which David Lynch became the creative director of parliament. Then a group of Labour and Tory MPs split from the party to form the Independent Group. May announced she would request a dual extension of Article 50-short in the case of a deal and long if not. She later went back on this and requested only the short extension. She also secured an update to her deal with the Europeans which didn't really change anything. MPs promptly and unsurprisingly rejected it again. In response, the government put forward a convoluted motion on no-deal, whipped MPs to oppose an amendment which simplified it, lost, and had to therefore whip against its own motion even though it amounted to the exact policy it said it was pursuing anyway. Then anyone who still believed in parliamentary democracy decided maybe it wasn't such a great idea after all. Soon enough John Bercow popped up and refused to allow May to bring her deal back to the Commons a third time unless it was changed. May secured her first extension of Article 50, but then MPs passed an amendment taking control of the Brexit process, triggering a new bout of constitutional chaos. The Brexit process became a kind of executive dual carriageway, with the government pursing one strategy and parliament another. In a bid to get MPs to back her deal, May offered her own resignation as an incentive, seemingly oblivious to how logically and morally broken that was as a strategy. MPs, for their part, held a series of indicative votes and found no majority. May stripped her deal in two to get it past Bercow, put it before the Commons again, and lost again. MPs held more indicative votes and still could not find a majority. Pitiful broken toys scattered everywhere. May announced she would seek another Article 50 extension. Parliament passed a bill, independently of government, forcing her to do the thing she said she would do, given that her reputation for reliability at this stage was frankly not what it was. And then, finally, the EU offered an extension to October 31st. And now here we are. Three months later and about twelve hundred years older...

#noted

Ellora Derenoncourt: Atlantic Slavery���s Impact on Europ...

Ellora Derenoncourt: Atlantic Slavery���s Impact on European and British Economic Development: "The economics literature on Atlantic slavery attests to its negative long-run impact on development outcomes in Africa and the Americas. What was slavery���s impact on Europe? In this paper, I test the hypothesis that slavery contributed to modern economic growth in Europe using data on European participation in the Atlantic slave trade. I estimate a panel fixed effects model and show that the number of slaving voyages is positively associated with European city growth from 1600-1850. A 10% increase in slaving voyages is associated with a 1.2% increase in port city population. Using a newly created dataset on British port-level trade, I show that for the UK, this effect is distinct from that of general overseas trade, which also increased during this period...

#noted