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The Thinker's Toolkit: Fourteen Skills for Making Smarter Decisions in Business and in Life
An invaluable resource for any manager or professional, this book offers a collection of proven, practical methods for simplifying any problem and making faster, better decisions every time.
348 pages, Hardcover
First published October 3, 1995
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 45 reviews
March 15, 2020
Some really nice approaches to analysis made really simple:
- problem restatement,
- decision trees,
- matrices,
- ranking,
- hypothesis testing
- utility analysis and others
- problem restatement,
- decision trees,
- matrices,
- ranking,
- hypothesis testing
- utility analysis and others
December 17, 2018
Достаточно адекватная, несмотря на сомнительная название, книга про рациональный выбор. Древо решений, матрицы, вероятности, групповое обсуждение, сортировка.
September 25, 2011
Read as a part of a graduate course. The greatest aspect of this book is also its greatest shortfall and that is: a prescriptive approach to problem-solving. These are basic and foundational concepts for dealing with uncertain and complex situations. What is useful is that the author readily admits that many of these tools are (at least partially) used already within the mind of the reader. What the text does accomplish is providing the reader with an awareness of how they misapply or only partially apply these tools, and thus self-defeating its application (which creates additional cognitive dissonance and confusion).
Low-hanging fruit. A good text for under/graduate classwork, as is foundational to much more fruitful and deeper analysis for successful decision-making.
Low-hanging fruit. A good text for under/graduate classwork, as is foundational to much more fruitful and deeper analysis for successful decision-making.
December 11, 2008
One of the best books I've seen on analysis so far. Relatively simple, well structured, has good examples and interesting practice exercises.
"Learning by doing" - the good quote for describing this reading; really, it took some time - not just to *read*, but to apply the described techniques: every technique is *complex* during first application, but becomes just natural afterward :)
Highly recommended, if you are interested in structured analysis and application of mind tools to your everyday tasks.
It could be your first book on analysis, as it contains a valuable list of "next actions".
"Learning by doing" - the good quote for describing this reading; really, it took some time - not just to *read*, but to apply the described techniques: every technique is *complex* during first application, but becomes just natural afterward :)
Highly recommended, if you are interested in structured analysis and application of mind tools to your everyday tasks.
It could be your first book on analysis, as it contains a valuable list of "next actions".
March 3, 2017
Offers a good set of analytical tools for complex problem solving. If you can assemble all the right inputs, these tools help you get the right outputs. However, in my experience, the hard part is agreeing on the correct inputs (options, probabilities and range of outcomes).
If you're interested in this book, you should commit to doing the exercises in it. In that respect, this book is almost like a class. Reminds me of a class that I took at UT. Needless the say, the book is cheaper.
If you're interested in this book, you should commit to doing the exercises in it. In that respect, this book is almost like a class. Reminds me of a class that I took at UT. Needless the say, the book is cheaper.
March 8, 2017
Jones has numerous great frameworks that provide for a concise way to think about thinking. I am totally going to use her work to aid my own. The 14 techniques are not for every single type of analysis, but they are valuable for sure. I like how she lays out the types of decisions and where the complications exist.
Page 51: Taxonomy of Problem Types is fantastic. The four types make sense sand really describe why some decisions are easy and others require a more methodological process.
I like the way she describes divergent vs. convergent thinking. It's quite brilliant.
As relates to the difficulty of problem refinement, the common pitfalls she lays out does a great job of clarifying.
I wouldn't use all of the techniques in all cases. Still, the book deserves a read for sure.
Page 51: Taxonomy of Problem Types is fantastic. The four types make sense sand really describe why some decisions are easy and others require a more methodological process.
I like the way she describes divergent vs. convergent thinking. It's quite brilliant.
As relates to the difficulty of problem refinement, the common pitfalls she lays out does a great job of clarifying.
I wouldn't use all of the techniques in all cases. Still, the book deserves a read for sure.
March 28, 2021
Top tier book. I would dare say the demonstration of the tools and the heaps of examples offer in this book are superior to what you can find from available sources. I specifically like the explanation of psychological aspects of the tools, as I too understand the importance of those aspects in implementing tools successfully.
Besides, the author provided the specific way to perform and implement the all-so-families frameworks, and it is exactly this part that brings the added value to the book.
Besides, the author provided the specific way to perform and implement the all-so-families frameworks, and it is exactly this part that brings the added value to the book.
January 22, 2026
This was a good book. Although I was already aware of expected value and probability matrices, the examples provided really helped me see how they can be utilized in a real-world context to assist with decision-making.
Many mathematical methods require a substantial amount of data. Expected value is a valid method, but we are usually missing essential parameters such as weights or utility (the desirability of various options). Since we do not have exact data for many of the situations brought up in the book—such as the probability of good weather in New York on the day we plan to be there—we must take extra care. Rather than using these methods to reinforce what we have already decided, we should tweak them to reflect our internal decision-making processes, using them as a tool to guide us. The author actually highlights this issue, warning us not to get trapped into reverse-engineering our conclusions.
Overall, this is a great book for demonstrating that incorporating structure, and sometimes just putting pen to paper, can have significant benefits for the "sanity" of our decision-making.
Another point I found very useful was the author’s solution for our natural tendency for risk aversion. He notes that we are often more motivated by avoiding loss than by achieving a prize (This conclusion corresponds with findings from scientific studies). This means we are more likely to remain inactive because we magnify threats compared to rewards, which introduces an imbalance into our process. To counter this, he suggests that when making a list of pros and cons, we should try to "add fixes" for the cons. By shrinking the "cons" section through mitigation strategies, we account for our natural tendency to be risk-averse.
Ultimately, he advises that breaking things down—rather than thinking about complex problems as a single whole—prevents emotions from making an analytical approach feel mundane or exhausting. By introducing a little structure to the thought process and breaking down the problems, we can achieve much better results.
A couple of issues: Although I understand that the author wants readers to work through the problems, the reality is that many will not do so outside of a classroom setting. I believe showing one example with solutions (as the author has done) is sufficient. There is no need to add so many pages asking the reader to solve problems, especially considering the prevalence of e-books today (and of course that the attention span of the whole society has shrunk considerably in the past decade). This added considerable volume without actually progressing the content, which I consider a negative factor.
Many mathematical methods require a substantial amount of data. Expected value is a valid method, but we are usually missing essential parameters such as weights or utility (the desirability of various options). Since we do not have exact data for many of the situations brought up in the book—such as the probability of good weather in New York on the day we plan to be there—we must take extra care. Rather than using these methods to reinforce what we have already decided, we should tweak them to reflect our internal decision-making processes, using them as a tool to guide us. The author actually highlights this issue, warning us not to get trapped into reverse-engineering our conclusions.
Overall, this is a great book for demonstrating that incorporating structure, and sometimes just putting pen to paper, can have significant benefits for the "sanity" of our decision-making.
Another point I found very useful was the author’s solution for our natural tendency for risk aversion. He notes that we are often more motivated by avoiding loss than by achieving a prize (This conclusion corresponds with findings from scientific studies). This means we are more likely to remain inactive because we magnify threats compared to rewards, which introduces an imbalance into our process. To counter this, he suggests that when making a list of pros and cons, we should try to "add fixes" for the cons. By shrinking the "cons" section through mitigation strategies, we account for our natural tendency to be risk-averse.
Ultimately, he advises that breaking things down—rather than thinking about complex problems as a single whole—prevents emotions from making an analytical approach feel mundane or exhausting. By introducing a little structure to the thought process and breaking down the problems, we can achieve much better results.
A couple of issues: Although I understand that the author wants readers to work through the problems, the reality is that many will not do so outside of a classroom setting. I believe showing one example with solutions (as the author has done) is sufficient. There is no need to add so many pages asking the reader to solve problems, especially considering the prevalence of e-books today (and of course that the attention span of the whole society has shrunk considerably in the past decade). This added considerable volume without actually progressing the content, which I consider a negative factor.
August 19, 2020
A bunch of different ways to structure problems to make better decisions. The goal is to avoid errors that come from natural human thought habits, such as our tendency to satisfice (take the first acceptable solution instead of looking for the best one), ignore information that doesn't agree with our preconceived ideas or our preferences, and see patterns that might not exist.
Useful. The explanations are clear and there are exercises to practice each technique. The author recommends doing even more practice, using problems reported in the news. There's also a bibliography if you want more depth on the subjects (probability gets just one 20-page chapter here, for instance, definitely a once-over-lightly take on that subject). An annotated list in the last chapter suggests what kinds of problems might be most suited to each method or combination of methods.
It's also a more fun and interesting read than you might expect. The examples include things like the case of a nurse whose ICU patients kept dying, an organization trying to decide where to hold a conference, and a federal agency deciding whether to allow U.S. companies to subcontract on upgrading Soviet MIG planes owned by India. I did get a little tired of the jars of jelly beans, and I wanted the rest of the story on a couple of the more interesting case studies. Overall, though, this one is much less dry than you'd expect.
I particularly like the last step in each method: perform a sanity check.
A reread, on my shelves since about 1995. It looks like I stopped at the Devil's Advocate chapter back then. At the time, I was working with a master of the devil's advocate technique, who drove me crazy by continually poking holes in what I felt were my perfectly adequate conclusions, forcing me to strengthen my own thinking and occasionally change my mind, painful though it was. That's the value of a lot of these techniques - by looking at the problem in different ways, you see things you might have overlooked, and you end up with not only better decisions but a more robust understanding so you can explain and defend them to people whose own mental blinders are in their way. A couple of the techniques have you explicitly analyze the problem from different perspectives.
And what does structuring do? It separates a problem into its constituent elements in an organized way that enables us to focus on each one separately, systematically, and sufficiently.
Useful. The explanations are clear and there are exercises to practice each technique. The author recommends doing even more practice, using problems reported in the news. There's also a bibliography if you want more depth on the subjects (probability gets just one 20-page chapter here, for instance, definitely a once-over-lightly take on that subject). An annotated list in the last chapter suggests what kinds of problems might be most suited to each method or combination of methods.
It's also a more fun and interesting read than you might expect. The examples include things like the case of a nurse whose ICU patients kept dying, an organization trying to decide where to hold a conference, and a federal agency deciding whether to allow U.S. companies to subcontract on upgrading Soviet MIG planes owned by India. I did get a little tired of the jars of jelly beans, and I wanted the rest of the story on a couple of the more interesting case studies. Overall, though, this one is much less dry than you'd expect.
I particularly like the last step in each method: perform a sanity check.
A reread, on my shelves since about 1995. It looks like I stopped at the Devil's Advocate chapter back then. At the time, I was working with a master of the devil's advocate technique, who drove me crazy by continually poking holes in what I felt were my perfectly adequate conclusions, forcing me to strengthen my own thinking and occasionally change my mind, painful though it was. That's the value of a lot of these techniques - by looking at the problem in different ways, you see things you might have overlooked, and you end up with not only better decisions but a more robust understanding so you can explain and defend them to people whose own mental blinders are in their way. A couple of the techniques have you explicitly analyze the problem from different perspectives.
September 6, 2024
I really enjoyed this book and the approach it took. It is heavy on the exercises and the reader should definitely take an opportunity to do them. It might feel a little bit like a course book with the exercises, but worth the time in order to get the better understanding of the concepts being presented. Some of the exercises can be frustrating because they are based on a fictional story and the solutions are subjective, nevertheless, going through the setup and working through the problem is helpful.
The book is essentially a list of 14 techniques one can use to make better decisions. The advice applies to a variety of issues you might face from evaluating a binary choice (yes/no) to a more complex and nuanced decisions.
The key message of the book is to be aware that our minds prefer "the first solution that pops into our minds that looks good enough" and we should build a habit of rejecting this "satisfying" approach. Instead we can choose to become more systematic and use analysis to study the problem, come up with many solutions, and then have a framework in place for evaluating the solutions.
When approaching problem solving this way, you get a deeper understanding of what you are dealing with and could also come up with ideas that you never even considered before you started. I also loved the idea he talked about where you switch your mind from convergent mode, our default where we try to narrow down to a specific, to divergent mode where you explore the solution space more and get to know the problem space better.
The book is essentially a list of 14 techniques one can use to make better decisions. The advice applies to a variety of issues you might face from evaluating a binary choice (yes/no) to a more complex and nuanced decisions.
The key message of the book is to be aware that our minds prefer "the first solution that pops into our minds that looks good enough" and we should build a habit of rejecting this "satisfying" approach. Instead we can choose to become more systematic and use analysis to study the problem, come up with many solutions, and then have a framework in place for evaluating the solutions.
When approaching problem solving this way, you get a deeper understanding of what you are dealing with and could also come up with ideas that you never even considered before you started. I also loved the idea he talked about where you switch your mind from convergent mode, our default where we try to narrow down to a specific, to divergent mode where you explore the solution space more and get to know the problem space better.
February 21, 2022
I can see this being one of those books that I look back on as being personally revolutionary and world-view changing. I like to think that I am worse at decision-making than the average person, spending tremendous amounts of time "thinking" and meditating on what to do next. Truth of the matter is that we're all quite bad at it due to our mental biases. Furthermore, most of us assume that using our intuition with reason lightly sprinkled on top should suffice in decision making. Jones introduces a Russellian (Bertrand Russell) solution to our ill: analytical structured decision making. Using weighted trees, probability trees, and casual flows first comes off as bizarre and eccentric to the average person who hasn't dealt with such methods. But by the time you are done reading Toolkit you feel overwhelmed by the possibilities and doors unlocked with using these methods.
This is a must read for anybody in a leadership position small or large. It is frankly quite surprising that not all people who serve in positions of leadership (typically and especially on the smaller scale) use the methods proscribed by the book.
This is a must read for anybody in a leadership position small or large. It is frankly quite surprising that not all people who serve in positions of leadership (typically and especially on the smaller scale) use the methods proscribed by the book.
July 28, 2022
I can see this being one of those books that I look back on as being personally revolutionary and world-view changing. I like to think that I am worse at decision-making than the average person, spending tremendous amounts of time "thinking" and meditating on what to do next. Truth of the matter is that we're all quite bad at it due to our mental biases. Furthermore, most of us assume that using our intuition with reason lightly sprinkled on top should suffice in decision making. Jones introduces a Russellian (Bertrand Russell) solution to our ill: analytical structured decision making. Using weighted trees, probability trees, and casual flows first comes off as bizarre and eccentric to the average person who hasn't dealt with such methods. But by the time you are done reading Toolkit you feel overwhelmed by the possibilities and doors unlocked with using these methods.
This is a must read for anybody in a leadership position small or large. It is frankly quite surprising that not all people who serve in positions of leadership (typically and especially on the smaller scale) use the methods proscribed by the book.
This is a must read for anybody in a leadership position small or large. It is frankly quite surprising that not all people who serve in positions of leadership (typically and especially on the smaller scale) use the methods proscribed by the book.
May 10, 2019
Книга не столько о решении проблем, сколько о структурировании информации для более эффективного их решения. Описанные методики направлены на выявление возможных альтернатив и устранение "белых пятен" в ходе обсуждения/решения проблем. Каждый инструмент подкреплен практическими примерами и задачами на "самостоятельное" решение.
Надо учесть, что для инструментов, в которых используются "вероятность", например, для расчета ожидаемой полезности решения, вероятность дается как готовый результат и совсем не описано (1) как следует оценивать вероятность событий (особенно редких) и (2) насколько субъективная оценка будет реалистичной (ведь люди часто переоценивают вероятность маловероятных событий и наоборот). Книга может быть крайне полезна для тех, кто "исповедует" системный подход к решению проблем.
Надо учесть, что для инструментов, в которых используются "вероятность", например, для расчета ожидаемой полезности решения, вероятность дается как готовый результат и совсем не описано (1) как следует оценивать вероятность событий (особенно редких) и (2) насколько субъективная оценка будет реалистичной (ведь люди часто переоценивают вероятность маловероятных событий и наоборот). Книга может быть крайне полезна для тех, кто "исповедует" системный подход к решению проблем.
February 19, 2024
This was a great read and overview of analytical approaches to problems/decision making processes.
I'm definitely planning on using the easier approaches in daily life while the more complex ones I'll leave analysts to use in their daily work/life.
It's refreshing to both be surprised and validated in how our mind works, how we can use it and gain better results.
Highly recommended read. Though be aware - you must do the exercises to get the gist of the approaches. And it's not always an easy read.
I'm definitely planning on using the easier approaches in daily life while the more complex ones I'll leave analysts to use in their daily work/life.
It's refreshing to both be surprised and validated in how our mind works, how we can use it and gain better results.
Highly recommended read. Though be aware - you must do the exercises to get the gist of the approaches. And it's not always an easy read.
December 24, 2020
Most of us are analytical, objective, clear-headed, and scientific until we realise what they really mean. Very interesting to learn the concepts and analytic tools that are so potent and essential in analysing the problems, solutions, and alternatives.
Hope to put an end to shaat-boot-three as well as the ‘analytical/objective/scientific’ version of shaat-boot-three. Hope😄, no must😎
Hope to put an end to shaat-boot-three as well as the ‘analytical/objective/scientific’ version of shaat-boot-three. Hope😄, no must😎
March 3, 2018
Liked the widening the problem , convergent and divergent techniques
July 1, 2019
Recommend
Useful practical tools that can be used in your work to analyze and solve problems. Great exercises to teach the concepts
Useful practical tools that can be used in your work to analyze and solve problems. Great exercises to teach the concepts
July 2, 2020
Great reference book for applying various troubleshooting techniques for attacking problems of various degree's and complexities.
July 14, 2021
basic but useful techniques for solvers to avoid biases
September 17, 2022
First textbook I had to read for school that was a textbook lol
September 19, 2022
Good review of some helpful thinking tools, and gave me some names to codify some ways of thinking that I've already used, informally.
October 18, 2022
Interesante, aunque reconozco que no me apetecía hacer los ejercicios y acabó aburriéndome un poco tanto análisis enlatado.
May 29, 2025
I thought I was over having to read assigned books once I graduated school, but apparently not at my workplace 😔
November 28, 2025
Excellent book. Highly recommend.
November 7, 2016
Great tools
I enjoyed reading and learning the 14 tools for problem solving.
The book contained no a lot of examples and easy step by step instructions
I enjoyed reading and learning the 14 tools for problem solving.
The book contained no a lot of examples and easy step by step instructions
March 27, 2021
Lesson from this book:
The power of group consensus thinking, “A group’s consensus judgement is usually more accurate than the judgement of individual members”. It then proceeds to give you practical exercises to show why this hypothesis is accurate, unless your group is an exception to this rule
The power of group consensus thinking, “A group’s consensus judgement is usually more accurate than the judgement of individual members”. It then proceeds to give you practical exercises to show why this hypothesis is accurate, unless your group is an exception to this rule
March 10, 2017
Great book for anyone who makes bad decisions, which is all of us. Wish I had a framework like this years ago!
October 7, 2009
This book is not written very well. It is written as if a bad motivational speaker is talking to you. Kind of hokie and a little bizarre because of how he make statements that say "you can ask anybody this" and appealing that this is general or well known knowledge. I did not enjoy how he did that. Also he makes claims about how humans are and act without any evidence to support it. He is just telling you that is how it is. It may be true but it is just his word he is using to support it.
Despite all of this, you can definitely see the value in the techniques that he presents. He does a good job of setting it up and explaining how to do it. There are a number of examples and problems in the book to practice the techniques.
all in all a good book for learning how to more effectively problem solve.
Despite all of this, you can definitely see the value in the techniques that he presents. He does a good job of setting it up and explaining how to do it. There are a number of examples and problems in the book to practice the techniques.
all in all a good book for learning how to more effectively problem solve.
September 5, 2011
I zipped right through this one, as it's basically an operations research text with the mathematics watered down. This isn't meant to be taken negatively; the book is quite good at what it aims to do, which is to teach how to structure analysis to the general public. It's explanations are lucid and illustrated with plenty of good exercises to work through. If the author seems a bit too "gee whiz" about the psychological aspects, that's not entirely unexpected when the psychology and interpretations are cherry-picked to act as in-text sales points.
Overall, good for the general public who wants to learn to problem solve more effectively, and good for an OR professional who's versed in the quantitative end but could use a refresher on how it applies to the real world.
Overall, good for the general public who wants to learn to problem solve more effectively, and good for an OR professional who's versed in the quantitative end but could use a refresher on how it applies to the real world.
January 12, 2015
This book is not perfect - at times it offers too many examples and not enough explanation, and this leads to confusion. Still, it's a useful collection of different methods that can be used to think through problems. Some I doubt would be all that useful to me (I don't trust my own judgment well enough to come up with the probabilities for various things occurring, so I don't think I'll ever be using utility trees/matrices), but others are surprisingly simple, like coming up with not just a list of pros and cons, but also fixes for the cons.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 45 reviews