Marc Abrahams's Blog, page 123

Predicting whether to rely on public health predictions

About predictions:

(1) There are still lots of unknown numbers plugged into any calculation about public health.

(2) Any calculation necessarily ignores other aspects happening simultaneously with what the calculation calculates is happening.

(3) You can also, always, do this ancient calculation: Plan for the worst (do NOT neglect Murphy’s Law), AND hope for the best.

Podcast Episode #206: “Flatulence in Dogs”

Flatulence in Dogs, the Real-Life Wizard of Oz, Triskadekaphobia When People Buy a House, Boys Will Be Boys, Why Your Doctor Should Smell, Soft is Hard, You Bastard, and Personal Space at the Beach.

In episode #206, Marc Abrahams shows some unfamiliar research studies to Nicole Sharp, Robin Abrahams, Melissa Franklin, Chris Cotsapas, Jean Berko Gleason, Bill Hoston and Andrew Berry. Dramatic readings and reactions ensue.

Remember, our Patreon donors, on most levels, get access to each podcast episode before it is made public.

1. Nicole Sharp encounters:

“Flatulence in Pet Dogs,” by B.R. Jones, K.S. Jones, K. Turner, and B. Rogatski, New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 1998 Oct;46(5):191-3.

“Administration of Charcoal, Yucca Schidigera, and Zinc Acetate to Reduce Malodorous Flatulence in dogs,” Catriona J. Giffard, Stella B. Collins, Neil C. Stoodley, Richard F. Butterwick, and Roger M. Batt, The Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, vol. 218, no. 6, March 15, 2001, pp. 892-6.

2. Robin and Marc Abrahams encounter:

The Enigmatic Dr. Nakamats.

3. Melissa Franklin encounters:

“Triskaidekaphobia and North American Residential Real Estate Prices,” James E. Larsen, International Real Estate Review, vol. 18, no. 3, 2015, pp. 317-329.

4. Chris Cotsapas encounters:

“The Adaptive Function of Masturbation in a Promiscuous African Ground Squirrel,” Jane M. Waterman, PLoS ONE, vol. 5, no. 9, 2010.

“Differences in Breast Shape Preferences Between Plastic Surgeons and Patients Seeking Breast Augmentation,” H.C. Hsia and G.J. Thomson, Plastic & Reconstructive Surgery, vol. 112, no. 1, July 2003, pp. 312–20.

“Changes in Pornography-Seeking Behaviors Following Political Elections: An Examination of the Challenge Hypothesis,” Patrick M. Markey and Charlotte N. Markey, Evolution and Human Behavior, vol. 31, no. 6, November 2010, pp. 442–6.

5. Jean Berko Gleason encounters:

“Scratch and Sniff. The Dynamic Duo,” W.Z. Stitt and A. Goldsmith, Archives of Dermatology, vol. 131, no. 9, September 1995, pp. 997-9.

6. Bill Hoston encounters:

“The Physical Burdens of Secrecy,” M.L. Slepian, E.J. Masicampo, N.R. Toosi, and N. Ambady, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, vol. 141, 2012, pp. 619–24.

“Big Secrets Do Not Necessarily Cause Hills to Appear Steeper,” Etienne P. LeBel and Christopher J. Wilbur, Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 21(3), 2014, 696-700.

“Passing Encounters: Patterns of Recognition and Avoidance in Pedestrians,” Miles L. Patterson, A. Webb, and W. Schwartz, Basic and Applied Social Psychology, vol. 24, 2002, pp. 57–66.

“Through a Glass Darkly: Effects of Smiling and Visibility on Recognition and Avoidance in Passing Encounters,” Miles L. Patterson and Mark E. Tubbs, Western Journal of Communication, vol. 69, no. 3, July 2005, pp. 219–31.

7. Robin Abrahams encounters:

“You Bastard: A Narrative Exploration of the Experience of Indignation within Organizations,” David Sims, Organization Studies, vol. 26, no. 11, 2005, pp. 1625-40.

8. Andrew Berry encounters:

“Territorial Spacing on a Beach,” Sociometry, Julian J. Edney and Nancy L. Jordan-Edney, vol. 37, 1974, pp. 92-104.

“Territorial Spacing on a Beach Revisited: A Cross-National Exploration,” H.W. Smith, Social Psychology Quarterly, vol. 44, no. 2, 1981, pp. 132-7.

“Personal Space and Stimulus Intensity at a Southern California Amusement Park,” Paul D. Nesbitt and Girard Steven, Sociometry, vol. 37, no. 1, 1974, pp. 105-15.

“How are Distances Between Individuals of Grazing Cows Explained by a Statistical Model?” Masae Shiyomi, Ecological Modelling, vol. 172, 2004, pp. 87–94.

“How are distances between grazing cows determined: A case study,” Masae Shiyomi, Applied entomology and zoology 39, no. 4 (2004): 575-581.

Islam, Tamanna, Eiki Fukuda, Masae Shiyomi, Molla Rahman Shaibur, Shigenao Kawai, and Mikinori Tsuiki. “Effects of Feces on Spatial Distribution Patterns of Grazed Grassland Communities.” Agricultural Sciences in China 9, no. 1 (2010): 121-129.

Bruce Petschek, Audio Engineer

John Shedler, Audio Engineer

Seth Gliksman, Production Assistant

Available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Google Podcasts, AntennaPod, BeyondPod and elsewhere!

Dr. Nakamats is always on the job

Dr. Nakamats has another new invention.

Eating gold: ok or not ok? [study]

Is it a good idea to eat gold (in the form of gold leaf)? Prof. Koichi Imai, D.D.S., Ph.D of the Dept. of Biomaterials, Osaka Dental University, Japan (and other places), is of the opinion that the answer might well be ‘no’. Pointing out that although :

“Gold leaf flakes are considered to pass through the body and excreted without reaction with digestive juices.”

– there is a possible, and previously underplayed, potential problem :

“ [..] small gold leaf particles are likely to stay in the human digestive tract for a long time.”

Therefore :

“Ingestion of pure gold as food is not useful for humans, and the risk of carcinogenesis is considered. It is necessary to develop a safe edible gold leaf alloy which is completely dissolved in the digestive tract.”

See: Concern of carcinogenic risk of eating gold leaf (gold foil)-in relation to asbestos carcinogenesis mechanism  in Nano Biomedicine, 2018 Volume 10 Issue 1 26-30.

Photo Credit : “Hamachi” by Wojohowitz is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

Research research by Martin Gardiner

Saying “FACE”, in gatherings in pandemic times

How to get people to pay more attention to NOT touching their eyes, nostrils, or mouth?

We invited people, in a gathering, to say “FACE” whenever they saw a speaker touching a hand to their face. And most of those people said “FACE”, cheerily—appreciating that they were talking to themselves as much as to the person who was at that moment doing the face-touching.

You can experiment with this tiny technique, if you have to be in meetings of any kind during this time of pandemic. (If you work in a hospital or other healthcare setting, the technique might be a gentle, smiley-face inducing way to get patients and their families to alter their eyes/nostrils/mouth touching habits.)

Here’s how to do it:

Invite the group to do it. (Please don’t order. Invite, invitingly.)
Immediately ask the group to say “FACE” together, once or twice, so they will experience how it works.
Consciously touch your hand to your face every few minutes during your talk, to give the group experience in saying “FACE”.

The technique—inviting people in a group to say “FACE”—is gentle, yet firm. Please feel free to try it.

The Manchester Experiment

We first tried this in a show at the University of Manchester, UK, on Wednesday evening, March 11, 2020. It worked. People paid more attention to NOT touching their eyes, nostrils, or mouth

This photo was taken by Herbert Crepaz, the final speaker in the show, as he was watching the first speaker speak.

That show, with an audience of 500 or so people, may have been the last public gathering to happen at the university until the corona-virus pandemic has burned itself out.

That show also was the first, and as it turned out, the only show on this year’s Ig Nobel Euro (and Brextannia) tour.

Clarifying the Advice

As mentioned above, “face touching” advice is mostly about touching eyes, nostrils, and mouth.

Forehead, cheeks, and chin are located, metaphorically and perhaps also physically, on a slippery slope to those eyes, nostrils, and mouth.

Here’s an illustration from “Face touching: A frequent habit that has implications for hand hygiene,” one of the few biomedical papers specifically about face touching:

A Science Question: How Medically Effective Is the Advice?

How good—good at preventing the spread of disease—is the advice to not touch hand to eyes, nostrils, or mouth?

We asked several biomedical researchers in three “the” countries (the USA, the UK, and The Netherlands). Each of them is a renowned physician who both treats patients AND does research. Each is based at a medical institution widely recognized as being among the world’s very best.

Here are representative opinions from two of those physician/researchers:

OPINION: “It is critical. Face touching—at all orifices and the eyes—needs emphasis as a medium for transmission of infectious diseases. Viruses are in or near facial orifices normally along with various bacteria and fungi. Transmission of virus from hand to facial orifice is a major route of infection. CDC is not just giving people something to do…. like witchcraft. Washing hands and not touching face will not end the pandemic, but the experts inform us the the disease may be slowed considerably.”

OPINION: “The Infectious Disease people I work with do seem to believe that this is correct advice, although I don’t know the evidence base. Nearly everyone I have discussed this with says, not that it isn’t effective—just that it is impossible. You have probably seen this compilation of news video of officials touching their faces.”

The entire above discussion is about the question: How medically effective (a lot? a little? hard to quantify?) is one very specific piece of medical advice.

Some things, many things, in fact, are difficult to measure.

And now for something completely different: Other, Aggressively Bad, Dangerous Advice

Let’s now look at some OTHER advice, that comes from far less reliable, but very loud and visible, sources.

Some of the OTHER medical advice raises—or should raise—a very different question.

That OTHER advice begs this question: How can you recognize advice that is aggressively bad, and dangerous?

There is plenty of aggressively bad, and dangerous advice being spewed by particular public officials.

And there is plenty of aggressively bad, and dangerous advice being spewed by particular propaganda organizations that disguise their propaganda, calling it “news.”

A virus-induced quick end to this spring’s Ig Nobel Euro (and Brexitannia) tour

This spring’s Ig Nobel Euro (and Brexitannia) Tour ended much sooner than planned.

Because of travel precautions and prohibitions related to the corona virus, we and our host institutions, in the many European and Brexitannian countries, cancelled the Ig Nobel events. (Most of those institutions are also canceling most or all of their other public events.)

We did do one show — last night at the University of Manchester. The performers and the audience, together, created an almost-magical night. As it turns out, that was the entire tour. The Manchester event was livestreamed. The university will be putting the recording online.

The tour was going to be seven weeks long, about the same length as is most years. A large number of people, in many places, put in much thought, time, and work to prepare the events. Thank you to each of those many people! And thank you to everyone who was planning to come participate in whatever ways (as performers, as spectators, as paper airplane enthusiasts, etc.) in the shows. Very sorry that mother nature was uncooperative this year.

Here’s hoping that each and every one of those postponed events happens, some time in the not too-far-off future.

Volcanic, kinda sorta

Ten years ago, the Ig Nobel tour ran into unexpected complications when a volcano in Iceland erupted and (among its other effects) led to the shutdown of just about all air traffic in Europe. We are now guessing that every ten years the tour will be a little more interesting—logistically—than in the intervening years.

 

Shortening of this year’s Ig Nobel Euro (and Brexitannia) tour

Because of travel precautions and prohibitions related to the corona virus, pretty much all our host institutions, in the many European and Brexitannian countries, cancelled the Ig Nobel events (as well as cancelling most or all of their other public events).

We did do one show — last night at the University of Manchester. That was wonderful. As it turns out, that was the entire tour. The Manchester event was livestreamed. The university will be putting the recording  online.

Thank you to each of the many people who worked hard to prepare the tour events. Very sorry that mother nature was uncooperative this year.

Here’s hoping that each and every one of those postponed events happens, some time in the not too-far-off future.

 

Music as a Hand-Washing Educational Tool, Now and Then

Danial Kheirikhah, a cleanly actor, shows, in this video how to wash one’s hands with the aid of a recording of a symphony orchestra:

An Earlier Experiment with Kids

A related—but not identical—technique has previously been shown to have some degree of merit for children.

For details about that, see the study “The Effects of Music as a Cue in Maintaining Handwashing in Preschool Children,” Shirley A. Kramer, Journal of Music Therapy, vol. 15, no. 3, Fall 1978, pp. 136–144.

Kramer, at the University of Kansas, reports: “Twenty-one preschool children were first taught to wash their hands as a 10­-step procedure. They received 10 training sessions in which they washed their hands with the aid of the “Hand­washing Song.” … The music-alone condition did not prove to be effective as a maintenance procedure. A complete training song, however, can be as effective as verbal reminders in maintenance.”

Wildflower Identification from a Speeding Car

A blur can contain and provide detailed, discriminable information. One need not stop and smell the flowers to recognize which flowers are zipping across one’s field of vision. This book helps decipher the bits of light: A Field Guide to Roadside Wildflowers At Full Speed, Chris Helzer, Prairieecologist.com, 2019.

The author explains:

“What good is a field guide that relies upon the characteristics of tiny hairs or even minute differences in leaf or petal shape when a flower is seen from a car traveling 70 miles per hour? The world desperately needs a guide that illustrates and identifies characteristics of wildflowers as most people actually experience them.  This is that guide.”

(Thanks to Lieven Scheire for bringing this to our attention.)

Testing grapes for cellphone damage [study]

Could WiFi and GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) signals be harming bunches of grapes? In 2016, a research team from Jadavpur University and the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research performed a set of experiments (both practical and computer-modeled) to find out.

Some background :

“Number of wireless communication towers in India is increasing at a faster rate along with increased demand of voice and data services. Consequently, all plants and fruits get also exposed to radiation and absorb radio frequency energy due to their high dielectric properties. Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) analysis has been performed in a bunch of grapes having high water content due to plane wave RF exposure.”

The team’s analysis showed that :

“Estimated SAR results are alarming especially in GSM 1842.5 MHz and Wi-Fi 2450 MHz [..]”

And suggest that more research is required :

“[..] it requires further botanical, biochemical and biophysical analysis to comment on adverse effects of RF energy absorption in bunch of grapes and ensuing food values w. r. t non exposed grapes growing far away from RF/microwave antennas.”

See: SAR analysis in a typical bunch of grapes exposed to radio frequency radiation in Indian scenario in 2016 International Conference on Microelectronics, Computing and Communications (MicroCom)