Turns out that pi's not as humble as one could imagine. That many people actually did die as a result of many of the errors is tragic and definitely takes most of fun from the comedy. The unfortunate book name aside, it's a magnificent read into how maths go bump in everywhere.
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‘Plaintiff’s insistence that the commercial appears to be a serious offer requires the Court to explain why the commercial is funny. Explaining why a joke is funny is a daunting task.’ (c)
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I went with my favourite method of comparing big numbers to time. We know a million, a billion and a trillion are different sizes, but we often don’t appreciate the staggering increases between them. A million seconds from now is just shy of eleven days and fourteen hours. Not so bad. I could wait that long. It’s within two weeks. A billion seconds is over thirty-one years.
A trillion seconds from now is after the year 33700CE.
Those surprising numbers actually make perfect sense after a moment’s thought. Million, billion and trillion are each a thousand times bigger than each other. A million seconds is roughly a third of a month, so a billion seconds is on the order of 330 (a third of a thousand) months. And if a billion is around thirty-one years, then of course a trillion is around 31,000 years. (c)
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Even after a lifetime of education dealing with small numbers there is a vestigial instinct that larger numbers are logarithmic; that the gap between a trillion and a billion feels about the same as the jump between a million and a billion – because both are a thousand times bigger. In reality, the jump to a trillion is much bigger: the difference between living to your early thirties and a time when humankind may no longer exist. (c)
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I believe that ‘regardless of flight phase’ is official FAA speak for ‘This could go down mid-flight.’ Their official line on airworthiness was the requirement of ‘repetitive maintenance tasks for electrical power deactivation’. That is to say, anyone with a Boeing 787 had to remember to turn it off and on again. (с)
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A political committee is rarely a good solution to a mathematical problem. (c)
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To get everything back into alignment in the first place, the year 46BCE had a possible-world-record 445 days. (c)
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The building at 20 Fenchurch Street in London … By all measures, it’s a successful building. Except, during the summer of 2013, it started setting things on fire. …
The exterior of the building was designed by architect Rafael Viñoly to have a sweeping curve, but this meant that all the reflective glass windows accidentally became a massive concave mirror – a kind of giant lens in the sky able to focus sunlight on a tiny area. It’s not often sunny in London, but when a sun-filled day in summer 2013 lined up with the recently completed windows, a death heat-ray swept across London.
Okay, it wasn’t that bad. But it was producing temperatures of around 90°C, which was enough to scorch the doormat at a nearby barber’s shop. A parked car was a bit melted and someone claimed it burned their lemon (that’s not cockney rhyming slang; it was an actual lemon). A local reporter with a flair for the dramatic took the opportunity to fry some eggs by placing a pan in the hotspot. (c)
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In July 2011 a thirty-nine-storey shopping centre in South Korea had to be evacuated because resonance was vibrating the building. People at the top of the building felt it start to shake, as if someone had banged the bass and turned up the treble. Which was exactly the problem. After the official investigation had ruled out an earthquake, they found the culprit was an exercise class on the twelfth floor.
On 5 July 2011 they had decided to work out to Snap’s ‘The Power’, and everyone jumped around harder than they usually did. Could the rhythm of ‘The Power’ match a resonant frequency of the building? During the investigation, about twenty people were crammed back into that room to recreate the exercise class and, sure enough, they did have the power. When the exercise class on the twelfth floor had ‘The Power’, the thirty-eighth floor started shaking around ten times more than it normally did. (c)
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When it was reopened, the Millennium Bridge was described as ‘probably the most complex passively-damped structure in the world’. Not an epithet most of us would aspire to. (c)
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… British engineers prided themselves on their stiff upper bridges. (c)
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Obviously, we should do whatever we can to avoid engineering mistakes, but when engineers are pushing the boundaries of what is possible, occasionally a new aspect of mathematical behaviour will unexpectedly emerge. Sometimes the addition of a little bit more mass is all it takes to change the mathematics of how a structure behaves.
This is a common theme in human progress. We make things beyond what we understand, and we always have done. …
When theory lags behind application, there will always be mathematical surprises lying in wait. The important thing is that we learn from these inevitable mistakes and don’t repeat them. (c)
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In the mid-1990s a new employee of Sun Microsystems in California kept disappearing from their database. Every time his details were entered, the system seemed to eat him whole; he would disappear without a trace. No one in HR could work out why poor Steve Null was database kryptonite. (c)
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Carrying on in the same vein as Steve Null, I’d like you to meet Brian Test, Avery Blank and Jeff Sample. The Null problem can be fixed by encoding names in a format for only character data, so that it doesn’t get confused with the data value of NULL. But Avery Blank has a bigger problem: humans.
When Avery Blank was at law school she had difficulty getting an internship because her applications were not taken seriously. People would see ‘Blank’ in the surname field and assume it was an incomplete application. She always had to get in touch and convince the selection committee that she was a real human.
Brian Test and Jeff Sample fell foul of the same problem, but for slightly different reasons. When you set up a new database, or a way to input data, it’s good practice to test it and make sure it’s all working. So you feed through some dummy data to check the pipeline. I run a lot of projects with schools, and they often sign up online. I’ve just opened my most recent such database and scrolled to the top. The first entry is from a Ms Teacher who works at Test High School on Test Road in the county of Fakenham. She’s probably a relation of Mr Teacher from St Fakington’s Grammar School, who seems to sign up for everything I do.
To avoid being deleted as unwanted test data, when Brian Test started a new job, he brought in a cake for all his new colleagues to enjoy. Printed on the cake was a picture of his face, with the following words written in icing: ‘I’m Brian Test and I’m real.’ Like a lot of office problems, the issue was solved with free cake, and he was not deleted again. (c)
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So, when it comes to names, if you inherit a database-killing last name, you can either wear it as a badge of honour or take some deed-poll action. But if you are a parent, please don’t give your child a first name which will set them up for a lifetime of battling computers. And given that over three hundred children in the USA since 1990 have been named Abcde, it’s worth spelling this out: don’t name your child anything like Fake, Null or DECLARE. (c)
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In Los Angeles there is a block of land on the corner of West 1st Street and South Spring Street which houses the offices of the LA Times. It is just down the street from City Hall and directly over the road from the LA Police Department. There may be some rough areas of LA best avoided by tourists, but this is certainly not one of them. The area looks as safe as safe can be … until you check the LAPD’s online map of reported crime locations. Between October 2008 and March 2009 there were 1,380 crimes on that block. That’s around 4 per cent of all crimes marked on the map.
When the LA Times noticed this, it politely asked the LAPD what was going on. … If the computer is unable to work out the location, it simply logs the default location for Los Angeles: the front doorstep of the LAPD headquarters. (c)
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Whenever a computer cannot decipher a location, it still has to fill something in, and so 0,0 became the default location. The island where bad data goes to die. (c)
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For a start, just because something walks like a number and quacks like a number does not mean it is a number. (c)
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For generations, cartographers have been sneaking fictitious places into real maps (often as a way to expose people plagiarizing their work), and it was inevitable that Null Island would take on a life of its own. So, they literally put it on the map. (c)
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So the signs remain incorrect. But at least now I have a framed letter from the UK government saying that they don’t think accurate maths is important and they don’t believe street signs should have to follow the laws of geometry. (c)
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Never put ‘teamwork cogs’ as a search term into a stock image website. For a start, if you’re not used to the cheese-tastic world of inspirational work posters, what you see will come as a shock. The next shock is that a lot of the diagrams supposed to be showing a team working like a well-oiled machine use a mechanism which would be permanently seized in place. …
The longer I think about it, the more I’m convinced that this does actually make a great analogy for workplace teamwork. (c)
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I don’t complain that Picasso’s works are biologically implausible or send Salvador Dalí angry letters about the melting point of clocks. (c)
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It seems they used to do their upper- and lower-body workouts on alternate days but now, due to a lack of time, they wanted to know if there was any risk in doing it all on the same day, making for fewer trips to the gym. I know how they feel: I split my days between geometry and algebra. (c)
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The game designers had deliberately given Gandhi the lowest non-zero aggression rating possible: a score of 1. Classic Gandhi. But later in the game, when all the civilizations were becoming more, well, civilized, every leader had their aggression rating dropped by two. For Gandhi, starting from 1, this calculation played out as 1 − 2 = 255, suddenly setting him to maximum aggression. Even though this error has since been fixed, later versions of the game have kept Gandhi as the most nuke-happy leader as a tradition. (с)
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If you want something unlikely to occur, you simply need the patience to create enough opportunities to allow it to happen. (c)
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The managers and high-up people in NASA were saying that each shuttle launch had only a one in 100,000 chance of disaster. But, to Feynman’s ears, that did not sound right. He realized it would mean there could be a shuttle launch every day for three hundred years with only one disaster. (с)
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What counts as a mistake in finance? Of course, there are the obvious ones, where people simply get the numbers wrong. On 8 December 2005 the Japanese investment firm Mizuho Securities sent an order to the Tokyo Stock Exchange to sell a single share in the company J-COM Co. Ltd for ¥610,000 (around £3,000 at the time). Well, they thought they were selling one share for ¥610,000 but the person typing in the order accidentally swapped the numbers and put in an order to sell 610,000 shares for ¥1 each.
They frantically tried to cancel it, but the Tokyo Stock Exchange was proving resistant. Other firms were snapping up the discount shares and, by the time trading was suspended the following day, Mizuho Securities were looking at a minimum of ¥27 billion in losses (well over £100 million at the time). It was described as a ‘fat fingers’ error. I would have gone with something more like ‘distracted fingers’ or ‘should learn to double-check all important data entry but is probably now fired anyway fingers’.
The wake of the error was wide-reaching: confidence dropped in the Tokyo Stock Exchange as a whole, and the Nikkei Index fell 1.95 per cent in one day. Some, but not all, of the firms which bought the discount stock offered to give them back. A later ruling by the Tokyo District Court put some of the blame on the Tokyo Stock Exchange because their system did not allow Mizuho to cancel the erroneous order. This only serves to confirm my theory that everything is better with an undo button.
This is the numerical equivalent of a typo. (c)
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Some of the ancient Sumerian records were written by a person seemingly named Kushim and signed off by their supervisor, Nisa. Some historians have argued that Kushim is the earliest human whose name we know. It seems the first human whose name has been passed down through millennia of history was not a ruler, a warrior or a priest … but an accountant. The eighteen existing clay tablets which are signed Kushim indicate that their job was to control the stock levels in a warehouse which held the raw materials for brewing beer. I mean, that is still a thing; a friend of mine manages a brewery and does exactly that for a living. (His name is Rich, by the way, just in case this book is one of the few objects to survive the apocalypse and he becomes the new oldest-named human.) (c)
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A salami-slicing rounding-down attack was part of the plot of the 1999 film Office Space (just like Superman III). The main characters altered the computer code at a company so that, whenever interest was being calculated, instead of being rounded to the nearest penny the value would be truncated and the remaining fractions of a penny deposited into their account. Like the Vancouver Stock Exchange Index, this could theoretically carry on unnoticed as those fractions of pennies gradually added up.
Most real-world salami-slicing scams seem to use amounts greater than fractions of a penny but still operate below the threshold where people will notice and complain. One embezzler within a bank wrote software to take twenty or thirty cents out of accounts at random, never hitting the same account more than three times in a year. Two programmers in a New York firm increased the tax withheld on all company pay cheques by two cents each week but sent the money to their own tax-withholding accounts so they received it all as a tax refund at the end of the year. There are rumours that an employee of a Canadian bank implemented the interest-rounding scam to net $70,000 (and was discovered only when the bank looked for the most active account to give them an award), but I cannot find any evidence to back that up. (c)
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Precision and accuracy often get jumbled together, but they are two very different things. Precision is the level of detail given, and accuracy is how true something is. I can accurately say I was born on Earth, but it’s not very precise. I can precisely say I was born at latitude 37.229N, longitude 115.811W, but that is not at all accurate. Which gives you a lot of wriggle-room when answering questions if people don’t demand that you be accurate and precise. Accurately, I can say that someone drank all the beer. Precisely, I can say that an Albanian who holds several Tetris world records drank all the beer. But I’d rather not be precise and accurate at the same time, as it may incriminate me. (c)
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In 2017 it was reported that if the US switched all of its coal power production to be solar power it would save 51,999 lives every year, an oddly specific number. It clearly looks like it has not been rounded; check out all those nines! But to my eye it looks like two numbers of different sizes have been combined and have produced an unnecessary level of precision as a result. I’ve mentioned in this book that the universe is 13,800 million years old. But if you’re reading it three years after it was published, that does not mean that the universe is now 13,800,000,003 years old. Numbers with different orders of magnitude (sizes of the numbers) cannot always be added and subtracted from each other in a meaningful way.
The figure of 51,999 was the difference between lives saved not using coal and deaths caused by solar. Previous research in 2013 had established that the emissions from coal-burning power stations caused about 52,000 deaths a year. The solar photovoltaic industry was still too small to have any recorded deaths. So the researchers used statistics from the semiconductor industry (which has very similar manufacturing processes and utilizes dangerous chemicals) to estimate that solar-panel manufacture would cause one death per year. So 51,999 lives saved per year. Easy.
The problem was that the starting value of 52,000 was a rounded figure with only two significant figures and now, suddenly, it had five. I went back to the 2013 research, and the original figure was 52,200 deaths a year. And that was already a bit of a guess (for all you stats fans, the value of 52,200 had a 90 per cent confidence interval of 23,400 to 94,300). The 2013 research into coal-power deaths had rounded this figure to 52,000 but, if we un-round it back to 52,200, then solar power can save 52,199 lives! We just saved an extra two hundred people!
I can see why, for political reasons, the figure of 51,999 was used – to draw attention to the single expected death from solar-panel production and so to emphasize how safe it is. And that extra precision does make a number look more authoritative. The reduced precision in a rounded number makes them also feel less accurate, even though that is often not the case. Those zeros on the end may also be part of the precision. One in a million people will unknowingly live exactly a whole number of kilometres (door to door) from work, accurate to the nearest millimetre. (c)
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In February 2017 the BBC reported a recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that in the last three months of 2016 ‘UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million people.’ But this change of seven thousand is well below what the number 1.6 million had been rounded to. Mathematician Matthew Scroggs was quick to point out that the BBC was basically saying that unemployment had gone from 1.6 million to 1.6 million. (c)
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Simply telling people not to make any mistakes is a naive way to try to avoid accidents and disasters. James Reason is an Emeritus Professor of Psychology at the University of Manchester whose research is on human error. He put forward the Swiss Cheese model of disasters, which looks at the whole system, instead of focusing on individual people.
The Swiss Cheese model looks at how ‘defenses, barriers, and safeguards may be penetrated by an accident trajectory’. This accident trajectory imagines accidents as similar to a barrage of stones being thrown at a system: only the ones which make it all the way through result in a disaster. Within the system are multiple layers, each with their own defences and safeguards to slow mistakes. But each layer has holes. They are like slices of Swiss cheese.
I love this view of accident management because it acknowledges that people will inevitably make mistakes a certain percentage of the time. The pragmatic approach is to acknowledge this and build a system robust enough to filter mistakes out before they become disasters. When a disaster occurs, it is a system-wide failure and it may not be fair to find a single human to take the blame. (c)
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It is my uninformed impression that in some industries, such as medicine and finance, which do tend to blame the individual, ignoring the whole system can lead to a culture of not admitting mistakes when they happen. Which, ironically, makes the system less able to deal with them. (c)