A joint review of:
Cycles of Time
Roger Penrose
The Grand Design
Stephen Hawking and Leonard Mlodinow
Once upon a time, Roger Penrose and Stephen Hawking collaborated on a seminal piece of work which proved that if the general theory of relativity is correct our Universe began from a state of infinite density – a singularity. The investigation of the implications of that work, now more than 40 years old, still reverberate, providing the basis for intense debate among cosmologists.
Since the 1960s, Penrose and Hawking have each written best-selling books introducing the lay reader to arcane areas of science. Now, they have independently produced books which address some of the implications of their early discovery about the origins of the Universe. But it would be hard to imagine two more different approaches to the subject, both in terms of content and of style.
Penrose addresses the question, “what came before the Big Bang?” But it is important to appreciate that the Big Bang was not the singularity. There is a well-established consensus that the Universe as we know it emerged from as superhot, superdense state – the evidence for this comes in particular from studies of the famous cosmic microwave background radiation. But “superdense” does not mean “infinitely dense,” and there is room to suggest, or even expect, that under the extreme conditions “before the Big Bang” the laws of physics are not quite as described by Einstein so there may not have been a singularity.
The way Penrose tackles the problem is by combining what we know about the second law of thermodynamics and the arrow of time with what we know about the Big Bang and the general theory. If that thought makes your head hurt, his book is not for you. It contains many equations and pulls few punches, an archetypal example of what an Oxford don thinks is a simple exposition of his subject. But if you do not have a maths phobia, and you can live with language like “at this point, it is appropriate to mention . . . ”, Cycles of Time can be highly recommended as an example of how cosmologists are now thinking the unthinkable in trying to look back beyond the Big Bang and forward beyond the death of our Universe.
A superficial summary of Penrose’s thesis is that as the expanding Universe thins out and all the stars die the conditions that result are just right to produce a new Big Bang, so that universes like ours follow one another in an endless chain, or perhaps in an eternal loop, reminiscent of the image of the worm Ourobouros swallowing its own tail. As a speculation, this is a very old idea; the difference is that Penrose has the mathematical and physical foundations to make what he calls “conformal cyclic cosmology” respectable. It is also an idea whose time has come. I know of at least one other recent scientific suggestion, based on the idea of inflation, which also leads to the rebirth of the Universe from what in thermodynamic terms is sometimes called the “heat death”.
Penrose has universes following each other. Stephen Hawking, writing with the American physicist Leonard Mlodinow (who suffers the indignity of having his name in much smaller type on the cover, but is no doubt crying all the way to the bank), has universes lying side by side. This idea of the “multiverse” is also familiar from science fiction and other speculations, but like the cyclic universe idea it is now firmly based on scientific fact. The trouble is, you would be hard pressed to be sure of this after reading The Grand Design.
Hawking and Mlodinow favour cartoons rather than equations, and anecdote rather than exposition. If you knew nothing at all about science, the resulting book would make for a light read on a short journey, but the story has been told many times, by many people (Paul Davies and Martin Rees spring to mind), and it’s hard to imagine that it can have take more than a month to write, whereas it’s easy to believe that Cycles of Time took years. This is born out by the failure of either of the authors, both of whom know better, to pick up the error which refers to black holes as one of the “new effects” predicted by the general theory of relativity, when they are also predicted by Newton’s theory of gravity.
All this is particularly disappointing because I have a great fondness for the multiverse idea, which I believe to be the best explanation of why the Universe we see around us is the way it is. As Hawking and Mlodinow put it, in this view “the universe appeared spontaneously, starting off in every possible way. [Universes] aren’t just different in details, such as whether Elvis really did die young or whether turnips are a dessert food, but rather they differ even in their apparent laws of nature. In fact, many universes exist with many different sets of physical laws.”
Where do those other universes exist? Penrose’s universes follow one another, in a sense separated by time. But the universes of Hawking and Mlodinow exist side by side in different dimensions, separated by space. This array of universes is what is known as the Multiverse.
Part of the attraction of this idea is that it explains the many apparent coincidences that allow the existence of life forms like ourselves in the Universe we inhabit. To take just one example, more than half a century ago the physicist Fred Hoyle pointed out that the ability of stars to manufacture elements such as carbon and oxygen, which are essential for life as we know it, depends on a particular property of the nucleus of the carbon atom. If this and other parameters were not “just right” (and there is no a priori reason why they should have the properties they have) life as we know it would not exist.
At one extreme, the existence of these cosmic coincidences suggests to some people that the Universe was designed for our benefit. But the multiverse idea says that there is a multitude of universes in which all possible combinations of the laws of physics are played out and that life forms like us will only be found in the ones where conditions are suitable, just as it is no surprise that polar bears live in the Arctic. Martin Rees, the outgoing President of the Royal Society, has used the analogy of the difference between a bespoke suit, made to measure for a particular customer, and an off-the-peg suit, chosen from as vast variety in a chain store, where one of them is bound to fit whoever walks in the door. In each case, it is no surprise that the suit fits. And this brings us back to Penrose’s conformal cyclic cosmology, since on that picture each universe in the chain, or cycle, may have a different set of physical laws. Whichever way you look at it, the multiverse explains our existence without the need to invoke a designer.
This review first appeared in the Literary Review.