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中國大趨勢
奈斯比打比方：三十年前的中國，彷彿是一家氣息奄奄的大公司，但在鄧小平、江澤民，和胡錦濤三位前後任執行長帶領下，這家公司從破產邊緣、蛻變成大賺錢的全球第三大企業，安然度過每一次的危機。中國如何脫胎換骨的轉型、建立一個嶄新的社會與經濟制度？奈斯比在書中提出他長期研究的答案，共有「八大支柱」架構並支撐它的成功：解放思想、『自上而下』與『自下而上』的結合、圈地造林讓樹木自由生長、摸著石頭過河、藝術與學術的結合、融入世界、自由與公平、從奧運金牌到諾貝爾獎。
中國是個讓人太多困惑的存在：藝術家和企業家不斷衝撞現存體制與觀念，速度快得像攔截不了的火車頭；但在媒體與出版的掌控上，僵化的現象不時令人驚詫。經濟上，中國已從毛毛蟲蛻變為美麗的蝴蝶；但在政治模式上，中國仍躲藏在共產黨的「毛毛蟲」外衣下。中國何時才能向全面的政治解放跨出勇敢的第一步，讓蝴蝶自由飛翔，全世界都在看。
對關心中國，卻看不懂中國，想在各種矛盾與衝突的現狀中理出頭緒者，《中國大趨勢》提供一把邏輯清晰、條理分明、充滿閱讀樂趣的鑰匙。
中國是個讓人太多困惑的存在：藝術家和企業家不斷衝撞現存體制與觀念，速度快得像攔截不了的火車頭；但在媒體與出版的掌控上，僵化的現象不時令人驚詫。經濟上，中國已從毛毛蟲蛻變為美麗的蝴蝶；但在政治模式上，中國仍躲藏在共產黨的「毛毛蟲」外衣下。中國何時才能向全面的政治解放跨出勇敢的第一步，讓蝴蝶自由飛翔，全世界都在看。
對關心中國，卻看不懂中國，想在各種矛盾與衝突的現狀中理出頭緒者，《中國大趨勢》提供一把邏輯清晰、條理分明、充滿閱讀樂趣的鑰匙。
283 pages, Paperback
First published October 1, 2009
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152 people want to read
About the author
John Naisbitt
60 books63 followersAfter serving in the U.S. Marine Corps and after finishing his studies in at Utah, Cornell and Harvard, he worked as an executive in the coporate world, was called to be Assistant Secretary of Education under President Kennedy when he was 34, and worked as Special Assistant for President Johnson. He has witnessed America going throubled times and good times.
He has traveled the world since the late 1960s, keeping in close touch with corporations and people in many fields of endeavor. He has spoken to virtually every major corporation, to many several times. His cultural life and residence in the United States, Europe and now China keeps him in direct in touch with a changing economic environment -- experience that is reflected in the books he has written.
His international bestseller Megatrends sold more than 9 million copies and was on the New York Times bestsellerlist for more than two years, mostly as number one. John Naisbitt published the international bestsellers Re-inventing the Corporation in 1985, Megatrends 2000 in 1990, which was published in 32 countries and was the Number One bestseller in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, and Megatrends for Women in 1992 (co-authored with Patricia Aburdene). His Japanese language book, Japan's Identity Crisis, was released in 1992 and was a bestseller in Japan.
His 1994 book, Global Paradox, received England's World Review Award for The Best Book of The Year. Megatrends Asia 1995, was a bestseller in the German language and in Asia. High Tech High Touch, was published in the fall of 1999 and has since been published in 17 countries. His last book Mind Set! was published in 42 countries. The Wall Street Journal called his work “triumphantly useful…taking bearings in all directions and giving us the courage to do the same.”
* Studied at Harvard, Cornell and Utah Universities
* Former executive with IBM and Eastman Kodak
* Assistant Secretary of Education to President Kennedy
* Special Assistant to President Johnson
* Former visiting fellow at Harvard University, visiting professor at Moscow State University, and current faculty member at the
* Nanjing University in China
* Distinguished International Fellow, Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), Malaysia -- the first non-Asian to hold this appointment
* Recipient of 15 honorary doctorates in the humanities, technology and science
Source: His Official Web page
He has traveled the world since the late 1960s, keeping in close touch with corporations and people in many fields of endeavor. He has spoken to virtually every major corporation, to many several times. His cultural life and residence in the United States, Europe and now China keeps him in direct in touch with a changing economic environment -- experience that is reflected in the books he has written.
His international bestseller Megatrends sold more than 9 million copies and was on the New York Times bestsellerlist for more than two years, mostly as number one. John Naisbitt published the international bestsellers Re-inventing the Corporation in 1985, Megatrends 2000 in 1990, which was published in 32 countries and was the Number One bestseller in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, and Megatrends for Women in 1992 (co-authored with Patricia Aburdene). His Japanese language book, Japan's Identity Crisis, was released in 1992 and was a bestseller in Japan.
His 1994 book, Global Paradox, received England's World Review Award for The Best Book of The Year. Megatrends Asia 1995, was a bestseller in the German language and in Asia. High Tech High Touch, was published in the fall of 1999 and has since been published in 17 countries. His last book Mind Set! was published in 42 countries. The Wall Street Journal called his work “triumphantly useful…taking bearings in all directions and giving us the courage to do the same.”
* Studied at Harvard, Cornell and Utah Universities
* Former executive with IBM and Eastman Kodak
* Assistant Secretary of Education to President Kennedy
* Special Assistant to President Johnson
* Former visiting fellow at Harvard University, visiting professor at Moscow State University, and current faculty member at the
* Nanjing University in China
* Distinguished International Fellow, Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), Malaysia -- the first non-Asian to hold this appointment
* Recipient of 15 honorary doctorates in the humanities, technology and science
Source: His Official Web page
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Displaying 1 - 20 of 20 reviews
November 22, 2012
China’s Megatrends, The 8 Pillars of a New Society
John and Doris Naisbitt
Harper Collins, 2010
Opinions about this book fall into two very separate categories, those who see in it an explanation of how China has achieved such great change in a short time, and those who see it as merely propaganda for the government.
Here is are the Chapter titles:
Emancipating the Mind
Balancing Top-Down and Bottom-Up
Framing the Forest and Letting the Trees Grow
Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones
Artistic and Intellectual Ferment
Joining the World
Freedom and Fairness
From Olympic Medals to Nobel Prizes
The definition of ‘democracy’ has been appropriated by western government rhetoric and media reporting of international events (geopolitics) and is used to represent a specific form of political organization. The normal definition of ‘democracy’ in the west always includes some form of election process, usually organized as a competition between two or more ‘parties’. This definition also includes some form of voting procedure where rights to vote are assigned by legal description (remember ‘one man, one vote’).
Naisbitt describes China’s Communism with Chinese Characteristics as an alternate ‘democracy’ called Vertical Democracy. The leadership of this alternate model is the CPC. Leadership is described by Naisbitt as ‘context leadership’ where leaders set a context in which the group can be successful. He talks about frameworks that are not prescriptive but provide direction for trying things out. This is the story of how China has changed itself particularly since 1978. China’s forward development is undeniable. Economic reform gradually introduced the market model first in small ways, then involving larger State Owned Enterprises. The goal of making more money has succeeded in transforming the lives of millions. Improving the quality of life culturally and environmentally are now seen as appropriate goals.
John and Doris Naisbitt
Harper Collins, 2010
Opinions about this book fall into two very separate categories, those who see in it an explanation of how China has achieved such great change in a short time, and those who see it as merely propaganda for the government.
Here is are the Chapter titles:
Emancipating the Mind
Balancing Top-Down and Bottom-Up
Framing the Forest and Letting the Trees Grow
Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones
Artistic and Intellectual Ferment
Joining the World
Freedom and Fairness
From Olympic Medals to Nobel Prizes
The definition of ‘democracy’ has been appropriated by western government rhetoric and media reporting of international events (geopolitics) and is used to represent a specific form of political organization. The normal definition of ‘democracy’ in the west always includes some form of election process, usually organized as a competition between two or more ‘parties’. This definition also includes some form of voting procedure where rights to vote are assigned by legal description (remember ‘one man, one vote’).
Naisbitt describes China’s Communism with Chinese Characteristics as an alternate ‘democracy’ called Vertical Democracy. The leadership of this alternate model is the CPC. Leadership is described by Naisbitt as ‘context leadership’ where leaders set a context in which the group can be successful. He talks about frameworks that are not prescriptive but provide direction for trying things out. This is the story of how China has changed itself particularly since 1978. China’s forward development is undeniable. Economic reform gradually introduced the market model first in small ways, then involving larger State Owned Enterprises. The goal of making more money has succeeded in transforming the lives of millions. Improving the quality of life culturally and environmentally are now seen as appropriate goals.
March 21, 2013
This was just an OK book; the insights into the Chinese "megatrends" were not that impressive, and the book overall was fairly repetitive and said a lot of things I've heard before many times.
What was interesting, though, was the highly positive westerner's view of China's progress. Naisbitt has spent a lot of time in China over the past several decades, and also has a lot of knowledge of business and economics in the west. So John Naisbitt is hardly a naive babe in the woods. But he has a highly positive view of China, not just its economic successes but also its political progress and its future. We're accustomed to hearing the Chinese say how the west can't judge China in light of western values. But Naisbitt explains it in a very interesting way that seems more convincing. Initially I was frustrated that he was so relentlessly, single-mindedly positive about China with zero criticism, but it was interesting to see a westerner's perspective that was that way. He takes them at face value and looks at the country's politics, economy, and culture from a neutral stance.
His take on Tibet, by the way, is especially fascinating. You don't get much of a critical look at the claims of the "Free Tibet" movement in the western media.
What was interesting, though, was the highly positive westerner's view of China's progress. Naisbitt has spent a lot of time in China over the past several decades, and also has a lot of knowledge of business and economics in the west. So John Naisbitt is hardly a naive babe in the woods. But he has a highly positive view of China, not just its economic successes but also its political progress and its future. We're accustomed to hearing the Chinese say how the west can't judge China in light of western values. But Naisbitt explains it in a very interesting way that seems more convincing. Initially I was frustrated that he was so relentlessly, single-mindedly positive about China with zero criticism, but it was interesting to see a westerner's perspective that was that way. He takes them at face value and looks at the country's politics, economy, and culture from a neutral stance.
His take on Tibet, by the way, is especially fascinating. You don't get much of a critical look at the claims of the "Free Tibet" movement in the western media.
May 23, 2018
Interesting perspective on China’s growth thru the eyes of someone who has spent a great deal of time there. The contention is that the west has labelled China w a number of faults without equally labelling some of the great successes and generally not speaking about the direction the country is taking.
The successes that they have had since Mao in the areas of education, economics, social services, culture, civil rights, technology, the environment, etc, etc...are astounding. The main question seems to be, Is China a Communist society wearing a capitalist coat or a capitalist Economy wearing a Communist coat??
The successes that they have had since Mao in the areas of education, economics, social services, culture, civil rights, technology, the environment, etc, etc...are astounding. The main question seems to be, Is China a Communist society wearing a capitalist coat or a capitalist Economy wearing a Communist coat??
May 6, 2020
This pop-economics book discusses China's rise as an economic power since the end of the Cultural Revolution. The authors are strongly pro-China, and as such, they sometimes feel like they are going out of their way to excuse some of the criticism leveled at the Chinese government.
The book is also a bit dated at this point. It does serve as a good refresher on some of the history of economic growth in China. It has some interesting profiles of Chinese entrepreneurs which were really the highlight of the book for me. In general, this book worked best in the parts where it was personal rather than sweepingly political.
The book is also a bit dated at this point. It does serve as a good refresher on some of the history of economic growth in China. It has some interesting profiles of Chinese entrepreneurs which were really the highlight of the book for me. In general, this book worked best in the parts where it was personal rather than sweepingly political.
June 19, 2012
Covers a lot of bases on China's growth and future plans, and has a lot of little-known facts about different individuals, companies, and groups that became successful in China's opening up process. It was a little TOO positive, however, and just when I thought the authors were going to address some of the issues China will need to work on to maintain sustainable growth, they turned it into an opportunity to talk about history between Tibet, Taiwan, and Tiananmen.
China's Megatrends probably won't reach the audiences it's built for, unfortunately.
China's Megatrends probably won't reach the audiences it's built for, unfortunately.
November 10, 2011
vertical-democracy, sounds plausible or just a make-believe?
August 5, 2019
5 stars for being the best CCP propaganda
September 29, 2010
Oh, to be China in 2010, object of the world’s envy, admiration, and fear. Since the economic reforms of the late premier Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, the country has gone from a relatively isolated authoritarian state into a shining triumph of socialist-market economics. At present rates of growth, it will be the world’s largest economy by the middle of this century, overtaking the United States and achieving a GDP above $14 trillion per year — a significant first.
The question of how China became so successful, and what its leadership might do next, is a source of speculation and consternation, particularly in Washington, D.C. In China’s Megatrends: The 8 Pillars of a New Society, John and Doris Naisbitt dissect China’s achievement and provide what they call a “balance” to the “heavily weighted negative commentary” about China in the U.S. media.
Why has China grown so much so quickly? The Naisbitts present an exhaustive list of success stories, but their most novel insight comes from the retelling of a third-century Chinese legend. General Zhuge Liang sat on the banks of the Yangtze River facing the enemy army of Cao Cao on the other side. Rather than attack directly, Zhuge sent over various boats packed with straw. Cao Cao’s archers, perceiving an attack, sent a hail of arrows down onto the boats, whereupon Zhuge retrieved the vessels — and stole his enemy’s ammunition.
Deng employed the same “borrowing arrows” strategy when he invited foreign capital and industry into the country, starting with Volkswagen in 1978. Other large Western firms followed, including Boeing and IBM. The arrangement provided abundant cheap labor for U.S. companies. China secured capital and, more importantly, technological expertise — arrows that the West valued cheaply, it turns out. In 2005 Lenovo, which did subcontracting work for IBM under a different name, became the world’s third-largest computer manufacturer when it acquired IBM’s PC division. The Naisbitts forecast that China will eventually become the world’s largest supplier of electric cars, thanks in part to lessons learned building automobile parts for foreign companies.
In the century ahead, China will be first to reach a number of milestones as it seeks to leverage its growing technological sophistication to meet the needs of its one-billion-plus population. Faced with the challenge of educating an impoverished rural workforce, but free from the influence of teachers’ unions, China may be the first country to succeed in educating most of its population through the Internet. From 2003 to 2007, China spent about $1 billion to implement distance-learning projects in the rural countryside.
China’s leaders have invested heavily in the nation’s technological infrastructure through the establishment of various research and development centers such as the Zhangjiang High-Tech Park or the ZHTP (the park’s researchers received 2,205 patents in 2007 alone). It’s no wonder AI researcher Hugo de Garis, who has lived in China for years, has expressed certainty that China will be the first country to create an artificial general intelligence. The children of the researchers who work at ZHTP can elect to take SAT prep classes at the expense of the government (to secure placement in U.S. universities) or they can go along the Chinese track to continue their education in China. It’s a great education by American standards. It’s hardly typical of what most children in China experience.
How does China reconcile an explosion in private wealth with the tenets of communism? Easily, say the Naisbitts. Prosperity for all remains the Chinese government’s goal. But, in the words of Deng himself, China has “allowed some people and some regions to become prosperous first.” Trickle-down economics is apparently just another arrow to be employed expeditiously. The Chinese people don’t find the apparent contradiction nearly as troubling as do her critics.
Western concerns about the state of human rights behind the Great Wall aren’t shared by the Chinese people, according to the Naisbitts, and the authors are dismissive of Tibetan or Taiwanese sympathizers. From the 1970s to today, the human rights condition in China has been steadily, even remarkably, improving, the authors point out. Minority rights, worker rights, distribution of wealth, open elections, freedom of capital, freedom of speech, and rule of law: China is making “progress” in every one of these areas. But the Chinese people are happy to allow the government to determine the pace of that progress, rather than suffer the lectures of the West, they assert.
Too many in the West hold to a single, self-flattering image of China as an oppressed people in need of rescue, say the Naisbitts. This picture, born of that iconic moment in Tiananmen Square where an unarmed protester confronted a tank, isn’t representative of how the Chinese view themselves or their government today. China’s continued growth depends on access to U.S. consumer markets and technological expertise, for now. But the Chinese people do not see themselves as needing liberation by Washington. They perceive their future as bright. According to a China Daily poll that the authors cite, 76% of Chinese believe the world will be better in five years. Is China Daily a credible source? Don’t worry, journalistic independence is “improving,” too.
Unfortunately, in their pursuit of balance, the Naisbitts did not, it seems, include any personal interviews with any Chinese dissidents. If they sought any such interactions but were blocked by Chinese censors, they don’t remark on it. China’s Megatrends will likely strike American readers as adulatory in the tone it takes to the country’s leadership. For all of its merits, the book too often reads like a marketing pitch from the office of the CCP, intended to extol the country’s success and show the government’s sensitivity to the concerns of the people (note: the level of sensitivity is also improving).
China’s ascent is butting up against major obstacles. But the Naisbitts devote barely a sentence to the lack of transparency in Chinese financial institutions; to wit: “China’s banking system is more or less a monopoly. State-owned banks give loans to large [state-owned enterprises] that are operating at a loss; thus large amounts of nonperforming loans have accumulated.” You may recall, it was large, nonperforming loans sitting on bank balance sheets that nearly plunged the world into a second global depression just two years ago. The Naisbitts don’t explore the size of the Chinese finance bubble and don’t speculate when, if ever, it will pop.
The deteriorating freshwater situation is the larger problem, and the Naisbitts do pay more attention here. China hosts 20% of the world’s population, but the country holds only 7% of its resources. As covered in this magazine, the most water-intensive and highly polluting industries — paper, textiles, processed food production, and agriculture — have migrated to China’s relatively arid north, from which the more economically significant southern portion imports most of its food. The authors forecast that “water shortages in Beijing will become a crisis when its population, as expected, reaches 20 million in 2010, 3 million more than its current resources can support.” The Naisbitts offer examples of China attempting to deal proactively with the water situation. But it remains a daunting problem and an example of the most important first China is likely to achieve: limits to growth.
The obstacles are significant, but China seems poised to handle them dexterously. The country has made a habit of defying expectations. It’s done so for centuries. In 607 CE, the insolent Japanese prince Shotoku referred to the aging empire to Japan’s west as the “land of the setting sun.” China recently eclipsed Germany’s status as the third largest country in terms of GDP and will likely surpass Japan by the end of 2010. It seems the sun also rises.
About the Reviewer
Patrick Tucker is the senior editor of THE FUTURIST and director of communications of the World Future Society. This review was originally published in the May-June 2010 issue
The question of how China became so successful, and what its leadership might do next, is a source of speculation and consternation, particularly in Washington, D.C. In China’s Megatrends: The 8 Pillars of a New Society, John and Doris Naisbitt dissect China’s achievement and provide what they call a “balance” to the “heavily weighted negative commentary” about China in the U.S. media.
Why has China grown so much so quickly? The Naisbitts present an exhaustive list of success stories, but their most novel insight comes from the retelling of a third-century Chinese legend. General Zhuge Liang sat on the banks of the Yangtze River facing the enemy army of Cao Cao on the other side. Rather than attack directly, Zhuge sent over various boats packed with straw. Cao Cao’s archers, perceiving an attack, sent a hail of arrows down onto the boats, whereupon Zhuge retrieved the vessels — and stole his enemy’s ammunition.
Deng employed the same “borrowing arrows” strategy when he invited foreign capital and industry into the country, starting with Volkswagen in 1978. Other large Western firms followed, including Boeing and IBM. The arrangement provided abundant cheap labor for U.S. companies. China secured capital and, more importantly, technological expertise — arrows that the West valued cheaply, it turns out. In 2005 Lenovo, which did subcontracting work for IBM under a different name, became the world’s third-largest computer manufacturer when it acquired IBM’s PC division. The Naisbitts forecast that China will eventually become the world’s largest supplier of electric cars, thanks in part to lessons learned building automobile parts for foreign companies.
In the century ahead, China will be first to reach a number of milestones as it seeks to leverage its growing technological sophistication to meet the needs of its one-billion-plus population. Faced with the challenge of educating an impoverished rural workforce, but free from the influence of teachers’ unions, China may be the first country to succeed in educating most of its population through the Internet. From 2003 to 2007, China spent about $1 billion to implement distance-learning projects in the rural countryside.
China’s leaders have invested heavily in the nation’s technological infrastructure through the establishment of various research and development centers such as the Zhangjiang High-Tech Park or the ZHTP (the park’s researchers received 2,205 patents in 2007 alone). It’s no wonder AI researcher Hugo de Garis, who has lived in China for years, has expressed certainty that China will be the first country to create an artificial general intelligence. The children of the researchers who work at ZHTP can elect to take SAT prep classes at the expense of the government (to secure placement in U.S. universities) or they can go along the Chinese track to continue their education in China. It’s a great education by American standards. It’s hardly typical of what most children in China experience.
How does China reconcile an explosion in private wealth with the tenets of communism? Easily, say the Naisbitts. Prosperity for all remains the Chinese government’s goal. But, in the words of Deng himself, China has “allowed some people and some regions to become prosperous first.” Trickle-down economics is apparently just another arrow to be employed expeditiously. The Chinese people don’t find the apparent contradiction nearly as troubling as do her critics.
Western concerns about the state of human rights behind the Great Wall aren’t shared by the Chinese people, according to the Naisbitts, and the authors are dismissive of Tibetan or Taiwanese sympathizers. From the 1970s to today, the human rights condition in China has been steadily, even remarkably, improving, the authors point out. Minority rights, worker rights, distribution of wealth, open elections, freedom of capital, freedom of speech, and rule of law: China is making “progress” in every one of these areas. But the Chinese people are happy to allow the government to determine the pace of that progress, rather than suffer the lectures of the West, they assert.
Too many in the West hold to a single, self-flattering image of China as an oppressed people in need of rescue, say the Naisbitts. This picture, born of that iconic moment in Tiananmen Square where an unarmed protester confronted a tank, isn’t representative of how the Chinese view themselves or their government today. China’s continued growth depends on access to U.S. consumer markets and technological expertise, for now. But the Chinese people do not see themselves as needing liberation by Washington. They perceive their future as bright. According to a China Daily poll that the authors cite, 76% of Chinese believe the world will be better in five years. Is China Daily a credible source? Don’t worry, journalistic independence is “improving,” too.
Unfortunately, in their pursuit of balance, the Naisbitts did not, it seems, include any personal interviews with any Chinese dissidents. If they sought any such interactions but were blocked by Chinese censors, they don’t remark on it. China’s Megatrends will likely strike American readers as adulatory in the tone it takes to the country’s leadership. For all of its merits, the book too often reads like a marketing pitch from the office of the CCP, intended to extol the country’s success and show the government’s sensitivity to the concerns of the people (note: the level of sensitivity is also improving).
China’s ascent is butting up against major obstacles. But the Naisbitts devote barely a sentence to the lack of transparency in Chinese financial institutions; to wit: “China’s banking system is more or less a monopoly. State-owned banks give loans to large [state-owned enterprises] that are operating at a loss; thus large amounts of nonperforming loans have accumulated.” You may recall, it was large, nonperforming loans sitting on bank balance sheets that nearly plunged the world into a second global depression just two years ago. The Naisbitts don’t explore the size of the Chinese finance bubble and don’t speculate when, if ever, it will pop.
The deteriorating freshwater situation is the larger problem, and the Naisbitts do pay more attention here. China hosts 20% of the world’s population, but the country holds only 7% of its resources. As covered in this magazine, the most water-intensive and highly polluting industries — paper, textiles, processed food production, and agriculture — have migrated to China’s relatively arid north, from which the more economically significant southern portion imports most of its food. The authors forecast that “water shortages in Beijing will become a crisis when its population, as expected, reaches 20 million in 2010, 3 million more than its current resources can support.” The Naisbitts offer examples of China attempting to deal proactively with the water situation. But it remains a daunting problem and an example of the most important first China is likely to achieve: limits to growth.
The obstacles are significant, but China seems poised to handle them dexterously. The country has made a habit of defying expectations. It’s done so for centuries. In 607 CE, the insolent Japanese prince Shotoku referred to the aging empire to Japan’s west as the “land of the setting sun.” China recently eclipsed Germany’s status as the third largest country in terms of GDP and will likely surpass Japan by the end of 2010. It seems the sun also rises.
About the Reviewer
Patrick Tucker is the senior editor of THE FUTURIST and director of communications of the World Future Society. This review was originally published in the May-June 2010 issue
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
November 6, 2021
While I found China's Megatrends to be insightful and full of new facts, it seems clear that the authors view China through rose-coloured glasses. Perhaps they would be the first to admit that (and they do hint at that in the closing chapters) but it certainly takes away some credibility in terms of being an 'objective' read. That said, I did find it somewhat refreshing to read a more positive spin on China. Published in 2009, it was also interesting to see how many western 'concerns' about China remain unchanged today - internet control, Taiwan, communism, free press, etc. Overall, I'm not sure I would recommend it per se, but it was a new perspective and I'm glad I read it.
May 25, 2010
Positive viewpoint on how far China has travelled
Futurist John Naisbitt was never one for understatement, and that holds true with this sweeping book on China. His early works broke ground and brought provocative ideas to light. This book, written with his wife, Doris Naisbitt, is less revolutionary. With warm enthusiasm, the authors present a comprehensive, generous compilation of eight major forces shaping China. They explain China’s politics simply and straightforwardly, with a generous dose of quotes from former leader Deng Xiaoping and others. The Naisbitts’ prose style and their slogans or sayings seem to lilt with a slightly Chinese cadence and, sometimes, even sentence structure. The book is not directed at cognoscenti who seek academic or deep coverage of China’s complexities, contradictions and challenges. Instead, getAbstract finds that it is a very accessible look at how China is evolving today, written for an interested but not expert general audience and slightly sugared with an accent on the positive. The authors praise China’s leaders – and even laud the fact that most leaders aren’t elected – and believe that criticism of China is based on misunderstandings that will clear up as the eight forces they list come to fruition over time.
Futurist John Naisbitt was never one for understatement, and that holds true with this sweeping book on China. His early works broke ground and brought provocative ideas to light. This book, written with his wife, Doris Naisbitt, is less revolutionary. With warm enthusiasm, the authors present a comprehensive, generous compilation of eight major forces shaping China. They explain China’s politics simply and straightforwardly, with a generous dose of quotes from former leader Deng Xiaoping and others. The Naisbitts’ prose style and their slogans or sayings seem to lilt with a slightly Chinese cadence and, sometimes, even sentence structure. The book is not directed at cognoscenti who seek academic or deep coverage of China’s complexities, contradictions and challenges. Instead, getAbstract finds that it is a very accessible look at how China is evolving today, written for an interested but not expert general audience and slightly sugared with an accent on the positive. The authors praise China’s leaders – and even laud the fact that most leaders aren’t elected – and believe that criticism of China is based on misunderstandings that will clear up as the eight forces they list come to fruition over time.
December 23, 2012
Facts and no framing, inside out view, 8 pillars are liberate people and build on trust, top down and bottom up vertical democracy, frame forrest let trees grow, crossing river by feeling stones, artistic and intellectuals, joining the world, freedom and fairness, innovation. Promotional for sure, the arrows to the boat story, singular party is less confrontational and less competitive and innovative (friction can refine and perfect). Self confidence for effective self assessment. Character is revealed in stress. The west lectures (and innovates) and china learns. 18 farmers change from communal.
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February 11, 2011Very interesting learning about the up and coming world power. I keep thinking John Nesbitt seems to be leaving out much criticism and speaks only very favorably, no one does it right all the time. What does this mean about what he is saying?
There is lots of good information about the modern China, but I was disappointed in the lack of facts.
You should read this because all Americans need to know more about China, Megatrends is only a beginning. I hope to get to read a book mentioned several times in Megatrends, Think Like Chinese.
There is lots of good information about the modern China, but I was disappointed in the lack of facts.
You should read this because all Americans need to know more about China, Megatrends is only a beginning. I hope to get to read a book mentioned several times in Megatrends, Think Like Chinese.
July 12, 2010
Interesting observations on the social and political changes in China today, but not groundbreaking as his Megatrends was. Nether academic nor fluffy, the book is just a bit too "friendly" to the Chinese political machine, continually trying to justify it. Naisbitt and his wife/coauthor, have, however identified what has chaged China into the superpower that it's becomming.
A good read if you're into Chinese politics and economics.
A good read if you're into Chinese politics and economics.
January 21, 2015
Apa yang muncul di benak Anda ketika mendengar "Cina"? Panda? Film terbaru dari novel Asma Nadia? Atau komunis? Sebelum membaca buku ini, kepala saya sempat terjangkit beberapa dogma negatif tentang Cina karena paradigma saya adalah dari luar yang melihat ke Cina. Tapi buku ini mampu memperlihatkan bagaimana kah Cina jika dilihat dari dalam Cina itu sendiri. Selamat menyeimbangkan opini. High recommended one! :)
June 13, 2012
A very interesting book by John Naisbitt on China. This book provides similar insights into China and the various drivers that will impact it's future as the original Megatrends book about America written in the 70's.
March 28, 2011
Must read
John grew up in the US
Lived in Europe and decided to move to China
That explains more than words are able to.
John grew up in the US
Lived in Europe and decided to move to China
That explains more than words are able to.
May 30, 2011
Mostly echoing the Chinese government, which is no surprise considering author's close relationship with it and his stake in China.
December 21, 2015
This is nothing more than Communist propaganda. The sycophancy and deliberate ignorance is embarrassing.
November 16, 2013
748 - 2013
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