J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 122

Let me endorse this from Larry Summers: Hailey Waller: Ec...

Let me endorse this from Larry Summers: Hailey Waller: Economy at Riskiest Point in a Decade, Lawrence Summers Says: "Former treasury secretary calls U.S. trade conflicts ���foolish���. Economy to be ���worse off��� based on current policies: Summers: The U.S. and world economies are at their riskiest moment since the global financial crisis a decade ago as trade tensions continue to grow, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Sunday. Summers spoke on CNN���s 'Fareed Zakaria GPS' about what he called a 'sadomasochistic and foolish trade conflict' the U.S. has engaged with China under President Donald Trump. 'We are losing very substantial amounts in terms of uncertainty, reduced investment, reduced job creation, for the sake of benefits that are very unlikely to be of substantial magnitude.... I don���t think there���s any question that American workers are going to be poorer, American companies are going to be less profitable, and the American economy is going to be worse off because of the course we���re on'...

#noted #2019-09-12

The interest rate is an optimal-control variable. Almost ...

The interest rate is an optimal-control variable. Almost always, in an optimal control problem���like in steering a boat���you are doing one of two things (1) as much as you can (wheel hard left or hard right), or (2) staying the course (wheel center, unsure whether your next move will be to nudge it left or right, but certainly your next move will be small. Only when something special is going on���like following a narrow channel, or passing a reef���do you tend to deviate from that rule. The Fed knows that its next move is highly likely to be a rate cut. I see no reef. I see no island. Why has the rate cut not happened already? What is the reason?: Tim Duy: Gearing Up For A Rate Cut: "One take on the numbers is fairly positive. The economy continues to generate jobs at a pace sufficient to either lower unemployment further or encourage more people to enter the labor force. The jump in wage growth might even suggest that the economy is finally bumping up against full capacity and that is the primary culprit behind slower job growth. And maybe the August jobs number is revised up. Another take is less positive.The job market has clearly slowed, and, after accounting for the Census hires, may have slowed very close to the point where unemployment at best holds steady. That significant downshift in momentum is very worrisome. The second derivative here is not our friend. Moreover, don���t take too much comfort in the stronger wage numbers as that can easily be a lagging variable; wages might not take a hit until unemployment starts rising.... GDP tracking measures from the New York and Atlanta Federal Reserve Banks are both at a below trend 1.5% for the third quarter. New York is looking at 1.1% growth for the fourth quarter. Most definitely nothing to write home about...

#noted

Comment of the Day: Erik Lund: This is fun! When it comes...

Comment of the Day: Erik Lund: This is fun! When it comes to Santa Claus, there's one thing I know for sure. He's the last great follower of Ayn Rand. When it comes to J. R. R. Tolkien, there's one thing I know for sure. He kept it brief! When it comes to Erich von Daniken, there's one thing I know for sure. He's one of the great scholars of our time! When it comes to General Custer, there's one thing I know for sure. He's one of the Great Captains. When it comes to me, there's one thing I know for sure. I provide hours of high quality comment on this blog...

#commentoftheday

Jeb Bush: "When it comes to my brother, there's one thing...

Jeb Bush: "When it comes to my brother, there's one thing I know for sure. He kept us safe."

#noted

Per Kurowski: We Need Worthy and Decent Unemployments: "T...

Per Kurowski: We Need Worthy and Decent Unemployments: "Two decades ago, concerned about growing unemployment, half in jest, in an Op-Ed in El Universal of Caracas, I asked something like whether it was better to have one hundred thousand unemployed running each on his side as broody hens, or to seat them all in a huge human circle where everyone would scratch the backs of one of his neighbors, charging a lot for his services, while his own back was scratched by his other neighbor, at an equally high price. The tragedy is that this question seems to me now less and less hypothetical...

#noted

Comment of the Day: Ebenezer Scrooge: "I don't see it. Th...

Comment of the Day: Ebenezer Scrooge: "I don't see it. The various wings of the Republican Party, ever since Nixon, have always been a coalition of losers from the democratic process who realized that they can each win in their respective sphere if they just gang up with the other losers. They never have any respect for the others' spheres. The neocons always knew their allies were evil plutocrats, racists, and Talibans. The Talibans always knew their allies were godless plutocrats and Jews. (Some Talibans are racists: others are not.) The racists always knew their allies were godbags, moneybags, and big beautiful mosaic types. But each of these groups knew that they needed the others to get their own goals. And they still know it. On this backdrop, the squabbles of a few intellectuals are irrelevant...

#commentoftheday

Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: The Comet-Star

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): The Comet-Star: "A.D. 678. This year appeared the comet-star in August, and shone every morning, during three months, like a sunbeam...

...Bishop Wilfrid being driven from his bishopric by King Everth, two bishops were consecrated in his stead, Bosa over the Deirians, and Eata over the Bernicians. About the same time also Eadhed was consecrated bishop over the people of Lindsey, being the first in that division...

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle

Liveblogging: The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: MOAR About the Property and Lands of Medhamsted

The Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (J.A. Giles and J. Ingram trans.): MOAR About the Property and Lands of Medhamsted: "A.D. 675. This year Wulfere, the son of Penda, and Escwin, the son of Cenfus, fought at Bedwin. The same year died Wulfere, and Ethelred succeeded to the government...

...In his time sent he to Rome Bishop Wilfrid to the pope that then was, called Agatho, and told him by word and by letter, how his brothers Peada and Wulfere, and the Abbot Saxulf, had wrought a minster, called Medhamsted; and that they had freed it, against king and against bishop, from every service; and he besought him that he would confirm it with his writ and with his blessing. And the pope sent then his writ to England, thus saying:

I Agatho, Pope of Rome, greet well the worthy Ethelred, king of the Mercians, and the Archbishop Theodorus of Canterbury, and Saxulf, the bishop of the Mercians, who before was abbot, and all the abbots that are in England; God's greeting and my blessing.

I have heard the petition of King Ethelred, and of the Archbishop Theodorus, and of the Bishop Saxulf, and of the Abbot Cuthbald; and I will it, that it in all wise be as you have spoken it. And I ordain, in behalf of God, and of St. Peter, and of all saints, and of every hooded head, that neither king, nor bishop, nor earl, nor any man whatever, have any claim, or gable, or gild, or levy, or take any service of any kind, from the abbey of Medhamsted.

I command also, that no shire-bishop be so bold as to hold an ordination or consecration within this abbacy, except the abbot intreat him, nor have there any claim to proxies, or synodals, or anything whatever of any kind. And I will, that the abbot be holden for legate of Rome over all that island; and whatever abbot is there chosen by the monks that he be consecrated by the Archbishop of Canterbury. I will and decree, that, whatever man may have made a vow to go to Rome, and cannot perform it, either from infirmity, or for his lord's need, or from poverty, or from any other necessity of any kind whatever, whereby he cannot come thither, be he of England, or of whatever other island he be, he may come to that minster of Medhamsted, and have the same forgiveness of Christ and St. Peter, and of the abbot, and of the monks, that he should have if he went to Rome.

Now bid I thee, brother Theodorus, that thou let it be proclaimed through all England, that a synod be gathered, and this writ be read and observed.

Also I tell thee, Bishop Saxulf, that, as thou desirest it, that the minster be free, so I forbid thee, and all the bishops that after thee come, from Christ and from all his saints, that ye have no demand from that minster, except so much as the abbot will. Now will I say in a word, that, whoso holdeth this writ and this decree, then be he ever dwelling with God Almighty in the kingdom of heaven. And whoso breaketh it, then be he excommunicated, and thrust down with Judas, and with all the devils in hell, except he come to repentance. Amen!

This writ sent the Pope Agatho, and a hundred and twenty-five bishops, by Wilfrid, Archbishop of York, to England. This was done after our Lord's Nativity 680, the sixth year of King Ethelred. Then the king commanded the Archbishop Theodorus, that he should appoint a general Wittenmoot at the place called Hatfield.

When they were there collected, then he allowed the letter to be read that the pope sent thither; and all ratified and confirmed it. Then said the king:

All things that my brother Peada, and my brother Wulfere, and my sisters, Kyneburga and Kyneswitha, gave and granted to St. Peter and the abbot, these I will may stand; and I will in my day increase it, for their souls and for my soul. Now give I St. Peter to-day into his minster, Medhamsted, these lands, and all that thereto lyeth; that is, Bredon, Repings, Cadney, Swineshead, Hanbury, Lodeshall, Scuffanhall, Cosford, Stratford, Wattleburn, Lushgard, Ethelhun-island, Bardney. These lands I give St. Peter just as freely as I possessed them myself; and so, that none of my successors take anything therefrom. Whoso doeth it, have he the curse of the Pope of Rome, and the curse of all bishops, and of all those that are witnesses here. And this I confirm with the token of Christ. (+)

I Theodorus, Archbishop of Canterbury, am witness to this charter of Medhamsted; and I ratify it with my hand, and I excommunicate all that break anything thereof; and I bless all that hold it. (+)

I Wilfrid, Archbishop of York, am witness to this charter; and I ratify this same curse. (+)

I Saxulf, who was first abbot, and now am bishop, I give my curse, and that of all my successors, to those who break this.

I Ostritha, Ethelred's queen, confirm it.

I Adrian, legate, ratify it.

I Putta, Bishop of Rochester, subscribe it.

I Waldhere, Bishop of London, confirm it.

I Cuthbald, abbot, ratify it; so that, whoso breaketh it, have he the cursing of all bishops and of all christian folk. Amen...

#liveblogging #history #anglosaxonchronicle

Nice piece on the origins of the alt-right: John Ganz: Th...

Nice piece on the origins of the alt-right: John Ganz: The Year the Clock Broke: "Murray Rothbard loved The Godfather... even thought that the Godfather reflected his own worldview: 'Organized crime is essentially anarcho-capitalist, a productive industry struggling to govern itself.'... As early as the Reagan years, [Samuel] Francis called for Middle Americans to ally with a populist, 'Caesarist' presidency to accomplish their revolution, just as the French bourgeoisie aligned themselves with Napoleon.... He didn���t know it yet, but his Bonaparte was right there the whole time. On November, 9, 1992... New York magazine put Donald Trump on the cover...

#noted

Comment of the Day: RW: "Cultures do not articulate autho...

Comment of the Day: RW: "Cultures do not articulate authoritarianism the same everywhere; e.g., Trump/Johnsonism appears less 1984 and more Brave New World: 'What Orwell feared were those who would ban books. What Huxley feared was that there would be no reason to ban a book, for there would be no one who wanted to read one. Orwell feared those who would deprive us of information. Huxley feared those who would give us so much that we would be reduced to passivity and egoism. Orwell feared that the truth would be concealed from us. Huxley feared the truth would be drowned in a sea of irrelevance. Orwell feared we would become a captive culture. Huxley feared we would become a trivial culture." ���Neil Postman...

#commentoftheday