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The Great Rupture: Three Empires, Four Turning Points, and the Future of Humanity
Do we need to be free to be innovative, prosperous, or even happy?
The lessons of the last five centuries were unequivocal-without freedom, there could be no prosperity or happiness. However, does this still hold true in the Information Age?
Modern technologies are disrupting our societies, altering every facet of our lives, from the nature of work and what we intrinsically value, to how we are informed, entertained, and educated-it promises to be a far deeper disruption than Industrial Revolutions. Humanity is at a major turning point, and how we respond to the merger of technology and financialization will decide our future. Will it be capitalism or communism, feudalism or despotism?
By learning from the past and projecting into the future, global market strategist Viktor Shvets explores the weakening nexus between freedom and prosperity and what that means for the future of humanity. From the birth of our modern world, pivotal events in human history have led to the collapse of non-Western civilizations-Mongol warriors sweeping across Eurasian steppes; the Black Death and a re-awakening of human spirit; Zheng He's voyages and the collapse of Novgorod republic; and finally, the ban on printing in Arabic. What can we learn from these events to better prepare ourselves for the future?
As we hurtle toward that uncertain future, we must decide whether our cherished individual freedoms are still necessary for success and prosperity, or if in adapting to new technologies, non-Western civilizations are now better positioned for this new world, creating illiberal orders that might no longer suffer from stagnation of ideas. For the first time in at least five centuries, we have an opportunity and tools to build a different society and economy. Will we embrace the challenge?
The lessons of the last five centuries were unequivocal-without freedom, there could be no prosperity or happiness. However, does this still hold true in the Information Age?
Modern technologies are disrupting our societies, altering every facet of our lives, from the nature of work and what we intrinsically value, to how we are informed, entertained, and educated-it promises to be a far deeper disruption than Industrial Revolutions. Humanity is at a major turning point, and how we respond to the merger of technology and financialization will decide our future. Will it be capitalism or communism, feudalism or despotism?
By learning from the past and projecting into the future, global market strategist Viktor Shvets explores the weakening nexus between freedom and prosperity and what that means for the future of humanity. From the birth of our modern world, pivotal events in human history have led to the collapse of non-Western civilizations-Mongol warriors sweeping across Eurasian steppes; the Black Death and a re-awakening of human spirit; Zheng He's voyages and the collapse of Novgorod republic; and finally, the ban on printing in Arabic. What can we learn from these events to better prepare ourselves for the future?
As we hurtle toward that uncertain future, we must decide whether our cherished individual freedoms are still necessary for success and prosperity, or if in adapting to new technologies, non-Western civilizations are now better positioned for this new world, creating illiberal orders that might no longer suffer from stagnation of ideas. For the first time in at least five centuries, we have an opportunity and tools to build a different society and economy. Will we embrace the challenge?
294 pages, Hardcover
Published June 24, 2020
106 people are currently reading
852 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 28 of 28 reviews
November 7, 2022
An eye-opening and entertaining book! This is arguably my favorite topic—a mix of technology, societies, and macroeconomics—, so you might expect some bias in the review. Viktor starts by giving you some amazing historical arguments as to why civilizations prospered or failed—he focuses on the Ottomans, the Chinese, and the Russians—, and while doing so he presents three turning points—the Black Death, the Mongols, and the Renaissance—that made the West the winner of them all. After this amazing and enjoyable detour, he takes you to the present and explains what changes society will face—the biggest one being the massive unemployment we’re about to experience—and proposes some solutions to the problem. In a more personal note the book is full of references to other books I’ve read, this made it very enjoyable, and the arguments are presented in a very concise and racional way. The main question that Viktor tries to answer through all this is if we need freedom, as we did in the past, to prosper as a civilization.
March 13, 2024
There’s a snowball’s chance in the Arctic that The Great Rupture will be my choice for book of the year in 2023. The Rupture combines a glutton’s dollop of history with a basketful of grounded predictions about the tech-estation that’s going to define the next few decades. My humble advice is to read this book…
To summarize in a sentence: The Great Rupture explains why countries like China and Russia failed to develop along the lines of the prosperous West, followed by a prediction of how our world will change as the information age redefines what it means to work and contribute to society.
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I originally published this review on my Substack The Unhedged Capitalist - check out that article to read this review with images and better formatting...
https://theunhedgedcapitalist.substac...
-------
100 Years of Solitude is the story of Macondo, a small town in the South American that existed well before our time. One of the first chapters sees a tribe of nomadic Gypsies arrive, bearing fantastic novelties and powerful knowledge. The Gypsies delight the townspeople with magnets, shock them with fireworks and hold them captive with billowing clouds of colorful smoke produced from chemical interactions. In short, the Gypsies expose the residents of Macondo to new technology and the stories of discovery reverberate in living rooms and saloons for years.
Fast forward through time; dead and buried now are the citizens of Macondo who were children when the Gypsies first danced through the avenues. As society atrophied the elders stopped passing down knowledge and an entire class of revelation was lost. Upon their eventual return the Gypsies, who’ve maintained knowledge, are surprised to find that once again they can arouse great fervor with the same magic that they’d delighted the townspeople with 100 years previous. Ignorance had wiped clean society’s slate in Macondo.
For reasons I don’t fully understand I found the loss of technology to be one of the most emotionally devastating themes in a book that hits like a sledgehammer.
This I bring to you as a way of introducing The Great Rupture, and a similar scene that Viktor Shvets lays at the reader’s door: a sub-theme of cultural decomposition as nations choose stagnation over development. Case in point China, which was the first country to invent a primitive form of the printing press followed by cutting edge sailing ships. At one point China swaggered around South Asia in their massive junks, projecting power and collecting royalties from obsequious neighbors.
Unfortunately, around the 15th century China elected to close itself off to the world. The great ships were left to rot and technical skills were forgotten to time. Hundreds of years later Western traders would delight the Chinese with inventions that the Chinese themselves had already discovered in prior era, but had failed to keep alive! The decay and regression of civilization.
Why would a nation shun innovation, dismiss technology and slink back down the ladder of evolution? To find out you’ll have to read the book… While I’m going to share several quotes from The Great Rupture, it’s only the veneer on the tabletop. To conduct this review I’ll bring together three timelines from The Great Rupture: past, present and future.
The past
The Rupture tells the historical story primarily through the framework of Russia, the Ottoman empire and China, as compared to “the west.” Viktor asks the question: why did the west choose a path of continual development and technological adaptation, while these other empires chose isolation and a shunning of innovation? In the 15th century…
* The Chinese were arguably the most advanced mariners of the age, and they used their towering ships to negotiate trade deals and patronage from nearby countries
* Science was flourishing in the middle east and Arabic scholars were at the forefront of academic achievement. The Ottoman empire was well-poised to lead the way in scientific advancement
* The Novgorod Republic region, in what is now north-west Russia, was a bastion of merchants and liberal attitudes, at least what constituted liberalism at the time
In many ways these empires were ahead of the west in the 15th century, and had the potential to maintain or expand their position. So what happened? I lived in Russia for a year and I can tell you firsthand that today’s America kicks Russia’s ass in just about every metric (apart from perhaps the number of beautiful women). If Russia and America started in roughly the same place 500 years ago, they’ve ended up at very different destinations.
The Ottoman empire banned the printing of Arabic texts, the Chinese banned foreign trade while the emerging Russia empire swallowed the Novgorod Republic and replaced its liberal tendencies with an autocratic governance structure. Authoritarian rule and the desire to keep society safe and static prevented these empires from keeping up with the “freer” west.
It is beyond the scope of this review to explain the myriad of reasons that these empires chose putrefaction over progress, suffice to say that in the moment the reasoning appeared rational. As per the following quote, we could say that the “underlying heartbeat” is a fear of change. Better to hold onto the today’s mess than to take a chance on tomorrow’s horror.
The present
As a teenager growing up in Kiev (the USSR is still a going concern) ,Viktor Shvets is given a radio and instructed that if he’s going to listen to foreign stations he should only do so quietly and at night. Viktor asks,
Clearly a society that punishes teenagers for listening to foreign radio stations ought to do some soul searching. Today’s China, Russia and Turkey (representing the deprecated Ottoman empire) all have a standard of living well below the west. Viktor attributes much of that inferiority to despotic rule and close-minded institutions.
That being said, the west is now facing its own problems. Here’s Viktor describing falling productivity in a statement that bears striking similarity to themes I covered in my review of The Rise and Fall of American Growth.
Viktor proposes that our unnatural levels of indebtedness and hyper-financialized economy are tools we’ve used to paper over a decline in productivity. Furthermore, it’s not only absolute productivity that matters, but the rate of change.
Productivity has been slowing for decades in the west. Our institutions are fraying faster than cheap sweaters, and numerous polls have shown that the younger generations don’t believe in democracy the same way the old timers do. There is clear support from the millennials for a strongman leader, and this comes at a time when we’re about to enter into a period of unprecedented technological development. How’s this all going to work out? Are liberal democracies going to survive?
The future
It’s worth reading the Rupture just to hear Viktor Shvets describe the future. Viktor’s key argument is that AI is going to reach the point that it becomes “good enough” to fill any number of roles. At risk of redundancy are accountants, paralegals, computer programmers, managers, writers, graphic designers and many others. The implementation of AI will lead to tens of millions of layoffs, and a new class of people who can’t find work anywhere because the jobs no longer exist.
In regards to the AI revolution Viktor makes the incontrovertible assertion that automation and AI are going to lead to discord and explosive societal tension. For example, there is a classic joke in the crypto community that if you fail as a trader degenerate speculator you can always get a job at McDonald’s.
However, America’s most popular restaurant recently unveiled a mostly automated branch.* In the brave new future we’re hurtling towards you won’t even be able to get a job as a cashier insult sponge at the obesity factory. What will society look like then?
*The line cooks are still Homo sapiens, for now…
The Rupture ends with Viktor asking: are the western liberal democracies going to provide the best governance structures to manage the AI transition, or might the authoritarian regimes be better suited to the task? For example, Viktor imagines a scenario in which AI runs a planned economy that is more efficient than Adam Smith’s invisible hand. If total AI control turns out to be the best method of generating growth, then after centuries of embarrassing results the authoritarian regimes might finally be in a place to outperform the west.
While Viktor offers several half-hearted guesses as to the outcome of CCP vs. Senate in the case of AI rule, ultimately my interpretation of his message is that we just don’t know. There are so many factors at play that trying to predict AI’s role and effect on government response is nearly impossible. If we find democratic solutions that allow us to keep our societies intact during this difficult transition, then the information revolution could lead to another 500 year golden age for the west. If not, well… I hear reeducation camps are actually quite fun if you have the right attitude.
To summarize in a sentence: The Great Rupture explains why countries like China and Russia failed to develop along the lines of the prosperous West, followed by a prediction of how our world will change as the information age redefines what it means to work and contribute to society.
-------
I originally published this review on my Substack The Unhedged Capitalist - check out that article to read this review with images and better formatting...
https://theunhedgedcapitalist.substac...
-------
100 Years of Solitude is the story of Macondo, a small town in the South American that existed well before our time. One of the first chapters sees a tribe of nomadic Gypsies arrive, bearing fantastic novelties and powerful knowledge. The Gypsies delight the townspeople with magnets, shock them with fireworks and hold them captive with billowing clouds of colorful smoke produced from chemical interactions. In short, the Gypsies expose the residents of Macondo to new technology and the stories of discovery reverberate in living rooms and saloons for years.
Fast forward through time; dead and buried now are the citizens of Macondo who were children when the Gypsies first danced through the avenues. As society atrophied the elders stopped passing down knowledge and an entire class of revelation was lost. Upon their eventual return the Gypsies, who’ve maintained knowledge, are surprised to find that once again they can arouse great fervor with the same magic that they’d delighted the townspeople with 100 years previous. Ignorance had wiped clean society’s slate in Macondo.
For reasons I don’t fully understand I found the loss of technology to be one of the most emotionally devastating themes in a book that hits like a sledgehammer.
This I bring to you as a way of introducing The Great Rupture, and a similar scene that Viktor Shvets lays at the reader’s door: a sub-theme of cultural decomposition as nations choose stagnation over development. Case in point China, which was the first country to invent a primitive form of the printing press followed by cutting edge sailing ships. At one point China swaggered around South Asia in their massive junks, projecting power and collecting royalties from obsequious neighbors.
Unfortunately, around the 15th century China elected to close itself off to the world. The great ships were left to rot and technical skills were forgotten to time. Hundreds of years later Western traders would delight the Chinese with inventions that the Chinese themselves had already discovered in prior era, but had failed to keep alive! The decay and regression of civilization.
Why would a nation shun innovation, dismiss technology and slink back down the ladder of evolution? To find out you’ll have to read the book… While I’m going to share several quotes from The Great Rupture, it’s only the veneer on the tabletop. To conduct this review I’ll bring together three timelines from The Great Rupture: past, present and future.
The past
The Rupture tells the historical story primarily through the framework of Russia, the Ottoman empire and China, as compared to “the west.” Viktor asks the question: why did the west choose a path of continual development and technological adaptation, while these other empires chose isolation and a shunning of innovation? In the 15th century…
* The Chinese were arguably the most advanced mariners of the age, and they used their towering ships to negotiate trade deals and patronage from nearby countries
* Science was flourishing in the middle east and Arabic scholars were at the forefront of academic achievement. The Ottoman empire was well-poised to lead the way in scientific advancement
* The Novgorod Republic region, in what is now north-west Russia, was a bastion of merchants and liberal attitudes, at least what constituted liberalism at the time
In many ways these empires were ahead of the west in the 15th century, and had the potential to maintain or expand their position. So what happened? I lived in Russia for a year and I can tell you firsthand that today’s America kicks Russia’s ass in just about every metric (apart from perhaps the number of beautiful women). If Russia and America started in roughly the same place 500 years ago, they’ve ended up at very different destinations.
The Ottoman empire banned the printing of Arabic texts, the Chinese banned foreign trade while the emerging Russia empire swallowed the Novgorod Republic and replaced its liberal tendencies with an autocratic governance structure. Authoritarian rule and the desire to keep society safe and static prevented these empires from keeping up with the “freer” west.
In order to be productive and prosperous, societies must be free. It was the lack of freedom that condemned all non-Western societies to misery, irrelevance, and sometimes to political disintegration. It was freedom that enabled San Francisco to prosper while its absence condemned Vladivostok.
It is beyond the scope of this review to explain the myriad of reasons that these empires chose putrefaction over progress, suffice to say that in the moment the reasoning appeared rational. As per the following quote, we could say that the “underlying heartbeat” is a fear of change. Better to hold onto the today’s mess than to take a chance on tomorrow’s horror.
It is true that political scientists and economists tend to overanalyze reasons for certain actions (trying to find some underlying logic), or, as Emerson wisely advised, “in analyzing history do not be too profound, for often the causes are quite superficial.” Nevertheless, there is always an “underlying heartbeat” that despite all the noise points to the core driving force that, while not making a “folly” inevitable, certainly predispose societies and their leaders toward it.
The present
As a teenager growing up in Kiev (the USSR is still a going concern) ,Viktor Shvets is given a radio and instructed that if he’s going to listen to foreign stations he should only do so quietly and at night. Viktor asks,
What state penalizes a teenager for listening to foreign radio stations, and what price do they ultimately pay? On the other hand, why do others [states] embark on a different course and develop much freer and more prosperous societies?
Clearly a society that punishes teenagers for listening to foreign radio stations ought to do some soul searching. Today’s China, Russia and Turkey (representing the deprecated Ottoman empire) all have a standard of living well below the west. Viktor attributes much of that inferiority to despotic rule and close-minded institutions.
That being said, the west is now facing its own problems. Here’s Viktor describing falling productivity in a statement that bears striking similarity to themes I covered in my review of The Rise and Fall of American Growth.
I argue that it was a secular slowdown in global productivity that commenced in the mid-to-late 1970s and accelerated into the 1980s-2000s that forced societies to choose whether to accept slower growth and lower long-term pay structures (reflecting lower productivity) or whether people would continue to be rewarded, albeit in a different form. In other words, instead of income, societies decided that wealth would be created through asset prices and leveraging.
Viktor proposes that our unnatural levels of indebtedness and hyper-financialized economy are tools we’ve used to paper over a decline in productivity. Furthermore, it’s not only absolute productivity that matters, but the rate of change.
The key to most political, societal, and economic behavior is to be found in the pace of change in marginal utility and pricing power. As psychologists (from Maslow to Myers-Briggs) highlighted, it is our perception of our worth and our relative positioning within the group that determines how we feel about ourselves, societies, and pretty much everything else.
Productivity has been slowing for decades in the west. Our institutions are fraying faster than cheap sweaters, and numerous polls have shown that the younger generations don’t believe in democracy the same way the old timers do. There is clear support from the millennials for a strongman leader, and this comes at a time when we’re about to enter into a period of unprecedented technological development. How’s this all going to work out? Are liberal democracies going to survive?
The future
It’s worth reading the Rupture just to hear Viktor Shvets describe the future. Viktor’s key argument is that AI is going to reach the point that it becomes “good enough” to fill any number of roles. At risk of redundancy are accountants, paralegals, computer programmers, managers, writers, graphic designers and many others. The implementation of AI will lead to tens of millions of layoffs, and a new class of people who can’t find work anywhere because the jobs no longer exist.
Over the next decade or two, almost all occupations will experience a sinking feeling of declining functionality and marginal pricing power. However, even that will not be the end of the story, as doctors, lawyers, educators, composers, and writers will also be swept into the same maelstrom of irrelevance. By the time a truck driver or a PhD in computer science feel that their contribution is eroding, it is doubtful that there will be any other jobs that will still be available for them.
In regards to the AI revolution Viktor makes the incontrovertible assertion that automation and AI are going to lead to discord and explosive societal tension. For example, there is a classic joke in the crypto community that if you fail as a trader degenerate speculator you can always get a job at McDonald’s.
However, America’s most popular restaurant recently unveiled a mostly automated branch.* In the brave new future we’re hurtling towards you won’t even be able to get a job as a cashier insult sponge at the obesity factory. What will society look like then?
*The line cooks are still Homo sapiens, for now…
The Rupture ends with Viktor asking: are the western liberal democracies going to provide the best governance structures to manage the AI transition, or might the authoritarian regimes be better suited to the task? For example, Viktor imagines a scenario in which AI runs a planned economy that is more efficient than Adam Smith’s invisible hand. If total AI control turns out to be the best method of generating growth, then after centuries of embarrassing results the authoritarian regimes might finally be in a place to outperform the west.
While Viktor offers several half-hearted guesses as to the outcome of CCP vs. Senate in the case of AI rule, ultimately my interpretation of his message is that we just don’t know. There are so many factors at play that trying to predict AI’s role and effect on government response is nearly impossible. If we find democratic solutions that allow us to keep our societies intact during this difficult transition, then the information revolution could lead to another 500 year golden age for the west. If not, well… I hear reeducation camps are actually quite fun if you have the right attitude.
December 7, 2020
This book’s full title is The Great Rupture: Three Empires, Four Turning Points, and the Future of Humanity. Do we need to be Free? He has a web site here that you can explore. You can explore the major themes of the book. If you find this interesting, you might want to get the book to read.
The site Book Authority list this book as one of the 16 Best New Economic Development Books To Read In 2021. The site The Capital Spectator features this book and other economic books.
This book is rather depressing in the end as he thinks that we do not need to be free. The West will end up like China. 1984 here we come. We here in Canada, the US and EU all seem to be going left and socialist. However, Margaret Thatcher was right. Socialism only last as long as there is other people’s money to spend. Politian’s are all talking about taxing the rich to pay for all our desires. This will end badly.
Only the Nordic counties have a form of socialism that works. But everyone pays a large part of their earnings. The Nordics are also quite capitalistic. They have little in the way of corruption. On the other hand, Canada, US, and EU are filled with extractive elites. We also have huge tech companies that are sucking every last bit of data they can from us to monetize.
He thinks that AI will make it possible to control markets better than a free market system or capitalism. I worked with computers my whole adult life and any AI so far is just algorithms. Any AI will take process to a logical conclusion. AI will never think that just because they can do something should they? AI with Algorithms will never question their answers as to whether they make any sense. They could come up with stupid answers and never know that. Stupid answers are something a human can easily recognize. At least we are good at that. However, under communism people would not dare say anything the party thought up was stupid, so we may have that problem with AI. Sounds like this is what is happening in China currently.
Of course, the future is going to be different than the past. It has always been that way. I understand where he is going because of the changes our current technology is making in our lives. However, he paints a very bleak picture of our future and I do not believe that. However, we should be thinking about the future and how we will handle and adapt to a future of technology that is coming. Trying to deny new technology has not worked in the past and will not work now.
He paints a good picture of the past history and how we ended up where we are. Why certain countries are ahead. This will give you a great economic view of why the west is currently ahead. This book is well worth reading for this coverage of the past. The future is harder to know. We are going ahead to a very different future. He wonders if non-western cultures are better suited to our coming future. It is an interesting question. Whatever happens, we are certainly in for turmoil and disruptions with the new technology coming in the future.
There is a good review of this book on African Eye Report. There is a post on this book by John Aidan Byrne on GRIPT. This includes a review of the book and a podcast interview with Viktor Shvets. Alan Kohler at Eureka Report interviews Viktor Shvets. This is a podcast, plus also they show the full podcast in print. On the John Tread Gold website there is an review of this book and a interview podcast with Viktor Shvets.
There is an interview with Viktor Shvets by Gareth Vaughan on Interest. This is a good interview and Viktor Shvets views of the future is not so bleak. Viktor Shvets is interviewed on BNN. This is from August 2019. Viktor Shvets is part of the Macquarie Group, a Sydney-based investment bank. He is Managing Director at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. On Hamilton Wealth Partners Viktor Shvets speaks about his book through the Though Leaders Series.
The site Book Authority list this book as one of the 16 Best New Economic Development Books To Read In 2021. The site The Capital Spectator features this book and other economic books.
This book is rather depressing in the end as he thinks that we do not need to be free. The West will end up like China. 1984 here we come. We here in Canada, the US and EU all seem to be going left and socialist. However, Margaret Thatcher was right. Socialism only last as long as there is other people’s money to spend. Politian’s are all talking about taxing the rich to pay for all our desires. This will end badly.
Only the Nordic counties have a form of socialism that works. But everyone pays a large part of their earnings. The Nordics are also quite capitalistic. They have little in the way of corruption. On the other hand, Canada, US, and EU are filled with extractive elites. We also have huge tech companies that are sucking every last bit of data they can from us to monetize.
He thinks that AI will make it possible to control markets better than a free market system or capitalism. I worked with computers my whole adult life and any AI so far is just algorithms. Any AI will take process to a logical conclusion. AI will never think that just because they can do something should they? AI with Algorithms will never question their answers as to whether they make any sense. They could come up with stupid answers and never know that. Stupid answers are something a human can easily recognize. At least we are good at that. However, under communism people would not dare say anything the party thought up was stupid, so we may have that problem with AI. Sounds like this is what is happening in China currently.
Of course, the future is going to be different than the past. It has always been that way. I understand where he is going because of the changes our current technology is making in our lives. However, he paints a very bleak picture of our future and I do not believe that. However, we should be thinking about the future and how we will handle and adapt to a future of technology that is coming. Trying to deny new technology has not worked in the past and will not work now.
He paints a good picture of the past history and how we ended up where we are. Why certain countries are ahead. This will give you a great economic view of why the west is currently ahead. This book is well worth reading for this coverage of the past. The future is harder to know. We are going ahead to a very different future. He wonders if non-western cultures are better suited to our coming future. It is an interesting question. Whatever happens, we are certainly in for turmoil and disruptions with the new technology coming in the future.
There is a good review of this book on African Eye Report. There is a post on this book by John Aidan Byrne on GRIPT. This includes a review of the book and a podcast interview with Viktor Shvets. Alan Kohler at Eureka Report interviews Viktor Shvets. This is a podcast, plus also they show the full podcast in print. On the John Tread Gold website there is an review of this book and a interview podcast with Viktor Shvets.
There is an interview with Viktor Shvets by Gareth Vaughan on Interest. This is a good interview and Viktor Shvets views of the future is not so bleak. Viktor Shvets is interviewed on BNN. This is from August 2019. Viktor Shvets is part of the Macquarie Group, a Sydney-based investment bank. He is Managing Director at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. On Hamilton Wealth Partners Viktor Shvets speaks about his book through the Though Leaders Series.
January 29, 2022
Once more, this author offers more Socialist Utopia. And below the shallow polish, there is the same skeleton: generalized robbery perpetrated by an elite nucleus, obviously for the sake of the ”disenfranchised”, the same Gulag alternative for those who refuse to comply, the same lack of enough daily calories for the people who do not have the special ration card.
February 15, 2022
Entertaining, thought provoking and a bit scary, I had a wonderful time reading this book!
July 2, 2024
A great book about history and economics that explains why the West outpaced all other empires from the Renaissance to the present, attributing this success to freedom and capitalism, which drove progress and innovation. It also discusses the significant mistakes made by other empires during these times. In the final part, the book explores why the West may not necessarily have the upper hand in the information era due to potential economic changes caused by powerful technologies. A great read definitely, I also liked that the book quotes and discusses the opinions of some of my favorite authors and philosophers.
September 5, 2020
This book - as with most of Victors work, is not only painting a very likely future, but it is
very scary future we are facing.
Having read a lot of Victors research, he does come across as the most thoughtful analyst I know,
the intelligence in the writings are immense.
Being an "old school" classic macro analyst has come well into this play, as Victor understand the ramifications of the technological revolution which is only in its beginning.
There is a super-cycle coming, it will impact everyone on planet earth, and this book should be mandatory read in any parliament.
I will gladly recommend it to anyone interested in what may lie ahead.
very scary future we are facing.
Having read a lot of Victors research, he does come across as the most thoughtful analyst I know,
the intelligence in the writings are immense.
Being an "old school" classic macro analyst has come well into this play, as Victor understand the ramifications of the technological revolution which is only in its beginning.
There is a super-cycle coming, it will impact everyone on planet earth, and this book should be mandatory read in any parliament.
I will gladly recommend it to anyone interested in what may lie ahead.
January 3, 2021
This is a very important book. Written before Trump's trade wars, the global virus outbreak, and teh technological decoupling between the big blocks, it already pointed the way to a future that was less liberal than what most readers would have imagined possible. The speed of the transformation into an "illiberal world order" may have seemed impossible, yet it is occurring smoothly and broadly without much opposition. While the author's own life experience places him in an ideal position to look from great heights at these momentous transformations, it still takes courage to commit to print such bold thesis that seemed at the time so implausible. If anything merits criticism is that this book is actually 3-in-1. Each of the author's analyses of the past, the present and the future merits to be expanded into a book of its own. But that I hope is something we can look forward to in the years ahead. Many thanks for such a fine read!! Stefano QC
June 28, 2021
This is a must read book for anyone serious about their future looking point-of-view. The research and sources are impeccable. The Great Rupture was not an easy read mostly because I needed to stop and thinking about every few paragraphs. To say that Shvets' book is thought provoking fails to express the importance of the thoughts it provokes. I like Shvets' style of leading me to conclusions rather than the more typical approach of defending conclusions. I don't necessarily agree with many of his conclusions but that doesn't diminish its importance.
March 2, 2021
Differentiated insights on the Ottoman , Chinese and Russian empires. Clever analysis of the twin forces of financialisation and technology that have conspired to get us to where we find ourselves in 2021. The book is well worth reading for just these two sets of analysis . I wasn’t convinced there was a compelling logic in linking them and one certainly hopes the future turns out better than he fears . But none of this mars an incredibly thought provoking read
April 14, 2021
It took me a long time to read this but I'm glad I stuck it out. The last section was clearly the most fascinating. His views on history were interesting but his thoughts on the future were riveting. I couldn't pit it down at the end. This was a borrowed copy so I have ordered my own so I can go back over the last sections and annotate them. I will use some of these sections as readings for my Theory of Knowledge classes at school. Excellent read!
August 15, 2020
Viktor brings diversity of thought from a wide number of fields to paint a picture of where we really are and what we need to do to move forward.
The first half discusses political and economic history relating two critical events over the centuries. The second half ties the past to the present. Gives you a glimpse of what the future holds and the decisions that need to be made.
The first half discusses political and economic history relating two critical events over the centuries. The second half ties the past to the present. Gives you a glimpse of what the future holds and the decisions that need to be made.
July 16, 2025
A must read. Viktor Shvets is the Harari of Economics, with a huge World History background.
January 31, 2022
Topics covered in this book are eye-opening only negative point author repeats himself at times.
February 19, 2022
an interesting take on why the west came out on top and where civilization is going in the digital age
November 21, 2021
Excellent book
May 26, 2024
What did the Russian, Ottoman and Chinese empires share in common in the 15th and 20th Centuries? In the 15th century all three shunned the reforms and progress of the trading world. What followed was a multi-century decline, culminating with the collapse of all three empires within the span of a mere decade in the 20th century (1912 to 1922).
In comparison, the open “West” thrived in the wake of the industrial revolution(s) despite regular setbacks and achieved global dominance in economic, political and intellectual spheres.
Author Viktor Shvets follows Confucius advice to “study history if you would divine the future”, and takes us on a meticulously researched historic journey in order to consider the future. In his opinion, “the world is on the cusp of…(a) major turning point that in a matter of decades will reshape every human society on the planet.”
In The Great Rupture, Shvets spends more than half the book dissecting the circumstances and consequences of the historic decisions made by the three great empires compared to the west. It makes for enlightening reading, so I will leave it to the reader to derive their own satisfaction from this first half.
I have focused on what Shvets sees ahead. In Shvets’ view, there are two main drivers that are leading to a near-future turning point. The first is a New Information Age in the form of robotics and artificial intelligence.
“Just as the Digital Revolution altered music, entertainment, information gathering and financial services, the next ten to fifteen years will witness a massive change in how we build houses,…manufacture and distribute products, who is going to greet us when we arrive at hotels, who will perform our open heart surgery or looks after us when we age.”
The second driver acts as a multiplier on the first. The high level of indebtedness and the toxic financialization of the economy has led to financial instruments ballooning to up to ten times the global GDP (compared to around one times in the 1980s). All of this has resulted in a very fragile system with an excess of cheap capital looking for a home. And what better home than the acceleration of automation to reduce the cost or even the need for labour?
Shvets suggests a number of policies in response to the upcoming disruptions, such as minimum income guarantees, restructuring education institutions, and redesigning competition rules. However the more valuable contribution comes from his exploration of the dilemmas that western societies face. Among these are the degradation of democracy and rule of law, the power of data and (mis)information, demography, the role of employment, and the value of freedom.
These challenges are so significant that according to Shvets, they will overwhelm concerns over climate. Schvets’ conclusion is there is a coming “darkness before dawn” with a protracted several-decades-long painful birth of a new world.
I recommend Viktor Shvets’ The Great Rupture as a timely piece which gives both a fascinating and detailed history lesson but also a glimpse of the uncomfortable and disruptive few decades ahead.
Full Review here https://courtofthegrandchildren.com/t...
In comparison, the open “West” thrived in the wake of the industrial revolution(s) despite regular setbacks and achieved global dominance in economic, political and intellectual spheres.
Author Viktor Shvets follows Confucius advice to “study history if you would divine the future”, and takes us on a meticulously researched historic journey in order to consider the future. In his opinion, “the world is on the cusp of…(a) major turning point that in a matter of decades will reshape every human society on the planet.”
In The Great Rupture, Shvets spends more than half the book dissecting the circumstances and consequences of the historic decisions made by the three great empires compared to the west. It makes for enlightening reading, so I will leave it to the reader to derive their own satisfaction from this first half.
I have focused on what Shvets sees ahead. In Shvets’ view, there are two main drivers that are leading to a near-future turning point. The first is a New Information Age in the form of robotics and artificial intelligence.
“Just as the Digital Revolution altered music, entertainment, information gathering and financial services, the next ten to fifteen years will witness a massive change in how we build houses,…manufacture and distribute products, who is going to greet us when we arrive at hotels, who will perform our open heart surgery or looks after us when we age.”
The second driver acts as a multiplier on the first. The high level of indebtedness and the toxic financialization of the economy has led to financial instruments ballooning to up to ten times the global GDP (compared to around one times in the 1980s). All of this has resulted in a very fragile system with an excess of cheap capital looking for a home. And what better home than the acceleration of automation to reduce the cost or even the need for labour?
Shvets suggests a number of policies in response to the upcoming disruptions, such as minimum income guarantees, restructuring education institutions, and redesigning competition rules. However the more valuable contribution comes from his exploration of the dilemmas that western societies face. Among these are the degradation of democracy and rule of law, the power of data and (mis)information, demography, the role of employment, and the value of freedom.
These challenges are so significant that according to Shvets, they will overwhelm concerns over climate. Schvets’ conclusion is there is a coming “darkness before dawn” with a protracted several-decades-long painful birth of a new world.
I recommend Viktor Shvets’ The Great Rupture as a timely piece which gives both a fascinating and detailed history lesson but also a glimpse of the uncomfortable and disruptive few decades ahead.
Full Review here https://courtofthegrandchildren.com/t...
August 3, 2021
I heard Viktor talk on a podcast I listen to, he seemed to have a very well informed view of the world and where it might be headed, so I wanted to read more from him. It wasn't really that great. Well the writing is good, but you don't actually get the payoff.
The book is really in two parts: the history, and the present, with like one or two paragraphs about the future.
I found the historical section interesting on it's own. It is well reasoned and draws on both historical fact and the author's life experience. But, it doesn't really connect to the 2nd part of the book other than to make the point that key turning points in history can have massive ramifications down the line. But that is an obvious lesson of history.
When describing the current milieu he effectively starts at the 70s and when technology and financialization started. It didn't pick up speed and hit the steep part of the exponential curve until the 80s though. And which generation was that? The Boomers. If anyone wants to read a pop-psych critique of Boomers go read Boomeritis by Wilbur it sums it up nicely. But in short Boomers... the me generation, who if they had a catch phrase it would be "you can't tell me what to do." And no one did, they reinvented everything, but caused a lot of collateral damage in the process.
More than a few times Viktor says "even more so Gen-X" then lumps them in with the Boomers. He's being intellectually lazy. As a Gen-X myself we aren't just a long tail of the Boomers. We are quite disaffected by what that generation did, we could already see it was not sustainable.
We have more generational stuff, this time about Millennials:
"they were objects of what most likely would be described as “bad parenting.” The independent Baby Boomers were trying to create “winners” out of their children by providing the most nurturing environment. Instead, they have created greater dependency rather than the hoped-for independence. Helicopter parenting, Megan Laws, childproof homes, SAT tutors, and “prizes for losers” have all become the hallmarks of the new age for the younger Western generations."
Then you send them to school for useless degrees where they learn about lovely things like neo-Marxism, post modernism, intersectionality, etc. Look what the Boomers have wrought.
Why am I focusing on generational things? Because I think that is largely what is causing the many of the social disruptions of the day. But back to the economic premise, I think generational turnings (1 4th turning?) and waves (Dent's predictions are bunk, but I think his ideas are useful) are what cause these major, but not sudden, shifts.
I keep reading and reading and waiting for the payoff, what's his prediction, his advice for the future? Well there isn't really one. Eventually he does make a "prediction" but it is 100 years off so it's not of much use in our lifetimes, or even for our kids (what education to get for instance). Right near the end he claims the book is a call to arms, but it reads more like a jeremiad.
Very disappointed.
The book is really in two parts: the history, and the present, with like one or two paragraphs about the future.
I found the historical section interesting on it's own. It is well reasoned and draws on both historical fact and the author's life experience. But, it doesn't really connect to the 2nd part of the book other than to make the point that key turning points in history can have massive ramifications down the line. But that is an obvious lesson of history.
When describing the current milieu he effectively starts at the 70s and when technology and financialization started. It didn't pick up speed and hit the steep part of the exponential curve until the 80s though. And which generation was that? The Boomers. If anyone wants to read a pop-psych critique of Boomers go read Boomeritis by Wilbur it sums it up nicely. But in short Boomers... the me generation, who if they had a catch phrase it would be "you can't tell me what to do." And no one did, they reinvented everything, but caused a lot of collateral damage in the process.
More than a few times Viktor says "even more so Gen-X" then lumps them in with the Boomers. He's being intellectually lazy. As a Gen-X myself we aren't just a long tail of the Boomers. We are quite disaffected by what that generation did, we could already see it was not sustainable.
We have more generational stuff, this time about Millennials:
"they were objects of what most likely would be described as “bad parenting.” The independent Baby Boomers were trying to create “winners” out of their children by providing the most nurturing environment. Instead, they have created greater dependency rather than the hoped-for independence. Helicopter parenting, Megan Laws, childproof homes, SAT tutors, and “prizes for losers” have all become the hallmarks of the new age for the younger Western generations."
Then you send them to school for useless degrees where they learn about lovely things like neo-Marxism, post modernism, intersectionality, etc. Look what the Boomers have wrought.
Why am I focusing on generational things? Because I think that is largely what is causing the many of the social disruptions of the day. But back to the economic premise, I think generational turnings (1 4th turning?) and waves (Dent's predictions are bunk, but I think his ideas are useful) are what cause these major, but not sudden, shifts.
I keep reading and reading and waiting for the payoff, what's his prediction, his advice for the future? Well there isn't really one. Eventually he does make a "prediction" but it is 100 years off so it's not of much use in our lifetimes, or even for our kids (what education to get for instance). Right near the end he claims the book is a call to arms, but it reads more like a jeremiad.
Very disappointed.
Read
September 14, 2022This one would have benefited from a tad more editorial intervention.
The first half is dedicated to a rough summary of the decline of the Russian, Chinese, and Ottoman empires - particularly in comparison to the successes of their Western counterparts. This section is pretty uninspiring, Shvets has no academic qualifications whatsoever (according to his LinkedIn page he has worked almost exclusively in the banking industry), and he makes several sweeping statements about large periods of history which should be treated with caution. He does himself no favours with his limited citations, and the amount of airtime given to the big names of macro-history (Noah Yuval Harari, Francis Fukuyama, Jared Diamond, etc). Though Svhets' conclusions as to the causes of each civilisation's respective declines (as well as the success of the West) are to be taken with a grain of salt, it is a pretty easy read, and does give a sense of the rough contours of the history of each region.
The second half concerns the information age, and its potential to reshape human civilisation. Concerns about Shvets' qualifications are much less relevant here - most of the stuff is either uncontroversial statements about the information age (AI is getting better, China is investing more in R&D, etc) or high level speculation about what the consequences of those developments might be. While predictions tend to be wrong more often than not, it was still an interesting read, even if it just made me reflect on the difficult growing pains we are likely to face over the coming decades. This isn't the first book to consider these topics, but it is the first I have read, and did a decent job.
The main problem is that the first half doesn't really connect to the second half at all. The central premise of the book seems to be something along the lines of - sure Western civilisation had succeeded thus far on the back of relative freedom of speech and free market principles (among other things, and according to Shvets), but will these values be useful in the information age? To that end, a portion of the second half considers how China (with its tighter control over the lives of its citizens) might be better placed to accommodate new technological advances. However, this point a) does not need a rehash of Chinese history to make and b) isn't particularly relevant to Russia or the Ottomans at all, because those societies, while arguably oppressive, do not have the economic means nor the technological capabilities of China. It's also a bit unclear where Shvets lands on the whole 'being free' thing, though he points to a bunch of factors that might not align with freedom in the future, he ends the book by noting that there are a bunch of good things about the West which are reasons to be optimistic about the future (assuming you like 'Western' values).
Plenty of interesting thoughts, but could do with more structure and direction, and probably cutting the entire first half.
The first half is dedicated to a rough summary of the decline of the Russian, Chinese, and Ottoman empires - particularly in comparison to the successes of their Western counterparts. This section is pretty uninspiring, Shvets has no academic qualifications whatsoever (according to his LinkedIn page he has worked almost exclusively in the banking industry), and he makes several sweeping statements about large periods of history which should be treated with caution. He does himself no favours with his limited citations, and the amount of airtime given to the big names of macro-history (Noah Yuval Harari, Francis Fukuyama, Jared Diamond, etc). Though Svhets' conclusions as to the causes of each civilisation's respective declines (as well as the success of the West) are to be taken with a grain of salt, it is a pretty easy read, and does give a sense of the rough contours of the history of each region.
The second half concerns the information age, and its potential to reshape human civilisation. Concerns about Shvets' qualifications are much less relevant here - most of the stuff is either uncontroversial statements about the information age (AI is getting better, China is investing more in R&D, etc) or high level speculation about what the consequences of those developments might be. While predictions tend to be wrong more often than not, it was still an interesting read, even if it just made me reflect on the difficult growing pains we are likely to face over the coming decades. This isn't the first book to consider these topics, but it is the first I have read, and did a decent job.
The main problem is that the first half doesn't really connect to the second half at all. The central premise of the book seems to be something along the lines of - sure Western civilisation had succeeded thus far on the back of relative freedom of speech and free market principles (among other things, and according to Shvets), but will these values be useful in the information age? To that end, a portion of the second half considers how China (with its tighter control over the lives of its citizens) might be better placed to accommodate new technological advances. However, this point a) does not need a rehash of Chinese history to make and b) isn't particularly relevant to Russia or the Ottomans at all, because those societies, while arguably oppressive, do not have the economic means nor the technological capabilities of China. It's also a bit unclear where Shvets lands on the whole 'being free' thing, though he points to a bunch of factors that might not align with freedom in the future, he ends the book by noting that there are a bunch of good things about the West which are reasons to be optimistic about the future (assuming you like 'Western' values).
Plenty of interesting thoughts, but could do with more structure and direction, and probably cutting the entire first half.
October 9, 2022
The title or the titles so to say was intriguing thus it jumped my reading list. I found this book on my LinkedIn as i happen to follow the Author who heads strategy Macquarie Bank.
A born Russian but liberal western upbringing and having worked in East brings his perspective comparing with what happened in history and how it changed the course to bring it to where we see it now. Taking cues from those events and how humans behave in similar pattern. He tries to predict that with the advent of Information age where are we leading. With the basic tenets of human ethos changing, he argues that will we as humans bound to be free? Do we need to be controlled to an extent? He starts with a grim picture of times of hoardes of Mongol Invaders attacking Eurasia and ends with grim picture of tumultuous time when two hurricane which have already hit us names financialisation and Information age will change everything and in a painful way. Though author believes that human spirit will triumph but it will be painful.
He confidentally paints bright future for China grim for Russia and Islamic world and suggests that Chinese way is the way forward as Liberal western model had failed.
P.S : IMO Its a very myopic view of world. With a lot limited understanding of humanity. It's like picking one colour of Rainbow and extrapolating it. The possibilities are 256million than just one. Nonetheless it was a very very informative read and answered lot of questions (filling voids) on my understanding of history.
A born Russian but liberal western upbringing and having worked in East brings his perspective comparing with what happened in history and how it changed the course to bring it to where we see it now. Taking cues from those events and how humans behave in similar pattern. He tries to predict that with the advent of Information age where are we leading. With the basic tenets of human ethos changing, he argues that will we as humans bound to be free? Do we need to be controlled to an extent? He starts with a grim picture of times of hoardes of Mongol Invaders attacking Eurasia and ends with grim picture of tumultuous time when two hurricane which have already hit us names financialisation and Information age will change everything and in a painful way. Though author believes that human spirit will triumph but it will be painful.
He confidentally paints bright future for China grim for Russia and Islamic world and suggests that Chinese way is the way forward as Liberal western model had failed.
P.S : IMO Its a very myopic view of world. With a lot limited understanding of humanity. It's like picking one colour of Rainbow and extrapolating it. The possibilities are 256million than just one. Nonetheless it was a very very informative read and answered lot of questions (filling voids) on my understanding of history.
April 16, 2022
Talks about how China, Russia and the Ottomans missed out on Industrial Revolution 1.0 and 2.0 by turning inward and restricting freedom. However, to succeed in the Information Age, one might not require increases in freedom and civil liberty. In other words, rather than China moving towards liberalism, the world could be moving towards China. Communist utopia might well be the end state but dark times lie ahead in the decades to follow. This book is a great source of references and touches on the wider arc of history. If you have read The Silk Road, or Genghis Khan and the making of the modern world, you will cover ground fast.
November 7, 2020
I enjoyed this book. The first half of the book, where Shvets details 3 civilizations and why they fell behind the west, is strong. He does a great job of summarizing and explaining in this section.
The only reason I didn’t give 5 stars is that the last half of the book felt a bit more rushed. The synthesis of the first half of the book and what that can teach us about how the US will handle the Information Age wasn’t tied together as well as it could have been.
Definitely an ambitious work that i learned a lot from. It fell just a bit short in the final section.
The only reason I didn’t give 5 stars is that the last half of the book felt a bit more rushed. The synthesis of the first half of the book and what that can teach us about how the US will handle the Information Age wasn’t tied together as well as it could have been.
Definitely an ambitious work that i learned a lot from. It fell just a bit short in the final section.
March 10, 2024
The first half, in which the author recounts the history of great turning points in the history of 3 empires is fascinating. The second part, in which the author tries to draw conclusions for the future is frustratingly poorly argued and unconvincing. Throughout, the author’s constant teasing of the question ( never convincingly answered) of whether freedom will lead to success in the 21st century is just plain annoying
October 5, 2020
Insightful analysis! I've not read a book quite like this one. Fascinating look at history to help understand where we might be headed. The fujiwhara (as described by the author) effect really does seem to have the potential to reshape society...whether it will be for the better or worse is hard to say.
June 18, 2022
Impressive in its breadth and erudition.
The author has crafted a deeply insightful narrative about the current twin challenges of excessive debt dependence and technological displacement by reviewing key turning historical turning points that drove the outcomes for several major empires. I wholeheartedly recommend this book to anyone who is seeking to better understand the world.
The author has crafted a deeply insightful narrative about the current twin challenges of excessive debt dependence and technological displacement by reviewing key turning historical turning points that drove the outcomes for several major empires. I wholeheartedly recommend this book to anyone who is seeking to better understand the world.
September 22, 2021
throws more punches than it lands
June 29, 2022
Well researched and insightful book that looks back at historical economic events and tries to look forward too at emerging technological disruption. (Kindle).
December 28, 2022
Best book I read this year. Well written and it helped me to internalize how things work in this crazy world we live.
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