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The Confederate States of America: What Might Have Been
"Provocative and compelling…[a] wild ride through Civil War history."― Library Journal What if Lee had avoided defeat at Gettysburg? What if a military stalemate had developed, coupled with growing antiwar sentiment? What if Lincoln had been defeated in the 1864 election and Great Britain had recognized the Confederacy? What would have been the careers of an independent Confederate States of America and a defeated United States?
"No historian has thought through such 'what if' questions as seriously as Roger Ransom," says the Washington Post Book World . A master of historical analysis, Roger L. Ransom follows the consequences of the "what if" scenario over an extended period of time, exploring such issues as the fate of slavery in a CSA, how the economies of the USA and the CSA would have developed, and how their foreign policies would have differed. The result is a fascinating historical vision that is a source of insight into the critical events of the Civil War period as they actually happened.
"No historian has thought through such 'what if' questions as seriously as Roger Ransom," says the Washington Post Book World . A master of historical analysis, Roger L. Ransom follows the consequences of the "what if" scenario over an extended period of time, exploring such issues as the fate of slavery in a CSA, how the economies of the USA and the CSA would have developed, and how their foreign policies would have differed. The result is a fascinating historical vision that is a source of insight into the critical events of the Civil War period as they actually happened.
370 pages, Paperback
First published May 1, 2005
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Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews
January 27, 2013
When someone wants to change the outcome of a war, they usually jump into their time machine and give the losing side modern weapons, like AK-47s. I for one think knowledge is a more potent weapon, so if I wanted to change the outcome of the American Civil War I would go back to 1861 and give Lee and Davis The Confederate States of America: What Might Have Been by Roger L. Ransom.
The Confederate States of America is a counterfactual history of the America stretching from the beginning of the country to the end of this timeline's Great War. This is not a fictional narrative, but instead a scholarly treatise about what strategy the CSA needed to adopt to the win the Civil War. He begins the novel by describing the economic situations of both the North and the South, while undercutting certain misconceptions about the Civil War such as the inevitability of the conflict and the profitability of slavery.
Ransom describes the history of the war itself, showcasing the mistakes the Confederate leadership and their instances of bad luck (i.e. the death of Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson in 1863). Following his breakdown of the war, Ransom presents his counterfactual scenario where the Confederacy adopts a strategy of withdraw in the west, appoints more competent leadership in Tennessee and gives Lee more lucky breaks in his two invasions of the Union. The resulting changes creates a military stalemate and a growing antiwar movement in the Union. Lincoln is then defeated in the 1864 election and Great Britain recognizes the Confederacy. The new Union government takes Britain's offer of a negotiated peace and the war ends with the Treaty of Toronto.
Ransom briefly considers the fates of the two Americas following the end of his counterfactual Civil War and, in light of modern American politics, paints an ironic scenario. For the CSA, Ransom predicts an economic crisis in the 1880s brought on by the rise of foreign cotton markets, low cotton harvest due to depleted soil and declining value of slaves. Assuming that the large planters fail to block any reforms, Ransom believes an anti-slavery coalition would rise and gain control of the presidency (which under the Confederate constitution was a more powerful branch of government than its Union counterpart). This new coalition would adopt a program of compensated emancipation that would hopefully be invested in manufacturing and/or other crops so as to diversify the Confederate economy.
Meanwhile, in the United States, with the failure of a strong central government to keep the nation together, coupled with the nonexistence of the 14th Amendment's due process clause, the states and Congress would become the dominant institutions in the Union. Each state would develop their own economic and social policies without the federal government's interference. Thus you have a North that champions the idea of states' rights and a South with a strong central government with a history of providing economic stimulus directly to its citizens. The obvious difference, however, is that you have a south with a racial caste system which Ransom believes would have been worse for blacks than OTL.
Surprisingly when Ransom takes the opportunity to speculate about foreign affairs he agrees with Harry Turtledove that the Confederacy would ally itself with Britain while the United States, hemmed in by the British in Canada and the Confederacy to the south, would move into Germany's sphere of influence. While some might cringe at his counterfactual epilogue that features President Roosevelt leading the United States in a war against the Confederacy led by President Wilson, you will find that the outcome has more in common with the attempts to create a more plausible Timeline-191 on AH.com than the Turtledove series.
If I have any criticism about Ransom's scenario is his changes to Lee's campaign. In my humble opinion, a more defensive strategy by the famed general would have been a better idea for the CSA, but perhaps Ransom is right in believing that the government of the Confederacy could not afford politically to keep the Army of Northern Virginia contained in the south. You can decide for yourself if you pick up a copy of The Confederate States of America: What Might Have Been, just be warned you cannot get it in e-book.
The Confederate States of America is a counterfactual history of the America stretching from the beginning of the country to the end of this timeline's Great War. This is not a fictional narrative, but instead a scholarly treatise about what strategy the CSA needed to adopt to the win the Civil War. He begins the novel by describing the economic situations of both the North and the South, while undercutting certain misconceptions about the Civil War such as the inevitability of the conflict and the profitability of slavery.
Ransom describes the history of the war itself, showcasing the mistakes the Confederate leadership and their instances of bad luck (i.e. the death of Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson in 1863). Following his breakdown of the war, Ransom presents his counterfactual scenario where the Confederacy adopts a strategy of withdraw in the west, appoints more competent leadership in Tennessee and gives Lee more lucky breaks in his two invasions of the Union. The resulting changes creates a military stalemate and a growing antiwar movement in the Union. Lincoln is then defeated in the 1864 election and Great Britain recognizes the Confederacy. The new Union government takes Britain's offer of a negotiated peace and the war ends with the Treaty of Toronto.
Ransom briefly considers the fates of the two Americas following the end of his counterfactual Civil War and, in light of modern American politics, paints an ironic scenario. For the CSA, Ransom predicts an economic crisis in the 1880s brought on by the rise of foreign cotton markets, low cotton harvest due to depleted soil and declining value of slaves. Assuming that the large planters fail to block any reforms, Ransom believes an anti-slavery coalition would rise and gain control of the presidency (which under the Confederate constitution was a more powerful branch of government than its Union counterpart). This new coalition would adopt a program of compensated emancipation that would hopefully be invested in manufacturing and/or other crops so as to diversify the Confederate economy.
Meanwhile, in the United States, with the failure of a strong central government to keep the nation together, coupled with the nonexistence of the 14th Amendment's due process clause, the states and Congress would become the dominant institutions in the Union. Each state would develop their own economic and social policies without the federal government's interference. Thus you have a North that champions the idea of states' rights and a South with a strong central government with a history of providing economic stimulus directly to its citizens. The obvious difference, however, is that you have a south with a racial caste system which Ransom believes would have been worse for blacks than OTL.
Surprisingly when Ransom takes the opportunity to speculate about foreign affairs he agrees with Harry Turtledove that the Confederacy would ally itself with Britain while the United States, hemmed in by the British in Canada and the Confederacy to the south, would move into Germany's sphere of influence. While some might cringe at his counterfactual epilogue that features President Roosevelt leading the United States in a war against the Confederacy led by President Wilson, you will find that the outcome has more in common with the attempts to create a more plausible Timeline-191 on AH.com than the Turtledove series.
If I have any criticism about Ransom's scenario is his changes to Lee's campaign. In my humble opinion, a more defensive strategy by the famed general would have been a better idea for the CSA, but perhaps Ransom is right in believing that the government of the Confederacy could not afford politically to keep the Army of Northern Virginia contained in the south. You can decide for yourself if you pick up a copy of The Confederate States of America: What Might Have Been, just be warned you cannot get it in e-book.
October 30, 2012
A very well researched book about the Cofederate States of America.
April 13, 2019
I always enjoy alternate history. The discussion of the peace treaty between the Union and Confederacy was interesting, but the idea of Britain, the USA, and CSA negotiating with Spain to divide the Spanish colonial empire between the three powers seems a little too tidy and diplomatic, but maybe I'm too biased by the historical example of the Spanish-American War and the various times European powers threatened to get involved to protect their financial interests in the Caribbean during the late 1800s and early 1900s.
June 21, 2018
This book covers a few small changes that could have resulted in Confederate victory in the war, though the epilogue's pat response to the entire book seemed to negate the entire point of the book.
December 30, 2020
I enjoyed this counterfactual interpretation
February 18, 2014
I have read numerous books about how the South could have won the Civil War. Some better than others.
This is not a novel. it is a scholarly attempt by Roger Ransom to examine what happens after 1865 to the Confederate States of America after their victory over Federal forces.
Excellant footnotes and bibliography. The sections regarding economics were well written and thought provoking. He made numerous references to other 'counterfactual' books and articles.
However, some of the information about the Civil War itself was flat out in error. Two examples:
Pickett's Division did not lose 7,000 men on the 3rd day of Gettysburg as Ransom wrote. At most Pickett went into battle with 5800 to 6000 men in his division. Reports are he lost killed, wounded and missing about 3000. I assume that Ransom meant the entire Confederate force of between 12,000 and 15,000 lost 7000 men in the attack.
Also Ransom wrote that the army of Confederate Gen'l Early was basically destroyed in a battle with Phil Sheridan at Winchester, VA. Actually Early was crushed at the battle of Cedar Creek 19 Oct 1864.
But for the most part this was a very good book.
This is not a novel. it is a scholarly attempt by Roger Ransom to examine what happens after 1865 to the Confederate States of America after their victory over Federal forces.
Excellant footnotes and bibliography. The sections regarding economics were well written and thought provoking. He made numerous references to other 'counterfactual' books and articles.
However, some of the information about the Civil War itself was flat out in error. Two examples:
Pickett's Division did not lose 7,000 men on the 3rd day of Gettysburg as Ransom wrote. At most Pickett went into battle with 5800 to 6000 men in his division. Reports are he lost killed, wounded and missing about 3000. I assume that Ransom meant the entire Confederate force of between 12,000 and 15,000 lost 7000 men in the attack.
Also Ransom wrote that the army of Confederate Gen'l Early was basically destroyed in a battle with Phil Sheridan at Winchester, VA. Actually Early was crushed at the battle of Cedar Creek 19 Oct 1864.
But for the most part this was a very good book.
October 4, 2009
Maybe I'm strange, but I love talking with my friends about the "what ifs" in history. What if Hitler would have stopped with Austria. What if Watergate was never uncovered. What if the Confederacy won the Civil War.
It's this last "what if" that makes up Ransom's interesting and very dense book. This isn't a novel you can sit down and read in one setting, but for history buffs who like to see a possible "alternate universe," this is a must-read. What's nice is this book goes through what really happened, for those of us who have been out of school for a while, before delving into what might have happened. It's one thing to debate what could have happened just at the country level, but it's another to look at the world impact -- the effect in international relations, the construction of the Panama canal. At the end, Ransom theorizes, the United States may very well have allied with Germany in World War I, while the Confederacy may have allied with Great Britain, and he explains why.
It's this last "what if" that makes up Ransom's interesting and very dense book. This isn't a novel you can sit down and read in one setting, but for history buffs who like to see a possible "alternate universe," this is a must-read. What's nice is this book goes through what really happened, for those of us who have been out of school for a while, before delving into what might have happened. It's one thing to debate what could have happened just at the country level, but it's another to look at the world impact -- the effect in international relations, the construction of the Panama canal. At the end, Ransom theorizes, the United States may very well have allied with Germany in World War I, while the Confederacy may have allied with Great Britain, and he explains why.
January 30, 2015
The first half of this book, the intro, and an alternative history scenario about how the Confederacy could have won the Civil War, is plausible.
The second half, about what would have happened after 1865?
Not very plausible at all.
1. New Mexico would have resisted being part of South in any peace treaty; Hispanics hated Texans; NM whites would often have joined them in an internal Confederate Civil War, especially if NM residents would have supplied Comanches
2. Lincoln in 1863 couldn’t get tiny Delaware to agree to compensated gradual emancipation to end in 1900. No way the South does emancipation, compensated but immediate, in 1880s. Also no way the South’s economy has changed to move to a free soil and industrial base by that time, and it’s still not attracting immigrants. Ergo, why end slavery?
3. No way the South takes Cuba by itself.
The second half, about what would have happened after 1865?
Not very plausible at all.
1. New Mexico would have resisted being part of South in any peace treaty; Hispanics hated Texans; NM whites would often have joined them in an internal Confederate Civil War, especially if NM residents would have supplied Comanches
2. Lincoln in 1863 couldn’t get tiny Delaware to agree to compensated gradual emancipation to end in 1900. No way the South does emancipation, compensated but immediate, in 1880s. Also no way the South’s economy has changed to move to a free soil and industrial base by that time, and it’s still not attracting immigrants. Ergo, why end slavery?
3. No way the South takes Cuba by itself.
August 6, 2016
If you're familiar with the events of the Civil War, the first few chapters can seem tedious, but remember, this was written by an academic as a serious counterfactual history of the Civil War and the Confederacy. I found it to be the most well-reasoned "alternative history" of the CSA I have yet read. It was not as interesting a read as I expected, but it was very believable and I'm glad I stayed with it.
July 19, 2015
This is one of the more cerebral counterfactuals I have seen in many years. Ransom approaches the subject as something of an economist and delivers up some thoughtful ideas about the way a Confederate victory may have occurred (as usual, at Gettysburg). The concluding scene (after a war in 1918) is ludicrous, ruining the effect.
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March 7, 2010cool book. counterfactual reality (?) but well done mix of facts and what could have happened and the result of that. i like it.
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