Manny’s answer to “Is peak oil a fraud? Is there evidence supporting abiotic oil and coal? Yes and Yes! Read on: h…” > Likes and Comments
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I've read many of his books, also Jane Gregory's biography. I'd go as far as to say I'm a Hoyle fan! But my capacity for belief is not great enough to accept more than a small fraction of his many pronouncements. I know, I should work harder on credo quia absurdum.
As a young teen I "read" Paul Ehrlich's "The Population Bomb", wherein he predicted hundreds of millions would starve to death in Asia before 1980.
I'd like to say that I lost sleep over this particular "groundbreaking idea", but I had "three hots and a cot" and soon got a beater to drive (goodbye bicycle), and a girlfriend - all of which were not only more credible but more tangible to Ehrlichian Fantasies.
(a long way to say I forgot about them)
Actually it wasn't so groundbreaking, since long ago Rev. Malthus made similar, less specific, predictions.
Enough about that deluded academic.
More generally, my takeaway is that Malthus and his like fail to account for human ingenuity.
Peak Oil advocates may well be correct in the long run - shorter term, they seem to be ignorant of Corporate Ingenuity
(see, I'm hedging)
(not that anyone is really paying attention)
For those that ARE (paying attention) a takeaway might be to only pay attention to the corporate types who continue to expand the reserve estimates.
This is all too serious - I love to see Manny's clever assessment of Ehrlich is
(OK - NOW that's enough about him)
I suppose you can argue that population growth is exponential, but the growth of human ingenuity is also exponential, so the one can counteract the other. Unfortunately, this line of reasoning seems to lead you directly to the Singularity.
Oh well, at least it's a more interesting version of Armageddon...
I've heard about that Singularity thing. IIRC it's similar to Collosus in Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970). Decent hard SF film and better book.
Seems that the dominant primates forgot about "pulling the plug" (they didn't design one).
If interested in what a "science guy" (Ron Bailey) has to say about peak oil (narrowly focused on US production and reserves) go here:
http://reason.com/blog/2017/07/27/pea...
For a broader treatment of resources in general:
http://reason.com/blog/2017/05/01/phy...
Finally here, for "three contrasting reviews" of Bailey's The End of Doom:
http://thefederalist.com/2015/09/07/h...
I've read him for quite a while and find he is sober and careful in his science writing. I don't recall that he has ever rung my B#!!S#IT detectors.
Colossus was here first (before "singularity talk").
Thanks for confirming, I was getting tired of looking it up and forgetting what "singularity" means!
(that is, the non-black hole variety)
Perhaps the most important question about peak oil is whether it's even relevant. Everyone's finally moving towards solar. There's more than enough free power coming from the big fusion plant in the sky, all we need to do is collect it...
Perhaps the most important question about peak oil is whether it's even relevant.
Good point - until we get free of fossil fuel, cheap oil (and relatively free markets) will help drive most human activity.
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Jul 30, 2017 04:45AM
He did figure out some solid physics on stellar nucleosynthesis. Cut the guy a break. He was a good scientist even if he harbored some cranky beliefs.
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I've read many of his books, also Jane Gregory's biography. I'd go as far as to say I'm a Hoyle fan! But my capacity for belief is not great enough to accept more than a small fraction of his many pronouncements. I know, I should work harder on credo quia absurdum.
As a young teen I "read" Paul Ehrlich's "The Population Bomb", wherein he predicted hundreds of millions would starve to death in Asia before 1980. I'd like to say that I lost sleep over this particular "groundbreaking idea", but I had "three hots and a cot" and soon got a beater to drive (goodbye bicycle), and a girlfriend - all of which were not only more credible but more tangible to Ehrlichian Fantasies.
(a long way to say I forgot about them)
Actually it wasn't so groundbreaking, since long ago Rev. Malthus made similar, less specific, predictions.
Enough about that deluded academic.
More generally, my takeaway is that Malthus and his like fail to account for human ingenuity.
Peak Oil advocates may well be correct in the long run - shorter term, they seem to be ignorant of Corporate Ingenuity
(see, I'm hedging)
(not that anyone is really paying attention)
For those that ARE (paying attention) a takeaway might be to only pay attention to the corporate types who continue to expand the reserve estimates.
This is all too serious - I love to see Manny's clever assessment of Ehrlich is
(OK - NOW that's enough about him)
I suppose you can argue that population growth is exponential, but the growth of human ingenuity is also exponential, so the one can counteract the other. Unfortunately, this line of reasoning seems to lead you directly to the Singularity.Oh well, at least it's a more interesting version of Armageddon...
I've heard about that Singularity thing. IIRC it's similar to Collosus in Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970). Decent hard SF film and better book. Seems that the dominant primates forgot about "pulling the plug" (they didn't design one).
If interested in what a "science guy" (Ron Bailey) has to say about peak oil (narrowly focused on US production and reserves) go here:http://reason.com/blog/2017/07/27/pea...
For a broader treatment of resources in general:
http://reason.com/blog/2017/05/01/phy...
Finally here, for "three contrasting reviews" of Bailey's The End of Doom:
http://thefederalist.com/2015/09/07/h...
I've read him for quite a while and find he is sober and careful in his science writing. I don't recall that he has ever rung my B#!!S#IT detectors.
Colossus was here first (before "singularity talk"). Thanks for confirming, I was getting tired of looking it up and forgetting what "singularity" means!
(that is, the non-black hole variety)
Perhaps the most important question about peak oil is whether it's even relevant. Everyone's finally moving towards solar. There's more than enough free power coming from the big fusion plant in the sky, all we need to do is collect it...
Perhaps the most important question about peak oil is whether it's even relevant.Good point - until we get free of fossil fuel, cheap oil (and relatively free markets) will help drive most human activity.
