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Tomorrow's People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers
The great forces of population change – the balance of births, deaths and migrations – have made the world what it is today. They have determined which countries are superpowers and which languish in relative obscurity, which economies top the international league tables and which are at best also-rans.
The same forces that have shaped our past and present are shaping our future. Illustrating this through ten illuminating indicators, from the fertility rate in Singapore (one) to the median age in Catalonia (forty-three), Paul Morland shows how demography is both a powerful and an under-appreciated lens through which to view the global transformations that are currently underway.
Tomorrow’s People ranges from the countries of West Africa where the tendency towards large families is combining with falling infant mortality to create the greatest population explosion ever witnessed, to the countries of East Asia and Southern Europe where generations of low birth-rate and rising life expectancy are creating the oldest populations in history. Morland explores the geographical movements of peoples that are already under way – portents for still larger migrations ahead – which are radically changing the cultural, ethnic and religious composition of many societies across the globe, and in their turn creating political reaction that can be observed from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump. Finally, he looks at the two underlying motors of change – remarkable rises in levels of education and burgeoning food production – which have made all these epochal developments possible.
Tomorrow’s People provides a fascinating, illuminating and thought-provoking tour of an emerging new world. Nobody who wants to understand that world should be without it.
The same forces that have shaped our past and present are shaping our future. Illustrating this through ten illuminating indicators, from the fertility rate in Singapore (one) to the median age in Catalonia (forty-three), Paul Morland shows how demography is both a powerful and an under-appreciated lens through which to view the global transformations that are currently underway.
Tomorrow’s People ranges from the countries of West Africa where the tendency towards large families is combining with falling infant mortality to create the greatest population explosion ever witnessed, to the countries of East Asia and Southern Europe where generations of low birth-rate and rising life expectancy are creating the oldest populations in history. Morland explores the geographical movements of peoples that are already under way – portents for still larger migrations ahead – which are radically changing the cultural, ethnic and religious composition of many societies across the globe, and in their turn creating political reaction that can be observed from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump. Finally, he looks at the two underlying motors of change – remarkable rises in levels of education and burgeoning food production – which have made all these epochal developments possible.
Tomorrow’s People provides a fascinating, illuminating and thought-provoking tour of an emerging new world. Nobody who wants to understand that world should be without it.
304 pages, Hardcover
First published March 17, 2022
25 people are currently reading
632 people want to read
About the author
Paul Morland
9 books25 followersDr Paul Morland is associate research fellow at Birkbeck College, University of London and a renowned authority on demography. A French speaker with dual German and British citizenship, Paul was educated at Oxford University, and was awarded his PhD from the University of London.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 32 reviews
September 5, 2023
The secret to the future of humanity lies in the level of education of the female population.
May 10, 2022
The world population is just shy of 8 billion and is the largest it has ever been and shows no signs of slowing anytime soon. Or does it? The factors that have brought us to this point in the global population are changing and the demographic will be utterly different in the coming decades.
In Tomorrow’s People, Paul Morland takes ten numbers that show different ways that it is changing and speculates on the way that the global population will differ in the future. Beginning with the number 10, the current infant mortality rate in Peru per 1000 births, he shows how the advent of medicine and better healthcare means that they have been able to halve the rate in only 25 years. This doesn’t’ mean that they will have a population boom though, as people who lose fewer children have fewer babies in the end.
His next number is 4 billion, this is the current population of Africa, and as he says, it is this figure that will change global politics in so many ways. This continent is growing so fast as it has a high birth rate and there is improving infant mortality. Not only will the population head out from there but there is massive internal migration too with a whole series of factors behind it. Just over a century ago there were about a dozen cities with a population of over one million people. Now China alone has 121 cities that have a population that size. India has over forty now and most people couldn’t name hardly any of them. In this chapter, he explains how the urban environment sucks in people and resources and how they will set the trends for the population in future
The figure that is needed to maintain a steady population is about 2.1 children. In Singapore, though the fertility rate is 1. We are beginning to think that overpopulation of the world might not be a problem as many countries are now showing these low rates for a raft of reasons, which he goes into in this chapter. This coupled with ageing populations, the median age in Catalonia is now 43 and in other countries is higher still is also adding to the decline in some countries’ populations.
I thought the concept behind this book really worked well. Morland takes the way that the world is changing by exploring ten numbers from populations and countries around the world and expanding them in detail. Not only is it a way of understanding how we have got to where we are at the moment, but it is a good way of seeing the way that the world is heading in the short and medium-term. For me this book worked really well, I liked the way that a simple statistic can explain so much about the world in the past and the way that it is going to be shaped tomorrow.
In Tomorrow’s People, Paul Morland takes ten numbers that show different ways that it is changing and speculates on the way that the global population will differ in the future. Beginning with the number 10, the current infant mortality rate in Peru per 1000 births, he shows how the advent of medicine and better healthcare means that they have been able to halve the rate in only 25 years. This doesn’t’ mean that they will have a population boom though, as people who lose fewer children have fewer babies in the end.
His next number is 4 billion, this is the current population of Africa, and as he says, it is this figure that will change global politics in so many ways. This continent is growing so fast as it has a high birth rate and there is improving infant mortality. Not only will the population head out from there but there is massive internal migration too with a whole series of factors behind it. Just over a century ago there were about a dozen cities with a population of over one million people. Now China alone has 121 cities that have a population that size. India has over forty now and most people couldn’t name hardly any of them. In this chapter, he explains how the urban environment sucks in people and resources and how they will set the trends for the population in future
The figure that is needed to maintain a steady population is about 2.1 children. In Singapore, though the fertility rate is 1. We are beginning to think that overpopulation of the world might not be a problem as many countries are now showing these low rates for a raft of reasons, which he goes into in this chapter. This coupled with ageing populations, the median age in Catalonia is now 43 and in other countries is higher still is also adding to the decline in some countries’ populations.
I thought the concept behind this book really worked well. Morland takes the way that the world is changing by exploring ten numbers from populations and countries around the world and expanding them in detail. Not only is it a way of understanding how we have got to where we are at the moment, but it is a good way of seeing the way that the world is heading in the short and medium-term. For me this book worked really well, I liked the way that a simple statistic can explain so much about the world in the past and the way that it is going to be shaped tomorrow.
June 20, 2024
Read if you want facts and numbers. The conclusions are mostly old news.
January 7, 2026
An informative if unexciting read that explains key trends and future projections in demography, education and food production. Besides a few interesting facts and figures, however, this book would be nothing revelatory to anyone sufficiently well-versed in A-Level Geography.
February 16, 2026
Covers the major factors driving demographic change, albeit with politically correct blinders.
Paul Morland introduces this book with a modest disclaimer that demographic projections have almost always been wrong. This book is an analysis in 10 chapters of the factors that have affected and will affect the size and makeup of human populations. These are:
Infant Mortality
Population Growth
Urbanization
Fertility
Aging
Old Age
Population Decline
Ethnic Change
Education
Food
Infant mortality has been dropping throughout the world due to improved sanitation and medicines. People in undeveloped countries have typically had many children in the knowledge that only a few would survive. This applied to rich and poor alike – Henry VIII, despite his eight wives, left no male heirs. The drop in infant mortality is almost invariably followed, the generation or two later, by a drop in fertility. Families do not need, and cannot afford as many children as they can bear.
Population growth is a matter of simple arithmetic. Births minus deaths plus net migration. Although births have been below the replacement rate for a couple of decades now, most of the developed world is continuing to experience marginal growth. Life expectancy is increasing, so the death rate remains low, and the richer countries are experiencing that immigration. Population pyramids, however, show that there will be a decline. Significant fractions of the population are past reproductive age, and children are not that numerous. Populations will begin to fall before too long.
Just within the last couple of decades the majority of the world's population lives in cities. Cities have not reproduced themselves since Roman times. Children in the city are a financial liability. Their upkeep and education costs money, and their labor does not contribute to the family. Quite predictably, levels of fertility have fallen throughout East Asia, Europe and North America as people moved to the cities. There are other factors at work. In the cities there is more to do – more distraction. People are better educated, and they fall away from religion and other aspects of traditional life.
Fertility in the demographic sense is the number of children people actually have, not their ability to bear them. People are having fewer children because they want fewer children. However, fertility in the biological sense is also falling. Hormone levels and sperm counts are going down throughout the world. Other authors such as Stephanie Seneff have suggested that this may be attributable to environmental factors such as agricultural chemicals (Roundup is her bête noire) and vaccines. There are also psychological factors at work. Morland says that one quarter of Japanese have not had heterosexual sex by the age of 40. People are simply not attracted to each other.
The great decrease in infant mortality, as well as improvements in public health and medicine, have led to greater longevity. Populations are getting older at a very rapid rate. Morland cites cases such as Bangladesh where life expectancy may increase as much is two years over the course of a decade, and do so for a couple of decades on end. Aging populations are less inclined to go to war, and more inclined to look to government for social benefits. The rapidly falling ratio of workers to retirees does not bode well for people who are not already of retirement age.
The number of very old people – centenarians – is skyrocketing. Caring for them is a major concern. Many of Japan's most successful startups make their money by taking care of the very senior citizens.
Populations have already started to decline in certain countries such as Japan, South Korea, Ukraine and Russia. The decline will accelerate in those countries and spread pretty much throughout the developed world. This will have a major economic impact. Consumers will not be there. The market for the resale of homes will shrink. Child care, schools, toys and children's entertainment will all get smaller.
The population decline will not affect all ethnicities equally. Fertility rates in Africa remain high. Even though they are falling, Africa's population will grow dramatically over the current century as the rest of the world stagnates and falls. Certain religious groups, among them Muslims, Haridi Jews, Amish and Hutterites maintain high birth rates. Over the course of a couple of generations, these can significantly affect the demography of a country.
Education has raised the standard of living in most countries throughout the world. Some countries such as Bangladesh have made astounding progress in raising the level of education of their populations. Educated women, given the choice of motherhood or a career, often forgo motherhood. More education is associated with lower fertility. Morland writes that there is a definite upper limit on the advantages of education. A society has a limited need for educated people. He cites Egypt as a country where there are far more educated people than jobs for them – many remain unemployed.
The last consideration Morland addresses is the availability of food. With the improved productivity brought by the green revolution and approved agricultural practices, and stagnant and falling populations, food should not be a limiting factor. Malthus and Paul Ehrlich were probably wrong to project that are fecundity would outstrip our ingenuity and food production.
There are many elements of traditional wisdom that Morland does not question. He accepts that climate change is real. He believes that it will affect the ability of different countries to supply adequate food to their populations. Morland's explanations are based on the implicit assumption that all peoples of the world are equally capable. This politically correct notion only emerged over the past few decades. Our ancestors would have found it absurd, and it flies in the face of observation. Authors Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen tackle the question directly in their books IQ and Global Inequality and the earlier IQ and The Wealth of Nations. More mainstream authors such as Nicholas Wade and Richard Plomin make the same point with a bit more diplomacy and delicacy.
This book is worth reading as a catalog of the issues to be addressed in the study of demography.
Paul Morland introduces this book with a modest disclaimer that demographic projections have almost always been wrong. This book is an analysis in 10 chapters of the factors that have affected and will affect the size and makeup of human populations. These are:
Infant Mortality
Population Growth
Urbanization
Fertility
Aging
Old Age
Population Decline
Ethnic Change
Education
Food
Infant mortality has been dropping throughout the world due to improved sanitation and medicines. People in undeveloped countries have typically had many children in the knowledge that only a few would survive. This applied to rich and poor alike – Henry VIII, despite his eight wives, left no male heirs. The drop in infant mortality is almost invariably followed, the generation or two later, by a drop in fertility. Families do not need, and cannot afford as many children as they can bear.
Population growth is a matter of simple arithmetic. Births minus deaths plus net migration. Although births have been below the replacement rate for a couple of decades now, most of the developed world is continuing to experience marginal growth. Life expectancy is increasing, so the death rate remains low, and the richer countries are experiencing that immigration. Population pyramids, however, show that there will be a decline. Significant fractions of the population are past reproductive age, and children are not that numerous. Populations will begin to fall before too long.
Just within the last couple of decades the majority of the world's population lives in cities. Cities have not reproduced themselves since Roman times. Children in the city are a financial liability. Their upkeep and education costs money, and their labor does not contribute to the family. Quite predictably, levels of fertility have fallen throughout East Asia, Europe and North America as people moved to the cities. There are other factors at work. In the cities there is more to do – more distraction. People are better educated, and they fall away from religion and other aspects of traditional life.
Fertility in the demographic sense is the number of children people actually have, not their ability to bear them. People are having fewer children because they want fewer children. However, fertility in the biological sense is also falling. Hormone levels and sperm counts are going down throughout the world. Other authors such as Stephanie Seneff have suggested that this may be attributable to environmental factors such as agricultural chemicals (Roundup is her bête noire) and vaccines. There are also psychological factors at work. Morland says that one quarter of Japanese have not had heterosexual sex by the age of 40. People are simply not attracted to each other.
The great decrease in infant mortality, as well as improvements in public health and medicine, have led to greater longevity. Populations are getting older at a very rapid rate. Morland cites cases such as Bangladesh where life expectancy may increase as much is two years over the course of a decade, and do so for a couple of decades on end. Aging populations are less inclined to go to war, and more inclined to look to government for social benefits. The rapidly falling ratio of workers to retirees does not bode well for people who are not already of retirement age.
The number of very old people – centenarians – is skyrocketing. Caring for them is a major concern. Many of Japan's most successful startups make their money by taking care of the very senior citizens.
Populations have already started to decline in certain countries such as Japan, South Korea, Ukraine and Russia. The decline will accelerate in those countries and spread pretty much throughout the developed world. This will have a major economic impact. Consumers will not be there. The market for the resale of homes will shrink. Child care, schools, toys and children's entertainment will all get smaller.
The population decline will not affect all ethnicities equally. Fertility rates in Africa remain high. Even though they are falling, Africa's population will grow dramatically over the current century as the rest of the world stagnates and falls. Certain religious groups, among them Muslims, Haridi Jews, Amish and Hutterites maintain high birth rates. Over the course of a couple of generations, these can significantly affect the demography of a country.
Education has raised the standard of living in most countries throughout the world. Some countries such as Bangladesh have made astounding progress in raising the level of education of their populations. Educated women, given the choice of motherhood or a career, often forgo motherhood. More education is associated with lower fertility. Morland writes that there is a definite upper limit on the advantages of education. A society has a limited need for educated people. He cites Egypt as a country where there are far more educated people than jobs for them – many remain unemployed.
The last consideration Morland addresses is the availability of food. With the improved productivity brought by the green revolution and approved agricultural practices, and stagnant and falling populations, food should not be a limiting factor. Malthus and Paul Ehrlich were probably wrong to project that are fecundity would outstrip our ingenuity and food production.
There are many elements of traditional wisdom that Morland does not question. He accepts that climate change is real. He believes that it will affect the ability of different countries to supply adequate food to their populations. Morland's explanations are based on the implicit assumption that all peoples of the world are equally capable. This politically correct notion only emerged over the past few decades. Our ancestors would have found it absurd, and it flies in the face of observation. Authors Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen tackle the question directly in their books IQ and Global Inequality and the earlier IQ and The Wealth of Nations. More mainstream authors such as Nicholas Wade and Richard Plomin make the same point with a bit more diplomacy and delicacy.
This book is worth reading as a catalog of the issues to be addressed in the study of demography.
December 19, 2024
This book promises a look over the edge at the near future of humanity. Although packed with facts, it fails, ultimately, to deliver. It would be fair to say that Morland stands on the centre-right of politics, and has very little sympathy for doom-mongers that preach imminent catastrophe, whether from climate change or overpopulation. And with good reason — Marxist policies on feeding populations have always led to disaster (‘Marxism Today: Famine Tomorrow’); and, in any case, doomsayers make political capital from preaching bad news. As Morland shows, the world’s human population is ageing, and is set to top out and begin a decline perhaps towards the end of the present century. In many countries it is below the natural replacement rate. In recent centuries the world has undergone at least one, and in many cases two, so-called demographic transitions. In the first, life expectancy at birth is increased but fertility remains high, so the population balloons. This is essentially what happened in Britain in the Industrial Revolution and led Thomas Malthus to predict widespread starvation. Paul Ehrlich was still doing this in 1968 in his book The Population Bomb when world population growth was at its peak. But then came the second demographic transition, when people moved to cities and had fewer children. This is what is happening now in most countries. In some the population is contracting at a remarkable rate, and whole swathes of countryside have been abandoned in countries as varied and widespread as Bulgaria, Russia and Japan. City dwellers have less environmental impact than people in the country. And there’s another side benefit – older populations tend to be less warlike. On the whole, there are fewer conflicts in the world than there used to be. The big exception is sub-Saharan Africa. Africa — and especially West Africa — is in the throes of the first but not the second demographic transition. As Morland shows, the population of Africa is booming even as it is shrinking elsewhere. Tomorrow’s people are likely to be more African than Chinese or Indian. After noting that the population of Africa will be four billion in 2100, I was waiting in vain for the other shoe to drop. A burgeoning population is a young population, and bellicose. The increasing drought in the Sahel adds to the endemic corruption and poor governance that are ever exploited by revolution and war. The ravages of Islamist militancy in countries such as Mali make few headlines. The multi-nation war that rages, on and off, in the Congo Basin, even fewer. Europe is already feeling the pressure of northward migration as conflict and climate make life in parts of Africa increasingly intolerable. Eventually, Africa will settle down, and the population will start to decline. Most migration in Africa stays within that continent, and the movement is generally towards mega-cities such as Lagos, after which the second demographic transition will take place. But the road before that might be rocky. Morland really should have said so.
October 27, 2024
Paul Morland, born in 1964 and residing in London, is a demographer and an associate research fellow at Birkbeck, University of London and a senior member at St Antony's College, Oxford. His book “Tomorrow’s People” examines the impact of demographic changes on society, analyzing trends in aging and birth rates in developed countries and discussing how these trends may eventually affect developing nations. Notably, Morland uses global statistics to approach demographic shifts through an interdisciplinary lens, connecting history, economics, geography, and culture. This approach makes his book unique, as he encourages readers to consider future decisions based on extensive data.
A recurring theme is the importance of individual choice in shaping humanity’s future, a stance that suggests a move away from relying solely on government decisions. The book also includes many insights on Japan, my country, discussing innovations for an aging society, declining birth rates and women’s social roles, and Japan’s strict immigration policies. These reflections provide a global perspective on Japan’s unique challenges and achievements.
However, some parts of the book lack depth. For instance, Morland’s praise of the "Green Revolution" on page 228 overlooks critiques, such as its role in increasing poverty in developing countries due to the high cost of pesticides and hybrid seeds. Similarly, on pages 234–235, his comments on obesity in Palestinian territories imply economic improvement but overlook that lower-income groups often consume high-sugar, high-fat, and low-nutrition foods due to affordability issues.
Despite these criticisms, Morland’s book provides valuable, accessible insights into demographics for Japanese readers. With appropriate supplementary content from Japanese demographic experts, a Japanese translation could facilitate productive discussion on demographic challenges.
A recurring theme is the importance of individual choice in shaping humanity’s future, a stance that suggests a move away from relying solely on government decisions. The book also includes many insights on Japan, my country, discussing innovations for an aging society, declining birth rates and women’s social roles, and Japan’s strict immigration policies. These reflections provide a global perspective on Japan’s unique challenges and achievements.
However, some parts of the book lack depth. For instance, Morland’s praise of the "Green Revolution" on page 228 overlooks critiques, such as its role in increasing poverty in developing countries due to the high cost of pesticides and hybrid seeds. Similarly, on pages 234–235, his comments on obesity in Palestinian territories imply economic improvement but overlook that lower-income groups often consume high-sugar, high-fat, and low-nutrition foods due to affordability issues.
Despite these criticisms, Morland’s book provides valuable, accessible insights into demographics for Japanese readers. With appropriate supplementary content from Japanese demographic experts, a Japanese translation could facilitate productive discussion on demographic challenges.
April 23, 2023
3.5 stars. It's a great overview and update of what you've learned in demography in high school or college. Much of the world and population has changed and this book gives you a light and quick overview. It won't answer all your deeper questions such as, what would happen to the decline of the superpowers we now have? Or what happens when cultures die? Or to the planet.
But what it will do is give you enough appetite to ask further questions and look into them. I would even say for demographers dealing in macro data, he's pretty positive about what will happen in the world. Not overpopulation despite the size but a population collapse. He skates over in depth ones.
I did learn several interesting stuff like the decoupling of small family size to economic wealth provided there's education and violence is linked not to poverty but age. How GMOs have continued to save the Global South and will continue to do so. We all know that Japan is collapsing but not Bulgaria. Little tidbits of facts that are interesting and a jumping board to other books and questions.
It's a fun light read when you want to know stuff but busy with other heavier books.
But what it will do is give you enough appetite to ask further questions and look into them. I would even say for demographers dealing in macro data, he's pretty positive about what will happen in the world. Not overpopulation despite the size but a population collapse. He skates over in depth ones.
I did learn several interesting stuff like the decoupling of small family size to economic wealth provided there's education and violence is linked not to poverty but age. How GMOs have continued to save the Global South and will continue to do so. We all know that Japan is collapsing but not Bulgaria. Little tidbits of facts that are interesting and a jumping board to other books and questions.
It's a fun light read when you want to know stuff but busy with other heavier books.
July 13, 2022
Paul Morland has seen the future, and it's about...people.
In particular, it's about the number of people we'll have living on Earth fifty years from now.
Looking carefully into falling birth rates AND falling death rates, Morland finds a planet whose population is stabilizing and heading for reduction. A planet where humans are gathering more and more in urban areas. A planet where a higher and higher proportion of the population will be African in the future.
Chock full of insights, this book really takes the long view. For many years in my own country, the United States, economic growth surged as a result of "free" land (stolen from indigenous people) and low wages fueled by immigration. Looking ahead, countries have already begun to entice skilled migrants as birth rates throughout the developed world have fallen below replacement levels.
New models of economic growth and stability will be needed in the era that is to come.
In particular, it's about the number of people we'll have living on Earth fifty years from now.
Looking carefully into falling birth rates AND falling death rates, Morland finds a planet whose population is stabilizing and heading for reduction. A planet where humans are gathering more and more in urban areas. A planet where a higher and higher proportion of the population will be African in the future.
Chock full of insights, this book really takes the long view. For many years in my own country, the United States, economic growth surged as a result of "free" land (stolen from indigenous people) and low wages fueled by immigration. Looking ahead, countries have already begun to entice skilled migrants as birth rates throughout the developed world have fallen below replacement levels.
New models of economic growth and stability will be needed in the era that is to come.
April 16, 2023
A fascinating book, very easy to read, illustrating the nuances and drivers behind familiar topics relating to population such as ageing societies and predictions on future global population.
Observations such as ageing populations result in reduced likelihood of revolution or wars.
Who knows the future? Behind the calamitous headlines, there is so much positive progress in improving people’s lives which this book illustrates.
I appreciate books that help provide evidence based observations (which this does) so I can feel I can understand why future events happen.
Some reviewers criticise the book for stating facts that are obvious to them - and I agree, some of the facts are to anyone interested in this subject, but Paul presents them as part of an overall picture or conclusion. At the same time I didn’t feel he was forcing conclusions on me.
Well worth reading for a constructive observation on population and the future of humanity.
Observations such as ageing populations result in reduced likelihood of revolution or wars.
Who knows the future? Behind the calamitous headlines, there is so much positive progress in improving people’s lives which this book illustrates.
I appreciate books that help provide evidence based observations (which this does) so I can feel I can understand why future events happen.
Some reviewers criticise the book for stating facts that are obvious to them - and I agree, some of the facts are to anyone interested in this subject, but Paul presents them as part of an overall picture or conclusion. At the same time I didn’t feel he was forcing conclusions on me.
Well worth reading for a constructive observation on population and the future of humanity.
September 20, 2023
Morland discuss 10 items related to population growth and decline in a generalizing but not strict context of rules. The strongest advantage of the book is that he is not restricted by the nonsensical limits of political correctness, and he's letting some comments to slip through the cracks that debunk liberal myths.
On the other hand, he is self-imprisoned in a cosmopolitan, liberal way of thinking, which leads him focus a little too much on the numbers and neglect the significance of qualitative analysis of numbers instead of just a quantitative one.
Maybe the most important message from the book is that there is no pre-defined future for demographic problems, the assumptions that scientists make are great leading to significant difference between their predictions (or even the assessment of the current condition) and a lot are at stake in the area of religious/ideological/ethnic way of self-identification and formation of the society.
On the other hand, he is self-imprisoned in a cosmopolitan, liberal way of thinking, which leads him focus a little too much on the numbers and neglect the significance of qualitative analysis of numbers instead of just a quantitative one.
Maybe the most important message from the book is that there is no pre-defined future for demographic problems, the assumptions that scientists make are great leading to significant difference between their predictions (or even the assessment of the current condition) and a lot are at stake in the area of religious/ideological/ethnic way of self-identification and formation of the society.
September 8, 2022
Ooooh, this was a fascinating book! I don't think I have ever read a book that was written by a demographer before and it certainly piqued my interest, well and truly.
Paul Morland explains how populations change and he raises some interesting questions as well. There were some things that I suspected about why a particular country is not doing as well as others, and there were other things that I had clearly not thought deeply enough about and the author brought these to my attention. I know I am being a bit vague, but it is hard to describe this book.
Just know that 10 different factors regarding populations and how they change are discussed in this book and it will really make you think. Eye-opening, and a little frustrating too.
4.5 stars from me.
Paul Morland explains how populations change and he raises some interesting questions as well. There were some things that I suspected about why a particular country is not doing as well as others, and there were other things that I had clearly not thought deeply enough about and the author brought these to my attention. I know I am being a bit vague, but it is hard to describe this book.
Just know that 10 different factors regarding populations and how they change are discussed in this book and it will really make you think. Eye-opening, and a little frustrating too.
4.5 stars from me.
January 12, 2026
I wanted to give up at the beginning - luckily i haven't! There are 10 chapters, each analyzing a different trend in today demography in order to understand the demography of the future. In the first one there was nothing new to me, that's I wanted to give up, but going on it goes deeper and shows why all these trend are interwined.
It is super accessible, the author always maintained a distant and unbiased approach.
All the book can be summarized with a sentence of the conclusions: the demography of the future is the result of a trade-off of three Es. Economics (if you want a prosperous growth), Ethnicity (if you want no immigrants) and Egoism (priority to have children rather than carrier or personal time). We can choose only two of the three.
It is super accessible, the author always maintained a distant and unbiased approach.
All the book can be summarized with a sentence of the conclusions: the demography of the future is the result of a trade-off of three Es. Economics (if you want a prosperous growth), Ethnicity (if you want no immigrants) and Egoism (priority to have children rather than carrier or personal time). We can choose only two of the three.
December 11, 2022
I bought this book after hearing Paul Morland speak at TEDx Vienna. This book will open your eyes to the way changes to populations through things like aging, education and fertility can affect things like war and jobs and which nations will be super powers. The saddest thing in the book is that some young people may only ever know authoritarianism because there are not enough young people to make a revolution. There are many positives in the book particularly the increasing priority in female education. The conclusion also left me hoping that I’m around to see the future.
January 30, 2023
A rare non fiction book which is exactly the right length, not 30x the right length. Fascinating, fact based, reasonable, and fun to read, despite some troubling information he brings up. This book had shifted my perspective on a way that few have in the last decade, giving an entirely new (for me) legs through which to view the trends in human events.
The usual left of center biases I expect from academics and writers is present but not so much as to be annoying, and it does but at all take away from his conclusions.
Five stars!
The usual left of center biases I expect from academics and writers is present but not so much as to be annoying, and it does but at all take away from his conclusions.
Five stars!
December 7, 2024
يتحدث عن عشر أرقام مهمة يمكن اعتبارها مؤشرات علي الاتجاه البشري نحو التطور
من هه الارقام: عمر الإنسان الي بدأ في التزايد في لفترة الأخيرة، فقبل نحو قرن من الزمان كان الإنسان لا يعيش لأكثر من أرعبن سنه
والقليل من البشر كانوا يتخطون هذه المرحلة العمرية
وضرب المؤلف مثلا بعائلة مالكة في بريطانيا وذكر تقريرا عن أعمارهم وكيفية تأثير الموت المبكر علي وراثة العرش، وضرب مثلا بعائلة شديدة الفقر في بنجلاديش، كان فقراء بنجلاديش أكثر خظا في البقاء علي قيد الحياة
أيضا نسبة بقاءؤ المواليد بعد ولادتهم علي قيد الحياة، فقد كانت النسبة ضئية جدا سابقا وانخفضت حتي كادت تنعدم في أغلب بلاد العالم
كثير من الأرقام المشابهة التي يمكن اعتبارها مؤشرا عالميا علي تحول نوع البشر
من هه الأرقام عدد البشر علي الأرض وكيف ستتحمل الأرض بقاء كل هذا العدد
الكتاب ممتاز لكن انا لا أهوي الأرقام والاحصاءات
من هه الارقام: عمر الإنسان الي بدأ في التزايد في لفترة الأخيرة، فقبل نحو قرن من الزمان كان الإنسان لا يعيش لأكثر من أرعبن سنه
والقليل من البشر كانوا يتخطون هذه المرحلة العمرية
وضرب المؤلف مثلا بعائلة مالكة في بريطانيا وذكر تقريرا عن أعمارهم وكيفية تأثير الموت المبكر علي وراثة العرش، وضرب مثلا بعائلة شديدة الفقر في بنجلاديش، كان فقراء بنجلاديش أكثر خظا في البقاء علي قيد الحياة
أيضا نسبة بقاءؤ المواليد بعد ولادتهم علي قيد الحياة، فقد كانت النسبة ضئية جدا سابقا وانخفضت حتي كادت تنعدم في أغلب بلاد العالم
كثير من الأرقام المشابهة التي يمكن اعتبارها مؤشرا عالميا علي تحول نوع البشر
من هه الأرقام عدد البشر علي الأرض وكيف ستتحمل الأرض بقاء كل هذا العدد
الكتاب ممتاز لكن انا لا أهوي الأرقام والاحصاءات
March 7, 2026
3.75/5
Not a lot to say about it. It's about future demographics and can basically be summed up as people in the future will be older (the aging population), less white (due to the growing population in Africa) and more educated. He also talks a lot about birth rates and their decline, which he mainly sees as a bad thing. For people who read a lot about news and politics it might not have much new information but as an introduction to demographics its decent.
Not a lot to say about it. It's about future demographics and can basically be summed up as people in the future will be older (the aging population), less white (due to the growing population in Africa) and more educated. He also talks a lot about birth rates and their decline, which he mainly sees as a bad thing. For people who read a lot about news and politics it might not have much new information but as an introduction to demographics its decent.
July 16, 2022
I haven't finished this audiobook, the narration is terrible and boring me to tears. Also I suspect it's just saying much of what we already know, that our increasing numbers are a pox on the planet and women's education and contraception is the key to keeping our family sizes smaller.
January 6, 2023
Libro molto interessante, che porta a considerare aspetti dell'evoluzione demografica mondiale apparentemente contrari alla narrazione prevalente dei media. Gli ultimi 3-4 capitoli però mi sono sembrati un po' troppo approssimativi.
February 25, 2023
A really good insight into population and demography trends with a balanced look over all continents. Losing a star because of the conclusion. The author’s views on climate change and vulnerability are completely outdated for such a new release.
June 5, 2023
The book is interesting, but the writing could use some improvement. I had to read some sentences three times because the author's grammar is at times a bit all over the place. Furthermore, his sentences sometimes lack cohesion with each other, and he repeats himself all too often.
July 6, 2023
Light reading. Abundance of Fun facts. Wished there was more depth of unique analysis and perspective on the ‘so what’ implications of these numbers. Nonetheless, a good entry level read to discover more on each topic of interest.
August 1, 2022
A good book if you know nothing about the topic, but dull to read if you have even introductory knowledge
October 15, 2022
A must read if interested in how future world will be.
July 15, 2023
Very interesting
September 9, 2023
Excellent summary of demographic trends
February 28, 2024
This was a really interesting book but I found that it was written in quite an academic style.
August 5, 2024
Scrapes a four. Fascinating and important subject but a lot of repetition.
January 4, 2025
Good and very interesting content. Thoroughly annoyed by the fact the numbers on the cover have little to no relevance to the actual chapters
August 17, 2025
Well written. The author's pro-Israel bias shines through. Factual rehash of well-known arguments. Nothing insightful, but a useful primer.
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