The countdown to a disaster, a war of choice, this book details the debates, decisions and planning at the highest levels that led up to the American invasion of Iraq in 2002. Woodward writes how war plans were developed, congressional resolutions were passed, and international support was courted. He narrates cabinet debates, major speeches, discussions with allies, and the arguments among the main players at the relevant cabinet meetings. He adequately describes the sense of panic in the administration after 9/11 and the anthrax attacks, when they didn't know what was coming next. While the book was more about process than thoughts, I gained some insight into why the United States invaded Iraq, its first and greatest foreign policy mistake of the 21st Century so far.
Woodward lists the main reasons that influenced the decision-makers: unfinished business from the first Gulf War, Iraqi sanctions busting, supposed weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, supposed links between the Iraqi regime and terrorists, a desire to spread democracy, and the safety of Israel and other American allies in the region. He also makes clear that the most hawkish senior official was Vice President Dick Cheney, but President Bush also was very hawkish. Other important cabinet members, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice seemed to support the war because the President wanted a war. Whatever they thought privately, they never expressed their opinion to the President. They drove events because they were asked to. As far as Rumsfeld goes, this surprised me. I thought he was a major force behind the war, but it seems that Bush never asked Rumsfeld what he thought about the invasion.
Bush's main motives seemed to be that he thought, in a post 9/11 world, that WMD-possessing, terrorist-supporting, dictator gangster Saddam Hussein was too dangerous to be left in charge of Iraq. Through regime change, America would remake Iraq, the Middle East, and perhaps the world for democracy. "I will seize the opportunity to achieve big goals." But Cheney really pushed Bush. In fact, Cheney pushed a hard line in public before the President had a chance to publicly state administration policy. He wanted to preempt Secretary of State Colin Powell, ex officials like Brett Scowcroft, and others who were more cautious and wanted to build a coalition to disarm Iraq through the United Nations. I never really understood what motivated Cheney. Revenge? Show America’s power after the catastrophe of 9/11? I don’t know.
This book was released in 2004, before Mearsheimer and Walt’s “The Israeli Lobby and American Foreign Policy,” in which the thesis is that Israel Lobby is the tail that wags the American dog, The neoconservatives, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz and the Chief of Staff to the Vice President Scooter Libby, were in the book and acknowledged as the chief hawks who were making the case for the war. Woodward called Wolfowitz the “intellectual godfather” of the war; however, I am not so sure that they were as influential on the President as some have claimed. There is no direct evidence in this book. Wolfowitz was Cheney’s assistant. He provided arguments for Cheney, but it is not evident that Cheney had not already reached those conclusions. Libby was Rumsfeld’s assistant. This book shows Rumsfeld as less of a hawk than I previously believed. Assistants don’t make policy, principals do.
The business of United Nations weapons inspectors going into Iraq looking for WMD was a very revealed the attitude of the major players. Powell advocated for weapons inspections and United Nations resolutions in the hope that he could avoid war. Perhaps the American aim of disarming Iraq could be achieved peacefully. Bush, however, had no faith that the weapons inspectors would bear fruit, but he supported them anyway. Why? Because he believed that Hussein would fail the weapons inspection test and then the USA would have a pretext for war. Or, even better, the weapons inspections could be used as part of a pressure campaign on the Iraqi regime that, together with the American military buildup at his border, might lead Hussein to leave the country for asylum in a third country. This shows the differing positions of Powell and Bush. Powell wanted Iraq disarmed, Bush would only be satisfied with regime change. Cheney was adamantly opposed to the United Nations process from the beginning. He thought the Americans would get bogged down in arguments in the Security Council and General Assembly that would limit their freedom of action and take too much time. The fact that the United Nations option was chosen at first shows that Cheney would defer to Bush’s decisions. In the end, though, when the United Nations route failed, Bush went along with Cheney.
Like all of Woodward’s books, this is impeccably sourced. He interviewed Bush, Rumsfeld, Powell, and dozens of other officials. He had access to secret documents. Woodward really understands the people and process in Washington. I have a great deal of confidence that what Woodward said happened actually happened in that way. On the other hand, there have been many books published on this topic, I have not read most of them, and my mind could be changed by new information. Plus, like Woodward’s other books, this was published rather quickly after the events and so the long-term consequences of what happened here are not included. The nature of the disaster, however, was becoming clear.
The war was a huge disaster. Although the CIA Director George Tenet had claimed that the presence of weapons of mass destruction was a “slam dunk”, none were ever found. The connection between Al Qaeda and the Iraqi regime was a made up fairy tale. Tens of thousands of American lives, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives, billions of dollars and the attention of the most powerful country in the world was diverted from what matters most: the economy, Al Qaeda in Iraq, Mosul, ethnic cleansing, and unrest spread out from the power vacuum in Iraq to other parts of the Middle East. The Americans took their eyes off Afghanistan so that too became a failure. Iranian influence spread like a cancer throughout the region. America’s reputation was in tatters in much of the world. More than twenty years later, Iraq is still unstable and American troops are still there.
When the late Chinese Premiere Zhou Enlai was asked what he thought about the French Revolution, he famously replied. “It’s too early to tell.” By that standard, we still don’t know what the long-term results of America’s invasion were. But here is another one. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Bush’s intentions might have been better in 2002 than Putin’s in 2022, but the action was very similar. A great power invades a country to remove a regime and bend it to its will. France, Germany, Canada and other of America’s allies who were convinced it was wrong were right.