J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 158

A very nice look indeed at the current state of our broke...

A very nice look indeed at the current state of our broken antitrust system���including an excellent retrospective on the historical process by which we got here:

Andrew I. Gavil: Crafting a Monopolization Law for Our Time: "If Section 2 is to be an effective tool for policing and deterring anti-competitive conduct in today���s economy, then it will need to be adjusted for the needs of our time. But first it is important to understand how Section 2 became so limited in scope.... Choosing the language of the Sherman Act, the Congress of 1890 turned to common law, which had long prohibited 'unreasonable restraints of trade'... a statute that included prohibitions of concerted action (Section 1), as well as monopolization, attempts to monopolize, and conspiracy to monopolize (Section 2)...

#noted

Why it is that stress is so long-run debilitating is some...

Why it is that stress is so long-run debilitating is something I have never understood���especially since the forms of stress we face are not those that ought to induce a fight-or-flight use-up-the-organism's-resources response. Is it that our brains are just too good at making long-run peril real, and then transmitting that to the rest of the body? But it is clear that, here in America, racial discrimination appears doubly poisonous:

Kyle Moore: Linking Racial Stratification and Poor Health Outcomes to Economic Inequality in the United States: "Racial disparities in life expectancy and incidences of sickness... are only partially explained by differences in access to economic resources.... I investigate the role that stress plays in increasing the risk of hypertension and inflammation among older black and white Americans... exposure to potential psychosocial stressors in excess of economic resources that could mitigate or offset the effects of those stressors���modifying an approach taken by the American Psychological Association...

#noted

Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: Descendants of Cerdic to Ethelred Son of Ethelwulf Son of Egbert

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): Origins of Wessex: "A.D. 495. This year came two leaders into Britain, Cerdic and Cynric his son, with five ships, at a place that is called Cerdic's-ore. And they fought with the Welsh the same day. Then he died, and his son Cynric succeeded to the government, and held it six and twenty winters. Then he died; and Ceawlin, his son, succeeded, who reigned seventeen years. Then he died; and Ceol succeeded to the government, and reigned five years. When he died, Ceolwulf, his brother, succeeded, and reigned seventeen years. Their kin goeth to Cerdic. Then succeeded Cynebils, Ceolwulf's brother's son, to the kingdom; and reigned one and thirty winters. And he first of West-Saxon kings received baptism...

...Then succeeded Cenwall, who was the son of Cynegils, and reigned one and thirty winters. Then held Sexburga, his queen, the government one year after him. Then succeeded Escwine to the kingdom, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and held it two years. Then succeeded Centwine, the son of Cynegils, to the kingdom of the West-Saxons, and reigned nine years. Then succeeded Ceadwall to the government, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and held it three years. Then succeeded Ina to the kingdom of the West-Saxons, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned thirty-seven winters. Then succeeded Ethelheard, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned sixteen years. Then succeeded Cuthred, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned sixteen winters. Then succeeded Sigebriht, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned one year. Then succeeded Cynwulf, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned one and thirty winters. Then succeeded Brihtric, whose kin goeth to Cerdic, and reigned sixteen years. Then succeeded Egbert to the kingdom, and held it seven and thirty winters, and seven months. Then succeeded Ethelwulf, his son, and reigned eighteen years and a half. Ethelwulf was the son of Egbert, Egbert of Ealmund, Ealmund of Eafa, Eafa of Eoppa, Eoppa of Ingild, Ingild of Cenred (Ina of Cenred, Cuthburga of Cenred, and Cwenburga of Cenred), Cenred of Ceolwald, Ceolwald of Cuthwulf, Cuthwulf of Cuthwine, Cuthwine of Celm, Celm of Cynric, Cynric of Creoda, Creoda of Cerdic.

Then succeeded Ethelbald, the son of Ethelwulf, to the kingdom, and held it five years. Then succeeded Ethelbert, his brother, and reigned five years. Then succeeded Ethelred, his brother, to the kingdom, and held it five years...

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle

Paul Krugman makes the point, which I believe is correct,...

Paul Krugman makes the point, which I believe is correct, that we should not be fearing robots and AI yet���that while they may, and while I think it highly likely that they will, pose society very hard problems of income distribution in the future, there is no sign that they are at work yet on any significant scale.

Our income distribution problems today are generated by our politics, and by the resulting economic mismanagement that our politics has produced:

Paul Krugman: Don���t Blame Robots for Low Wages: "Participants just assumed that robots are a big part of the problem���that machines are taking away the good jobs, or even jobs in general. For the most part this wasn���t even presented as a hypothesis, just as part of what everyone knows.... So it seems like a good idea to point out that in this case what everyone knows isn���t true.... We do have a big problem���but it has very little to do with technology, and a lot to do with politics and power.... Technological disruption... isn���t a new phenomenon. Still, is it accelerating? Not according to the data. If robots really were replacing workers en masse, we���d expect to see the amount of stuff produced by each remaining worker���labor productivity���soaring..... Technological change is an old story. What���s new is the failure of workers to share in the fruits of that technological change...

#noted

Martin Wolf has an aggressive thumbs-down on Facebook's L...

Martin Wolf has an aggressive thumbs-down on Facebook's Libra payments system. Basically, it is "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me". Facebook's claim that it is built on 'blockchain technology' seems simply wrong, and a grift���a second-order grift given that 'blockchain technology' is already a grift. Plus "Facebook has been grossly irresponsible over its impact on our democracies. It cannot obviously be trusted with our payments systems.... Beware":

Martin Wolf: Facebook Enters Dangerous Waters With Libra Cryptocurrency: "Facebook has been grossly irresponsible over its impact on our democracies. It cannot obviously be trusted with our payments systems. Facebook has an answer: it has just one vote in the��Libra Association.... But Facebook seems likely to dominate Libra���s technical development. That will surely give it predominant influence.... Quite apart from doubts about the sponsor, a new global payment system must be evaluated for its technical stability, impact on monetary and financial stability (not least in developing countries) and openness to fraudsters, criminals and terrorists. Big questions also arise about concentrations of power, should the venture succeed.... I cannot judge the technical stability of the proposed system. The claim that it is based on 'blockchain' technology��seems rather questionable.... There is indeed potential for greatly improved payment systems. But the emergence of a payment system on a network of Facebook���s scale would raise some huge questions.... This would be true even if the lead sponsor were not Facebook. But it is. So beware...

#noted

Umair Haque: How Online Radicalization Is Destabilizing D...

Umair Haque: How Online Radicalization Is Destabilizing Democracy: "They���d regressed back to their little selves. A scalpel no one could see had somehow excised the adult parts of their brain responsible for reason, wisdom, and change. And that was when I really began to be troubled. It felt to me as if an info-bomb had gone off... radiating disinformation, misinformation, and folly.... I���d never seen minds change so suddenly, fast, or extremely.... So even then I warned that to use social media was to put yourself squarely in the explosion radius of this info-bomb. Today we understand all this a little bit more. There really was an info-bomb���weaponized, military grade propaganda was used against whole nations, with the encouragement, and even the guidance, of social media companies, while political leaders and media were asleep at the wheel. What was the goal? What was the result?... Once-sensible people came to believe foolish and strange things. Some turned into religious zealots. Some turned into xenophobes and authoritarians and bigots. The vector of this radicalization was often the mosque, the TV station, or even the bookshop.... Some significant portion of society has now been thoroughly radicalized. They believe in outlandish and foolish things. They have become ignorant and blind and petty and easily provoked. That isn���t an insult���they can undo all that. It is just an observation of empirical reality. A major social question for the West now is: how does it undo the radicalization of the last few years? Can it? How does one undo military-grade propaganda at a social scale?...

#noted

Dan Drezner: The Trump Foreign Policy Is All Hat and No C...

Dan Drezner: The Trump Foreign Policy Is All Hat and No Cattle: "Trump did not make the trade war worse. What was actually agreed to, however, did not seem like a big win.... Kim Jong Un... by going to the DMZ, Trump has signaled his comfort with the status quo. This puts far less pressure on Kim to make tangible concessions.... As Trump continues to promise great deals without actually completing any, other actors in world politics are not standing still. In the same week, European Union negotiators inked trade deals with Vietnam and Mercosur. Even as the United States prosecutes trade wars against China, India and the European Union, other countries are signing trade deals or lowering tariffs in ways that put U.S. producers at a disadvantage. But hey, Trump can say that Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Mohammed bin Salman are his friends. That���s something, right? Right?...

#noted

Michael Andersen: "Oregon just voted to legalize fourplex...

Michael Andersen: "Oregon just voted to legalize fourplexes in all areas of every large city, duplexes on almost every urban lot. A historic achievement, first bill of its kind in US history.... before I drink it's extremely important to thank @TinaKotek, its architect & champion; @ShemiaFagan, who carried it across the floor; @Voices4ORHomes, builders of a mighty anti-displacement toolbox; @1000oregon, visionary anti-sprawl/pro-housing warriors; & many others. Democratic caucus: 14 Y, 4 N. Republican caucus: 3 Y, 5 N. Housing is popular...

#noted

Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens S��dekum, and N...

Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens S��dekum, and Nicole Woessner: Robots and Firms: "Our study is based on firm-level data from Spain, a country with one of the highest robot density levels per worker in Europe. The data come from the Encuesta Sobre Estrategias Empresariales (ESEE), an annual survey of around 1,900 Spanish manufacturing firms.... We reveal significant job losses in non-adopting firms. Our estimates imply that 10% of jobs in non-adopting firms are destroyed when the share of sales attributable to robot-using firms in their industries increases from zero to one half. The same logic applies to changes in output and survival probabilities.... Aggregate productivity gains are partly driven by substantial intra-industry reallocation of market shares and resources following a more widespread diffusion of robot technology, and a polarization between high-productivity robot adopters and low-productivity non-adopters...

#noted

Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: Origins of Wessex

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): Origins of Wessex: "A.D. 477: This year came Ella to Britain, with his three sons, Cymen, and Wlenking, and Cissa, in three ships; landing at a place that is called Cymenshore. There they slew many of the Welsh; and some in flight they drove into the wood that is called Andredsley...

...A.D. 482. This year the blessed Abbot Benedict shone in this world, by the splendour of those virtues which the blessed Gregory records in the book of Dialogues.

A.D. 485. This year Ella fought with the Welsh nigh Mecred's-Burnsted. A.D. 488. This year Esc succeeded to the kingdom; and was king of the men of Kent twenty-four winters. A.D. 490. This year Ella and Cissa besieged the city of Andred, and slew all that were therein; nor was one Briten left there afterwards.

A.D. 495. This year came two leaders into Britain, Cerdic and Cynric his son, with five ships, at a place that is called Cerdic's-ore. And they fought with the Welsh the same day.

A.D. 495. This year came two leaders into Britain, Cerdic and Cynric his son, with five ships, at a place that is called Cerdic's-ore. And they fought with the Welsh the same day...

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle