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How to Predict the Unpredictable: The Art of Outsmarting Almost Everyone
We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be.
In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors.
Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors.
Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
304 pages, Paperback
First published April 9, 2014
53 people are currently reading
719 people want to read
About the author
William Poundstone
54 books360 followersWilliam Poundstone is the author of more than ten non-fiction books, including 'Fortune's Formula', which was the Amazon Editors' Pick for #1 non-fiction book of 2005. Poundstone has written for The New York Times, Psychology Today, Esquire, Harpers, The Economist, and Harvard Business Review. He has appeared on the Today Show, The David Letterman Show and hundreds of radio talk-shows throughout the world. Poundstone studied physics at MIT and many of his ideas concern the social and financial impact of scientific ideas. His books have sold over half a million copies worldwide.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 31 reviews
October 27, 2014
If you go by the title alone, the book falls short of its promise. Read through all of it and you will be nowhere closer to predicting what is actually unpredictable, be it the next turn on the roulette wheel or the -actual quotation of the price of gold tomorrow. A better title, perhaps, would have "How to predict the much-more-predictable-than-you-think behaviour of people trying to act random". Much less seductive, but much more to the point. The book's central idea is, in fact, that true randomness rarely looks like what we imagine random to be and, thus, when trying to act randomly, most people are in fact quite predictable. A very useful piece of information for mentalists, for instance.
Overall, not the most passionate of readings, but some bits and pieces were quite enlightening to see. And it definitely changed my perspective on randomness.
Overall, not the most passionate of readings, but some bits and pieces were quite enlightening to see. And it definitely changed my perspective on randomness.
October 13, 2014
There's a certain kind of maths title that delights. It's not the kind of pure maths you'd find in an Ian Stewart book, where maths is an intricate, latticework puzzle like a net of spun sugar that need have no connection to the real world. No, this is maths as impure and dirty as it gets. It sneaks up behind us and takes us by surprise, because this is the maths at the interface with psychology - maths that often challenges our beliefs and understanding of the world. It can be both deeply satisfying and quite interesting in a QI fashion, all at the same time.
I suppose the classic of this field is Freakonomics, though I would also recommend The Tiger that Isn't and (in a modest way), my own Dice World. What William Poundstone does with great aplomb here is to unpick our dubious relationship with randomness. In the first half of the book he points out how we are particularly poor envisaging randomness, and how, as a result, if you understand how people get it wrong, it's possible to get an unexpected edge in everything from rock - paper - scissors to multiple choice questions. This all starts with a lovely description of the 'outguessing machine' an incredibly simple device that nonetheless is generally capable at beating humans at a guessing game.
The second part of the book is rather more tenuously linked by the idea of a 'hot hand' - the sport (and specifically basketball) delusion that people who are on a winning streak are more likely to succeed again - coupled with the gamblers' fallacy, which says that, for instance, after a run of black on a roulette wheel, red is more likely to come up. As Poundstone points out, these two apparently contradictory fallacies are actually linked, as the first is only applied in something involving human skill, while the second is reserved for mechanical outcomes. He shows how an understanding of these can help with football betting, property prices and the stock market.
I loved the book until well over half way through. Even in the apparently straightforward answer to 'how to outguess the lottery', Poundstone goes further than the traditional 'by using random selections, rather than human choice.' He isn't going over the boundary to say you can predict the outcome - that really is unpredictable - but rather how to maximise your winnings if you do win. Towards the end of the book, though the content got too specialist for me. There was too much on sports betting, which I have no interest in, and then on ways to beat the stock market, a section which is far too long and technically detailed for the general reader. It's a real shame that this section is used to end the book as it means the whole thing ends on quite a downer.
Don't get me wrong - the concept of beating the stock market is mind-boggling, as the market itself is the kind of chaotic system that isn't possible to forecast. But Poundstone shows how some measures, dependent on the inability of traders to overcome our ability to read patterns into randomness that isn't there, give a long term guidance on action. And this would have been great if covered in five pages. But as the 36 page finale of the book it's a disappointment.
So this is mostly a great book - do read it and be prepared to be delighted - but unless you are a sports better or play the markets be prepared for a little disappointment towards the end.
I suppose the classic of this field is Freakonomics, though I would also recommend The Tiger that Isn't and (in a modest way), my own Dice World. What William Poundstone does with great aplomb here is to unpick our dubious relationship with randomness. In the first half of the book he points out how we are particularly poor envisaging randomness, and how, as a result, if you understand how people get it wrong, it's possible to get an unexpected edge in everything from rock - paper - scissors to multiple choice questions. This all starts with a lovely description of the 'outguessing machine' an incredibly simple device that nonetheless is generally capable at beating humans at a guessing game.
The second part of the book is rather more tenuously linked by the idea of a 'hot hand' - the sport (and specifically basketball) delusion that people who are on a winning streak are more likely to succeed again - coupled with the gamblers' fallacy, which says that, for instance, after a run of black on a roulette wheel, red is more likely to come up. As Poundstone points out, these two apparently contradictory fallacies are actually linked, as the first is only applied in something involving human skill, while the second is reserved for mechanical outcomes. He shows how an understanding of these can help with football betting, property prices and the stock market.
I loved the book until well over half way through. Even in the apparently straightforward answer to 'how to outguess the lottery', Poundstone goes further than the traditional 'by using random selections, rather than human choice.' He isn't going over the boundary to say you can predict the outcome - that really is unpredictable - but rather how to maximise your winnings if you do win. Towards the end of the book, though the content got too specialist for me. There was too much on sports betting, which I have no interest in, and then on ways to beat the stock market, a section which is far too long and technically detailed for the general reader. It's a real shame that this section is used to end the book as it means the whole thing ends on quite a downer.
Don't get me wrong - the concept of beating the stock market is mind-boggling, as the market itself is the kind of chaotic system that isn't possible to forecast. But Poundstone shows how some measures, dependent on the inability of traders to overcome our ability to read patterns into randomness that isn't there, give a long term guidance on action. And this would have been great if covered in five pages. But as the 36 page finale of the book it's a disappointment.
So this is mostly a great book - do read it and be prepared to be delighted - but unless you are a sports better or play the markets be prepared for a little disappointment towards the end.
February 15, 2020
PopThe first thing I'll say is that this book won't actually tell you how to predict the unpredictable. Because literally taken, that would take supernatural powers. What it does do is give illuminating insights from psychology and behavioural economics. And how to apply these to stay ahead of a crowd or market.
One thing this book does fantastically well is to take lots of knowledge and offer down and dirty rules of thumb, for the average layman or consumer. At the end of each chapter, he gives us a 'Recap' of the main points and some of the rules of thumb we can apply. I wouldn't want to dissuade anyone from reading the rest of the book - there's tons of supporting context and history. But purely in terms of getting the most value (which let's face it, that's exactly what I wanted from my free copy on loan from the library), these end of chapter points are fantastic. You could, in fact, only read the first paragraph or two and then the end recap to do that. Have got to say, that was helpful of the author/editor to do that.
Gilovich -
"So you play basketball, right? Have you ever had the hot hand?
Fan: "Yes!"
"Isn't it great when you have that?"
"Oh, absolutely, it feels like you can do no wrong. The basket seems big!"
"At the same time that it's thrilling, do you find there's this fear or anxiety.... that creeps up the back of your spine into your skull? You think, this is so wonderful, I don't want it to come to an end?"
"Oh yeah, I know what you mean!"
"It's particularly anxiety-producing because you know it could come or go at any moment. And you can't predict when that's going to happen."
"Yeah!"
Gilovich concludes -
"Well, that's what we're saying".
Early on in the book, we learn that studies have proven that humans are just not very good at choosing randomly. Even when trying to create a 'strong password' for example, we do so in predictable ways, using the same heuristics others do to generate our uncrackable codes.
Patterns can be exploited by learning algorithms - check this out for a powerful example if you have time - https://www.afiniti.com/corporate/roc....
The more games you play / data for the algorithm, the more you'll lose. If it were truly random, you'd only win 50% of the games anyway. And this piece of code is crunching numbers in a way a tiny human brain simply cannot.
My understanding was that extra value can be gained from betting against the 'hot hand'. I.e. Betting on another win when someone or some team is on a 'winning streak' you can get a better share of the available value by betting the other way. This is because the crowd is making a meaningful pattern out of the results in hindsight. Meaningful, but not predictive.
Let's take, for example, a lottery machine. Which is 'random ' enough. Sure there are forces at work like gravity and momentum, that dictate the outcome, but one cannot perceive them in that way - we are not Laplace's Demon.
As a thought experiment, let's say out of the numbers 1 - 75 in this lottery, no one ever picks the combination 1,2,3,4,5,6. Except on this occasion when we will pay for our ticket and choose this ascending combination of digits (the combination doesn't actually matter though).
I like this example because it's obvious when you think about it: any combo of 1 to 6 is equally likely as any of the other available 201,359,550 combinations. But most wouldn't pick it, because it doesn't 'feel' likely, not what we expect a random string of lottery numbers to look like. This feeling is deeply seated in human cognition and its irrational.
Back our lotto - We're not increasing our chances of selecting the right numbers by picking a set of numbers no one else is. But we are increasing our share of value in the prize pool because we won't have to share our winnings if our numbers come up. So, in a tangible way, our lotto ticket is worth more than the tens of thousands of others who are selecting numbers differently but paid the same entry fee.
This is one of my own simplified points, that I picked (at random?) to write about because once you've seen and understood the hot hand, you will see it everywhere.
There are other points in this book, which I encourage you to read if you are into your behavioural economics.
I will end this review with a completely random bitmap image. From Wikipedia.
One thing this book does fantastically well is to take lots of knowledge and offer down and dirty rules of thumb, for the average layman or consumer. At the end of each chapter, he gives us a 'Recap' of the main points and some of the rules of thumb we can apply. I wouldn't want to dissuade anyone from reading the rest of the book - there's tons of supporting context and history. But purely in terms of getting the most value (which let's face it, that's exactly what I wanted from my free copy on loan from the library), these end of chapter points are fantastic. You could, in fact, only read the first paragraph or two and then the end recap to do that. Have got to say, that was helpful of the author/editor to do that.
Gilovich -
"So you play basketball, right? Have you ever had the hot hand?
Fan: "Yes!"
"Isn't it great when you have that?"
"Oh, absolutely, it feels like you can do no wrong. The basket seems big!"
"At the same time that it's thrilling, do you find there's this fear or anxiety.... that creeps up the back of your spine into your skull? You think, this is so wonderful, I don't want it to come to an end?"
"Oh yeah, I know what you mean!"
"It's particularly anxiety-producing because you know it could come or go at any moment. And you can't predict when that's going to happen."
"Yeah!"
Gilovich concludes -
"Well, that's what we're saying".
Early on in the book, we learn that studies have proven that humans are just not very good at choosing randomly. Even when trying to create a 'strong password' for example, we do so in predictable ways, using the same heuristics others do to generate our uncrackable codes.
Patterns can be exploited by learning algorithms - check this out for a powerful example if you have time - https://www.afiniti.com/corporate/roc....
The more games you play / data for the algorithm, the more you'll lose. If it were truly random, you'd only win 50% of the games anyway. And this piece of code is crunching numbers in a way a tiny human brain simply cannot.
My understanding was that extra value can be gained from betting against the 'hot hand'. I.e. Betting on another win when someone or some team is on a 'winning streak' you can get a better share of the available value by betting the other way. This is because the crowd is making a meaningful pattern out of the results in hindsight. Meaningful, but not predictive.
Let's take, for example, a lottery machine. Which is 'random ' enough. Sure there are forces at work like gravity and momentum, that dictate the outcome, but one cannot perceive them in that way - we are not Laplace's Demon.
As a thought experiment, let's say out of the numbers 1 - 75 in this lottery, no one ever picks the combination 1,2,3,4,5,6. Except on this occasion when we will pay for our ticket and choose this ascending combination of digits (the combination doesn't actually matter though).
I like this example because it's obvious when you think about it: any combo of 1 to 6 is equally likely as any of the other available 201,359,550 combinations. But most wouldn't pick it, because it doesn't 'feel' likely, not what we expect a random string of lottery numbers to look like. This feeling is deeply seated in human cognition and its irrational.
Back our lotto - We're not increasing our chances of selecting the right numbers by picking a set of numbers no one else is. But we are increasing our share of value in the prize pool because we won't have to share our winnings if our numbers come up. So, in a tangible way, our lotto ticket is worth more than the tens of thousands of others who are selecting numbers differently but paid the same entry fee.
This is one of my own simplified points, that I picked (at random?) to write about because once you've seen and understood the hot hand, you will see it everywhere.
There are other points in this book, which I encourage you to read if you are into your behavioural economics.
I will end this review with a completely random bitmap image. From Wikipedia.
December 31, 2017
The name of the book and of a lot of its chapters do not do justice to the content. They make it appear as a recipe book about how to win against the odds. It is not. At least the most interesting parts of it. There is a lot of science and math history in, and some really valuable insights on the psychology of randomness. I not only do not regret having read it. I think I found a couple of really beneficial ideas in it.
April 13, 2020
The title is a "hardsell" while the book itself does not dive too deep in the technical aspect, more like a series of stories and analysis on statistics. Not what I expected but still a very good read.
March 15, 2018
This was a fascinating book for a numbers tragic like me. Lots of interesting theories about predicting card games, sports results, the stock market and even rock-paper-scissors.
December 7, 2019
There's some interesting information in these pages 😁
.
But It's been so long since I've read it. So, I'm not going to post a full review on it.
.
(https://aarifbillah.com/)
.
But It's been so long since I've read it. So, I'm not going to post a full review on it.
.
(https://aarifbillah.com/)
December 24, 2018
Interesting ideas of human behaviour in almost every chapter but every idea is presented only as anecdotes or quick summary. The biggest merit of the book is that it reminds us about the law of large numbers. Proper analysis may give an edge but the edge is not that big: it means that you can outguess maybe 60 times out of 100 and be successful.
First part of the book covers information theory and all wonky machines they came up with at the Bell Labs:
First part of the book covers information theory and all wonky machines they came up with at the Bell Labs:
Shannon's and Hagelbarger's devices were arguably the first to use "cookies" - archives of past human choices that are employed to predict future choices.
One problem with sports betting systems is that anyone who looks hard enough for a pattern tends to find one. It might be that the Denver Broncos always won on odd-numbered days in February when playing teams named after animals. Analytics is good at finding such patterns. It's not so good at saying whther you should believe in them.
April 1, 2020
همین ترجمه از کتاب رو خوندم که در تصویر هست.
علیرغم موضوع جذاب و گیرا و شگفتآور کتاب، ترجمه به شدت ضعیف بود طوری که گاهی وقتا جملات متوالی هیچ ارتباط معنایی با هم ایجاد نمیکردن و گاهی مفهوم یه تک جمله هم قابل فهم نبود!
اما مضمون کتاب به شدت جذابه برای کسانی که علاقمند به رفتار انسان، هوش مصنوعی، یادگیری ماشین و آمار هستن.
نکتهی شوکه کنندهای که در ابتدای کتاب باهاش مواجه میشیم اینه که بر خلاف باور خودمون ما هرگز توانایی ایجاد محتوای تصادفی مثل اعداد یا حروف تصادفی رو نداریم. و بر اساس یک الگوی ذهنی که ممکنه خودمون ازش آگاه نباشیم این کار رو میکنیم.
به همین خاطر الگوریتمهای زیادی برای پیشبینی چیزهایی که مربوط به رفتار انسانها هستن شکل گرفته. از پیشبینی حرکت بعدی در بازی سنگ کاغذ قیچی با شرط شستن ظرفا توسط بازنده، تا پیشبینی بازارهای سرمایه و دیتاهای کلان!
کتابیه که بسیار ارزشمنده فقط توصیهام اینه که یا ترجمه���ی بهتری ازش پیدا کنید. یا به زبان اصلی مطالعه کنید.
علیرغم موضوع جذاب و گیرا و شگفتآور کتاب، ترجمه به شدت ضعیف بود طوری که گاهی وقتا جملات متوالی هیچ ارتباط معنایی با هم ایجاد نمیکردن و گاهی مفهوم یه تک جمله هم قابل فهم نبود!
اما مضمون کتاب به شدت جذابه برای کسانی که علاقمند به رفتار انسان، هوش مصنوعی، یادگیری ماشین و آمار هستن.
نکتهی شوکه کنندهای که در ابتدای کتاب باهاش مواجه میشیم اینه که بر خلاف باور خودمون ما هرگز توانایی ایجاد محتوای تصادفی مثل اعداد یا حروف تصادفی رو نداریم. و بر اساس یک الگوی ذهنی که ممکنه خودمون ازش آگاه نباشیم این کار رو میکنیم.
به همین خاطر الگوریتمهای زیادی برای پیشبینی چیزهایی که مربوط به رفتار انسانها هستن شکل گرفته. از پیشبینی حرکت بعدی در بازی سنگ کاغذ قیچی با شرط شستن ظرفا توسط بازنده، تا پیشبینی بازارهای سرمایه و دیتاهای کلان!
کتابیه که بسیار ارزشمنده فقط توصیهام اینه که یا ترجمه���ی بهتری ازش پیدا کنید. یا به زبان اصلی مطالعه کنید.
November 14, 2020
An interesting read that combines phycology with statistics and probability. William explains humans are not original creatures and will often do what everyone else does (the average), so it's easy to outguess someone especially if they have been primed (given hints or specific ideas beforehand). For example, people will often use patterns or the same numbers over and over again even when they are trying to be random.
William gives a number of examples of how you can outguess: peoples password, card games, multiple-choice questions, retail prices, property price and the stock exchange. Highlighting that humans behave predictability in a random world.
William gives a number of examples of how you can outguess: peoples password, card games, multiple-choice questions, retail prices, property price and the stock exchange. Highlighting that humans behave predictability in a random world.
February 1, 2020
In the era of big data, this book is an eye-opener to understand how predictable humans are. It shows some of the basic mathematical patterns and methods that support today's digital data analytics that can either help humanity but also make you understand better the dangerous part.
Not a five star as some chapters are a bit long to read, but as the chapters are structured in topics that you can either dig in or skip.
Not a five star as some chapters are a bit long to read, but as the chapters are structured in topics that you can either dig in or skip.
October 15, 2021
I enjoyed reading this book, especially the part about Shannon's outguessing machine. It's in a way quite funny that what we think is random, is usually not random, but what is random we usually think it is not random.
I did find it becoming a bit repetitive (or predictable, as you may like) after a while. After reading 2 examples of the same fallacy, you could easily skip the 3rd example, as you already knew where Poundstone was going to.
I did find it becoming a bit repetitive (or predictable, as you may like) after a while. After reading 2 examples of the same fallacy, you could easily skip the 3rd example, as you already knew where Poundstone was going to.
Read
April 29, 2016Excellent. You don't need to be a mathematician to understand this book.
July 30, 2018
Some nice examples of (lack of) randomness, but the book doesn’t offer anything special especially for people who are well-informed on the subject.
Would be a nice read for light readers.
Would be a nice read for light readers.
January 17, 2022
A rollercoaster ride, as in it has some entertaining/interesting/useful peaks that are usually followed by either swathes of the same applied to a different situation.
After a few examples of how bad humans are at faking randomness, I didn't feel we needed ten more.
There are good sections where what you learned earlier is applied and connected to something real world that could really benefit you. It just felt like a really long journey to get there usually. The final section on the stock market started well but turned into a PhD thesis or something only a broker could understand.
Heavy going in parts but I do think I learned some things.
After a few examples of how bad humans are at faking randomness, I didn't feel we needed ten more.
There are good sections where what you learned earlier is applied and connected to something real world that could really benefit you. It just felt like a really long journey to get there usually. The final section on the stock market started well but turned into a PhD thesis or something only a broker could understand.
Heavy going in parts but I do think I learned some things.
December 14, 2023
An interesting read but not mind-blowing. If you enjoyed Freakonimcs you’ll probably like this. The main idea is this: what seems random on the surface isn’t really, and the author tells you why. All the chapters revolve around that idea, which is actually nice in the sense that you get myriad perspectives and that helps your understanding. It’s not that great in the sense that it feels like a lot of repeating the same idea across what many would consider mundane things.
August 26, 2019
There aren't enough important decisions made by paper scissor rock for you to actually achieve what the title suggests, but it was an easy, interesting read. I think a lot of research went into this book.
November 29, 2020
This book was set to be a 5* from me until the last chapter, I feel the treatment of outguessing the stock market was a bit shallow and didn’t gel with the pace and theme of the rest of the book as well, also it tended to repeat itself a bit much in this chapter
January 18, 2018
Decent quick read. Not the most accurate title for the content, but some interesting examinations of randomness vs human perception of randomness.
June 25, 2019
Good book, if you like a lot of numbers. I don't.
It was interesting nonetheless, but I still can't beat anyone at Paper, scissors, stone (thus losing a star).
It was interesting nonetheless, but I still can't beat anyone at Paper, scissors, stone (thus losing a star).
November 9, 2019
The book is very technology prone and really interesting. I like the way unpredictability unfold and how we can see the future
May 12, 2020
Can't say actually, It was my first and the experience was worst
June 29, 2024
More limited in scope than the title suggests, but well written and easy to digest.
July 28, 2024
This book is the exact same book as “Rock Breaks Scissors”.
November 9, 2014
The title is truly misleading. The book in no way predicts any random events or attempts to do that. To give you an example, the book confirms that the lottery numbers are completely random but then goes on to tell you the numbers that people choose the least amount of times, and if you play these numbers, your odds, if you win, are in your favour of not sharing your winnings with other lottery players (as less people are inclined to use the give numbers).
Not how does that predict the unpredictable?
Not how does that predict the unpredictable?
April 8, 2015
Readable but average, I've read a lot of the randomness stuff elsewhere. The descriptions of basic mentalist techniques were interesting and showed the links to "default" human thinking. Oversold by the title.
December 10, 2016
Fair little train read. Not really about outsmarting people; it's a book about probability, suggestion and statistical models applied real life - weird 1950s radios, betting...I liked that it broke down what's actually a tonne of complicated maths. Decent enough read.
February 3, 2022
Entertaining read and as with most of Poundstone's books, the chapters can be read in any order. Not all of his insights are particularly novel and some are even incorrect (how to beat the stock market).
Bought at London charity shop.
Bought at London charity shop.
March 22, 2015
It was an interesting read, but the recommendation and strategies given at the end of every chapter is a bit too general and still requires additional information.
December 27, 2015
An enjoyable look at common misunderstandings about probability and prediction. The book concentrates on real-world examples and there is very little mathematical content
Displaying 1 - 30 of 31 reviews