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336 pages, Hardcover
First published May 26, 2010
Within the broader field of systems analysis, this weakness - having to ignore certain realities because they are too complex to quantify - is so common that it even has a philosophical justification. Simple models, the conventional wisdom of the field holds, are better than complex models, because it's harder to keep track of all the moving parts in a complex model... "With RAND, they would start off with these very ambitious plans for simulation and then end up with something you could do on the back of an envelope," says Matthew Crenson. (p. 237)
Therein lies the strength of the city's case for the closings. The unions claimed the city was unfairly targeting black and Puerto Rican neighbourhoods, but RAND could provide reams of jargony technical reasoning and complicated equations that gave the whole process the air of impartiality. The judge concluded that the cuts were based on "exhaustive analysis," not race, and threw the lawsuit out.
"...was premised solely upon the neutral, nonracial, scientific, and empirical data available... That the ordered closings will take place in the areas in which they will, was, in the opinion of the court, a fortuitous circumstance." RAND's technical jargon and reams of data seemed able to quell almost any dissent, leaving the firemen and community activists who questioned RAND's recommendations sounding like backyard mechanics questioning NASA rocket scientists.