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First published January 1, 2004
Jagow [Germany’s foreign minister] noted that Molke [Germany’s chief of staff] told him that in two or three years the “military superiority of our enemies would…be so great that he did not know how he could overcome them. Today we would still be a match for them. In his opinion there was no alternative to making preventive war in order to defeat the enemy while there was still a chance of victory.This book disabuses one of the notions that WWI, The Great War, arrived unexpectedly. There were many factors at work, much politicking. It details the events leading up to the war. I do not have a great familiarity with specifics of what was going in in Europe in the early 20th century, so had no preconceived notions to dispel. Using the usual assassination of Archduke Ferdinand as a starting point, it is clear from the book that his death was merely a pretext. There were many political intrigues afoot at the time. Germany is fingered as the primary culprit. With Russia industrializing, Germany was afraid that its position as the most powerful European power was about to be threatened. The Military (as opposed to political) leaders believed war was inevitable. They thought that if it was going to happen anyway it was to Germany’s advantage to fight earlier rather than later, before Russia gained enough strength to overwhelm them.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire was their vehicle for this. It was important for Germany to see that the dual monarchy remained as a great European Power, for several reasons. First, they needed an ally. Second, Protestant Germany did not want to absorb Catholic Austria, and dilute the power of its rulers. And it needed a buffer state much in the way the West needed Eastern Europe as a buffer against the Soviet Union. The assassination was carried out by an extremist group in Serbia. Germany encouraged A-H to invade Serbia. Their plan was that once Serbia was invaded, Russia would intervene to protect their ally. The German politicians could use this mobilization as an excuse to mobilize against a supposed threat from Russia. A-H would then be forced to shift its troops to its Russian border and therefore the Germans would no longer face a serious threat from the A-H-distracted Russkies. That would leave Germany free to invade their main competitor, France, dispatch them quickly, then return and take care of Russia. A-H, however was not in a real hurry to engage in this war. The Archduke was not a beloved figure and there were many, including in the royal family, who thought the world a better place without him.![]()
David Fromkin - 1932 - 2017
Franz Ferdinand…was a reactionary: he would have liked to turn the calendar back by a century. The Slavs who plotted against him were more reactionary still; they looked back more than five centuries.But, spurred on by German pressure, A-H eventually delivered to Serbia an ultimatum that was so extreme that no self-respecting nation could accede without ceding it’s sovereignty. The ultimatum was designed to be rejected. (Like US demands on Iraq, for example)
What drove France and Russia to join the fray can be covered in a sentence: Germany declared war on them, and they defended themselves. Of the Great Powers that stood together against Germany and Austria in August 1914, only Britain had been allowed the freedom to decide for itself whether to go in or stay out.