Named a Best Book of 2019 by NPR“How might we mitigate losses caused by shortsightedness? Bina Venkataraman, a former climate adviser to the Obama administration, brings a storyteller’s eye to this question. . . . She is also deeply informed about the relevant science.” —The New York Times Book ReviewA trailblazing exploration of how we can plan better for the our own, our families’, and our society’s. Instant gratification is the norm today—in our lives, our culture, our economy, and our politics. Many of us have forgotten (if we ever learned) how to make smart decisions for the long run. Whether it comes to our finances, our health, our communities, or our planet, it’s easy to avoid thinking ahead. The consequences of this immediacy are Deadly outbreaks spread because leaders failed to act on early warning signs. Companies that fail to invest stagnate and fall behind. Hurricanes and wildfires turn deadly for communities that could have taken more precaution. Today more than ever, all of us need to know how we can make better long-term decisionsin our lives, businesses, and society. Bina Venkataraman sees the way forward. A journalist and former adviser in the Obama White House, she helped communities and businesses prepare for climate change, and she learned firsthand why people don’t think ahead—and what can be done to change that. In The Optimist’s Telescope, she draws from stories she has reported around the world and new research in biology, psychology, and economics to explain how we can make decisions that benefit us over time. With examples from ancient Pompeii to modern-day Fukushima, she dispels the myth that human nature is impossibly reckless and highlights the surprising practices each of us can adopt in our own lives—and the ones we must fight for as a society. The result is a book brimming with the ideas and insights all of us need in order to forge a better future.
If you have never thought about the future, then I guess this book is worth reading. And I have to admit that Venkataraman has all the right insights about systems topics I myself spend a lot of time teaching and thinking about, and has managed to thread a needle through it all in the form of a book. But I am frustrated by pretty much everything else about it. It's as if the author has identified all the right stars in the night sky, but interprets them as constellations and signs for horoscopes instead of getting into astrophysics. The result feels, to the more erudite reader, like reading the kind of BuzzFeed style blogpost in which interesting items from other parts of the web have been slapped together with almost no additional intellectual contribution, and you wonder what kind of person spends the time to write or read this; or, like some conference you regret going to as soon as you arrive and realize how basic the content is, and you can't wait to leave. Even more frustrating, there is an attempt here to compose chapters in a Pulitzer Prize-winning style, where stories are interwoven like characters with parallel storylines, and imbued with emotional gravitas. I almost quit reading in the chapter where a personal anecdote about glitter bombing a friend running a race was used as a framework to talk about the importance of R&D in medicine, spaceflight, and AI, among other topics that certainly did not need a shiny wrapper to be appreciated. All and all I'm being harsher than I need to be, which should be taken as a sign that I had so much higher expectations for this book, and if you are in the same world as me, you should skip this one.
This book is incredible. I read it and then immediately started suggesting it to everyone I know. Her ability to look at multiple complex problems and draw unified and concise conclusions helps us all to understand the value of long term planning and decision making. I think this book is a MUST read for executives of all stripes and for everyone who wants to create a better world.
Eh. It had some interesting pieces but was pretty scattershot. Jumping from personal finance and decisions on whether we go to the gym or watch another tv episode to issues of corporate research & development investment and taxes got a little tiresome. Also, a little bit insensitive as longterm thinking on a personal and organizational level are very different issues with very different impacts on the world. There were tips on how to encourage longterm thinking but I'm afraid they didn't stand out and I've already forgotten them - I got distracted by the investment practices of corporations. I listened to this book less than a week ago and I already barely remember it.
THE OPTIMIST'S TELESCOPE by Bina Venkataraman is an interesting book about decision theory in the real-world. It looks at many important aspects of creating accountability systems based on what works. It's nice, research-based advice.
It covers an entire gamut of issues. Like how to EFFECTIVELY track doctors and communicate with them so they don't over-prescribe antibiotics in situations where they're useless, as in for a patient with cold and flu symptoms. ANd how the lessons some hospital systems used for antibiotics have proved effective in clamping down on the opioid epidemic when applies state-wide. Or how poker players "hack" Vegas by ignoring the bright, shiny lights and get-rich-quick mentality and just "grinding it out," focused on small wins and solid decisions. It even takes a swipe at why big money controlling politics is a bad thing for most of us and our children, nieces and nephews and grandchildren... VERY BAD, if she's right, since big money is making it impossible for today's politicians to address uber-important topics like climate change. And since she uses some really excellent research, I think she's right.
Worth a read. It's short, well-researched and interesting. Four stars. Maybe closer to 3.75, but I can justify rounding up.
The Optimist's Telescope tackles a deep and important problem. Why are we so bad at preparing for the future? How can we improve on this score? It offers some good tips.
The book's structure is based on Venkataraman investigating different dimensions of the problem, then interviewing people about it. It's a very friendly and easy book to read, especially with the author's strong first person presence. Indeed, it's more than a little autobiographical.
So how can we improve out ability to think about and plan for the future?
One solution which Venkataraman touches on a bit too lightly is using state power to compel people to think and plan accordingly (24). Some civil libertarians and many Republicans might enjoy seeing that the author worked for the Obama team.
Others: -giving ourselves time to "let... the mind wander." That can take us away from the present. (29) -offering prizes that can only be realized down the road, or at key milestones (73-4). A variant: if/then tactics, which tie future rewards to present actions (87-8). Another variant: positing "enticing fantas[ies] of the future that motivates people in the present" (175) -flip side: "create immediate rewards for future goals" (273) -artificially adding delays to stall certain present actions (106) -avoiding too great a focus on small-scale tactical data (189ff). This might sound counterintuitive but can free us up to look at bigger picture stories. -using metaphors that calm us and suggest longer term thinking (202) -forcing ourselves to think about possibilities other than the most dramatic ones that struck us in th recent past (216) -publishing public markers to warn against mistakes (226) -playing games where people take up roles other than their own (236) -including people from multiple generations, regions, and professions in foresight (236-7) -nudging, a la Sunstein and Thaler (118)
The Optimist's Telescope is an odd book in some respects. Its politics are curious, titling towards certain strains of modern American progressivism, which leads to a string of expert and often very wealthy interviewees, while at the same time admiring Edmund Burke (251). Venkataraman wants us to improve institutions, including businesses, without upsetting or reforming them (274). Ultimately it's a rather conservative book.
I mention this not to add politics to where they might not be obvious, but because the issue makes me skeptical of the book's ideas. Are they to be sprinkled across an unequal and increasingly fouled-up society and improve things without changing them? Perhaps the politics of our time are one big reason why it's hard for many to actually do foresight?
There's also a Malcolm Gladwell vibe here, of hitting a topic from multiple directions without really building a thesis or model.
So it's a good read if you approach it with lowered expectations and a sense of when to skim.
"We must come to see that the end we seek is a society at peace with itself, a society that can live with its conscience." - Martin Luther King Jr. . A quote that comes at the end of Bina Venkataraman's latest book The Optimist's Telescope. She has approached the question of how we do a better job as a society making long-term decisions that through the eyes of an optimist. We face so many crises that it can seem overwhelming at times. The economy, politics, and the climate all seem to taunt us every day and yet Bina believes we aren't powerless to preventing catastrophe. . Moving from the individual and family, Bina works towards organizations and corporations and ultimately to society as a whole. It's an interesting read and similar to Steven Johnson's book Farsighted (who also looks at how we make decisions in the short-term vs. long-term). Topics include the micro-finance world in India where a seemingly good idea to help finance micro businesses turned into increased suicide rates as microloans became a haven for debt collectors putting untold pressure on individuals. . While I appreciated all of the ideas and spent time reflecting on them, they ultimately come across as general ideas that would only come to fruition if everyone takes an honest look at the ideas and tries to implement them. We are caught in systems that work against the ideas and therefore as individuals have to work even harder to try and make ourselves better at making long-term decisions and help to influence the organizations and people around us. . As individuals, a good starting point is to avoid being distracted by short-term noise and work at cultivating patience. Think of putting money in an investment account and rather than watching daily fluctuations we perhaps check once a hear and recognize that it takes time to build wealth. If we are working on losing weight, the daily scale check is not going to be the data point we can rely on to see if it's working. Checking every week or every other week begins to show the long-term trend and whether we are on the right course. . This book is for those who are interested in the process of short-term vs. long-term decision making and some of the critical areas that we face as a society. The Fukushima nuclear reactor story plays a big part in this book as well from the mistakes made to lessons we can learn in long-term planning.
I really enjoyed this thoughtful and well researched book. Venkataraman brings her myriad of experiences in journalism, higher ed, and policy work into this book. It provides a number of new ways to think about the future as more than just individual decisions, but as ways that we can think about the world as ancestors.
Human beings are not able to prepare for the future. We don’t save enough for retirement. We cannot reduce our carbon footprint. Investors and CEOs focus on short term results, losing site of long term results. Fishermen over fish, depleting the stock of fish, called the Tragedy of the Commons. People rebuild their houses in flood prone coastal regions again and again after floods. Organisers of the Munich Olympic Games did not anticipate scenarios of terrorism resulting in tragic deaths. The Thai government did not want to sound the alarm of tsunami because they did not want to turn tourists away. So how?
1. Imagine the futures concretely. Do a ‘pre-mortem’ and imagine how any initiative could have failed. 2. Leave simple and direct instructions for the next generation. In 2 Japan villages ancestors teach about tsunamis in local lore and they marked the hill close to the ocean ‘Do not come here during a tsunami’. 3. Encourage Long term investing, tax every financial transaction. 4. Give a chance to win a lucky draw to encourage desired behaviour. 5. Create a stable environment so that people are sure of their Long term savings. This is insight from the marshmallow study: it is not willpower but then believe that the Researchers will actually honour their promise. 6. Play war games with a diverse group of players to identify scenarios that have not been thought of.
This is a rather good book, but the points are not clear cut but sort of jumbled up.
There aren’t [m]any topics more important than this one, and Venkataraman is passionate and deeply knowledgeable about it. I hadn’t read her work before, but the book makes clear that she’s a strong writer, a very intelligent person, and a thoughtful, thorough journalistic researcher. However, her editor (and early readers) fell asleep on the job. The historical examples and evidence from scientific studies are interesting and instructive, but their organization feels entirely jumbled to the reader, without a clearly identifiable narrative arc or structured argument. The set of recommendations she includes in the coda is great and could have been a useful organizing principle, but looking back through the chapters, I couldn’t clearly identify whether that was supposed to be the loose structure of the book. I wanted to like this a lot more than I did, but I might hesitantly recommend it nonetheless, because it’s so important for individuals and organizational leaders to at least have a basic awareness of these ideas.
This honestly felt like I was reading a book of one of those "alpha males" on youtube who want to get you to hustle, too. The prologue was very intriguing, but then the next 200 pages were basically just examples of big businesses being successfull. Which isn't what I want or need from from a self-help book. There were absolutely no anecdotes from the the author and how she implemented "thinking ahead" in her life or how you, the reader, can implement this technique in your own life. Only on the last two pages were you given a freaking list of what you can do to think ahead in your life. This honestly felt like such a joke to me. Didn't like.
Not pretending to have the solution but some advice on finding some
Well researched, scholarly and accessible. Many of the anecdotes ring true while reading but the wisdom shines through as the common themes of optimism and self interest served best by thinking about long-term common interests become apparent.
[Disclaimer: Bina Venkataraman is a close relative and, in my opinion, an excellent science journalist.]
It is not a coincidence that The Optimist's Telescope: Thinking Ahead in a Reckless Age came out a) just as I have begun giving talks about the future of geoscience and its applications in a world powered by more than fossil fuels and b) at the same time as the formation of a Society of Exploration Geophysicists strategy group dedicated to capabilities and opportunities for early-career applied geophysicists. The new normal of volatile economies, demographic changes, increasing globalization, climate change and shifting priorities in governance obviously have many more than future-focused geoscientists like me concerned. And not just for ourselves but also and especially for those to whom we leave this world. What will our legacy be? Leaving problems for the kids to work out or searching for and starting solutions?
My talks vary according to the audience, but adhere to and are constructed around the three main components of the future: People, practices, and philosophies. First, who’s We? Who are the people we consider in our collective future? Next, what tools do We have, and which ones need creating. How and why are they used? Finally, are We mentally and emotionally mature and philosophically capable to talk about the future? Can We change? The philosophy of the futurist must involve an acknowledgement of human interdependencies as well as deep introspection and more open conversation, and is what Optimist’s Telescope opens with. In truth, thinking about the future isn’t even that profound or ponderous for, as the book says early on, “What appears our doomed fate is, in reality, a choice.” Help yourself and others make good choices.
Yes, we can change, Bina argues, because we have. Beyond provoking thought, it is in each chapter being a concrete example of an implementable solution, sustainable practice or failure analysis where The Optimist’s Telescope excels. Furthermore, Bina’s reporting skills helped her put together each of these examples as case studies but first as stories. Empathizing with the story and people of the matter and to the tick of the long clock instead of embracing or rejecting it with respect to momentary political ideology may be a better way of enacting long-lasting and much-needed change.
New problems need new solutions but there is also wisdom to be had from histories and cultures we refuse to consider in our increasingly “global” scape. Bina goes into this in some detail with takeaways that we can use today and in our seemingly varied communities. We in the 21st-century west are not smarter than ancient Pompeiians or more advanced than the inhabitants of rural Cameroon. In fact, hiding our primitive and failing institutional practices behind the veneer of flashy technology, language-bending buzzwords and crisp suits is so much worse.
Overall, The Optimist’s Telescope is a well-researched, passionate and practical plea for a futures-based approach to solving the problem of our continued co-existence on this planet. As I imagine geoscience curricula for schools and universities, we must start with what needs addressing before we routinely pick items for students’ toolbelts. I greatly recommend this book or select chapters to accompany all science, philosophy and science communication classes at all levels of education so that students may create their own futures and design their own tools to make it good and real. And I can’t wait for Book 2 for more stories and visions of the future.
There is a lot of high level thinking in this book -- a lot. Each chapter is an array of thoughtful prods and questions. To be honest, I got a bit lost a coupleof times. These times where interrupted by dazling paragraphs which explained everything. We talked for hours about ideas and situations in this book.
I'd encourage anyone to read this deeply thoughtful book.
The book is an exploration of the implication of short-term versus long-term thinking citing many case studies where the former has had detrimental outcomes whereas others using the latter have done better. She cited commercial banks on the Indian sub-continent pushing loans onto borrowers who can’t afford to repay them; a planned major commercial development on a floodplain in South Carolina; the non-use of historic flood data when planning the nuclear reactors in Fukushima Japan; and mortgage defaults in the USA. The short-term approach was contrasted with the strategies used by successful professional poker players; a cautious approach to antibiotic management which significantly reduced the rate of infections; successful fisheries management, Montessori education; and agriculture for the long term in particular the cross-breeding of perennials with deep roots and food crops.
Interspersed with the above were references to Garrett Hardin’s 1968 essay "The Tragedy of the Commons" which explored the challenges and the conundrum of taking care of shared resources, the writing of Jarrad Diamond (I’ve read one of his books and can see the parallels), Aristotle and others. The book also presented some principles and practices which can engender longer term thinking including scenario game playing, premortums and seeing an avatar image of one’s older self. Also interspersed were examples where longer term thinking had paid off, citing investment companies looking at long term factors whereas the stock market favours a short-term focus, nuclear waste disposal and the successful campaign which stopped the planned development in South Carolina.
Overall, it was an excellent, well-researched book, its only weaknesses being that the conclusions were somewhat weak and conflated actions that can be taken by individuals with those that can only be taken by governments.
Interesting book that explains why humans are so bad at dealing with the future. Through many examples, it explains how we fail to learn from the past and ways we can work to overcome those issues and prepare for future problems. I found the example of cabbies very interesting -- they have shown that their own daily goal interferes with earning efficiency. On rainy days, they are more likely to quit early because they hit their daily target early, when if they stayed out longer, they could easily make more money that day. Conversely, on nice weather days, they will often drive around hoping for more fares even when it costs them in time and gas because they haven't hit the daily target.
Other examples included ways we are biased towards only the current normal, and ways we often are spending a lot of time and energy preparing for the last disaster instead of working to imagine other things that could go wrong. The Fukushima power plant disaster was an example of both. Unlike some other power plants that were built to withstand historic tsunami levels, the Fukushima only went back 500 years to plan for needed height. After the disaster, they put a lot of time and money into making sure nothing of the kind could never happen again, but as the author notes, they did nothing to prepare for potential threats of North Korea or for terrorism. Similarly, after 1989 in San Francisco, earthquake insurance buying went up significantly, but after ten years, that had fallen to previous low levels. And if bond raters had taken into account the events of the Great Depression instead of just the last 30 years when rating the mortgage securities in the 2000's, the Housing Bubble fiasco could have been avoided.
The author is a former climate change policy advisor for President Obama who was frustrated by her inability to get people to take action around climate change. She wondered about why people seem so unwilling to confront the future, even when they know catastrophic consequences are almost inevitable — she cites people rebuilding homes in flood areas after hurricanes as another example, along with people playing the lottery rather than saving for retirement (and actually thinking that winning the lottery is an acceptable strategy for preparing for their golden years). This book is the result of her investigation, and it’s riveting. She explores why people act this way, and also how to think creatively to get them to act differently without really expecting or needing them to change — for example, tying savings accounts to high-prize drawings to leverage the lottery thinking to promote saving. She provides a fascinating glimpse into how people think and what can be done to focus more on the future. Her recommendations at the end are not as successful — they are a little vague and don’t have much behind them. But that’s not really the point of the book anyway — as a lens into why people ignore potential/probable catastrophes and the broad strokes of ways to overcome our nature, it’s a book that everyone involved in policy decisions of any kind should be familiar with. It’s also immensely readable and filled with examples and compelling stories.
This book examines the problems created by short term thinking, with several examples of the dire consequences and ideas for how to combat this at the end. Here are a few more: the media can stop showing us dire statistics and scenarios and tell us what we can do about them. Many times I watch a documentary or article that angers me with no suggestions on how to fix the problem. This leaves people demoralized and apathetic. More solutions and more focus on people solving problems would help. More sense of community and working together would help and less focus on grades and colleges. National service so people meet others not like them so we feel like we are all in this together. Politicians are incentivized to do short term things that get them re-elected and term limits discourage them from passing laws that pay off years later. We need politicians inspiring us to find solutions and work together instead of fighting each other. We all want the sense of shared mission the Greatest Generation had without the war. The people who lead us together to solve problems are who we should be creating, not another generation of Wall Street traders .
Equal parts philosophy, sociology, and news story, here is a book that explains how we can plan for the distant future and why we should want to. My favorite chapter is the "Glitter Bomb" section, because it gives us an optimistic pile of examples of when planning ahead ended up as a big wins. I love this book, and it actually helps me understand why people resist acknowledging the dangers of what is going to happen in the future, and it helped me feel sympathy for the deniers instead of the ire I normally feel! This is a well written credo, a way to live with an eye on future generations, and it asks us to consider making changes that will not directly make us wealthier, but instead will improve life for the descendants of the human race hundreds or thousands of years from now. I think she pulls it off, and sounds very reasonable at the same time. Lots of historical examples, and many current situations of people and groups who are striving to use the ideals in this book to do just that. I'm not saying the book made them take up their improvements for the future, but I hope it does influence everyone now who reads The Optimist's Telescope! This book could save the world!!!
Thinking ahead in times when there is a constant need for instant gratification. The author addresses this idea through personal, real-world, science and technology applications. I appreciated the specific tactics outlined as solutions, including:
1. Look Beyond Near-Term Targets: Focus on developing metrics that capture long term goals vs short term. 2. Stroke the imagination: Play an active role in expanding our vision of the future by using scenario based exercise that involve if/then rituals. 3. Create Immediate Rewards for Future Goals: Set-up systems that reward people in the present for invests in the future like linking lotteries to building a savings account. 4. Direct attention away from immediate Urges: Create conditions that allow for a more delayed response where people can make wiser decisions instead of conditions that promote urgency and instant gratification.
Overall, great insights on how to cultivate more long term vision. The low rating is based on the fact that there were many anecdotal stories pulled from different points in history that distracted from the main points. It was challenging for me to follow along.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
While it was very insightful into little aspects of life and the future, it was brought about in a strange way. It was hard to wrap my mind around the different points Venkataraman was trying to convey. It would just from point to point, but by the end of the paragraph, it would all be explained as being connected to our ability to process the future. It is breathtaking to me in that way. I just wish the points weren’t so conjoined and spread out at the same time. It may just not be right up to my preferred reading level, but I would recommend this book to anyone who is needing help in guiding themselves through their future plans. It takes a lot to read, by that meaning, sophistication to own up when you are not feeling the happiest in a certain place, even with incentives to get you there. As I’ve said before, it is insightful. Just make sure you take the time to actually grasp all of the ideas that the author is trying to convey throughout with the points she makes. Take the time to understand, and it will help. It has already helped me.
There were several things I didn't like about this book. Firstly, I didn't like the repetition of words I distinctly remembered from pages or chapters before. For example, towards the end of the book, I remember being peeved by the usage of the word eponymous (meaning where something gets its name from). Secondly, I didn't like how much Bina Venkataraman repeated the points she was making in each chapter in the very chapter. I understand why, and I understand why she went about writing it in this way, but I wasn't a big fan when I was reading it. However I did quite enjoy the overall message of the book, and particularly the last 2 'chapters' (meaning Chapter 9 and the coda of the book). I think the book is important to read, and can be helpful, especially if more people in power read the book and took it seriously. But again I know the style can be off-putting. Very good book, and important message, did not particularly like the style though! *thumbs up emoji* :-)
Ms. Venkataraman does a great job in the first half of the book telling stories around the past and present need to think more long term in the challenges we face today. She’s a good writer and the stories are compelling. I found myself losing momentum though and was about to put this book on my shelf. Over the Labor Day weekend, I decided to push through. Perhaps it’s the current COVID-19 pandemic, or being surrounded by wildfires in the San Francisco bay area, but I mustered new motivation. I’m glad that I did. While there are no clear answers presented, she finishes with optimism and a few guidelines worth thinking about. If you’re worried about the future, it’s worthwhile reading.
P.S. I think somehow this book would benefit from a different title.
Great premise: how to make decisions for the long term instead of the immediate future - as individuals, communities, and societies. Lots of great assessment of psychological obstacles and barriers, and techniques to overcome them. Some great vignettes about individuals and groups who have driven long term thinking (although how replicable these are for the rest of us is less clear). Also a robust criticism of economists “discounting the future” as not capturing popular thinking on the ethics of preserving cultural and resource legacies for future generations.
I wish there were a stronger narrative thread that pulled it all together, and a more actionable mission to conclude.
I started reading this book by recommendation from my uni professor (borrowed his copy).
For me, I understand that the purpose of the book is to help reclaim control of our destinies in a world that feels out of control.
The book is split into 3: The Individual, Businesses, and Society.
I went into this book looking for ways, techniques, exercises to gain that 'optimist's telescope' perspective. And I did find and save those! The book comes with many real-life stories to illustrate its points, and they're quite interesting. I wasn't interested in the topic beyond The Individual though, so I'm marking it as finished to move on. ✨
As a futurist, I believe in the benefits of contingency planning and in our innate, evolved ability to solve each of the problems we need to overcome as a society, so unfortunately there was no turning point for me personally with this book and instead just good sound advice for the way science is and society should be aimed. Venkataraman did a great job of showing both myopic and foresight in government, business, and society and this book should definitely be read by anyone interested in more sustainable growth models that support a triple bottom line.
Maybe it is my frustration with nature's coronavirus spread, but I have no patience for this type of book. This is a rambling agglomeration of historical examples that goes on for almost 300 pages giving examples of things that happened in the past in relation to families, businesses, and societies where groups were shortsighted. There is no "thinking ahead" as suggested by the subtitle. No strategies, no ideas for how to think differently when faced with the present versus the future. An ad about her engagement in San Francisco caught my eye.
I loved the idea of learning about how society could encourage long-term thinking rather than focusing only on short-term gain. This book had so many interesting ideas. The only issue was that it was difficult to follow the train of thought throughout the book. There were multiple examples and anecdotes that were half explained in one chapter and then picked up again several chapters later. I want to rate this higher because the topic is important and the book is full of good information, but I felt like I got lost over and over while reading.