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The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations
How the earth's previous global warming phase, from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries, reshaped human societies from the Arctic to the Sahara―a wide-ranging history with sobering lessons for our own time.
From the tenth to the fifteenth centuries the earth experienced a rise in surface temperature that changed climate worldwide―a preview of today's global warming. In some areas, including Western Europe, longer summers brought bountiful harvests and population growth that led to cultural flowering. In the Arctic, Inuit and Norse sailors made cultural connections across thousands of miles as they traded precious iron goods. Polynesian sailors, riding new wind patterns, were able to settle the remotest islands on earth. But in many parts of the world, the warm centuries brought drought and famine. Elaborate societies in western and central America collapsed, and the vast building complexes of Chaco Canyon and the Mayan Yucatan were left empty.
As he did in his bestselling The Little Ice Age , anthropologist and historian Brian Fagan reveals how subtle changes in the environment had far-reaching effects on human life, in a narrative that sweeps from the Arctic ice cap to the Sahara to the Indian Ocean. The history of the Great Warming of a half millennium ago suggests that we may yet be underestimating the power of climate change to disrupt our lives today―and our vulnerability to drought, writes Fagan, is the "silent elephant in the room."
Learn more at www.brianfagan.com.
Brian Fagan discusses The Great Warming on The Daily Show with John Stewart.
PRAISE for The Great Warming :
"This is not only World History at its best, sweeping across all of humankind with a coherent vision, but also a feat of imagination and massive research. If Fagan has given the medieval period throughout the globe a new dimension, he has at the same time issued an irrefutable warning about climate change that is deeply troubling."―Theodore Rabb, author of The Last Days of the Renaissance
"Climate has been making history for a very long time, though historians have rarely paid much attention to it. But as it turns out, a few less inches of rain, a change in temperature of just a degree or two can make all the difference in how human events unfold. The Great Warming demonstrates that although human beings make history, they very definitely do not make it under circumstances of their own choosing.”―Ted Steinberg, author of Down to Nature’s Role in American History and American The Obsessive Quest for the Perfect Lawn
From the tenth to the fifteenth centuries the earth experienced a rise in surface temperature that changed climate worldwide―a preview of today's global warming. In some areas, including Western Europe, longer summers brought bountiful harvests and population growth that led to cultural flowering. In the Arctic, Inuit and Norse sailors made cultural connections across thousands of miles as they traded precious iron goods. Polynesian sailors, riding new wind patterns, were able to settle the remotest islands on earth. But in many parts of the world, the warm centuries brought drought and famine. Elaborate societies in western and central America collapsed, and the vast building complexes of Chaco Canyon and the Mayan Yucatan were left empty.
As he did in his bestselling The Little Ice Age , anthropologist and historian Brian Fagan reveals how subtle changes in the environment had far-reaching effects on human life, in a narrative that sweeps from the Arctic ice cap to the Sahara to the Indian Ocean. The history of the Great Warming of a half millennium ago suggests that we may yet be underestimating the power of climate change to disrupt our lives today―and our vulnerability to drought, writes Fagan, is the "silent elephant in the room."
Learn more at www.brianfagan.com.
Brian Fagan discusses The Great Warming on The Daily Show with John Stewart.
PRAISE for The Great Warming :
"This is not only World History at its best, sweeping across all of humankind with a coherent vision, but also a feat of imagination and massive research. If Fagan has given the medieval period throughout the globe a new dimension, he has at the same time issued an irrefutable warning about climate change that is deeply troubling."―Theodore Rabb, author of The Last Days of the Renaissance
"Climate has been making history for a very long time, though historians have rarely paid much attention to it. But as it turns out, a few less inches of rain, a change in temperature of just a degree or two can make all the difference in how human events unfold. The Great Warming demonstrates that although human beings make history, they very definitely do not make it under circumstances of their own choosing.”―Ted Steinberg, author of Down to Nature’s Role in American History and American The Obsessive Quest for the Perfect Lawn
304 pages, Hardcover
First published March 4, 2008
112 people are currently reading
1216 people want to read
About the author
Brian M. Fagan
180 books270 followersBrian Murray Fagan was a British author of popular archaeology books and a professor emeritus of Anthropology at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 107 reviews
January 8, 2015
I like my science interesting and even provocative but I have no use for the science polemicists. This guy is way over on the side that holds humans responsible for every bit of global warming. If your vocabulary includes liberal use of “global climate change deniers” should be shunned, jailed, shot, banned, etc., you will probably like this book.
…we’ve entered a time of sustained warming, which dates back to at least 1860, propelled in large part by human activity—by the green-house gases from fossil fuels.
The prolonged debate over anthropogenic global warming is over, for the scientific evidence documenting our contributions to a much warmer world of the future is now beyond the stage of controversy. Now the discussions are changing focus, as we grapple with the long-term problems of reducing pollutants and living with the consequences of a world where ice sheets are melting and sea levels rising. Most of the passionate debate about contemporary climate change revolves around extreme weather events and sea level rises. The melting of ice caps and the increased danger of flooding are no trivial matter. But the experience of the Medieval Warm Period tells us that the silent and oft-ignored killer is drought, even during a period of mild warming. The computer projections for drought in an anthropogenically warmed world, described in chapter 13, are frightening. We already know that some 20 million to 30 million tropical farmers perished as a result of droughts during the nineteenth century, when there were far fewer people on earth. Now we are entering a period of sustained warming with millions of people already at risk, living as they do on agriculturally marginal lands, or, in the case of Arizona and California, in huge cities looting water from aquifers and rivers.
If the scientific evidence was so definitive, there would be no need to make the above statement. If this was a search for the truth, then a skeptical approach would be encouraged and a search for proof would include the possibility of being proved wrong. Fagan isn’t interested in that.
The primary focus of the book is the medieval warming period from 800-1300AD. He covers all areas of the world and primarily discusses the impact of droughts-which was the main force driving communities to act. Here is an excerpt on one group:
How can we know how ancient communities responded to climate change, to perceived changes in their environment? We cannot reconstruct ancient minds. But we can examine Mande social memory, which couples their existence to the real world in complex ways. People surely had social memory of climate change, of catastrophic droughts and floods, perhaps, like today, associated in their minds with the names of individuals who were victims of the disaster and even named after them, or with a group of people, such as ironworkers, who are perceived to have occult powers. They preserve generations of knowledge about climatic shifts and environmental conditions, and often predict impending changes and offer strategies to combat them. At issue here is the question of authority to make decisions for the future where climatic and other hazards wait unseen. Who can handle such matters? Who can be trusted not to abuse the dangerous knowledge of climate change and appropriate social responses for personal gain? In Mande society, climatic prediction is not the disinterested, scientific forecast of a climatologist. Every predictor also has responsibilities in the domain of social action, so his or her predictions are a critical link between climate change in the objective world and the perceived world on which people are going to act.
Overall, the book was not very exciting to read. It was not a surprise to see Fagan praise Algore multiple times for raising the warming alarm. Mann’s “Hockey Stick” and the Hadley Centre also come in for much praise. I had a hard time taking him seriously with the obvious slant. I have no doubt about global warming but the impact of humans is not proved. Hoped to learn something valuable from him. Didn’t. 2 Stars
…we’ve entered a time of sustained warming, which dates back to at least 1860, propelled in large part by human activity—by the green-house gases from fossil fuels.
The prolonged debate over anthropogenic global warming is over, for the scientific evidence documenting our contributions to a much warmer world of the future is now beyond the stage of controversy. Now the discussions are changing focus, as we grapple with the long-term problems of reducing pollutants and living with the consequences of a world where ice sheets are melting and sea levels rising. Most of the passionate debate about contemporary climate change revolves around extreme weather events and sea level rises. The melting of ice caps and the increased danger of flooding are no trivial matter. But the experience of the Medieval Warm Period tells us that the silent and oft-ignored killer is drought, even during a period of mild warming. The computer projections for drought in an anthropogenically warmed world, described in chapter 13, are frightening. We already know that some 20 million to 30 million tropical farmers perished as a result of droughts during the nineteenth century, when there were far fewer people on earth. Now we are entering a period of sustained warming with millions of people already at risk, living as they do on agriculturally marginal lands, or, in the case of Arizona and California, in huge cities looting water from aquifers and rivers.
If the scientific evidence was so definitive, there would be no need to make the above statement. If this was a search for the truth, then a skeptical approach would be encouraged and a search for proof would include the possibility of being proved wrong. Fagan isn’t interested in that.
The primary focus of the book is the medieval warming period from 800-1300AD. He covers all areas of the world and primarily discusses the impact of droughts-which was the main force driving communities to act. Here is an excerpt on one group:
How can we know how ancient communities responded to climate change, to perceived changes in their environment? We cannot reconstruct ancient minds. But we can examine Mande social memory, which couples their existence to the real world in complex ways. People surely had social memory of climate change, of catastrophic droughts and floods, perhaps, like today, associated in their minds with the names of individuals who were victims of the disaster and even named after them, or with a group of people, such as ironworkers, who are perceived to have occult powers. They preserve generations of knowledge about climatic shifts and environmental conditions, and often predict impending changes and offer strategies to combat them. At issue here is the question of authority to make decisions for the future where climatic and other hazards wait unseen. Who can handle such matters? Who can be trusted not to abuse the dangerous knowledge of climate change and appropriate social responses for personal gain? In Mande society, climatic prediction is not the disinterested, scientific forecast of a climatologist. Every predictor also has responsibilities in the domain of social action, so his or her predictions are a critical link between climate change in the objective world and the perceived world on which people are going to act.
Overall, the book was not very exciting to read. It was not a surprise to see Fagan praise Algore multiple times for raising the warming alarm. Mann’s “Hockey Stick” and the Hadley Centre also come in for much praise. I had a hard time taking him seriously with the obvious slant. I have no doubt about global warming but the impact of humans is not proved. Hoped to learn something valuable from him. Didn’t. 2 Stars
April 17, 2009
Like Guns, Germs and Steel, which is Jared Diamond’s masterpiece, The Great Warming is one of those grand sweeping books that covers centuries of civilizations around the planet. To summarize: it’s about global climate, and the winners and losers a warmer climate creates. When the planet gets warmer, most places get drier. Then it gets complicated. And not very cheerful.
The Great Warming focuses on the Medieval period from about 800-1300. It starts with Western and Northern Europe, one of the great winners during this period. As Europe warmed and became somewhat less rainy, good things happened for Europe’s farmers. The growing season got about three weeks longer. That, combined with a few critical farming technological innovations (better plows, more efficient horse harnesses, 3-field crop rotation), meant lots bigger harvests. And, for the first and last time, vineyards thrived in England. It also meant huge population growth (from about 30 million to 85 million during 1100-1350) and widespread deforestation. The economic surpluses of this era were also a great boost for cathedral-building, to the enduring benefit of European tourism a few centuries later.
Meanwhile, as the North Atlantic warmed and the ice retreated, the Norse spread westward, to Iceland in late 800’s and later to Greenland and even Eastern Canada, as far south as L’Anse au Meadows at the northern tip of Newfoundland.
Then came the Little Ice Age starting in the early 1300’s and lasting until the early 1800’s. Helped along by the arrival of the Black Death in 1347 and the large drop in crop harvests, the population of Europe crashed, and took 300 years or more to recover. The Norse populations of Greenland died out altogether by 1450.
[Unexpected benefit of the Little Ice Age: The English enjoyed centuries of white Christmases, leading to a whole catalog of Christmas carols about a snowy English countryside. Had it looked like the water-logged scenes of rural England in January today, would we ever have had Jingle Bells?]
Although Europe thrived during the Medieval Warming, much of the rest of the planet was plunged into drought. And that’s what most of the rest of the book is about. A few examples include:
• Mongolia and Northern China: These areas generally became drier. The Tang dynasty fell by the early 900’s as crops failed. Much later, as the Mongolian steppes dried out, the Mongols under Genghis Khan hit the saddle in the early 1200’s and conquered a good part of the Asian land mass, from northern China to Russia and even as far as Poland, before the rains returned and the Mongols settled down once again.
• Western North America: If you have ever visited the ruins of Chaco Canyon, the Canyon de Chelly or Mesa Verde, you’ve seen some of the Indian villages and ceremonial centers that were abandoned due to the mega-droughts that struck during the Medieval Warming period in the American West. These peoples dispersed to flee starvation in the 1100’s.
• Central America: In the southern lowlands of the Mayan Empire, which includes such great cities as Tikal in Guatemala and Copan in Honduras, the droughts came early during this period. By about the early 900’s, these cities had fallen. Highly dependent on sophisticated water management systems to sustain agriculture, when these failed during extended droughts, the city-states collapsed. Other factors contributed heavily: invasion from Mexico, overpopulation, a political system that was a quasi-theocracy supporting a small literate elite, wars between the city states... But drought was a major contributing factor that helped bring the whole system crashing down.
After a while, this catalog of civilizations and their climatic / political / demographic histories over a period of multiple centuries can become somewhat overwhelming, but you don’t need to read the whole book to get the idea. Make sure you read the final chapter, which looks at some of the implications for today’s situation. Since 1860, the planetary thermometer has been rising steadily upward, and at an increasing rate. Since a hotter planet is a drier planet, places that are semi-arid or have uncertain rainfall today are going to be in more and more trouble. Today, many of those places are in the world’s poorest places, particularly in Africa, parts of South America and parts of Asia. Drought, famine and mass movements of refugees look like a probable scenario.
If you live in California as I do, it’s pretty sobering to consider the historical parallels with the medieval era. Overwhelmingly, this is a dry state getting drier every year, even as its population continues to climb. Good thing we re-did the landscaping and took out the lawn this year. Next step: buying land in British Columbia.
The Great Warming focuses on the Medieval period from about 800-1300. It starts with Western and Northern Europe, one of the great winners during this period. As Europe warmed and became somewhat less rainy, good things happened for Europe’s farmers. The growing season got about three weeks longer. That, combined with a few critical farming technological innovations (better plows, more efficient horse harnesses, 3-field crop rotation), meant lots bigger harvests. And, for the first and last time, vineyards thrived in England. It also meant huge population growth (from about 30 million to 85 million during 1100-1350) and widespread deforestation. The economic surpluses of this era were also a great boost for cathedral-building, to the enduring benefit of European tourism a few centuries later.
Meanwhile, as the North Atlantic warmed and the ice retreated, the Norse spread westward, to Iceland in late 800’s and later to Greenland and even Eastern Canada, as far south as L’Anse au Meadows at the northern tip of Newfoundland.
Then came the Little Ice Age starting in the early 1300’s and lasting until the early 1800’s. Helped along by the arrival of the Black Death in 1347 and the large drop in crop harvests, the population of Europe crashed, and took 300 years or more to recover. The Norse populations of Greenland died out altogether by 1450.
[Unexpected benefit of the Little Ice Age: The English enjoyed centuries of white Christmases, leading to a whole catalog of Christmas carols about a snowy English countryside. Had it looked like the water-logged scenes of rural England in January today, would we ever have had Jingle Bells?]
Although Europe thrived during the Medieval Warming, much of the rest of the planet was plunged into drought. And that’s what most of the rest of the book is about. A few examples include:
• Mongolia and Northern China: These areas generally became drier. The Tang dynasty fell by the early 900’s as crops failed. Much later, as the Mongolian steppes dried out, the Mongols under Genghis Khan hit the saddle in the early 1200’s and conquered a good part of the Asian land mass, from northern China to Russia and even as far as Poland, before the rains returned and the Mongols settled down once again.
• Western North America: If you have ever visited the ruins of Chaco Canyon, the Canyon de Chelly or Mesa Verde, you’ve seen some of the Indian villages and ceremonial centers that were abandoned due to the mega-droughts that struck during the Medieval Warming period in the American West. These peoples dispersed to flee starvation in the 1100’s.
• Central America: In the southern lowlands of the Mayan Empire, which includes such great cities as Tikal in Guatemala and Copan in Honduras, the droughts came early during this period. By about the early 900’s, these cities had fallen. Highly dependent on sophisticated water management systems to sustain agriculture, when these failed during extended droughts, the city-states collapsed. Other factors contributed heavily: invasion from Mexico, overpopulation, a political system that was a quasi-theocracy supporting a small literate elite, wars between the city states... But drought was a major contributing factor that helped bring the whole system crashing down.
After a while, this catalog of civilizations and their climatic / political / demographic histories over a period of multiple centuries can become somewhat overwhelming, but you don’t need to read the whole book to get the idea. Make sure you read the final chapter, which looks at some of the implications for today’s situation. Since 1860, the planetary thermometer has been rising steadily upward, and at an increasing rate. Since a hotter planet is a drier planet, places that are semi-arid or have uncertain rainfall today are going to be in more and more trouble. Today, many of those places are in the world’s poorest places, particularly in Africa, parts of South America and parts of Asia. Drought, famine and mass movements of refugees look like a probable scenario.
If you live in California as I do, it’s pretty sobering to consider the historical parallels with the medieval era. Overwhelmingly, this is a dry state getting drier every year, even as its population continues to climb. Good thing we re-did the landscaping and took out the lawn this year. Next step: buying land in British Columbia.
December 29, 2019
Широка панорама Середньовічного теплого періоду (800—1300 рр.), яка охоплює практично весь світ — Європа, Північна й Південна Америки, Африка, Середня й Східна Азія, Океанія. Браян доводить, що зміна клімату в минулому спричинялася як до розквіту (збільшення врожаїв в Європі, подорожі вікінгів до Америки, колонізація полінезійцями островів Тихого океану), так і до занепаду цивілізацій (Південна й Мезоамерика, Індія). Зміна напрямку вітрів для мореплавців, зміна температури для рільників, а надто різна кількість опадів для посушливих регіонів — все це мало вирішальне значення для виживання не тільки окремих людей, а й цілих суспільств.
Хороша книжка, якщо пропустити ідеологічні вступ і післямову, в яких автор палко доводить, що нинішні кліматичні зміни набагато серйозніші, а редактор українського видання палко доводить протилежне, і все це разом скидається не на науку, а на цирк.
Хороша книжка, якщо пропустити ідеологічні вступ і післямову, в яких автор палко доводить, що нинішні кліматичні зміни набагато серйозніші, а редактор українського видання палко доводить протилежне, і все це разом скидається не на науку, а на цирк.
September 16, 2012
Back in the '70s, the media was rife with concern over the cooling climate and the "new ice age" that was possible going to end life as we knew it. Volumes of scientific research supported the contention that mankiind's influence was responsible for the coming catastrophe.
Twenty-five years later, "gloabal warming" was the alarm du jour. Dessertification of crop lands, rising sea levels and loss of life were all but ensured. Mankind was to blame and the only way to save ourselves was by eliminating the use of fossil fuels. Volumes of scientific evidence supported the inevitability of the tragedy to come.
Today, global warming has been replaced by "climate change:" some areas will get hotter; some areas will get colder; some drier; some wetter. The distruptions this causes will, naturally, be cataclismic...at least according to the popular media.
This book, written from the perspective of a historian/social anthropologist, has one clear message: huge climate changes have shaped our past and will continue to shape our futures.
For all practical purposes, the book details the societal changes that occurred throughout the world as a result of the medieval warming--how, as a result of climate changes which caused European average temperatures to rise a few degrees F. for a few centuries, what had been tundra in Europe became productive crop land. This led to cultural and social changes that permitted the expansion of cities and the divisions of labor which then permitted the industrial revolution to occur. At the same time, this very same climatic change caused changes in precipitation that tremendously reduced the influence of societies elsewhere in the world such as native American populations in the Southwest U.S. and Peru.
But what I found most interesting about this book was how un-politicized its treatment of climate change was. Climate change is--and was--a fact, throughout the time man has been on Earth. Irrespective of what we do, it will occur. Our challenge is not to control climate change. Our challenge is to adapt to it.
Twenty-five years later, "gloabal warming" was the alarm du jour. Dessertification of crop lands, rising sea levels and loss of life were all but ensured. Mankind was to blame and the only way to save ourselves was by eliminating the use of fossil fuels. Volumes of scientific evidence supported the inevitability of the tragedy to come.
Today, global warming has been replaced by "climate change:" some areas will get hotter; some areas will get colder; some drier; some wetter. The distruptions this causes will, naturally, be cataclismic...at least according to the popular media.
This book, written from the perspective of a historian/social anthropologist, has one clear message: huge climate changes have shaped our past and will continue to shape our futures.
For all practical purposes, the book details the societal changes that occurred throughout the world as a result of the medieval warming--how, as a result of climate changes which caused European average temperatures to rise a few degrees F. for a few centuries, what had been tundra in Europe became productive crop land. This led to cultural and social changes that permitted the expansion of cities and the divisions of labor which then permitted the industrial revolution to occur. At the same time, this very same climatic change caused changes in precipitation that tremendously reduced the influence of societies elsewhere in the world such as native American populations in the Southwest U.S. and Peru.
But what I found most interesting about this book was how un-politicized its treatment of climate change was. Climate change is--and was--a fact, throughout the time man has been on Earth. Irrespective of what we do, it will occur. Our challenge is not to control climate change. Our challenge is to adapt to it.
October 13, 2020
Fagan relates fascinatingly detailed evidence on medieval climate shifts and their effects on historic events around the world. He aligns data from pollen samples and lake sediments with the collapse of urban civilizations in Mexico and Cambodia, or the rise of nomadic empires like that of Genghis Khan. A picture emerges of what happens when temperatures rise as they are rising now. And the picture is not pretty. Over most of the world it involves drought and famine, with millions of refugees on the move. The vulnerability of civilization appears stark. And of course, "The analogies to modern-day California, with its aqueducts for water-hungry Los Angeles, or to cities such as Tucson, Arizona, with its shrinking aquifers and falling water table, are irresistible."
December 4, 2019
In this book Brian M. Fagan goes through the history of climate changes, and how those changes have effected human societies. It is an informative book, a little on the dry side, even though the author does try to put a human face on the people he is talking about by creating snapshots from their lives. He tells the reader if there isn’t enough evidence to say for certain, something about parts of his story. That gives what he claims, more weight than if he would not do this, but this is of course just a sign that he is a careful scientist.
It’s a story that I didn’t know much about, so I found it fascinating, but also a little sobering because it puts the current climate crisis into better focus. In the past, societies have fallen due to the effects of climate changes. Crops fail. There isn’t enough drinking water. People have to migrate somewhere else. But there is also the other side of the coin, which is that when one society fails because of these changes, another may thrive. So there have been this good / bad effect of many of these climate changes.
Fagan point out that the main danger involved in climate changes is drought, because how many things that can change as a result of that. If there isn’t enough water for agriculture for example, societies have to import the food from somewhere else, or move somewhere else. It’s simple. We don’t survive without water. Period. And even those that don’t think the current climate crisis isn’t man made, should give a thought to what will happen when these current climate changes will get more drastic than they already are.
This book, thought it is not without flaws, put a lot of things that I have been reading lately into better perspective. It shows what has happened in similar situations as the ones we are heading for, and therefore what is likely to happen this time around as well. Just think about it. A lot of these societies that fell because of drought were much smaller that the societies we have now. We have never in our history had as large a cities as we have now. That often means more pressure on the water gathering system. That means less room for drought. At least for some. I find it scary. Some have said that future wars will over water, and that may very well be. Water is central to all life.
It’s a story that I didn’t know much about, so I found it fascinating, but also a little sobering because it puts the current climate crisis into better focus. In the past, societies have fallen due to the effects of climate changes. Crops fail. There isn’t enough drinking water. People have to migrate somewhere else. But there is also the other side of the coin, which is that when one society fails because of these changes, another may thrive. So there have been this good / bad effect of many of these climate changes.
Fagan point out that the main danger involved in climate changes is drought, because how many things that can change as a result of that. If there isn’t enough water for agriculture for example, societies have to import the food from somewhere else, or move somewhere else. It’s simple. We don’t survive without water. Period. And even those that don’t think the current climate crisis isn’t man made, should give a thought to what will happen when these current climate changes will get more drastic than they already are.
This book, thought it is not without flaws, put a lot of things that I have been reading lately into better perspective. It shows what has happened in similar situations as the ones we are heading for, and therefore what is likely to happen this time around as well. Just think about it. A lot of these societies that fell because of drought were much smaller that the societies we have now. We have never in our history had as large a cities as we have now. That often means more pressure on the water gathering system. That means less room for drought. At least for some. I find it scary. Some have said that future wars will over water, and that may very well be. Water is central to all life.
September 30, 2015
Subtitle: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. Brian Fagan has written a few dozen books, and several of them have to do with past climatic changes. For example, he has written on the "Little Ice Age" between 1300 and 1850. This book is on a previous period, from roughly A.D. 800 to 1200, when Europe and much of the rest of the world was unusually warm.
Any book on a period of global warming, of course, is going to have as a (perhaps silent, but never far forgotten) backdrop, the current period of global warming, and what consequences it may have for us. Some may dislike this book's point of view because it asserts (mostly implicitly) that global warming of even a degree or two can have profound consequences, and even wreck some civilizations such as the Maya or Angkor. Others may dislike having it pointed out that, even in the absence of widespread burning of fossil fuels, the global temperature has varied over the centuries with large enough swings to change the weather. If you're trying to convince people that the 'delicate balance of nature' is being upended by the thoughtless greed of humanity, it may seem dangerously off-message to discuss, at great length, how climate change was already happening a thousand years ago.
Fortunately, Fagan seems to be fact-minded enough to ignore both objections.
The Great Warming has apparently been written about for over half a century, but in the last decade or two much new information has come to light. We have tree-ring derived estimates of climate change going back a couple millennia, for many different parts of the world. Something similar has been done with coral growth. Fagan introduces us to some historical records related to weather, which reflect different culture's particular hangups: in east Asia we have records of the day of the year when the cherry blossoms were first seen, whereas in France we have records going back centuries related to the grape harvests for wine.
It's a lot of different sources to put together, and then it has to be compared to what is known about history from more conventional sources. One of the interesting things Fagan points out is that often the conventional historical records gloss over the droughts and famines and floods, in favor of detailed discussions of military campaigns and royal infighting. Comparing it to the recently accumulated records on rainfall and the length of the growing season, however, and we can see that in many cases it was the abundance (or scarcity) of crops that was moving one nation or tribe to attack another. Were the people at the time unaware of what was really driving their history? Or was there just no market for a chronicler who wrote that Genghis Khan came storming out of central Asia to menace (and partially conquer) Europe and China because drought had caused the pasturage in his homelands to be unable to support the Mongols' population, and thus it was conquer or die? Chroniclers have always depended on patrons, and few patrons pay to have their actions reduced to climatic necessity.
There are also sources such as the Mayan historical records which have only been deciphered in the last few decades, and thus we have a lot more history to compare to the climate change indicators (tree rings, etc.). Fagan is very broad-ranging in his analysis of the history of these centuries: he spends as much time on the Mayans and Pueblo as on the Greenland Norse and other European (or European-derived) people. Some of them, like the pre-Incan civilizations of the Moche and Chimu, are not histories I have heard before. The arrival of the Spanish conquistadores is placed in a much greater context if the Aztec and Incan empires are not static entities prior to their arrival, but the latest groups to win at King of the Hill, standing atop the rubble of empires that came before.
In a similar way, it sheds some additional light on some of our current cities such as L.A., Phoenix, and Las Vegas, to read tales of the Pueblo in southwest North America and the Angkor in southeast Asia. To be perfectly frank, I don't believe that cities of anything like their current size will exist in Phoenix or Las Vegas half a century from now, and while the position of Los Angeles next to the ocean improves their odds somewhat, the sustainable water sources near there at least raise the question.
Fagan spends almost no time discussing the parallels to modern questions about climate change, although in the last chapter he does for a bit. This is a good choice on his part, since most readers of this book will have doubtless heard much about that already. Voices on both sides of that debate (yes, there are more than two sides, but it is not as if they are not aligned along two predominant planes) have mostly analyzed this question from underinformed positions. Climate change and resource exhaustion have been encountered before in human history, but up until now the people who grappled with the consequences had no option of learning what the experience of others had been. We, unlike the peoples of the past, do have such an option; best that we take advantage of it. Fagan's book is a good place to start.
Any book on a period of global warming, of course, is going to have as a (perhaps silent, but never far forgotten) backdrop, the current period of global warming, and what consequences it may have for us. Some may dislike this book's point of view because it asserts (mostly implicitly) that global warming of even a degree or two can have profound consequences, and even wreck some civilizations such as the Maya or Angkor. Others may dislike having it pointed out that, even in the absence of widespread burning of fossil fuels, the global temperature has varied over the centuries with large enough swings to change the weather. If you're trying to convince people that the 'delicate balance of nature' is being upended by the thoughtless greed of humanity, it may seem dangerously off-message to discuss, at great length, how climate change was already happening a thousand years ago.
Fortunately, Fagan seems to be fact-minded enough to ignore both objections.
The Great Warming has apparently been written about for over half a century, but in the last decade or two much new information has come to light. We have tree-ring derived estimates of climate change going back a couple millennia, for many different parts of the world. Something similar has been done with coral growth. Fagan introduces us to some historical records related to weather, which reflect different culture's particular hangups: in east Asia we have records of the day of the year when the cherry blossoms were first seen, whereas in France we have records going back centuries related to the grape harvests for wine.
It's a lot of different sources to put together, and then it has to be compared to what is known about history from more conventional sources. One of the interesting things Fagan points out is that often the conventional historical records gloss over the droughts and famines and floods, in favor of detailed discussions of military campaigns and royal infighting. Comparing it to the recently accumulated records on rainfall and the length of the growing season, however, and we can see that in many cases it was the abundance (or scarcity) of crops that was moving one nation or tribe to attack another. Were the people at the time unaware of what was really driving their history? Or was there just no market for a chronicler who wrote that Genghis Khan came storming out of central Asia to menace (and partially conquer) Europe and China because drought had caused the pasturage in his homelands to be unable to support the Mongols' population, and thus it was conquer or die? Chroniclers have always depended on patrons, and few patrons pay to have their actions reduced to climatic necessity.
There are also sources such as the Mayan historical records which have only been deciphered in the last few decades, and thus we have a lot more history to compare to the climate change indicators (tree rings, etc.). Fagan is very broad-ranging in his analysis of the history of these centuries: he spends as much time on the Mayans and Pueblo as on the Greenland Norse and other European (or European-derived) people. Some of them, like the pre-Incan civilizations of the Moche and Chimu, are not histories I have heard before. The arrival of the Spanish conquistadores is placed in a much greater context if the Aztec and Incan empires are not static entities prior to their arrival, but the latest groups to win at King of the Hill, standing atop the rubble of empires that came before.
In a similar way, it sheds some additional light on some of our current cities such as L.A., Phoenix, and Las Vegas, to read tales of the Pueblo in southwest North America and the Angkor in southeast Asia. To be perfectly frank, I don't believe that cities of anything like their current size will exist in Phoenix or Las Vegas half a century from now, and while the position of Los Angeles next to the ocean improves their odds somewhat, the sustainable water sources near there at least raise the question.
Fagan spends almost no time discussing the parallels to modern questions about climate change, although in the last chapter he does for a bit. This is a good choice on his part, since most readers of this book will have doubtless heard much about that already. Voices on both sides of that debate (yes, there are more than two sides, but it is not as if they are not aligned along two predominant planes) have mostly analyzed this question from underinformed positions. Climate change and resource exhaustion have been encountered before in human history, but up until now the people who grappled with the consequences had no option of learning what the experience of others had been. We, unlike the peoples of the past, do have such an option; best that we take advantage of it. Fagan's book is a good place to start.
May 16, 2011
Brian Fagan a retired professor of anthropology at the University of California, Santa Barbara, wrote “The Great Warming” which provides an exquisite reasoning to this debate. Disregarding the “chatterers and doomsday sayers,” Fagan states that “almost none of these self-proclaimed prophets bother to look back at climate change in earlier centuries and millennia; except for politically charged discussions as to whether the world was warmer a thousand years ago than it is today (Preface xvii, Fagan).” The Great Warming eludes this worn controversy. “The globe is warming,” Fagan assures us, and “the primary cause of that warming is human activity (14, Fagan).” With that established, Fagan shifts our focus back a turn of a century (one thousand years) to indicate warming climate reports unknown qualifications as a cause for probable doomsday theories.
Europe endured a “great warming” that contributed somewhat immense temperatures and amplified rainfall. The aftermath for Europe was paradise for most, more food, less disease, and a development in science. Though little was known, the entire globe was experiencing these increased climatic temperatures, which eventually led to vast aridity around the world.
Relentless droughts, many which lead to countless deaths, were widespread in central Asia, northern Africa, western South America, western and southwestern North America, and much of Australia. Author, Brian Fagan, manages to do lots of exploration on historical temperature changes, including inspection of tree rings, coral alterations, ice cores, and sediment digging, by numerous scientists from an abundant of locations, over the past 100 years. Though these temperature changes are extremely minor, they have extensive effects on crops, soils, grasses, trees, wildlife, lakes and rivers, glaciers, deserts, ocean currents, and even major wind patterns.
The book, The Great Warming, was a thought-provoking read, with remarkable detail and first class narrative skills. If you want to read a factual, intriguing book that tends to keep you amused, this book is a fantastic read. From the arid regions of the Chimur civilization, to the dramatic temperature falls of The Medieval Warming period, we can conclude global warming is happening. The question is, what will we do to protect the future of this planet?
Europe endured a “great warming” that contributed somewhat immense temperatures and amplified rainfall. The aftermath for Europe was paradise for most, more food, less disease, and a development in science. Though little was known, the entire globe was experiencing these increased climatic temperatures, which eventually led to vast aridity around the world.
Relentless droughts, many which lead to countless deaths, were widespread in central Asia, northern Africa, western South America, western and southwestern North America, and much of Australia. Author, Brian Fagan, manages to do lots of exploration on historical temperature changes, including inspection of tree rings, coral alterations, ice cores, and sediment digging, by numerous scientists from an abundant of locations, over the past 100 years. Though these temperature changes are extremely minor, they have extensive effects on crops, soils, grasses, trees, wildlife, lakes and rivers, glaciers, deserts, ocean currents, and even major wind patterns.
The book, The Great Warming, was a thought-provoking read, with remarkable detail and first class narrative skills. If you want to read a factual, intriguing book that tends to keep you amused, this book is a fantastic read. From the arid regions of the Chimur civilization, to the dramatic temperature falls of The Medieval Warming period, we can conclude global warming is happening. The question is, what will we do to protect the future of this planet?
September 10, 2024
Більше у моєму книжковому Telegram та YouTube-каналі.
Попри свою науковість ця книга створена для найширшого кола читачів: буквально для всіх, хто хоче зрозуміти зв'язок між кліматом планети та його впливом на людство (та навпаки). Автор спокійно, на прикладах та з найрізноманітнішими поясненнями складних процесів та термінів пояснює цю взаємодію.
І попри виражену науковість, книжка присвячена не стільки самому клімату, як тому, як древні суспільства давали раду цим змінам, зазнаючи загибелі чи, навпаки, небувалого піднесення. Читати це зараз, у час, коли глобальна температура вже піднялася на рівень (чи навіть вище) із Середньовічним теплим періодом - повчально та надихаюче. Сучасна цивілізація або зробить висновки на основі минулого, або пройде через жорстокі жорнова перетворень. І ця книга чудово допоможе зробити правильні висновки.
Я насправді раджу цю книгу всім, хто хоч трошки зацікавлений у темі. Хто хоч раз замислювався про те, чому вчені так багато говорять про зміни клімату. Чи про те, чому останні літа такі пекельно спекотні, а зими - теплі та безсніжні.
І останнє: щодо моєї оцінки. Вона надзвичайно суб'єктивна. І має три зірочки через те, що я вже багато знала з курсу кліматології в університеті, тож мені було нудно. Хоча деякі цікаві факти я все одно знайшла для себе.
Попри свою науковість ця книга створена для найширшого кола читачів: буквально для всіх, хто хоче зрозуміти зв'язок між кліматом планети та його впливом на людство (та навпаки). Автор спокійно, на прикладах та з найрізноманітнішими поясненнями складних процесів та термінів пояснює цю взаємодію.
І попри виражену науковість, книжка присвячена не стільки самому клімату, як тому, як древні суспільства давали раду цим змінам, зазнаючи загибелі чи, навпаки, небувалого піднесення. Читати це зараз, у час, коли глобальна температура вже піднялася на рівень (чи навіть вище) із Середньовічним теплим періодом - повчально та надихаюче. Сучасна цивілізація або зробить висновки на основі минулого, або пройде через жорстокі жорнова перетворень. І ця книга чудово допоможе зробити правильні висновки.
Я насправді раджу цю книгу всім, хто хоч трошки зацікавлений у темі. Хто хоч раз замислювався про те, чому вчені так багато говорять про зміни клімату. Чи про те, чому останні літа такі пекельно спекотні, а зими - теплі та безсніжні.
І останнє: щодо моєї оцінки. Вона надзвичайно суб'єктивна. І має три зірочки через те, що я вже багато знала з курсу кліматології в університеті, тож мені було нудно. Хоча деякі цікаві факти я все одно знайшла для себе.
January 19, 2013
What I liked the best about this book is it doesn't just concentrate on Europe, or North America. Instead, it has chapters on China, the Monsoon belt, the South Pacific, Peru, Canada & Greenland, Mongolia & The Middle East, and North Africa, as well as Europe and North America. Admittedly I had a few "Hmmm" moments about some of the information on the South Pacific (e.g. the length of time New Zealand has been inhabited) and this always gives me little qualms about other information I don't know enough to question.
The writing was fine, without having that extra something that turns a good read into a great read. As for the content; OMG we are so screwed!! I don't even think it matters if you think climate change is occuring through normal cyclical fluctuations in global climate, or caused by industrialization.
An interesting read.
The writing was fine, without having that extra something that turns a good read into a great read. As for the content; OMG we are so screwed!! I don't even think it matters if you think climate change is occuring through normal cyclical fluctuations in global climate, or caused by industrialization.
An interesting read.
August 7, 2008
This is a book that suffers from its strengths. Fagan is a scientist; he doesn't indulge in conjecture. He frequently admits that there is no way to know details from nearly a thousand years ago. There are a raft of footnotes. All of which go a long way to reassure the reader that this is thoughtful, well-considered book.
Unfortunately, it swings into overly-technical analyses at times. Fagan tries to balance this off by creating little scenarios to give some atmosphere, these tend to jar.
It's a comprehensive book, covering virtually all of the world. Ultimately, it's exhausting.
Fagan is obviously very knowledgeable. An anthropologist, he can discuss ice cores and sailing techniques with authority.
It's a worthy but not overly exciting read.
Unfortunately, it swings into overly-technical analyses at times. Fagan tries to balance this off by creating little scenarios to give some atmosphere, these tend to jar.
It's a comprehensive book, covering virtually all of the world. Ultimately, it's exhausting.
Fagan is obviously very knowledgeable. An anthropologist, he can discuss ice cores and sailing techniques with authority.
It's a worthy but not overly exciting read.
January 17, 2009
From the tenth to the fifteenth centuries AD, the earth experienced a rise in temperature that changed climate worldwide. Subtle shifts in the environment that accompanied that change had far-reaching effects on human society, culture, economics, and daily life the consequences of which have reverberated down all the centuries since.
In Western Europe, longer summers gave bountiful harvests and population growth which in turn led to a tremendous cultural flowering. Great cathedrals rose, thanks to the surpluses generated by those harvests and the increasing human population and the labor it provided. The Great Warming set the stage for the Renassiance and everything that followed.
In the Artic, Inuit and Norse sailors connected across thousands of miles, the Norse trading precious iron goods for food, furs, ivory, and other valuable commodities from the Inuit. In the Pacific, new wind patterns arose, and Polynesian sailors rode the winds to settle the remotest islands on Earth.
Other regions, however, weren't so fortunate. There the new warmth brought drought, famine, sickness, and the collapse of civilizations. In North and Central America, great societies collapsed, and the tremendous building complexes of Chaco Canyon and the Mayan Yucatan were left desolate.
As he did in the companion volume to this one, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300-1850, Dr. Fagan here presents a scientific detective story, showing how centuries-old weather patterns can be constructed from fragmentary evidence as well as a brilliant, timely historical narrative.
As Dr. Fagan says, a study of this earlier Great Warming suggests that we may be underestimating the power of climate change to disrupt our lives and our civilization today. Our own vulnerability to drought is, as he puts it, the "silent elephant in the room" -- everyone's room.
There is also the question of what might happen if the Sun, which seems to want to be cooler right now, decides to stay that way for centuries as it did during the Little Ice Age of 1300-1850. That return of the cold, however transient it may have been, brought great hardship to many places that had basked in the Sun during the warm period that had preceded it, and its challenges changed lives and civilizations the world over in many ways, both for worse and for the better. No matter which way climate change goes, its impact on Earthly life in general and us in particular should never be underestimated -- and, due to numerous factors, not the least of which is the behavior of the Sun, climate never stands still, never gets to a certain point and never again changes. It is always the ultimate regulator of life, sculpting seedtime and harvest, peace and war, health and disease in infinite ways, and wisdom should make us stay alert to its trends and vagueries.
As always, in The Great Warming, Dr. Fagan gives us some of the best work in anthropology today. This is a meticulously researched, well-written book by an acclaimed professor and student of humanity, a treat to read for pleasure as well as for information and wisdom.
In Western Europe, longer summers gave bountiful harvests and population growth which in turn led to a tremendous cultural flowering. Great cathedrals rose, thanks to the surpluses generated by those harvests and the increasing human population and the labor it provided. The Great Warming set the stage for the Renassiance and everything that followed.
In the Artic, Inuit and Norse sailors connected across thousands of miles, the Norse trading precious iron goods for food, furs, ivory, and other valuable commodities from the Inuit. In the Pacific, new wind patterns arose, and Polynesian sailors rode the winds to settle the remotest islands on Earth.
Other regions, however, weren't so fortunate. There the new warmth brought drought, famine, sickness, and the collapse of civilizations. In North and Central America, great societies collapsed, and the tremendous building complexes of Chaco Canyon and the Mayan Yucatan were left desolate.
As he did in the companion volume to this one, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300-1850, Dr. Fagan here presents a scientific detective story, showing how centuries-old weather patterns can be constructed from fragmentary evidence as well as a brilliant, timely historical narrative.
As Dr. Fagan says, a study of this earlier Great Warming suggests that we may be underestimating the power of climate change to disrupt our lives and our civilization today. Our own vulnerability to drought is, as he puts it, the "silent elephant in the room" -- everyone's room.
There is also the question of what might happen if the Sun, which seems to want to be cooler right now, decides to stay that way for centuries as it did during the Little Ice Age of 1300-1850. That return of the cold, however transient it may have been, brought great hardship to many places that had basked in the Sun during the warm period that had preceded it, and its challenges changed lives and civilizations the world over in many ways, both for worse and for the better. No matter which way climate change goes, its impact on Earthly life in general and us in particular should never be underestimated -- and, due to numerous factors, not the least of which is the behavior of the Sun, climate never stands still, never gets to a certain point and never again changes. It is always the ultimate regulator of life, sculpting seedtime and harvest, peace and war, health and disease in infinite ways, and wisdom should make us stay alert to its trends and vagueries.
As always, in The Great Warming, Dr. Fagan gives us some of the best work in anthropology today. This is a meticulously researched, well-written book by an acclaimed professor and student of humanity, a treat to read for pleasure as well as for information and wisdom.
November 23, 2017
It's an overview of climate change during the Medieval Warm Period, which this book says was from 800 to 1300. (Hmmmmmm.....other books I've read say more like 1000-1300 or 950-1300. Not sure how much I trust this one in comparison).
The part I got the most out of was on Europe. There, you had a population explosion, new plow design, the three field system arise, and an explosion in towns. The increase in farming led to massive deforestation. There was also an increase in farming. By 1300, the economy went south.
Elsewhere, it was really dry in central Asia, and that may have created pressure that led to Genghis Khan's conquests. It was warmer and drought-ridden in Africa's Sahel. The US West had mega-droughts; the worst of the last several thousand years. The acorn rose in California in these circumstances. The Anasazi eventually collapsed. There was less water in Central America and that couldn't have been good for the Maya. Humidity returned by 1100, but that was too late for the Mayans. Peru had droughts. El Nino played a role in this all. Easter Island was settled. We don't know much of the weather by Polynesia but there is reason to think that part of the world cooled down, which could've led to the new waves of sailing exploration. East Africa had long droughts. China was warmer but also had violent climate swings. This could've played a role in steppe barbarians getting more aggressive by the 9th century. An epilogue notes that now people worry about climate change and icebergs melting - but the main danger theme of this time period was massive drought. It's a slower motion killer, but still very dangerous.
The part I got the most out of was on Europe. There, you had a population explosion, new plow design, the three field system arise, and an explosion in towns. The increase in farming led to massive deforestation. There was also an increase in farming. By 1300, the economy went south.
Elsewhere, it was really dry in central Asia, and that may have created pressure that led to Genghis Khan's conquests. It was warmer and drought-ridden in Africa's Sahel. The US West had mega-droughts; the worst of the last several thousand years. The acorn rose in California in these circumstances. The Anasazi eventually collapsed. There was less water in Central America and that couldn't have been good for the Maya. Humidity returned by 1100, but that was too late for the Mayans. Peru had droughts. El Nino played a role in this all. Easter Island was settled. We don't know much of the weather by Polynesia but there is reason to think that part of the world cooled down, which could've led to the new waves of sailing exploration. East Africa had long droughts. China was warmer but also had violent climate swings. This could've played a role in steppe barbarians getting more aggressive by the 9th century. An epilogue notes that now people worry about climate change and icebergs melting - but the main danger theme of this time period was massive drought. It's a slower motion killer, but still very dangerous.
October 5, 2009
I have to say that I found this book to be incredibly boring, but I did force myself to finish it. In my mind, if you're already having to force yourself to finish by chapter 2, the book probably isn't worth it.
I felt like the author was extremely intelligent and there were nuggets of truly fascinating history I had never known before throughout the book. And I think I have a better grasp of global climate and how interdependent regional climates are. And his little vignettes from each chapter for nicely done. But I had forgotten my archaeology classes and how boring they were. When archaeology is all you've got to go on, there's no faces, names, or even exact dates. And that can make the reading kind of dull. Plus, I really felt like the bug was longer than it needed to be.
In case you're wondering, the book is about the well-documented Medieval Warming Period where there was generally a couple degrees more of warmth worldwide. It was fascinating to read about the results of that. For Europe it was a boom because it's colder there, so suddenly they could grow more, etc. But for places already hot, it caused a lot of problem. Interestingly, and the author makes the point again and again, drought was the biggest killer. Anyway, I'm not a global warming kind of person, but it was interesting to read about what has happened in the past as a result of slight climactic change.
I felt like the author was extremely intelligent and there were nuggets of truly fascinating history I had never known before throughout the book. And I think I have a better grasp of global climate and how interdependent regional climates are. And his little vignettes from each chapter for nicely done. But I had forgotten my archaeology classes and how boring they were. When archaeology is all you've got to go on, there's no faces, names, or even exact dates. And that can make the reading kind of dull. Plus, I really felt like the bug was longer than it needed to be.
In case you're wondering, the book is about the well-documented Medieval Warming Period where there was generally a couple degrees more of warmth worldwide. It was fascinating to read about the results of that. For Europe it was a boom because it's colder there, so suddenly they could grow more, etc. But for places already hot, it caused a lot of problem. Interestingly, and the author makes the point again and again, drought was the biggest killer. Anyway, I'm not a global warming kind of person, but it was interesting to read about what has happened in the past as a result of slight climactic change.
April 29, 2016
Informative, though rather dry. I know there’s a lot of information involved, but I think the book would have flowed much better if Fagan had been able to complete one thought before continuing on to another, because there’s a lot of information. And some of the information was noted more than once, which didn’t help the readability of the book.
That said, some of the chapters were very interesting, which could be because they’re about areas in which I was already interested. But even knowing about the warming in Europe, the droughts in the American Southwest, Peru, the Yucatan peninsula, and Cambodia, and the collapse of Easter Island, it had never occurred to me to associate them as being caused by the same event. So Fagan’s widening of the effect of “The Medieval Warm Period,” to encompass the whole world made the book worth reading.
That said, some of the chapters were very interesting, which could be because they’re about areas in which I was already interested. But even knowing about the warming in Europe, the droughts in the American Southwest, Peru, the Yucatan peninsula, and Cambodia, and the collapse of Easter Island, it had never occurred to me to associate them as being caused by the same event. So Fagan’s widening of the effect of “The Medieval Warm Period,” to encompass the whole world made the book worth reading.
October 25, 2015
Excessive fluff abounds in all the chapters. Plus, Fagan relentlessly tries to pass off the hypothetical as sure science.
May 19, 2021
"Introduction"
7/10
Good history intro but very short.
The main issue is that he doesn't really explain what the book is about as clearly as he should. He gives us examples of historical warming and what it did, but he avoids details. When exactly did this temperature rise start? Did it flex? What years should we remember and focus on? What about the small ice ages and deaths they caused? This intro is more of a sales pitch with many points and not a direct systematic intro. You will leave the chapter a bit confused about what period he is talking about and what the global temperature was at what point. A list of temperatures in all centuries would help.
"1. A Time of Warming"
7,5/10
I relistened to the first 2 chapter. I tend to do that a lot when it's detailed stuff and I miss some stuff and can't properly judge a chapter.
There are things here that are hard to understand. It does feel a bit hectic. It's super fun, but there are several examples of things just being mentioned and not explained. For example, how come you could make wine in England hundreds of years ago? What was the weather there and why? The chapter answers the questions in a scientific way, but it's not answered right away and not concretely - as we lack clear evidence. I still don't understand what temperature is needed to produce wine.
"2. “The Mantle of the Poor”"
6,5/10
Still very detailed. But here he adds too many short statements about how people would have felt or what they wanted. Small statements that take away from the factual history. It's also a bit of a messy chapter with too many different points. I probably missed most points because while he understands why he makes the conclusions I'm just confused about why he says this or that. There are some good illustrations about how much forest was destroyed even in medieval Europe. These good parts make the chapter work.
"3. The Flail of God"
6,5/10
About how horses are important for war and transportation. This chapter feels a bit half-done. It's fine that he talks about horses in relation to Mongols, but there are many other cultures that used horses so this narrow focus gives you an incomplete picture. It's a nice chapter with lots of info, but just like the other chapters it feels like he's trying to say more than what he is saying. If he wanted to tell us how important horses are and how they starve in dry seasons it would be wise to mention a few historical examples of this happening and not just tell us it did happen in a culture.
"4. The Golden Trade of the Moors"
6,5/10
About Muslims in Africa, camels, African gold and Ghanaian/Nigerian magicians. It's a weird chapter with a lot of points about global warming that are not that convincing. Some magical snake ruling an African nation in return for a virgin each year is a cool story, but it feels a bit out of place in a chapter that starts out being about camels and gold. None of the single stories are expanded upon. Even the gold mines have not been found today so the best explanations are still old myths and magical stories which is not really something you can use to make any strong case for your claims.
"5. Inuit and Qadlunaat"
7/10
The Viking-Eskimo connection is very interesting. This chapter is about how Vikings settled Greenland and traveled to Canada during the warm period. But it's a weird chapter as it's largely about the artifacts from that time and some short descriptions of how Vikings and Eskimos lived. It feels like the chapter lacks a stronger connection to the plot of the book. Instead we often just read about cultures surviving or suffering due to changing weather conditions. Viking were just lucky to be able to settle Greenland. But when it got cold they all died.
"6. The Megadrought Epoch"
6/10
A bit weird and short chapter about American conditions for tribes. I’m not really sure what it is about or how the cultures looked like.
"7. Acorns and Pueblos"
6,5/10
Chaco Canyon. Another chapter about a culture living in difficult conditions. It’s not really about weather itself. It’s just that they lived in very arid conditions so it’s curious that they could survive in that part of USA that seems unliveable. We don’t really have written history from this culture so the author really has to bring his A game to make it work.
"8. Lords of the Water Mountains"
6/10
Was tired while listening to the chapter, but the book also lost its magic here and there is nothing deep to explore here it feels. It's just a history book jumping from culture to culture. To me it works when it's a chapter about a culture I have already looked into via books, photos and documentaries. That way I can imagine the culture and understand the chapter. Here it's yet another culture I know very little about which just makes it so much harder to follow along on. It would be smart to watch a short documentary about the culture before reading the chapter, but that applies to all chapters.
It's a fine charter for sure. I just didn't find it engaging, but there is a ton of great historical info here.
"9. The Lords of Chimor"
6/10
Chimor is another chapter that is hard for me to fully visualize.
"10. Bucking the Trades"
6,5/10
About wind on water in Polynesia and the possible long-range canoe travel in strong wind seasons which is only possible during some years. This feels a bit weird. Why are we suddenly studying travel via sailing?
I relistened to it to see what I missed. It really does seem to be a chapter about voyages. Weird. I guess it explains how weather influences where people settle.
"11. The Flying Fish Ocean"
6/10
About how bad weather causes mass starvation in India. Also a lot of points about Africa. Overall a confusing chapter that tackles too many cultures.
"12. China’s Sorrow"
6/10
How China overall looks like when looking at weather and fresh water.
"13. The Silent Elephant"
5,5/10
Largely moral preachings about modern global warming. Not that good because it’s stuff you already have heard from the endless amount of documentaries and talks about the issue. I guess he wanted to make the book relevant to our current lives. But preachings are always boring.
My final opinion on the book
I feel like the book starts out great, but just has too many small chapters and historical observations to be a clear history book with a singular focus which is a shame. It feels similar to the amazing Collapse by Diamond, but Collapse is more clear. In Collapse all single chapters are about a specific society collapsing so you always know what you are reading - some culture collapsing. Each chapter is an individual study. Here all chapters are about different stuff. It's all about water and how it gets hot or cold or disappears and then influences cultures, but it's just a ton of different ways that canals, rain, weather and food is influenced. So each chapter is its own thing and is too self-contained in the topic.
It's hard to judge the book. It's great history work for sure and very impressive. Though it's about societies not people and may feel a bit technical. But it's one of those history books that tries to be about one topic, but overall is just a
20 history lessons. Mosquito by Weingard is another book in this category. Seemingly about malaria, but overall just about many historical cultures with some small focus on malaria here and there. That audiobook I didn't get at all and forgot nearly everything about as it didn't feel like an overall message. This book at least has a bit stronger structure. You still read a ton of stuff you'll forget right away, but if you really focus you can always spot some clear overall hazy point. I think I missed some stuff and points in the book, but it's about weather changes and it's hard to really see any amazing new lesson here. It's stuff you know, but don't understand the details off.
It's a very impressive book with a ton of details about how things work. You'd for sure enjoy it, but while it's a big lesson it does become a bit more dull and less intellectual as you understand that it doesn't have some amazing deep insight.
7/10
Good history intro but very short.
The main issue is that he doesn't really explain what the book is about as clearly as he should. He gives us examples of historical warming and what it did, but he avoids details. When exactly did this temperature rise start? Did it flex? What years should we remember and focus on? What about the small ice ages and deaths they caused? This intro is more of a sales pitch with many points and not a direct systematic intro. You will leave the chapter a bit confused about what period he is talking about and what the global temperature was at what point. A list of temperatures in all centuries would help.
"1. A Time of Warming"
7,5/10
I relistened to the first 2 chapter. I tend to do that a lot when it's detailed stuff and I miss some stuff and can't properly judge a chapter.
There are things here that are hard to understand. It does feel a bit hectic. It's super fun, but there are several examples of things just being mentioned and not explained. For example, how come you could make wine in England hundreds of years ago? What was the weather there and why? The chapter answers the questions in a scientific way, but it's not answered right away and not concretely - as we lack clear evidence. I still don't understand what temperature is needed to produce wine.
"2. “The Mantle of the Poor”"
6,5/10
Still very detailed. But here he adds too many short statements about how people would have felt or what they wanted. Small statements that take away from the factual history. It's also a bit of a messy chapter with too many different points. I probably missed most points because while he understands why he makes the conclusions I'm just confused about why he says this or that. There are some good illustrations about how much forest was destroyed even in medieval Europe. These good parts make the chapter work.
"3. The Flail of God"
6,5/10
About how horses are important for war and transportation. This chapter feels a bit half-done. It's fine that he talks about horses in relation to Mongols, but there are many other cultures that used horses so this narrow focus gives you an incomplete picture. It's a nice chapter with lots of info, but just like the other chapters it feels like he's trying to say more than what he is saying. If he wanted to tell us how important horses are and how they starve in dry seasons it would be wise to mention a few historical examples of this happening and not just tell us it did happen in a culture.
"4. The Golden Trade of the Moors"
6,5/10
About Muslims in Africa, camels, African gold and Ghanaian/Nigerian magicians. It's a weird chapter with a lot of points about global warming that are not that convincing. Some magical snake ruling an African nation in return for a virgin each year is a cool story, but it feels a bit out of place in a chapter that starts out being about camels and gold. None of the single stories are expanded upon. Even the gold mines have not been found today so the best explanations are still old myths and magical stories which is not really something you can use to make any strong case for your claims.
"5. Inuit and Qadlunaat"
7/10
The Viking-Eskimo connection is very interesting. This chapter is about how Vikings settled Greenland and traveled to Canada during the warm period. But it's a weird chapter as it's largely about the artifacts from that time and some short descriptions of how Vikings and Eskimos lived. It feels like the chapter lacks a stronger connection to the plot of the book. Instead we often just read about cultures surviving or suffering due to changing weather conditions. Viking were just lucky to be able to settle Greenland. But when it got cold they all died.
"6. The Megadrought Epoch"
6/10
A bit weird and short chapter about American conditions for tribes. I’m not really sure what it is about or how the cultures looked like.
"7. Acorns and Pueblos"
6,5/10
Chaco Canyon. Another chapter about a culture living in difficult conditions. It’s not really about weather itself. It’s just that they lived in very arid conditions so it’s curious that they could survive in that part of USA that seems unliveable. We don’t really have written history from this culture so the author really has to bring his A game to make it work.
"8. Lords of the Water Mountains"
6/10
Was tired while listening to the chapter, but the book also lost its magic here and there is nothing deep to explore here it feels. It's just a history book jumping from culture to culture. To me it works when it's a chapter about a culture I have already looked into via books, photos and documentaries. That way I can imagine the culture and understand the chapter. Here it's yet another culture I know very little about which just makes it so much harder to follow along on. It would be smart to watch a short documentary about the culture before reading the chapter, but that applies to all chapters.
It's a fine charter for sure. I just didn't find it engaging, but there is a ton of great historical info here.
"9. The Lords of Chimor"
6/10
Chimor is another chapter that is hard for me to fully visualize.
"10. Bucking the Trades"
6,5/10
About wind on water in Polynesia and the possible long-range canoe travel in strong wind seasons which is only possible during some years. This feels a bit weird. Why are we suddenly studying travel via sailing?
I relistened to it to see what I missed. It really does seem to be a chapter about voyages. Weird. I guess it explains how weather influences where people settle.
"11. The Flying Fish Ocean"
6/10
About how bad weather causes mass starvation in India. Also a lot of points about Africa. Overall a confusing chapter that tackles too many cultures.
"12. China’s Sorrow"
6/10
How China overall looks like when looking at weather and fresh water.
"13. The Silent Elephant"
5,5/10
Largely moral preachings about modern global warming. Not that good because it’s stuff you already have heard from the endless amount of documentaries and talks about the issue. I guess he wanted to make the book relevant to our current lives. But preachings are always boring.
My final opinion on the book
I feel like the book starts out great, but just has too many small chapters and historical observations to be a clear history book with a singular focus which is a shame. It feels similar to the amazing Collapse by Diamond, but Collapse is more clear. In Collapse all single chapters are about a specific society collapsing so you always know what you are reading - some culture collapsing. Each chapter is an individual study. Here all chapters are about different stuff. It's all about water and how it gets hot or cold or disappears and then influences cultures, but it's just a ton of different ways that canals, rain, weather and food is influenced. So each chapter is its own thing and is too self-contained in the topic.
It's hard to judge the book. It's great history work for sure and very impressive. Though it's about societies not people and may feel a bit technical. But it's one of those history books that tries to be about one topic, but overall is just a
20 history lessons. Mosquito by Weingard is another book in this category. Seemingly about malaria, but overall just about many historical cultures with some small focus on malaria here and there. That audiobook I didn't get at all and forgot nearly everything about as it didn't feel like an overall message. This book at least has a bit stronger structure. You still read a ton of stuff you'll forget right away, but if you really focus you can always spot some clear overall hazy point. I think I missed some stuff and points in the book, but it's about weather changes and it's hard to really see any amazing new lesson here. It's stuff you know, but don't understand the details off.
It's a very impressive book with a ton of details about how things work. You'd for sure enjoy it, but while it's a big lesson it does become a bit more dull and less intellectual as you understand that it doesn't have some amazing deep insight.
March 25, 2015
Recent decades have been a golden age for archaeologists. New technology has provided tools for better understanding the past. Researchers can now identify the climate trends of past centuries by analyzing the layers in tropical coral, tree rings, glacial ice packs, and lakeshore and seabed sediments.
Climate has played a primary role in influencing the course of human history. It could enable the rise of mighty empires, and later reduce them to dusty ruins. Big changes can happen suddenly, without warning, and have devastating effects. Mighty scientists may huff and puff and stamp their feet, but climate will do whatever it wishes.
In 2000, archaeologist Brian Fagan published The Little Ice Age. This book examined an era of cooler weather spanning from 1300 to 1850, and its effects on northern Europe. In those days, most folks lived from harvest to harvest, with few safety nets. In 1315, it barely stopped raining, and the heavy rains continued through 1316 and 1317, followed by horrendous weather in 1318. At least 1.5 million folks checked out. The famine of 1344-1345 was so extreme that even the super rich starved.
Preceding the Little Ice Age was the Medieval Warm Period, which spanned from 800 to 1300. Fagan described this era in The Great Warming, published in 2008. Far less was known about this time, because fewer written records have survived. But new climate data has been filling in a number of missing pieces, revealing many forgotten events, important stuff.
When it was in the mood for mischief, the Little Ice Age was a harsh bully. Fagan had expected the warm period to be the opposite, and in some regions, it was, sort of. In Europe, there were fewer late frosts, and the growing season was three weeks longer. There were vineyards in England and southern Norway. Surplus wealth enabled the construction of grand cathedrals.
Whilst the weather was rather pleasant, the era suffered from a devastating spasm of innovation. The diabolically powerful moldboard plow, which was able to turn heavy soils, replaced the primitive scratch plow. A new harness allowed horses to replace pokey oxen as beasts of burden. The new three-field fallowing system enabled two-thirds of the fields to be growing crops every year, instead of just half, with the old two-field system.
By using these new technologies, vast regions of highly fertile heavy soils could now be converted into highly productive cropland. The only obstacle was the vast ancient forests, and their untamed wildlife. Loggers grabbed their axes and exterminated more than half of Europe’s forests between 1100 and 1350.
Expanded cropland area, combined with a balmy climate, produced much more food, and this always resulted in a mushrooming mob. Between 1000 and 1347, the population of Europe grew from 35 to 80 million, despite short life expectancies. It got so crowded that folks in 1300 were worse off than their grandparents in 1200.
In other regions, the warm period brought unpleasant weather. The Mayans of the Yucatan lowlands experienced extended droughts and abundant misery. “Hot, humid, and generally poorly drained, the Maya lowlands were a fragile, water-stressed environment even in the best of times,” Fagan observed. “It’s hard to imagine a less likely place for a great civilization.”
The Mayan city of Tikal may have had 300,000 residents. It was entirely dependent on rainfall for water. Their ecosystem did not have dependable sources of water, like rivers or underground aquifers. They developed amazing systems for storing rainwater, and these worked really well, usually, but not during multi-year droughts. The drought of 910 lasted six years, and generated social unrest, which led to the collapse of many Mayan cities.
At the same time, severe droughts in western North America followed similar patterns. Irrigation systems at Chaco Canyon enabled more than 2,000 folks to survive in an arid region for several centuries. This worked well in wetter years. After 1100, droughts intensified, and within 50 years the city was abandoned.
California was home to hunters and foragers. Acorns were half of the diet for many tribes. Oaks could produce as much food per acre as medieval European farms, and foragers could acquire a year’s supply in several weeks. Fewer acorns fell in drought years, and extended droughts killed the oak trees.
Stumps at Mono Lake indicate that a severe drought began in 1250 and lasted for over a hundred years. Fagan noted “None of today’s droughts, which last as long as four years, approach the intensity and duration of the Medieval Warm Period droughts.” He called them megadroughts. They baked away the surface waters and soil moisture.
The Yellow River (Huang He) has an appropriate nickname, China’s Sorrow, because it is one of the world’s most trouble-prone rivers. Fagan said “the Huang He basin [has] been a crucible for human misery for more than seven thousand years.” About 45 percent of the Chinese population lives in the basin. From year to year, precipitation can vary by 30 percent. A dry June is a bad omen.
To reduce the risk of famines, the Chinese built complex irrigation systems, which the Yellow River enjoyed burying with silt. The yellow loess soil of the region was highly fertile, easy to till, and 200 feet deep (61 m) on average. It was also light and easily erodible. Once upon a time, forests held the soil in place, but deforestation* had catastrophic consequences. The river carried an enormous load of yellow silt downstream, and this created perfect conditions for disastrous floods, which have killed many millions over the centuries.
This region has long been a spooky place to live, but the warm period was worse, “a time of violent climatic swings nurtured thousands of miles away that brought either lengthy dry cycles or torrential rainfall that inundated thousands of acres of the Huang He basin.” (An extreme nineteenth century drought is described in Late Victorian Holocausts.)
Today, the global climate is hotter than the Medieval Warm Period. The warming trend has been steadily building since 1860. Glaciers are melting and folks are getting increasingly nervous about rising sea levels. While this is indeed a bummer, Fagan warns that extended drought is a far greater threat. Extended drought withers agriculture, toasts pastures, and dries up lakes and rivers. Seven-point-something billion people will be extremely vulnerable when we move beyond Peak Food, and into the climate surprises of the coming decades.
Climate has played a primary role in influencing the course of human history. It could enable the rise of mighty empires, and later reduce them to dusty ruins. Big changes can happen suddenly, without warning, and have devastating effects. Mighty scientists may huff and puff and stamp their feet, but climate will do whatever it wishes.
In 2000, archaeologist Brian Fagan published The Little Ice Age. This book examined an era of cooler weather spanning from 1300 to 1850, and its effects on northern Europe. In those days, most folks lived from harvest to harvest, with few safety nets. In 1315, it barely stopped raining, and the heavy rains continued through 1316 and 1317, followed by horrendous weather in 1318. At least 1.5 million folks checked out. The famine of 1344-1345 was so extreme that even the super rich starved.
Preceding the Little Ice Age was the Medieval Warm Period, which spanned from 800 to 1300. Fagan described this era in The Great Warming, published in 2008. Far less was known about this time, because fewer written records have survived. But new climate data has been filling in a number of missing pieces, revealing many forgotten events, important stuff.
When it was in the mood for mischief, the Little Ice Age was a harsh bully. Fagan had expected the warm period to be the opposite, and in some regions, it was, sort of. In Europe, there were fewer late frosts, and the growing season was three weeks longer. There were vineyards in England and southern Norway. Surplus wealth enabled the construction of grand cathedrals.
Whilst the weather was rather pleasant, the era suffered from a devastating spasm of innovation. The diabolically powerful moldboard plow, which was able to turn heavy soils, replaced the primitive scratch plow. A new harness allowed horses to replace pokey oxen as beasts of burden. The new three-field fallowing system enabled two-thirds of the fields to be growing crops every year, instead of just half, with the old two-field system.
By using these new technologies, vast regions of highly fertile heavy soils could now be converted into highly productive cropland. The only obstacle was the vast ancient forests, and their untamed wildlife. Loggers grabbed their axes and exterminated more than half of Europe’s forests between 1100 and 1350.
Expanded cropland area, combined with a balmy climate, produced much more food, and this always resulted in a mushrooming mob. Between 1000 and 1347, the population of Europe grew from 35 to 80 million, despite short life expectancies. It got so crowded that folks in 1300 were worse off than their grandparents in 1200.
In other regions, the warm period brought unpleasant weather. The Mayans of the Yucatan lowlands experienced extended droughts and abundant misery. “Hot, humid, and generally poorly drained, the Maya lowlands were a fragile, water-stressed environment even in the best of times,” Fagan observed. “It’s hard to imagine a less likely place for a great civilization.”
The Mayan city of Tikal may have had 300,000 residents. It was entirely dependent on rainfall for water. Their ecosystem did not have dependable sources of water, like rivers or underground aquifers. They developed amazing systems for storing rainwater, and these worked really well, usually, but not during multi-year droughts. The drought of 910 lasted six years, and generated social unrest, which led to the collapse of many Mayan cities.
At the same time, severe droughts in western North America followed similar patterns. Irrigation systems at Chaco Canyon enabled more than 2,000 folks to survive in an arid region for several centuries. This worked well in wetter years. After 1100, droughts intensified, and within 50 years the city was abandoned.
California was home to hunters and foragers. Acorns were half of the diet for many tribes. Oaks could produce as much food per acre as medieval European farms, and foragers could acquire a year’s supply in several weeks. Fewer acorns fell in drought years, and extended droughts killed the oak trees.
Stumps at Mono Lake indicate that a severe drought began in 1250 and lasted for over a hundred years. Fagan noted “None of today’s droughts, which last as long as four years, approach the intensity and duration of the Medieval Warm Period droughts.” He called them megadroughts. They baked away the surface waters and soil moisture.
The Yellow River (Huang He) has an appropriate nickname, China’s Sorrow, because it is one of the world’s most trouble-prone rivers. Fagan said “the Huang He basin [has] been a crucible for human misery for more than seven thousand years.” About 45 percent of the Chinese population lives in the basin. From year to year, precipitation can vary by 30 percent. A dry June is a bad omen.
To reduce the risk of famines, the Chinese built complex irrigation systems, which the Yellow River enjoyed burying with silt. The yellow loess soil of the region was highly fertile, easy to till, and 200 feet deep (61 m) on average. It was also light and easily erodible. Once upon a time, forests held the soil in place, but deforestation* had catastrophic consequences. The river carried an enormous load of yellow silt downstream, and this created perfect conditions for disastrous floods, which have killed many millions over the centuries.
This region has long been a spooky place to live, but the warm period was worse, “a time of violent climatic swings nurtured thousands of miles away that brought either lengthy dry cycles or torrential rainfall that inundated thousands of acres of the Huang He basin.” (An extreme nineteenth century drought is described in Late Victorian Holocausts.)
Today, the global climate is hotter than the Medieval Warm Period. The warming trend has been steadily building since 1860. Glaciers are melting and folks are getting increasingly nervous about rising sea levels. While this is indeed a bummer, Fagan warns that extended drought is a far greater threat. Extended drought withers agriculture, toasts pastures, and dries up lakes and rivers. Seven-point-something billion people will be extremely vulnerable when we move beyond Peak Food, and into the climate surprises of the coming decades.
June 11, 2022
Subtitled 'Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilisations' this is Fagan's analysis of the Medieval Warm Period, the time from the tenth to the fifteenth century when the earth experienced a rise in global temperature and how this climatic change affected societies across the world. These centuries of amiable weather allowed European countries in particular to flourish and were followed by six centuries of much more unsettled weather (see also Fagan's book 'The Little Ice Age'.)
The Great Warming shows how a climate that brought better harvests to many European countries, at the same time brought prolonged and devastating drought to many other parts of the world. The increased temperatures lead to cultural developments such as new strategies for storing water and the development of more drought tolerant cereals, but that wasn't enough to prevent the devastation in Africa and other parts of the world.
Fagan looks in some detail at various parts of the world and how they were affected by the Medieval Warm Period, from details such as fine grape harvests in England, and how great storms in the Netherlands lead to the formation of the Zuider Zee bay to the effect that climatic changes had on the Mongol empire under Genghis Khan.
Alongside the social history of the period, Fagan explains some of the scientific methods used to study historic and pre-historic climates.
The Great Warming is well worth reading for the interesting way it pulls together histories from various countries together to consider the global impact of climate change. The reader is then encouraged to consider our current climatic changes in the light of what has gone before.
The Great Warming shows how a climate that brought better harvests to many European countries, at the same time brought prolonged and devastating drought to many other parts of the world. The increased temperatures lead to cultural developments such as new strategies for storing water and the development of more drought tolerant cereals, but that wasn't enough to prevent the devastation in Africa and other parts of the world.
Fagan looks in some detail at various parts of the world and how they were affected by the Medieval Warm Period, from details such as fine grape harvests in England, and how great storms in the Netherlands lead to the formation of the Zuider Zee bay to the effect that climatic changes had on the Mongol empire under Genghis Khan.
Alongside the social history of the period, Fagan explains some of the scientific methods used to study historic and pre-historic climates.
The Great Warming is well worth reading for the interesting way it pulls together histories from various countries together to consider the global impact of climate change. The reader is then encouraged to consider our current climatic changes in the light of what has gone before.
September 24, 2022
Книжка не написана аж так, щоб супер-пупер цікавою мовою. Але сама собою вельми цікава. Коли я їхав у Антарктиду, то ще вагався, чи антропогенними є глобальні зміни клімату. Але після того, як заглибився у тему, прочитав безліч наукових статей, то дійшов висновку, що а) зміни є (про це вже навіть бабусі говорять) і б) вони антропогенні. На жаль, з одніє статті чи книги зробити остаточний висновок важко. Тому ця книга є важливою, якщо є бажання розібратися у темі. Автор наводить різні наукові приклади і факти, про які я вперше довідався саме з цієї книги: керни льоду, відклади у коралах, кільця дерев, відкладення з дна водойм і багато інших речей, по яких людство навчилося читати погоду у минулому, а відтак складати картину клімату сотні і навіть тисячі років тому. Нетиповий стрибок рівня вуглекислого газу, що є одним із основних парникових газів і причин глобальних змін клімату, відбувся із початком промислової революції.
До цієї теми можна додати, що французький гляціолог Клод Лоріус дослідив керни за 800 тисяч років і встановив, що такого рівня викиду парникових газів, як з 1800-тих, на планеті не було.
Але якщо зміни клімату - це вже не новинка, то у плані цікавості і відкриття чогось нового є інший мотив книги - піднесення та гибель цивілізацій. Клімат, імовірно, не можна вважати чимось єдиним, що стоїть за кулісами розквіту чи краху цілих цивілізацій. Деякі тези треба радше сприймати за теорії. Але у цілому ідея впливу клімату на розвиток людства і навіть на характери людей певних регіонів планети теж не нова. Але у цій книзі це подано системно і наочно. Тобто так, що можна прийняти "у цілому" як досить переконливе.
До цієї теми можна додати, що французький гляціолог Клод Лоріус дослідив керни за 800 тисяч років і встановив, що такого рівня викиду парникових газів, як з 1800-тих, на планеті не було.
Але якщо зміни клімату - це вже не новинка, то у плані цікавості і відкриття чогось нового є інший мотив книги - піднесення та гибель цивілізацій. Клімат, імовірно, не можна вважати чимось єдиним, що стоїть за кулісами розквіту чи краху цілих цивілізацій. Деякі тези треба радше сприймати за теорії. Але у цілому ідея впливу клімату на розвиток людства і навіть на характери людей певних регіонів планети теж не нова. Але у цій книзі це подано системно і наочно. Тобто так, що можна прийняти "у цілому" як досить переконливе.
November 20, 2008
I am an anal reader with a fixation on finishing any book I start, no matter how painful it may be.
I made it less than halfway through Brain Fagan's "The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations."
The book focuses on the period in the late Middle Ages known, in Europe, as the Great Warming due to increasing temperatures which allowed higher crop yields and contributed to the advent of the Renaissance. Fagan argues that this period of dramatic climatic shift was not a regional one, but rather worldwide.
This interesting thesis was poorly-served by an approach that attempted to be everything to everyone. Chapters started with a fictional narrative to set the scene, which was cute for a few chapters but became irritating and repetitive quite quickly. He then launches into spats of detailed analysis of geological evidence pointing to the temperature changes taking place, followed by an exploration of archaeological and anthropological evidence that shed light upon the effect that such climatic change had upon the indigenous populations. Combined with the vast geographical range being covered, this resulted in a book that felt stretched too thin.
I made it less than halfway through Brain Fagan's "The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations."
The book focuses on the period in the late Middle Ages known, in Europe, as the Great Warming due to increasing temperatures which allowed higher crop yields and contributed to the advent of the Renaissance. Fagan argues that this period of dramatic climatic shift was not a regional one, but rather worldwide.
This interesting thesis was poorly-served by an approach that attempted to be everything to everyone. Chapters started with a fictional narrative to set the scene, which was cute for a few chapters but became irritating and repetitive quite quickly. He then launches into spats of detailed analysis of geological evidence pointing to the temperature changes taking place, followed by an exploration of archaeological and anthropological evidence that shed light upon the effect that such climatic change had upon the indigenous populations. Combined with the vast geographical range being covered, this resulted in a book that felt stretched too thin.
September 20, 2012
The first part of this book, based on the effects in Europe of 4-5 warmer centuries, is the most interesting. The other chapters -- addressing the effects of weather change on people in other areas of the world consist of a lot of "might have effected," "would probably have changed," and similar conjectural language. Of course, it is hard to figure out what actually happened in these places where there are few written records. The geological evidence is interesting, but the books starts to get repetitive in the later chapters (drought in the Southwest of North America, Asia, Peru, Central America, etc.).
January 14, 2017
Frankly, this book falls into some of the traps of history books. Fagan writes about these people like they are his next door neighbor. There are sections where he glorifies how these people felt and acted. It just reads so false and unnecessary. I want to know about the fun facts of historical climate change. Not Fagan's opinion about how people felt. Facts only please!
Beyond that, the facts he gives are generally boring information unless you really want to know about how acorns played heavily in the Pueblos. Which could in fact be interesting if presented correctly. But Fagan just doesn't know how to make these facts compelling.
Beyond that, the facts he gives are generally boring information unless you really want to know about how acorns played heavily in the Pueblos. Which could in fact be interesting if presented correctly. But Fagan just doesn't know how to make these facts compelling.
August 19, 2012
It can be difficult to read a narrative with a critical eye and without knowledge of the history of a subject - like climate change and agriculture.
This is one of the first pieces of literature specifically on climate change (other than required readings from college classes) I've had to read. And recently, I've taken a strong interest earth science and related subjects. So I'm very excited to have it as a leisurely read!
This is one of the first pieces of literature specifically on climate change (other than required readings from college classes) I've had to read. And recently, I've taken a strong interest earth science and related subjects. So I'm very excited to have it as a leisurely read!
June 6, 2016
The book focuses on the medieval warming period (roughly 800-1300). It gives you loads of historical background that can be quite fascinating, but unfortunately that's it for me.
I found the writing very irritating and repetitive. I was rushing to get through it because most of the text seemed unnecessary. I don't think I've learned anything...
I found the writing very irritating and repetitive. I was rushing to get through it because most of the text seemed unnecessary. I don't think I've learned anything...
June 13, 2020
The author can’t seem to decide what type of book he’s writing. He attempts to cover quite technical stuff about climate and how we know about it as well as simple descriptions of life in the past in the form of mini reconstructions. All while covering over 400 years and the whole world. Makes for a confused, repetitive book where the author’s argument is often unclear.
December 2, 2010
Fagan, Brian. “The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations” (Bloomsbury Press, New York 2008)
Fagan reveals a variety of effects on the global Medieval Warm Period from the abandonment of Pueblo Bonito and Angkor Wat structures due to drought to the increased farm yields in Europe due to predictable moderate weather patterns. Fagan navigates through a web of archeology and the latest climate based research to paint a picture of a time period where the entire world was effected by slightly higher global temperatures lasting for a few hundred years roughly from 950-1250 AD. The intended audience for this book is both the historical and scientific communities as well as anyone interested in global warming. Seeing the returns from the current climate trends being warmer than usual it seems a look back at past warming events like the Medieval Warm Period will help in preparing for the effects of current warming temperatures. Fagan’s concluding paragraph addresses the current situation with a stern warning of prolonged drought.
Fagan takes the reader on a trip around the world revealing the effects of climate change on human societies during the warm period in each chapter. Instead of moving geographically it might be better to review societies who benefited from the warming and those who were left wanting. Europe definitely benefited from the warm period. The warmer conditions provided calm “mirrorlike” seas that increased fishing production in Europe. Norse sailors established colonies in Greenland and traded iron for furs and ivory to Inuit hunters. The predictable weather allowed for budget surpluses, healthy populations, and abundant crops that helped finance some of the great cathedrals to be built in Western Europe. Also Europe got a break when Batu Khan withdrew from a Mongol planned Western European invasion because of improved pasturage in the Steppes that increased trade and provided vast conquered territory for grazing (p. 65). Though Fagan noted the increased temperatures and drier conditions might have been one of the major factors in the expansion of the Mongol Empire in the first place. Drought and shrinking pasturage usually coincided with unrest and military aggression among Steppe societies.
The settling of some of the most remote islands on Earth was brought about by changing weather patterns caused by warmer conditions. During major El Nino events easterly trade winds died down and westerlies become more common in January and February during the Medieval Warm Period. Fagan notes recent studies of the Pacific trade winds have shown a weakening of the Walker circulation in response to warming. Warmer sea surface temperatures during El Nino events slows down and could reverse the circulation from high pressure systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean to low pressure systems in Indonesia. The seesaw opposite of El Nino, the La Nina weather pattern, seems to have occurred during this time period as well bringing relatively cool and dry conditions to much of the Pacific (p. 181). The dry La Nina conditions possibly brought on by the weakening of the Walker circulation could have been the protagonist that fueled Polynesian sailors to find and settle new islands in the far reaches of the Pacific.
Although there were some victors in the “Great Warming” the idea of Fagan’s book and what he hit on with his warning for tomorrow is that increased global temperatures coincides with drought in many places on Earth. Those that suffered most during the Medieval Warm Period included the Native Americans in California who saw a failure in acorn harvests. A similar story occurred with Native Americans in the Great Basin where the bark beetle ravaged Piñón forests and caused harvests of their staple food the pine-nut to plummet. The warm period also coincided with the collapse of the Mayan Civilization in Central America. A multiyear drought that occurred in the Southern Yucatan overtaxed the water systems controlled by the nobility and citizens scattered and abandoned great cities.
There were some civilizations that rode out the storm of the great warming such as the Chimor who had adapted their irrigation strategies and diversified their food supply to prolonged droughts before the Medieval Warm Period. The Chimor lived next to one of the richest coastal fisheries in the world off the coast of Peru which allowed abundant anchovy harvests even when irrigation systems were low on water. The account of the Chimor civilization and its comparison to the Maya is one of the greatest strengths of Fagan’s book. It shows detailed research on Fagan’s part to locate a civilization that was well prepared for changing climate conditions and offer hope if future conditions get worse than they are presently.
Another strength of Fagan’s book is that he took the time explain the proxy evidence he used in the research for the book. This included measuring the titanium content in the Cariaco core sediment deposits from rivers flowing into the ocean in South America (p.140). High concentration of titanium reveals a greater amount of rainfall in the local watershed. There was less titanium found during the Medieval Warm Period timeframe. The unusually accurate annual growth rings in Palmyra coral samples reveal data in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef of cool and dry La Nina conditions during the Medieval Warm Period. Although fragile, coral can rival modern instrument records with its accuracy of oxygen isotope O-18 and O-16 indicating cool and warm water respectively (p. 179). Fagan noted bone fragments found in ancient rubbish heaps helped indicate high consumption rates of salt-water fish found even as far inland as Vienna, Austria during the Medieval Warm Period (p. 40). Proxy evidence of tree-ring data from old Siberian pines in Mongolia place Genghis Khan’s conquests within an extended warm period with frequent droughts. The site of analysis for the pines was chosen at Sol Dov for the ecological conditions were such that tree growth was influenced by temperature changes from one year to the next (p. 61).
Criticisms’ of Fagan’s book include an ambiguous reference that came in Fagan’s preface when he claimed “no one in their right mind would argue that climate ‘caused’ all the economic, political, and social changes described in these pages [p. xvi]. That kind of environmental determinism, the notion that climate caused the major developments of history, was discredited more than three quarters of a century ago [p. xii].” Having published this book in 2008 and looking back 75 years (three quarters of a century ago) would put the timeframe of Fagan’s reference to 1933 or the start of WWII. Most climates referred to in reference to the causes of WWII are human constructions such as political climates and economic climates but not actual weather climates. This was a main argument in Fagan’s book that there have been many social upheavals caused in part by a changed climate such as military upheaval with the Mongolian Empire. It would have been nice if he expanded on climate effects on major wars in history instead of just noted that not all wars have roots in climate conditions but perhaps there’s time for that issue in another book.
The greatest strength of Fagan’s book is his analysis of the effect of the Medieval Warm Period on prolonged droughts in many parts of the world. Fagan emphasized his argument with the word “prolonged” writing “the dry spells of a thousand years ago spanned not years, but generations (p. 229).” Environmental proxy evidence that has been researched around the world was painted a much broader picture of the effects of the Medieval Warm Period rather than just relying on European based sources such as artists’ renditions of landscapes at the time and wine production in England. I would recommend this book to the reader for many of the conclusions Fagan drew from the Medieval Warm Period have significant implications on how to prepare for present rising temperatures. Fagan’s cautious warning against the threat of prolonged drought should be taken seriously especially in geographical areas where it occurred in the past during the Medieval Warm Period.
Fagan reveals a variety of effects on the global Medieval Warm Period from the abandonment of Pueblo Bonito and Angkor Wat structures due to drought to the increased farm yields in Europe due to predictable moderate weather patterns. Fagan navigates through a web of archeology and the latest climate based research to paint a picture of a time period where the entire world was effected by slightly higher global temperatures lasting for a few hundred years roughly from 950-1250 AD. The intended audience for this book is both the historical and scientific communities as well as anyone interested in global warming. Seeing the returns from the current climate trends being warmer than usual it seems a look back at past warming events like the Medieval Warm Period will help in preparing for the effects of current warming temperatures. Fagan’s concluding paragraph addresses the current situation with a stern warning of prolonged drought.
Fagan takes the reader on a trip around the world revealing the effects of climate change on human societies during the warm period in each chapter. Instead of moving geographically it might be better to review societies who benefited from the warming and those who were left wanting. Europe definitely benefited from the warm period. The warmer conditions provided calm “mirrorlike” seas that increased fishing production in Europe. Norse sailors established colonies in Greenland and traded iron for furs and ivory to Inuit hunters. The predictable weather allowed for budget surpluses, healthy populations, and abundant crops that helped finance some of the great cathedrals to be built in Western Europe. Also Europe got a break when Batu Khan withdrew from a Mongol planned Western European invasion because of improved pasturage in the Steppes that increased trade and provided vast conquered territory for grazing (p. 65). Though Fagan noted the increased temperatures and drier conditions might have been one of the major factors in the expansion of the Mongol Empire in the first place. Drought and shrinking pasturage usually coincided with unrest and military aggression among Steppe societies.
The settling of some of the most remote islands on Earth was brought about by changing weather patterns caused by warmer conditions. During major El Nino events easterly trade winds died down and westerlies become more common in January and February during the Medieval Warm Period. Fagan notes recent studies of the Pacific trade winds have shown a weakening of the Walker circulation in response to warming. Warmer sea surface temperatures during El Nino events slows down and could reverse the circulation from high pressure systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean to low pressure systems in Indonesia. The seesaw opposite of El Nino, the La Nina weather pattern, seems to have occurred during this time period as well bringing relatively cool and dry conditions to much of the Pacific (p. 181). The dry La Nina conditions possibly brought on by the weakening of the Walker circulation could have been the protagonist that fueled Polynesian sailors to find and settle new islands in the far reaches of the Pacific.
Although there were some victors in the “Great Warming” the idea of Fagan’s book and what he hit on with his warning for tomorrow is that increased global temperatures coincides with drought in many places on Earth. Those that suffered most during the Medieval Warm Period included the Native Americans in California who saw a failure in acorn harvests. A similar story occurred with Native Americans in the Great Basin where the bark beetle ravaged Piñón forests and caused harvests of their staple food the pine-nut to plummet. The warm period also coincided with the collapse of the Mayan Civilization in Central America. A multiyear drought that occurred in the Southern Yucatan overtaxed the water systems controlled by the nobility and citizens scattered and abandoned great cities.
There were some civilizations that rode out the storm of the great warming such as the Chimor who had adapted their irrigation strategies and diversified their food supply to prolonged droughts before the Medieval Warm Period. The Chimor lived next to one of the richest coastal fisheries in the world off the coast of Peru which allowed abundant anchovy harvests even when irrigation systems were low on water. The account of the Chimor civilization and its comparison to the Maya is one of the greatest strengths of Fagan’s book. It shows detailed research on Fagan’s part to locate a civilization that was well prepared for changing climate conditions and offer hope if future conditions get worse than they are presently.
Another strength of Fagan’s book is that he took the time explain the proxy evidence he used in the research for the book. This included measuring the titanium content in the Cariaco core sediment deposits from rivers flowing into the ocean in South America (p.140). High concentration of titanium reveals a greater amount of rainfall in the local watershed. There was less titanium found during the Medieval Warm Period timeframe. The unusually accurate annual growth rings in Palmyra coral samples reveal data in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef of cool and dry La Nina conditions during the Medieval Warm Period. Although fragile, coral can rival modern instrument records with its accuracy of oxygen isotope O-18 and O-16 indicating cool and warm water respectively (p. 179). Fagan noted bone fragments found in ancient rubbish heaps helped indicate high consumption rates of salt-water fish found even as far inland as Vienna, Austria during the Medieval Warm Period (p. 40). Proxy evidence of tree-ring data from old Siberian pines in Mongolia place Genghis Khan’s conquests within an extended warm period with frequent droughts. The site of analysis for the pines was chosen at Sol Dov for the ecological conditions were such that tree growth was influenced by temperature changes from one year to the next (p. 61).
Criticisms’ of Fagan’s book include an ambiguous reference that came in Fagan’s preface when he claimed “no one in their right mind would argue that climate ‘caused’ all the economic, political, and social changes described in these pages [p. xvi]. That kind of environmental determinism, the notion that climate caused the major developments of history, was discredited more than three quarters of a century ago [p. xii].” Having published this book in 2008 and looking back 75 years (three quarters of a century ago) would put the timeframe of Fagan’s reference to 1933 or the start of WWII. Most climates referred to in reference to the causes of WWII are human constructions such as political climates and economic climates but not actual weather climates. This was a main argument in Fagan’s book that there have been many social upheavals caused in part by a changed climate such as military upheaval with the Mongolian Empire. It would have been nice if he expanded on climate effects on major wars in history instead of just noted that not all wars have roots in climate conditions but perhaps there’s time for that issue in another book.
The greatest strength of Fagan’s book is his analysis of the effect of the Medieval Warm Period on prolonged droughts in many parts of the world. Fagan emphasized his argument with the word “prolonged” writing “the dry spells of a thousand years ago spanned not years, but generations (p. 229).” Environmental proxy evidence that has been researched around the world was painted a much broader picture of the effects of the Medieval Warm Period rather than just relying on European based sources such as artists’ renditions of landscapes at the time and wine production in England. I would recommend this book to the reader for many of the conclusions Fagan drew from the Medieval Warm Period have significant implications on how to prepare for present rising temperatures. Fagan’s cautious warning against the threat of prolonged drought should be taken seriously especially in geographical areas where it occurred in the past during the Medieval Warm Period.
November 5, 2022
This book was a great read for someone who had no previous knowledge about the subject: thorough yet brief, and managing to cover the events during the Great Warming in a wide variety of regions around the world. I thought Fagan struck a nice balance between scientific explanation and storytelling, and explained the science in a professional but understandable way. I liked the connections he drew between climate events and societal changes, and how ancient societies accounted for possible climate disasters (and boons!) in their planning and societal structures. I also liked that he emphasized that this era had different effects on different regions, and that some of these were positive.
In addition, the book led me to understand some parallels to our modern world.
Fagan mentioned how past climate events drove several civilizations to suffer or experience a mass outflux of people. This was sometimes prevented by authoritarian policies that centralized water and food storage. Of note was that regimes who suffered drought more consistently were better adapted because they had institutionalized knowledge, compared to regions where drought skipped generations. He also noted that climate events were not uniform across the world - Europe might be experienced perfect agricultural weather while the northeast Pacific coast experienced intense drought.
This led to some of my own thoughts, which are also influenced by The Divide, The Great Derangement, and The Rise and Fall of American Growth. (Please note these are not Fagan’s thoughts or the claims of any other authors; if you disagree with me, please do not make negative assumptions about the content of any of these books.):
Modern powerful countries use their power to stay secure (e.g. against hunger) during local climate events by not only centralizing their citizens’ resources, but also drawing upon resources from vast areas, including from outside their borders. They “export” much of the uncertainty associated with agriculture to other countries. They use economics and/or force to necessitate those countries to export agricultural goods back. Technology has also enabled them to fish around the world instead of being confined to their own shorelines. Compared to ancient people, a very small number of developed nation citizens have to think about consequences of the weather. I never notice when several weeks go by without rain, and have no sense of how high nearby rivers are flowing. It’s little wonder that many of us cannot conceptualize climate change, because we are shielded from the climate in general every day: not only by our ACs and heaters but also by our grocery stores and running water. However, I am also hopeful that our wider connections, resources, and repositories of knowledge will help us be more prepared in some ways than the ancient people.
tl;dr it is very hard to find engaging books on climate change across the centuries and its effect on civilizations, and I think this is a great starting point for anyone who’s interested!
In addition, the book led me to understand some parallels to our modern world.
Fagan mentioned how past climate events drove several civilizations to suffer or experience a mass outflux of people. This was sometimes prevented by authoritarian policies that centralized water and food storage. Of note was that regimes who suffered drought more consistently were better adapted because they had institutionalized knowledge, compared to regions where drought skipped generations. He also noted that climate events were not uniform across the world - Europe might be experienced perfect agricultural weather while the northeast Pacific coast experienced intense drought.
This led to some of my own thoughts, which are also influenced by The Divide, The Great Derangement, and The Rise and Fall of American Growth. (Please note these are not Fagan’s thoughts or the claims of any other authors; if you disagree with me, please do not make negative assumptions about the content of any of these books.):
Modern powerful countries use their power to stay secure (e.g. against hunger) during local climate events by not only centralizing their citizens’ resources, but also drawing upon resources from vast areas, including from outside their borders. They “export” much of the uncertainty associated with agriculture to other countries. They use economics and/or force to necessitate those countries to export agricultural goods back. Technology has also enabled them to fish around the world instead of being confined to their own shorelines. Compared to ancient people, a very small number of developed nation citizens have to think about consequences of the weather. I never notice when several weeks go by without rain, and have no sense of how high nearby rivers are flowing. It’s little wonder that many of us cannot conceptualize climate change, because we are shielded from the climate in general every day: not only by our ACs and heaters but also by our grocery stores and running water. However, I am also hopeful that our wider connections, resources, and repositories of knowledge will help us be more prepared in some ways than the ancient people.
tl;dr it is very hard to find engaging books on climate change across the centuries and its effect on civilizations, and I think this is a great starting point for anyone who’s interested!
January 10, 2026
這個心得是2023年寫的，殊不知後來又出了新版。本書是我第一次接觸到考慮氣候變遷的歷史，很有趣。後來就讀了更多啦。
——
他主要是講西元800-1300 中世紀時，歐洲有一個被稱為中世紀溫暖期(medieval warm period)的時期，是路歷史上上一個大暖化期，對於全球各個文明的影響。各地進入暖化的時間不同，原則上 1100-1300應該是全球都有出現溫度上升。之後就接到約持續六百年小冰河期 (little ice age)。
本書開宗明義就先講一下 disclaimers：
1. 中世紀暖化沒有像現在全球暖化的溫度上升這麼快！所以人類活動造成全球暖化議題是真的！
2. 中世紀溫暖期是以歐洲本位出發，但並不是持續不停的暖化，是旱災、洪水交替；以全球範圍來說，中間出現有旱災也有嚴寒。
這本中文書其實是2008初版，2017年第二版。
這樣的題目竟然可以出第二版，我覺得還蠻神奇的！
歐洲：
之前一直處於難以溫飽的階段，由於暖化造成較多豐收，於是人口增長，較有財力支持教會與貴族，使得中世紀宗教藝術和大型教堂得以興起。但人口增長又造成無法滿足糧食需求，於是造成濫砍濫伐，森林消失。
歐亞大陸（中西亞）：暖化造成數十年的乾旱，引發蒙古人往外劫掠農耕民族，形成了 1100-1200 的蒙古向外擴張。最後由於 1300 之後進入小冰河時期，降溫���各汗國水草豐美，於是停止外侵。
非洲：西元300-700年間，撒哈拉沙漠雨量較如今略多；但西元800年後氣候不穩定，造成沙漠擴大。
尼日河三角洲一帶，以曼德族為主。有許多關於氣候變遷的智慧，記錄在傳說中。在700年後，氣候穩定期結束，迦納興起。傳說中迦納的人類部族違反和蛇的交易，殺死了蛇，造成邪惡的能量（niyama)作亂而出現大旱，成為詛咒之地。推論發生在氣候穩定期結束之後，可能遭逢了數個氣候變遷。
似乎是在十世紀後，氣候更加乾燥穩定後，伊斯蘭世界交易黃金開始熱絡。雨量較多的時候，駱駝商隊會經過沙漠中的綠洲；雨量較少時，則會迂迴繞路，從外緣經過。一直以來都有商隊交易黃金、鹽餅。
原本迦納獨立於伊斯蘭世界之外，但在十世紀被伊斯蘭文化入侵，改信穆斯林。1324年，西非的蘇丹入貢，作為伊斯蘭文化的摩爾人與黃金之國廣為人知。
美洲
北極圈大西洋測：
由於暖化開啟航路，北歐的Scandinavian登上冰島和格陵蘭，教會派駐主教。
在十世紀時，氣候較為溫暖，冰間水道較多可以通行，圖勒人（原住民因紐特人的祖先）從西邊的白令海峽一路往東。一說是為了順著鯨魚移動跟著遷徙捕鯨；本書則提出也有可能部分原因是為了和東邊橫跨大西洋而來的Scandinavian交易鐵器。
由於冰層融化後較易航行，所以Scandinavian從格陵蘭航行到加拿大東北處的群島和來自西邊白令海峽一帶的因紐特人進行貿易。
但在小冰河時期來臨後，Scandinavian退出了格陵蘭島，1370年當地主教去世，教會也不再派駐主教。挪威不再派出船隻到格陵蘭島，海象牙的交易也荒廢了。
美洲：
現在加州、內華達、Arizona，主要是 Mojave 沙漠以及內華達山脈到科羅拉多高地的 Great Basin一帶：
在中世紀暖化期出現長達數十多年的大乾旱，所以各個部族紛紛拋下原來的聚落四散，往外求生了⋯⋯
南美洲：
數十年大乾旱！
當時的馬雅文明是多個城邦文明，君王有神力來保證用水，建造蓄水池儲水（水山）以及精細的灌溉渠道農耕來養活。但數十年的大乾旱造成馬雅文化崩潰，大城邦紛紛崩潰，十室九空。
雖然十二世紀雨量增加後還有苟延殘喘的馬雅文明，但一直未能恢復元氣。到了十五世紀西班牙人來的時候徹底殞落。
大洋洲：
好的，這出現不是暖化的問題，而是聖嬰現象（洪水）和反聖嬰現象（乾旱）
由於海洋溫度造成風向改變的關係，所以大洋洲的玻里尼西亞人乘風破浪，以前島間航行，後來跑去了復活島，成為了復活島原住民們！
但由於後來氣候改變，加上復活島的原住民們濫砍濫伐，復活島上就沒有森林了，於是他們無法像之前幾代人一樣出海跑到其他的大島。
最近還有人做實驗復原的大洋洲居民的原始船隻跳島和橫越太平洋。
對了，很久以前有個新聞就是說，玻里尼西亞人和復活島上的原住民，在十一世紀就有通婚。而玻里尼西亞人和台灣原住民，基因上也有共同的祖先。
南亞/東南亞：
印度：
由於當時兵荒馬亂，沒有什麼可靠資料不知道印度的氣候怎麼樣。不過當時有許多飢荒和大旱災。另外當時伊斯蘭文化向外擴張，入侵了印度，建立了回教帝國。
柬埔寨/吳哥
十一世紀的時候吳哥帝國到達鼎盛，但在小冰河時期來臨後，反聖嬰現象出現造成大乾旱！缺水！十五世紀左右吳哥城被廢棄了。
中國：
乾旱、飢荒、瘟疫，晚唐進入五代十國。
秘魯：好啦，在--中世紀溫暖期--大乾旱時期，秘魯的齋墨爾文化雖然和馬雅文化一樣遇到長年乾旱，但他們習慣了，所以有多樣化的食物來源，文化型態可以散落為小村落而非大城市，加上還可以捕魚之類的，所以沒有像馬雅文化被乾旱重擊。一直到十五世紀印加帝國興起才把他們給打下來變成印加的一部分。
其實呢，我個人看這本書最大的感想就是：乾旱好嚴重啊！
全球暖化最大的問題，說不定不是海平面上升，而是乾旱吧。
而且乾旱影響最大的地方，其實反而不是早就習慣乾旱的沙漠地區，說不定是一直都依靠降雨的熱帶雨林區也不一定吧！而且越是精巧、依靠工程智慧來調節用水的地方、或是依賴單一生活方式或某種特定的農作物、或動植物，系統越是脆弱。多樣化的食物取得方式（漁獵、多種農耕），靈活彈性文化更能夠撐過考驗。
以這個角度說，現在的大都市，一切都靠公共電網、水利、等等，雖然因為有經濟效益對資源運用更有效率，所以碳足跡較低，但一旦發生狀況，還真的是非常脆弱的生態系統吧？
--像是末日世界的都市裡，殭屍會特別多特別險惡之類的XD--
講到這件事就讓我想到另一本書，在講都市應該垂直發展，越大的城市越能夠分攤必要的 overhead，人類碳足跡才會變少。
所以出乎環保人士的意料之外，其實在大都市過生活比起跑去自然過生活更環保！😂🤣🤣
我其實覺得他這本書提出一個有趣的概念，但是說真的有時候也有點硬湊，應該說是為了支持他的結論所以努力去找證據的那種作法。
而且其實所有提出來的都只是可能有相關性而不能說有因果關係，但是知道一下這個概念，從這個角度來理解當時的歷史興衰，我覺得也是蠻有趣的。
書末附上兩頁最重要的圖表：一個是各地各時代的氣候變化，一個是歷史大事紀。所以這本書的概念就是把這兩張圖湊在一起就可以寫故事了。
——
他主要是講西元800-1300 中世紀時，歐洲有一個被稱為中世紀溫暖期(medieval warm period)的時期，是路歷史上上一個大暖化期，對於全球各個文明的影響。各地進入暖化的時間不同，原則上 1100-1300應該是全球都有出現溫度上升。之後就接到約持續六百年小冰河期 (little ice age)。
本書開宗明義就先講一下 disclaimers：
1. 中世紀暖化沒有像現在全球暖化的溫度上升這麼快！所以人類活動造成全球暖化議題是真的！
2. 中世紀溫暖期是以歐洲本位出發，但並不是持續不停的暖化，是旱災、洪水交替；以全球範圍來說，中間出現有旱災也有嚴寒。
這本中文書其實是2008初版，2017年第二版。
這樣的題目竟然可以出第二版，我覺得還蠻神奇的！
歐洲：
之前一直處於難以溫飽的階段，由於暖化造成較多豐收，於是人口增長，較有財力支持教會與貴族，使得中世紀宗教藝術和大型教堂得以興起。但人口增長又造成無法滿足糧食需求，於是造成濫砍濫伐，森林消失。
歐亞大陸（中西亞）：暖化造成數十年的乾旱，引發蒙古人往外劫掠農耕民族，形成了 1100-1200 的蒙古向外擴張。最後由於 1300 之後進入小冰河時期，降溫���各汗國水草豐美，於是停止外侵。
非洲：西元300-700年間，撒哈拉沙漠雨量較如今略多；但西元800年後氣候不穩定，造成沙漠擴大。
尼日河三角洲一帶，以曼德族為主。有許多關於氣候變遷的智慧，記錄在傳說中。在700年後，氣候穩定期結束，迦納興起。傳說中迦納的人類部族違反和蛇的交易，殺死了蛇，造成邪惡的能量（niyama)作亂而出現大旱，成為詛咒之地。推論發生在氣候穩定期結束之後，可能遭逢了數個氣候變遷。
似乎是在十世紀後，氣候更加乾燥穩定後，伊斯蘭世界交易黃金開始熱絡。雨量較多的時候，駱駝商隊會經過沙漠中的綠洲；雨量較少時，則會迂迴繞路，從外緣經過。一直以來都有商隊交易黃金、鹽餅。
原本迦納獨立於伊斯蘭世界之外，但在十世紀被伊斯蘭文化入侵，改信穆斯林。1324年，西非的蘇丹入貢，作為伊斯蘭文化的摩爾人與黃金之國廣為人知。
美洲
北極圈大西洋測：
由於暖化開啟航路，北歐的Scandinavian登上冰島和格陵蘭，教會派駐主教。
在十世紀時，氣候較為溫暖，冰間水道較多可以通行，圖勒人（原住民因紐特人的祖先）從西邊的白令海峽一路往東。一說是為了順著鯨魚移動跟著遷徙捕鯨；本書則提出也有可能部分原因是為了和東邊橫跨大西洋而來的Scandinavian交易鐵器。
由於冰層融化後較易航行，所以Scandinavian從格陵蘭航行到加拿大東北處的群島和來自西邊白令海峽一帶的因紐特人進行貿易。
但在小冰河時期來臨後，Scandinavian退出了格陵蘭島，1370年當地主教去世，教會也不再派駐主教。挪威不再派出船隻到格陵蘭島，海象牙的交易也荒廢了。
美洲：
現在加州、內華達、Arizona，主要是 Mojave 沙漠以及內華達山脈到科羅拉多高地的 Great Basin一帶：
在中世紀暖化期出現長達數十多年的大乾旱，所以各個部族紛紛拋下原來的聚落四散，往外求生了⋯⋯
南美洲：
數十年大乾旱！
當時的馬雅文明是多個城邦文明，君王有神力來保證用水，建造蓄水池儲水（水山）以及精細的灌溉渠道農耕來養活。但數十年的大乾旱造成馬雅文化崩潰，大城邦紛紛崩潰，十室九空。
雖然十二世紀雨量增加後還有苟延殘喘的馬雅文明，但一直未能恢復元氣。到了十五世紀西班牙人來的時候徹底殞落。
大洋洲：
好的，這出現不是暖化的問題，而是聖嬰現象（洪水）和反聖嬰現象（乾旱）
由於海洋溫度造成風向改變的關係，所以大洋洲的玻里尼西亞人乘風破浪，以前島間航行，後來跑去了復活島，成為了復活島原住民們！
但由於後來氣候改變，加上復活島的原住民們濫砍濫伐，復活島上就沒有森林了，於是他們無法像之前幾代人一樣出海跑到其他的大島。
最近還有人做實驗復原的大洋洲居民的原始船隻跳島和橫越太平洋。
對了，很久以前有個新聞就是說，玻里尼西亞人和復活島上的原住民，在十一世紀就有通婚。而玻里尼西亞人和台灣原住民，基因上也有共同的祖先。
南亞/東南亞：
印度：
由於當時兵荒馬亂，沒有什麼可靠資料不知道印度的氣候怎麼樣。不過當時有許多飢荒和大旱災。另外當時伊斯蘭文化向外擴張，入侵了印度，建立了回教帝國。
柬埔寨/吳哥
十一世紀的時候吳哥帝國到達鼎盛，但在小冰河時期來臨後，反聖嬰現象出現造成大乾旱！缺水！十五世紀左右吳哥城被廢棄了。
中國：
乾旱、飢荒、瘟疫，晚唐進入五代十國。
秘魯：好啦，在--中世紀溫暖期--大乾旱時期，秘魯的齋墨爾文化雖然和馬雅文化一樣遇到長年乾旱，但他們習慣了，所以有多樣化的食物來源，文化型態可以散落為小村落而非大城市，加上還可以捕魚之類的，所以沒有像馬雅文化被乾旱重擊。一直到十五世紀印加帝國興起才把他們給打下來變成印加的一部分。
其實呢，我個人看這本書最大的感想就是：乾旱好嚴重啊！
全球暖化最大的問題，說不定不是海平面上升，而是乾旱吧。
而且乾旱影響最大的地方，其實反而不是早就習慣乾旱的沙漠地區，說不定是一直都依靠降雨的熱帶雨林區也不一定吧！而且越是精巧、依靠工程智慧來調節用水的地方、或是依賴單一生活方式或某種特定的農作物、或動植物，系統越是脆弱。多樣化的食物取得方式（漁獵、多種農耕），靈活彈性文化更能夠撐過考驗。
以這個角度說，現在的大都市，一切都靠公共電網、水利、等等，雖然因為有經濟效益對資源運用更有效率，所以碳足跡較低，但一旦發生狀況，還真的是非常脆弱的生態系統吧？
--像是末日世界的都市裡，殭屍會特別多特別險惡之類的XD--
講到這件事就讓我想到另一本書，在講都市應該垂直發展，越大的城市越能夠分攤必要的 overhead，人類碳足跡才會變少。
所以出乎環保人士的意料之外，其實在大都市過生活比起跑去自然過生活更環保！😂🤣🤣
我其實覺得他這本書提出一個有趣的概念，但是說真的有時候也有點硬湊，應該說是為了支持他的結論所以努力去找證據的那種作法。
而且其實所有提出來的都只是可能有相關性而不能說有因果關係，但是知道一下這個概念，從這個角度來理解當時的歷史興衰，我覺得也是蠻有趣的。
書末附上兩頁最重要的圖表：一個是各地各時代的氣候變化，一個是歷史大事紀。所以這本書的概念就是把這兩張圖湊在一起就可以寫故事了。
January 31, 2023
Might be considered 'dated' as it was written about 15 years ago, but when we are talking about the Medieval Warm Period (or as Fagan later calls it the Medieval Drought Period) it should not be dated at all. The period in question concerns roughly 800-1300 A.D. but actually the discussion is mostly a prelude to the screed in the final chapter about how we're all going to die unless we listen to Brian Fagan and 'do'..something. However, there are some interesting if fairly basic discussions on various aspects of climatology including ENSO, the ITCZ, Monsoons, atmospheric oscillations (mainly the PDO), and references to various paleoclimate methods and studies. These include analyses of ice cores, pollen, tree-rings, coral, and other 'proxy' methods for reconstructing ancient climates. One of the cooler (or should I say warmer) ones that was new to me was the 'Nilometer' basically a staff gauge along the Nile River going back some 1,500 years! It could be the oldest river gauge in world! The impacts of the Medieval Warm Period (spoiler alert: it was not warm everywhere!) is described on a sort of 'global world tour' with stops in Europe, North America (SW US), Africa (Niger River basin), Central America (Yucatan), South America (mainly Peru), India, China (Huang He River), SE Asia (Khmer) and Polynesia. One of the key summarized findings was the increased frequency and intensity of drought in many parts of the world, which may be been responsible for the ending of several great empires including the Mayan, Chimor and Khmers. It is really an interesting survey in many respects but unfortunately Fagan frequently veers off the supposed subject into speculative ruminations of how people 'felt' or 'why' they did this or that. It really is a distraction. The worst example was his 'explanation' (more like fantasy) on the behavior and supposed wisdom of the Mande of central Africa in the year say, 900 A.D. Among other admirable traits he literally calls them 'expert' climatologists and even savvy forecasters of future climate trends! It was so painfully bad (see page 81) that I nearly stopped reading there. There were other similar sallies into tribal behavior and mentality that nearly ruined the book. Fagan is an anthropologist by training and should probably stick to what he knows and not pretend to be a climate expert, although he actually did not do a bad job with the climate material he did present. I did read Fagan's book on the Little Ice Age which was ok as I recall, but I would likely not read another book of his. 2-star at best.
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