The Flooded Earth: Our Future In a World Without Ice Caps

by Peter D. Ward

Sea level rise will happen no matter what we do. Even if we stopped all carbon dioxide emissions today, the seas would rise one meter by 2050 and three meters by 2100. This—not drought, species extinction, or excessive heat waves—will be the most catastrophic effect of global warming. And it won't simply redraw our coastlines—agriculture, electrical and fiber optic systems, and shipping will be changed forever. As icebound regions melt, new sources of oil, gas, minerals, and arable land will be revealed, as will fierce geopolitical battles over who owns the rights to them. In The Flooded Earth , species extinction expert Peter Ward describes in intricate detail what our world will look like in 2050, 2100, 2300, and beyond—a blueprint for a foreseeable future. Ward also explains what politicians and policymakers around the world should be doing now to head off the worst consequences of an inevitable transformation.

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, Environment, Climate Change, Geology, Planetary Science

272 pages, Hardcover

First published July 6, 2009

About the author

Peter Douglas Ward is an American paleontologist and professor of Biology and of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington, Seattle. He has written popular numerous science works for a general audience and is also an adviser to the Microbes Mind Forum.

His parents, Joseph and Ruth Ward, moved to Seattle following World War II. Ward grew up in the Seward Park neighborhood of Seattle, attending Franklin High School, and he spent time during summers at a family summer cabin on Orcas Island.

Ward's academic career has included teaching posts and professional connections with Ohio State University, the NASA Astrobiology Institute, the University of California, McMaster University (where he received his PhD in 1976), and the California Institute of Technology. He was elected as a Fellow of the California Academy of Sciences in 1984.

Ward specializes in the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, the Permian–Triassic extinction event, and mass extinctions generally. He has published books on biodiversity and the fossil record. His 1992 book On Methuselah's Trail received a Golden Trilobite Award from the Paleontological Society as the best popular science book of the year. Ward also serves as an adjunct professor of zoology and astronomy.

His book The End of Evolution was published in 1994. In it, he discussed in three parts, each about an extinction event on earth.

Ward is co-author, along with astronomer Donald Brownlee, of the best-selling Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe, published in 2000. In that work, the authors suggest that the universe is fundamentally hostile to advanced life, and that, while simple life might be abundant, the likelihood of widespread lifeforms as advanced as those on Earth is marginal. In 2001, his book Future Evolution was published, featuring illustrations by artist Alexis Rockman.

Ward and Brownlee are also co-authors of the book The Life and Death of Planet Earth: How the New Science of Astrobiology Charts the Ultimate Fate of the World, which discusses the Earth's future and eventual demise as it is ultimately destroyed by a warming and expanding Sun.

According to Ward's 2007 book, Under a Green Sky, all but one of the major mass extinction events in history have been brought on by climate change—the same global warming that occurs today. The author argues that events in the past can give valuable information about the future of our planet. Reviewer Doug Brown goes further, stating "this is how the world ends." Scientists at the Universities of York and Leeds also warn that the fossil record supports evidence of impending mass extinction.

Reviews

[Carol Storm · Rating 5 out of 5]

I picked this book up on a twenty minute break at the high school where I substitute teach. I literally could not stop turning the pages! After school I went back and read the whole thing. Amazing picture of what the future holds, and what global warming is really doing to our planet.

Read this book. I guarantee every page will send chills down your spine!

[Susan Albert · Rating 5 out of 5]

Last week, a chunk of ice four times as large as Manhattan Island broke off the tongue of the Petermann Glacier in Greenland and went swimming in the sea. For me, immersed in The Flooded Earth: Our Future In a World Without Ice Caps, it was striking evidence of what Peter D. Ward writes about: the loss of the polar icecaps and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, caused by rising global temperatures. (At the same time, Russia was experiencing its worst drought and heat wave in recorded history, further evidence of the erratic weather created by warming.) Ward, a paleontologist who has studied the rise and retreat of ancient oceans and the mass extinctions related to ocean rise, knows what he's talking about, and his book is a full treatment (at least for the general reader) of the science behind his basic argument: that the oceans are rising and will continue to rise--unless humans reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

What I found most interesting about Ward's book (and perhaps most compelling, for many readers)are the dramatic fictionalizations of the impacts of greenhouse gases that appear at the beginning of each chapter. Chapter One opens in the drowning city of Miami, in 2120, with CO2 at 800 ppm--and Miami joining New Orleans and Galveston as abandoned cities. Chapter Three beings in Tunisia in 2060 CE, with carbon dioxide at 500 ppm--and features (I suspect) Ward himself, by this time an "old geologist" who studies evidence of mass extinctions. Food for the still-rising population is scarce, transportation fuel is not available for personal use, and the study of the past is a luxury that society can no longer afford. Chapter Four is set in the Sacramento Valley in 2135, with CO2 at 800 ppm, the rivers dried up by drought, the ocean invading the valleys and salt polluting the land and aquifers, agricultural land ruined. These dramatizations illustrate the arguments made in the chapter and allow Ward to say "Listen up, learn, take action--or this is our future."

Ward acknowledges that he and all the other scientists who are bringing this hugely important issue to our attention are considered Cassndras. "I am not sure what a Cassandra is," he adds. "But I know what I indeed am: scared."

The message of this book: If you're not scared, too, you should be--scared enough to join those who are attempting to reduce CO2 to 350 ppm. Ward himself is not optimistic "about the prospect of forestalling calamity," but outlines some climate-protecting strategies and technologies that might help, if they are implemented very soon. His conclusion isn't hopeful--but realism is what we need now, not glib answers or false hopes. This book delivers that terrifying message better than anything else I've yet to read.

[Neslihan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Well written👏

[Sheila · Rating 2 out of 5]

Ward makes a good case for why we're headed for total disaster. But he should be rebuked for inventing futuristic scenarios in which First Nation Canadians kidnap tar sands oil workers to stop the environmental devastation. In other words, Indigenous peoples resort to terrorism (rather than the peaceful protests they lead in reality today.) Similarly, Ward brushes aside UN predictions that the world population is going to go down in order to scare (white) readers by comparing US and European birth rates with the birth rates of Africans. (Oddly enough, he never suggests that if Europeans aren't reproducing fast enough to maintain their population that they could admit immigrants from Africa instead of letting them drown in the Mediterranean.)

Without a grounding in anti-racist politics, which explains both environmental destruction and the poverty of the "developing world" as the result of the rise and decay of capitalism, Ward's book could end up as fuel for the ideological fires of white supremacist (but green!) survivalists. I'm really sick of books - fiction and nonfiction - that frighten US and European readers with racist dystopian images of the global north being overrun by the (dark) global south and of billions of Chinese and Indian middle class masses driving cars and enjoying air conditioning. This, some authors contend, is going to drive us over the edge.

A responsible writer would create images of people organizing across national, ethnic and religious lines and ending this insane for-profit system that drives the oil and gas industry. Visions of an earth-based, socialist society will propel people to move forward. Cheap appeals to fear will not. 50 million people died in World War 2, but still the US spends half its money on arms. Take all the money spent world wide on arms and cyber security (this alone costs 70 billion dollars a year)... and take the profit out of "growth" and we could actually put the brakes on global warming.

[Peter · Rating 5 out of 5]

Peter Ward is one of the top Paleoclimatologists in the world and anything you can read (albeit not the easiest reads is worthwhile) his insights into climate and dissecting the ancient record and analysis of Ipcc reports is definitely worth the price. In this his most recent work he covers all the important aspects of the climate debate and even some not so well known issues such as the effect storm surge will have in inundated freshwater deltas with salt water and the destruction to habitat and agriculture this could lead to. he shows in this book that he really cares and think his readers should to in this latest volume. I enjoy his books even if they are a little repetitive and convoluted at times. Highly recommend this for those looking for a more detailed aspect of some of the lesser known issues that a changing climate can have on the Earth and all its inhabitants.

[Beth Lequeuvre · Rating 3 out of 5]

Very interesting and well researched information on what will happen due to climate change. However, I have determined that this is a terrible book to read right before bed.

[Fred Dameron · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a scary book. It's scary because what Ward describes is our future if we don't do anything to lower our carbon foot print. Ward is a realist. He does not see the political will to act on carbon lowering tech and therefore our oceans will rise. The worst part is that once they have risen the ocean currents will most likely stop. My great grand children may have to deal with a world that has not only lost a large part of it's arable land but also with a hypoxic ocean. An ocean that has more hydrogen sulfide gas in it than oxygen is an algae plume ocean. It's an ocean than can not support fish as we know it but does support deadly red tide algae. The good news is that the planets population by then will be down to just a few million souls and their life will be very hard.

Ward does make the point that we have time right now and even gives several scenarios where we wake up and cut carbon emissions. But his last scenario is a dark world of the future where our descendants struggle and the world is submerged. Maybe it's what our species deserves for being such poor stewards of the planet? Or we can become better stewards and keep CO2 levels from climbing over 470ppm. AT the time of his writing this book we sat at 380ppm. Today we sit at 400ppm just seven years later. The affects Ward describes as happening in 2050 are starting to happen now. The global temperature is increasing faster than ICC 4 expected and ICC 5's, The Paris Accords, estimates are lowballed at best and maybe flat lies at worst. Heating is happening faster today than seven years ago as more carbon is pumped into the atmosphere. Greenland is melting faster than seven years ago estimates. Antarctica ice sheets are collapsing faster than estimated seven years ago and the ocean can not accept all this fresh water with out affecting the conveyor currents that keep the deep oxygenated. All this is spelled out in "Flooded Earth" and the affects will happen sooner than expected. My grand daughter and grandson WILL have to deal with these affects and so will yours. Think about it.

[Howard Gibbins · Rating 5 out of 5]

I'm relatively sure that most rational people by now realize the climate change is something we will have to contend with in the future. There will of course be those hold out who refuse to acknowledge this, or chalk it up to a distrust in science etc. But hopefully these people make up a very small minority.

This book takes the reader through a number of scenarios that deal with the possible consequences of inevitable global warming. Each chapter begins with a fictional depiction (at least I sure hope so) of what life could be like in the future if nothing is done.

As the title suggests one of the major outcomes of the warming will be the rising of the mean sea level. Whether it rises just a metre or so, or up to the 200+ metres that are possible humanity is essentially in deep trouble. However most people seem unlikely aware of what this could actually mean to people's everyday lives - in many cases the term disaster is a gross understatement as it will change the way people live, work, how they commute, how energy is generated, and many more factors.

Highly recommended, especially for those who don't believe climate change is real.

[Ryan · Rating 2 out of 5]

Decided to check out a more recent (though it is still over a decade old) book by the author, after having read his wonderful classic on megafauna extinctions. While it was not entirely a disaster, Ward was clearly out of his comfort zone and depth here, writing about planetary science and socio-economic repercussions of climate change. Even having done a fair bit of research, as evidenced by the extensive reference section at the end, he just could not put together a coherent enough book. Chapters introduce major topics one by one, like carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect, melting of ice sheets, food production, mass extinctions and potential solutions. However even after much discussion one does not get a clear picture, instead the uncertainty in the science makes predicting the extent and rapidity of sea level rise still very much a wild guess. Frustratingly, farenheit is used instead of celsius and the metric system, which is the global benchmark, even if Ward intended for a largely American audience for his book. Also not sure why he went into a long section on the history of irrigation and river system modification in California.

For a topic like this, ten years is a long time and since the book was written, huge developments like the proliferation of cheap solar panels, electrification of vehicles and on-demand transportation, and of course the supply of unconventional oil in the form of tar sands and shale oil to name a few, have had major impact on the outlook, even as more uninspiring and ineffectual COP meetings have taken place. While we continue on unabated with carbon emissions.

[Heather Payden · Rating 5 out of 5]

Scared the hell out of me

The author does provide hope for humanity. We need to change.today. At least my household can be changed, for better or worse.

[Yusuf Paçacı]

Gelecek hakkında bir fikrinizi olsun.

[Erik M · Rating 3 out of 5]

Squarely between 3 & 4 stars.

Ward is a gifted writer and scientist, but here, I felt like he was trying to stretch a strong premise too far. That global warming and human-caused climate change is a topic of valid discussion and concern is of no argument. His five into how we got here and, as of seven years ago, how we might dig out, is engaging...but repetitive. It's a lean book as is, but judicious editing might trim 20-30 pages, a few from each chapter that recapped/regurgitated earlier material.

Editing aside, the content and core message are both as timely now as in 2009, perhaps moreso.

I'd love for him to do a ten years later edition in 2019, see how the wheel's turned.

[Abigail · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is the first book I've read on the effects of climate change, although I've read many articles in various periodicals and newspapers on the subject. I learned a great deal from Dr. Ward's book which dealt primarily with the effects of the rising level of the oceans and the effects of their increasing acidification. I found the research done on previous periods of warming presented in the book explained much that is just headline material in shorter articles. For example, anyone who has read anything on this subject has probably heard about the cessation of the movement of the Gulf Stream. Dr. Ward explains why this could happen, completely backed up with historical and scientific evidence. He also stresses the loss of prime agricultural land from the incursion of salt water into the soils near the coasts of various countries, and into the entire Central Valley of California through their irrigation system. I did appreciate that he addressed the numerous climate-change related problems caused by ever-increasing overpopulation. I don't see that enough in the popular press--quite the reverse. There is currently more handwringing about falling birth rates in some countries than exploding numbers of humans worldwide. One issue I would like to have seen the author at least mention with respect to the potential catastrophes he describes is the conflicts that will inevitably arise due to shortages of water, food, and habitable land. He postulates that the human race could be rendered extinct within the next few centuries if nothing is done about the increasing level of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. I think that we probably will have killed almost everyone off before that time when the inevitable conflicts escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. I recommend this book as a good place to start on this issue as it is a gripping read while being thoroughly researched. This is a topic which all humans avoid at their peril and the peril of their children and grandchildren.

[Steve · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book takes a potentially interesting angle on climate change - sea level rise - but doesn't take it far enough, to my regret. The best climate-change book I've read, Six Degrees, took established research and painted consistent scenarios for what would happen in a world warmed by 1degree C, by 2degrees C, and so on until the frankly terrifying 6 degrees of the title. It took the science and made it into a story, which is something I as a human being can relate to. There are moments when Ward does that and describes the consequences of sea-level rise to great effect, notably his treatment of California's Central Valley and what sea level rise will do to that agricultural wonderland, or Holland's sea defenses and their fate But most of the book is instead an - approachable and readable - discussion of the science of climate change with a slight emphasis on sea level rise, and the occasional story interlude. Which makes it a good book but not that different from so many others. (A few days later and I remember the stories but not the bits in-between.)

I would have greatly preferred something that pointed out more clearly what 1 foot of rise will do, what 3 feet will do, what 6 feet will do, and these facts are present but they're not integral to the narrative - and they ought to be.

If you're going to read just one climate-change book, it should be Six Degrees.

[Kirsten · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book was a very quick read, and most of it was very interesting, if a little repetitive. The one part of the book I really could have lived without were the scenarios he created at the beginning of each chapter. I thought they were a little odd, and took away from the general information he was trying to impart.

I think he did a good job of explaining what will potentially happen if we allow sea level to rise (which at this point we don't have a lot of choice). I think the most interesting part of the whole book was the end where various suggestions for how to halt sea level rise were explored. Some of them are far-fetched, but some of them have some merit.

I do feel the author could have done a little better idea condensing various themes a little more, sometimes he repeated himself quite often, but I guess there really is only so much you can say at this point.

[Arjun · Rating 2 out of 5]

Sometimes, the gulf between science and futurism is too wide. And sometimes, the backstory is too severe, too long and too much. The promise of this book (if we can call a vision of the earth under water a "promise") relies on an amazing amount of exposition, the science of what we're doing now, to fully dwell on the earth of the future - which are vigenettes of possible scenes from different points in the future and certainly not the thrust of the book. Not blaming the author here. Probably an editor, or more likely, a marketing department. In many ways, the book's title should have been Apocalypse Now. But that was taken.

[ryn · Rating 3 out of 5]

because the author so often refers to the large advances in climate science and our understanding of the processes of global warming and sea level rise over the decade or less preceding this book's publication, i found myself constantly wondering what the current models showed and how much worse (certainly, worse) the measurements and predictions had become in the years since then - any information made me crave newer information. still, a good read and one that, as a layperson with an interest, this fleshed out some concepts i've picked up over the years and exposed me to ideas and projections i hadn't heard before. so, on to the new stuff.

[Clint · Rating 5 out of 5]

Not a well fit read for anyone that may feel adversely to or have an allergy of global warming or science in general! This was a great read for me. It is a wonderful mix of geological and climatological fact and research interlaced with captivating futuristic fictional scenarios of what could be. We are indeed hurting our planet and its delicate environment, climate, and ecosystems that have been a process of billions of years, within the span of two centuries, there is not a doubt in my mind that global warming exists because of our dependence on fossil fuels.

[Willowwind · Rating 4 out of 5]

A nice presentation of what we know about climate change in the past and likely scenarios of the effects of increasing levels of CO2 in the future. One of an increasing number of books on the subject.

[Michael · Rating 1 out of 5]

Way too cataclysmic in his writing. Yes, I understand the seriousness of the issue. However, the writing was along the lines of catastrophe porn. An important topic but this book will sway none but the true believers. I could not get all the way through this one...

[Foggygirl · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good read, although at times I found myself becoming somewhat depressed when I really stopped to considered how ineffective the west's policies are when it comes to curtailing CO2 emissions (cough Canada).

[Kate Ditzler · Rating 2 out of 5]

Man, this book is depressing.

[Stephanie · Rating 3 out of 5]

Very informative. Though the truth of the matter is depressing. Still, I think we should all read and be aware of the consequences of our lifestyles.

[Izetta Autumn]

You know, just trying to equip myself since we've speeded up our environmental destruction with the oil spill...

[Mary · Rating 3 out of 5]

I didn't follow all the science but enough to make me
think the author knew what he was talking about, and the
potential scenarios were intriguing in a science-fiction
sort of way.

[J. D. · Rating 5 out of 5]

Another tour-de-force. I wonder how the deniers of anthropogenic global warming function without minds.

[Michael · Rating 3 out of 5]

Great book, but I was disappointed with some egregious copy-editing errors. Looked like otnhad been rushed to print.

[Don Kent · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a tough book and it's content is frightening and unfortunately likely to be accurate. It is a must read for those who wish to be ecologically and environmentally aware.

[Andrew Boscardin · Rating 3 out of 5]

Spoiler alert: we're totally f***ed.

[John · Rating 4 out of 5]

A rather depressing look at future climate change; hopefully closer to a worst case scenario, but is well researched and sourced.