Will He Go? Trump and the Looming Election Meltdown in 2020

by Lawrence Douglas

In advance of the 2020 election, legal scholar Lawrence Douglas prepares readers for a less-than-peaceful transition of power.

It doesn't require a strong imagination to get a sense of the mayhem Trump will unleash if he loses a closely contested election. It is no less disturbing to imagine Trump still insisting that he is the rightful leader of the nation. With millions of diehard supporters firmly believing that their revered president has been toppled by malignant forces of the Deep State, Trump could remain a force of constitutional chaos for years to come. WILL TRUMP GO? addresses such questions as:
How might Trump engineer his refusal to acknowledge electoral defeat? What legal and extra-legal paths could he pursue in mobilizing a challenge to the electoral outcome?

What legal, political, institutional, and popular mechanisms can be used to stop him?


What would be the fallout of a failure to remove him from office? What would be the fallout of a successful effort to unseat him?

Can our democracy snap back from Trump?
Trump himself has essentially told the nation he will never accept electoral defeat. A book that prepares us for Trump's refusal to concede, then, is hardly speculative; it is a necessary precaution against a coming crisis.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics, History, Audiobook, Presidents, American History, Current Affairs

160 pages, Hardcover

First published May 19, 2020

Reviews

[karen]

[William · Rating 5 out of 5]

READ. THIS. NOW.

The Trump campaign is discussing plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battlegrounds where Republicans hold the legislative majority. Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and choose electors directly.
Update 2020-12-28: He did exactly this.

VERY SCARY. Read this:
What if Trump and the GOP contest every county's election result?
Update: He did exactly this in key counties.

The main problem is that the GOP have been taking "lightly laundered" Russian money for over ten years now, and they are all thoroughly compromised. They are terrified of a real US Attorney General in charge of a real Department of Justice.

Update: Many GOP are still controlled by Russia and Putin, and know that their crimes will come out and be punished, if Trump is not forced back into office.

I can only hope that Barr and Trump are cellmates for the rest of their miserable lives. 😊

[Donald Powell · Rating 5 out of 5]

A good explanation and analysis of United States presidential election law. This book has timely and important historical renditions of which I fear many Americans are not even aware. While this book trades on the drama created by President Trump, its topics are much more important for the long term life of the stability in governance of our country.

[Michael · Rating 4 out of 5]

A brief book with a collection of seemingly-nightmarish scenarios about electoral chaos from November 2020 to January 2021 — each of them seemingly far-fetched, but all driven by factual analyses of the shortcomings of American election processes that came to light in 2000 (Bush v. Gore), 2018 (the fraudulent North Carolina House election), 1876 (Samuel Tilden conceding, probably without grounds, to Rutherford B. Hayes), and a host of other frailties in our bizarre, anachronistic, election processes. As the author notes, we don't have a national election system. We have 8000 state, local, and county-level election systems, each with its own peccadilloes and fragilities, and a host of fervently partisan election officials (Secretaries of State, county election commissions, etc.) who administer them. And of course, the Electoral College itself is a nightmare for democracy that skews away from the will of the people, and has already yielded two presidencies in the past two decades that were not the choice of the American people. And then, if the Senate and House get contested, equally certified state election results, the shit really hits the fan. Some of these scenarios seem unlikely, but none of them are completely implausible. And, of course, with hostile foreign actors, a conspiracy-minded national audience, the deleterious impact of social media, and a journalistic environment focused on immediate results, rather than comprehensive analysis, the period between November 3 and January 21 is likely to be be one of terrifying and unprecedented uncertainties.

[Nancy · Rating 5 out of 5]

A MUST READ, if you care about the coming election and our democracy.

Short and sweet book -- one that will definitely keep you up at night.

[Tucker · Rating 5 out of 5]

Published in May 2020. Still quite relevant as we head into October. Lots of useful information. Beautiful prose. I just wrote a 7-article series on Medium — here's the first article in the series — and I drew from information in this book.

[Jonathan Schneider · Rating 5 out of 5]

Lawrence Douglas details the possible outcomes of what may happen in the 2020 presidential election with an incumbent who will, more likely than not, refuse loss at any level. Douglas details how the U.S. Constitution does not have a remedy for a president who refuses to give up the White House after a narrow loss, or a "rigged loss", as Trump would call it. For centuries, our country has relied on political norms for the peaceful transition of power. Trump has broken all of these norms. And how the different scenarios can play out in a hotly contested election is quite alarming, to say the least. This book gives you a good idea of those scenarios.

At the same time, the book talks at lengths about how Trump has become a near-authoritarian ruler: by creating widespread and normalized distrust of the media, the only fact-checker to the president there really is. The book talks in depth about Trump's mindset, and that of his Republican allies, in eye-opening detail.

This is an important book to share with friends, as most Democrats I know do not fully grasp the magnitude of risks this President offers to our democracy in our very near future. For your friends (and for yourself) who may not have time to read the book, but who you want to educate on the subject, this article is an interview with Lawrence Douglas. It is in essence a very short-length version of the key points of the book, and it gets the horrifying and imperative points across:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politi...

[Greg · Rating 4 out of 5]

We’re so fucked.

[Ray · Rating 5 out of 5]

Lawrence Douglas' prescient book, "Will He Go?" was written several months before the 2020 presidential election. At the time of writing, President Trump was the obvious Republican Party nominee, and the front runner for the Democratic Party nomination was Joe Biden. So writing a book about the November presidential election, the nominees, the correct outcome, and the likely Trump response to a close election required a pretty good crystal ball.

What makes the book so impressive is that Douglas was able to predict the post-election turmoil which occurred. Dougles briefly allowed that there was a possibility that Trump could win re-election, or that Biden could clearly win with an overwhelming popular vote and electoral college majority. But in either of those cases, there would have been no drama, and the primary value of the book would have been it's discussion of a handful of past elections in which the Presidential election results were not immediately known and disputed.

Douglas focus is on the possibility of a Biden win with a slim margin. What would Trump do then? How would Trump respond? Others may have raised that question, but no one had ANSWERED those questions with such a detailed analysis and uncanny accuracy. Of course, we know now, after the election result are in, that the President is disputing the election results, and hope to win re-election through the courts, just as the author described in advance.

Douglas described how that would happen, and what avenues are open to a Presidential candidate hoping to overturn the election results. The discussion of how the Electoral College really works, and how each State picks its electors, whether they are bound to follow the popular vote in their State, and what role the state certification of votes play is truly informative and relevant. Douglas gives examples from past elections where several states were able to change the election results in their states. The controversial story of the 1876 election, in which Rutherford B. Hayes took the election over Samuel J. Tilden was eye-opening. And even better are the various scenarios which Douglas covered showing possible ways Trump could be declared the winner of the election. A few situations, not beyond the realm of possibility, shows why the President has his legal team fighting in so many court rooms around the Country. The Trump legal team seems to be following the outline of how to take an election from the winner of the popular vote as described by the author. It's all very interesting, and shows just how convoluted and archaic our electoral college and voting system really is.

[Eric Lee · Rating 5 out of 5]

Lawrence Douglas teaches law at Amherst College. If what he says in this short book is right, America is in for a very rocky ride in the next few months. His basic argument is that the peaceful transition of power in the US that happens when one President is elected to replace another is not guaranteed by law and not by the Constitution. Rather, it is certain norms of behaviour that have ensured over 230 years of American democracy.

He presents several scenarios in which a close election results in Trump refusing to accept defeat. The obvious options — such as going to the Supreme Court to sort things out — are easily dismissed. Douglas has a good grasp of American history and finds many examples of problems with the transition from one President to another — but in November 2020, we may face a perfect storm resulting in what he calls ‘meltdown’.

One of the many things I learned — and I learned a lot from this book — is that even if the House of Representatives, with its Democratic majority, is called upon to elect a President (and this is a real possibility in the event of a deadlock), each state delegation gets to cast just one vote. In other words, sparsely populated Wyoming will have as much say as the nearly 40 million people who live in California. The Republicans, though a minority in the House, would dominate such an election.

Douglas’ only solution to this is to leave things in the hands of voters: a massive swing to the Democrats, and a landslide victory for Biden are the country’s only real hope.

[Brian Moyer · Rating 3 out of 5]

Brings up some well researched nightmare situations that seem sickeningly plausible. I thought the book was too short. I'd have liked another large section on what could be done if someone other than Trump is inaugurated but he still refused to go.

I don't see it as a likely outcome, but it would have been fun to explore who would be responsible for removing him, what that would look like, and what precedents there are. I feel like Congress underutilizes the Capitol Police Board, for example.

Also, not the author's fault but this was written after Biden had basically locked up the nomination and after Covid had begun, but pre George Floyd. Even though it was just published, it already feels dated. I guess that's 2020 for you.

[Nils · Rating 5 out of 5]

Short little book of 2020 electoral nightmares. First half establishes that Trump has no respect for norms, decency, boundaries, the collective good, or anything other than making money and self-aggrandizement. Second half considers three specific scenarios: that by exploiting cracks in the electoral college system, no one manages to achieve a majority in the electoral college; that a massive cyberattack by a foreign adversary disrupts the election; and last, and most likely, that Trump seems to prevail with Election Day voters, but then loses as absentee/mail-in ballots are counted, and he then attempts to reject those results.

[Victor · Rating 5 out of 5]

Obligatory politics is the mind killer.

I'm no law expert, but this guy is and the claims sound plausible. Will update the review post election.

[Vanessah · Rating 5 out of 5]

For a non-American this was a very good book explaining the complexities of the US’s electoral system.

[LindaJ^ · Rating 4 out of 5]

I bought this shortly after it was published after reading an article by Douglas but could not bring myself to read it until today - January 7, 2021 - one day after a riot was incited that resulted in a mob breaking into the Capitol carrying Trump flags. Even Douglas did not predict that happening on January 6 when Congress jointly met to canvas the certifications of electors from the states. I practiced some election law before I retired, including a case where fraudulent absentee ballots were cast. There was lots of evidence to prove the fraud occurred. The big issue was whether but for the fraud would the loser have been elected. What I learned is that it is hard to hide election fraud.

From Douglas's book, I learned historical detail about elections decided by the House of Representatives, instances when two certifications arrived from one state, and the details of the federal law that set up the procedure I say taking place last night, after the riot was subdued (coup thwarted) and the US Senate and House reconvened. Talk about history in the making.

Douglas did a good job painting potential scenarios. Now we see if any of the potentialities (or worse) take place before January 20.

This is a short book. It's quite readable, even for non-lawyers. Douglas makes no bones about why he hopes there is no second term. He even offers his thoughts on things that could be done to make the system more efficient and to remove uncertainty from the presidential election and transfer of power process.

[Simon Howard · Rating 4 out of 5]

Lawrence Douglas is a Professor of Law, Jurisprudence and Social Thought who has written a series of interesting articles for The Guardian over the last couple of years about the legal challenges posed by the Trump administration. In this volume, published in the spring, he sketches out ways in which Trump may attempt to cling on to the presidency, even if the election result is not in his favour.

This is one of those books which, in a week's time, may either be irrelevant or prescient. But beyond the specifics of the campaign, Douglas gives an illustration of how the procedures laid down in the US Constitution and subsequent law are open to abuse by malicious actors. As a British reader, it's interesting to compare the flaws between the codified US system and the haphazard traditions of the UK system for elections, especially as devolution moves the UK ever closer to a federal system with all of the unresolved constitutional questions that raises.

Douglas's partial argument for the abolition of the Electoral College didn't win me over: while I appreciate the flaws and insecurities of the system as it stands, I'm not sure it is reasonable in a federal system for the President to be elected by popular vote alone, and so I'm not convinced that abolition, as opposed to reform, is the right approach.

This was a quick and absorbing read. Now I just hope that none of it comes true and it seems completely irrelevant this time next week!

[Rebecca · Rating 3 out of 5]

He goes through some scenarios that seem a bit fanciful, but his 3rd one, which relates to absentee ballots, managed to predict the exact three states that would be central to Biden's victory, and his prediction of both Trump and far-right response is accurate. It reads as if it could have been written a week ago. However, where he's been wrong so far is in the role played by Fox, which is cutting Trump loose now that's he's lost. Nonetheless, the reminder of GOP shenannigans around NC and WI gubenatorial elections is worth thinking about as we roll into two run-offs in GA that will determine who controls the Senate.

[Jenna Spinelle]

Lawrence is a wonderful writer and does a great job of breaking down complex history and Constitutional law in a way that's easy to understand. I had the chance to speak with him about the book for a podcast about democracy that I host and produce. You can listen to the interview here: https://democracyworks.simplecast.com....

[Jeanne · Rating 4 out of 5]

Don’t read unless you don’t want to sleep at all in the next 150 days

[Dawn · Rating 3 out of 5]

Well that was depressing.

[Don · Rating 5 out of 5]

A very scary book with unfortunately a very real topic. I highly recommend it to all interested in our democracy.

[Mannie Liscum · Rating 5 out of 5]

Know up front that this is a piece of ‘crystal ball gazing’ that is not certain to come to fruition - God let’s hope not anyhow! Prof. Douglas has crafted a tight little modern horror story about the state of American Presidential politics and our looming 2020 election. He draws upon the ambiguities of the Constitution and election laws, the well-established disregard (indeed willful destruction) of traditional political mores and practices by our solely brand-conscious toxicity 45th President, and the toxic partisan environment we inhabit to project ahead to Election Day 2020 and the aftermath. The basic thesis of Douglas is: if the election is close and it appears Trump has lost, Trump will refuse to concede, then Tweet and rant his way toward a Constitutional crisis. First, as of the writing of this review on 28 July 2020, it seems likely that the popular vote will be carried by Joe Biden, but all indicators are that we could again have a nail-biter in the Electoral College. Unfortunately for those who pay attention to the popular vote, that’s not the game in town. The Electoral College is the only thing that matters and this election like most over the past several Presidential elections, it is likely to all come down to a few 10s of thousands of votes in a few key swing states (FL, WI, MI, PA...). At present unless Biden or Trump wins a decisive Electoral count it seems almost certain give. The President’s now almost daily meritless Twitter rants about election fraud that he’s not going gently into the night if this is close. His argument that they crooked Dems and the Deep State have stolen the election from YOUR President and our movement’ is well established and ready to roll out. Second, as Douglas makes clear our system of Electoral College selection of the Chief Executive is fraught with potholes that to date have never ‘taken out the bottom of the car’ because political mores and traditions have prevailed. Trump abides by none of that. Our system is woefully prepared to withstand a failure of a sitting President to concede an election lose and refuse to leave office. Douglas uses just three very plausible case studies to illustrate that our system will rapidly careen into the ditch with no clear solution that looks remotely like a previous Presidential election. I had previously worried what would happen if Trump lost in a close battle, but now my worry is absolute dread. I love our democratic republic, broken as she is, and the past 3.5 years have shown how weak some of our central institutions and guardrails to protect against a slip into anti-democratic autocracy really are. But noting compares to the possible tragedy facing us in Nov if the election is close and the President responds in character. I commend Prof. Douglas for an outstanding book, but curse him slightly for forcing me to face the prospect so clearly.

[Tim Holcombe · Rating 5 out of 5]

I finished this minutes into the 2020 presidential election. Nice and salient, this book conveys the importance of getting Trump out of office, as well as some of the possible scenarios that could challenge such an outcome. I found it insightful to read about the various structural weaknesses of our weird electoral system and how it is not well-equipped to deal with a highly contested electoral result involving a president with the various traits of the incumbent. Here’s hoping for a positive electoral outcome! Come on America, I know you can do it!

[L. Max]

This brand-new work of political imagination is quite the page-turner! The author has a good, very realistic grasp of the workings of our complex, multi-sovereign electoral system and a detailed understanding of the law and, importantly, the lacunae in the law. He paints various possible scenarios believably in great detail; it requires no significant suspension of disbelief to enter into them and feel disturbed by the imminent future crises of our democracy which many of us regard as likely. This is basically a novella of suspense stories set about six months from now, except it's more than that, it's an exercise in realism--not magical realism, but dystopic realism, accompanied by riveting, legally sound analysis. The author's prescience will be tested just a short while from now. A compelling read, strongly recommended.

[Brandon · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book was published in May 2020, six months before the presidential election.

In it, author Lawrence Douglas predicts that if Donald Trump were to lose in November to Joe Biden, he would be unlikely to assist in the peaceful transition of power. Douglas lists a few ways that such an antidemocratic process could unfold, but one in particular deserves special attention for obvious reasons: he describes a scenario in which Trump leads during the early electoral count in PA, WI, and MI; then Biden pulls ahead as these states count their absentee ballots; then Trump tweets that the election is being stolen; then millions of Americans believe him, having been primed for years to distrust all non-Trump-friendly media outlets and official governmental sources; then he and his supporters begin challenging the certifications in these states.

Douglas also makes other rational but incorrect predictions. He assumes that Fox News would wholly support Trump's claims of fraud (they momentarily fact checked him but seem to have fallen back in line with his talking points post-Inauguration). He also thinks there was a good chance Trump would call on the military to enforce his delusions of grandeur (military leaders, if I recall correctly, preemptively stated that they would not get involved). He also imagines Trump would stage a type of sit-in at the White House (he exited willingly while never conceding).

Of course, much of Douglas's accurate predictions seem obvious in hindsight, but I'm not aware of any other prognosticator who described the exact vulnerabilities in the American electoral system that Trump and his allies exploited. This prescience alone earned five stars from me.

[Kathy · Rating 5 out of 5]

The author presents well-researched ideas, themes, and probabilities, giving a lot of historical perspective to it all. After reading this book, I hope the reader would begin to re-think his/her ideas on the electoral college, as the book definitely provides a lot of pluses and minuses for it as well as historical perspective. The author provides us a large amount of background on the sitting president and his emotions, ideas, and history. He also cites and explains various situations that have occurred in our history that are similar in some or many ways to the current situation. He definitely agrees that there may be a problem getting the current president to admit and accept election results, if he does not win, and suggests things he might do because of this. He does not fully discuss, however, what can be done if the president refuses to go willingly and instead sits out as many crazy ways he and his team can come up with to invalidate the election. I had hoped for more on how to get rid of someone who does this, but, as I said, I really did not find it in the book. Still, there is a lot of good material, explaining our system, how it came to be, citing many situations where it was challenged and how the challenge was handled, which could provide some help to the powers to be if this occurs after the election. Thus, I found it a book well worth my time to read, as I think any other intelligent, concerned reader will. I received this from NetGalley to read and review.

[John · Rating 2 out of 5]

Very disappointing.

I was expecting a legal and political analysis of what would happen if Trump refused to accept his likely defeat in the upcoming election. Instead, half of the book is a sensationalist rant against Trump in which the author tacitly attempts to paint the grimiest possible picture of him and his supporters, while willfully ignoring the mistakes and questionable actions of his opponents that led to millions of Americans electing Trump into office. In fact, leaders of the Democratic Party that have a special interest in Trump leaving office are quoted as unquestionable sources on how dangerous Trump is. That's just as reliable as asking a Republican leader about Biden or AOC.

The author even makes use of non-existent (and unpronounceable) words such as "Latinx," which further prove the author's bias. At times, the book reads more like a political manifesto than an analysis of US politics. Worse still, while the author acknowledges fraud is a common –but not widespread– occurrence in US elections and exposes the problems of the electoral system, he fails to adequately debunk Trump's claims of a possible fraud in the upcoming election amid the unprecedented chaos caused by Covid-19.

Still, beyond the author's blatant bias, the book features a very good overview of the US constitutional system and the vulnerabilities of the electoral system. That's why I gave it two starts instead of one. 'Will He Go?' is an interesting read, but don't expect any objectivity or fairness.

[Walt Jacob · Rating 5 out of 5]

Most Americans are all too aware, as the final 90-day countdown to 2020 Election Day has only recently begun, our beloved Country faces what historians largely agree is the greatest crisis in its entire history on several fronts, perhaps the scariest of which is the subject of this book by Amherst College Professor, Lawrence Douglas. As he writes in the introduction, "Some observers ...have expressed grave doubts about the coming election... Their concern was not that Trump might win the election, or that he might steal it through disinformation, foreign interference, and voter suppression, real as those concerns are. Their worry was different. What if the election produced an unclear result, one that could be contested? Or what if Trump lost -- but refused to acknowledge or accept his defeat?"
In this rather short, but nevertheless, extremely informative analysis, Douglas conjures three detailed scenarios or Catastrophe No, 1, 2, and 3, as he calls them, each of which is based on historical precedent. His presentation of these scenarios is written in such realistically vivid detail as to leave the reader with no doubt of plausibility. No one can read these without at very least acknowledging the extreme likelihood that the during the two and a half months following the coming election we are in for a terrible mess such that we need to think very carefully as we cast our ballot, whether in person at the ballot b0x or by absentee ballot.

[Ganapathy · Rating 5 out of 5]

The book is prescient. The author predicts exactly what is happening now and what has happened on and after election day. The red mirage on election day, the blue shift after courting mail-in ballots, the voter fraud claims, and the blockade of smooth transition from current administration. Once in a while the author embellishes on more dramatic hypotheticals and describes them with fictional tweets and statements from the leaders/people. But overall, the book was very informative of the complicated electoral process and its history as well as reveals the pitfalls of American democracy. Starting with the electoral college, he maps out several situations such as if there is a tie or two separate electors appointed by executive and legislative branches of state. He also outlines the role of judiciary in those situations.

In the beginning of this book, he neatly sums up the founding document of this country: “Our Constitution does not secure the peaceful transition of power, but rather presupposes it.” After the last four years, I can say this confidently: Democracies are just honor systems.

[Ken McDouall · Rating 4 out of 5]

Douglas delivers a timely, and somewhat terrifying, rundown of possible scenarios of electoral disruption that could come about from Trump's refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election. I read this during the days leading up to the election, and the possibilities for disaster seemed all too real. Douglas supplies plenty of information from past elections, detailing the arcane law (and lack of law) around such topics as faithless electors, what happens during a tie in the electoral college, and what we might expect if two conflicting sets of electors are certified. He particularly details three possible scenarios and examines what might be the results of each. As I write, we're in the middle of Douglas's third scenario: the Blue Shift. Spoiler alert: this scenario doesn't end well for anyone. Time will tell, but in the meantime, this slim volume will find purpose beyond the election for its explication of the processes, and need for reform of election law and election security.