Howard Marks > Quotes

“Forgetfulness is the catalytic germ of spontaneous creativity”
― Howard marks

“There's only one way to describe most investors: trend followers.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Expensive illogicalities and inefficiencies do not worry the monsters of American bureaucracy, and the taxpayers are enthusiastic and eager to spend fortunes in the name of fighting crime. Prison places cost the US taxpayer more than university places. The American belief that prisons are the best way to combat crime has led to an incarceration rate that is at least five times that of almost any industrialised nation. Overcrowding is endemic. Conditions are appalling, varying from windowless, sensory-deprived isolation to barren futile brutality.”
― Howard Marks, Mr. Nice

“A Philippine-brothel-owning member of the House of Lords was staying at the house of a Spanish Chief Inspector of Police. The Lord was being watched by an American CIA operative who was staying at the house of an English convicted sex offender. The CIA operative was sharing accommodation with an IRA terrorist. The IRA terrorist was discussing a Moroccan hashish deal with a Georgian pilot of Colombia's Medellín Cartel. Organising these scenarios was an ex-MI6 agent, currently supervising the sale of thirty tons of Thai weed in Canada and at whose house could be found Pakistan's major supplier of hashish. Attempting to understand the scenarios was a solitary DEA agent. The stage was set for something.”
― Howard Marks, Mr. Nice

“The most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. At that point, all favourable facts and opinions are already factored into its price and no new buyers are left to emerge”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“The correctness of a decision can’t be judged from the outcome. Nevertheless, that's how people assess it. A good decision is one that’s optimal at the time it’s made, when the future is by definition unknown. Thus, correct decisions are often unsuccessful, and vice versa.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“If everyone likes it, it's probably because it has been doing well. Most people seem to think that outstanding performance to dates presages outstanding future performance. Actually, it's more likely that outstanding future performance to date has borrowed from the future and thus presages subpar performance from her on out.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“If one is approached with a deal predicated on cycles having ceased to occur, remember that invariably that’s a losing bet.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“An accurate opinion on valuation, loosely held, will be of limited help. An incorrect opinion on valuation, strongly held, is far worse. This one statement shows how hard it is to get it all right.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“•Scepticism and pessimism aren’t synonymous. Scepticism calls for pessimism when optimism is excessive. But it also calls for optimism when pessimism is excessive.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Never forget the six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average.”
― Howard Marks

“Most people strive to adjust their portfolios based on what they think lies ahead. At the same time, however, most people would admit forward visibility just isn't that great. That's why I make the case for responding to the current realities and their implications, as opposed to expecting the future to be made clear.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“We conclude that most of the time, the future will look a lot like the past, with both up cycles and down cycles. There is a right time to argue that things will be better, and that's when the market is on its backside and everyone is selling things at giveaway prices. It's dangerous when the market's at record levels to reach for a positive rationalisation that has never held true in the past.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“In bubbles, infatuation with market momentum takes over from any notion of value and fair price, and greed (plus the pain of standing by as others make seemingly easy money) neutralises any prudence that might otherwise hold sway.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“This paradox exists because most investors think quality, as opposed to price, is the determinant of whether something's risky. But high quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe. It's just a matter of the price paid for them...Elevated popular opinion, then, isn't just the source of low return potential, but also of high risk.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“If you've settled on the value approach to investing and come up with an intrinsic value for a security or asset, the next important thing is to hold it firmly. That's because in the world of investing, being correct about something isn't at all synonymous with being proved correct right away.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“In good years, defensive investors have to be content with the knowledge that their gains, although perhaps less than maximal, were achieved with risk protection in place, even though it turned out not to be needed.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Decisi di diventare un beatnik a tutti gli affetti[...]. Fumai tutta la marijuana che mi passava tra le mani, lessi Kerouac, ascoltai Bob Dylan e Roland Kirk e andai a vedere film francesi che non capivo.”
― Howard Marks, Mr. Nice

“Risk arises as investor behaviour alters the market. Investors bid up assets, accelerating into the present appreciation that otherwise would have occurred in the future, and thus lowering prospective returns. The ultimate irony lies in the fact that the reward for taking incremental risk shrinks as more people move to take it.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“It's worth noting that the assumption that something can't happen has the potential to make it happen, since people who believe it can't happen will engage in risky behaviour, and thus alter the environment.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Can you send stuff out from Nepal by air, John?’
‘Ooh! No. No. I can’t do anything like that. No. No. No. Now, I know a man. He knows a man who might know.’
‘How much would it cost?’
‘Well, money is the thing, and they always do things for a fair and honest price, I promise you.’
‘What’s a fair price, John?’
‘You will tell me, I’m quite sure.’
‘What will you want out of it, John?’
‘If I help you do business, I’m sure you will give me a drink.’
‘A drink?’
‘Yes. If a man does something for you, you give him a drink. Please, if everything goes well, give me a drink.’
‘Can you check that the quality will be all right?’
‘I only smoke Tom Thumb, but I know a man who has a knife.’
I took this as a yes.
‘Can you make it smell-proof?’
‘Not if God made it smell.’
‘Do you know a man who can?’
‘No. But if you do, let him come and do it, or give me instructions.’
‘How much can they send?’
‘I should think it depends on when you want to do it by.’
‘Well, John, the Americans will want to do a ton as soon as possible.’
‘Now I was in America once, and the thing is that Americans will always want more, and there is no end to their madness. Lovely people, for sure, but you have to keep them in line. When my visa ran out, the Immigration asked me why I wanted to extend it, and I said it was because I hadn’t run out of money. He stamped it and said, “Have a nice day.” So, if the Americans ask for a ton tomorrow, say you will do half a ton when Wales win the Triple Crown. That will deal with their madness, and everyone can get on with their lives. It saves all that tidding.’
‘Tidding?’
‘Talking Imaginary Deals.’
Accurately conveying the contents of my conversation with Old John to Ernie wasn’t easy. I told Ernie hashish could be exported from Nepal for about the same price as Robert Crimball charged in Bangkok, but 500 kilos was the most they could do at one time, and someone would have to be sent out to ensure the consignment was smell-proof. Ernie sent his right-hand man, Tom Sunde, with money, instructions, and smell-proof know-how. Tom came to London first before going to Kathmandu to meet Old John. He had been authorised by Ernie to keep nothing from me regarding the intricacies of the New York scam.”
― Howard Marks, Mr. Nice

“Most people view risk taking primarily as a way to make money. Bearing higher risk generally produces higher returns...But it can’t always work that way, or else risk investments wouldn't be risky. And when risk bearing doesn't work, it really doesn't work, and people are reminded what risk's all about.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. An asset is only attractive if it’s priced right.”
― howard marks

“You can't do the same things others do and expect to outperform.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“O apêndice de Warren Buffett para a quarta edição revisada de O investidor inteligente (livro de Benjamin Graham) descreve um concurso em que cada um dos 225 milhões de americanos começa com 1 dólar e lança uma moeda uma vez por dia. As pessoas que acertam no primeiro dia recolhem um dólar daqueles que erraram; é feito um novo lançamento no segundo dia, e assim por diante. Dez dias depois, 220 mil pessoas acertaram dez vezes seguidas e ganharam 1.000 dólares. “Talvez tentem ser modestas, mas, nas festas, admitirão ocasionalmente, aos membros atraentes do sexo oposto, suas técnicas e os maravilhosos insights que podem oferecer para o estudo do lançamento de moedas.” Depois de mais dez dias, estamos com 215 sobreviventes que acertaram vinte vezes seguidas e ganharam 1 milhão de dólares cada. Essas pessoas escrevem livros intitulados “Como transformei um dólar em um milhão em vinte dias trabalhando trinta segundos por manhã” e passam a ganhar dinheiro com palestras. Soa familiar?”
― Howard Marks, O mais importante para o investidor: Lições de um gênio do mercado financeiro

“An accurate opinion on valuation, loosely held, will be of limited help. An incorrect opinion on valuation, strongly held, is far worse. This one statement shows how hard it is to get it all right”
― Howard Marks

“o In bubbles, infatuation with market momentum takes over from any notion of value and fair price, and greed (plus the pain of standing by as others make seemingly easy money) neutralises any prudence that might otherwise hold sway.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“There aren’t always great things to do, and sometimes we maximize our contribution by being discerning and relatively inactive. Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often your best strategy.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“the world becomes a better place – an easier place to navigate if we admit that even though there are opinions, they may be wrong.”
― Howard Marks

“A high-quality asset can constitute a good or bad buy, and a low-quality asset can constitute a good or bad buy. The tendency to mistake objective merit for investment opportunity, and the failure to distinguish between good assets and good buys, get most investors in trouble.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor