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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

4.13  ·  Rating details ·  1,009 ratings  ·  23 reviews
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, soc ...more
Paperback, 544 pages
Published April 28th 1982 by Cambridge University Press
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Andrew Hunt
Jul 27, 2013 rated it it was amazing
Recommends it for: Rationalists
Recommended to Andrew by: Eliezer Yudkowsky
Shelves: social-science
I read this book because it and Gödel, Escher, Bach were mentioned in the same breath in Eliezer Yudkowsky's incomparable Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. With an endorsement like that, how could I resist at least taking a look?

My development as a scientist and rationalist has been intertwined in some unlikely ways with the Harry Potter phenomenon. I first encountered game theory about eight years ago in a book called The Science of Harry Potter. Expounding the famous Prisoner's Dile
Nick Klagge
Oct 13, 2014 rated it liked it
Shelves: economics
This book is a collection of academic papers on behavioral economics. It was first published in 1982, so a reader today should approach it as a presentation of the "first wave" of this field of research, which became much more well-known over the following 30 years.

For me, the book was very hit-and-miss. Some of the papers were very engaging; others, I barely got through without falling asleep. It shouldn't be a surprise that the ones by Kahneman and Tversky are generally among the most interest
Takuro Ishikawa
Jul 16, 2010 rated it it was amazing
This book offers a collection of papers on decision science, the study (and improvement) of human decision making. These papers are particularly useful to all business analytics professionals who want or need to evangelize about the need for analytics.

Altogether, the articles describe when intuitive decision fails, and why. More importantly, they make a case for analytics and provide ideas on how it can improve decision making.
Jul 05, 2009 rated it liked it
Very academic, peer reviewed treatment of social psychology married to economic. It’s hard to cut through much of the nuts and bolts, and I didn’t try too hard. I skimmed through the cryptic parts, detailed proofs, equations, etc. But the general concepts are invaluable. It’s really intended as a collection of journal articles for post-graduates in social psychology and behavioral economics. Five-star revelations, but two-star presentation from a layman’s perspective. Kahneman won the Nobel Priz ...more
Jan 15, 2018 rated it liked it
Shelves: 2018, science
We usually think of bias in the context of underlying motivations or interests, particularly in the political realm. The underlying premise of this book is that there are much more fundamental biases in human judgments. Humans aren't perfectly logical creatures. Even when we have perfectly good information, and we are free from motivational biases, we still make poor decisions.

I picked up this book after there was a few passing references to it in "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality." I
Aug 24, 2019 rated it it was amazing
Kalle Nordenstorm
May 28, 2017 rated it liked it
Almost everything is also in Thinking Fast and Slow.

If you do not like TFaS, reading this will give you the same info.
Jun 05, 2017 rated it really liked it
Shelves: cognition, nonfiction
If, like me, you're a layperson interested in decision-making, read Thinking, Fast and Slow, where Dr. Kahneman crystallizes much of what is in this book into something far more accessible. The book is full of interesting data, but was obviously written for a much more technical audience.
Demma Be
Dec 29, 2017 rated it it was amazing
Such a novel research work, love it! Kahneman also put some of those experiment results into his major book - "thinking fast and slow"
Sabrina Birowo
Apr 04, 2018 rated it really liked it
Thank you strategy class for providing me with thought-provoking list of books (this included)
Jeff Cliff
Mar 12, 2017 rated it really liked it
While I agree with Sam that there's good stuff in here, little needles in a bed of hay; and think that this academic work could easily have been compressed into a work half its size - it was also written in the 80's, and things *were* different back then. I do have some level of memory of the decade this was written in and have perhaps a greater appreciation for the difficulty in even getting as far as this book does.


This book inspired a couple of blog posts. In it I found:

* A new bias fo
Jan 25, 2010 rated it really liked it
Recommended to Bria by: Less Wrong
This book was not very useful in helping me become more comfortable in everyday human situations. I already fall for the literal meaning of people's words any time I'm not concentrating very hard on not being a pedant, particularly when someone says they are "99%" or "100% certain" of something. Dwelling on the gap between colloquial meanings of numbers and probabilities and their technical definitions for several weeks did not push me toward being any more tolerable of a human companion. If you ...more
Jul 05, 2016 rated it really liked it
Great technical read for anybody starting in psychology. Although the book is relatively old, it introduces topics studied today at university courses on cognitive psychology and decision making. In hindsight, one is tempted to see some of the presented results and conclusions as more-or-less intuitive and mostly common knowledge by now, but this collection of articles organizes and discusses the available information in an accessible and methodical manner that facilitates deeper understanding. ...more
Jul 06, 2012 rated it really liked it

Very insightful book. It shows deviations from mathematical thinking and leans towards descriptive research. It is self contained and accessible. Recommended to people who want a strong grasp on decision sciences.
Dave Peticolas
May 10, 2014 rated it liked it

A collection of research papers investigating the ways the human mind estimates probability. A lot of intriguing material, but also lots of dry writing. I must confess, I did a lot of skimming.

Doron Yam
Jul 03, 2011 rated it liked it
another one for my MBA. at least it was better then the others...
Sam Jaques
Mar 24, 2012 rated it it was ok
Really dry, and I was worried that most of the data is now outdated. Some of it was really interesting, and some might even be useful, but it was a heck of a slog just for those bits.
Apr 13, 2010 marked it as to-read
Shelves: psychology
Danny Kahneman wrote a book? Count me in.
Joan Baker
Dec 17, 2016 rated it liked it
Nothing in life is as important as you think.
Apr 02, 2011 rated it liked it
Não entendo porque posterguei a leitura deste livro por tanto tempo. Minha melhor dos últimos 5 anos.
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From Wikipedia:

Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן‎ (born 5 March 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, notable for his work on behavioral finance and hedonic psychology.

With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, S

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